Crushed at the windows to the tune of 1-5 favoritism on an overcast afternoon, the chestnut broke well enough to save ground on the first bend in fourth. Settling as the leading flight showed the way, he drafted in the two path behind cover along most of the far turn and was rolling from four wide outside of the quarter pole. Rallying to take the lead as rivals to his inside knocked each other around coming into the homeward drive, he extended his advantage to a comfortable 6 3/4 lengths as Moore's Law (Good Magic) motored in from last to take the minor placing. Mount Craig (Arrogate) gamely overcame the interference to round out the trifecta. An inquiry into that stretch trouble would later disqualify fourth place finisher Hero's Medal (Medaglia d'Oro) to sixth.

Dreamlike claims Australian export MSP Backflash (Medaglia d'Oro) as an elder sister. He's the third winner from three to race and has two full-siblings–a 2-year-old colt Dimatic and a yearling filly. Dam Time to Tap, herself a full to champion 3-year-old filly, GI Kentucky Oaks victress Untapable, had a 2023 Silver State colt. Among her other accomplished siblings hails GISW & MGISP Paddy O'Prado (El Prado {Ire}), and the dams of GSW Majestic Eagle (Medaglia d'Oro) and GISP Red Route One (Gun Runner). This is also the family of that one's full-brother GSP Red Run and at least eighteen other Graded or listed black-type runners. Sales history:  $975,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $162,850. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.
O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher.

#3 Dreamlike stays clear of trouble and romps in R2 at Saratoga for trainer Todd Pletcher, owners @RepoleStable and St Elias Stable and jockey @iradortiz!

#TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/QhQNdkl3ZD

— TwinSpires Racing (@TwinSpires) July 14, 2023

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The GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks winner has been firing bullets for trainer Larry Rivelli at Hawthorne since, including a five-furlong move in :59 (1/14) June 8.

Jockey Gerardo Corrales will replace the injured Jareth Loveberry in the irons.

'TDN Rising Star' Bishops Bay (Uncle Mo), drawn one to the inside of the 8-5 morning-line favorite in post three, came within a head of defeating subsequent GI Belmont S. winner Arcangelo (Arrogate) in a thrilling renewal of the GIII Peter Pan S. at Belmont May 13. The bay has been favored in all three of his previous career starts for trainer Brad Cox.

The field of eight also includes 59-1 GII Wood Memorial S. upsetter Lord Miles (Curlin). He was a late scratch from the Kentucky Derby and his trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. was suspended indefinitely by Churchill Downs when two of his horses died from unexplained causes leading up to the first Saturday in May.

Grade I Winners Meet in Chicago…

Grade I winners Matareya (Pioneerof the Nile) and Society (Gun Runner) will throw down in Saturday's GIII Chicago S. going seven furlongs at Ellis Park.

Godolphin homebred Matareya, a debut winner over this track during her 2-year-old season, has a pair of top-level wins on her resume–the 2022 GI Acorn S. at Belmont Park and the GI Derby City Distaff S. most recently on the Kentucky Derby undercard.

Society, a front-running heroine of last term's GI Cotillion S. at Parx, cuts back to one turn following a well-beaten ninth in the GI La Troienne S. May 5.

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A couple of the top races have been won by a significant new investor, Wathnan Racing. Apparently, the people involved were eager to maintain a low profile, but it's tricky to remain incognito when the meeting's most storied trophy is being presented by the new King of England while Frankie Dettori, that least retiring of retiring jockeys, is cavorting in your colors in the foreground.

Though unable to be present himself, the man behind Wathnan was duly revealed as the Emir of Qatar, whose brother and cousin have already been valued investors on the European Turf for some time.

The British breeders who respectively sold the Emir homebreds to win the G1 Gold Cup and G2 Queen's Vase are both indebted to the priceless heritage of British racing, which keeps it far more competitive than its internationally inadequate prizemoney would otherwise allow. Investment from overseas–whether in deals like these, or at public auction–is often the only thing that can keep a British racing and breeding program in the game.

Over the years, of course, the wider debt of horsemen everywhere to Middle Eastern investment has been incalculable. Primarily this has been animated by personal passion, for the horse. With time, however, the Maktoums also began to explore sport's value to the kind of agendas that come under the umbrella of “soft power.”

Two Phil's | Coady Photography

That's an increasingly important element in the other, far more prominent transfer window of the European sporting summer. This week A.C. Milan supporters were shocked by the abrupt defection of young midfielder Sandro Tonali to Newcastle, a British club recently catapulted into the elite by new Saudi ownership. Tonali, a boyhood Milan fan, is a born leader and nobody envisaged him being anything other than club captain a decade from now. That even he should turn out to have his price, then, will have spooked even supporters of rival clubs, who will see that no player can nowadays be considered safe from poaching by wealthier leagues. Indeed, a massive recruitment surge by Saudi Arabia's own domestic league may yet require the English Premier League, accustomed to devouring the best of the rest, eventually to have a taste of its own medicine.

In our own sport, the Big 'Cap once represented the most glittering of prizes. But nowadays its obvious candidates are more likely to head halfway round the world to contest staggering purses in the desert. While racing obviously represents a trifling branch of the soft power tree, the insouciance with which the Saudis could lay on a prize so much bigger than even the G1 Dubai World Cup means that we cannot be surprised by the recent experiences of golf and now soccer.

Yet whatever prompts the injection of cash, whether soft power or hard profit, everyone needs to remember that the lifeblood of all sport is investment of another kind: emotion.     And if passion is treated as a commodity, you will ultimately invite disaffection. Because the one thing that can't be quantified on a balance sheet is the heart of a fan. That's about heritage, identity, formative experience.

This is just as true of racetracks as it is of soccer clubs. Okay, so you might make more money in the short term, for instance, by cashing out one of the most cherished spectator experiences anywhere on the Turf, at Arlington Park. But if we end up with a bunch of soulless gaming facilities, which happen to maintain ancillary ovals in front of deserted concrete sheds, then in a generation or two we won't have a sport at all.

In a world where everything is for sale, then, a horse like Two Phil's (Hard Spun) stands heroically against the tide. He reminds us that sport often depends, for fan engagement, on things money can't buy: pluck and luck.

Reverting to soccer, a lot of American investors (accustomed to sealed franchises) were perplexed when proposals for a European Super League had to be abandoned overnight after the clubs' own fans furiously rejected the removal of jeopardy. They understood, as the club owners didn't, how vital it is that even the biggest clubs, if performing badly enough, should be vulnerable to relegation; and equally that the little guy, showing sufficient merit, can supplant the underachiever.

Lord Miles | Ryan Thompson

Imagine what the Kentucky Derby would be like if restricted to horses that either cost seven figures, or homebred by six-figure covers. As it was, we could root for a blue-collar hero, whose connections had in effect been evicted from their cherished Chicago circuit by the ruthlessness of the same company that hosted the Derby.

Two Phil's was bred from the only Thoroughbred ever bought by the Sagan family (for $40,000) and was ignored by every expert in Book 1. Yet he absorbed a pace that burned off all those around him, before seeing off all bar a single closer.

Unlike Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow), who once changed hands for $17,000 before showing a similarly big heart on the Classic trail a couple of years ago, Two Phil's was not asked to grit out another Triple Crown race. Instead, he resumes his campaign Saturday, eyeing an open sophomore championship, in the GIII Ohio Derby.

It's a hop from Lake Michigan to Lake Erie for many around his ownership crew, who will doubtless have noticed that the GIII Chicago S.–a race, it goes without saying, formerly staged at Arlington–has found its latest sanctuary downriver from Ohio, at Ellis Park, while the Churchill team deal with other issues. Their initial efforts to do so included standing down not just Lord Miles (Curlin), who also resurfaces in the Ohio Derby, but even the champion juvenile.

To that extent, at least, they understand how community engagement is crucial to commercial viability. Because the one transfer window that will never close is the one that allows fans to take their hearts–not to mention their business–elsewhere.

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Parents Pride (Maclean's Music) and Chasing Artie (We Miss Artie), both owned by Ken Ramsey and trained by Joseph, collapsed and died April 29 and May 2, respectively. Parents Pride was pulled up at the five-sixteenths pole during his race before collapsing, while Chasing Artie collapsed after returning to the unsaddling area after his race.

“Twenty days ago, the primary trainer for C2 Racing Stable, Saffie Joseph Jr., was indefinitely suspended by a racetrack operator and since this suspension, we have not been successful in obtaining the necessary answers from several racing jurisdictions or racetrack operators regarding future race nominations and race entries by Saffie Joseph, Jr.,” the statement posted on Twitter reads.

“Due to the lack of answers by jurisdictions and operators, they have made it very difficult to manage the remainder of White Abarrio's four-year-old campaign, thus requiring us to make a trainer change for the remainder of the year. This is definitely not our preference; however, we had two choices, remain with Saffie not knowing if our race nominations or entries would be accepted or make a trainer change so we can nominate White Abarrio to the Metropolitain Mile on June 10, 2023 and future races.

“The decision to make a trainer change is solely based on the ability to manage White Abarrio. We have the utmost confidence and trust in Saffie Joseph, Jr. and his team. We know from first-hand experience and being at the barn on almost a daily basis for the past year that he and his team deeply care for th e welfare and condition of the horses. In fact, we remain fully committed to Saffie and our twelve horses currently under his care will remain as we are very confident Saffie will be reinstated and fully vindicated in the near future.

“White Abarrio will arrive at Belmont Park this morning to his new trainer Richard Dutrow, Jr. to being preparing for the Metropolitan Mile on June 10, 2023.”

White Abarrio won a Gulfstream allowance/optional claiming race in his last start at Gulfstream on March 4, after running eighth in the GI Pegasus World Cup Invitational S., presented by Baccarat. The allowance win was his first since taking the GI Florida Derby in April, 2022.

C2 Racing Stable is owned by Clint and Mark Cornett.

Joseph was suspended indefinitely by Churchill on May 4, two days before the Kentucky Derby, and his entrant, Lord Miles (Curlin) was scratched. “Given the unexplained sudden deaths, we have reasonable concerns about the condition of his horses, and decided to suspend him indefinitely until details are analyzed and understood,” said Bill Mudd, President and Chief Operating Officer of CDI. “The safety of our equine and human athletes and integrity of our sport is our highest priority. We feel these measures are our duty and responsibility.”

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The decision came after Lord Miles worked four furlongs in :49.50 Friday morning at Palm Meadows.

“He had a good work but the Preakness was never really a priority,” Joseph said. “That's where we're at with him. The Belmont comes into play because it would give us more time. We will work him twice more before making any decisions, but I might want to look at other races.”

Lord Miles was set to enter the Derby off an upset win in the GII Wood Memorial at 59-1.

Though the KHRC ordered all of Joseph's horses entered Derby week to be scratched and he was banned indefinitely by Churchill Downs, Joseph said he did not anticipate having any problems running in other jurisdictions. Churchill and the KHRC made their rulings after two horses Joseph trained died of unknown causes in the lead-up to the Derby.

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Skinner had galloped a mile Friday morning during the special 7:45 to 8 a.m. Derby/Oaks training period and all looked well. But then, back at Barn 41, several temperature checks did not come back right, forcing his conditioner to alert track officials that it would not be right for him to run Saturday.

With the defection of Skinner, the Derby field is down to 19 starters. Practical Move (Practical Joke), Lord Miles (Curlin) and Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong) were scratched on Thursday.

The last time four horses were scratched from the Kentucky Derby was 2015 when 22 horses entered the race.

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1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move rides a three-race win streak into Louisville, with each of his two-turn stakes scores punctuated by decisive inside moves. The final times from those victories in the GII Los Alamitos Derby, GII San Felipe S., and GI Santa Anita Derby represent the fastest clockings among all the 1 1/16-mile and 1 1/18-mile races on the “Road to the Derby” qualifying schedule in 2022-23.

Yet this Tim Yakteen-trained son of Practical Joke ($90,000 RNA KEESEP; $230,000 OBSAPR) projects to be an overlay in the Derby betting. The post draw will be a big factor in pegging everyone's pari-mutuel chances, but all things equal, Practical Move is likely to be overshadowed in the wagering by divisional champ Forte (Violence), and possibly even Tapit Trice (Tapit), two high-profile 'TDN Rising Stars' from Todd Pletcher's stable who are ranked at Nos. 2 and 5 on this list.

Beyond his own attributes, history is on Practical Move's side: Santa Anita Derby participants have accounted for 19 Kentucky Derby winners since 1940. In the past decade, the winners of the Santa Anita Derby went on to capture the Kentucky Derby in 2012, 2014 and 2018.

On Friday at Santa Anita, Practical Move worked a :47 half-mile in company (2/31), finishing slightly ahead of stablemate Kangaroo Court (Dads Caps), who is aiming for a start in the GII Pat Day Mile S. on the Derby undercard. Practical Move is scheduled to work once more in California on Friday before shipping to Churchill.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

The chief knocks against reigning champion Forte are primarily “on paper.”

The first is the daunting 38-year trend of only two GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners repeating in the Kentucky Derby. That means 95 % of the time since 1984, the best colt on the first Saturday in November is not the best on the first Saturday in May.

The second is the concerning decline of Forte's Beyer Speed Figures, which peaked at 100 in the Juvenile but slid to 98 in the GII Fountain of Youth S. and dipped again to 95 in the GI Florida Derby.

But Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) stands above his peers when it comes to intangibles that can't be quantified. Lanky, athletic and adaptable, he reliably finds ways to win, which he has done every time except once, and that lone loss is now nine months in the rear-view mirror.

Forte readily and willingly jumps into the bit when cued to quicken by regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr., and he finishes with his ears pricked, signaling he hasn't been fully extended. Among the Derby competitors this year, this son of Violence seems most likely to have a yet-to-be-seen stretch gear he hasn't been called upon to produce.

“Forte is a very straightforward horse to train,” said trainer Todd Pletcher after a 1:02 five-eighths breeze Friday at Churchill (29/33). “He's pushbutton.”

3) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying, a May 11 foal by Justify who is a half-brother to 2019 champion distaffer Midnight Bisou, has major mojo as a colt getting good at just the right time.

His tenacious second, beaten a neck by Tapit Trice in the GI Blue Grass S., was likely not his peak effort. More importantly, his speed-centric running style puts him on or near the lead in the Derby, which is the race's winning profile in eight of the last nine years.

“I expected him to win the Blue Grass,” trainer Brad Cox said Friday after watching Verifying train. “I thought he ran a winning race. He got beat by a very good horse.”

To have full faith in Verifying, you have to buy into the belief that he's truly turned a corner, development-wise, and will be able to put together back-to-back strong races, which has eluded him so far.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP) was an odds-on debut winner sprinting at Saratoga. He then ran second in the GI Champagne S., and trainer Brad Cox subsequently conceded that the colt “wasn't quite ready” for his sixth-place try in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Verifying matured over the winter, won an Oaklawn allowance by open lengths, then threw in a beaten-fave clunker when fourth in the GII Rebel S. He then “put things together in the Blue Grass, and has a lot of tactical speed that should play to his advantage in the Derby,” Cox said.

4) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Hit Show has moved around quite a bit in his career. He's raced at Keeneland, Churchill, Oaklawn and Aqueduct, and in between those two New York trips he was stabled at Fair Grounds. Trainer Brad Cox said last week one thing he's noticed about this 3-for-5 Candy Ride (Arg) homebred for Gary and Mary West is that Hit Show has handled every different experience without drama, and that he is quick to settle into his routine.

That's a nice mindset, especially for a colt who won't turn three until May 9.

Hit Show has won twice over nine furlongs and has upped his Beyer every time he's raced, most recently topping out at 93 when second, beaten a nose, as the middle horse who got pinballed in the three-way stretch scrum of the GII Wood Memorial S.

If you take the view that Hit Show will likely benefit in the long run from having been roughed up and not backing down, he's probably pretty high on your list.

But another way to look at the Wood is that Hit Show was an all-out fave who couldn't put away a maiden and a 59-1 shot.  If that's your takeaway, he's likely not in your top tier.

North of 20-1 on Derby day will probably be the price point to find out which assessment is correct.

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

The commanding stride of Tapit Trice is evocative of pure power, and the sustained, six-furlong move he unleashed when winning the Blue Grass S. left a positive visual impression that no other competitor on this year's Derby trail has matched.

But still, the huge question about his Derby chances centers on how far back this notoriously slow-starting son of Tapit will be, and whether or not he will be afforded a long and clear enough runway to attain his high-torque cruising speed.

This 'TDN Rising Star' likely has enough brute force to propel himself through any tight passage that jockey Luis Saez wants to shoot for. But once Tapit Trice builds up a full head of steam, don't expect him to be able to nimbly stop and restart his momentum through traffic the way a lighter-framed horse might be able to do.

This burly gray ($1.3 million KEESEP) stood out so much off his maiden win Dec. 17 that he made the initial TDN Top 12, ranked fourth.

Back on Jan. 3, I wrote that he demonstrated “raw, Derby-quality talent beneath a still-unpolished surface.”

It's now nearly four months later, and I still regard Tapit Trice highly–while still concerned if his trouble breaking alertly and needing to be scrubbed on for early run is going to cost him amid the chaos of the 20-horse Derby.

6) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

The headline writers are going to go bonkers with the “came back to life” hyperbole if Reincarnate wins the Derby. Although this colt does need some sort of transformational rebirth based on his winless form since January, this long-striding $775,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic colt is not as far-fetched a Derby proposition as he might seem.

Reincarnate has never been out of the money from seven starts, all at a mile or longer. He was most recently third in two Oaklawn stakes, first encountering trip trouble in the Rebel, then coming up punchless with a no-excuse stalking setup in the GI Arkansas Derby.

Maybe the two trips to Hot Springs from California just didn't agree with him. It also didn't help that when Reincarnate was back at home at Santa Anita, training was disrupted all winter long because of heavy rains.

But consider the John Velazquez factor. He's still America's premier big-race jockey when riding horses with the ability to control the pace. He's crossed the finish line first in three of the last six Derbies. All were on frontrunners. One was 12-1 and another was 8-1. What more do  you need to know?

7) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

The 3-for-3 Kingsbarns ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) projects to be a forward factor in the Derby, but it's not crucial that he be leading the pack.

Kingsbarns closed adeptly in his one-turn-mile winning MSW debut at Gulfstream after being covered up at the rail, caught in tight on the turn, then boxed and blocked at the top of the stretch. Tasked with two turns in a Tampa allowance, Kingsbarns conceded an ambitious lead, then reeled in a long-shot speedster to draw away by 7 ¾ easy lengths (85 Beyer).

He then found himself on the front end of a GII Louisiana Derby that projected on paper to have no one else vying for the lead, and this son of Uncle Mo cruised home unchallenged over 1 3/16 miles through somnambulant splits (:24.71, 49.50, 1:14.69, 1:39.13) and a 1:57.33 final time that was the slowest in four years since that stakes got elongated from nine furlongs. His Beyer of 95 compares to same-period Louisiana Derby winning Beyers of 91, 99 and 102.

“I think people gave Kingsbarns a discount because of the time of the Louisiana Derby,” Spendthrift Farm president Eric Gustavson said last week “I don't think you should be penalized by going to the front and putting everyone else to sleep like he did. We're pretty confident coming into the Derby.”

8) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 3rd in the GIII Lexington S. at Keeneland Apr. 15. Ky Derby Points: 46.

You can make a cogent case for Disarm improving in the Derby. Whether that advancement will be good enough to win is a separate question.

As a large-framed son of Gun Runner, he was green while third in his June 19 Churchill debut at 5 ½ furlongs. Then he earned 'TDN Rising Star' status with a blast-off, stretch-out Saratoga score over seven furlongs.

Shelved until a Feb. 19 Oaklawn allowance, this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred closed for second behind a wire-to-wire winner on a day when horses on the lead or just off it won seven of Oaklawn's nine races. And he was second again, with minor trip trouble, in the Mar. 25 Louisiana Derby behind lone-speed Kingsbarns, who wired the field on a day when 10 early-pace horses dominated in 11 Fair Grounds dirt races.

Disarm's appearance in the Apr. 15 GIII Lexington S. was only a points-earning exercise to ensure he qualified for the Derby, so beyond making a competent middle move to secure third, the colt was not asked for strenuous exertion three weeks ahead of his higher goal.

Disarm | Coady

9) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Trainer Brad Cox last week described Angel of Empire's progression from an “all legs” Pennsylvania-bred who began his career in modest races at Horseshoe Indianapolis to a “serious player” at the top level of the game who has filled out physically and gotten sharper mentally.

Angel of Empire ($32,000 RNA KEENOV; $70,000 KEESEP) is 4-for-6 lifetime while honing a keen knack for tracking targets and methodically reeling them in.

He's twice won nine-furlong stakes this season, and he ripped through a closing eighth in :12.12 in the Arkansas Derby, the fastest final furlong out of the nine stakes at 1 1/18 miles in the 2022-23 “Road to the Derby” points series.

This son of Classic Empire's company line from the Arkansas Derby got a boost on Saturday, when sixth-place finisher Red Route One (Gun Runner) came back to win the $200,000 Bath House Row S. over nine furlongs at Oaklawn.

10) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

Meet the intriguing wild card in the 2023 Derby. This $150,000 RNA at KEESEP generates rooting interest because he competes for an owner, trainer and jockey who have never participated in the Derby, and Two Phil's started as his career without much fanfare at non-traditional Derby-path tracks like Colonial Downs and Canterbury Park.

This son of Hard Spun attracted attention with a 5 1/4-length win at 7-1 odds in the GIII Street Sense S. at Churchill back on Oct 30. After running second in the GII Lecomte S. and third in the Risen Star S., trainer Larry Rivelli took a chance at bankrolling qualifying points against easier competition over the Tapeta surface in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway, and Two Phil's responded with a 101-Beyer trouncing.

Trouble is, no one seems to know whether to take that big fig at face value. It was earned over a non-dirt surface, and it clocks in at 13 points higher than the previous best number Two Phil's ever produced.

Even though Animal Kingdom (2011) and Rich Strike (2022) proved that Turfway's premier stakes can be a springboard to a blanket of roses, the remaining Derby starters out of the Ruby (or its differently named predecessors) have been a collective 0-for-20 in Louisville since that stakes was first run over a synthetic surface in 2006.

11) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

Mage still needs to work on his gate-breaking skills, and his relative inexperience of just three races since debuting Jan. 28 isn't ideal. But that sweeping, slingshot move he uncorked on the far turn of the Florida Derby will be remembered as his first true flash of Grade I talent if he can build on that effort and sustain his run deeper into the lane over 10 furlongs.

No one will hold it against Mage that he got outfinished in the Florida Derby by the better-seasoned Forte. If anything, Mage got style points for making a move-within-a-move when he dig in to repulse a mid-stretch bid from the eventual third-place finisher.

Still, the Florida Derby might not end up being a reliable measuring stick this year. Beyond Forte and Mage, the race has yielded no other Kentucky Derby qualifiers ranked within the current Top 20.

This son of Good Magic ($235,000 KEESEP; $290,000 EASMAY) breezed six furlongs in 1:14.78 Saturday at Gulfstream (1/1). Assistant trainer Gustavo Delgado, Jr., said that move will be the colt's final serious work, because at Churchill, “we just want him to get to know the track. We don't expect to do very much there, fitness-wise.”

12) LORD MILES (c, Curlin–Lady Esme, by Majestic Warrior) O/B-Vegso Racing Stable; T-Saffie Joseph, Jr. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-0-1, $451,100. Last Start: 1st GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 105.

Lord Miles (Curlin) paid $120 to win the Wood Memorial, gaining the upper hand (hoof?)  in a rough, three-way stretch fight.

That's the second time in three years a Wood winner has paid boxcars. Remember Bourbonic at 72-1 in 2021? He was 13th in the Derby. But it doesn't seem to matter if the Wood winner is a favorite or a long shot: The last Wood winner to capture the Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, and you have to time-travel back to 1981 to find the next closest, Pleasant Colony.

“He came out of the Wood well. He shipped back and he's held his weight,” trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr., said after a half-mile breeze Friday at Gulfstream in :47.05 (2/33).

Joseph acknowledged that “his race in the Wood isn't going to be good enough to win the Derby. He's going to have to improve again…. The biggest drawback with him has been his inconsistency. Sometimes he comes off the bridle and gives himself too much to do.”

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate:

13) Rocket Can (Into Mischief)

Rocket Can (Into Mischief), who celebrates his third birthday Apr. 28, will race with blinkers for the first time in the Derby, trainer Bill Mott confirmed after the colt breezed five furlongs in 1:01 Sunday (11/41) at Churchill Downs. “The one thing that [his beaten-fave fourth in the Arkansas Derby] told me is he still has more to give in the tank,” Mott said. “I don't think he's quite learned to give it his all. That's what you get this time of year with 3-year-olds, but they can improve quickly. He's got a lot of route pedigree on his bottom side being [out of a mare] by Tapit. We added blinkers in today's work and will for the race. Hopefully, that will help him go past horses when he runs up beside them.” Rocket Can, a $245,000 FTSAUG RNA gray, owns a win and a close second in two main-track starts at Churchill. His Oct. 30 allowance score in the slop there over 1 1/16 miles is notable for being .99 seconds faster than the clocking Two Phil's turned in when winning the same-day GIII Street Sense S.

14) Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits)

Derma Sotogake (Jpn) shares an Apr. 28 birthday with Rocket Can. This ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL son of Mind Your Biscuits wired the G2 UAE Derby, cracking the competition while still in hand before widening his margin to the wire under light encouragement. Kate Hunter, who represents the Japan Racing Association and is a Derby liaison for the two Japan-based entrants this year, told TDN's Katie Petrunyak that “Derma Sotogake was always impressive from the time I saw him in Saudi through Dubai. He is a beautiful horse and he moves really well. He has a fun personality. He's really sweet, but he's also full of fire.” But will he seek the lead in Louisville? “If Derma Sotogake is able to set his own pace and take things the way he wants to with no one challenging him, he might,” Hunter said.

Derma Sotogake | Coady

15) Sun Thunder (Into Mischief)

Sun Thunder, a late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG), still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks. But he's run well enough in four graded stakes preps this season (fourth, second, fifth and fourth) to rack up qualifying points behind heavier hitters like Tapit Trice, Kingsbarns, Angel of Empire, and the currently sidelined but formerly No 1-ranked 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo). He's scheduled for a workout on Wednesday. Brian Hernandez, Jr., will ride in the Derby.

16) Jace's Road (Quality Road)

'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road, who turns three Apr. 25, got an early birthday present Sunday when the defection of Blazing Sevens (Good Magic) nudged him off the also-eligible list and into the Derby. This $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road was most recently third in the Louisiana Derby. He's winless in two tries since Dec. 26, but the only two times he's ever been off the board were both over sloppy surfaces, once at Churchill and again at Oaklawn. Jace's Road generally has enough tactical speed to park himself close to the early pace. But we've yet to see him build off that prime positioning by combining it with a menacing, far-turn kick.

17) Raise Cain (Violence)

You don't see much of 1999 GI Belmont S. winner and 2000 older champion male Lemon Drop Kid in pedigrees these days, but that sturdy dose of female-family stamina underneath the sire Violence should give Raise Cain a reputable foundation for being able to get a distance of ground over dirt. But while that inherited ability is theoretically there, Raise Cain ($180,000 KEESEP; $65,000 RNA OBSOPN) is 0-for-3 around two turns. His best race was the Mar. 4 GIII Gotham S., a one-turn mile run over a muddy, sealed track in which Raise Can won by 7 ½ lengths and earned a 90 Beyer. He was wide and driving to get fifth in the Blue Grass, but realistically was not in the same league as one-two finishers Tapit Trice and Verifying, who finished necks apart while 5 3/4 lengths ahead of everyone else.

18) Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg})

Confidence Game ($25,000 KEESEP) is an efficient-striding colt with seven races of experience (five of them routes). This son of Candy Ride (Arg) earned a 94 Beyer by winning the Rebel S., but has not started since. That was a 11-point jump off his previous career-high Beyer, and he projects to need another significant uptick of seven or eight points to be in the hunt in the Derby. He's won two of four starts over “fast” Churchill dirt, which is a plus.

19) Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong)

The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) is seeking his first win since capturing the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26, but a wide trip might have hampered his chances when fifth in the G3 Saudi Derby. This son of the champion United States sprinter Drefong (¥70,000,000 JRHJUL) was also third, beaten 10 lengths by Derma Sotogake, in the UAE Derby. Japanese racing liaison Kate Hunter described the colt to TDN this week as being “wise beyond his years. He's such a calm 3-year-old that you would think he is five or six. That calmness and collectiveness will really come in handy on Derby day.”

20) Wild On Ice (Tapizar)

This Texas-bred homebred for Frank Sumpter won the GIII Sunland Derby in New Mexico with a 77 Beyer after sitting just behind an unsustainable speed duel. The second- and fifth-place finishers out of that race then tried the Santa Anita Derby but made no impact, finishing eighth and fifth. In two previous $100,000 stakes routes at Sunland, this son of Tapizar was beaten a combined 45 1/2 lengths.

The post TDN Derby Top 20: Cadence Quickens, Plot Thickens appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move has the distinction of being the only Derby contender this year to run two triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures at age three, earning a 100 in each of his last two wins, the GII San Felipe S. and the GI Santa Anita Derby.

Among all the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” qualifying races in 2022-23, this Tim Yakteen trainee also produced the two fastest final clockings at 1 1/16 miles (GII Los Alamitos Futurity and San Felipe), plus the quickest nine-furlong winning time (Santa Anita Derby).

Beyond the question of “how fast,” Practical Move rates highly from a “how he does it” perspective. Regular rider Ramon Vazquez should feel pretty confident he's on a colt who has enough tactical speed to be placed within the first flight and doesn't shy from slicing through tight inside passages. Practical Move's late-race torque is a proven commodity that he's used to his advantage in three consecutive rail-running victories.

Vazquez has had only one previous Derby mount, a trip-troubled 13th in 2015 aboard the 36-1 Mr. Z.

Although Practical Move's sire, Practical Joke, was a three-time Grade I winner in New York, he never won a two-turn race (fifth in the 2017 Derby). Maternal grandsire Afleet Alex, though, ran third in the 2005 Derby, then won both the GI Preakness S. and GI Belmont S.

Practical Move | Benoit

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte sports a daunting 6-for-7 career record and he hasn't had a single training setback at age three, winning the two prep races (GII Fountain of Youth S. and GI Florida Derby) that trainer Todd Pletcher said he would target after this tall, lanky colt won last November's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Peer closely at that past-performance block though, and you can see reasons why some handicappers will be willing to bet against this son of Violence on Derby Day.

Even if you don't believe in speed figures at their face-value level, it's concerning when any horse-let alone a divisional champion-regresses in his overall pattern from age two to three. Forte ran a 100 Beyer in the Juvenile, dipped to a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, then checked in with a 95 in the Florida Derby.

That Fountain of Youth slippage might be forgiven considering Forte prowled around the track like he knew he had the field at his mercy and was geared down in the final stages when his win was evident. The Florida Derby, though, featured robust early splits (it was the only nine-furlong prep this season in which the first three quarters were all clocked in sub-24 seconds). Yet when Forte unleashed his customary late kick, it came during a so-so final quarter in :25.72 and a tepid final eighth in :13.02.

Still, you have to respect that this is an A-level athlete who simply fires on the far turn every time out.

It's also noteworthy that Forte's three most visually appealing races (GI Breeders' Futurity, Juvenile, Fountain of Youth) all came over short-stretch configurations with the finish line at or near the sixteenth pole, a setup that does not traditionally favor horses kicking in from farther back. The Derby distance and Churchill's ample stretch both have the potential to work to Forte's advantage.

Forte | Lauren King

3) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Hit Show, a 3-for-5 Candy Ride (Arg) homebred for Gary and Mary West, has the distinction of going off favored in every one of his races. His three victories were open-length romps, and his only two losses were a second by a nose in the roughly run GII Wood Memorial (after overcoming post 12) and a fourth at age two in his first try against winners (when he bobbled at the break).

Although the two horses ranked above him-Practical Move and Forte-earned their spots based on proven ability, Hit Show is more of a speculative selection based on the assumption that he'll offer significantly overlaid value while being primed to peak on Derby Day.

Hit Show is a May 9 foal. Although exact foaling date records are sketchy prior to 1940, 11 known May foals have won the Derby dating to 1875. The most recent two were Authentic in 2020 (who won a Derby that was run in September) and Country House in 2019 (who crossed the wire second but was elevated to the win because of the disqualification of Maximum Security).

4) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP), like Hit Show, also won't technically turn three until after the Derby (May 11). But he ran a “wise beyond his age” second in the GI Blue Grass S., beaten only a neck after twice clawing back the lead in a heavyweight stretch smackdown with No. 5-ranked 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice (Tapit).

This Justify colt is a half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou. Beyond the Triple Crown-winning cachet atop his pedigree, Verifying's female family includes some overlooked nuggets. Damsire Repent was a hard-charging early favorite for the 2002 Derby before getting derailed from the Triple Crown series by an ankle injury. And Repent's sire, Louis Quatorze, wired the 1996 GI Preakness S.

A decent post draw and a clean break almost certainly puts Verifying in the hunt for the lead in the Derby, an obvious plus considering eight of the past nine Derbies have been won by horses either on the front end or forcing the issue.

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice “takes a little while to get going,” according to jockey Luis Saez. But once he picks up steam, look out. He rolled to victory from off the tailgate in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby, and looked beaten on the far turn of the Blue Grass S. before relentlessly reeling in Verifying to win a length-of-stretch battle.

Tapit Trice closed with gusto through a final furlong in :12.40, the fastest final eighth in the Blue Grass since Keeneland switched back to dirt in the fall of 2014. Even more impressive is that he launched his sustained move six furlongs out, which no other competitor on the Derby trail has come close to doing this season.

This gray son of Tapit ($1.3 million at KEESEP) has come around horses in all four of his victories. But his wide-and-driving tactics, combined with his propensity for dawdling at the break, could work against him in a 20-horse Derby.

Even though the two are built differently, consider a comparison to Essential Quality, another 'Rising Star' gray who was favored in the 2021 Derby and also ridden by Saez.

The juvenile champ went into the Derby undefeated after similarly making big, outside moves. Like Tapit Trice, Essential Quality's final prep was the Blue Grass, and it, too, featured a demanding stretch duel through the previously fastest Blue Grass final eighth in the new-dirt era (:12.53).

In the Derby, Essential Quality got off slowly, then Saez kept him four wide on both turns in an effort to avoid getting jammed inside. The colt rallied, but his fourth-place try lacked the spark of previous tries. The tough last prep didn't help him, and the lost ground definitely hurt him. Essential Quality skipped the GI Preakness. S., then won the GI Belmont S., GII Jim Dandy S. and GI Travers S. in succession.

Regardless of whether you think that sort history will repeat with Tapit Trice, you at least have to factor in those tactical similarities when assessing whether or not banking on a closer who gives himself so much extra work to do is a sound bet in a crowded, chaotic race like the Derby.

Tapit Trice | Coady

6) SKINNER (c, Curlin-Winding Way, by Malibu Moon) O-C R K Stable; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-John Shirreffs. Sales history: $40,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $510,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 6-1-0-3, $216,300. Last start: 3rd GI Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Skinner still needs two defections to make the qualifying cut. But I can see him emerging as a “wiseguy” horse at over 30-1 if he gets in.
To arrive at that conclusion, you have to buy into the benefits of the patient, confidence-building training methodology of John Shirreffs, and basically put a line through Skinner's uninspiring race results at age two.

Instead, focus on his progression at age three, which includes a mile maiden win followed by a pair of thirds over increasing distances behind No. 1-ranked Practical Move, the latter punctuated by a purposeful, three-furlong late kick.

All three efforts generated strong Beyers (95-94-99) that leave room for improvement. There's also the been-there-done that factor, based on John Shirreffs's 50-1 Derby upset with Giacomo in 2005, and jockey Victor Espinoza's three Derby wins with War Emblem (2002), California Chrome (2014) and American Pharoah (2015).

7) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

This 3-for-3 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) projected to control the tempo in the GII Louisiana Derby, and he did just that, leading at every call through very moderate fractions (:24.71, 49.50, 1:14.69, 1:39.13) and light pressure. The effort earned a 95 Beyer, a decent number despite the 1:57.33 clocking for 1 3/16 miles being the slowest in four years since that stakes got elongated from nine furlongs.

Still, the win represents capable advancement through only 10 weeks of racing experience, and the overall trend for the undefeated Kingsbarns shows no regression (74-85-95 Beyers). Beyond what he's shown on paper, this is a no-nonsense colt who goes about his business without drama, and he's already handled shipping to and racing over three very different dirt surfaces (Gulfstream, Tampa, Fair Grounds).

Only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby: Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924.

8) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Reincarnate is a glass half empty/half full proposition. Winless since his Jan. 8 GIII Sham S., his Beyers share a similar in-decline pattern over three races as Forte's (95-90-86), and his no-impact third in the Arkansas Derby doesn't supply much next-race momentum.
Yet this long-striding $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic has never been out of the money from seven starts, all at a mile or longer, and he gives the impression of a contender who should be finishing better than his running lines suggest.

Jockey John Velazquez said three months ago that Reincarnate was “still learning how to run” and tended to wait on other horses once he made the lead. His speed-centric style should give him the advantage of being forwardly placed and potentially ahead of trip trouble in the Derby, but you'd better hold out for a sizable mutuel before banking on that investment.

9) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 3rd in the GIII Lexington S. at Keeneland Apr. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 46.

All that 'TDN Rising Star' Disarm had to do in Saturday's GIII Lexington S. was run third to secure the six qualifying points that would put him into the Derby, and jockey Jose Ortiz made sure the colt did just that. Unless it was obvious this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred was going to blow by the field under his own power, everyone knew going into the race there would be no sense in asking Disarm for too strenuous an effort in the interest of keeping him fresh for May 6.

Disarm broke okay then was briefly squeezed back entering the first turn. The momentum loss wasn't serious, and he took up the chase seventh onto the backstretch, incrementally edging his way toward the top by the time the field hit the far turn.

Disarm responded when asked for a test-drive spurt of energy that propelled him to third at the top of the lane. But Ortiz realized he wasn't going to catch the dueling duo up front (especially with Keeneland's short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles ending at the sixteenth pole), so he wisely kept Disarm to task just enough win the “race within the race,” securing show by three-quarters of a length.

No wins at age three and having never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles aren't ideal. But those circumstances were dictated by Disarm having been out of action between August and February. A bet on him in the Derby is essentially a wager that his Gun Runner (out of a Tapit mare) bloodlines are going to put him over the top at 10 furlongs.

10) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Trainer Brad Cox has secured the services of jockey Flavien Prat to ride Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) in the Derby. Prat, currently tops in the nation with 15 graded stakes wins in 2023, had piloted both Angel of Empire and No. 7-ranked Kingsbarns in their respective final preps.

Prat has ridden in five Derbies and finished in the money four times. In 2019 he rode Country House, who was declared the 65-1 winner via disqualification of Maximum Security. Prat was also third at 40-1 with Battle of Midway in 2017, second with Hot Rod Charlie at 5-1 in 2021, and third with Zandon at 6-1 in 2022.

Angel of Empire is 4-for-6 lifetime and at his best when given front-end targets to track down. Although his GII Risen Star S. win (89 Beyer) could be attributed him benefitting from a pace meltdown, this colt's Oaklawn score (94 Beyer) was noticeably more assertive, with this Pennsylvania-bred decisively overpowering the pacemaker.

Angel of Empire | Coady

11) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

Two Phil's ($150,000 RNA KEESEP), the 101-Beyer winner of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, is 4-for-8 closer/stalker who rates highly in terms of versatility and adaptability.

Off as the 2.8-1 second choice in the Jeff Ruby, Two Phil's broke alertly, rated kindly, then was content to be parked outside while sixth down the backstretch. He gathered momentum four deep through the far turn, then shadowed the favorite as the two jointly accosted the pacemaker at the head of the stretch. Two Phil's deftly shrugged off the fave, then chugged for the wire under his own power, with no one seriously challenging.

But this son of Hard Spun does own a 5 1/4-length win at 7-1 odds over a sloppy, sealed Churchill dirt track in the Oct. 30 GIII Street Sense S., which could mean his connections will be doing a rain dance come Derby week.

Two Phil's | Coady

12) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

Mage, who celebrates a birthday Apr. 18, is still without a committed Derby rider as of this writing. This son of Good Magic popped with an encouraging second in the Florida Derby, launching a big, far-turn bid, repulsing a stern stretch drive from the eventual third-place horse, but still being no match for the vastly more experienced winner Forte.

The conundrum facing Derby bettors centers on whether that 94-Beyer improvement represents the ceiling for Mage or if it is just a sneak preview of a higher phase of his development.

Mage's company lines from his Jan. 28 MSW win at Gulfstream got a boost over the weekend. The runner- up in that race, Bourbon Resolve (Hard Spun) came back to win a MSW route at Keeneland as the favorite.

The fourth-place finisher, Perform (Good Magic), who had already won his subsequent start at 7-10 odds at Tampa back on Mar. 11, won again at Laurel, capturing the Federico Tesio S. by a head at 10-1 odds.

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate:

13) Lord Miles
Lord Miles (Curlin) broke his maiden by 5 ¾ lengths sprinting at Gulfstream. Then he ran third in the one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man S., beaten only three-quarters of a length. Stretched out to two turns to take advantage of his stout, female-family bloodlines (A.P. Indy, Seeking the Gold), Lord Miles then drew the rail in both the GIII Holy Bull S. and the Tampa Bay Derby, encountering trouble at the start on both occasions while sixth and fifth. He was bumped at the break in the Wood Memorial too, but overcame it to force the issue, drop back, then re-rally to charge home to a $120 victory in a roughly ridden, three-way stretch fight.

14) Derma Sotogake (Jpn)
When Derma Sotogake (Jpn) wired the G2 UAE Derby, it marked the first group winner for Mind Your Biscuits, the Grade I and Group 1-winning sprinter from five or six years back whose last stateside triumph was a successful stretch-out to nine furlongs in the 2018 GIII Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs. This ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL yearling orchestrated a comfortable, 5 1?2-length score in that 1 3/16-miles Meydan stakes, leading home a Japan-based 1-2-3-4 finish. Since 2000, 12 winners of the UAE Derby have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby, and the best finish among them was sixth (along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try). But times are changing, as Japanese horses are increasingly stamping themselves as worthy global competitors at racing's top levels. Getting too mired in past results might be a mistake in prognosticating how Derma Sotogake will fare in this year's edition.

15) Rocket Can
After Rocket Can (Into Mischief) ran a lackluster fourth as the beaten fave in the Arkansas Derby, trainer Bill Mott surmised that this $245,000 FTSAUG RNA gray has the ability to do better, but “he's just not quite giving it all” yet. A bullet half-mile over the Churchill strip in :46.60 (1/34) last Thursday might be a step toward bringing about an attitude adjustment, but Rocket Can is generally a sharp work horse anyway, having routinely posted bullets at Payson Park over the winter. He has five route races leading up to the Derby, and he earned style points in most of them as a punch-above-his-weight type of stalker. But the poorest try among them was over nine furlongs at Oaklawn, leading to realistic concerns about whether 10 furlongs will be within his scope. Churchill does seem to be Rocket Can's preferred surface. He broke his maiden there back on Oct. 30 and was second, beaten just a half-length, in a Nov. 26 allowance.

16) Sun Thunder
Trainer Kenny McPeek described Sun Thunder as a Derby “fringe horse” in a Daily Racing Form interview last week, and that label fits. This late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) was fourth, 6 ½ lengths off Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass S. He still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks, but he's run second, fourth (twice), and fifth in graded stakes against decent company through a winter/spring campaign. He is going to need help both pace-wise and trip-wise in the Derby while also having to find at least another 14 or 15 points on the Beyer scale to be in it to win it (he's twice maxxed out at 89).

17) Jace's Road
Prior to last Saturday, Jace's Road barely made the qualifying cutoff. But Disarm's six-points third in the Lexington S. knocked him back onto the also-eligible list. A $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, this colt ran a non-threatening third in the Louisiana Derby, and the best race on his résumé is still the 90-Beyer Dec. 26 wiring of the Gun Runner S. Jace's Road's status as an early 'TDN Rising Star' whose form has taken a hit reminds me a little bit of fellow Brad Cox trainee Mandaloun, who was also a 'Rising Star' and had a subpar final prep in the 2021 Louisiana Derby. Mandaloun reawakened with a 26-1 second in the Kentucky Derby, then subsequently was upgraded to the win because of the still-under-appeal drug DQ of Medina Spirit.

18) Confidence Game
Confidence Game, the 18-1 upsetter of the Rebel S., registered a 94-Beyer win by getting third run at wilting leaders. This $25,000 KEESEP Candy Ride (Arg) colt was initially slated for one more prep, but in March trainer Keith Desormeaux said it took Confidence Game “a little longer than usual to recover.” There was speculation he'd enter this past Saturday's Lexington S., but he instead breezed a mile from the gate on Friday in 1:38.20 (1/1). Now Confidence Game will head to the Derby off a 70-day layoff and never having run beyond 1 1/16 miles. Since 1929 (the advent of complete records), the longest winning layoff for a regularly scheduled Derby in May was 42 days, equaled by Needles (1956) and Animal Kingdom (2011).

19) Continuar (Jpn)
The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) was third and beaten 10 lengths by Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby. In their three common races, Derma Sotogake now has two wins over Continuar (the other was by a nose in a Nov. 6 handicap at Hanshin). Derma Sotogake was also third ahead of Continuar (fifth) in the G3 Saudi Derby. This ¥70,000,000 JRHJUL yearling's most recent victory was in the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26. Stateside fans will recall his sire, Drefong, as the Bob Baffert-trained champion sprinter in 2016.

20) Wild On Ice
Every Derby needs a massive, small-circuit-based longshot as a rooting interest, and Wild On Ice (Tapizar) fits the bill this year. The 35-1 winner of the GIII Sunland Derby in New Mexico has 60-year-old jockey Ken Tohill poised to become the oldest rider ever to compete in the Kentucky Derby. In the Sunland Derby, this Texas-bred homebred for Frank Sumpter stalked two front-running favorites who had shipped in from Santa Anita, and when the invaders dueled themselves into defeat, Wild On Ice opportunistically picked up the pieces for a 77-Beyer, 1 ¼-length score.

Note: Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) was ranked at No. 11 here last week but has now dropped to the 25th spot in qualifying points. Because of his diminished chances at making it into the main body of the race, he got relegated out of the TDN Top 20. Two horses who are currently inside the qualifying cut–Raise Cain (Violence) and Blazing Sevens (Good Magic)–are also not listed in this week's write-up.

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Disregarded at 59-1 following a sixth-place finish in the GIII Holy Bull S. Feb. 4 and a fifth-place finish in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby Mar. 11, the Peter Vegso homebred was hustled early by Paco Lopez and raced in second rounding the clubhouse turn. Ridden along in an outside fourth down the backstretch, Lord Miles began to rally while four wide on the far turn as the New York-bred Arctic Arrogance (Frosted) and the Todd Pletcher-trained maiden Dreamlike (Gun Runner) started to throw down approaching the quarter pole.

Four across the track down the stretch, Arctic Arrogance was the first to blink on the inside. Dreamlike narrowly hit the front as favored Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}), a dominant winner of Aqueduct's GIII Withers S., and Lord Miles continued to rally in tandem. Racing shoulder to shoulder with Hit Show, Lord Miles was going the best of all in deep stretch, and, after the trio played a bit of bumper cars close to home, Lord Miles surged late while widest of all to get there by a nose in a wild, three-horse photo finish. Hit Show was second. It was another head back to Dreamlike in third. Lord Miles earned 100 points on the road to the GI Kentucky Derby.

The result stood following a stewards' inquiry.

“I knew they got in tight,” winning trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. said. “Watching the head on, I thought we were good, but you're dealing with opinion. You never want to be in that position, but I accepted that if something happened at least we would be second. But I didn't think there should be a change.”

Lopez added, “[Dreamlike] came out and [Manny] Franco [aboard Hit Show] was looking for room and so he bumped into my horse. My horse stayed in line all the time and stayed fighting for the line. It was a tight race. He gave me a beautiful run today.”

Lord Miles was a sharp debut winner going six furlongs at Gulfstream Park Nov. 19, then was a rallying third in the Mucho Macho Man S. Jan. 1 prior to his pair of aforementioned graded stakes attempts in the Sunshine State.

“He ran huge [today],” Joseph said. “After his first start, I was dreaming Derby. The Mucho Macho Man was good, but from there everything was derailed. The Holy Bull went wrong, the Tampa Bay Derby was a step in the right direction, but we were probably running out of time. Today, here we are, one more time and it worked out.”

Pedigree Notes:

Lord Miles becomes the 52nd graded winner for leading sire Curlin. The two-time Horse of the Year sired back-to-back winners of this race in 2017 with Irish War Cry and in 2018 with Vino Rosso. Out of the unraced Majestic Warrior Vegso homebred Lady Esme, Lord Miles is bred on the same wildly successful Curlin x A.P. Indy cross as top-level winners Malathaat, Nest, Global Campaign, Stellar Wind, Clairiere, Paris Lights and Idol. Lady Esme, from the immediate female family of champion 2-year-old filly Caledonia Road (Quality Road), is also responsible for the 2-year-old filly Lazar's (Twirling Candy) ($170,000 KEESEP yearling purchase by Solis/Litt) and a yearling filly by Connect. She was bred to Quality Road for 2023. Lord Miles is her first foal.

Saturday, Aqueduct
WOOD MEMORIAL S. PRESENTED BY RESORTS WORLD CASINO-GII, $750,000, Aqueduct, 4-8, 3yo, 1 1/8m, 1:51.17, ft.
1–LORD MILES, 123, c, 3, by Curlin
                1st Dam: Lady Esme, by Majestic Warrior
                2nd Dam: Come a Callin, by Dixie Union
                3rd Dam: Twilight Service, by Horse Chestnut (Saf)
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. O/B-Vegso
Racing Stable (KY); T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.; J-Paco Lopez.
$400,000. Lifetime Record: 5-2-0-1, $451,100. Werk Nick
Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus*
Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the
free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Hit Show, 123, c, 3, Candy Ride (Arg)–Actress, by Tapit.
O/B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY); T-Brad H. Cox.
$140,000.
3–Dreamlike, 123, c, 3, Gun Runner–Time to Tap, by Tapit.
1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($975,000 Ylg '21
KEESEP). O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-Winchell
Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. $75,000.
Margins: NO, HD, 5 1/4. Odds: 59.25, 1.70, 3.30.
Also Ran: Arctic Arrogance, Classic Catch, Slip Mahoney, Shadow Dragon, Knox, Crupi, General Banker, Mr. Swagger, Uncle Jake. Scratched: Clear the Air.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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