6th-ELP, $70k, Msw, 3yo/up, f/m, 6f, 3:18pm ET
In this six panel dash of 3-year-old fillies, HAPPY CHARGER (Super Saver) and Port Townsend (Uncle Mo) will be separated by a single runner between them. The former is the full-sister to GISW & MGISP Happy Saver and hails from the female line of the great A.P. Indy through third dam Weekend Surprise. The latter is not lacking for family either as the first to the races for an unraced half-sister to two-time champion MGISW Songbird (Medaglia d'Oro). Port Townsend's female line includes the dam of GSW Mico Margarita, and GSW Dean Delivers (Cajun Breeze), who most recently ran third in the GI Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.. TJCIS PPs

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“The April Sale will take place at a key time, two days after Keeneland's Spring Meet and at the start of Kentucky Derby week, when the energy and excitement for Thoroughbred racing are at a high,” Keeneland Vice President of Sales Tony Lacy said. “The auction will be an opportunity to buy or sell quality individuals after spring racing seasons as owners and trainers transition to summer racing.”

Keeneland will accept approved supplemental entries to the April Sale until the sale date. Due to the changeable nature of horses-of-racing-age catalogs, consignments will be stabled and a barn order list produced and distributed around Monday, Apr. 24, when the catalog is close to finalization. A printed version will be available on Monday, Apr. 17 and a supplemental catalog will also be available prior to the sale.

Participating consignors in the April Sale are Claiborne Farm, ELiTE, Four Star Sales, Gainesway, Grovendale Sales, Highgate Sales, Hunter Valley Farm, Mill Ridge Sales, Taylor Made Sales Agency, Tom Amoss Racing Stable and Vinery Sales.

Buyers who plan to attend or participate remotely should register and establish credit within the Keeneland Sales Portal, as soon as possible due to the impending date. Online and phone bidding is available.

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“Baffert refuses to accept responsibility for his wrongful actions…” Churchill Downs Inc. (CDI) wrote in a brief opposing Baffert's motion for a preliminary injunction that they filed late Tuesday in United States District Court (Western District of Kentucky). “Now, as the two-year anniversary of his CDI suspension approaches, Baffert has renewed his motion in a brazen attempt to litigate his way into the 2023 Kentucky Derby.

“This belated, tactical, and meritless motion should meet the same fate as his prior unsuccessful efforts to challenge his suspension,” the CDI filing continued.

CDI also argued that an injunction would injure the connections of other Derby qualifying points earners who would “lose their fairly-earned berths in the Derby to make room for Baffert,” the filing stated.

“An injunction would force CDI to reallocate [Derby qualifying] points, retroactively depriving those owners and trainers of Derby and [GI Kentucky] Oaks berths their horses have earned under CDI's existing rules,” the filing continued. “The harm to these innocent third parties, who have played by the rules, is exacerbated by Baffert's long delay in filing his motion.”

The Hall-of-Fame conditioner's trainees have crossed the finish wire first a record seven times in the Derby.

But it was that seventh Derby winner-Medina Spirit in 2021-who triggered Baffert's banishment when the colt tested positive for betamethasone, a Class C drug, in a post-Derby test.

Citing that positive finding and other drug overages in Grade I races around the same time, CDI told Baffert in June 2021 that he would be ineligible to race at its six U.S. tracks until after the 2023 Derby, and that any horse that raced under his training license would not be eligible to accrue qualifying points to get into the 2022 or 2023 Derbies.

Baffert had initially sued CDI on Feb. 28, 2022, in an attempt to get an injunction enjoining CDI from suspending him from its tracks and races. His complaint alleged civil rights violations related to what Baffert said was a deprivation of his right to due process of law guaranteed under the Fourteenth Amendment.

Separately, Baffert fought unsuccessfully in the courts to try and stave off a 90-day suspension for Medina Spirit's drug overage that had been imposed upon him in February 2022 by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission (KHRC).

Those legal efforts failed, and Baffert eventually had to start serving that KHRC suspension about a month before the 2022 Derby. He transferred his entire California-based stable to the care of other trainers, and his legal team at that time withdrew the motion for an injunction. (Even though his KHRC suspension has already been served, Baffert is appealing that ruling in an effort to expunge it from his record.)

Two horses Baffert trained through March 2022-the $1.7-million FTFMAR buy Taiba (Gun Runner) and 'TDN Rising Star' Messier (Empire Maker)-ran in the 2022 Derby under trainer Tim Yakteen's license, finishing 12th and 15th, respectively.

Baffert renewed his court quest to run in the 2023 Derby on Dec. 15, 2022.

In that filing, his legal team wrote that “Granting an injunction would work no hardship on [CDI]. Numerous rules and regulations already safeguard CDI's interests in health, integrity, safety, and fairness. Baffert has already served his time for the mere allegation of a violation which has yet to be fully adjudicated, and there is no doubt among industry observers and even casual spectators that Baffert suffered consequences for the mere perception of wrongdoing.”

CDI's Jan. 17 response took umbrage with that position.

“The drugging of Medina Spirit happened just months after the Baffert-trained Gamine was disqualified for testing positive for the same drug after finishing third in the 2020 Kentucky Oaks, also held at Churchill Downs Racetrack,” CDI's filing stated. “Baffert's unprecedented back-to-back drug violations cast a pall over CDI's two marquee horse racing events and triggered a national debate over the integrity of the sport.”

By banning Baffert, CDI claimed that it “acted well within its rights to protect the health and safety of its human and equine athletes and to protect its own brand and public confidence in the sport of horse racing… While Baffert has had no shortage of public relations gambits, he has failed to, and cannot, demonstrate his entitlement to a preliminary injunction.”

CDI's filing continued: “Baffert has not shown he will suffer irreparable harm absent an injunction. His 19-month delay in seeking injunctive relief negates any claim of irreparable harm. His primary alleged harm-the loss of purse money-is speculative and would be fully compensable by money damages.

“Nor will he lose his client base or suffer a loss of goodwill absent relief. Since his CDI suspension began, Baffert has run horses in hundreds of races around the world and earned millions of dollars in purse money. And none of his client-affiants say they will transfer horses from his care absent an injunction.”

CDI also alleged that Baffert's due process claim “fails as a matter of law because CDI is a private corporation, the individual defendants are not government officials, and no one violated Baffert's rights.”

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1st-KEE, $150K, Msw, 2yo, 7f, 10:30 a.m.
After working an eighth of a mile in a blazing :9 4/5, ARABIAN KNIGHT (Uncle Mo) achieved a final bid of a sale-topping $2.3 million from Zedan Racing Stables at this year's OBS April Sale after fetching $250,000 at last year's Keeneland September sale. The first foal out of a half-sister to MGSP Kinsley Kisses (Congrats), the bay posted a trio of speedy works on the west coast leading up to his debut including six furlongs from the gate in 1:12 (2/5) Oct. 23 and a five-furlong drill in 1:00 (6/39) Oct. 29. Also taking to the track in the afternoon for the first time Saturday is the Brad Cox trained Rocket and Roll (Bolt d'Oro), himself a $675,000 purchase and the third-highest price out of the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale. His dam, who has produced six winners from as many to make the races, is a daughter of champion grass mare Soaring Softly (Kris S.) and hails from the family of GISW Plenty of Grace (Roberto) and GSW & MGISP Recepta (Speightstown). Rocket and Roll sold twice as a yearling–first for $65,000 at Fasig-Tipton July and for $90,000 a few weeks later at KEESEP. TJCIS PPS

2nd-KEE, $195K, Aoc, 3yo/up, 6 1/2f, 11:05 a.m.
Last seen trailing home longshot winner Rich Strike (Keen Ice) in this year's GI Kentucky Derby, MESSIER (Empire Maker) makes his return to the track back under the tutelage of Bob Baffert. Named a 'TDN Rising Star' for his 6 1/2-length maiden-breaking win, he went on to claim the GIII Bob Hope S. and finished out his juvenile campaign with a narrow loss to Slow Down Andy (Nyquist) in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity. He blew the doors to his 3-year-old year wide open with a 15-length romp in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Feb. 6 before joining trainer Tim Yakteen to finish second behind stablemate and GI Breeders' Cup Classic contender Taiba (Gun Runner) in the GI Santa Anita Derby Apr. 9. Transferred back to Baffert following his distant finish at Churchill Downs, Messier makes his first start Saturday in six months with regular rider John Velazquez aboard. TJCIS PPS

1st-AQU, $85K, Msw, 2yo, f, 1 1/16mT, 10:50 a.m.
   The second foal to make the races out of MGISW I'm A Chatterbox (Munnings), JUNIPER'S MOON (Galileo {Ire}) makes her first start Saturday for trainer Anthony Dutrow. A $725,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase by J.R. International Holdings, the chestnut worked four furlongs from the gate in :48.4 (9/33) Oct. 31 and gets Kendrick Carmouche in the irons. Breaking one gate further out, Natural Beauty (Blame) debuts for Christophe Clement and owner Cheyenne Stable. Herself a $525,000 yearling, she is the first foal out of a half-sister to MGSW Blamed (Blame). TJCIS PPS

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“I couldn't sleep last night,” Reed said after achieving his first Grade I victory and second graded victory in a career that began in 1985. “At four this morning I was wondering if this was real or if it was a dream. I got home and my kids and their friends were there with champagne. I finally told them at 2:30 I had to go up to bed. I just kept seeing him in my head come up the rail.”

As the longest shot on the board in a field of 20 horses at 80-1, Rich Strike took advantage of a crafty ride from Sonny Leon to charge past Epicenter (Not This Time) and Zandon (Upstart) in deep stretch to pull off the second biggest upset in Derby history with Donerail at 91-1 in 1913 serving as the biggest longshot winner.

Next on the agenda most likely will be Reed's first trip to Pimlico and a shot at the GI Preakness S. May 21.

“That's probably the plan,” said Reed, who indicated Rich Strike would return to Churchill Downs to work over the track before deciding on the colt's next start. “I'm not going to do a whole lot with him and I don't like to run back quick. You get one like this in a lifetime and you have to protect him.”

A 17 1/4-length victory in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Churchill Downs last September had served as the only win on Rich Strike's resume until Saturday. A fourth-place finish in the John Battaglia Memorial S. and a third in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks gave Rich Strike 21 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and enough to land a spot on the also-eligible list when entries were taken Monday.

The defection of Ethereal Road seconds before scratch time Friday morning put Rich Strike in the starting gate.

“We were hoping and praying all week just trying to get there,” Reed said. “Then we went a step further than we could have dreamed.”

Despite breaking from post 20, Leon gave Rich Strike a ground-saving trip, immediately moving toward the inside behind a wall of horses shortly after the break and then cutting the corner at the top of the stretch.

“When I saw that move at the quarter pole, I told my dad [Herbert] that might get us on the board,” Reed said. “Then, I don't really remember what happened except my back gave out on me. I ended up on the ground before the horse even crossed the wire. All my friends and family just piled on top of me. He looks great this morning. He ate up everything last night and seems really good. He gains weight after every race and I don't think we've gotten to the bottom of him.”

As for Reed, it was a low-key night as he went back to Lexington where his wife Kay was overseeing the training center and 100 horses.

“My friends drank a lot but I didn't,” said Reed, who has horses entered this week at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Mountaineer and Belterra. “I was happy for my crew and so proud that they got to make the walk [over to the paddock for the Derby].”

Reed's story, coming back to win the Kentucky Derby with his first starter and a first-time Derby rider after a barn fire claimed 23 of his horses and all of his tack and equipment six years ago, is made for Hollywood. And if a movie could been made from this year's Run for the Roses, who would play Reed?

“Maybe Mark Wahlberg,” Reed said with a laugh. “He's short like me.”

One day removed from Epicenter's runner-up effort, Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen was on the track alongside assistant Scott Blasi to continue their normal schedule of training. Epicenter exited the Derby in good order, according to the team.

“We'll just try and move forward. I haven't spoken with [owner] Ron [Winchell] yet but I will later and will figure out what we are going to do next,” Asmussen said.

Zandon was back at trainer Chad Brown's Barn 25 at Churchill Downs Sunday morning.

“We had a really good trip but just weren't able to get the job done,” Brown said.

Tami Bobo's Simplification (Not This Time) came out of his fourth-place effort “very well” according to trainer Antonio Sano.

“I was very happy with his race,” Sano said. “I am going to talk with the owner in the next two days and a make a decision on whether to go to the Preakness or to go home.”

Trainer Tim Yakteen was at Barn 37 Sunday morning to see how his two Derby colts–Messier (Empire Maker), who finished 15th, and Taiba (Gun Runner), who ran 12th–were doing the day after Kentucky Derby 148.

The report was good. Both 3-year-olds were none the worse for wear and would “live to fight another day.”

“My family [his wife, Millie Ball, and his two teenage sons] will be on a plane and headed back to California today,” Yakteen said. “I'm going to stick around for a while. There will have to be some decisions made in the next 48 hours about what's next for these two. Taiba is under consideration for the Preakness, but that call has yet to be determined.”

Reflecting on Messier's effort, he said, “I thought Johnny [Velazquez] rode a good race on Messier. I'm not sure, but maybe we have to consider distance limitations with him.”

In the case of Taiba, who was making only the third start of his career, Yakteen felt the horse was hindered by all the kickback he encountered, causing him to “climb some and be very uncomfortable.”

Also, he noted, “His lack of experience certainly could have played a role in the situation.”

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The last couple of anticipatory days prior to the GI Kentucky Derby can seem like a longer wait than the six-month prep season that preceded it. Here are the final TDN rankings, listed in “likeliest winner” order:

1) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-1-1, $713,000. Last Start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 114. Post 10, 3-1.

Zandon enters the Derby having rightfully earned kingpin status. A beautifully balanced, nearly black colt by Upstart ($170,000 KEESEP), this Chad Brown trainee is light on experience (just four races), but heavy on the “street smarts” he acquired via adversity-overcoming lessons in a trio of nine-furlong graded stakes. Zandon is capable of torqueing into a “Wow!” gear, and I suspect we haven't yet seen the outer limits of his power reserves. He has blossomed from being a scrappy, stretched-out sprinter who put up a spirited fight when second in the roughly run stretch battle of last December's GII Remsen S., to being a big-run closer who now more assertively shoulders rivals out of the way, like when rallying from last in the GI Blue Grass S. a month ago.

Yet, despite his lofty ranking as the likeliest winner, I still have reservations about backing Zandon in the mutuels at or below his morning-line price of 3-1. That's not so much because of a lack of faith in Zandon. The dicey part of the proposition is the same one that emerges every year: Betting any underlaid sophomore in a chaotic 20-horse race over 10 furlongs is usually not the most sustainable move for your bankroll. Zandon's evolving tactics switch–from being a stalker to closing from farther off the tailgate–also gives cause for pause: The last eight Derbies have been won by speed-centric horses who either set or forced the pace.

2) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $1,010,639. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. KY Derby Points: 164. Post 3, 7-2.

Epicenter is the rare “what you see is what you get” Derby contender. Flash and panache aren't his style. But this $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time is as reliable and consistent as they come, with strengths rooted in being able to withstand fraction after fraction of up-tempo splits on the front end while still having enough stamina left to spar through the stretch with anyone who's challenged him so far. He's only lost once (and then just barely) in the last half-year, his Beyer Speed Figures have increased in every start, and Epicenter owns a key victory over both the Nos. 1 and 3 horses on this list.

The main arguments against his chances of winning have to do with historical trends. Epicenter's six-week break between his final prep and the Derby represents a race-spacing pattern that has only produced two winners on the first Saturday in May since 1929. The GII Louisiana Derby is also not a springboard to Kentucky Derby success, with only two horses in 128 years winning both races. Most daunting of all is trainer Steve Asmussen's 0-for-23 record in the Derby. Even if you're willing to dismiss that stat as aberrational because Asmussen has started so many no-hope longshots over the years, it's still a metric that demands respect–especially if the horse in question is the second favorite on the morning line.

3) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-2-0, $549,810. Last Start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 70. Post 5, 20-1.

Once we get beyond the two obvious favorites, the horses ranked at Nos. 3 through 7 shake out as a formidable group of logical contenders, none of whom would be a major surprise to win the Derby. 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy is a case in point. How about 20-1 on the morning line for a colt ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) who came into the year sporting two visually explosive victories as a juvenile, then had a pair of logical excuses in his two sophomore preps? Smile Happy waited too long to move when second in the GII Risen Star S. behind Epicenter, then hit a nice cruising gear but came up short in the stretch when Zandon bested him in the Blue Grass (also factor in that Smile Happy was not cranked to the hilt, training-wise, for either of those efforts).

His sire, Runhappy, was the 2015 champion sprinter, which isn't exactly a plus at 10 furlongs. But this colt's damsire, Pleasant Tap, was third in the 1990 Derby and won champion older horse honors in '92, and Derby winners like Super Saver and Pleasant Colony aren't too far back on each side of Smile Happy's pedigree. In fact, Super Saver in 2010 was the last horse to cross the finish wire first in the Derby who did not previously win a race at age three–just like Smile Happy is attempting to do this year.

4) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-3-3-0, $435,600. Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. KY Derby Points: 40. Post 6, 8-1.

I'm grudgingly respectful of 'TDN Rising Star' Messier, but still not completely sold on him from a pari-mutuel “trust” standpoint. Which colt will show up on Saturday? The one who couldn't seal the deal in a weak, five-horse GII Los Alamitos Futurity as the odds-on favorite? Or the one who unleashed a 103-Beyer when winning besting a (similarly anemic) five-horse crew by 15 lengths in the GIII Robert B. Lewis?

The closer we get to the Derby, the more inclined I am to think that a more polished version of Messier will emerge, and that performance is likely to be based on what he showed us in the GI Santa Anita Derby. This $470,000 FTKSEL colt forced a favored pacemaker through demanding fractions, then had to work hard to try and repulse stablemate and fellow 'Rising Star' Taiba (Gun Runner), who eventually wore down Messier in a length-of-stretch slugfest. But considering that race was the first in eight weeks for this Empire Maker colt, the 99-Beyer try should serve as a very effective tightener. And John Velazquez on a speed-oriented Derby starter? That combo has come up smelling like roses in three of the last five years.

5) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-3-1-2, $515,350. Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 74. Post 13, 20-1.

Simplification joins Smile Happy and Messier, both ranked right above him, as a potentially overlooked horse who's most recent losing effort was much better than it appears on paper. This son of Not This Time ($50,000 RNA at KEENOV) got embroiled in two separate internal speed battles in the GI Florida Derby that sapped his chances for engaging in a more robust stretch run, and if you're in a forgiving mood, Simplification's overall dossier that features five 90+ Beyer tries should make his juicy 20-1 morning-line pricing look attractive. He has, in some ways, rounded into a more natural stalker than some of his contemporaries, so Jose Ortiz should have tactical options in trying to attain a good first-flight spot from post 13.

Simplification | Coady Photo

6) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-0-2, $621,800. Last Start: 1st GII Wood Memorial S. KY Derby Points: 112. Post 1, 20-1.

I had this son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP) solidly entrenched at No. 3 in the weeks before the post draw. But getting stuck with the one hole in a 20-horse crush cost Mo Donegal a few percentage points toward his likelihood of winning. Post one is never ideal in the Derby. But for a colt like Mo who always seems to be snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, the negative effects of being potentially pinned down inside are likely to be amplified. The last Derby winner to break from the rail was Ferdinand in 1986, and it's only been done seven other times since the advent of using the starting gate in the 1930 Derby.

But one advantage for this quick-on-his-feet colt will be Mo's proven ability to move nimbly and with sustained late-race focus, a tactical combination that is unmatched in this field. You want raw numbers to back that up? His winning moves into identical, ground-gaining :12.33 final furlongs in both the GII Remsen S. and the GII Wood Memorial S. represented the quickest final eighths among all 2021-22 preps at nine furlongs.

7) TIZ THE BOMB (c, Hit It a Bomb–Tiz the Key, by Tiznow) O-Magdalena Racing, Lessee. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales History: $330,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 8-5-1-0, $1,044,401. Last Start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks. KY Derby Points: 110. Post 9, 30-1.

There's plenty of upside to this $330,000 FTKSEL colt by Hit It a Bomb if you're willing to avoid getting hung up on the overblown “he won't handle dirt” argument. A deep (by modern standards) foundation of eight races, plenty of experience negotiating large fields (Tiz has won grass and Tapeta stakes in fields numbering 10, 12 and 14 horses), and a knack for (almost) always gaining ground in the final furlong are all in his favor.

The glaring lone exception was a seventh-place try, beaten 20 1/4 lengths, in the GIII Holy Bull S. Feb. 5 over the Gulfstream dirt. But that was a kickback-eating try off a three-month layoff against a talented field that subsequently produced four next-out stakes winners (including Tiz himself). His versatile running style should set up pace-pressing positioning, as trainer Kenny McPeek has indicated he'd like this colt a little closer to the front-end action from post nine.

8) BARBER ROAD (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image) O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY). T-John Alexander Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 8-2-3-1, $650,720. Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby. KY Derby Points: 58. Post 14, 30-1.

In case the skies open up, know that among the Derby's 22 entrants, Barber Road owns the best performance on an outright sloppy track. Several other contenders have won and hit the board on “good” dirt surfaces that were retaining some moisture, but this Race Day gray's second in the Smarty Jones S. back on Jan. 1 rates as the best performance over puddles.

This $15,000 KEENOV colt is an overachieving grinder with a knack for hitting the board despite repeated run-ins with trip trouble. Barber Road has an eight-race base that includes a win and a second at Churchill. Yet he hasn't won since Nov. 10, and he took the easiest prep path to Louisville by campaigning against subpar stakes fields at Oaklawn all winter and spring. Go heavier underneath in exotics than on top to win.

9) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 40. Post 8, 20-1.

Among the three Derby entrants this year who will go into the gate with three or fewer lifetime starts, 'TDN Rising Star' Charge It is the most likely to make an impact. Since 1937, only Justify in 2018 and Big Brown in 2008 have won the Derby off only three prior races, so this Whisper Hill Farm homebred by Tapit is up against the grain of convention. Charge It's not fully focused stretch run in the Florida Derby earned him a commendable second. But any bet on him this Saturday must be based on the unclear projection that he's overcome his greenness via training over the last five weeks.

There is some pedigree promise: Charge It's second dam is multiple Grade I route victress and blue-hen mare Take Charge Lady, whose progeny include the GI Travers S. winner and 3-year-old champ of 2013, Will Take Charge.

10) TAIBA (c, Gun Runner–Needmore Flattery, by Flatter) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc. B-Bruce C Ryan (KY). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $490,200. Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. KY Derby Points: 100. Post 12, 12-1.

Generational super-freak or over-hyped horse being asked for too much too soon? 'TDN Rising Star' Taiba ($140,000 FTKOCT; $1.7 million FTFMAR) is the compelling conundrum of this year's Derby based on two scorching triple-digit Beyer wins that have suggested sky's-the-limit potential.

But this Gun Runner colt's career arc dates only to Mar. 5, and also includes a brief stint on Santa Anita's vet list for being “unsound” after his debut win. He later posted three workouts and rather unexpectedly won the Santa Anita Derby with a smooth, sustained stretch run that looked like it was executed by a more seasoned horse.

Now he'll be shipping for the first time and dealing with a crowded field under possibly wet conditions–all experiences he's yet to encounter in SoCal. Since we don't have much to go on based on Taiba's scant past performances, we have to scrutinize them in more granular fashion. In that vein, it's worth noting that all six rivals Taiba beat in his maiden win have come back to make subsequent starts. Not a single one has won (two were second), and none of them even went off favored despite exiting what appeared to be the most powerful MSW race for 3-year-olds at the meet.

Taiba | Coady Photo

11) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC & La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 112. Post 15, 10-1.

White Abarrio's pros are efficiency, athleticism, and a knack for finding ways to win even when he seems overmatched on paper. His cons include the fact that he's an apparent horse-for-the-course at Gulfstream who had the good fortune to have two ultra-clean winning trips in stakes while a number of his rivals either had trip woes or got cooked by unrealistic pace commitments. This Race Day colt ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) has paired 97 and 96 Beyers in two starts at age three, but the final furlong of his Florida Derby victory was an underwhelming :14.09, and the late stages of the Kentucky Derby are bound to unfold in much faster fashion. We're now going on 17 years–encompassing 33 starters–since the last gray horse won the Derby (Giacomo at 50-1 in 2005).

12) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 6-3-1-1, $521,100. Last Start: 11th GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 66. Post 17, 30-1.

There's no getting around the fact that Classic Causeway's caving from first to last in the Florida Derby is an ugly past-performance line. And when you try and backfit that race against his two tepid-number wirings (88 and 86 Beyers) in two stakes at Tampa, it also doesn't help that the horses he beat in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. and the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby have since compiled a collective 0-for-14 record in their next starts.

But if you want to glean some positivity beyond those blah stats, consider that Classic Causeway's visuals in those victories were extremely eye-catching based on his ability to break like a rocket and still finish up in grace-under-pressure fashion. Back in January, I wrote that the “Giant's Causeway out of a Thunder Gulch mare breeding line that anchors this colt's pedigree is only going to play into Classic Causeway's favor the deeper he advances on the Triple Crown path.” That statement remains true today for this homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper, who will likely try to spearhead the field from post 17.

13) CROWN PRIDE (JPN) (c, Reach the Crown {Jpn}–Emmy's Pride {Jpn}, by King Kamehameha {Jpn}) O-Teruya Yoshida. B-Shadai Farm (Jpn). T-Koichi Shintani. Lifetime Record: GSW-UAE, SW-Jpn, 4-3-0-0, $734,569. Last Start: 1st G2 UAE Derby. KY Derby Points: 100. Post 7, 20-1.

Crown Pride (Jpn), who celebrated his third birthday May 4, has gotten rave reviews since arriving at Churchill for his poise, posture and footwork during morning training, which has been a unique mixture of dressage-style warming-up and more frequent workouts. And no doubt Japan-based horses have been on a global roll at major racing events over the past six months, with big wins on the Breeders' Cup and Dubai World Cup programs.

He's 3-for-4 on dirt with all three victories at nine furlongs or greater, and a trouble excuse for his sixth when only beaten 3 1/2 lengths. Crown Pride got solidly bumped at the break of the G2 UAE Derby, then unwound with a long drive on his incorrect lead in deep stretch that reeled in the pacemaker on a track that was favorable to speed.

Japan's dominant rider, Christophe Lemaire, will be aboard in Louisville, hoping to break two negative historic trends: Japan-based horses have gone 0-for-3 in the Derby, and winners of the UAE Derby are 0-for-11 (with the best Derby finish among them a sixth, along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try).

14) PIONEER OF MEDINA (c, Pioneerof the Nile–Lights of Medina, by Eskendereya) O-Sumaya U.S. Stable. B-International Equities Holding, Inc. (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $485,000 RNA ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 6-2-1-2, $181,350. Last Start: 3rd GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby. KY Derby Points: 25. Post 11, 30-1.

Pioneer of Medina, a $485,000 RNA at KEESEP, will be looking to avenge the second-place finish by his sire, Pioneerof the Nile, in the 2009 Derby. This colt was third and fourth on the Louisiana prep route to Louisville–not badly beaten, lengths-wise, but not a high-impact player, either. He'll be taking blinkers off Saturday after four races with them (they were added after start number two and propelled him to MSW and allowance wins). Trainer Todd Pletcher is technically 0-for-10 when removing blinkers in graded stakes over the past five years. But that small sample also includes the DQ of Vino Rosso from first in the 2019 GI Jockey Club Gold Cup–and that colt in his next start won the GI Breeder's Cup Classic sans blinkers, too.

15) TAWNY PORT (c, Pioneerof the Nile–Livi Makenzie, by Macho Uno) O-Peachtree Stable. B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY). T-Brad H. Cox. Sales History: $430,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $427,000. Last Start: 1st GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. KY Derby Points: 60. Post 18, 30-1.

Tawny Port ($430,000 KEESEP) started his career with two Tapeta wins, then was not disgraced when fifth, beaten 7 3/4 lengths against Epicenter, Smile Happy and Zandon in New Orleans. This Pioneerof the Nile son then chased Tiz the Bomb home when second in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. at Turfway and was four wide on both bends when winning the GIII Lexington S. in a cutback to 1 1/16 miles. Maybe he'll turn out to be this year's Charismatic, who upset the 1999 Derby at 31-1 odds and remains the only horse to ever parlay wins in the Lexington S. and the Derby.

16) CYBERKNIFE (c, Gun Runner–Awesome Flower, by Flower Alley) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Kenneth L. & Sarah K. Ramsey (KY). T-Brad H. Cox. Sales History: $400,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-2-0, $860,000. Last Start: 1st GI Arkansas Derby. KY Derby Points: 100. Post 16, 20-1.

The GI Arkansas Derby winner has been described kindly as a “high-energy horse.” But earlier in the season trainer Brad Cox minced no words in saying he's a “tough horse to deal with.” Getting DQ'd from a win, tossing his jock in the post parade, and barreling through the pack while swerving through the lane have all been part of the makeup of this $400,000 FTKSEL colt. He's improving at the right time of year, but still, you have to wonder if Cyberknife is bred to be a later-than-May bloomer.

His sire, Gun Runner, wasn't a dominant force at age three, but he evolved into one over the course of the next year. And Cyberknife's damsire, Flower Alley, was a no-impact ninth in the 2005 Derby who peaked later that summer by sweeping the GII Jim Dandy S. and GI Travers S. at Saratoga.

Cyberknife | Coady Photo

17) ZOZOS (c, Munnings–Papa's Forest, by Forestry) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Barry & Joni Butzow (KY). T-Brad H. Cox. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-2-1-0, $291,200. Last Start: 2nd GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby. KY Derby Points: 40. Post 19, 20-1.

This 'TDN Rising Star' and homebred for Barry and Joni Butzow was on his left lead through the stretch of his MSW win, uncorked a powerful turn of foot at the quarter pole of his allowance victory, then led for as long as he could through the long Fair Grounds stretch in the Louisiana Derby before the much more experienced Epicenter reeled him in. That's a nice block of races to build on, but his overall grade is still “incomplete.” Zozos's sire, grandsire and damsire (Munnings, Speightstown and Forestry) all were crack sprinters, so there's not much Derby-distance promise in his immediate pedigree. Neither post 19 nor the historically non-productive six-week gap between starts will help.

18) ETHEREAL ROAD (c, Quality Road–Sustained, by War Front) O-Julie Gilbert & Aaron Sones. B-Paul Pompa Jr. (KY). T-D. Wayne Lukas. Sales History: $90,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 7-1-1-1, $294,545. Last Start: 4th GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. KY Derby Points: 22. Post 20, 30-1.

Ethereal Road will be making his third start in four weeks on Saturday because he spent the month of April scrambling for qualifying points. But you have to go back to January and February to find his most competitive races. This D. Wayne Lukas-trained $90,000 KEESEP colt gave up four paths of real estate on both turns in the slowly run GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn, yet he led from the quarter pole until 50 yards before the wire in what amounted to a pretty nice try coming off a maiden win. He's drawn way out wide in post 20, but has ample experience in sizable fields, with all seven of his races featuring 11 or 12 horses.

19) SUMMER IS TOMORROW (c, Summer Front–Always Tomorrow, by Badge of Silver) O-Michael Hilary & Negar Burke. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Bhupat Seemar. Sales History: $25,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA '20 KEESEP; £120,000 2yo '21 ARQMAY. Lifetime Record: GSP-UAE, 7-2-3-0, $267,606. Last Start: 2nd G2 UAE Derby. KY Derby Points: 40. Post 4, 30-1.

With a six-sprint foundation at Meydan and Jebel Ali and a Derby gate draw of post four, there should be no doubt that the strategy for this late Triple Crown supplement and three-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA at KEESEP; $169,743 ARQDEA) will be to send and try to stave off the competition for as long as he's able. Over 1 3/16 miles in the UAE Derby, this son of Summer Front sought the lead and held well until the deep stages. A reality check looms Saturday against a far superior field that will include multiple waves of pace-pressers and closers.

20) HAPPY JACK (c, Oxbow–Tapitstry, by Tapit) O/B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Doug F. O'Neill. Sales History: $0 RNA wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-0-2, $182,200. Last Start: 3rd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. KY Derby Points: 30. Post 2, 30-1.

Blinkers were removed then added over the past several races, and will now come off again for Happy Jack, a Calumet Farm homebred who got buried down in post two after qualifying for the Derby with points earned by running a distant third in the Santa Anita Derby. He broke his maiden sprinting in a 24-1 debut on Lasix, but has been trounced by 49 1/2 lengths in three subsequent non-Lasix stakes routes. Sire Oxbow won the 2013 GI Preakness S. for Calumet at 15-1 odds, and Happy Jack is out of a Tapit mare, so bloodlines are theoretically in his favor. Jockey Rafael Bejarano is 0-for-11 in the Derby.

The also-eligibles, listed on the program as No. 21 Rich Strike (Keen Ice) and No. 22 Rattle N Roll (Connect), can draw into the Derby if late scratches occur.

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Working on his own at 7:30 a.m. over a fast track with regular morning partner Kriss Bon aboard, the Chad Brown pupil completed the five furlongs in 1:00.40 (7/43). Churchill Downs clockers caught Zandon in fractions of :12.80, :25, :36.80, 1:00.40 and out in 1:12.80 and 1:26.40.

“I just didn't want to take any chances with the weather forecast, even though it looks better for tomorrow,” Brown said. “The track is in fabulous shape. You're not going to get a better track to train over than we got this morning.

Zandon 5F 1:00.40. Splits: 12.80 25 36.80/112.80 126.40. #KyDerby pic.twitter.com/clPc8ClW7X

— Kevin Kerstein (@HorseRacingKK) April 29, 2022

Working about the same time at Gulfstream Park was GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth winner Simplification (Not This Time), who worked five furlongs in 1:00.44 (1/10) for trainer Antonio Sano over a muddy track. Junior Alvarado was aboard for the work.

“I'm very happy with the work,” Sano said. “He went very easy and handled everything. The jockey said he was better than last week. It was a really, really good work for the horse…I am 100% confident in my horse. I know the race is very strong, but I'm confident in the horse. I think this is a better horse than Gunnevera (Dialed In).”

A few hours later at Santa Anita, Messier (Empire Maker), the runner-up in the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, worked six furlongs in 1:11.60 for trainer Tim Yakteen.

Six GI Longines Kentucky Oaks contenders had their final works Friday morning, including the Todd Pletcher-trained trip of Nest (Curlin) (4f :48.60), Shahama (Munnings) (5f 1:01.2) and Goddess of Fire (Mineshaft) (5f 1:01) for next Friday's $1.25 million race over a fast track.

Working first during the 7:30-7:45 a.m. training window for Kentucky Derby and Oaks runners was GI Central Bank Ashland S. victress Nest with Irad Ortiz in the irons. Working in company, Nest produced fractions of :24.20 and :48.60 and galloped out in 1:01 and 1:14.

“It's 21 days after the Ashland and it was a solid work,” Pletcher said. “She finished good and galloped out strong.”

Nest (@iradortiz) inside Inventing (@Ameliajgreen) 4F 48.60 #KyOaks pic.twitter.com/mEzpPaecES

— Kevin Kerstein (@HorseRacingKK) April 29, 2022

Working together were GII Gulfstream Park Oaks runner-up Goodess of Fire with Humberto Zamora aboard and G3 UAE Oaks winner Shahama with Oaks rider Flavien Prat aboard.

Shahama was on the inside with fractions of :25.40, :37.20, :49.20, 1:01.20 and out in 1:13.60, 1:26.20 and 1:40.40. Goddess of Fire had fractions of :25.20, :37, :49, 1:01 and out in 1:13.40, 1:26 and 1:40.20.

“I wanted them to do a little more than Nest,” Pletcher said. “They both finished well and galloped out strong.”

GII Fair Grounds Oaks runner-up Hidden Connection (Connect) breezed a half-mile in :50.20 for trainer Bret Calhoun Friday at Churchill under jockey Reylu Gutierrez.

“Her work last week was great and today, even though it was easier, it was just as impressive,” Gutierrez said.

GII Rachel Alexandra S. heroine Turnerloose (Nyquist) covered five panels in 1:01.20 under exercise rider Edvin Vargas.

“She's fit and ready to go,” trainer Brad Cox simply stated.

Also on the Churchill worktab was GIII Gazelle S. runner-up Venti Valentine (Firing Line). She worked five furlongs in 1:00.80, with splits of :13, :24.80 and :36.80, galloping out six furlongs in 1:14.

“That's the way she gallops,” said Francisco Abreu, brother to trainer Jorge Abreu, who supervised the filly's workout. “The first part, she's a little anxious, then she calms down a little. It was just a maintenance work for her; she had a strong final work was a week ago.”

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1) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-1-1, $713,000. Last Start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 7. KY Derby Points: 114.

Zandon won sprinting at first asking while never more than two lengths off a rapid tempo. Stretched to nine furlongs in the GII Remsen S., he stalked the pace and was in it to win it right down to the final jump. Then he started rallying from farther back. This $170,000 KEESEP colt broke in the air, got relegated to last, then accelerated widest on the far turn when third in the GII Risen Star S. His GI Blue Grass S. score was accomplished via meticulous last-to-first handling by Flavien Prat. So which running style will Zandon deploy on Derby day? Handicappers considering backing (or betting against) him will want to know, especially in light of the fact that the last eight Derbies have been won by horses either on the lead or not far from it. It's easy to fall in love with closers because of the dramatic nature of their runs. But if you marveled at Prat's deft outside-inside-outside maneuvering through the far turn and upper stretch of the Blue Grass, you can also envision how that same strategy might result in getting boxed or blocked in the heavy traffic of a 20-horse field. That's why speed is so effective in the Derby. The very nature of out-front positioning affords those horses the advantage of leaving chaos behind-where deep closers are more likely to encounter it.

2) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $1,010,639. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 164.

Epicenter will have a tactical edge over Zandon on Derby day because he's a more proven commodity who has shown over a larger sample of races that he can consistently attain optimal positioning. This $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time doesn't need to lead the cavalry charge into the first turn. But he does figure to be forcing the issue, and the fact that he's been the leader at the eighth pole in every one of his races (except his maiden sprint debut) suggests he's highly likely to be 1-2-3 turning for home. But you have to wonder if history will be Epicenter's friend as he tries to gut out that final quarter mile. A six-week break between a final prep and the Derby has only yielded two winners on the first Saturday in May since 1929, and only two horses since the 1894 inception of the GII Louisiana Derby have also crossed the finish wire first in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen, despite his many accomplishments, is 0-for-23 in the Derby. But that unappealing stat is largely based on his having started so many “just taking a shot” horses over the past two decades who weren't true contenders. Outside of Gun Runner (third in 2016) and Curlin (third in 2007), there are no A-list luminaries among Asmussen's mostly forgettable list of Derby also-rans.

3) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY).
T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-0-2, $621,800. Last Start:
1st GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

If Zandon's strong suit is athleticism fused with fighting spirit, and Epicenter's is rock-solid consistency, Mo Donegal rates an edge in terms of late-race torque that is both visually impressive and backed by strong final-eighth times in nine-furlong races. His identical, ground-gaining :12.33 final furlongs in both the GII Remsen S. and the GII Wood Memorial S. are the quickest among all 2021-22 Derby preps at that distance. This $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo has never lost ground in the stretch runs of his five career races, and in each of his three wins he had to wrest control from leaders who punched back with purpose. But from a historical perspective, it's been a long time since the path to Louisville ran through New York. Only three horses in the last 58 years-Thunder Gulch, Go for Gin and Pleasant Colony-have parlayed Remsen and Derby wins. It's also been 22 years since the Wood winner went on to capture the Derby (Fusaichi Pegasus). Yet if Mo Donegal were to win the Derby, he'd match Pleasant Colony's rare 1980-81 triple of winning the Remsen, Wood and the Derby.

4) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-3-1-2, $515,350. Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 74.

The road to the Derby is annually littered with horses who appear dominant in Florida's shorter winter preps yet can't carry their winning to 10 furlongs in the spring. Can Simplification jump that gap? The No. 4 spot in this week's rankings is where “raw ability” gives way to “the promise of possibility.” This son of Not This Time ($50,000 RNA at KEENOV) was a starter in all four of Gulfstream's sophomore preps for the Derby-wiring the one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man S.; botching the break but closing well to get second in the GIII Holy Bull S., then winning the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. with a prolonged bid from three-eighths out. His beaten-fave third in the GI Florida Derby has a legit excuse attached to it, as Simplification sparred with a sacrificial pacemaker, then got immediately hooked into a second duel when jockey Jose Ortiz decided to fully unleash him with 4 1/2 furlongs left in the race. A Derby scenario in which Simplification gets asked for his best run a little later might be better suited to his still-evolving stalking style.

5) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY).
T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $321,500. Last Start:
2nd GII Wood Memorial S. Next Start: TBD. KY Derby Points: 50.

Early Voting is the highest-ranked horse on this list whose connections have yet to fully commit to a start in the Derby. Trainer Chad Brown his cited Early Voting's light experience (just three races) and a desire to see where this $200,000 KEESEP frontrunner fits in the Derby's projected pace as several reasons for waiting to make a decision. Early Voting set a spirited tempo despite being relatively unpressured in the early stages of the Wood Memorial, and Jose Ortiz wisely chose not to overextend this colt in a late-race stretch skirmish when second against the more experienced Mo Donegal. If Early Voting presses on to the Derby, Ortiz will face a commitment choice, as he also has been riding No. 4-ranked Simplification.

6) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-2-0, $549,810. Last Start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 70.

It's tough to knock Smile Happy's two sophomore starts. But it's also difficult say with confidence this 'TDN Rising Star' has demonstrated significant progression off his 2-for-2 juvenile campaign. That juxtaposition of undefeated form at age two and a winless season so far at age three is likely to get you about 12-1 on Derby day if you're willing to bet trainer Kenny McPeek has, in fact, precisely honed this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) to peak over 10 furlongs. Smile Happy was a hard-charging second in the GII Risen Star S. after jockey Corey Lanerie waited too long to uncoil on the far turn, then split horses in upper stretch and ran up on the heels of a tiring rival. In the Blue Grass S., Lanerie's move was timed much better. But after Smile Happy snatched the lead from the pacemaker at Keeneland's quarter pole, Zandon blew by him at the furlong marker. A clean trip in the Derby puts a tighter Smile Happy in the hunt for getting first run at the pacemakers on the far turn.

7) TIZ THE BOMB (c, Hit It a Bomb–Tiz the Key, by Tiznow) O-Magdalena Racing, Lessee. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales History: $330,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 8-5-1-0, $1,044,401. Last Start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, TP, Apr. 2. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 110.

Tiz the Bomb has eight races of experience, with seven starts at a mile or longer. He's won over dirt, over both “good” and “firm” turf, over the undulating Kentucky Downs lawn, and over Turfway's Tapeta. His past performances show the most experience in large fields-he won a 14-horse Grade II stakes at age two, and has three other times finished first or second in races with 12 and 13 starters. Yet despite this broad base of experience, this $330,000 FTKSEL colt by Hit It a Bomb figures to be “on sale” in the Derby mutuels simply because he ran one poor, kickback-eating dirt race off a three-month layoff (the Feb. 5 GIII Holy Bull S., from which the first three finishers all returned to win graded stakes). Based on that one aberrational performance, bettors are likely to deduce that Tiz the Bomb will be averse to the dirt at Churchill. And he just might be-you never know until the gates open. But you'll be getting an overlaid 25-1 or so to find out of his multi-surface staying power works on the Louisville dirt, as opposed to the 15-1 price that more realistically corresponds to Tiz the Bomb's chances.

8) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

A bet on 'TDN Rising Star' Charge It in the Derby will require a leap of faith that he has matured significantly through the month of April and into the first week of May. You can see the raw makings of a really nice racehorse based on just three starts. And Charge It's pedigree (by Tapit and anchored by distance-loving second dam Take Charge Lady) definitely has longer-the-better underpinnings. But while his second in the GI Florida Derby was commendable considering it was his initial two-turn try and first race against winners, Charge it was not fully focused through the lane, and the Florida Derby's blah final furlong in :14.09 was the second-slowest final eighth among all nine-furlong preps this season (behind only the muddy GIII Withers S. in :14.15). In addition, 13 horses have now run back out of Charge It's two MSW races, and not a single one of those rivals won their next start, raising legit quality-of-competition questions.

9) TAIBA (c, Gun Runner–Needmore Flattery, by Flatter) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc. B-Bruce C Ryan (KY). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $490,200. Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby.

We have owner Amr Zedan diplomatically asserting he's not out to avenge his under-appeal Derby DQ of now-deceased Medina Spirit–even after having gone against the advice of his trainer by insisting on a Santa Anita Derby start so Taiba could earn last-chance Kentucky Derby qualifying points. We also have Hall-of-Fame jockey Mike Smith, who's about to be asked ceaselessly over the next 2 1/2 weeks to compare this precocious 'TDN Rising Star' to Justify, the dazzling Triple Crown winner he rode in 2018. So what will be the result when the narrative of redemption gets coupled in mainstream media with the sky's-the-limit appeal of a flashy, undefeated prospect? Probably the most overbet Derby phenom in a long time. Yes, this son of Gun Runner ($140,000 FTKOCT; $1.7 million FTFMAR) is worthy of superlatives after posting back-to-back triple-digit Beyers in both a MSW sprint and the Santa Anita Derby, a race in which this colt sparred the entire length of the lane against a more seasoned stablemate. But Taiba would truly have to be a once-in-a-generation outlier to thrive against top-of-the-crop competition at 10 furlongs in lifetime start number three, all while shipping for the first time and experiencing a field far larger and far more talented than anything he's faced in limited SoCal action. Too much too soon is the verdict here-although admittedly, it would be pretty neat to witness Taiba shatter conventional wisdom.

10) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-3-3-0, $435,600. Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

I'm attempting to take a more forgiving look at Messier's Santa Anita Derby second, a race I initially described as a “failure to slam the door.” After all, this $470,000 FTKSEL 'TDN Rising Star' forced a favored pacemaker through robust fractions, then, somewhat unexpectedly, had to work hard to try and swat away a more-resilient-than-expected Taiba (Messier initially put away that stablemate in upper stretch, but Taiba re-engaged and powered past). Considering the Santa Anita Derby was the first outing in eight weeks for this Empire Maker colt-and taking into account that Messier was unlikely to have been fully cranked for the effort-the try wasn't half bad (99 Beyer). But the sticking point I can't quite overcome is Messier's penchant for losing at low odds. He's twice been beaten at fifty cents on the dollar, including a no-excuse letdown in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity when he was one-paced after getting a strong second run on the spent speed.

11) BARBER ROAD (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image) O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY). T-John Alexander Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 8-2-3-1, $650,720. Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 58.

Barber Road ($15,000 KEENOV) isn't going to wow anybody in the Derby. But this gritty Race Day gray might be capable of hammering past a good portion of the field with his usual late-race determination, and he figures to be picking off horses when distanced-challenged contenders are bailing out. Of all the entrants who'll start north of 40-1 in this year's Derby, I respect this John Ortiz trainee the most. He lost a shoe at some point in the Arkansas Derby, then lost momentum a furlong from the finish when he ran up on the heels of a caving pacemaker. But Barber Road was keen to re-rally, and he prevailed in the “race within the race” by nailing the favorite in a tight place photo. This is all pretty good no-pressure Derby mojo for a colt who's already bankrolled more than 36 times his auction price.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC & La Milagrosa Stable, LLC.
B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

The Florida Derby has produced more Kentucky Derby winners (24) than any other stakes, and the winners of that Gulfstream prep are usually well backed in Louisville. But this year White Abarrio ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) figures to be the first Florida Derby winner since Materiality in 2015 to go off at 10-1 or higher in the wagering. This athletically nimble Race Day gray has some “punch above his weight” appeal, and we've already seen him beat such well-regarded contenders as Simplification (twice), Mo Donegal, Charge It and Tiz the Bomb. But this Gulfstream specialist (4-for-4) benefitted from ideal circumstances in both of this graded stakes victories, making you wonder if he can improve further under the duress of 10 furlongs. In the traffic-snarled Holy Bull S., White Abarrio enjoyed clear sailing up front while four of his main foes encountered trip woes. And in the Florida Derby, three of White Abarrio's rivals were casualties of poorly executed pace decisions that led to two separate, self-immolating speed duels before the field hit the far turn.

Potentially rounding out the starting gate…

13) Zozos (Munnings): It was interesting that Zozos got bet down to 5-2 second choice behind even-money Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby. That was both his stakes debut and first non-Lasix race after winning his maiden and an allowance, and Zozos had never led the field in the early stages of either of those first two victories. But this 'TDN Rising Star' and homebred for Barry and Joni Butzow forged straight to the front and held well after setting legit splits under two-pronged pressure from a hounding 15-1 long shot and the more intimidating Epicenter, who eventually powered past for the win. Right now Zozos is a true wild card for the Derby. Is he a piece of the pace? A capable presser on the improve? His sire, grandsire, and damsire (Munnings, Speightstown, Forestry) all made their marks sprinting, so there's not much distance-centric foundation in his immediate family.

14) Morello (Classic Empire): A points qualifier who remains uncommitted, Morello ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) went off as the undefeated favorite in the Wood Memorial, but he hit the side of the gate at the break and never really recovered. He's 3-for-3 in one-turn races, but untested in terms of both distance and his ability to handle elite-level competition.

15) Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}): He won't truly turn three until May 5, but the GII UAE Derby victor is 3-for-4 on dirt with all three victories at nine furlongs or greater. Since the 2000 inception of the UAE Derby, 11 of its winners have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish among them was sixth, along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try.

16) Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile): This $430,000 KEESEP colt has some likeable attributes, but not enough to elevate him to a serious Derby threat. He started his career with two Tapeta wins; was not disgraced when a 24-1 fifth, beaten 7 3/4 lengths on the dirt against Epicenter, Smile Happy and Zandon, then chased Tiz the Bomb home when second at Turfway. He closed capably on Saturday to win the GIII Lexington S. over 1 1/16 miles, cornering four wide on both turns. Originally with the pace, Tawny Port backed off, then sprang a late run with his head cocked toward the stands while the only one gaining ground on a tiring leader. This colt finished well, but he faced no daunting late-race competition over Keeneland's short-stretch configuration.

17) Cyberknife (Gun Runner): In the Arkansas Derby, jockey Florent Geroux sensed Cyberknife was keen early. So he opted out of dueling through a first quarter in an unsustainable :22.11, then barreled through three successively slower quarter-mile splits and a final eighth in a so-so :13.18 to win going away while shifting and drifting through the lane. Not exactly a work of art for this $400,000 FTKSEL colt, but that initial Grade I impression won't matter much if Cyberknife keeps winning and his Beyers remain on an upward arc (last three: 72, 87, 92).

18) Un Ojo (Laoban): The 75-1 winner of the GII Rebel S. has only one functioning eye because of an unfortunate run-in with a tree branch as a yearling. The last time there was a right-eye-only horse in the Derby was in 2017, when Patch ran an admirable 14th despite drawing outermost gate 20. Because his “overcoming adversity” story kept getting repeated, Patch went off way, way underlaid in the betting at 14-1. Will similar support be bestowed upon Un Ojo? We know he can save ground and make one chug-home run. Rain would also be a plus-his two best races occurred on a muddy track (second in the Withers) and on an Oaklawn surface listed as “fast” when the Rebel commenced in a just-starting downpour.

19) Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front): Seven races in Dubai at Meydan and Jebel Ali since Dec. 2, with the first six of them at seven furlongs or shorter (two wins). Three-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA at KEESEP; $169,743 ARQDEA) sought the lead in the UAE Derby and held well until the deep end of the Meydan stretch. Trainer Bhupat Seemar has never started a horse in North America under his own license, but he worked for five years under Bob Baffert two decades ago, including when that stable won the 2002 Derby with War Emblem.

20) Happy Jack (Oxbow): He's winless beyond the maiden ranks from five starts and has never been closer than 10 1/2 lengths to the winner in any of his three Santa Anita stakes against short fields. Best Beyer is 83. Yet he currently holds the final Derby qualifying position based on his accrued 30 points.

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Having earned 'Rising Star' status himself and a gaudy 103 Beyer Speed Figure when airing by 7 1/2 lengths sprinting here Mar. 5 while a member of the Bob Baffert barn, Taiba was one of three Santa Anita Derby runners transferred to Yakteen from the suspended Baffert. The winner carries the same silks as ill-fated Medina Spirit (Protonico), whose betamethasone positive in last year's GI Kentucky Derby sparked Hall of Famer Baffert's recent troubles. Zedan and Baffert are also part of the connections responsible for last month's G1 Dubai World Cup hero Country Grammer (Tonalist).

Forbidden Kingdom–perhaps a slightly surprising favorite at even-money over 13-10 Messier–bobbled a tiny bit from the gate but took early command as expected. Taiba was away second fastest, but Messier moved up inside of him into the first bend before Forbidden Kingdom floated them both slightly wide. Mike Smith on Taiba elected to drop in and save some ground down the backside, as Forbidden Kingdom doled out splits of :22.75 and :46.70 with Messier only applying token pressure. Messier turned up the heat after six panels in 1:10.97, and Taiba drafted just in behind them while clearly full of run. Forbidden Kingdom was out of gas at the quarter pole and offered little resistance to Messier. Messier looked briefly like he might shut the door on Taiba as that one bobbled while switching leads, but Taiba soon leveled off, displaying the impressive stride he had just over a year ago at Gulfstream to cruise past Messier under a hands-and-heels ride. Messier was 2 1/4 lengths back, but another 10 clear of Happy Jack (Oxbow), who narrowly spoiled an all-Yakteen trifecta over Armagnac (Quality Road).

“When one comes along like that, he showed he was really good,” said Smith, who has now won four of the last five Santa Anita Derbies and five overall. “He didn't really get away very well. In the first turn, I didn't want to get in the way. I wasn't in any hurry. I felt the others would do the dirty work for me and it set up just fine. He showed just how special he is. He belongs with anyone. He just recovers really well. I'm not getting any younger. As I get older, I have felt that something special is going to happen. This just may lead to that. The sky's the limit.”

Yakteen was visibly nervous before the race, and had sent out heavy favorite Adare Manor (Uncle Mo)–also a Baffert transfer–to be narrowly upset at short odds in the GII Santa Anita Oaks earlier on the card.

“You could have poured me out of a shot glass earlier, but these two horses represented me unbelievably in this race and I'm just absolutely thrilled, floored with the effort that Taiba put forth,” he said. “That was a sensational race, he's just a super horse.”

Taiba picked up 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points for the win, while Messier–previously ineligible for points during his earlier exploits for Baffert–earned 40 points.

Saturday, Santa Anita Park
RUNHAPPY SANTA ANITA DERBY-GI, $750,500, Santa Anita, 4-9, 3yo, 1 1/8m, 1:48.67, ft.
1–TAIBA, 124, c, 3, by Gun Runner
  1st Dam: Needmore Flattery (MSW, $732,103), by
                 Flatter
   2nd Dam: Kiosk, by Left Banker
   3rd Dam: Phone Switch, by Phone Trick
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN, 1ST GRADE I WIN. 'TDN RISING STAR'. ($140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR). O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Bruce C Ryan (KY); T-Tim Yakteen; J-Mike E. Smith. $450,000. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $490,200. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus*. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Messier, 124, c, 3, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike. 1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. 'TDN RISING STAR'. ($470,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL). O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable, Siena Farm LLC; B-Sam-Son Farm (ON); T-Tim Yakteen. $150,000.
3–Happy Jack, 124, c, 3, Oxbow–Tapitstry, by Tapit. 1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. ($0 RNA Wlg '19 KEENOV). O/B-Calumet Farm; T-Doug F. O'Neill. $90,000.
Margins: 2 1/4, 10, NK. Odds: 4.30, 1.30, 26.80.
Also Ran: Armagnac, Win the Day, Forbidden Kingdom.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

Pedigree Notes:

Taiba was the second topper at the Fasig Gulfstream sale off a powerful :10 1/5 move, and he cost exactly double that of Gun Runner's next-priciest 2-year-old, fellow future Baffert pupil Flying Drummer. Gun Runner, whose first crop of yearlings cost up to $775,000 and averaged the most among freshmen at $246,413, more than lived up to the auction hype when his runners started to hit the track. He was represented by two Grade I winners last year–including champion 2-year-old filly Echo Zulu–plus two other graded winners while breaking the record for progeny earnings by a freshman.

The Three Chimneys resident has been on a tear in the last round of Derby and GI Kentucky Oaks preps–Echo Zulu resurfaced to annex the GII Fair Grounds Oaks on seasonal debut Mar. 26; then Cyberknife took the GI Arkansas Derby last Saturday on the same day Beguine was second in the GIII Fantasy S. and Running Legacy was third in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. GIII Wither S. winner was beaten a neck Saturday at Aqueduct in the GII Wood Memorial S., two races before Shotgun Hottie was third in the GIII Gazelle S.

Overall, the 2017 Horse of the Year has sired four highest-level winners, seven graded winners and 11 stakes winners.

Flatter, meanwhile, is the broodmare sire of four U.S. graded winners–including last year's GI Darley Alcibiades S. heroine Juju's Map (Liam's Map)–and another MG1SW in South America.

Taiba's dam Needmore Flattery racked up more than $730,000 having never earned better than a 75 Beyer Speed Figure competing mostly in Ohio-bred company. Her first foal is a still-unraced 4-year-old son of Uncle Mo, and she sold to Leopoldo Fernández Pujals's Yeguada Centurion for $195,000 at KEENOV '19 before being exported to France and foaling a filly by Uncle Mo.

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