“We've got the Lafayette circled as his next spot opening day at Keeneland,” trainer Michelle Lovell said. “We'll see if he'll stretch out to seven furlongs. I think that he will.”

Gelded as a juvenile last September, Doncho lit up the tote board with a powerful, five-length tally in front-running fashion at 21-1 on debut Dec. 30. He earned his 'Rising Star' badge by 4 1/2 lengths–this time as the even-money favorite–with a press-and-pounce victory in an optional claimer Feb. 13. Both performances netted matching 94 Beyer Speed Figures.

“I think he could be anything,” Lovell said. “We've never really asked him for anything yet. Everything that he's done has been on his own.”

She continued, “He hasn't been a surprise because he's been a good horse, but it was a surprise that he went so fast, so easily, in his first race. To come back, I thought that he could win, but you never know, they're babies and they could make mistakes. But he's so professional. So far, everything has gone so well.”

As for the decision to geld Doncho as an unraced 2-year-old last year, Lovell added, “We just thought it was best for him physically and mentally at the time.”

Doncho brought $72,000 from Jose A. Lopez's JAL Racing following a :9 4/5 bullet breeze out of the GOP Racing Stable consignment at last year's OBS June sale. Bred in Kentucky by Susan Young, he was previously a $32,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase by GGS Legal Racing. He RNA'd for $12,000 as a short yearling at Keeneland January.

The first 'Rising Star' for young Coolmore sire Mo Town, Doncho was produced by the unraced mare Sassy Redhead. This is the extended female family of GISWs Madcap Escapade (Hennessy), Mi Sueno (Pulpit) and Dubai Escapade (Awesome Again).

Members of the press haven't been the only ones ringing Lovell's phone to chat about Doncho.

“After his first race we got a ton of interest,” Lovell said. “Mr. Lopez thought about it. He definitely had some offers that would make you sit back and think for a bit. It took him a few days and he said, 'Nope, I'm keeping him.'”

Damon's Mound & Michelle Lovell following the 2022 Saratoga Special | Susie Raisher

She continued, “We're super excited about him. He's a young horse and is still developing and we're really proud of the way he behaves. He's a big bodied and very muscular horse and he's letting his front end catch up to his hind end the last couple of months. He's a lot of fun.”

Fellow Lovell-trained 'Rising Star' Damon's Mound (Girvin), meanwhile, is currently enjoying some “deserved downtime” at Apple Ridge Farm in Kentucky. The 2022 GII Saratoga Special S. winner and 2023 GII Gallant Bob S. winner was last seen finishing fourth in the GI Malibu S. at Santa Anita Dec. 26.

“We'll have him back at Churchill before too long,” Lovell said.

Wow! A star could be in the making as #6 DONCHO ($4) was impressive again in race 7 at the Fair Grounds and is now 2 for 2 in his young career. The 3yo son of Mo Town was ridden by @jaimetorresjcky and is trained by @MichelleLovell.

Watch more on @FanDuelTV. pic.twitter.com/1ro4nZYU8D

— TVG (@TVG) February 13, 2024

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The even-money favorite forced the issue from an outside second, poked his head in front approaching the quarter pole and blasted off for home to win by an impressive 4 1/2 lengths while stopping the clock for six furlongs in a very sharp 1:09.52. Cats By Five (Audible) was second.

The 3-year-old gelding earned a 94 Beyer Speed Figure in a front-running, five-length debut score at odds of 21-1 at Fair Grounds Dec. 30.

Doncho, a $32,000 Keeneland September yearling turned $72,000 OBS June bullet breezer (:9 4/5), is the first 'TDN Rising Star' for young sire Mo Town. The 2016 GII Remsen S. winner and 2017 GI Hollywood Derby winner also received the 'Rising Star' nod in his second career start.

Doncho's unraced dam Sassy Redhead, a $14,000 RNA most recently at the 2019 KEENOV sale, is also represented by a 2-year-old filly by Lord Nelson. Sassy Redhead was bred to Idol for 2024. This is the extended female family of GISWs Madcap Escapade (Hennessy), Mi Sueno (Pulpit) and Dubai Escapade (Awesome Again).

7th-Fair Grounds, $58,000, Alw (NW1X)/Opt. Clm ($100,000), 2-13, 3yo, 6f, 1:09.52, ft, 4 1/2 lengths.
DONCHO, g, 3, by Mo Town
                1st Dam: Sassy Redhead, by Henny Hughes
                2nd Dam: Sass Me, by Carson City
                3rd Dam: Sassy Pants, by Saratoga Six
Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $66,000. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV and for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
O-JAL Racing; B-Susan Young (KY); T-Michelle Lovell. *$12,000 RNA Ylg '22 KEEJAN; $32,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $72,000 2yo '23 OBSOPN.

Wow! A star could be in the making as #6 DONCHO ($4) was impressive again in race 7 at the Fair Grounds and is now 2 for 2 in his young career. The 3yo son of Mo Town was ridden by @jaimetorresjcky and is trained by @MichelleLovell.

Watch more on @FanDuelTV. pic.twitter.com/1ro4nZYU8D

— TVG (@TVG) February 13, 2024

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Justify's 2024 fee is the fourth-highest of the stallions announced so far for 2024, placing him behind perennial leading sires Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday) and Curlin (Smart Strike), and third-crop standout Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}).

Veteran sire Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) remains at $150,000 while 17-year-old Munnings (Speightstown) sits at $75,000.

Following the top three are American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) $50,000; Practical Joke (Into Mischief) $45,000; Epicenter (Not This Time), $40,000; Jack Christopher (Munnings) $40,000; Corniche (Quality Road) $25,000; Golden Pal (Uncle Mo) $25,000; Tiz The Law (Constitution) $20,000; Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) $15,000; Maximum Security (New Year's Day) $7,500; Echo Town (Speightstown) $5,000; and Mo Town (Uncle Mo) $5,000.

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Never off the board in her seven prior starts, including a three-race win streak last Fall at both Churchill Downs and Keeneland, the $350,000 OBS April grad entered off a 3 1/4-length score in Oaklawn's Purple Martin S. where she posted a career-best 91 Beyer Speed Figure.

Bet like a sure thing at 2-5, Key of Life cruised to the early lead right from the jump despite her outside gate and cleared down just off the rail with Opus Forty Two (Mendelssohn) and Stonewall Star (Flatter) in hot pursuit a length back. Alone on the front end through swift opening fractions of :22.24 and :44.87, Key of Life hit the quarter pole looking as if the race was all but won. But further back in the field, Interpolate was coming with an eye-catching rally from fourth, circling up past both pursuers to move into second despite a wide run around the turn. With a furlong left to race and Key of Life still to catch, Interpolate kept grinding away, pulling within a neck but coming up just short as Key of Life found the wire first. With the win, Key of Life earned 10 points towards the GI Kentucky Oaks in less than three weeks time.

“She's very fast away from (the gate) and she's obviously got a lot of speed,” said winning trainer Brad Cox. “She likes Keeneland a lot. I like Keeneland and she likes Keeneland; she's three-for-three here. I'd like to congratulate (owners) Staton Flurry and Greg Hoffman (of Flurry Racing Stables and Hoffman Family Racing, respectively). This was a last-minute decision, so I want to commend those guys. I called them Tuesday and told them I was looking at this race. She was at Oaklawn, so it was a last-minute decision to bring her here and it worked out well. She had no graded black type, so that obviously was appealing. This (win) added a lot to her value and we're very proud of what she was able to accomplish today.”

Pedigree Notes:

The fourth winner from as many to make the races out of Longride to Wisdom, Key of Life traces back to MGSW and current Hill 'n' Dale stallion Kantharos (Lion Heart). She becomes the third graded-stakes winner for Mo Town whose first crop are now 3-year-olds.

Sunday, Keeneland
BEAUMONT S. PRESENTED BY KEENELAND SELECT-GII, $390,250, Keeneland, 4-16, 3yo, f, 7f, 1:27.32, ft.
1–KEY OF LIFE, 118, f, 3, by Mo Town
                1st Dam: Longride to Wisdom, by Harlan's Holiday
                2nd Dam: Clever Idea, by Matchlite
                3rd Dam: Queen of Savoy, by Conquistador Cielo
   1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($42,000 Ylg '21 OBSOCT; $350,000
2yo '22 OBSAPR). O-Flurry Racing Stables LLC & Hoffman
Family Racing, LLC; B-Moreau Bloodstock International, Inc.
(KY); T-Brad H. Cox; J-Flavien Prat. $241,800. Lifetime Record:
8-5-0-3, $633,275. Werk Nick Rating: A++.
   Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the
   free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Interpolate, 118, f, 3, Into Mischief–Keesha, by Tapit.
1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($210,000 Ylg '21 KEEJAN; $300,000
Ylg '21 FTSAUG). O-Klaravich Stables, Inc.; B-Capital Bloodstock
(KY); T-Chad C. Brown. $78,000.
3–Stonewall Star, 118, f, 3, Flatter–Jonata, by Proud Citizen.
1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. O-Barry K. Schwartz; B-Stonewall
Farm (NY); T-Horacio De Paz. $29,250.
Margins: NK, 6 1/4, 3 3/4. Odds: 0.47, 4.48, 5.87.
Also Ran: She's On the Rocks, Opus Forty Two, Shoplifter, Fun and Feisty. Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

After setting sizzling fractions, #7 Key of Life hangs on to win the G2 Beaumont S. @keenelandracing for trainer @bradcoxracing, owners @Flurry_Racing and Hoffman Family Racing and jockey Flavien Prat! #TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/9fZUXqe5ED

— TwinSpires Racing (@TwinSpires) April 16, 2023

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The complexion of the race changed when Chad Brown scratched Carl Spackler (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}), who sported a field-high 92 Beyer in his last. Mo Stash, away cleanly from stall seven in the Transylvania, shook free of the others and slid down to the rail to mark the first quarter a length clear in :23.69. The field began stringing out, but Mo Stash kept his position, getting the half in :48.41 and the three-quarters in 1:13.84. He was joined by a host of challengers in the stretch only to repel all, including Nagirroc, who briefly looked as though he had the winner measured.

“There was a lot of pacing going on up there and I thought, 'Oh, geez, now we're going to have to set the pace,'” said winning trainer Vicki Oliver, who won the first Keeneland stakes of her career in the Transylvania. “We were kind of getting pushed down the backside, and then [jockey Luis] Saez slipped away and got out on his own, and he could relax a little bit, and when he turned for home prevailed on and ran a really good race.”

Tried for the first time beyond a mile in the Transylvania, Mo Stash spent the majority of his 2-year-old campaign sprinting. A maiden winner at Ellis last August, he's done some of his best work at Keeneland. He finished second in the Lexington oval's Indian Summer S. last October at 5 1/2 furlongs which propelled him to a fourth in the one-mile Breeders' Cup. Freshened until Mar. 11, he reappeared again at a mile in Tampa Bay's Columbia S. and secured a runner-up spot behind a 91 Beyer performance by Talk of the Nation (Quality Road). Mo Stash has run exclusively on the grass.

As for what's next, Oliver added: “It's still going to be a question mark about how far he will go, but today it looked like he just kept going and could go another sixteenth. That might just be his running style. There's a lot of races out there between a mile, mile-and-an-eighth. We'll just have to pick them out as we go.”

Pedigree Notes:

Ashford stallion Mo Town, winner of the GI Hollywood Derby on the lawn and the GII Remsen S. on the dirt, has sired three black-type winners in his first crop with Mo Stash being his first to win or place in a graded event. Mo Stash is out of a mare by the late Smart Strike, whose 159 stakes winners out of his daughters include a number of champions as well as reigning GI Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike (Keen Ice).

Mo Stash is the second stakes performer for his dam, Making Mark Money, whose 2021 GII Tampa Bay Derby runner-up and GIII Sam F. Davis third Hidden Stash (Constitution) also runs for BBN Racing connections and is also trained by Oliver. The 5-year-old's most recent start was a third in an optional allowance at Tampa Feb. 21 after an eight-month layoff. He ran 14th in the 2021 GI Kentucky Derby. It was at the 2021 Keeneland September sale that BBN picked up Mo Stash for $130,000. Making Mark Money's only foal since is a yearling colt by Practical Joke. She was bred to McKinzie for 2023.

Making Mark Money's granddam is the wonderful La Affirmed, a half to champion Outstandingly (Exclusive Native) and dam of four graded winners. Among her descendants are GISWs Sky Mesa (Pulpit), Maxfield (Street Sense), and Matareya (Pioneerof the Nile). The female line traces directly to La Troienne through her granddaughter Busanda, who contributed mightily to the breed, not the least through her Horse of the Year son and stellar sire Buckpasser (Tom Fool).

KENTUCKY UTILITIES TRANSYLVANIA S.-GIII, $396,250, Keeneland, 4-7, 3yo, 1 1/16mT, 1:43.05, gd.
1–MO STASH, 118, c, 3, by Mo Town
                1st Dam: Making Mark Money, by Smart Strike
                2nd Dam: Kapsiki, by Danzig
                3rd Dam: La Affirmed, by Affirmed
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($130,000
Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-BBN Racing, LLC; B-Rhineshire Farm LLC
(KY); T-Victoria H. Oliver; J-Luis Saez. $229,400. Lifetime
Record: 6-2-2-0, $392,275. *1/2 to Hidden Stash
(Constitution), MGSP, $291,382. Werk Nick Rating: A+.
Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the
free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Nagirroc, 118, c, 3, Lea–Emma Spencer (Ire), by Zamindar.
O-Little Red Feather Racing, Madaket Stables LLC and William
Strauss; B-Chervenell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-H. Graham
Motion. $74,000.
3–Webslinger, 118, g, 3, Constitution–Arana, by Hard Spun.
1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($45,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP;
$25,000 Ylg '21 FTKOCT; $45,000 RNA 2yo '22 OBSAPR;
$50,000 2yo '22 OBSOPN). O-D. J. Stable LLC; B-Kenneth L. &
Sarah K. Ramsey (KY); T-Mark E. Casse. $37,000.
Margins: 1, 1, 1. Odds: 5.48, 3.63, 4.96.
Also Ran: Mi Hermano Ramon, Andthewinneris, Candidate, Freedom Trail, Dude N Colorado (GB), Wonderful Justice (GB), Movisitor, Rarified Flair. Scratched: Carl Spackler (Ire).
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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A 15-year-old stalwart of the Coolmore stallion roster, Uncle Mo is currently enjoying a bit of a hot streak with his group of 2023 three-year-olds.

Arabian Knight is the #1 ranked horse on the TDN's Derby Top Contenders off one start-the first race on the Breeders' Cup Saturday card–indicating just how impressive that race was. The $2.3-million sales topper at OBS April was named a `TDN Rising Star' and won by 7 1/4 lengths. He was Uncle Mo's 13th TDN Rising Star.

In the first two weeks of the year, Kingsbarns, an $800,000 Fasig-Tipton March 2yo, broke his maiden in his first start in an $84,000 allowance as the favorite at Gulfstream Park Jan. 14, and Scoobie Quando won the Turfway Prevue S. in his career debut Jan. 7 at Turfway.

This comes, of course, after the year in which he had his second Classic winner with Mo Donegal in the Belmont (joining Nyquist's Derby win).

As the breeding sheds prepare to open, Eddie Rosen, General Manager for Mike Repole's Repole Stables, who campaigned the champion two-year-old, agrees with the `hot' assessment, but takes a bit of umbrage that it's a current phenomenon. “He's very hot right now. But it's important to remember that he has been hot for a very long time. Consistently.”

The industry, he points out, is too often consumed with the shiny new toy. “So often, the concentration is placed on breeding to young stallions, new stallions that have been recently retired. But very few, if any stallions have succeeded like Uncle Mo from the beginning to the current time. He started out with a Derby winner and his very first crop in Nyquist, and he has continued year after year with stakes winners of all kinds.”

In fact, Nyquist leads the list of Uncle Mo's fairly staggering 24 sons at stud, topping the list with a stud fee of $55,000 at Darley. Golden Pal and Yaupon (at Spendthrift) are next at $30,000 each. An informal survey finds only Speightstown and Tapit, who each have 25 sons at stud standing in the U.S., with more.

But while Tapit turns 22 this year, and Speightstown 25, Uncle Mo is far younger.

“Uncle Mo is now 15, and he's on an incredible run,” said Coolmore America's Adrian Wallace. “He's been with us at Ashford Stud now for all of his stallion career. We're privileged to have him. He's been a horse that obviously as a racehorse left no doubt as to how good he was when trained by Todd Pletcher for Repole Stable to be Champion two-year-old. He's imparted a lot of that precocity on his stock but his run continues to flourish.”

Wallace points out that Uncle Mo's recent Grade I winners ranged from Golden Pal at 5 furlongs in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint to Mo Donegal over the Belmont's 12 furlongs on the dirt. “It's a great depth and breadth of winners he has had, siring a Belmont Stakes winner in Mo Donegal and a very fast champion sprinter-elect on the turf in Golden Pal. I think the horse is definitely going from strength to strength every single year. He has horses running in all the best races, but the great thing is they do it short, long, dirt, and turf in this country on and all around the Northern Hemisphere.”

Arabian Knight wins in his Keeneland debut | Coady photo

But right now, it's Arabian Knight capturing everyone's attention.

“Arabian Night is obviously very much at the forefront of everyone's imagination being at the top of the TDN's leading Derby contenders for 2023,” said Wallace. “His much-anticipated debut here on the Breeders Cup undercard at Keeneland was highly, highly professional and brilliant. Hopefully, he will be seen to good effect in the in the Santa Anita Derby.”

Arabian Knight worked five furlongs in 59.60 at Santa Anita, but trainer Bob Baffert-who told jockey John Velazquez to ride him like he was Uncle Mo– said that he had not picked out the colt's second start yet, and would take his time with him.

“But there's not just one,” said Wallace. “I think Scoobie Quando made a very impressive debut for Ben Colebrook winning the Turfway Prevue as a maiden in a stakes race. So, we think the future is very bright hopefully throughout this classic season for Uncle Mo.”

But then again, Rosen will tell you that his future has always been bright. “He doesn't have peaks and valleys,” he said. “He's consistently coming up with stakes winner after stakes winner. He continues to make the front pages of the TDN. He's emerging as a sire of sires. He is emerging as a top broodmare sire, which proves to continue on his legacy as a great sire. I feel like every night, something good happens that's worthy of mention.”

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If the stampede to unproven sires is ludicrous, then so is the haste with which they are abandoned. Stallions whose stock should plainly be granted time to mature round a second turn are often prematurely judged. Even more precocious types often find themselves long since abandoned by the most ruthless commercial breeders, who can annually move on to a fresh group whose reputation is usefully invulnerable to any appraisal more meaningful than hype.

For most stallions, then, this is a time when sales averages are coming down, along with fees and books. It's very rare that a young sire emerges from his opening racetrack skirmishes with the authority of Gun Runner, whose first sophomores spectacularly consolidated their record-breaking domination of the freshmen preceding the group we consider today. You more often find yourself dealing with an Overanalyze, champion freshman five years ago and meanwhile discarded to South Korea.

To be fair, however, this lot have laid down a very purposeful marker as the freshmen of 2022. The top six, indeed, can also be found among the top 10 of the overall list of juvenile sires. Auspiciously, moreover, there are grounds for thinking that several, judged on the template of their own performance and pedigree, can stimulate further progress from their maturing stock.

Arguably, the best long-term value right now rests with those who might emulate the way the tragic Arrogate transformed his legacy with his first sophomores, after they had made a quiet start as juveniles. On the other hand, those sires that had assembled monster books as commercial rookies should expect to be judged pretty sternly, pretty quickly.

So we have to strike a balance. Already second crop yearlings have typically registered a depreciation of many sire brands in the sales ring. On the other hand, investors of sufficient patience, vision and bravery may decide that this is precisely the moment to roll the dice on a slower burn.

Bubbling Under:

BOLT D'ORO closed out the year strongest to secure the freshman laurels after a sustained battle with two other very promising young sires, a distinction that formalized the superiority he showed both in the sheer breadth of his quality–a stellar one-in-five starters getting black type–and notably in the sales performance of his second crop, which uniquely among the trio managed to advance the values achieved by his first.

His median, always the key measure, rose to $152,500 from the $110,000 achieved by those debut yearlings who had meanwhile been showing that it was money well spent. That's an exceptional vote of confidence, albeit perhaps partly also reflected a rather narrower choice for purchasers after numbers had to be controlled (along with his boisterous behavior, at the time) for his second season. Bolt d'Oro was back up to 174 mares for his fourth book last spring, and the quality of his mares will only be going up with his fee-now $35,000 after slipping to $15,000 in 2021. Obviously he has to work harder to achieve the same ratios now, with the stakes raised, but he has made an exemplary start.

Fairly steady stuff on the track from MO TOWN (illuminated by Myrtlewood S. romper Key Of Life) does not tell half his story, as he is an unusual example of a stallion whose business soared in his third and fourth seasons. His second crop of yearlings emerge from a book of 104 mares, but he then covered 204 in 2021 and 218 this spring. If that generates renewed momentum on the track, in a couple of years from now, this could turn out to be a smart time to get involved at just $5,000.

Army Mule | Sarah K. Andrew

BRONZE: ARMY MULE (Friesan Fire-Crafty Toast by Crafty Prospector)
$12,500 Hill 'n' Dale
This has always looked a stallion who could only have extreme outcomes. He was either going to be a dud, or prove himself exceptional value. Happily, there already seems little doubt that the switch is “on” and Army Mule appears set to build something pretty imposing on the fragile foundations of a track career that showcased freakish ability across barely four minutes, and a somewhat left-field pedigree.

His every trajectory is upward. Most importantly, his first juveniles have excelled, elevating him to fourth in the table from a smaller book (and much smaller fee) than those above him. Of his 24 winners from 61 starters, as many as five won at black-type level-the top three were tied with just one more-in tipping $2 million in purse money.

This performance had been anticipated by a stunning debut at the yearling sales, when Army Mule's first crop averaged nine times their $10,000 conception fee. In response, there was a further rebound in the size of his 2022 book, after he had slumped from 140 mares to 47 in his second season. He has now received 83 and 115 partners in the two years since. And while he couldn't quite replicate his initial yield with his second crop of yearlings, he again punched way above the kind of ratio you might expect at this stage, averaging $69,272 for 22 yearlings sold (from only 25 offered). Unsurprisingly, given his own giddy history as a yearling pinhook ($35,000 to $825,000) he also achieved dividends as high as $450,000 at the 2-year-old sales.

Originally, no doubt, breeders may have been torn between his six-length GI Carter H. success, in 1:20.94, on what proved to be the final of just three starts; and, on the other hand, some fairly unfashionable genes (albeit second and third dams both graded stakes winners). One way or another, however, things are plainly functioning in a repeatable fashion. You know what they say when it walks like a duck…

If Army Mule already sires runners like a good stallion, and sells horses like a good stallion, the chances are that he's a good stallion.

Accelerate | Lane's End

SILVER: ACCELERATE (Lookin At Lucky-Issues by Awesome Again)
$10,000 Lane's End
Of the three stallions launched into this intake at Lane's End, CITY OF LIGHT was always the golden boy. Though slow to get going, his 11 winners since midsummer already feature three at stakes level. Nobody, in short, still needs telling what he can still hope to achieve at $60,000.

At the sales, however, it has meanwhile proved much tougher going for the second crop of yearlings by the pair who started alongside him. Nonetheless I am unhesitatingly keeping the faith with the one I have liked all along.

In this series we've already nailed our colors to the Lookin At Lucky mast with Country House, believing the Ashford stalwart as likely to be underestimated as a potential sire of sires as he has always been in his own right. And there's no doubt in my mind that Accelerate is an absolutely astounding amount of horse for just $10,000.

Did anyone for a moment think that Accelerate was going to start off with a cavalcade of sprint maidens at the Keeneland spring meet? Yet having looked after his supporters very nicely with his first yearlings, he found himself childishly neglected with his second crop.

Accelerate did muster 14 juvenile winners, including one at stakes level, which is as much as could have been sensibly expected for a horse that himself required four sophomore starts to break his maiden in high summer. He then rolled on to win a stakes and the GII Los Alamitos Derby before finishing third in the GI Dirt Mile at the Breeders' Cup. Lest we forget, runner-up in that race was another sophomore who was only laying down foundations: horse name of Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}).

Nobody should need reminding of the heights Accelerate achieved in his own maturity, winning five Grade Is at five. His only defeat that year? By a neck to none other than City Of Light, giving weight, the pair 10 lengths clear.

Accelerate laid down a perfect marker with his first sophomore runner, on New Year's Day at Laurel, where a filly making her fourth start broke her maiden easily over a bare six furlongs. That's a similar template to Winters Lion, who had run fifth, third and second in Churchill maidens before putting it all together to romp by 6 1/2 at Oaklawn in December. Anyone can see that all this is pure groundwork and breeders blessed with that rarest of commodities, patience, will recognize the value they're getting if their primary objective is to put a winner under their mare. (Which should, after all, be just about the most commercial thing anyone can do…)

Remember that Accelerate is out of an Awesome Again mare (representing the distaff gold of Deputy Minister) who also produced siblings, respectively, placed at Grade I and Grade III level, her own dam being a half-sister to a Grade I winner. (And the line traces to a fifth dam, Smartaire, whose son Smarten gave us the dam of Accelerate's grandsire Smart Strike.)

It's a dismal measure of the world we live in that Accelerate was retired at a fee as accessible as $20,000, lower than several horses he had left gasping in his wake-and that he has since taken three cuts in three years. What exactly are people after? This horse earned $6.7 million by dint of class, constitution and a physique prized at $380,000 as a yearling, despite his ostensibly uncommercial paternity. Bar a historic Triple Crown winner, Accelerate would have been a lock for Horse of the Year and I remain confident that he will, gradually and cumulatively, retrieve respect in his second career.

He actually has a very solid numerical base, with as many as 380 mares across his first three books. Given that his opening crops seem very likely to keep thriving with time, he could wind up with plenty of headlines overlapping in the coming years. As such, this feels like a very good moment to get ahead of the game with Accelerate. Sure, that suggestion might irritate those who suffered from the myopic treatment of his second crop at the sales. But someday people may look back at this horse, at this fee, as one of the great missed opportunities.

Oscar Performance | Sarah K. Andrew

GOLD: OSCAR PERFORMANCE (Kitten's Joy-Devine Actress by Theatrical {Ire})
$20,000 Mill Ridge
This guy will cost you a little more this time round-and so he jolly well should.

Most obviously, Oscar Performance has made an exemplary start on the track, with higher earnings per starter than any other top-10 freshman sire. From star managed to put him as high as eighth in the prize money table (slipstreaming Mendelssohn, with 90!) and featured not just 17 winners, a couple at black-type level, but also four placed in graded stakes company. These included a Grade II one-two when Andthewinneris beat Deer District at Keeneland in the fall.

We know, moreover, that these horses will keep building if they adhere to their sire's own template as a Grade I winner at two, three and four. And, crucially, even a commercial market so petrified of turf horses has managed to register his promise: bucking the usual trend, his second crop elevated their predecessors' yearling average from $43,149 to $57,474 (for a strong 38 sold of 44 offered).

But the real key for Oscar Performance is that he has emerged at an hour of need for the enlightened minority who actually want to connect the American bloodstock industry to huge racetrack opportunity on American grass.

Everyone knows how the turf program is expanding, and that a virtuous circle is underway between fully subscribed fields and purse money. And a lot of people, as a result, are investing heavily in elite European blood at sales over the water. On their own doorstep, however, they have now allowed both English Channel and Kitten's Joy to pass without ever having shown them anything like enough respect in the ring.

Now we have a blatant young talent emerging to blatant opportunity. There is generational room at the top, after the consecutive loss of his own sire, English Channel and Get Stormy. And here's a horse who had the brilliance to drop back from elite scores at 10 furlongs (Arlington Million/Belmont Derby) to make all in a Grade I mile; the soundness to bank $2.35 million across three seasons; and a pedigree that duplicates the same breed-changing alchemy top and bottom.

That's because his damsire is a son of Nureyev, who was by Northern Dancer out of the great Special (Forli {Arg}); while he extends the storied sire-line of Sadler's Wells, who was of course by Northern Dancer out of Special's daughter Fairy Bridge (Bold Reason). That may sound like way too much chlorophyll for a lot of Kentucky breeders, but I will never cease complaining about prescriptive, self-fulfilling assumptions about different bloodlines and different surfaces. Sure enough, Oscar Performance has already come up with Red Carpet Ready to win a dirt sprint by 10 lengths at Churchill on debut and then a 6.5f dirt stakes over the same track on her only other start.

Oscar Performance has been launched with unsurprising flair by a farm that once stood international influences in Diesis and Gone West. It's great to see them back in the stallion game, not least with so much “industrial” traffic cornered by the same few farms, and it's a typically thoughtful gesture-having trimmed him to $12,500 pending his first runners-to confine the increase in Oscar Performance's fee to $17,500 for those clients who had used him already.

The rest of us may have been less alert, but anyone can now see that Oscar Performance is on his way. He will surely rank high on the shortlists of European pinhookers as well. Roll out the red carpet!

The post Value Sires for ’23: Part V, First Sophomores appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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A homebred for Bass Stables LLC, the newly minted 3-year-old took four tries to earn her first win after three consecutive finishes behind GISW And Tell Me Nolies (Arrogoate), including a third in the GI Del Mar Debutante S. Fourth behind both that rival and the Santa Ynez's scratched morning-line favorite 'TDN Rising Star' Justique (Justify) in the GII Chandelier S., Ice Dancing rebounded in her fourth start to break her maiden ahead of Bob Baffert's Doinitthehardway (Street Sense) at Del Mar Nov. 25.

Speaking of the Baffert barn, he will enter a trio in a bid to win what would be his fourth Santa Ynez in a row. It appears that Huntingcoco (Practical Joke), Fast and Shiny (Bernardini) and Parody (Distorted Humor) have not flashed much in the way of speed under the California sun over the past few months, so a game effort is in order if one of them wants to keep their conditioner's streak alive.

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For instance, despite examples showing otherwise, it remains tempting to box sires as 'dirt' and 'turf' and 'American' and 'European' when actually some of them will prove capable of crossing the differing racing jurisdictions quite easily. Had all breeders and buyers remained on 'the straight and narrow', the chance to appreciate the likes of Scat Daddy, Medaglia d'Oro, More Than Ready and Distorted Humor, as perfectly capable influences for Europe might have passed us by. Naturally, not every dirt horse will serve European investors well but as history has shown on countless occasions, there will be those that work and therefore sometimes the inclination to act with an open mind and experiment with bloodlines can benefit in the long run.

In some cases, the issue with these horses is that they will be quite often well into their stud career before they become fully appreciated by an international audience. Kitten's Joy was middle-aged by the time he came to be well regarded by Europeans, having made his name through the hard work of his owner-breeders Ken and Sarah Ramsey. He was part of a select group of older Kentucky stallions that consistently piqued the attention of turf-orientated breeders until his death earlier this year. Other such horses, More Than Ready and English Channel, have also died in the past 18 months while Distorted Humor has been pensioned.

That leaves a dwindling clutch of Kentucky-based sires who are proven at the highest level on turf. There is War Front (Claiborne Farm: $100,000), the sire of 24 Group/Grade 1 winners including this year's G1 Coolmore Turf Mile scorer Annapolis. He is rising 21 but the stats remain firmly in his corner, notably that 11% black-type winners to foals of racing age figure.

Medaglia d'Oro (Jonabell Farm: $100,000) has also long been a friend of the European breeder, with his stud record ranging from turf performers of the ilk of Golden Sixty (Aus) and Talismanic (GB) to iconic dirt runners such as Rachel Alexandra and Songbird. However, the Darley stalwart will be 24 years old next year while his studmate Hard Spun (Jonabell Farm: $35,000), another go-to horse for Europeans whose international stud career includes the turf Group 1 winners Hard Not To Like, Gatting (Aus) and Le Romain (Aus), will be 19. Similarly, WinStar Farm's venerable Speightstown ($80,000), another firm favourite with Europeans, will turn 25.

There is the trap of taking these horses for granted. They won't be around forever and for those looking to invest in American bloodlines, particularly pinhookers, there is value in pinpointing those younger stallions capable of perhaps following their example.

Quality Road (Lane's End Farm: $200,000) isn't young at 16 and is primarily a dirt sire. But like his sire Elusive Quality before him, he is also very capable of throwing turf runners as well; in fact, it was on British soil that he first came to attention as a potential sire of note when his first-crop son Hootenanny won the 2014 Windsor Castle S. at Royal Ascot.

The issue for European breeders is that when these elite stallions reach a certain level, they become almost out of reach. Quality Road will end 2022 as America's second leading sire behind Into Mischief and is set to command $200,000 in 2023, up from $150,000 in 2022. As such, he is very much the domain of American breeders.

Yet there is a subplot developing that will bring him to greater prominence in Europe, namely the handful of 2-year-olds housed at Ballydoyle. In 2019, Coolmore utilised Quality Road as an outlet for various Galileo (Ire) mares and are on the road to being well rewarded given that the five 2-year-olds to have run include G3 Killavullan S. winner Cairo (Ire) (out of Cuff {Ire}), Leopardstown maiden winner Mohawk Chief (out of Wedding Vow {Ire}) and Dundalk maiden winner Carracci (out of Butterflies {Ire}). The remaining duo, Canute and Time To Boogie, have both been placed.

War Front, of course, filled that role of clicking with Coolmore's broodmare band, many of them daughters of Galileo (Ire), for several years. With his resulting European success in mind, several of his sons should come under consideration.

As far as his proven sons are concerned, it doesn't cost the earth to use either The Factor (Lane's End Farm: $15,000), a proven Grade I sire who has been ably represented in recent years by the high-class, hardy turf sprinter Bound For Nowhere, or Summer Front (Airdrie Stud: $7,500). Both have served European pinhookers well over the years and in turn have had a smattering of representation over here, in particular Summer Front, who was represented only earlier this month by the Italian listed winner Tequila Picante. Also responsible for turf graded stakes winners such as Speaktomeofsummer and Fighting Seabee in the US, Tequila Picante maintains a successful association with Europe for the stallion that also includes the stakes-placed Summeronsevenhills and Ete Indien, a graduate of the Arqana May Breeze-Up Sale who won the GII Fountain Of Youth S. back on American soil.

Safe Option

Despite Speightstown's (WinStar Farm: $80,000) advanced age, his profile has not diminished. On home soil, he was represented by two Grade I winners in 2022–Shirl's Speight on turf and Olympiad on dirt–as well as yearlings that sold for up to $950,000. At the same time, he remains a safe option for Europeans, with his ability to throw fast turf runners and good-looking stock a particularly appealing attribute to the breeze-up community.

However, he won't be around forever. Currently, his legacy runs most strongly through Munnings (Ashford Stud: $100,000). Available early in his career for $10,000, his stud career has been one of a steady ascent to the top 10 American stallions, with this year's standing buoyed by the presence of 15 stakes winners led by the 10-length GI Woody Stephens S. winner Jack Christopher. That colt might have been an extremely gifted dirt runner but the ability to throw high-class runners on turf is also there as illustrated by Kimari, who ran second in the G1 Commonwealth Cup and G2 Queen Mary S. for Wesley Ward, and G2 Del Mar Derby winner Om.

The turf success of American Pharoah, himself a true dirt
performer with a pedigree steeped in dirt success, is living
proof of the dangers of pigeon-holing horses

Such is the versatility of this line that it would be folly for turf-orientated breeders to dismiss other Kentucky-based sons of Speightstown ranging from Charlatan ($50,000; Hill 'n' Dale Farm) and Olympiad ($35,000; Gainesway Farm) to Nashville ($15,000; WinStar Farm) and Lexitonian ($7,500; Lane's End Farm), for all they did all their racing on dirt. And given that speed was also the essence for a number of them, the scene is set for those horses to attract the attention of the European breeze-up pinhookers when the time comes.

Versatility has also been a striking element to the stud career of American Pharoah (Ashford Stud: $60,000). As befits a Triple Crown winner, the horse has never lacked for high-level support, particularly from high-profile international breeders. That in turn has allowed him the opportunity to be well represented on an international scale. In fact, his first ever winner arrived courtesy of the Aidan O'Brien-trained Monarch Of Egypt at Naas in April 2019 and, since then, he has continued to make his presence felt in these parts, notably as sire of the Group 1 winners Van Gogh and Above The Curve, both campaigned by the Coolmore partners.

The turf success of American Pharoah, himself a true dirt performer with a pedigree steeped in dirt success, is living proof of the dangers of pigeon-holing horses. As expected, his stock do enjoy dirt. But a willingness to experiment early on and cross him with turf mares and/or import a number of his progeny to Europe has helped build the horse as a major presence worldwide. Indeed, close to 10 yearlings by him were bought at the Keeneland September Sale to come back to Europe.

Fellow Ashford Stud stallion Uncle Mo ($150,000) is another with the ability to produce the goods on turf if given the right mare; for that, look no further than the top-class turf sprinter Golden Pal, himself an interesting new recruit to Ashford Stud, and the GI Hollywood Derby winners Mo Forza and Mo Town.

Uncle Mo has commanded six figures since 2017, making him likely out of reach for most European breeders. But it is probably worth keeping an eye on his son Mo Town (Ashford Stud), for whom a first crop includes five stakes horses on turf and dirt and the earners of nearly $1.5 million, enough to make him a top eight American first-crop sire. He stands for $5,000, quite a bit less than several of those who surround him on the table.

The key for breeders is to determine that stallion that could be on the way up. Not This Time (Taylor Made Stallions) is one such horse, having leapt from a fee of $12,500 to $135,000 within the space of three years. Much of his reputation is built on dirt performers of the calibre of Epicenter and Princess Noor but he is after all a son of Giant's Causeway and there has been enough action within his own stud career on grass–notably the 10 black-type turf horses of 2022–to make him interesting to the higher end of the European market.

Not This Time is the most successful American-based son of Giant's Causeway but that's not to say the others are not worth considering. The past season for Creative Cause (Airdrie Stud) was highlighted by the dual Grade III-winning grass 2-year-old Packs A Wahlop while Claiborne Farm's veteran First Samurai held his own as the sire of six stakes winners, among them the $800,000 turf earner Plum Ali. Both proven Grade I sires, neither is expensive at $7,500.

Storm Cat Speed

The Storm Cat sire line retains much of its popularity via Scat Daddy, whose sons Justify and Mendelssohn will be discussed in more depth in part two among the younger stallions available. But let's not forget Kantharos (Hill 'n' Dale Farm: $20,000), who descends from Storm Cat via Lion Heart, or Karakontie (Jpn) (Gainesway Farm: $10,000), a son of Bernstein (himself a high-class 2-year-old for Aidan O'Brien) who is now established one of Kentucky's most effective turf sires.

Grade II-winning juvenile Kantharos made his name out of Florida-bred crops that included the high-class speedsters World Of Trouble, X Y Jet and Bucchero. The latter was in fact deemed good enough to take his chance in the 2018 G1 King's Stand S., where he ran fifth behind Blue Point (Ire). Few Kantharos representatives have made their way to Europe but turf speed has been one of the elements to his success so far and thus he appeals as the type to click well with faster European-type mares if given the chance.

As a French Classic-winning miler owned and bred by the Niarchos family, Karakontie (Jpn) (Gainesway: $10,000) has understandably had plenty of exposure in Europe, notably as the sire of G3 Horris Hill S. winner Kenzai Warrior, Killarney listed winner Cigamia and Spendarella, who ran second in this year's G1 Coronation S. for Graham Motion. He is primarily a turf sire in the US but there has been the odd good dirt runner, notably Grade III winner Sole Volante.

Few Kantharos representatives have made their way to Europe but
turf speed has been one of the elements to his success so far

Both stallions are bred on a variation of the Storm Cat-Halo cross; Kantharos is out of a mare by Southern Halo while Karakontie's dam Sun Is Up (Jpn) provides a welcome strain of Sunday Silence.

For years, the Hail To Reason line more than held its own, renowned for its consistent ability to throw sound, durable horses. Sadly, as a sire-line it is now on the wane, its fortunes in Kentucky currently resting on Blame and Temple City, both proven Grade I sires but both also approaching the twilight of their careers.

Blame (Claiborne Farm: $25,000) sprang to attention in Europe as sire of the Niarchos family's G1 Prix de Diane heroine Senga out of his first crop. While he hasn't reached quite the same heights over here since then–although in fairness representation has been sparse enough–the son of Arch has forged a reputation as a very solid sire for his price point in the US, with his stud record ranging from a top-class dirt colt in Nadal to the Grade I turf winner Abscond. A 6% black-type winners to foals of racing age figure places him in a favourable light, especially for his price bracket. He is also rapidly developing into a broodmare sire of note: look no further than the outcome to the GI Breeders Futurity at Keeneland in which his daughters supplied the first two home in Forte (Violence) and Loggins (Ghostzapper). With that in mind, an accomplished Blame filly would be a worthy addition to any broodmare band worldwide, especially as he himself is related to Sadler's Wells and Nureyev on his dam side, allowing for some interesting inbreeding opportunities.

As for Temple City (Spendthrift Farm: $5,000), he is the sole son of Dynaformer at stud in Kentucky and doing that sire-line proud as North America's fourth leading active turf sire of 2022–a highly noteworthy feat given his lowly fee. A clutch of eight stakes winners in 2022, seven of them on turf, included the graded stakes winners Temple, Temple City Terror and Another Mystery to enhance a stud record already highlighted by the Grade I winners Miss Temple City, Bolo and Annals Of Time.

Part II of this feature will appear in Saturday's TDN and will take a closer look at some of the younger members of the American stallion ranks.

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6th-DMR, $70K, Msw, 2yo, 6f, 6:00 p.m.

SULLY (Uncle Mo), a $700,000 yearling at last year's Keeneland September Sale, debuts for trainer John Shirreffs and owner CRK Stable Sunday. Second dam Grazie Mille is responsible for a pair of 'TDN Rising Stars' in GISW and top-10 freshman sire Mo Town (Uncle Mo) as well as GII Chandelier S. third Justique (Justify). The bay just missed a bullet in his most recent work, going four furlongs at Santa Anita in :46 4/5 (2/71) and picks up jockey Victor Espinoza. TJCIS PPS

9th-DMR, $70K, Msw, 2yo, f, 1mT, 7:30 p.m.

Another $700,000 yearling purchase from Keeneland September, WINDOW SHOPPING (American Pharoah) is the third foal out of GSW Delightful Joy (Tapit), herself a half-sister to GSW Cali Star (Street Cry {Ire}) out of GSW and GISP Graeme Six (Graeme Hall). Her 4-year-old half-sister, Zainalarab (War Front), was herself a $1,000,000 yearling.  TJCIS PPS

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