Because while few have quite maintained their early book sizes, they have at least now had a fair opportunity to show their hand, with between three and five sophomore crops. We can no longer complain that their stock has been judged prematurely, especially given that they will typically have been given their biggest chance in their opening books. And since most will meanwhile have had their fees trimmed, simply to stay in the game, you could argue that this stage of a stallion's career tends to produce some of the very best value in the marketplace. Indeed, among these three intakes, Maclean's Music alone stands as high as $50,000, and he does so only by dint of doubling his fee for 2022–thanks to 221 mares last spring, followed in the summer by his breakout Grade I exacta.

Bearing in mind that he actually belongs to the most exposed of these three groups, Maclean's Music shows that stallions at this point have useful potential to get you ahead of the game. In surviving the commercial trauma of their stock's racetrack exposure, they have tended to establish a loyal base on which to build again. They have “come out the other side”, so to speak.

Even so, it becomes ever more difficult to agree quite what we mean by “value”. End users will be delighted to obtain inexpensively the services of what may now be considered relatively proven sires; but commercial breeders still need some residual market momentum–resilient yearling averages, maybe, or a filling “pipeline”–if they are to keep the faith.

So here, offered as subjectively as ever, are some that may achieve a happy medium.

Bubbling under: Let's hope Paynter gets due recognition for a Horse of the Year, because he's far from a one-trick pony with 20/38 stakes winners/performers at a clip that stands right up to, say, his more expensive classmate Violence (who does, in fairness, have five Grade I horses against just Knicks Go). One way or another Paynter continues to be commercially neglected, which does mean that he offers especially rare value, on $10,000 at WinStar, for the end-user.

That's exactly what The Factor has already proven himself to be–and he's set for another top 20 finish in the general sires' list, consistently punching way above belt on $17,500 at Lane's End. He's been doing that ever since his return from Japan and, while that year away will leave him treading water briefly (no sophomores in 2022), he will be kept in business by his older stock, not least in view of their trademark, teak soundness. Foals bred now will be well placed to capitalise on renewed momentum, with books of 150 and 135 in the pipeline. The Factor may be hard to keep off the podium among established sires this time next year.

Take Charge Indy has had to regroup from a rather longer exile, having spent three years in Korea before earning an unusual repatriation through the endeavors of stock he had left behind. He requires just a little patience, with his first juveniles since his return on line only for 2023, but meanwhile gets another attractive trim to $12,500 at WinStar and, while he didn't really have an adequate footprint to freshen up his resumé a great deal this year, his overall record leaves no doubt of his competence to convert that sumptuous pedigree into stakes horses. I suspect that those who stick with him now will soon find themselves catching a rising tide.

The only member of Take Charge Indy's class to get black-type horses at a superior rate is Jimmy Creed, who just needs to improve his conversion rate: he has outstanding ratios for stakes, graded stakes and Grade I performers and is surely due a spate of headliners to follow his first elite winner, Casa Creed, one of just three scorers from as many as 17 stakes placers in 2021. Remember that Jimmy Creed, having rallied from 67 mares in 2017 to 165 in 2018, also has numbers on his side–and not least of these is a fee of $10,000 at Spendthrift.

Union Rags | Sarah Andrew

Bronze: UNION RAGS (Dixie Union–Tempo, by Gone West)

$30,000 Lane's End

Has the time come to get back on board the Union Rags express? There's no point pretending that the halving of his fee from $60,000 last spring was purely a COVID concession. He had hoisted himself from an initial $35,000 with no fewer than four Grade I winners from his first two crops, but dropped to ninth in the fourth-crop table in 2019 and slipped to 111 mares in 2020. But his farm's businesslike response was immediately rewarded by a return to full subscription (by their commendably restrained standards, anyway) at 164 mares.

In terms of output, then, Union Rags has plenty to work with, if he can regroup now. And that is exactly what he has begun to do. In 2021, he's back at the top of the class by stakes winners (seven), graded stakes winners (four) and graded stakes performers (11). He's had a number of near-misses in resonant races: Express Train was foiled by half a length in the GI Santa Anita H., Dynamic One missed by a nose in the GII Wood Memorial, and Commandperformance finished second in the GI Champagne S. and fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile on only his second and third starts. The $1-million baby Spielberg is back on the worktab, too.

It feels like the stock of Union Rags taper to a peak that is higher than it is wide. Cumulatively, his percentage of black-type action doesn't quite match classmate Creative Cause, for instance, and he stands at a quarter of the fee. But when Union Rags does connect, he can hit a long way. He has so far assembled as many as 12 Grade I performers among 29 placed at graded stakes level overall, at a ratio that measures right up to his universally admired studmate Twirling Candy.

Union Rags always promised to cover all bases as a fast juvenile (won GII Saratoga Special by seven lengths en route to GI Champagne S. success and a head defeat at the Breeders' Cup) who stretched his speed to win the GI Belmont S. on what sadly proved his final start. Though somewhat shaken by his ups and downs, the market maintains him with ample viability at this kind of fee (last two yearling crops averaged $87,024 and $106,000) and Union Rags, who has now been joined at stud by his imposing son Catalina Cruiser, is certainly a conduit of some venerable genes. His half-sister is the dam of an international force in Declaration of War (War Front) while his third dam is a British Classic winner by a son of Hyperion.

It goes without saying that a lot of the new sires corralling huge books this coming spring will never manage a single Grade I winner, never mind four, and it seems a little unfair to punish Union Rags for doing so well, so quickly, and then not repeating quickly enough. It takes a potent sire to do what he did, and he's the self-same package now–but at half the fee he could charge only a couple of years ago. Definite scope for Rags to riches, once again.

Cairo Prince | Sarah Andrew

Silver: CAIRO PRINCE (Pioneerof the Nile–Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull)

$15,000 Airdrie

There's been an uncanny parity between the standout fourth-crop sires Goldencents (Into Mischief) and Cairo Prince, who from virtually the same number of named foals (454 and 450 respectively) have so far been precisely in step for black-type performers (38 apiece) and graded stakes winners (five each), their fees similarly settling at $15,000.

But while Goldencents was first to a Grade I breakout, it's the Airdrie stallion who has opened up daylight when measured by stakes winners (18 plays 13) and graded stakes horses (13 against eight)–and, critically, he is due for fresh impetus.

Because now is the time Cairo Prince can start to register the upgrade in his mares following his sensational sales debut in 2017, when his first yearlings averaged 15 times conception fee. In 2018, he received the rare accolade of a second fee increase before he had even had a runner, to $25,000 from an opening $10,000.

The first foals resulting from that heightened demand are this year's juveniles and we can already see the dividends. True, some of the most accomplished of his youngsters were bred at Airdrie, such as stakes winner/GI Starlet S. runner-up Cairo Memories; and recent runaway Churchill debut winner Park On the Nile. But already Cairo Prince has sired 29 winners from 57 starters in this crop, including seven black-type performers, putting him behind only Into Mischief himself in the juvenile standings. And the champion stallion has needed 86 starters for his 33 winners!

Something is stirring with Cairo Prince, then–already anticipated at the 2-year-old sales, where his average basically doubled on the previous crop. And his stock should continue to thrive, too: Cairo Prince was all set to build on his early foundations (won GII Nashua S. on second start, romped in GII Holy Bull S.) when derailing in the GI Florida Derby. His dam was a stakes winner at four, after all, and his family has just the kind of copper-bottomed seeding we know to expect at this farm: third and fourth dams, indeed, are by Nearctic and Native Dancer. Closer up, Cairo Prince is a half-brother to the Grade I-placed dam of Grade I winner and promising WinStar sire Outwork (Uncle Mo).

It's pretty rare for the market to “find” a new stallion the way it did this one, being generally inclined slavishly to obey the values implied by covering costs. Yet Cairo Prince, partly as a result of last year's COVID cuts, has come back down in fee even if his “pipeline” has become ever more loaded. As a result, those who breed to him now have a low-stakes opportunity to cash in as this second, better-bred cycle starts to do its stuff. With his lamented sire a premature loss, the Prince looks ready to accede to the throne.

Dialed In winning the 2011 Florida Derby | Coglianese

Gold: DIALED IN (Mineshaft–Miss Doolittle, by Storm Cat)

$15,000 Darby Dan

Now here's a horse whose every step takes him forward, with only his fee standing still. No surprise, certainly, that his second Grade I winner should also be a graduate of his 2017 book, which soared giddily to 231 mares from 105 the previous year.

That surge came after he had topped the freshmen prizemoney table; also top by wins and second (missed by one) by individual winners, despite fielding only 40 starters against 53, 57 and 56 for the next three in the table–and all from an opening fee of just $7,500.

Dialed In's next four books have brought in another 542 mares but his fee, having meanwhile touched $25,000, has been allowed to drift down again. We know that the market always needs encouragement, pending the maturing of a new cycle in a stallion's career; and of course he also participated in the COVID concessions made last year. But the upswing could already be read at the yearling sales this year, where Dialed In catapulted his average from $41,462 in 2020 to $71,000, processing no fewer than 36 of 39 into the ring. That's a really significant vote of confidence in a stallion at this stage of his career.

Those of us who have long nursed high hopes for Dialed In could salute Get Her Number's juvenile Grade I success last year as a sign of things to come and, sure enough, his sophomores in 2021 included not just GI Arkansas Derby winner Super Stock but also Mr. Wireless, who paired the GIII Indiana Derby and GIII West Virginia Derby. Moreover their sire, for all the precocity he injected into his freshmen's title, has also established his ability to maintain the output of his maturing stock: his first headliner Gunnevera, for instance, was still going strong at five.

I do admire the way Dialed In has pulled himself up by his bootstraps. He had been something of a forgotten horse when starting out at a basement fee, having failed to reward perseverance on the track (single disappointing start at four) after dropping out the previous summer for removal of a chip. He had earned favoritism for the first Saturday in May in winning the GI Florida Derby, only to get stuck out the back before finishing strongly; before then doing the same in the GI Preakness.

But he has always had terrific physical charisma–as a $475,000 Saratoga yearling, he was the most expensive of the crop for his stalwart sire–and there's no doubt that this is a true aristocrat. His pedigree has a beautiful shape, with an Eclipse champion as second dam, and he has raised up some pretty humble mares. Get Her Number's dam, for example, had changed hands for $1,300, while Chalon, beaten a head for the GI Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint and a few cents off millionaire status, is out of a $20,000 mare. The dam of Gunnevera, himself a $16,000 yearling who banked over $5.5 million, had been sold for $13,000.

Dialed In already has 22 graded stakes performers, at a pretty respectable ratio, but only now is he starting to reap the rewards he earned in seizing his first opportunities so eagerly. If you want to use a literal speed-Dial, there's now a full signal.

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Here's just one example of how ruthless the market is. I won't name the stallion, because he doesn't deserve the ignominy: I have long thought him exactly the type we should be embracing, amply satisfying the criteria of pedigree, performance and physique. But anyone who can be bothered to do a couple of minutes' research will soon figure it out. All I'll say is that since a brilliant sales debut, amply vindicating his status as one of the most expensive freshmen, he has produced three Grade I winners from three crops: the same as American Pharoah and one more than the acknowledged breakout of their class, Constitution. In 2021, he was down to 29 mares.

Perhaps he can still renew momentum as he merits. In principle, however, his treatment shows how this marketplace can menace a stallion with commercial extinction virtually overnight. Sure, as we've previously acknowledged in this series, it's fair enough to reach some tentative early conclusions about a stallion if he can't make the most of the huge opportunity that breeders, in their dread of exposure on the racetrack itself, will give to new sires. But we should at least allow their first couple of crops time to mature before making any such judgement. As it is, we tend to anoint just one or two immediate achievers in each intake, and dump the rest more or less on the spot. The commercial highwire tapers to a thread very quickly.

And the whole process, of course, becomes self-fulfilling. You might still get lucky, might still come up with a champion from a handful of mares, but this is a numbers game and the odds obviously steepen with the loss of volume. Little wonder so many stallions at this stage tend to disappear into overseas or regional programs.

At the other end of the scale, the chosen few tend to be very few indeed. With one or two marginal exceptions lower down, of this year's leading second-crop sires only Nyquist and Not This Time have managed to move up their opening fees; and among the preceding group, only Constitution, Liam's Map and Daredevil. The latter's history is a cautionary one, of course, the market having exceptionally repented of his banishment abroad.

So how do we identify value? Many stallions we might consider unfairly neglected could only be recommended to end-users, who might like to breed a runner for a cheap fee, as their sales trajectory is pointing to the door. The few who retain commercial credibility, meanwhile, are generally charged at a corresponding rate. Constitution, for instance, has made the grade in utterly convincing fashion, but he's no longer very accessible as a result. With even more than the usual diffidence, then, here are one or two subjective discoveries of residual value across these two groups.

Bubbling under: Okay, so most of us can't even think about paying $55,000 to cover a mare. But value is relative, and those who can afford to play at this level will be grateful for Darley's immediate retraction of Nyquist's fee hike to $75,000 last year (from $40,000). Because even though he had to wait until the other day for his first graded stakes winner since, when Slow Down Andy advertised his Derby credentials in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity, Nyquist has been extremely consistent in producing horses of elite caliber.

While he has so far managed to get no more than 125 of his 197 named foals onto the track, he now has no fewer than 22 stakes performers, 14 placed in graded company and six at Grade I level. He hasn't converted that presence to winners as efficiently as Not This Time–a horse we have esteemed from the start, and likely to do better yet with the improvement in his book quality–but there's no doubt that Nyquist has secured commercial viability, with his third crop of yearlings averaging $158,442; and his 2-year-olds $342,043, third among all sires in 2021.

No young stallion is more obviously equipped to get you a runner–literally–than Upstart, who has put 118 of 149 named foals onto the racetrack already, a dozen of them placed at stakes level. He was multiple Grade I-placed at two, three and four, so expect his stock to keep thriving. And while his third crop of yearlings were processed modestly enough, pinhookers will surely have noticed his fantastic yields at the 2-year-old sales: $113,250 this spring, after clocking $107,791 with his first crop. Stay on board, definitely, at $10,000 with Airdrie.

Firing Line | Crestwood

Bronze: FIRING LINE (Line of David–Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold)
$5,000 Crestwood

Now here's an intriguing animal. You have to go some way down the second-crop table to find him, but that's no less than you would expect of a stallion with just 38 starters to date. But not only have 22 of them won; two members of Firing Line's second crop have placed in significant Grade II races.

The homebred Venti Valentine was runner-up in the Demoiselle S., having won a maiden and then a Listed race on her first two starts, while $25,000 yearling Nakatomi has also won in stakes company since finished third in the Saratoga Special S. Plenty of Firing Line's rivals, launched with industrial books, could do with that kind of footprint–not to mention a $210,000 2-year-old like Oscarette, who recently won her maiden at Churchill.

Firing Line missed a juvenile Grade I by a nose, won the GIII Sunland Park Derby by 14 lengths (track record) and was beaten only by a Triple Crown winner on the first Saturday in May. He derailed in the Preakness, failed to reward perseverance with a single disappointing start at four, and was doubtless further held back by a commercially unfamiliar sire and damsire. But he was actually working with a serious genetic package: out of a Grade I-placed half-sister to the dams of two Grade I-winning milers from a line tracing to matriarchs Kamar and Square Angel.

Firing Line is in exemplary hands, but has obviously only mustered very small books so far. Breeders of sufficient imagination and adventure will surely want to explore the way he has seized such limited opportunities at this budget fee.

Silver: TONALIST (Tapit–Settling Mist, by Pleasant Colony)
$10,000 Lane's End 

It has been uphill nearly all the way for this fellow, whose fee has come down yet again, but I have admired him throughout and he has had another solid year, maintaining black-type action at essentially the same ratio as Liam's Map. Few would dispute that his lauded studmate has earned his fee, which is four times higher, not least with his useful habit of hitting the bull's-eye with his best runners. It was typical of the understated style of Tonalist, in contrast, that after Country Grammer gave him a deserved Grade I breakthrough in the Hollywood Gold Cup, he promptly disappeared and has only just returned to the worktab.

Tonalist's 11 graded stakes performers through three crops represent 4.33% of named foals, almost exactly in step with Liam's Map (a dozen at a 4.17%). There are plenty of others in this intake, charging far more than Tonalist, who can't even nudge two percent.

Tonalist's books have been up and down but he does have one of 122 to keep him in the game with his 2022 yearlings, and their breeders can take heart from a median of $35,000 for the preceding crop. That's not at all bad for a sire standing at this kind of money, at this challenging stage of his career. But no bones about it, the real appeal of Tonalist is that he is shaping up as a sire who can outpunch his fee on the racetrack. Remember he reached his own peak at four and he has still only had one crop reach that stage of maturity, including his first Grade I winner.

Tonalist has always looked a quarry of old-school virtue, extending the same Toll Booth-Missy Baba line as Havre de Grace (Saint Liam) and author of 11 triple-digit Beyers in a $3.6-million career. Here was a horse that never stopped trying and breeders wanting to tap into Tapit, at an affordable fee, should take a similar approach.

Gold: KARAKONTIE (Jpn) (Bernstein–Sun Is Up (Jpn), by Sunday Silence)
$10,000 Gainesway

Have Antony Beck and his Gainesway team pulled off what has lately come to seem nearly impossible, and found a viable niche for a young turf stallion in Kentucky?

Karakontie has only been credited with 143 named foals to date but he has mustered seven black-type winners, four in graded stakes including Princess Grace, winner of two Grade IIs, two Grade IIIs and last month placed in her debut at the elite level. With his cosmopolitan pedigree, moreover, Karakontie has pushed the boundaries in terms of racing surface, too. Another Grade II winner, None Above the Law, has scored on turf, dirt and synthetics, while Sole Volante put himself on the Derby trail in the Florida preps last year.

Their sire has meanwhile maintained a useful sale ring capacity to hit one out of the park. He sold a $310,000 colt at Keeneland September, to follow on from yearlings that raised $500,000 and $220,000 at the same auction the previous year. And he has also consolidated quietly after suffering the customary slide from a three-figure debut book to just 43 mares in his third season. He has since covered 69, 88 and 76 mares, which may not look spectacular but suggests that people noticed his early achievements–like two first-crop yearlings, $6,000 apiece, making the gate for the G1 2,000 Guineas and GI Kentucky Derby–and gives him a legitimate foothold in a notoriously hostile environment even to the most eligible of turf stallions.

And that is just what he is, remember, having made his own stellar contributions to one of the most illustrious families in the breed today–his third dam is Miesque herself, so this is the Kingmambo clan–as a Group 1 winner at two and elite miling sophomore (French Classic/Breeders' Cup winner, 110 Beyer). This is a conduit of pure class, every way you cut it, and he has shown that he will take such chances as he's given.

Having this year started just nine juveniles (four winners so far, one stakes-placed) from that small third book, he has now got over the biggest bump in his road. And I'd be interested in odds about him siring a Grade I winner before the foals he breeds this coming spring go under the hammer. Overall this is a horse that really does offer hope that he can overcome the self-destructive prejudices of commercial breeding in Kentucky.

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That was fair enough. Nowadays farm accountants can bank only on the most fleeting of vogues in drawing up a business plan for stallion acquisitions. And nor can we sensibly expect any slack now, pending the arrival of first foals and then a debut at the weanling sales next fall. A stallion has to be in pretty obvious trouble to have his fee significantly trimmed for his second season, as a candid devaluation will be received as a blatant kick by those who were prepared to assist in getting him going.

In principle, then, not a great deal can have changed since we first sieved this group last winter. Certainly I can't imagine anyone pays the remotest attention to “covering sire” averages, which are so transparently incidental to the inherent value of such mares as randomly happen to be offered. The one new ingredient in play, then, tends to be the size of debut books.

For the vast majority, in numerical terms, the only way from here is down. As such, the covering stats do not augur terribly well for some of those we thought best value. And maddeningly, because these cycles are so self-fulfilling, it's hard to turn things round if you do struggle for early traction. A disappointing first book places a tough burden on its graduates to get you over the hump of the intervening couple of crops, which will tend to be smaller yet. So our faith in one or two, while undiminished, may not obviously yield “value” in the shorter term. If fairly priced now, at least measured by your odds of getting a runner, they are probably going to become better value yet during the next year or two.

At the other end of the spectrum, though the most expensive of the intake, Horse of the Year Authentic covered as many as 229 mares–only one fewer than the busiest stallion in the land, Goldencents. (Both, of course, are sons of Into Mischief standing alongside their champion sire at Spendthrift.) A number of other start-ups also welcomed enormous books: Vekoma 222, McKinzie 214, Instagrand 190, Thousand Words 184, Volatile 181, and Global Campaign and Improbable 177 apiece. One way or another, then, some highly eligible prospects are going to have their work cut out to match the kind of freshman headlines some of these rivals are bound to seize through sheer weight of numbers.

So between these high-water marks, and those struggling near the storm drain, where can we still seek a rising tide? Here are one or two thoughts–as subjective as ever, and with due apology to the many promising types overlooked in our more concise new format.

Bubbling under: Hard to know whether a commercial market so childishly nervous of grass influences will do adequate justice to a great opportunity in War of Will (War Front). But it's hugely encouraging that this Grade I winner on both dirt and turf, by a son of one breed-shaper out of the daughter of another, was overrun with 143 partners at $25,000: by the laudably conservative standards of his farm, an outright stampede. War of Will merits close consideration by European breeders, too, with every right to become a valuable international influence.

Vekoma (Candy Ride {Arg}) has been given a trademark Spendthrift launch with a monster book at $20,000. All farms that operate this kind of system obviously offer yearling sellers a double-edged sword, but Vekoma, from the family of Street Sense and Danehill Dancer (Ire) among others, represents a promising sire of sires and can certainly recycle a ton of speed and class. Of those who corralled such big numbers, this guy looks value to make them count–even before a friendly trim to $17,500.

One of the most controversial races in Derby history, in contrast, is struggling for commercial credibility. But you can't have it both ways: if some people have decided to punish the hapless Maximum Security (who gets a fee cut) for allegations against his trainer, then at least they should give Country House (Lookin At Lucky) due respect. As it is, he was unlucky to be denied the opportunity of authenticating his breakthrough; and nor did he then get quite the numbers he deserved when sent to Darby Dan at just $7,500. Someday, perhaps, he will finally get some overdue credit by proxy, and sire a colt to pass the Derby post first. Inbred to the Sam-Son matriarch No Class, that's something he is absolutely entitled to do and, like his sire, he remains excellent value for those of sufficiently independent outlook.

Global Campaign | Sarah Andrew

Bronze: GLOBAL CAMPAIGN (Curlin–Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
$12,500 WinStar

I suspect that this guy is going to prove a brisker influence in his new career than might be anticipated. Yes, he was unraced at two (albeit only by a matter of days, scoring on debut Jan. 5); and nor did he try Grade I company until his last two starts at four, when winning the Woodward and outrunning his odds for third in the Breeders' Cup Classic. But if people won't be expecting too much, too soon, from a son of Curlin whose first two dams are by A.P. Indy and Lord At War (Arg)–both, incidentally, stellar distaff influences–this is a family that can inject surprising doses of speed.

That second dam, herself a three-time graded stakes winner, is a half-sister to the dam of Zensational (Unbridled's Song), whose three Grade I sprints qualify him as the fastest son of his sire. The next dam was a half-sister to the dams of one sprinter that broke the five-furlong track record at Churchill, and of another that did the same over six furlongs (turf) at Woodbine. And of course Global Campaign's half-brother Bolt d'Oro was hardly a standard issue Medaglia d'Oro (not that there's any such thing, really) in featuring a 103 Beyer in his champion juvenile campaign. Sure enough, Global Campaign outpaced a smart sprinter in Yorkton (Speightstown) over seven furlongs at Gulfstream on his 4-year-old comeback, and I have a hunch that he didn't quite last home at the Breeders' Cup. Having controlled the tempo when winning over nine furlongs, I wonder how he might have fared given more of a chance at a mile.

Regardless, a debut book of 177 is a major leg-up, and due reward for realistic pricing. I'm not saying that Global Campaign will necessarily have loads of precocious juveniles, but expect him to achieve a viable base and then to consolidate. Factor in his fee, and he rather sets himself apart from those with even bigger books: most are more expensive, and others don't obviously match his eligibility to sire the type of horses we should all be looking for.

Honor A. P. | Amy Lanigan

Silver: HONOR A. P. (Honor Code–Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
$15,000 Lane's End

Still fantastic value, still a whole lot of racehorse for this money. And I cling stubbornly to the belief that he was as talented as any of his generation, beating the Horse of the Year on merit the only time they met properly toe-to-toe (undercooked for their first encounter; undone by a shocking trip in their third).

The only reason he doesn't retain the top step is that a book of 110, which should be ample in a sane world, may contain some that emulate their sire in only really announcing themselves round a second turn, and maybe with a little maturity too (bearing in mind that imposing physique). The book of 190 assembled by the precocious Instagrand, for instance, is presumably more likely to produce maiden winners at Keeneland's spring meet. It's possible, then, that the notoriously myopic commercial market might not grant Honor A. P. due attention until the playing field starts to level out.

Once through that crossroads, however, those who do hang in there will definitely have the last laugh. And remember that a horse this beautiful, in the meantime, almost guarantees a home run or two at the sales. Honor A. P. must have been close to the most prodigious physical of the crop, as measured by his $850,000 yearling tag; while his dam won Grade Is at two and five, a comfort in view of the way his own light career restricted wider appreciation of his talent. She has also contributed three other black-type operators to a branch of the Myrtlewood dynasty (Global Campaign, incidentally, represents another) that has been seeded pretty seamlessly by venerable Classic influences.

Honor A. P. absolutely merits fidelity, and will someday make this fee look like a gift.

Complexity | Sarah Andrew

Gold: COMPLEXITY (Maclean's Music–Goldfield, by Yes It's True)
$12,500 Airdrie

How does Complexity elbow his way right through to the top of the podium? Not too complex, really. For one thing, his farewell performance in the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile has obtained a fresh luster: trying to lie up with Knicks Go (Paynter) from a wide draw, through opening splits of 22.15 and 22.39 (producing a faster six furlongs than in the Sprint on the same card), has turned out to be a still tougher ask than it seemed at the time–especially round a second turn, which was probably not Complexity's true metier. This time last year, moreover, Maclean's Music was still available at $25,000. A breakout Grade I exacta this summer has doubled his fee, requiring smaller breeders to ponder his potential as a sire of sires instead. Above all, however, Complexity received no fewer than 158 mares in his debut book: as close to oversubscription as this model farm will allow.

That puts him right in the center of the conversation for the freshmen's championship. Remember he made all for his emphatic GI Champagne S. success, as indeed he had when thrashing future Grade II and stakes winners on debut in Saratoga. Complexity regrouped after a troubled sophomore campaign to be just nailed in the GI Forego S., after again sharing a wild tempo out wide, and all you need to know about his build is that Mike Ryan gave $375,000 to make him the most expensive yearling in his sire's third crop.

You can anticipate voracious pinhooking interest in his yearlings and, while the left-field sires of his first three dams get credit primarily for variegation, they do represent august lines (Bold Ruler, Bold Ruler, Never Bend). As with American Pharoah, for instance, the important thing is that the genetic cocktail is plainly functioning potently. And don't forget that Complexity's dam has also produced a GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up, and she's out of an 11-time winner who ran second at Grade II level.

This horse couldn't be in better hands and, having gained a good deal while others have more or less had to stand and wait, everything is in place to elevate the value of any investments made in him now.

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In the last couple of instalments, we've observed the Kentucky talent pool in each intake rapidly drying up, so that our review of third- and fourth-crop options respectively encompassed 18 and just six stallions. And we are left with a similar rump among those about to launch a fifth crop of juveniles, with only seven still advertising a fee in Kentucky.

No need, by this stage, to reprise yet again the familiar traps of the commercial model. Suffice to turn back the clock to 2016, not so long ago, when Orb (Malibu Moon–Lady Liberty, by Unbridled)–a Kentucky Derby winner from the family of Ruffian, standing for $25,000 on an exemplary, historic farm; one sagely resistant to the inundation of the market by more industrial rivals–dominated this group with a $148,318 average for his first yearlings. Unusually, moreover, he actually managed to elevate his second crop to a still higher yield at $184,006, when selling no fewer than 66 of 77 into the ring. The world was at his feet. In 2021 Orb is still clinging on at Claiborne, but listed as “private” after receiving a grand total of seven mares last spring.

Nobody's fault, and there are parallels on every farm. Conceivably Orb could yet pull a champion out of his hat. But such is the terrifying commercial vortex that consumes a young stallion who does not make an adequately purposeful start.

Nor, on the other hand, does even the briskest of beginnings guarantee lasting momentum. The champion freshman of this group was Overanalyze, whose 2018 book at WinStar promptly soared to 195. The following season, however, he had plummeted to 43 mares and last spring he was exported to Korea. Shanghai Bobby was on his way to Japan within the year of finishing third in the freshmen championship–despite having meanwhile produced a Royal Ascot winner from his second crop, which also turned out to include elite sprinter Shancelot. A year later Japan would also summon Animal Kingdom, who had finished fourth in the freshman table.

Yet this is also the intake that includes New Year's Day. Having been reduced to a couple of dozen mares at $5,000 in 2018, he was sold to Brazil four months before an upgraded claiming horse named Maximum Security gave him a first graded stakes success. The rest is history, and New Year's Day has since been given a fresh start in Japan.

What a chaotic environment, then, shaped more by luck than judgement, has been heroically negotiated by the handful in this class who have established a viable niche in the Kentucky market.

Violence | Sarah Andrew

As it happens, far and away their most consistent achiever has been a horse who was worn down in the GII Fountain of Youth S., which turned out to be his final start, by none other than Orb. Their fortunes have diverged in their new careers, with Violence (Medaglia d'Oro–Violent Beauty, by Gone West) at Hill 'n' Dale dominating on cumulative results by virtually all indices. He only missed Overanalyze by cents as a freshman, and has since maintained output for 21 black-type winners.

True, he had a quieter year in 2019, prompting an immediate reversal–back to $25,000 from $40,000–of the fee hike he had earned with his across-the-board second-crop championship, on the back of which he had sold his yearlings (conceived at $15,000) for a knockout average of $133,600. But his 2020 campaign has the look of a turning point, crowned not just by a first domestic Grade I winner but by three of them, from consecutive crops: Volatile in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt H., No Parole in the Woody Stephens, and Dr. Schivel in the Del Mar Futurity. Behind Speightstown's four elite scorers, only Into Mischief, More Than Ready and War Front shared this distinction in 2020.

The focus on speed in his elite trio is an interesting development. Violence's own sire, though by an avowed turf influence in El Prado (Ire), operated on dirt and has divided his impact, at stud, not only between surfaces but also between disciplines. And an aristocratic maternal family features a series of crossover influences: second dam by Storm Cat out of Hall of Famer Sky Beauty (Blushing Groom); third a half-sister to the flying Dayjur (Danzig); fourth by Nijinsky out of champion sprinter Gold Beauty (Mr. Prospector).

There will be no break in the traffic for Violence, whose sales performance reflects something of his own exceptional physique. The group of juveniles he is about to launch, indeed, graduate from a book of 214 mares and he only lost momentum after that quiet 2019, with 86 mares last year. You can bet that numbers will be back up now. After sliding to a yearling average of $44,649 with his 2019 blip, this time round Violence rallied to $72,128 for 66 yearlings sold of 88 offered–an especially good performance, of course, in the teeth of the pandemic economy.

I love that Violence's first two dams are both by sires, in Gone West and Storm Cat, out of daughters of Secretariat–whose half-brother Sir Gaylord is responsible for the damsire of El Prado. One way or another, Violence now has all bases covered and can keep consolidating.

Paynter | WinStar

If Violence has always seemed regal, his nearest pursuer in this group has seemed more like the plucky fellow fighting to earn his stripes. Doubtless that partly reflects the grave health challenges overcome by Paynter (Awesome Again–Tizso, by Cee's Tizzy) before he could resume at a high level as an older horse. But we should remind ourselves that he actually started out at WinStar off a higher fee ($25,000) than Violence.

For 2021, he has taken his fourth fee cut to just $7,500–pretty astonishing, really, when he had just been saluted as sire of the fastest miler in Keeneland's history. Now, of course, Knicks Go has followed up his GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile track record in the GI Pegasus World Cup, reiterating his ability to kick again from the front. But this dazzling renewal for the Brad Cox barn is actually the second time that Maryland-bred Knicks Go, whose family is seeded by some pretty exotic names, has demanded a fresh look at his sire.

With three-figure books across his first four seasons, Paynter had been given a solid base and his first yearlings were well supported. They made a fairly quiet start on the track the following year, however, reducing his next book to just 34 mares at half his opening fee. Neither Paynter himself nor his sire had raced at two, so it's hard to know quite what breeders were expecting. But then Knicks Go emerged from his second crop, first as shock winner of the GI Breeders' Futurity and then beating all bar Game Winner (Candy Ride {Arg}) in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. That revived momentum for Paynter, who received 97 and 71 mares in the two years since, and the second coming of Knicks Go will surely repeat the dose at such a low fee.

Because actually Paynter has a solid spread of talent behind his flagship. Knicks Go, remember, sat out most of 2020 and his $608,440 earnings represented only 10 cents in every dollar banked by Paynter in overhauling even Violence, with his three Grade I winners, to top the fourth-crop sires table. Though we've seen that only a handful of elite stallions could match the icing on Violence's cake, their performance otherwise was very similar: Paynter had 222 starters, Violence 225; he had nine black-type winners, against eight for Violence; 18 black-type performers played 15; each had three graded stakes winners and six graded stakes horses; and they respectively notched 115 and 116 winners overall.

The gap between them, of course, remains the one that divides Knicks Go from the rest of Paynter's best stock. Graded stakes winner Harpers First Ride is doing his best, ten-for-18 overall after finishing tailed off in the Pegasus, but Paynter doesn't want Knicks Go to seem so freakish as to become as much of a burden as a benefit. That's why we should respect the breadth of his output, putting him in some pretty august company in the general sires list (among the top 20 active stallions last year).

Paynter's fee cut looks a sensible response to his virtual disappearance as a commercial force with his latest yearlings, processing a handful for a four-figure average. But he can turn that round, too, as people absorb the supporting cast behind his headline act. Either way he certainly looks attractively priced for anyone who might want to breed a runner. And remember his deeds all have an obvious genetic base: he's out of a full-sister to his farm's pensioned legend Tiznow.

Take Charge Indy | Louise Reinagel

This group contains one stallion who has actually managed to reverse the usual tide, Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy–Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) having last year returned to WinStar after a three-year stint in Korea. He had been exported after a tepid reception for his first yearlings in 2016, leggy and immature as they often were, an average of $40,422 representing a limited yield for a rookie who had started out at $20,000.

The three crops he left behind, however, turned out to include the likes of GII Rebel S. winner Long Range Toddy, GII Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy and GI Preakness S. runner-up Everfast. In 2018, Take Charge Indy finished runner-up in the second-crop table; and the following year he edged out Paynter to top the third-crop championship with five black-type winners. He only mustered one of those last year, but obviously had no juvenile input in play.

He was welcomed back by 144 mares last spring, at $17,500, and a mild trim to $15,000 suggests confidence that breeders will be following through on a pedigree that unites a breed-shaping stallion with a top-class runner who has since become a Broodmare of the Year (also responsible, of course, for Three Chimneys sire Will Take Charge). As with Violence, we get a double dose of Secretariat's daughters through Weekend Surprise, the dam of A.P. Indy, and Sister Dot, who gave us Take Charge Lady's sire Dehere. Indeed, the whole page is saturated with Classic influences and, if his GI Florida Derby success could not disguise the reality that he raced one peg below the very best, then Take Charge Indy could well become one of those whose genes make him eligible to produce runners still better than himself.

That remains to be seen. Strictly, Take Charge Indy still needs his big horse–but the bottom line is that his black-type winners and performers have come at a clip slightly better than both Violence and Paynter. Obviously he has a problem in that there will be few if any headlines coming off the track for a couple years now, so he may need the market to invest his relaunch with something of the glamour generally reserved for total newcomers. But he should be treated with more respect than those, having already demonstrated his competence in the role. And the Classic complexion of his overall pedigree should especially appeal to anyone prepared to retain a filly.

Oxbow | ThoroStride

Another nugget of old-fashioned virtue, and who happens to be even more closely related to a rival in this intake, is Oxbow (Awesome Again–Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) at Calumet. He is by the same sire as Paynter and his dam, like Paynter, is another sister to the great Tiznow. Both horses, moreover, finished second in the GI Belmont S. But Oxbow did so after winning the GI Preakness and running sixth in the Derby, and earlier won the GIII Lecomte S. by 11 1/2 lengths. Unfortunately he derailed in his next start, but he had left no doubt as to his throwback, speed-carrying capacities and you'd be confident that his stock will mature effectively.

That's important, because his sophomores this year represent a book of 187–and they include none other than Hot Rod Charlie, 94-1 runner-up in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. So these might just keep him in the game after he was reduced to a very small book last year, duly trimmed to $7,500 (opened at $20,000). His percentages are unexciting and he appears to have rather shot his bolt as a commercial sire, but that won't stop him producing another Coach Rocks (GII Gulfstream Oaks) or two.

Jimmy Creed | Spendthrift

Jimmy Creed (Distorted Humor–Hookedonthefeelin, by Citidancer) represents a very different firm, in Spendthrift. But actually he has so far had nothing like the kind of industrial output sometimes associated with that farm, while having quietly established himself as a most consistent operator at $10,000, temptingly down from $15,000. In fact, his lifetime ratio of black-type winners and performers to named foals (5.2% and 11.5% respectively) is ahead of all these, even Violence (4.5% and 8.7%).

That makes him a really interesting proposition, as a lively start with his first juveniles (20 winners from 44 starters) turned round his book from 67 in 2017 to 165 in 2018. That gives him a big team of juveniles for the year ahead, including yearlings that sold for as much as $500,000 and an average $46,125, while he had another 253 covers across the next two years to keep the pipeline full. In other words, foals conceived now can hope to ride renewed headlines on the track, where he has already produced four graded stakes winners/four Grade I horses. It's all perfectly feasible of a GI Malibu winner whose dam and half-sister Pussycat Doll (Real Quiet) both won the GI La Brea S.

Alternation | Asuncion Pineyrua

Another by the same sire, Alternation (Distorted Humor–Alternate, by Seattle Slew) resembles Paynter with Knicks Go in needing to show that it is not all about GI Kentucky Oaks winner Serengeti Empress. Yes, he only has one other graded stakes winner to this point, but eight black-type scorers overall is a respectable percentage of only 199 named foals.

By this stage he's not really pretending to be a commercial sire but the 40 mares he entertained at Pin Oak last year were sent in the knowledge that his half-brother Higher Power (Medaglia d'Oro) has now earned a place at Darby Dan as a runaway winner of the GI Pacific Classic. Their dam is a half-sister to Canadian Horse of the Year Peaks and Valleys (Mt. Livermore) and it's a regal family all round. He has done it once and, given the chance, there's no reason why he shouldn't do it again.

The only other stallion apparently advertising a fee in Kentucky from this group is Raison d'Etat (A.P. Indy–Sightseek, by Distant View) at Calumet, off the bargain peg of $2,500. He is trading primarily on his genes, rather than the limited use he made of them on the track, but has vindicated the theory to a modest degree with a couple of stakes winners so far.

Bottom line is that some of these survivors may have a lean and hungry look, but they're a deserving bunch overall and much better value than almost all the unproven stallions who dominate the market. Here's hoping they consolidate and can earn a place, next time round, in our concluding look at Established Sires.

CHRIS McGRATH'S VALUE PODIUM: Fourth- & Fifth-Crop Sires
Gold: Paynter ($7,500, WinStar)
   Good base behind his headline act, yet cost shrinking
Silver: Cairo Prince ($15,000, Airdrie)
   Star of his class now a tempting fee
Bronze: Jimmy Creed ($10,000, Spendthrift)
   Pipeline is loaded.

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We noted in the previous instalment that a third crop of juveniles, alongside a first crop of 4-year-olds, typically represents a final chance. Sure enough, compared with 18 Bluegrass stallions approaching that crossroads, we find just six left to review today from the preceding intake.

But whatever sympathy we feel for those meanwhile driven into regional or overseas programs, the nature of the business today means that they have actually delivered as legible and legitimate a sample of their work as we are ever going to get. So many stallions nowadays cover 500 mares across their first three seasons, only to find themselves reduced to a dozen or two within a couple of years. If anything, then, their embarrassment now should prompt us to revisit the vogue they enjoyed when first going to market–and perhaps the contrast might even make us hesitate before rushing to the next lot of rookies off the carousel.

In this group, however, there are a couple who have done something beyond almost all young stallions and created a sustainable niche in the market. Having made a brisk start with his first juveniles in 2018, in fact, GOLDENCENTS (Into Mischief–Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) entertained no fewer than 239 mares at Spendthrift the following spring and another 204 last year–taking him to an aggregate 1,133 through his first six years.

And he will presumably maintain the traffic, his farm having taken such a purposeful lead on fee cuts in the pandemic marketplace: for 2021 he's back down to his original fee of $15,000, from $25,000 last year.

Goldencents topped the third-crop championship in 2020 by nearly all indices, having previously been champion freshman by winners (second to studmate Cross Traffic by prize money) and then headed the second-crop table. Given his fairly industrial output, however, he is nothing like so dominant in percentage terms. It would be pushing things, certainly, to describe nine black-type winners and three graded stakes winners from 255 starters as a wildly exciting yield.

By My Standards has been a standard-bearer for Goldencents | Coady

But then Goldencents, having been one of the first to demonstrate his sire's capacity to upgrade mares, has also been in the vanguard in terms of testing whether that prowess will be recycled by his sons. He was just a $5,500 yearling, remember, out of a $7,000 mare by a stallion who ended up in Cyprus. The family did bring hardiness (next two dams respectively 18-for-45 and 13-for-46), but somehow Into Mischief ignited a spark of quality in Goldencents that burned up consecutive editions of the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. And while his sire was still available at $35,000 when Goldencents joined him at Spendthrift, his relative affordability has obviously been at a growing premium ever since.

Goldencents was blessed that his own first crop produced a couple who did much the same service, in promoting their sire, as he had himself performed for Into Mischief. In fact, By My Standards and Mr. Money remain far and away his biggest earners to date. And while neither has quite broken the Grade I ice, By My Standards certainly neared the top of the handicap division in his third season and has helped to keep his sire's names in lights all the way through.

Arguably it's about time Goldencents produced a new star, but that's precisely what he can hope to do after getting that reboot from his prolific first crop. In the meantime, admittedly, he has been treading water somewhat at the sales: while one daughter did bring $300,000, he averaged a steady $29,069 with his 2020 yearlings, for 52 sold of 68 offered.

That yield, and all the rest cited here, must of course be placed in the context of an exceptionally challenging market. Be that as it may, we will pretty soon have to cease doing what we're doing today–comparing these survivors against other stallions at the same stage of their career–and instead start measuring them against all those established operators who, having shed the commercial allure of novelty, have already chiselled a lasting foothold in the market.

Cairo Prince | Sarah Andrew

Sticking to this group, however, you couldn't ask for a more instructive foil to Goldencents than CAIRO PRINCE (Pioneerof the Nile–Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull). They have reached this point absolutely in tandem: Goldencents has 384 named foals, Cairo Prince 380; Goldencents has had 256 starters, Cairo Prince 249; Goldencents has 158 winners, Cairo Prince 156; they both, moreover, have 26 black-type horses. Sure enough, they stand for the same fee. But it's the Airdrie stallion who has a slight but consistent edge at the top end: by stakes winners (13 plays nine), graded stakes winners (five plays three) and graded stakes horses (ten plays seven).

Moreover Cairo Prince is one of those rare stallions whose initial market reception was way out of line with the ranking implied by his opening fee. We've seen, throughout this series, how that seldom guarantees anything–whether for better or worse. In this case, however, it has turned out that Cairo Prince was quite rightly “found” as a $10,000 start-up.

His stock was received with such enthusiasm that he actually earned two fee hikes before he had a single runner, an extremely rare accolade. And if he, too, has now required a trim from $25,000, then the buzz he generated with his sales debut in 2017–when he achieved a staggering average yield of 15 times his fee–will only now start to tell in the improved quality of his mares.

True, commercial opportunism tends to be finite wherever it occurs in the cycle, and Cairo Prince dropped to 87 mares last spring after being basically fully subscribed to that point. But it's a confident bet that the juveniles heading to the track this year, conceived after that remarkable sales debut, will give fresh commercial kudos to the foals he breeds this time round.

In the meantime, Cairo Prince continues to impress with his sales stock, averaging $47,601 for 57 sold of 78 offered in 2020, confirming him far and away the most resilient and productive sales sire in this group. He just needs his big horse, now, but he's having an excellent winter on the track (three new stakes winners over the past month) and, nationally, only Into Mischief, Tapiture, Not This Time and American Pharoah had more juvenile winners last year. And it certainly does no harm that he now has another productive young stallion so close up, his Grade I-placed half-sister having gained new celebrity as dam of WinStar's thriving rookie Outwork (Uncle Mo).

Mucho Macho Man | EquiSport Photos

In 2020, however, the star turn in this group was MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno–Ponche de Leona, by Ponche), who inserted himself between Goldencents and Cairo Prince in the third-crop prize money table with two Grade I winners. In previous years, of course, Mucho Gusto's success in the Pegasus World Cup would have been still more lucrative. Moreover that horse was unfortunate to be sidelined after his trip to the desert and only resurfaced when fourth behind Cairo Prince's latest graded stakes winner, Kiss Today Goodbye, in the GII San Antonio S. at Christmas.

Anyhow his sire followed through with an elite success on turf, as well, Rodeo Drive S. winner Mucho Unusual having meanwhile added another two graded stakes even since Christmas. In fact, with a total 51 winners from just 77 starters in 2020, Mucho Macho Man topped the national field last year in earnings-per-foal–and, importantly, we know that his stock is just going to keep thriving. Though precocious enough to contest all three legs of the Triple Crown before his third birthday, he kept filling that great rangy frame of his to win the GI Breeders' Cup Classic at five.

These results are barely filtering through to the commercial market, as he averaged $24,883 for 21 yearling sales of 28 offered, but then he only stands for $7,500. And he goes well at the juvenile sales (Mucho Gusto made no less than $625,000!) just as we should expect of a stallion who relies on deeds not hype. He's a mad outcross but is quietly earning his stripes and hopefully people are beginning to pay attention. His third book had dwindled to just 35, but he has since welcomed 96, 86 and 77 guests to Hill 'n' Dale at Xalapa. Lot of horse for the money, in every way.

Will Take Charge | Louise Reinagel

The rival Mucho Macho Man nosed out for his greatest success was a barely less imposing creature, but now finds himself on a rather less encouraging tangent. It seems a long time, certainly, since WILL TAKE CHARGE (Unbridled's Song–Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) set out at $30,000 and duly dominated this lot in their sales debut with a $169,190 average. This time round he cashed out 37 of 41 for just $13,712, and he's down to a bargain $5,000 at Three Chimneys after being reduced to a very small book last spring.

Will Take Charge has mustered a handful of stakes winners, notably Grade I-placed sprinter Manny Wah, and maybe he will just prove a slow burner, as will sometimes happen with such a scopey horse. His was an especially fine constitution by the standards of his sire, highlighted by an 11-start sophomore campaign that started in January and ended, 26 days after his huge run at the Breeders' Cup, with success in the GI Clark H. His maternal family, meanwhile, has only become more aristocratic with the rise of Omaha Beach (War Front). Everything seemed to be in place so it would be a mystery, as well as a pity, if he can't turn things round.

Cross Traffic | Sarah Andrew

CROSS TRAFFIC (Unbridled's Song–Stop Traffic, by Cure the Blues) is by the same sire and made a stronger start in contesting the succession, helped to the freshman's title by Breeders' Cup champion Jaywalk but also topping the class by overall stakes winners/ performers.

He has not quite maintained that flying start and Spendthrift, who briefly rewarded his freshman title with a hike to $25,000, will be hoping for a reset after halving him from $15,000 to $7,500 this time round. But there are solid grounds for optimism.

For a start, Cross Traffic is no longer dining out simply on Jaywalk. Among his second crop, Ny Traffic carried his standard very valiantly–never more conspicuously than when running Authentic (Into Mischief) himself to a head in the GI Haskell, while he was previously only beaten a length by Maxfield in the GIII Matt Winn S.

And Cross Traffic can soon expect a healthy spike in the graph, with his post-freshman, 2019 book having soared to 188 mares from 60. True, he promptly sank to 59 last year, but that's how fecklessly the commercial market works nowadays. The thing to remember now is that he will have that big crop of juveniles next year, so he's another who can hope that foals conceived this spring may ride fresh headlines on the track.

True, Cross Traffic stands in need of that revival after averaging just $11,630 for the 16 yearlings of 17 sent into the pandemic market, but at least he has exactly that chance brewing. Let's not forget how naturally talented he was, nailed only on the line in the stallion-making GI Met Mile just four months after his debut (got his Grade I next time).

As noted, many stallions in this group have been sold to regional programs or exported, and we're particularly sorry that Fed Biz (great work, Highfield Farm of Alberta!) and Noble Mission (GB) weren't able to get adequate traction. One or two others, however, appear to have slipped off Kentucky rosters with zero announcements on their relocation. I know the farms in question will have applied impeccable standards in deciding their future but it would be a concern if due candour about their “failure,” after so brief an opportunity, is being viewed as too instructive of the flimsiness of the commercial model.

Real Solution | ThoroStride

The only other member of this intake apparently still operating in the Bluegrass on a commercial basis is REAL SOLUTION (Kitten's Joy–Reachforthe-heavens, by Pulpit). Actually he has reversed the standard procedure, having returned to Calumet after a couple of years in Louisiana early on. But he certainly fits the bill for this farm as a dual Grade I winner on turf, with venerable Classic influences seeding his family: his third dam is a Northern Dancer half-sister to champion Slew o' Gold (Seattle Slew) and Classic winner Coastal (Majestic Prince), as well as to the dam of Aptitude (A.P. Indy).

Real Solution covered just 27 mares last spring and his handful of yearlings couldn't work even a $5,000 fee, but he's had a $675,000 2-year-old and, bottom line, he's there to breed runners. That's just what he produced (thanks to the breeders who made his sire) in Ramsey Solution, who is five-for-nine including a $300,000 stakes at Kentucky Downs last September.

In fact, Real Solution has had 33 winners from just 44 starters overall, including three at black-type level; while $10,000 yearling and six-time winner Queens Embrace earned a Grade II placing at Saratoga last summer. That shows what can be done if your priorities are right, and Real Solution could appeal to enlightened breeders as being well named.

In the long term, after all, the breed will suffer badly if people can only afford to use fast-buck commercial sires who are expelled from the Bluegrass the moment their first yearlings leave the sales ring. With so few stallions surviving in this intake, however, we'll combine them with the preceding class for a composite “value podium” next time.

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The deeper we go into our survey of Kentucky covering options for 2021, the fewer stallions remain standing. And those we reach today, about to launch a third crop of juveniles, have entered a decisive stage of their climb. Two or three are ascending confidently toward the next ridge; a handful are clinging tenaciously to a ledge; but many are now slithering unhappily down through the scree.

Several have already disappeared into regional or overseas programs. For now, the leading Bluegrass farms are persevering with 18 stallions from this group. It's a safe bet, however, that by this time next year, half of them will have been moved on. In each of the three preceding intakes, the same farms now retain no more than seven or eight.

In the course of this series, we've repeatedly remarked how unproven stallions are first supported and then abandoned with equal haste. But the foals conceived by these stallions this spring will have a far more legible value at the yearling sales of 2023. With a fifth crop on the track, their sires will by then have given us a legitimate sense of how their stock develop with maturity. There will be no more excuses.

The stakes, then, are now extremely steep. The rewards are potentially high, with fees generally tumbling, but the risk for the majority is clear. As such, it's no surprise that many commercial stallions should find their books virtually evaporating. He who lives by the sword dies by the sword. If you launch your stallion to appeal to short-term opportunists, you can't complain when they quit the scene in the same tearing rush as they first arrived.

Unless you're talking about a two-turn horse under restrained management–with the scope to become another Blame, say–these stallions tend to require immediate momentum from their first couple of crops. There can be no stalling as the lights go green. It's extremely rare, certainly, that the more commercial types get a reprieve after the remarkable fashion, in this group, of Daredevil.

Among those drinking in the last-chance saloon, then, who deserves the funding to go back up to the bar and order one more round? Who deserves one final opportunity to secure a viable stud career in Kentucky? At a time when generous fee cuts are being made across the roster, there will surely be a bargain or two for those bold enough to take a gamble.

Harvey's Lil Goil is one of two scorers at the top level for American Pharoah Coady

Naturally we start with AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof the Nile–Littleprincess-emma, by Yankee Gentlemen), who continues to do everything required by his stellar status and six-figure fee: champion freshman, now champion second-crop sire and once again well clear with his yearling averages too. But bold gambles need not be confined to the strugglers, and I do hope that someday his owners might think about giving this horse at least a year on their farm in Ireland.

The fact is that only one of American Pharoah's six graded stakes winners in 2020 came on dirt (and that was in Japan). Partly this reflects the fact that he already has quite good representation in Europe–not least through the homebred Van Gogh, among the favorites for Epsom after rounding off his first season at Ballydoyle with a four-length Group 1 success in France. American Pharoah's other elite scorer, however, is Harvey's Lil Goil, who left the main track to win the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup and then got within half a length in the Filly & Mare Turf at the Breeders' Cup. The slightly startling bottom line is that American Pharoah, by North American dirt earnings, finished behind nine other second-crop stallions with two black-type winners from 82 starters in 2020.

Ashford is offering him at $100,000 for 2020, having soon listed him as “private” after launching him at $200,000, and he's not going to lack either quality or quantity any time soon. After a Breeders' Cup winner from his first crop of juveniles, he welcomed another 153 mares last spring, following nearly 800 across his first four years. And he had two outstanding sophomores on dirt in Japan, so we're plainly talking about a versatile sire rather than any kind of strict specialist.

In this day and age, after all, it should only be an increasing asset–including in the domestic market–for a Triple Crown winner to parlay his class into different environments. (His own sire, remember, broke his maiden on turf and took a synthetic route to the Kentucky Derby where he finished second in the slop.)

A sojourn in Europe would give breeders there a thrilling opportunity. But American breeders will doubtless remain so jealous of this historic achiever that the Europeans will just have to keep shipping mares if they want competition for Galileo (Ire) and his sons. Certainly it's none of my business to tell the best in the business how to run their business. They will know the English expression, “If it ain't broke, don't fix it.” And American Pharoah's third crop of yearlings averaged $227,820 for 49 sold of 68 into the ring, including a couple of seven-figure sales.

That was admittedly well down on his first couple of crops, which both exceeded $400,000. But it's a very solid yield compared with most of these stallions. The market for third-crop yearlings, remember, is notoriously porous at the best of times; and this cycle, collectively, was under freakish additional pressure in the pandemic economy. To be broadsided in this fashion, precisely when most commercially vulnerable, demands an invisible asterisk for every yearling they sold in 2020.

Constitution | Sarah Andrew

The one who has bucked that trend most comprehensively is CONSTITUTION (Tapit–Baffled, by Distorted Humor). With his flagship Tiz the Law continuing to thrive as a sophomore, WinStar's comet advanced his third crop of yearlings to $137,351, up again from $95,314 after a big debut crop had been rather coolly received at $71,424. His fee has taken parallel steps, having been cut to $15,000 from an opening $25,000 before earning hikes to $40,000 and now $85,000. Last year, similarly, having slipped to 85 mares in his fourth season, he broke into the top five books in the nation with no fewer than 231 covers.

Besides the stellar Tiz the Law, in 2020 Constitution admittedly mustered just one other graded stakes winner in Laura's Light (scored at both Grade II and III level). But no fewer than 19 black-type performers represented nearly 14% of starters, building on the unarguable breadth of impact (eight graded stakes horses) made by his first juveniles the previous year. For what it may be worth, his sojourn in Chile has been no less productive with three youngsters winning Group 1s.

Constitution has put himself in the vanguard of those sons of Tapit contesting the eventual succession, and his own profile–unraced at two, clocked a 111 Beyer in the GI Donn at four–suggests that his stock should continue to consolidate from here. Like American Pharoah, his family has been seeded by one or two quirky names, but there are good horses close up on his page and, one way or another, everything is falling into place. He is becoming a model of what farms hope to achieve with a young commercial stallion.

Daredevil | Louise Reinagel

This time last year, the game already appeared to be up for Constitution's former studmate DAREDEVIL (More Than Ready–Chasethewildwind, by Forty Niner). We should congratulate The Jockey Club of Turkey, in fact, for profiting from the panicky temperament of the American commercial market. Having imported a modest but presentable freshman sire, with 13 winners from 41 starters, they saw two of his first sophomores improve into Grade I winners and were immediately able to repatriate Daredevil to Lane's End to stand at $25,000.

Of course, it may yet prove that everyone has now overreacted to his triumph no less than they did in dismissing him as a $7,500 dud. In percentage terms, none of these stallions owes so much to their principal earner as does Daredevil to his extraordinary GI Preakness winner Swiss Skydiver–and we know that any sire can come up with one freaky good horse. Hence the vital importance of Shedaresthedevil beating Swiss Skydiver in their stunning GI Kentucky Oaks one-two; moreover, Daredevil's only other black-type winner of 2020 graduated from Ohio-bred company to chase home Vequist (Nyquist), albeit at a respectful distance, in the GI Spinaway S.

So Daredevil had 'only' three black-type horses. And he had 'as many as' three Grade I horses. You decide. He has been priced strictly for believers, but let's remember that he did all this from not quite half as many starters as American Pharoah. Naturally, Daredevil was another of the few to drive up his third crop of yearlings, who rallied to $42,403 for 28 sales (of 42 offered) from $14,260 for his second.

After such a wild ride to date, it'll be fascinating to see how he stabilizes from here. If Daredevil himself couldn't go on from a juvenile Grade I success, it's encouraging that he's half-brother to an older campaigner as hard-knocking as Albertus Maximus (Albert the Great). His big problem will be the looming bump in the road resulting from just 21 covers in 2019.

Tapiture | EquiSport Photos

There will be no break in the traffic for TAPITURE (Tapit–Free Spin, by Olympio) at Darby Dan, where he significantly secured marginally his biggest book to date in his fifth year, up to 186 from 114 the previous year (after 525 covers across his first three seasons). He made the most of that footprint in 2020, with 16 black-type horses, albeit only one–Hopeful Growth in the GIII Monmouth Oaks–actually achieved graded stakes success. His principal earner was instead the $30,000 yearling Jesus' Team, who achieved a Classic podium in the GI Preakness S. and also emulated his sire as runner-up in the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

His prolific output secured Tapiture third place in the second-crop prize money table, albeit his percentages can duly be matched by a number of sires apparently struggling in his wake; and even he endured a declining yield at the yearling sales, down to $20,605 for 44 sold (from 67 into the ring) from $39,101 the previous year. (But that, as already noted, is pretty standard at the best of times–never mind in a pandemic market.)

In the round, he has done enough actually to advance his fee to $10,000 from $7,500, a rare distinction for a stallion at this stage of his career. His damsire introduces a backwater of the Nasrullah line but, judging from serial graded stakes performance or production by siblings, something is functioning consistently well. And, relative to many commercial sires, his key advantage is that his precocious returns could yet be consolidated by maturing stock: he won graded stakes at two, three and four.

Liam's Map | Asuncion Pineyrua

That should also prove true of LIAM'S MAP (Unbridled's Song–Miss Macy Sue, by Trippi), who was a late starter on the track but clocked 114 Beyers for both his Grade Is at four, and arguably surpassed even those performances when run down by Honor Code in a Whitney for the ages.

The first three home in that epic all ended up at Lane's End and, while I retain no less faith in the other two, it is Liam's Map who seems to have caught a following wind to this point. He first prospered from a very useful opportunism: the two stakes winners in his first crop of juveniles did the job properly, both scoring at Grade I level. Now Liam's Map has followed through with a solid fifth in the second-crop table, with seven stakes winners at essentially the same clip as American Pharoah and Constitution. If eking a second Grade I win out of Basin was candidly a bonus, the easy winner being later disqualified, then the GII Pat Day Mile success of Rushie was a validly fresh string to their sire's bow.

By the prudent standards of his farm, 156 mares in his fifth book–despite a hike from $20,000 to $35,000–represented a return to full subscription after Liam's Map had eased slightly, in familiar fashion, to 114 the previous year. A trim back to $30,000 will doubtless help to maintain momentum, and overall he appears to be in good shape. His third crop of yearlings averaged $80,435 for 39 sold of 54, holding up their value very well (second crop $118,801) relative to most in this intake.

That can be no surprise in one who himself cost $800,000 as a yearling, and whose pedigree has only grown more aristocratic with the flying start made at stud by half-brother Not This Time (Giant's Causeway). A family like theirs, combined with six triple-digit Beyers in eight starts, meant that Liam's Map always seemed destined to make the grade. And he could not be in better hands to stay on course now.

Honor Code | Lane's End

Somehow things don't seem to have fallen quite so obligingly for HONOR CODE (A.P. Indy–Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat) on the same roster, but I believe he remains well qualified to succeed in the long term. He was unlucky that fate restricted his flagship Honor A. P. to a single performance that did justice of his true merit, in the GI Santa Anita Derby. Moreover, the odds against Honor Code are potentially now compounded by the arrival of his physically stunning son as a rival in the same stallion shed–and a rival, moreover, priced as the outstanding value of Kentucky's entire new intake.

Honor Code's quiet start with his first juveniles left him chasing the pace somewhat, and he was cut to $30,000 from an opening $40,000 to receive 85 mares last spring, following four basically full books of around 150. Half a dozen stakes horses in 2020 represented a steady gain, Honor A. P. finding his best support from the GIII Withers success/GI Travers podium of Max Player, and another cut (to $20,000) should help to maintain his appeal to more patient breeders. He certainly throws a seductive foal and $50,068 for 51 (of 73) yearlings sold from his third crop was a familiar kind of slip–for this vulnerable group, in this market–from $75,494.

He should certainly retain his appeal to anyone who might be disposed to retain a filly. The maternal line is obviously regal, while the cross between sire and damsire combines twin bulwarks of Secretariat's broodmare prowess. With plenty of maturing talent on stream, Honor Code could yet replicate his Whitney performance, when taking off from the rear and running down the trail-blazing Liam's Map. But there's no denying this looks an important year for him.

The second half of this instalment in our ongoing series will appear [in tomorrow's edition], among others featuring the likes of Tonalist, Karakontie (Jpn), Summer Front and Palace Malice, as well as our latest value podium.

The post Kentucky Sires for 2021: Third-Crop Sires, Part I appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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UPSTART (Flatter–Party Silks, by Touch Gold) was cleverly named and I think him a very plausible type, likely to rise pretty quickly through the ranks. Certainly there were more than enough “nouveaux riches” among his first juveniles–only Not This Time exceeded his 19 winners (from 54 starters)–for him to be pegged at $10,000 by Airdrie. His principal earner was Reinvestment Risk, who twice chased home speedball Jackie’s Warrior (Maclean’s Music) in Grade Is after romping on debut at Saratoga, but a measure of what may be coming down the tracks was the 12-length debut success of Manor House at Laurel just before Christmas.

Remember Upstart himself was multiple Grade I-placed at two, three and four, so expect him to keep consolidating from an opening book of 146 and in the process to ride out a dip in numbers since to 86 and then just 38. Very auspiciously, his first yearlings (whose $63,608 average exceeded six times his fee) prompted renewed traffic last spring to 90 mares. And actually his second crop maintained value and demand far better than most, 41 of 47 selling for another very fertile yield, relatively speaking, at $45,159. In the meantime he had also excelled in a challenging 2-year-old market, his $104,400 average giving him virtual parity with a far more expensive pair in Nyquist and Frosted.

There’s no mistaking professional enthusiasm for Upstart’s stock, physically. But the key is that the speed shown by his earlier types is just a foundation; they’re bred and built to stretch, too. I can’t imagine that Flatter has had another juvenile clock a triple-digit Beyer, and there’s a really wholesome depth and balance to his pedigree.

His dam, a half-sister to a Grade II winner, is by Touch Gold–who combines distaff legends Deputy Minister and Buckpasser. This just looks so good opposite the Secretariat-Buckpasser combination behind Weekend Surprise, mother of Flatter’s sire A.P. Indy.

Speightster | PM Photos

One at the same fee who did even better in terms of holding the value of his second crop was SPEIGHTSTER (Speightstown–Dance Swiftly, by Danzig), no mean achievement given the sheer volume he had generated at WinStar.

Having opened up with a $63,680 dividend, virtually identical with Upstart, for 71 yearlings sold from no fewer than 97 offered in his first crop, Speightster managed $59,153 for 43 of 58 offered this time round. That was sufficient to secure fifth in the averages, and represents a quite remarkable vote of confidence after a solid 15 winners from 63 starters. A couple of those scored at black-type level, though perhaps nothing Speightster has done so far quite equalled the splash of his $1.1 million son at OBS in the summer.

His profile contrasts sharply with that of Upstart, having blitzed his first three (sophomore maiden/allowance/GIII Dwyer) before derailing on only his fourth start. That may or may not have been the tip of an iceberg, but the pedigree could hardly have been more auspicious. What a frisson, nowadays, just to see a dam by Danzig–never mind one who is sister to Dance Smartly and half-sister to Smart Strike. This is obviously one of the great Canadian dynasties, while a physical resemblance to his farm’s venerable patriarch can only aid Speightster’s cause in contesting the succession. He has relentless numbers behind him, too, having opened with books of 174, 150, 124 and 152, so one way or another there’s a lot of belief out there.

Air Force Blue | Coolmore

His buoyancy offers a curious contrast with another who prizes Danzig in the second generation. The first juveniles of AIR FORCE BLUE (War Front–Chatham, by Maria’s Mon) performed to a very similar level–in fact more winners from fewer runners (17 from 46), albeit just couldn’t crack a stakes win–but who suffered quite a slide in the value of his second crop of yearlings: his 34 sales (of 50) this time round realizing $46,145, down from the $98,230 (albeit for only 44 sold of 73 into the ring) on his sales debut.

One obvious difference is that Ashford started him at $25,000, but he has taken repeated trims and is now down to $10,000. Another is that Air Force Blue failed to go on after a sensational juvenile career, so we’ll now be looking for him to draw on his pedigree to keep his stock progressing with maturity. That’s certainly possible: his second dam is full-sister to Flanders (Seeking the Gold), a champion herself and dam of another in Surfside (Seattle Slew), while copper-bottomed influences seed his entire family tree. But you suspect the biggest hesitation has been a reputation made on turf, such a culpable prejudice in the commercial market.

In fact nine of his 17 winners scored on dirt, and this horse deserves a fresh chance at such a friendly fee. He was a genuinely top-class juvenile for Ballydoyle and it looks a really positive sign that the conveyor belt picked up again last spring when opening books of 153, 106 and 90 were followed by one of 135.

Exaggerator | Sarah Andrew

Nobody threw numbers at the track in the same volume as EXAGGERATOR (Curlin–Dawn Raid, by Vindication), so 14 winners from as many as 69 starters has to go down as pretty tepid. As many as five, however, managed a stakes podium. Having launched at WinStar off $30,000, he housed 63 of 103 yearlings in his first crop for $85,746 but it proved tough going for his 76 into the ring this time, 56 processed at just $25,982. He has taken a third consecutive cut, to $15,000, but will maintain the numbers after a fourth book of 104, having opened with 162, 163 and 129.

If this is the kind of industrial process that makes some of us uncomfortable, then Exaggerator did at least demonstrate some old-school wares in banking $3.6 million through 15 starts in 16 months, actually bookending his career in the same races as Nyquist. The pair also exchanged verdicts in the Derby and Preakness, one of three Grade I prizes won by an admirable racehorse of good Canadian family. You’d expect Exaggerator’s stock to keep thriving, then, as and when finding their stride.

The same farm launched TOURIST (Tiznow–Unbridled Melody, by Unbridled’s Song) at $12,500 but has had to make repeated cuts, now to $5,000, after failing to find any commercial traction with his first two crops: the first realized $27,996 for 41 sales (of 58 offered) and this time round he was down to $14,533 for 16 of 23. With his books dwindling–134, 102, 70 and 60–he needs his stock to stick to the program, having himself improved relentlessly through four campaigns until ultimately shocking Tepin (Bernstein) in the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile in a race-record 1:31.71. He laid a feasible base with 13 winners from 43 starters, and the market’s distaste for turf meant that he would always be a longer-term project.

Flintshire | Louise Reinagel

Speaking of grass, you can only despair that a horse as accomplished as FLINTSHIRE (GB) (Dansili {GB}–Dance Routine {GB}, by Sadler’s Wells) should struggle for patronage in Kentucky. Hill ‘n’ Dale at Xalapa now offers him at $10,000, half his opening fee, after his fourth book sank to just 38. Nobody could be surprised, given his own template, that he mustered only half a dozen winners from his first 36 juveniles. But the fact is that anyone far-sighted enough to support him now will be able to ride the wave as his strong early support from an ownership group including Juddmonte plays out (opened with 121, 89 and 69) in his maturing stock.

It’s tiresome to hear people talk so reverently about expanding turf opportunities, or the importance of soundness, when they don’t seem to respect even this nugget from the Juddmonte program: by one of the best-bred stallions in Europe out of a Classic-placed mare, he became its richest-ever graduate as a five-time Grade/Group I winner of $9.5 million (also dual Arc runner-up) whose turn of foot was measured at :44.56 for his closing half-mile in the GI Manhattan. His first crop of yearlings had fared reasonably well, clearing as many as 45 of 52 at $46,686, but 14 of 25 this time round scraped together a yield of $19,552. But you reap what you sow and if this industry can only make fast, precocious dirt horses pay, it will someday learn to regret it.

Mshawish | Taylor Made

Turf is only one of the strings to the bow of MSHAWISH (Medaglia d’Oro–Thunder Bayou, by Thunder Gulch), fourth of 19 in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club before being imported to win Grade Is, on both surfaces, at five and six. He has taken another cut at Taylor Made, now down to $7,500 from an opening $20,000, despite mustering a solid 13 winners from 42 starters.

That reflects the usual dwindling books (just 40 mares last spring, down from 117, 73 and 68) and a dip by his second crop of yearlings to an average $16,515, for 14 of 19 sold, down from $39,338 for 42 sales from 56 first time round. But he remains a very wholesome option with his seven consecutive triple-digit Beyers and average earnings of $100,000 per start through 24 races. His versatility is not just down to his sire, with a dam inbred 3×3 to Storm Bird; while his granddam is a half-sister to the mother of champion Halfbridled (Unbridled). As a longer play, still every chance.

The Albaugh Family team, which brought us Not This Time, offers a value alternative by the same sire in BRODY’S CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway–Sweet Breanna, by Sahm) at Spendthrift. He made quite an impression with his first juveniles: only half a dozen winners (from 29 starters) but they were good ones: two won at stakes level and four made the podium in graded stakes, notably GIII Iroquois S. winner Sittin On Go and GI Starlet S. runner-up Kalypso, who has since won the GII Santa Ynez S. on the third day of her sophomore career.

Like Not This Time, he extends a regal bottom line: his fourth dam, indeed, is by Dr. Fager out of a Bold Ruler half-sister to Secretariat’s dam Somethingroyal. His second dam was Grade I-placed and Brody’s Cause himself won Grade I races at two and three and, while he didn’t last the course, had established himself among the best of his generation and looks a bet to nothing now that he is down to $5,000 from an opening $12,500. He does have some weight of numbers, too, with initial books of 101 and 110 before dipping to 63 and 49. After a promising debut at the sales (33 sold of 51 yearlings at $50,166), he was another to struggle with his second crop (27 sold of 34 at $25,596) but he is definitely, definitely still in the game–and a viable sanctuary for those priced out of Not This Time.

Hit It a Bomb | Spendthrift

On the same farm, HIT IT A BOMB (War Front–Liscanna {Ire}, by Sadler’s Wells) has given himself a squeak at the same fee–not just with GII Best Pal winner Weston among his handful of winners, but also with a startling $330,000 colt at Fasig-Tipton in September. That boosted his second-crop average to $47,916 for a dozen sold of 15, but even a $23,500 median was solid after 15 in his first crop averaged $30,153 (median $13,000).

These are hardly the industrial numbers familiar on this farm but actually he rallied to 47 mares last spring from a third book of just 20, after opening with 48 and 49. It’s all chlorophyll, obviously, but the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner is brother to another juvenile Group 1 scorer from a classy family.

Another down to the bottom tier at Spendthrift is CINCO CHARLIE (Indian Charlie–Ten Halos, by Marquetry), though he managed no fewer than 14 winners from just 31 starters, including one at stakes level. He also made quite a stir with a $200,000 filly at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Old Sale, albeit seven second-crop yearlings (from 10 into the ring) realized just $6,600 down from $20,944 (for 19 of 26) first time round. Cinco Charlie did match his precocity (GIII Bashford Manor S. second time out) with hardiness, racking up seven black-type wins in 18 starts, so don’t rule out farther progress; while his second dam is by none other than Halo.

We know to expect interesting stallions at Crestwood and TEXAS RED (Afleet Alex–Ramatuelle {Chi}, by Jeune Homme), rather wonderfully, has earned a hike in fee to $10,000 from $7,500 after pulling GII Sorrento S. winner My Girl Red out of his hat. She was among eight scorers from just 19 starters.

Texas Red will have to ride out a couple of quieter years but opening books of 81 and 67 give scope for consolidation and he was, after all, a brilliant runner. His 104 Beyer romping at the Breeders’ Cup was backed up in an interrupted sophomore campaign, beating Frosted in the GII Jim Dandy besides running a top-class sprinter in Lord Nelson (Pulpit) to a neck over seven furlongs. A classy South American family also makes him a very accommodating outcross.

Firing Line | Crestwood

Studmate FIRING LINE (Line of David–Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) works from a narrow base but had four winners from his 13 starters. He had sold 20 of 21 yearlings in his first crop, including a colt and filly that each made six figures, while one of his daughters soared to $210,000 at OBS in June. If things were quieter for his yearlings this time round, Firing Line retains plenty of interest on performance, denied a Grade I at two only by a nose and the Derby itself only by a Triple Crown winner; and also on pedigree, his dam a Grade I-placed sibling to the mothers of two Grade I-winning milers, their line extending to matriarchs Kamar (Key to the Mint) and Square Angel (Quadrangle).

Another to give striking encouragement from a small base is TAMARKUZ (Speightstown–Without You Babe, by Lemon Drop Kid) at Shadwell. From just 14 runners, he had five winners including GIII Bob Hope S. winner Red Flag and, though lacking numbers (third book was highest at 57), might merit a roll of the dice at $7,500 from an opening $12,500.

Having bowed out beating the next two winners of the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the GI Dirt Mile, Tamarkuz is out of a half-sister to two GI Belmont S. runners-up who has also produced a Group 1 miler in Without Parole (GB) (Frankel {GB}). You have to love a second dam by Storm Bird opposite his son Storm Cat as Speightstown’s damsire, and the maternal line tapers to some resonant names.

Wins from two to six suggest that his stock will keep flying the flag with maturity; and he also showed versatility in terms of surface. Though his first yearlings excelled, moving on 18 of 20 yearlings at $68,222, a handful of his second crop made no money to speak of. But one of only four hips at the 2-year-old sales made $160,000, and Tamarkuz should definitely interest anyone out there who might want to breed an actual racehorse for a small fee.

Beating Tamarkuz for the GII Kelso H. in 1:32.9 is the poster achievement for ANCHOR DOWN (Tapit–Successful Outlook, by Orientate), now $5,000 from an opening $10,000 at Gainesway. Eight winners from 18 runners was a very good start, given his small books, and he’s a half-brother to GI Test S. winner Sweet Lulu (Mr. Greeley). His sale yields are pretty standard for this level, but it should be noted that his clearance rate for both crops of yearlings were extremely high and he also went down well at the 2-year-old sales, with a $270,000 colt and $200,000 filly. Competition is obviously tough among heirs to the farm’s champion but less so at this level.

There are a handful of others in this intake whose numbers are too precarious to repay much dredging. But the likes of BIG BLUE KITTEN (Kitten’s Joy–Spent Gold, by Unaccounted For) and PRODUCER (GB) (Dutch Art {GB}–River Saint, by Irish River {Fr}) at Calumet, or V. E. DAY (English Channel–California Sunset, by Deputy Minister) at Buck Pond Farm, were always going to be longer-term projects and so remain entitled to repay perseverance.

And we should highlight a conspicuous achievement apiece by three who share the same, great damsire: $2,500 cover OPTIMIZER (English Channel–Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy) at Calumet, for pulling a $190,000 filly out of his hat at Keeneland in September; IRONICUS (Distorted Humor–Meghan’s Joy, by A.P. Indy) for coming up with an unbeaten stakes winner from his small footprint from Claiborne at $5,000; and PROTONICO (Giant’s Causeway–Alpha Spirit, by A.P. Indy), at the same fee, for a potentially game-changing start to 2021.

A rootless start to his stud career can hardly have helped his cause. Yet his three winners from eight starters include Medina Spirit, a $1,000 yearling who closed to within a length of the Derby favorite in the GIII Sham S. Protonico’s second dam is Chilean Horse of the Year and Grade I winner Wild Spirit (Chi) (Hussonet), and a half-length miss in the GI Clark H. left him cents short of millionaire status. Medina Spirit is the kind of flagship that would be trumpeted from the rooftops by farms who throw 200 mares at rookie stallions, so to come up with this dude from an opening book of 34 entitles Castleton Lyons to hope that he could yet claw his way from the back lanes to the highway.

That’s the kind of frayed highwire all these horses are walking now. And while many will lose their footing, the great thing is that some of them are suddenly going to break into a run.

CHRIS McGRATH’S VALUE PODIUM
Gold: Frosted ($25,000, Darley)
   A champion at the right distance, out of a Deputy Minister mare, and no less likely to succeed now than when he was $50,000.
Silver: Upstart ($10,000, Airdrie)
   His record and pedigree guarantee that a fine start by his juveniles is only the beginning.
Bronze: Speightster ($10,000, WinStar)
   A lot of people seem adamant that he’s about to take off.

The post Kentucky Sires for 2021: First Sophomores–Part II appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Unusually enough, this intake includes a third Grade I winner on both dirt and grass in WORLD OF TROUBLE (Kantharos–Meets Expectations by Valid Expectations), held at $15,000 by Hill ‘n’ Dale. This was an unusually efficient machine for the chaotic environment of the sprint division. His only defeat in his final eight starts measured by the neck of champion Stormy Liberal (Stormy Atlantic) in the GI Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint–when clocking the highest sophomore Beyer of the year. Though the GI Jaipur S. unfortunately proved to be his final bow, the scorch-marks have probably still to grow out of the turf after fractions of :21.99, :43.85 and 1:06.37.

He has an unsurprisingly brisk pedigree, out of a half-sister to one of his sire’s earlier stars in Bucchero, a fast and hardy stakes performer five seasons running and himself adaptable in terms of racing surface. World Of Trouble started with 107 mares and you’d expect somebody, somewhere, to hit a home run at the 2-year-old sales.

In contrast with all these switch-hitters, CATALINA CRUISER (Union Rags–Sea Gull by Mineshaft) offers an unadulterated dirt profile at Lane’s End, where he is given a tempting trim from $20,000 to $15,000 after covering 148 mares–the kind of number seldom exceeded at another farm that tends to resist market inundation.

There were times when this horse looked a genuine monster and, if needing maturity before drawing out the full capacity loaded into his brawn, nor did he mess around once getting going. He won over six furlongs on debut before clocking a 107 Beyer next time and then stretched out to take his first couple of Grade IIs by an aggregate 14 lengths. If his overall body of work was compressed (nine lifetime starts), its execution was remarkably purposeful (seven wins, six triple-digit Beyers, five Grade IIs). When he resumed at five, accordingly, he set a stakes record of 1:14.85 over 6.5 furlongs in the GII True North S.

Catalina Cruiser is a beast of a horse, a $370,000 KEESEP yearling, and I love that his half-brother Eagle (Candy Ride {Arg}) was also such a set-your-clock talent in graded stakes across four seasons. Their fourth dam is the Grade I-placed mother of Mt. Livermore (Blushing Groom {Fr}) and the pedigree is saturated with speed-carrying influences: Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, Seattle Slew and Secretariat all recur top and bottom, yet all back far enough to accommodate farther inbreeding. There’s something appealingly old-school about this big, bad, dirt bruiser, brimming with tractable energy, and he looks among the most attractive value of the intake at his new fee.

Our pick, when they were launched, was a pretty similar type in PRESERVATIONIST (Arch–Flying Dixie by Dixieland Band), who maintains a fee of $10,000 at Airdrie after managing a three-figure debut book. He may not be champion freshman, any more than was Blame (now doing so well in the cause of their sire). But anyone persisting in the quaint scheme of actually trying to breed a runner will be salivating: sire and dam both trace to King Ranch royalty, in Courtly Dee and Too Chic respectively, and the “stairwell” through his fourth generation doesn’t have a single creaking step.

If a slow burn, in terms of maturity, Preservationist was always fleet on the track and set a 3 1/2 Ragozin breaking his maiden at six furlongs. And he finished up as one of the best in the land, routing Catholic Boy (More Than Ready) by 4 1/2 lengths in the GII Suburban S. before sealing his Grade I in the Woodward S., beating the likes of Yoshida (Heart’s Cry {Jpn}) and Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike), whose good run signalled an admirable late bloom of his own.

Regardless, this is one of those cases where a horse only has to establish a basic competence for elite company to justify breeders in enthusiastically drilling such aristocratic seams. He is the 18th graded stakes winner under his first three dams, and looks the part too: he was a $475,000 KEESEP yearling, and we know his sire didn’t always get the commercial traction he merited.

We also know that the legacy of Arch is well worth preserving-making his last heir pretty aptly named. In fact, he sets a pretty fundamental challenge to all breeders. If you want to conserve the breed’s genetic family silver, while hopefully putting winners on your mare’s page at a sensible price, then Preservationist is a sire you have to consider. It’s a free country, of course, and you’re welcome to turn your back. If you do, however, you must at least admit to yourself what you’re prepared to throw away in the hope of making a faster buck. But look again at that pedigree and ask yourself whether any other $10,000 stallion could surprise you less, if siring a Classic winner?

His Airdrie buddy DIVISIDERO (Kitten’s Joy–Madame Du Lac by Lemon Drop Kid) is also backed up by a royal family, tracing to Cosmah/Almahmoud. This is obviously as potent as blood gets, uniting breed-shapers Halo and Northern Dancer and Danehill, albeit with a strong flavor of chlorophyll, not just through Kitten’s Joy, but also Nashwan and Sadler’s Wells–European titans responsible for Divisidero’s second and third dams.

Divisidero parlayed this inheritance into five consecutive seasons of graded stakes success, accumulating $1.6 million and 13 triple-digit Beyers. While his longevity attests to his durability and consistency, he also landed running: he won three of his first four, within 16 weeks of starting, his finishing kick earning a track record at Belmont as well as a Grade II on Derby day; that set him up to return and win the GI Woodford Reserve Turf Classic on the same card each of the next two years, meanwhile beaten barely a length in the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile.

People talk a good game about responding to the expansion of the turf/synthetics program in North America, but not many had the wit to see how much horse they were being offered here for $7,500. Maybe a trim to $5,000 will help to concentrate minds, because Divisidero has every right to sire an elite turf runner. Just run your eye down the four mares behind his dam’s grandparents: Miesque, Lassie Dear, Height Of Fashion and an unraced daughter of Cosmah and Round Table. That’s just one duchess after another. Needless to say, in an era when only deserving mares could get to top-class stallions, all were suitably paired as well. In other words, whatever filters through can only be the good stuff.

ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro–It’s Tricky by Mineshaft) represents an El Prado line that has achieved a lot more commercial traction, being adaptable to dirt–on which surface, indeed, his dam won three Grade Is. Having disappeared after an anonymous run in the 2018 GI Kentucky Derby, and unfortunately failed to reward perseverance at four, he was something of a forgotten horse by the time he returned to his native farm, Jonabell, last spring. Nonetheless 148 mares kept the faith at $10,000, driven by his juvenile accomplishments (third in the GI Champagne S. before winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.) and a physique that quite strongly echoes his glamorous sire. A clip to $7,500 should keep him in the game.

FLAMEAWAY (Scat Daddy–Vulcan Rose by Fusaichi Pegasus) finished just in front of Enticed when likewise a longshot in the Derby and never really lived up to his earlier defeat of Catholic Boy and Vino Rosso in the 2018 GIII Sam F. Davis S. But precocity will cover a multitude of sins, and it’s amazing how far you can get if you win sprinting in May and proceed to stakes success at the Spa. Like, this far: 183 mares at $7,500 in his first season at Darby Dan (a fee he duly retains).

In fairness, Flameaway demonstrated the versatility associated with his sire as a winner on three surfaces; won stakes at two, three and four; and, a $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling, can point to European queen Flame Of Tara (Ire) (Artaius) as his third dam.

It was always obvious that MAXIMUS MISCHIEF (Into Mischief–Reina Maria by Songandaprayer) would have them lining down the street at Spendthrift at the same fee. For here, alongside the farm’s elite recruits, was a luminous commercial prospect priced to serve the kind of clientele who had helped to launch his sire, himself now far beyond the reach of most. Sure enough, he received 196 into the harem.

Never having resurfaced after his first defeat, in the GII Holy Bull, Maximus Mischief left breeders to concentrate on a trailblazing, three-for-three campaign at two, by an aggregate 17 lengths, crowned in the GII Remsen S. Consecutive Beyers of 94, 98 and 97 qualified him as the fastest of the crop, and also as the fastest juvenile by his sire–whose early mares we know, as a rule, to have brought limited pages. As such, it’s a rare bonus to for Maximus Mischief’s dam to be a half-sister to Secret Compass (Discreet Cat), a Grade I winner at two. And he has physical presence, too, with rather more length and size than tends to be associated with a sire who certainly imparted his copyright brilliance.

Whatever happens with the top guns of the intake, you can be sure the guys at Spendthrift won’t lose their flair for this type. A fee like this, for a horse like this, was always going to generate a stampede. If he gets the odd bullet at the 2-year-old sales, people will soon be talking about the freshman’s championship, and, if they turn out to be right, Maximus Mischief will be passing a lot of these going the other way on the stairs. It feels a little cynical to buy into such a self-fulfilling cycle, but with that monster book behind him there’s an air of inevitability about this horse.

The fifth newcomer at Spendthrift last winter was COAL FRONT (Stay Thirsty–Miner’s Secret by Mineshaft), who covered 89 mares at $5,000. He’s an arresting physical, as a $575,000 OBSAPR 2-year-old, and a miler who clocked his briskest numbers sprinting. Nonetheless the right mares should draw out that speed through a second turn: both his parents share A.P. Indy as a grandsire, while his third dam is by A.P. Indy’s sire Seattle Slew. He’s a looker, too.

The others comprising this bottom tier of the Kentucky market share a grass orientation. Claiborne lives up to its best traditions in importing a precious European sire-line through DEMARCHELIER (GB) (Dubawi (Ire)–Loveisallyouneed (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells), who sailed through his maiden, allowance and graded stakes debut before breaking down in the GI Belmont Derby. Actually he represents a pretty rare blend even in Europe, his family having served Ballydoyle so well–three full sisters of the unraced dam were at least placed in Classics–while Dubawi has been vital to the Maktoums’ cause, increasingly now as a sire of sires as well. Demarchelier mustered 102 mares for his first season, which looks pretty purposeful in this corner of the market, so he’s a very interesting experiment.

HEART TO HEART (English Channel–Ask The Question by Silver Deputy) is yet another to keep us interested in the always imaginative Crestwood roster. What a template for any end-user: over $2 million banked through 15 wins in 41 starts across seven (!) campaigns, embracing 11 graded stakes wins and 18 triple-digit Beyers. And to think this winner of consecutive Grade Is at the age of seven had started out as a summer juvenile winning by eight lengths at 5.5 furlongs!

We know his sire to be under-rated, but his first two dams bring in glorious influences (respectively by Deputy Minister’s son Silver Deputy and Caro’s son Cozzene), while the second is also a sibling to a Grade I winner. If only bigger farms thought like this one, the breed would be heading in a much healthier direction.

LOST TREASURE (War Front-Wading {Ire} by Montjeu {Ire}) represents a succulent blend of Northern Dancer’s most potent blood in Europe, apparently drawing more on his sire’s speed than the Classic stamina of the family that gave us Galileo (Ire) and Sea The Stars (Ire). He got within a length of stunning Europe’s fastest sprinters at 100-1 in the G1 Prix de l’Abbaye, but never really followed through on that run. It’s now up to the reliable enterprise of Hill ‘n’ Dale to prevent him also slipping through the net in his second career.

Another confined to a small debut book was QURBAAN (Speightstown–Flip Flop {Fr} by Zieten). After starting his career in Europe, he found the American theater rather more to his liking with a couple of Grade II wins and multiple Grade I placings. Whatever he lacks in quantity will doubtless be redressed in quality at Shadwell.

CHRIS MCGRATH’S VALUE PODIUM:

Gold: Maximus Mischief ($7,500, Spendthrift)

Big first book spells potential freshman honors and all the momentum that entails.

Silver: Preservationist ($10,000, Airdrie)

May need longer than Maximus Mischief, but given the chance he has the bloodlines to breed champions.

Bronze: Omaha Beach ($35,000, Spendthrift)

Really, the gold standard: fairly priced fairly starting out, and even easier to stick with him now.

The post KY Value Sires for 2021: First Foals: Part II appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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