Junior Alvarado gears down on #8 JEFFERSON STREET ($2.54) as he breaks his maiden in Race 4 at @KeenelandRacing for trainer Bill Mott and owner @godolphin.
Another winner by Street Sense, who stands at @DarleyAmerica. pic.twitter.com/Aeszqn9Lp9

— TVG (@TVG) April 11, 2024

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Plenty of horses in this bracket have recently relinquished their brief window of commercial opportunity, and are now hanging around to discover whether they might join the very small group whose first runners generate a fresh vogue. Even with the newcomers out of the equation–we gave them a separate assessment, to open the series–we're left with three groups still untested on the track: those expecting their first foals; those who have just sold their first weanlings; and those actually about to dip a toe in the water with their first runners.

Pending that crossroads, many find themselves somewhat adrift against a bunch of older sires who have survived that test. These fit this tier either because they are losing stature or, more cheerfully, because they have carved out a viable niche as an affordable source of winners.

First the young guns. Of those who sent their first yearlings to auction this year, the ones who really nailed it, unsurprisingly, vaunted the kind of speed that pinhookers crave.

VOLATILE burned brightly in a light career, not seen again after confirming his Grade I caliber against a small but select field in the Vanderbilt. His 112 Beyer in the Aristides S. (1:07.57) was the highest of 2020 and duly secured 181 mares the following spring. Himself an $850,000 yearling, with a GI Test/GI Ballerina winner as granddam, his $125,431 average was boosted by a spectacular $1.15 million docket for a Book 1 filly at Keeneland in September. Nudged back up to $15,000 (from $12,500), Volatile has three hefty books behind him and will be the horse to beat for the freshman title next year.

But not even his median yield of 4.3 on his opening fee ($75,000/ $17,500) could match that of COMPLEXITY, whose $65,000 median (never mind his average $90,400!) multiplied his $12,500 fee by 5.2. Complexity started with some serious volume by the restrained standards of his farm, and then followed through with another three-figure book in his second season. He was clearly in the same vicinity as Volatile as a mature horse (110 Beyer in the GII Kelso) but was the more accomplished juvenile, wiring a Saratoga maiden (90 Beyer) before a decisive success in the GI Champagne S. on his second start. His half-sister ran second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, so their unraced dam is obviously channelling the good stuff.

VEKOMA is meanwhile working the Spendthrift system with remarkable efficiency, having started out (at $20,000) with staggering volume, entertaining at least 200 mares in each of his first three seasons. This year he processed 102 of his first yearlings at $98,432, albeit was unsurprisingly stretched somewhat thinner by a median of $60,000. Though confined to eight starts across three seasons, he was class from beginning to end, posting big numbers for his Grade I double in the Carter and Met Mile. From a stallion-producing family, he's a horse I've liked all the way through and everything is in place for him to look after many (albeit probably not all!) of his (very many!) clients at $15,000.

Knicks Go | Sarah Andrew

Among those in this intake offering rather more stretch, one or two suffered horrible yearling medians relative to conception fee. But one who made a solid start off $12,500 was Bolt d'Oro's half-brother GLOBAL CAMPAIGN: 74 yearlings sold at $63,195 (median $43,500). This was a more talented animal than generally appreciated and I can see him proving himself a bargain gateway to Curlin. A closer look at his family shows that it tends to produce faster types than are associated with the seeding sires, and Global Campaign's first crop of 126 live foals may surprise a few people with their dash.

Of those who sold their first weanlings this fall, meanwhile, the one that will sort out the sheep and the goats is KNICKS GO. No questioning his talent, it was just never quite obvious where it all came from–albeit his dam maintained stakes speed through four seasons. Those who didn't require a more familiar pedigree were delighted to see a Horse of the Year introduced at just $30,000. Well, now they can get him for half that, even though he's still nearly 18 months away from the opportunity to demonstrate whether or not he can replicate his brilliance! At this money, some people will surely want to roll the dice.

Even as it is, his weanlings sold a little better than those of SILVER STATE. But it's very early days for the latter, whose pedigree in contrast elucidates all the class he manifested as a runner. A friendly clip to $15,000 should hopefully keep him in the game because this horse equipped to prove a really wholesome influence.

The subsequent intake features some truly frightening books, but I will resist dwelling on that here. Suffice to say that those playing a longer game might quite like a filly by either SPEAKER'S CORNER or MYSTIC GUIDE. Both have taken an early trim at Darley, respectively to $17,500 and $12,500, and their pedigrees shout distaff influence.

We'll have to see how many of the youngsters will endure even in this relatively modest tier, a few years from now. Nor does a flying start bring any guarantees, as UNION RAGS could caution them. The halving of his fee to $15,000 acknowledges the way he has faltered, having stood at $60,000 between 2018 and 2020. Trade for his latest yearlings made this further cut imperative, but he's still the same horse that so quickly came up with five Grade I winners. Hopefully he will find a little oxygen now that he has descended to more accessible altitudes.

Studmate DAREDEVIL has taken his second cut since returning to the U.S., now down to $15,000, but of course it's only in 2024 that we'll get to assess the first juveniles conceived after Swiss Skydiver prompted his urgent repatriation. Their sales performance demanded a mild trim in fee, but he could easily be poised for fresh momentum.

MENDELSSOHN has also taken consecutive cuts, similarly now available at $15,000. He has so far been more about quantity than quality but his supporters will hope that he can still emulate four others, standing at the same fee, who have all done admirably to create a lasting foothold in this most slippery of markets.

The first of these, DIALED IN, is something of a blue-collar hero. He maintains such high volume–corralled 175 mares last spring, his 10th at stud–that it will always be hard, with the raw materials available at this level, to make his ratios “sing”. But Defunded has once again shown the caliber within his competence as his third elite scorer. Dialed In gets his work done at a fair tariff, and will keep plugging away to leave behind many of those now starting at multiples of his fee.

Cairo Prince | Sarah Andrew

CAIRO PRINCE has also created a sustainable brand for himself through six crops, as attested by a solid book of 129 mares last spring. A set-your-clock black-type producer throughout, he's now entering the territory where he can legitimately prove a mare–and of course he gets such a nice type, the average ($54,194) and median ($40,000) of his latest yearlings duly best among this proven quartet.

MIDSHIPMAN is a true yeoman and it's typical of this business that he should have had a quieter year (by his very special standards) both on the track and in the sales ring after finally doubling his fee to $20,000 last year–due recognition for having punched above weight for so long. His lifetime stats remain ridiculous for a stallion who has largely been a four-figure cover: 47 stakes winners at 6.4 percent of named foals, nine at graded stakes level; and 101 black-type performers overall, at 13.7 percent. The trim back to $15,000 brings him back towards the reach of breeders who most appreciate just what he can do for their mares.

KANTHAROS, who has really pulled himself up by his bootstraps, had another very solid year on the track. He has made the same slip in fee, reflecting a tepid book of mares last spring and a challenging yield on yearlings conceived at $30,000. But that was an experience shared by many sires exposed to a porous middle market, and the fact is that Kantharos lurks only just outside the top 10 in the 2023 general sires' list with a dozen stakes winners, including a couple at graded level. His lifetime ratio of stakes runners–11 percent of named foals–remains outstanding for a horse whose first five books were compiled in Florida at just $5,000.

He sired two Grade I winners at that fee, and now has another millionaire in Grade II winner Bay Storm. The first of his two $30,000 books were juveniles this year, and we know how they will keep thriving. That guarantees Kantharos imminently entry into the top 20 active sires on lifetime earnings. All he needs to do is supplant… Lookin At Lucky!

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze Medal: CONNECT
Curlin–Bullville Belle (Holy Bull)
Lane's End $15,000

Connect | Sarah Andrew

Amid all this talk about stud fees being too high, credit is overdue to Lane's End for anticipating the mood in the room. From Flightline down, the farm made 11 cuts across their 2024 roster. All were meaningful, and some nearly brutal, effectively conceding that one or two stallions were drifting into trouble and needed some decisive help. Bravo! The very opposite of burying your head in the sand, and in the present environment I hope it works out both for the farm and its clients.

One stallion who can certainly benefit is Connect, restored from $25,000 to his 2021 fee of $15,000 after the crop conceived that year returned a tepid median (albeit a perfectly acceptable $45,774 average) at the yearling sales. He'd also suffered a real slump in his book last spring, down to 45 from 172 in 2022! But we're accustomed to seeing horses treated like this, once they have served their commercial purpose, and should sooner marvel at the impression he must have made with his first crop to get such a big book (up from 93 in 2021) in his fifth year at stud.

Sure enough, only Gun Runner and Practical Joke banked more prizemoney as freshmen in 2021, and only Gun Runner had more winners. Unfortunately Connect did not then consolidate especially well, but he has made a timely return to form this year with eight stakes winners, three at graded level, plus a GI Kentucky Oaks third in The Alys Look. Moreover, his first-crop flagship, the juvenile Grade I winner Rattle N Roll, failed by just half a length to add another elite score in the GI Stephen Foster S. That horse was a $55,000 weanling but has now banked $1.7 million across three seasons.

Connect's pedigree is not without its challenges but he's another to bring Curlin within range and had real prowess as a racehorse, a blip in the Travers his only defeat in seven starts (four triple-digit Beyers) up the grades after debut. He outkicked none other than Gun Runner in the GII Pennsylvania Derby and, while he won't be doing that again any time soon, he's actually siring winners at a higher percentage of named foals.

With that bumper crop of weanlings in the pipeline, and now a lenient fee, this looks a good time to re-Connect.

Silver Medal: KARAKONTIE (Jpn)
Bernstein–Sun Is Up (Jpn) (Sunday Silence)
Gainesway $15,000

Karakontie | Sarah Andrew

How pleasing to see this undervalued stallion moving his book back up last year, up to 86 from 48. Perhaps his hour has come at last, now that the minority prepared to breed to a quality turf sire in the Bluegrass have been deprived of English Channel and Kitten's Joy.

If you're enlightened enough to see the growing need for turf quality in the U.S., then you might also recognize that you don't always have to fly first class to Tattersalls. With a fifth crop on the track, Karakontie has still only had 174 starters, but seven have won graded stakes. For the second year running, moreover, he had an elite scorer in She Feels Pretty, winner of the GI Natalma S. before failing by barely half a length to overcome a wide trip in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Karakontie's premier earner Princess Grace meanwhile continued to thrive in Australia, missing Group 1 scores by a neck and half a length.

Even after a hike from $10,000, Karakontie is an awful lot of horse for this fee. He converted some of the most regal blood in the book–his third dam is Miesque herself–into a turn of foot that won him a Group 1 at two and then a mile Classic, before doing all he could to endear the American market in the GI Breeders' Cup Mile. Don't forget that he restores Sunday Silence to the Bluegrass through his dam, herself out of a half-sister to Kingmambo. His international pedigree and participation alike are a measure of our debt to the program that produced him.

The American market has not really grasped its privilege, with this horse, but the elevation in his fee tells you everything you need to know: he's being used by people who want to breed a runner, whether in their own silks or to boost a mare. Actually, Karakontie is perfectly capable of a home run at the sales, including the $525,000 filly at Keeneland in September whose buyers will have been delighted to see her full-sister (who herself made $280,000 the previous year) win the Tepin S. last month. His lesser specimens may struggle commercially, until the environment improves, but that won't trouble those eccentrics who calculate value according to the odds of ending up with a runner.

Gold Medal: MITOLE
Eskendereya–Indian Miss (Indian Charlie)
Spendthrift $15,000

How naïve of me to imagine that all those commercial breeders who flocked to the new sires in 2020 wanted nothing more than to land on the champion freshman of 2023. Because Mitole, as he closes in on those laurels, finds himself the only one of the four Spendthrift sires dominating this table to remain on the same fee in 2024.

Mitole | Louise Reinagel

Now, clearly this farm needs no help in how to make their remarkable machine run smoothly. The Spendthrift team know that Mitole was the one who took the biggest slide of the quartet, in the inevitable slackening of demand for their second crop of yearlings. But they had already ensured that these were conceived more affordably, trimming him from $25,000 in his debut season to $15,000. That was partly a concession to the Covid market, but it also offered such obvious value about a champion sprinter that he maintained the enthusiastic support of 184 mares even last spring, after topping 200 in each of his three previous seasons.

In other words, the system is functioning smoothly and Mitole has played his part so well that he approaches the winning post with a narrow advantage over Maximus Mischief (my serial “gold” pick, I might add, after starting at $7,500!) by prizemoney and also a wafer-thin one by individual winners (32 from 79 starters).

Whether or not he holds out, Mitole is the only one of the four to have a graded stakes scorer–and so joins Flameaway and Solomini in what has been a weirdly unproductive group, by that measure-in GIII Pocahontas S. winner/GI Alcibiades runner-up V V's Dream.

The precocious Maximus Mischief has shown a lot more of his hand (77 starters from 122 named foals) and remember that Mitole (79 from 145) himself only squeezed in a single start at two, in late November. It was as a 4-year-old that he racked up his four Grade Is–including that resonant Met Mile/Breeders' Cup Sprint double, and a stakes record at the intermediate distance in the Forego. So it seems fair to suggest that he has only just got started.

By now Mitole has surely stifled misgivings about his sire, himself after all a brilliant performer and a conduit of corresponding genes. Eskendereya's fifth dam is Cosmah, and doubles up her half-sister's son Northern Dancer top and bottom. It was presumably his unfashionable sire that confined Mitole to $20,000 as a yearling–but then along came kid brother Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow), himself a $17,000 short yearling, to reiterate the merit of a family cultivated by the late Edward A. Cox Jr.

Hot Rod Charlie has now followed Eskendereya to Japan, where they have made a habit of exposing crass commercial trends in Kentucky. But here's a horse making the family assets work even in this less imaginative environment, and his debut at the 2-year-old sales–behind only Omaha Beach in the key freshman medians–suggest that Mitole will be taking out a long lease on the attention of pinhookers.

Sires In The Teens: Breeder Selections

Aidan O'Meara, Stonehaven Steadings

Aidan O'Meara | Keeneland

Gold Medal: Volatile
One of the best angles for success in the commercial breeding field is identifying a future leading stallion in the early stages and this sometimes requires taking a leap of faith breeding when their first runners are about to run. Volatile has been the breakout star at the yearling sales this year, mirroring his sire's first crop results a few years back. He's a beautifully built horse himself and passed his physique on with remarkable consistency. He's been very well supported by breeders and will have plenty of ammo in his first few crops to give him every opportunity. If his offspring have legitimate ability, he will skyrocket up the stallion ranks and $15,000 will look like the deal of the decade.

Silver Medal: Connect
The crop of 2021 has all been overshadowed by Gun Runner's incredible achievements, but Connect has been quietly developing a very solid career for himself. He has shown consistency with three graded stakes winners again this year and a strong supporting cast of stakes horses. He has also shown the ability to get the all-important high-class horse with Rattle N Roll. He measures well in all statistical categories and looks to be a stallion that can establish himself long term in the mold of a Midshipman/First Samurai/Blame type.

Bronze Medal: Audible
The Spendthrift quartet has garnered most of the attention from this year's freshmen and rightly so but one horse is simmering just below these and that horse is Audible. His 14% stakes horses with his first 2-year-olds cannot be ignored and his own racing career suggests there is more improvement to be had as they mature. He's a beautiful horse that can throw the right kind as witnessed by his first crop of yearlings. $15,000 is very intriguing for a horse with some potential future upswing and worst-case scenario has shown plenty of ability for longer term success at this price point.

Peter O'Callaghan, Woods Edge Farm

Peter O'Callaghan | Fasig-Tipton

Gold Medal: Midshipman
This stallion has been very good to us both on the track and in the sales ring. We recently bred first-time-out 2-year-old winner Midshipman's Dance; pinhooked Grade II winner Special Reserve; bred Leucothea and co-bred Amidst Waves, both of whom are multiple stakes winning 2-year-olds. He is a very consistent and well-respected sire, standing for an affordable $15,000. You can sell one well at the sales and he produces winners every weekend at the track.

Silver Medal: Mitole
Obviously a brilliant racehorse and looks to be turning out some good 2-year-old winners this second half of the year. Must be a horse worth a punt at $15,000. We are breeding to him again this year.

Bronze Medal: Vekoma
A brilliant racehorse, a high class 2-year-old who trained on, winning some high-profile races in the GII Bluegrass S. going two turns at three. Then winning the GI Carter H. and GI Met Mile at four in impressive fashion. Furthermore, he is a very well-bred son of Candy Ride (Arg), out of the GISW Speightstown mare Mona De Momma from the family of Mr. Greeley.

He is a good-looking horse who seems to sire plenty of good-looking stock. We have bred to him each year and have bought foals by him in each crop, he has not let us down so far.

I think he is a horse with a legitimate shot to be a sire standing at an affordable fee of $15,000.

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Cody's Wish, out of GI winner Dance Card (by Tapit), is expected to make his final start in the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile after winning the race in 2022. A winner of 10 of 15 career starts, Cody's Wish has never finished out of the first three during his career. He heads into the Breeders' Cup boasting additional GI victories in the Met Mile, the Churchill Downs S., and the Forego S. He matched his career-high Beyer of 112 in this year's Met Mile, the same figure he achieved in last year's Forego, which is the co-top Beyer in 2023, along with Echo Zulu (Gun Runner). In addition, his 112 Beyer last year was bettered only by Flightline and future Darley stud mate Speaker's Corner.

Proxy is expected to make his next appearance on Breeders' Cup Saturday in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic. By Tapit, he has won or placed in a total of 10 graded stakes, including a victory in the GI Clark S. and was within a nose and a neck of two additional Grade I wins in the Santa Anita H. and the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He is out of multiple GI winner Panty Raid (Include), making him the only son of Tapit out of a multiple Grade I-winning mare. The dam has also produced Grade II winner Micheline, a daughter of Bernardini.

Fees for Cody's Wish and Proxy will be announced following the Breeders' Cup.

Said Darley Sales Manager Darren Fox, “It's been another fantastic year for our racing program, highlighted by the likes of Grade I winners Cody's Wish and Proxy. Being able to retire six homebred stallions to our ranks over the past three years speaks volumes to the hard work and dedication of our team from top to bottom.”

The champion first-crop sire of 2020, Nyquist, who stood for $55,000 in 2023, has had a strong 2023 as the sire of GI Alabama S. winner Randomized, GI Awesome Again S. winner Slow Down Andy, GII Amsterdam S. winner New York Thunder–where he ran a 110 Beyer–and the Royal Ascot-winning two-year-old Crimson Advocate. Randomized and Xigera both head next to the Breeders' Cup Distaff, while Crimson Advocate is expected in the Juvenile Turf Sprint.

Medaglia d'Oro (El Prado {Ire})'s stud fee will be $75,000 for 2024, down from $100,000 in 2023. The stallion is North America's leading active sire of worldwide stakes winners with 176. His son Golden Sixty (Aus) is currently the highest-earning horse in training with a bankroll of nearly $19 million. He was the sire of a $1.1 million yearling at Keeneland September, bringing his career total to 55 million-dollar sales horses.

Multiple Eclipse champion Essential Quality (Tapit) and dual Grade I winner Maxfield (Street Sense) will stand at fees of $65,000 and $35,000, respectively, next year. Their first foals will sell at Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton next month.

Street Sense (Street Cry {Ire})'s fee will be at $60,000, Hard Spun (Danzig)'s at $35,000, while second year stallions Speaker's Corner (Street Sense) and Mystic Guide (Ghostzapper) will stand for $17,500 and $12,500, respectively.

DARLEY AMERICA FEES — 2024

Cody's Wish (Curlin)–TBD

Proxy (Tapit)–TBD

Nyquist (Uncle Mo)–$85,000

Medaglia d'Oro (El Prado {Ire})–$75,000

Essential Quality (Tapit)–$65,000

Street Sense (Street Cry {Ire})–$60,000

Maxfield (Street Sense)–$35,000

Hard Spun (Danzig)–$35,000

Speaker's Corner (Street Sense)–$17,500

Midshipman (Unbridled's Song)–$15,000

Mystic Guide (Ghostzapper)–$12,500

Frosted (Tapit)–$10,000

Enticed (Medaglia d'Oro)–$5,000

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“I had a very nice trip,” said winning trainer Steve Asmussen. “I knew there was a lot of speed in the race. I was very confident with him and comfortable where he was traveling. As soon as we passed the three-eighths (pole), I asked him to pick it up, and he picked it up beautiful. Down the lane he just kept coming, and he got the job done.”

The fifth stakes winner for Mendelssohn, Committee of One is out of a half-sister to MGSP Saint Vigeur (Smart Strike) and GSP Victory Way (City of Light). This is also the family of champion 2-year-old filly Sweet Catomine (Storm Cat) and MGISW Life Is Sweet (Storm Cat). The winner has a yearling Mastery half-sister and a weanling half-sister by American Pharoah. Sweetest Sound visited Girvin for 2024. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

A close finish in the Indian Summer S. but #6 Committee of One comes out on top to also break his maiden for trainer Steve Asmussen with @cristiantorr64 in the irons!

The 2-year-old colt went off at 7/1!

#TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/otnimVmsL8

— TwinSpires Racing (@TwinSpires) October 8, 2023

INDIAN SUMMER S. PRESENTED BY KEENELAND SELECT, $243,907, Keeneland, 10-8, 2yo, 5 1/2fT, 1:02.40, fm.
1–COMMITTEE OF ONE, 118, c, 2, by Mendelssohn
                1st Dam: Sweetest Sound, by Smart Strike
                2nd Dam: Sweet Way, by Giant's Causeway
                3rd Dam: Sweet Life, by Kris S.
($80,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP). 1ST BLACK TYPE WIN. O-J. Kirk and
Judy Robison; B-Gatewood Bell, Ken Donworth & Ike Van
Meter (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen; J-Cristian A. Torres.
$145,313. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $190,713.
2–Amidst Waves, 117, f, 2, Midshipman–Troublesome, by Into
Mischief. ($100,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP). O-R. A. Hill Stable,
BlackRidge Stables LLC, Swinbank Stables, Big Tufff Stables and
Black Type Thoroughbreds; B-Woods Edge Farm, LLC &
Ballyfair Bloodstock (KY); T-George Weaver. $46,875.
3–Shards, 118, c, 2, Bucchero–Cynthia's Fury, by Utopia (Jpn).
($175,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR). 1ST BLACK TYPE. O-NBS Stable,
Crown's Way Racing LLC and Kevin Marko; B-Craig L Wheeler
(FL); T-Kelsey Danner. $18,750.
Margins: NO, NK, 4. Odds: 7.67, 1.92, 6.76.
Also Ran: Cowes, Fairhopecurly, Bledsoe, Sponge Bath, Riparound, Pinotslilgirl, Candymaker.

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“Midshipman, the last Grade I winner for Stonerside, became the first Grade I winner from the purchase for Sheikh Mohammed with his Breeders' Cup Juvenile win just a month later. I'm happy to say a great many of us are still with Godolphin, 15 years on. And yes, I admit 'Shippy' gets extra apple slices from me every week, something Nyquist has long been suspicious of as he peers at us from across the aisle of the stallion barn.”

Midshipman (2006 chestnut horse, Unbridled's Song–Fleet Lady, by Avenue of Flags)

Lifetime record: Ch. 2yo colt, MGISW, 8-5-1-1, $1,584,600

Breeders' Cup connections: B-Stonerside Stable (KY); O-Darley Stable; T-Bob Baffert; J-Garrett Gomez.

Current location: Darley America, Lexington, Ky.

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Also entered is $250,000 Keeneland September Yearling Sale grad and $675,000 OBS April Sale purchase Arthur (Uncle Mo). Second dam SW Star of Goshen (Lord At War), who is a half-sister to MGSW Powis Castle (Rare Brick), is responsible for GI Santa Anita Derby champ and runner-up in the GI Kentucky Derby Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker). Trained by Keith Desormeaux, Arthur will be guided by Kent Desormeux. TJCIS PPS

6th-SAR, $136K, Msw, 2yo, 1 1/16mT, 3:26 p.m.
Shifting to the Saratoga grass, Zverev (Oscar Performance) makes his first start after bringing $170,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale before fetching $330,000 at this year's OBS April Sale. The Cherie DeVaux trainee with Ricardo Santana up, is out of MGISW Balance (Thunder Gulch), who is a half-sister to Horse of the Year Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}) and SW Where's Bailey (Aljabr)–dam to two-time GIII Yellow Ribbon H. heroine She's Not Here (Street Cry {Ire}) and her son, GSP Talk of the Nation (Quality Road).

Trained by Chad Brown and with Manny Franco in the irons, another interesting entrant here is $220,000 Keeneland September Sale graduate Walley World (More Than Ready). His dam Forced Family Fun (Uncle Mo), a half-sister to MGSP Cat Burglar (Unbridled's Song), were both produced by Be My Prospect (Forest Wildcat)–half-sister to MGSP Away (Dixieland Band), the dam of MGSW Eight Belles (Unbridled's Song). TJCIS PPS

7th-SAR, $136K, Msw, 2yo, 7f, 4:00 p.m.
Over on the Spa main, Justifiably So (Justify), a $375,000 Fasig-Tipton Yearling Sale purchase, is related to race six's Walley World in that he is out of that runner's second dam, Be My Prospect. The juvenile debuts for Nick Zito with Ricardo Santana at the controls.

Trainer Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado team with Godolphin's well-bred Jefferson Street (Street Sense). Out of an extended female family which includes first-crop sire MGISP Solomini (Curlin), the dark bay colt's dam Apiary (Bernardini) is a full-sister to GIII Go For Wand S. hero Indulgent and a half-sister to MGISW Frosted (Tapit). All are out of MGSW Fast Cookie (Deputy Minister), who is a half to Champion 2-year-old colt Midshipman (Unbridled's Song). TJCIS PPS

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While dozens of their original competitors have been banished to regional or overseas theaters, they have battled their way through and now contest a rather different market. Typically it will be oriented to those rare programs that can either afford to pay the top fees, for the likes of Into Mischief and Tapit, or at least take a longer view on building up families.

So today we must confront head-on the claim that drives so much commercial traffic towards new stallions that will, in the majority of cases, turn out to be standing at career high fees. And that's the idea those few sires that earn the label “proven” tend to become so expensive that investors have no choice but to roll the dice on relatively affordable rookies, hoping to hit a Gun Runner on the way up.

To a degree, of course, that consensus creates its own validity. Commercial breeders know where to anticipate ringside interest and as a result a stallion's debut book, very often, will prove the best he will ever assemble.

Putting that reality to one side, however, I do feel skeptical about the basic premise. For one thing, agents and managers almost invariably back off stallions as soon as they have cycled through their debut crops, long before they have had a meaningful chance to demonstrate whether or not their stock can actually run. But the principal point, and the object of the exercise today, is that there are actually plenty of stallions out there you could describe as both “proven” and affordable.

Despite career stats that will remain far beyond the vast majority of those newcomers annually flooding the gene pool, more likely than not with mediocrity, many of these stalwart operators tend to suffer flagrant commercial neglect. Their books are modest, whether measured by quality or quantity, and unsurprisingly the same then proves true of their sales dividends.

Hence, in turn, their accessible fees. That does mean that some of the horses we highlight today will seldom appeal to a fast-buck commercial breeder. But I'll keep saying it: there should be nothing more commercial than putting a winner under your mare.

So I have every confidence that in this final wrap we're not only looking at some of the worthiest stallions around, but at some of the best value as well. And because of the sheer range of this final group, we'll include rather more than usual in our round-up of near-misses.

The whole process, of course, has represented no more than one more opinion in a massively subjective environment. A ton of deserving stallions will have been overlooked; perhaps even entire farms. But nobody knows better than you what might work for your particular mare, and your particular program.

Many of the choices I've made are based on principles that a lot of people will consider impractical. When I suggest that you can get value from sires whose stock may need time to mature, and a second turn, then I absolutely accept that a lot of people need (and really “need”, as opposed to “prefer”) to get paid sooner and better than that will typically allow. Equally, however, I'm not going to flag up stallions that corral 400 mares in their first two seasons and then get their vaunted black-type action at only a pedestrian rate.

The nature of this particular beast means that we will be revisiting some old pals here. A body of work extending over several years is hardly invalidated by a single quiet one. And, as I've said before, there's no vice harder to overcome than that of being too stubborn!

BUBBLING UNDER:

I hate to admit it, but commercially the game does appear to be up with my old favorite LOOKIN AT LUCKY. It tells you everything about the unwholesome way the business is skewed that he can sire winners of America's two most iconic races and still be reduced to a fee of just $10,000. His scandalous neglect does have one benefit, however, for breeders far-sighted enough to “prove” a young mare inexpensively.

Even now his neighbor Munnings—launched simultaneously but long a darling of the sales ring, now commanding a fee 10 times higher than Lookin At Lucky–cannot beat his elite footprint. Both have 13 Grade I performers, but it is Lookin At Lucky who has produced them at a superior percentage (and, of course, from far inferior opportunity). “Lucky” should be gold on the value podium every year, but there would clearly be no point by this stage. All we can do is hand over the baton on to his big-value sons Accelerate and Country House.

MIDSHIPMAN, another podium regular, has in contrast finally had his remarkable data acknowledged by the doubling of his fee to $20,000. Somehow he can't quite crack that Grade I ceiling, but maintained his astounding consistency at black-type level in 2022, with 25 such performers representing 10.7 percent of starters. He'll have to work harder to achieve the

same profitability from his new fee, having soared to an average of $65,687 (median $50,000) for yearlings conceived at just $8,500, but hopefully his mares will also be upgrading now. What an exemplary horse! He's been a gift for so long, but I am confident he will keep on giving.

Midnight Lute | Sarah K. Andrew

MIDNIGHT LUTE almost achieved the same stakes footprint last year, at nine percent of starters–just shy of his lifetime clip, which has yielded 41 stakes winners including five at Grade I level. These are obviously headed by Midnight Bisou, but we have long since established that this is no one-trick pony. Midnight Lute really has a tremendous output for a horse standing at $12,500 and is another to mock the notion that there are no “proven” stallions out there within reach of the ordinary breeder. He looks after his clients respectably at the sales, too.

Even better stats back up SKY MESA, another whose resumé will remain far beyond the competence of the vast majority of rookies annually launched at much steeper fees than $10,000. Even among “proven” sires, you'll find quite a few at much higher tariffs that can't better Sky Mesa's lifetime 12.5 percent stakes performers-to-named foals.

Another struggling for due respect at $7,500 is FIRST SAMURAI, who nonetheless got on with business as usual in 2022 with another seven stakes winners. His buddy BLAME did not quite meet his own high standards, and rather feels due another star, but he has long demonstrated an ability to recycle his class at a rate better than his $25,000 fee. With that aristocratic pedigree behind him, I've always thought Blame highly eligible to become a distaff influence and so it is already proving. Two of the very best juveniles of 2022, Forte (Violence) and Loggins (Ghostzapper), are both out of Blame mares—surely a hugely significant straw in the wind.

BRONZE: CROSS TRAFFIC (Unbridled's Song–Stop Traffic by Cure The Blues)
$7,500 Spendthrift

Cross Traffic | Spendthrift Farm

To be honest, this lad is not quite in “proven” territory just yet, belonging as he does to the intake immediately preceding the three we grouped together last time as still “earning their stripes”. Even so, it feels like he has been around for quite some time: in his relatively short career he has managed to squeeze in some dazing fluctuations in fortune. He finds himself at another crossroads now, but the fact is that he has just confirmed (for a second time) his ability to punch above this kind of fee.

As champion freshman by multiple indices in 2018, the gray was hoisted to $25,000 for 2019 and duly received a stampede of 188 mares. The resulting crop were juveniles of 2022 and drove a spirited comeback in the all-comers' table of 2-year-old sires. Though this category was conspicuously dominated by freshmen, his 33 individual winners from 79 starters put him second overall; while his 13 black-type juveniles represented a knockout ratio of starters, surpassed in fact only by his latest successor as champion freshman, Bolt d'Oro, and the six-figure covers Quality Road and Constitution.

His four juvenile stakes winners included one unbeaten in both starts at Saratoga, and a filly that flew late into fourth at the Breeders' Cup. But despite doubling down on a reputation for precocity, Cross Traffic's stock is actually entitled to keep building. His principal earner to date, Ny Traffic, won over $900,000 across four campaigns, and remember that Cross Traffic himself only raced as a 4-year-old, when making up for lost time with a GI Met Mile second and GI Whitney success on only his fourth and fifth starts.

He has some pretty exotic names seeding the bottom line, but that certainly hasn't stopped the big horse on this farm and it felt auspicious that Cross Traffic actually elevated his yearling average in 2022 to $43,250 from $29,019, reversing a bleakly familiar trend at this stage of a stallion's career. Unfortunately his books have quickly dwindled since his renewed vogue in 2019, but his juvenile returns in both 2018 and 2022 show what he can do if given a chance—which is surely just what he deserves at this kind of basement fee.

Incidentally, a word here for his studmate JIMMY CREED, who struggled somewhat commercially with his last yearlings but counted dual Grade I winner Casa Creed and GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint third Private Creed among his seven stakes scorers in 2022. His book numbers have held up healthily over the past couple of years and there's a corresponding sense that he has more to offer at just $10,000.

SILVER: HARD SPUN (Danzig–Turkish Tryst by Turkoman)
$35,000 Darley

Hard Spun | Darley

Okay, so he had no real headliner in 2022—dropping out of the top 10 in the general sires' list for the first time in four years—but his customary foil Street Sense ($75,000) was nonetheless the only stallion standing for under six figures to beat 11 stakes winners. In other words, Hard Spun maintained his customary consistency and, moreover, boosted his yearling average to $109,187 from $80,353 the previous year.

That gives a commercial dimension to his principal appeal as the most accomplished sire of runners around at this kind of fee. Hard Spun stands as high as eighth in the earnings table of active American stallions, just ahead of his longstanding accomplice Street Sense. Their ratios across all indices are uncannily similar, for horses who first crossed swords on the track and at one stage even shared a sojourn in Japan together. As Street Sense himself is widely respected as pretty fair value at $75,000, it's remarkable that you can still get to Hard Spun for less than half that fee.

As a parting gift of the breed-changing Danzig, he has duly parlayed that international influence into many different theaters—short, long; dirt, turf—and he is already proving a notable broodmare sire. That's no surprise, when he complements Danzig with all that Darby Dan royalty down the bottom line.

Sure, much like our gold pick, Hard Spun's youngsters tend not to be the most precocious. But they are worth the wait. That capacity to carry speed, after all, is supposedly the grail for breeders. Though he later landed the GI King's Bishop over seven furlongs, Hard Spun held out for second in Street Sense's Derby after setting a pace that left the eventual winner, third and fourth, respectively, in 19th, 13th and 20th after half a mile.

It's a mystery, really: Hard Spun was standing at $60,000 before his year in Hokkaido, and he dominated the fourth-crop sires' table during his absence (ahead of Street Sense, English Channel and Scat Daddy), yet has never since restored his fee to its due level. You wouldn't catch me complaining about that, however, if I had a worthy mare.

GOLD: SPEIGHTSTOWN (Gone West–Silken Cat by Storm Cat)
$80,000 WinStar

Speightstown | Louise Reinagel

So what better way to finish a project like this, where you cannot fail to offend more people than you please, than with a truly provocative pick!?

But while I, too, would love to live in a world where $80,000 feels like a bargain, then we have to accept that value is a relative concept. And, for those folks who really can afford to send a mare to the elite sires, then here's a fee that brings to mind the old advertising slogan: “Hurry while stocks last!”

This is a game of opinion and I absolutely respect your right to share the prejudice against ageing stallions and mares. To me, even so, it has a self-fulfilling quality. The most expensive sires gradually find themselves in competition with their own sons—who start out not only with all the customary freshman fanfare, and a recency bias, but generally at a more accessible fee.  Nonetheless there are copious examples of champion runners and important influences (including the one on the second step of this podium) being delivered very late in the career of their sire and/or dam.

As a very late starter (aged seven) at stud, of course, Speightstown has not had quite as exhausting a love life as his peers: Tapit, for instance, is three years younger but has 1,567 named foals against 1,344 for Speightstown. And the WinStar stalwart evidently remains as potent a genetic influence as ever, with nine new Grade I winners over the last three years.

Take the two most expensive stallions among his established rivals, Into Mischief ($250,000) and Curlin ($225,000). At those fees, they must be man enough to stand comparison. Speightstown has maintained his 130 stakes winners at 9.7 percent of named foals (Into Mischief 8.6 percent, Curlin 8 percent); graded stakes winners at 4.6 percent (Into Mischief 4.1 percent, Curlin 4.5 percent); and his 24 Gråade I winners represent 1.8 percent, exactly the same as Curlin with Into Mischief (obviously started from a lower base of mares) on 0.9 percent.

At this rarefied level, the only pair who can shade Speightstown's ratios are the ever-freakish Tapit, who costs more than twice as much; and War Front, who has always hit incredible percentages but from unusually selective books for this day and age. And while War Front himself arguably now represents value at $100,000, the fact is that some such surgery to his fee had become imperative after his 2022 yearlings, conceived at an eye-watering $250,000, couldn't redeem that sum either by average or median.

Speightstown's latest crop of yearlings, in contrast, averaged $229,450 on a conception fee of $70,000. Having for several years routinely been a six-figure cover, he was hiked back up to $90,000 for 2021 and 2022 as the elite winners just kept on coming. But he has taken a friendly trim this year and, in this giddy context, he looks authentic value for a stallion who now has Olympiad joining half a dozen other sons at stud in Kentucky.

One of those, Munnings, has now overtaken his sire in fee. Pending the testing of Jack Christopher, however, Munnings can hardly be called an established sire of sires as yet; whereas Speightstown has now been in the game long enough to be launching stallions out of his daughters (Vekoma, Laoban, Aloha West) as well.

If this seems an even eccentric way to conclude this series, so be it. But this horse, surely, is an influence that we can all agree on: commercial breeders, pinhookers, end-users. He had the physique and pedigree to cost $2 million as a yearling and duly poured on the speed on the main track. Yet he was also better than ever at the age of six, and has diversified his legacy in terms of distance and surface. His three latest Grade I winners sum him up perfectly, in tests as diverse as the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Dubai Golden Shaheen and Maker's Mark Mile.

The one dimension he has admittedly lacked is precocity, but I would trade that for his old-school soundness. He gets a stellar 83.3 percent of named foals into the starting gate, and narrowly shades even Tapit with 63.5 percent also proceeding to the winner's circle. (To pick on a couple of other stallions standing at fees that require them to face the music: Quality Road ($200,000) gets 56.6 percent winners to named foals; and Uncle Mo ($150,000) 47.1%.)

Speightstown is now 25 and must surely be nearing the final stretch of a storied career. But just think about the great names he compresses to our reach, as a result: first three dams by Storm Cat, Chieftain and Buckpasser. He has retained the vigor to serve 199 mares across the last two seasons and, if you have that kind of money, being granted one of his final audiences would be a privilege beyond price.

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Darley has also added two new stallions to the now-11 horse roster, including G1SW Mystic Guide (Ghostzapper) and GISW Speaker's Corner (Street Sense). Mystic Guide, who won the 2021 G1 Dubai World Cup, was retired earlier this year. He will stand for a fee of $15,000 in his initial season at stud.

Speaker's Corner, a Godolphin homebred out of Tyburn Brook (Bernardini) who is bred on the same cross as fellow Darley stallion Maxfield, won the GI Carter H. in April with a dominating performance and a 114 Beyer Speed Figure. He also won this year's GII Gulfstream Park Mile S. and GIII Fred W. Hooper S. before finishing behind Flightline (Tapit) and Life Is Good (Into Mischief) in the GI Metropolitan H. and GII John A. Nerud S., respectively. He retires with a record of 13-6-2-2 and earnings of $739,963. Speaker's Corner will enter his first season at a fee of $20,000.

“We've been very fortunate in the last two years to have produced five high-level performers [Mystic Guide, Speaker's Corner, Essential Quality, Maxfield, and Cody's Wish] and it's even more gratifying that they are all homebreds,” said Darley Sales Manager Darren Fox. “Following last year's retirement of Essential Quality and Maxfield, to again be able to add more top-caliber horses is very, very exciting.”

Essential Quality and Maxfield, who both await their first foals in the spring, will remain at $75,000 and $40,000, respectively. Both had full books for 2022 in their first seasons. Street Sense will also remain at his 2022 fee of $75,000, while Midshipman will see a fee increase to $20,000.

“Optimism abounds currently in the Thoroughbred industry,” said Fox. “The sales are strong, purses are strong, and close to home, we experienced unprecedented demand during the 2022 booking season. With all these positives, only one of our stallions will see a fee increase for 2023 and that's Midshipman, who continues to go from strength to strength in his stud career.”

The Darley roster is rounded out by Nyquist at $55,000, Hard Spun at $35,000, Frosted at $10,000, and Enticed at $5,000.

Retirement plans for GI Forego S. winner and future Darley stallion Cody's Wish (Curlin) will be made after the Breeders' Cup.

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The winner didn't have any speed in the 12-horse field and settled in the back, second from last yet well in front of Naughty Gal (Into Mischief), the GIII Adirondack S. winner who trailed throughout. After favored Grand Love (Gun Runner) showed the way through :23.74 and :48.07 early fractions, Fun and Feisty remained well behind but was stealthily edging up. Eyes may have been on Grand Love and Friendlypersuasion (Arrogate) exchanging bumps in the stretch, but they were both mugged as Fun and Feisty flew by cleanly on the outside for a widening 3 1/2-length score. Shoplifter (Super Saver), who had been tracking all the way, dove to the inside in late stretch and overpowered Grand Love for the runner-up spot.

“No surprise at all really,” said McPeek immediately following the race. “This was a filly we thought was really good for a long time but she's going to want to go further and I think we're going to have a lot of fun. The [Oct. 7 GI Darley] Alcibiades is next.”

Fun and Fiesty debuted July 4 at Churchill Downs with a sixth going six furlongs and improved to second July 23 when stretched out to seven furlongs at Ellis Park. Third time was a charm, as she broke her maiden Aug. 13 on the Arlington Million card at Churchill even though cut back again to six panels. The Pocahontas marked both her first stretch out and her first stakes win.

The first qualifying race toward next year's GI Kentucky Oaks, worth 10 points to Fun and Feisty, the Pocahontas also went to McPeek in 2015 with Dothraki Queen (Pure Prize) and in 2016 with Daddys Lil Darling (Scat Daddy). Fun and Feisty, a $100,000 McPeek purchase at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July sale, was the priciest of the three. McPeek had picked up Dothraki Queen for $35,000 at Keeneland September and eventually transformed her into a $950,000 Fasig-Tipton November broodmare prospect, while Daddys Lil Darling was a Normandy Farm homebred, eventual GISW, and brought $3.5 million at Fasig-Tipton November.

Pedigree Notes:

The unraced Grouse Grind, a $6,000 purchase by Carlisle Horse Co. at the 2021 Keeneland January sale while carrying a full-sister to Fun and Feisty, has a 2022 colt already named Rule Number Nine (Jimmy Creed) and was bred back to Gormley. The now-yearling full-sister to Fun and Feisty was sold as a weanling at Fasig-Tipton's Midlantic December sale for $36,000 to Cary Frommer. With the Pocahontas score, Fun and Feisty has the first black-type in the immediate family line since her third dam produced a pair of graded winners in Fairbanks (Giant's Causeway) and Keats (Hennessy). That great-granddam is also a half-sister to GSW & MGISP Darn That Alarm (Jig Time).

The 39th black-type winner and eighth graded winner by Darley stallion Midshipman, Fun and Feisty is the 11th stakes winner out of a daughter of First Samurai, who stands at Claiborne.

Saturday, Churchill Downs
POCAHONTAS S.-GIII, $297,536, Churchill Downs, 9-17, 2yo, f, 1 1/16m, 1:45.86, ft.
1–FUN AND FEISTY, 122, f, 2, by Midshipman
1st Dam: Grouse Grind, by First Samurai
 2nd Dam: Artic Queen, by Mr. Greeley
 3rd Dam: Alaska Queen, by Time for a Change
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($13,000 Ylg
'21 KEEJAN; $100,000 Ylg '21 FTKJUL). O-Lucky Seven Stable
(Mackin); B-J Stephen McDonald (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek;
J-Julien R. Leparoux. $174,735. Lifetime Record: 4-2-1-0,
$257,311. Werk Nick Rating: D+.
Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Shoplifter, 122, f, 2, Super Saver–New Shaker, by Bernstein.
1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($12,000 Ylg '21
FTKOCT). O-Anderson Stables, LLC, Eddie Kenneally & Christian
Hays; B-Douglas Scharbauer (KY); T-Eddie Kenneally. $56,850.
3–Grand Love, 122, f, 2, Gun Runner–Grand Prayer, by
Grand Slam. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE.
O/B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen.
$28,425.
Margins: 3HF, 1 3/4, HF. Odds: 6.23, 14.73, 1.06.
Also Ran: Boss Lady Bailey, Friendlypersuasion, Jet Setting, Southlawn, Outofnothingatall, Need Some Money, Kiss Me On Oconee, Justa Warrior, Naughty Gal.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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6th-ELP, $60K, Msw, 2yo, 5 1/2f, 4:10 p.m.

   Godolphin and trainer Brad Cox take the wrapper off homebred LAST COOKIE (Bernardini) Friday at Ellis Park, a son of MGSP Fast Cookie (Deputy Minister) making him a half-brother to MGISW & Darley stallion Frosted (Tapit) and GSW Caramel Swirl (Union Rags). He is also a full-brother to GSW Indulgent. Fast Cookie herself is a half-sister to MGISW & sire Midshipman (Unbridled's Song) and to the dam of MGISP Solomini (Curlin). TJCIS PPs

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