As the saying goes, 'you miss 100% of the shots you don't take,' and it was with that mindset that Get Smokin (Get Stormy)–a Grade II and Grade III winner, but unproven over the 12-furlong trip of the GII FanDuel Kentucky Cup Turf–was even entered in the first place. But given a perfect ride from the front by Fernando de la Cruz on a day the rail was where you wanted to be at Kentucky Downs, the chestnut, off at 19-1, forgot to stop and proved 1 3/4 lengths superior over Spooky Channel (English Channel) when all was said and done. Santin (Medaglia d'Oro) raced prominently throughout and settled for third.

“I have often told [Ironhorse Racing Managing Partner] Harlan [Malter] that he is the craziest owner I train for. But this was not a crazy idea,” winning trainer Mark Casse said in the immediate aftermath of the upset.

The hard-fought winner of a Gulfstream allowance first off a September layoff back in April, Get Smokin was sixth in a graded-stakes quality renewal of the Opening Verse S. at Churchill May 4, then was run down late and finished runner-up in the GIII Arlington S. June 3 and in the July 1 Wise Dan S. at Ellis. Tried over 10 furlongs for the first time in the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup Aug. 6, Get Smokin made the running, but was reeled in late and settled for fourth.

Though he had a bit of early company in the form of Santin in the final event of Saturday's stakes-laden program, Get Smokin took the field into the first turn and opened up four or five lengths on his rivals as they hit the backstretch. Despite the loose lead, Get Smokin switched off beautifully on the engine, getting the half in :49.61 and the opening six panels in a comfortable 1:14.18.

Even though the next couple of furlongs were covered in a testing :23.81, Get Smokin was still full of run down the side of the track, daring some proven stayers to come and get him. But catch him they could not, as he switched his leads at the quarter pole, flopped back and forth in the final furlong, but remained clear to the wire.

Malter was full of praise for de la Cruz, who won back-to-back runnings of the GII Woodford S. aboard Ironhorse's Bucchero (Kantharos) before also partnering with the horse in consecutive renewals of the GI Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.

“We looked at this race,” Malter said. “We wanted to test out at Ellis [in the 1 1/4-mile prep]. Even though we ran fourth, we were happy. He ran a similar figure to what he was running at a mile and a sixteenth. We were all systems go. We kind of came up with the idea to have Fernando. We made a very specific plan, and it's amazing how well Fernando executed it.”

Pedigree Notes:

By Get Stormy, winner of the GI Woodford Reserve Turf Classic at nine furlongs on the turf, Get Smokin is out of a mare by noted sprint sire Smoke Glacken. There is a bit of stamina as you go down the page, as second dam Doc's Leading Lady–the dam of MSW Spanish Pipedream (Scat Daddy)–was a full-sister to Phi Beta Doc, who set a Saratoga course record when winning the 1999 GIII Saranac S. over a mile and three-sixteenths before annexing that year's 10-furlong Virginia Derby, also in course-record time. Third dam Smart Queen was a half-sister to 1977 GII Arkansas Derby hero Clev Er Tell (Tell).

Hookah Lady is the dam of a 2-year-old colt by Vino Rosso who was a $32,000 RNA as a KEENOV weanling, then sold for $35,000 at KEESEP last fall before blossoming into a $550,000 OBS March breezer. Smoldering Ash, a yearling full-sister to Get Smokin, went for $102,000 at this year's Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July Sale to NBS Stable's John Ballantyne, coincidentally the owner of Turf Cup runner-up Spooky Channel. The mare produced a Classic Empire colt this year and was bred back to Practical Joke.

Saturday, Kentucky Downs
FANDUEL KENTUCKY TURF CUP S.-GII, $1,675,429, Kentucky Downs, 9-9, 3yo/up, 1 1/2mT, 2:28.66, fm.
1–GET SMOKIN, 122, g, 6, by Get Stormy
                1st Dam: Hookah Lady, by Smoke Glacken
                2nd Dam: Doc's Leading Lady, by Doc's Leader
                3rd Dam: Smart Queen, by King Pellinore

($11,000 Ylg '18 FTKOCT). O-Ironhorse Racing Stable LLC, BlackRidge Stables LLC, T-N-T Equine Holdings, LLC and Saratoga Seven Racing Partners, LLC; B-Hurstland Farm, Inc. & James Greene Jr. (KY); T-Mark E. Casse; J-Fernando De La Cruz. $972,220. Lifetime Record: 27-6-7-2, $1,650,497. Werk Nick Rating: B+. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Spooky Channel, 124, g, 8, English Channel–Spooky Kitten, by Kitten's Joy. ($10,000 Ylg '16 FTKOCT). O-NBS Stable; B-Calumet Farm (KY); T-Jason Barkley. $316,200.
3–Santin, 122, h, 5, Distorted Humor–Sentiero Italia, by Medaglia d'Oro. O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan P. Walsh. $158,100.
Margins: 1 3/4, HD, NO. Odds: 19.57, 17.54, 4.29.
Also Ran: Red Knight, Verstappen, Kitodan, Me and Mr. C, Therapist, Never Explain, Foreign Relations, Another Mystery, Nautilus (Brz). Scratched: Cellist, Highest Honors, Red Run, Sy Dog.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

GET SMOKIN ($41.14) smoked 'em in the $1.7 million @FanDuel Kentucky Turf Cup (G2) @LanesEndFarms #WinAndYoureIn @BreedersCup Challenge Series Race at @KYDownsRacing. Trained by @markecasse and ridden by Fernando De La Cruz. Congrats to owners Ironhorse Racing Stable! pic.twitter.com/oF6GOybm2E

— TVG (@TVG) September 9, 2023

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“He ran a great race at Colonial Downs,” said winning rider Gerardo Corrales. “This is the perfect distance for him, 12 furlongs. Gufo is a three-time Grade I winner. When Gufo came next to Red Knight, Red Knight actually saw him eye to eye and he got additional energy. He just never quit. He just kept trying.”

He added, “I've won two graded races in all my life, and they were this week with Kitodan in the [GIII] Dueling Grounds Derby and now with Red Knight.”

“I thought he was gonna get beat,” said winning trainer Mike Maker. “He dug in and fought hard. He is a fighter, he is a tough horse. He rode hm great and got him to the outside and go the job done.”

Winner of the GIII Sycamore S. back in 2020, Red Knight checked in second to GISW Arklow (Arch) in the GII Louisville S. last May and was fifth to recent GI Sword Dancer S. winner Gufo in the Grand Couturier S. last July. Fifth again in Saratoga's GII Bowling Green S. last summer, he was sixth in the restricted John's Call S. there a month later and was shelved for the season. Transferred from Bill Mott to Mike Maker in the interim, Red Knight rallied to victory in the Colonial Cup S. last out July 27 after 13 months on the sidelines.

Pedigree Notes:

Red Knight is a half-brother to MSW Macagone. Isabel Away's most recent produce is a 4-year-old gelding named Druid (Magician {Ire}).

Saturday, Kentucky Downs
KENTUCKY TURF CUP S.-GII, $694,180, Kentucky Downs, 9-10, 3yo/up, 1 1/2mT, 2:26.96, fm.
1–RED KNIGHT, 124, g, 8, by Pure Prize
                1st Dam: Isabel Away, by Skip Away
                2nd Dam: Indio Rose, by Alydar
                3rd Dam: Misukaw, by Northern Dancer
O/B-Trinity Farm, LLC (NY); T-Michael J. Maker; J-Gerardo
Corrales. $317,130. Lifetime Record: 29-10-8-1, $1,210,388.
*1/2 to Macagone (Artie Schiller), MSW, $654,981. Werk Nick
Rating: A. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Gufo, 124, h, 5, Declaration of War–Floy, by Petionville.
O-Otter Bend Stables, LLC; B-John Little & Stephen Cainelli
(KY); T-Christophe Clement. $186,000.
3–Another Mystery, 124, h, 6, Temple City–Ioya Two, by
Lord At War (Arg). O/B-Team Block (IL); T-Chris M. Block.
$51,150.
Margins: NO, NK, 1. Odds: 12.02, 1.63, 15.67.
Also Ran: Highest Honors, Admission Office, Arklow, Glynn County, Who's the Star, Rogue Element, Breakpoint (Chi), Temple, Keystone Field. Scratched: Militarist.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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After successfully defending his title in Saratoga's GI Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer S. Aug. 27, Gufo (Declaration of War) returns on short notice for the Kentucky Turf Cup. He is the 7-5 morning-line favorite. The 8-year-old Arklow (Arch) looks for his third win from five attempts in this contest following victories in 2018 and 2020, respectively.

Drawn widest of all in post 12, GII Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. winner and last out GI Jaipur S. runner-up Arrest Me Red (Pioneerof the Nile) is the 9-5 morning-line favorite in the Fanduel Turf Sprint.

The rescheduled GIII WinStar Mint Million S. features last year's winner Pixelate (City Zip). Originally carded for last Saturday, inclement weather forced the cancellation of racing following the day's seventh race.

The streaking Big Invasion (Declaration of War) is the clear-cut one to beat in the GII Franklin-Simpson S. following impressive wins in Saratoga's GIII Quick Call S. and Mahony S. “Every time he runs, he gets better,” jockey Joel Rosario said.

Princess Grace (Karakontie {Jpn}) and Dalika (Ger) (Pastorius {Ger}), one-two in the 2021 GIII Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf S., face off again in Saturday's renewal. Dalika got the better of her aforementioned rival by a half-length in last month's GI Beverly D. S. at Churchill Downs.

The globetrotting Campanelle (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}), most recently a dead-heat third in Royal Ascot's G1 Platinum Jubilee S., returns in the GIII Mint Ladies Sprint S. The full field of 12 also includes the race's defending winner In Good Spirits (Ghostzapper).

“For a non-Breeders' Cup card, this is truly amazing,” Ted Nicholson, Kentucky Downs' Vice President for Racing, said of Saturday's 12-race program.

Baffert Shooting for Fourth Straight Debutante…

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert will be represented by a pair, led by 9-5 morning-line favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Home Cooking (Honor Code), while looking for a fourth straight victory and 11th win overall in Saturday's GI TVG Del Mar Debutante S.

Home Cooking romped by 9 1/4 lengths with blinkers off at second asking Aug. 21 while her stablemate Fast and Shiny (Bernardini) won at a generous 6-1 on debut Aug. 7. Both are owned by Pegram, Watson and Weitman.

The rail-drawn Vegas Magic (Good Magic) puts a perfect three-for-three record on the line for Doug O'Neill following a 14-1 upset in the GII Sorrento S. Aug. 13.

Saturday's graded stakes action also includes: Del Mar's GII John C. Mabee S.; Pimlico's GIII Baltimore/Washington International Turf Cup S.; and the GIII British Columbia Derby at Hastings.

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Saying he's different is saying something, given that Donegal Racing's 6-year-old Arklow had earned almost $2 million in 28 races without blinkers, including victory in New York's Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic last year.

The Brad Cox-trained Arklow was much more engaged for jockey Florent Geroux early on during their 1 1/4-length Kentucky Turf Cup score over Red Knight, who won Keeneland's Grade 2 Sycamore in his next start. Meanwhile, Arklow has trained up to his third attempt at Saturday's $4 million Longines Breeders' Cup Turf, having finished fourth in 2018 at Churchill Downs and a deceptively good eighth — losing by a total of 2 3/4 lengths — last year at Santa Anita.

Arklow is the 5-1 co-third choice with New York-based Channel Maker in the Breeders' Cup Turf at Keeneland, whose 1 1/2-mile distance is the same as the Kentucky Turf Cup. The 5-2 favorite in the field of 10 is 2018 Breeders' Cup Turf runner-up Magical and the 3-year-old Mogul, with both trained by Irish kingpin Aidan O'Brien.

“A lot of people have forgotten, or never even knew, that he had the best speed figures of anyone in last year's Breeders' Cup, even though he finished eighth,” Donegal president Jerry Crawford said Thursday, referencing the Ragozin handicapping “sheets” that chart form cycles and the comparative speed of horses while taking into account trouble encountered in a race. “That's how wide he was the whole time. He was in great form them, but he's in dramatically better form now.

“All you have to do is talk to Brad Cox,” said Crawford, whose partners with Donegal in Arklow are Joseph Bulger and Peter Coneway. “I, frankly, have never heard Brad so positive and confident in a horse as he is in Arklow on Saturday. Which is not to say that we don't have enormous respect for the Europeans. They're always very, very good – and we've got to beat Channel Maker, too. It's truly a world championship race. We think Arklow belongs and has an excellent chance. In Brad's words, as good a chance as anybody.”

Cox has said he was tempted before to add blinkers but that it was hard to make a change on a horse who was so productive. The opportunity came after Arklow finished fourth in Monmouth Park's Grade 1 United Nations, an audible called after he came in a disappointing sixth in Keeneland's Grade 2 Sycamore. The thought was that Arklow was leaving himself too much to do. Not only did the blinkers encourage the horse to position himself closer to the pace — as he had been in winning the Joe Hirsch last year — but his timed workouts in the morning have been much stronger.

Crawford quips that “a lot of owners would be smarter than to wait until a horse was 6 to try blinkers. That's on me. Brad put them on for a breeze after our ill-fated six-days rest before running at Monmouth Park. He called and said, 'We've got a whole new horse.'

“We saw his ability to get to the front (group) of horses in the Kentucky Turf Cup and was sitting on go the whole way, really, and not only held on but pulled away. I don't know how you could run a more impressive race than that.”

Said Cox: “That's the thing you do with blinkers: trying to get a horse more involved. He ran a great race at Kentucky Downs, really just kicked away from them late. Really pleased with his effort.

“He's doing better now than ever, so (we have) more confidence this year than the past,” he said of the Breeders' Cup Turf. “The Europeans are always tough in that division. We'll have to step up and run a race of a lifetime in order to win it. He's training like he's going to give us a race of a lifetime, so we're optimistic we'll be in the mix.”

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Wearing blinkers for the first time in 29 career races, the 6-year-old Arklow laid up close to the pace under Florent Geroux and took command through the long stretch for a 1 1/4-length victory over Red Knight. Zulu Alpha was another length back in third after coming from near-last.

“We have nothing but respect for Zulu Alpha,” Crawford said of the 2019 Kentucky Turf Cup winner to whom Arklow was second in last year's running of the track's richest race. “He was the best mile-and-a-half turf horse in the world coming into the Kentucky Turf Cup. But if you beat the best, then you're in the conversation.”

“I think he was in the conversation anyway, just because of his trainer,” Hui said of Arklow's trainer, Brad Cox.

The Mike Maker-trained Zulu Alpha started his 7-year-old season with a victory over an international field in Gulfstream Park's Grade 1, $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf, in which Arklow was fifth. Saturday marked the 10th time the horses had squared off, the two evenly split 5-5 for number of times finishing in front of the other.

Now the focus for both horses is squarely on the $4 million Longines Breeders' Cup Turf on Nov. 7 at Keeneland. Arklow won a maiden race at Keeneland and was second in the 2018 Grade 2 Sycamore, won by Zulu Alpha in the gelding's first race for Hui. Zulu Alpha also won Keeneland's July 12 Elkhorn in his last start before Saturday's race.

“Zulu is good, he was bouncing around the barn cooling out, had a lot of energy,” Hui said of the defeat. “You could tell he knew he didn't win. It's onward; we'll move on. We're just going to stick with the playbook we laid out after he won the Pegasus.”

Both horses have been fourth in the Breeders' Cup Turf; Arklow in 2018 at Churchill Downs and Zulu Alpha last year at Santa Anita.

Zulu Alpha will train up to this Breeders' Cup, Hui said. Arklow could run back in New York's Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, which the horse won last year to become a Grade 1 winner.

“Our next decision is: Do we go to the Joe Hirsch in three weeks and then give him five weeks to the Breeders' Cup? Do we just train him up to the Breeders' Cup?” Crawford said. “Brad is very, very pleased with the way he came out of the race. You want him to be fresh going into the Breeders' Cup, but you don't want him to be stale. To figure that out is the next challenge.”

Arklow crashed through the $2 million mark for earnings and now has made $2,446,116, the vast majority in his 24 turf starts spanning seven wins, six seconds and a third.

“I have a lot of confidence going forward with the equipment change that we're going to see more of the old Arklow,” Crawford said.

Crawford said that as much as bragging on Arklow, he wanted to praise stakes-sponsor Calumet Farm, Calumet owner Brad Kelley and Kentucky Downs. Crawford said that they make it possible “so that we can brag on horses like him.

“Kentucky Downs is one of the niftiest racetracks anywhere. What they do to make it so lucrative, the sport would be nowhere without them.”

The post ‘More Of The Old Arklow’: Blinkers Made The Difference As Brad Cox Trainee Eyes Breeders’ Cup Turf appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Where Zulu Alpha had gotten the best of his rival in last year's edition of the Grade 3, $1-million Calumet Farm Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes, trading blows had been the name of the game for the two warriors in their nine meetings prior to Saturday. So after losing Kentucky Downs bragging rights with a second in 2019, Arklow fittingly turned the tables on his old foe when he captured the 1 1/2-mile Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes by 1 1/4 lengths over Red Knight, with Zulu Alpha a late-running third.

Trained by Brad Cox for Donegal Racing, Joseph Bulger, and Peter Coneway, Arklow previously annexed the Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes in 2018 and has been a stalwart in his division -– placing in the top three eight times since that triumph, including a runner-up effort in this race last year. Things haven't been as smooth for the 6-year-old son of Arch since winning the 2019 Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes, however, as he had lost his last five starts coming into Saturday's test.

Zulu Alpha, by contrast, had won three of four starts in 2020 including a victory in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational on January 25. That momentum would be blunted over the soft ground on Saturday though as Arklow — wearing blinkers for the first time in a race — got a perfect trip sitting in the first flight just off the leaders before making his winning bid down the lane under jockey Florent Geroux.

“He was pretty sharp coming into this race,” Cox said of Arklow. “It's easy to say it now, but we had a lot of confidence that he would move forward with the blinkers. He likes it down here and obviously when it started raining it gave us even more confidence. He definitely likes a little juice in the ground, and he responded well.

“Florent did a good job getting him involved. That has a lot to do with this horse, how he runs, his involvement early on in a race.”

While Arklow was rated fifth, then fourth, as Changi took the field through the opening half mile in :50.27, Zulu Alpha was well back and had just one foe beat in 10-horse field. Longshot Eons grabbed the lead heading down the hill but Arklow was perched three wide at that point, waiting for the signal from Geroux to do more.

“It was a great trip for him. He was closer to the lead than he's used too,” Geroux said. “First time with blinkers, at 6 years old, helped him and the ground also helped. From there I just nursed him around and he waited for my signal down the stretch. He was able to hold off those horses pretty easily.”

Arklow paid $13.60 as the third choice in the field of 10 older horses. He became only the third two-time winner of the stakes, joining back-to-back winners Rochester (2002-2003) and Da Big Hoss (2015-16).

“Donegal Racing is very appreciative of Mr. (Brad) Kelley and Calumet Farm for sponsoring this race,” said Donegal president Jerry Crawford. “Donegal has won it two of the last three years and finished second the third time. We're grateful for Kentucky Downs and for the Calumet folks. Obviously, Arklow loves it there. He loves going that far. I think the addition of blinkers made a huge difference. He was able to lay closer to the pace and nobody is going to get past him once he has the lead in the stretch. We're very excited.”

At the top the stretch, Arklow took command for himself and turned back a threat from eventual runner-up Red Knight. Beaten favorite Zulu Alpha could only get up for show money, a length behind Red Knight.

“Everything worked out. We had a nice clean trip,” said Tyler Gaffalione, jockey Zulu Alpha. “The only thing I would say is that maybe the ground was getting away from him down the stretch. He was really digging in, trying to go get that horse, but it was just breaking away from him. Might be a little soft out there for him. It was a great performance. He tried hard the whole way. He's all class and hopefully we'll rebound in the Breeders' Cup (Turf).”

The final time for the distance over a course rated soft was 2:28.66.

In addition to improving his record to seven wins from 29 starts with earnings of $2,466,116, Arklow continued a hot streak for Cox and Geroux as the two paired up to capture the Kentucky Oaks on September 4 with Shedaresthedevil at Churchill Downs after winning the Grade 1 La Troienne Stakes on the undercard with champion Monomoy Girl.

“Honestly I really trained on him pretty strong for this race, zeroed in on this race,” Cox said of Arklow. “He had a fantastic work a couple of weeks back at Churchill on the turf. He had a huge gallop out that day. He'd been touting himself a lot going into this.

“It's great. It's been a busy week and a half,” Cox added. “Just trying to build off it, get bigger and better horses all the time. Looking to pick off races like this is what it's all about.”

The post Blinkers, Soft Ground Help Arklow Turn Tables On Zulu Alpha In Kentucky Turf Cup appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Eleven horses will try to beat the likely betting choice, including Arklow, who won this race in 2017 and who finished second to Zulu Alpha in the Turf Cup last year. However, Arklow enters this race off poor fourth and sixth place efforts and is adding blinkers for the first time in hopes of reversing his recent non-threatening efforts. Red Knight is a horse proven at this distance and beyond, having won the Point of Entry Stakes last October and the two-mile H. Allen Jerkens Stakes in December of 2018. Another with a chance to compete is Postulation, most recently beaten three-quarters of a length when second to Zulu Alpha in the Elkhorn.

Then there's Hierarchy, entering the race off a second of 11 finish in the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup Stakes last month at Ellis Park. Many of the rest have yet to run well at this distance or in stakes but could jump up to compete on this occasion. He's No Lemon could be one of those as he recently won at the distance of 11 furlongs on turf and last summer was placed first via a disqualification in the mile and one-half Bald Eagle Derby. The rest of the field consists of American Tattoo (ARG), Bundibunan, Celerity, Changi, Eons, Grand Journey, Perfect Tapatino (FR), Standard Deviation, Surprise Twist and Tintoretto (GER).

Additionally, the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup has already become a “KEY RACE”, indicated by two or more horses having come back to win since that race. Winner Factor This almost won the Grade 1 Turf Classic last weekend at Churchill, which is not the reason the race is a key race but indicates how productive the race was. The fourth place finisher, Ry's the Guy, won strongly last weekend at Churchill Downs and both the eighth and 11th place finishers have since won. The horse Hierarchy beat for second has not run back yet but with the winner and fourth place finishers having run very well, I think Hierarchy can do the same and win. Jockey Corey Lanerie was up for both recent big efforts and rides back and that's another positive sign. Additionally, Hierarchy put in a strong four furlong (47.8) workout in preparation for this race so he's fit and ready to run big. Last but not least, Hierarchy was entered to run in the $300,000 Tapit Stakes on Wednesday and his trainer (Joe Sharp) opted for this race instead, likely figuring with the horse in top form he could run well enough to win.

Zulu Alpha won the 2019 Turf Cup over Arklow by three lengths but didn't run as well subsequently in the Turf Classic or Breeders' Cup Turf. Rested three months, Zulu Alpha began his seven year old campaign with a strong win in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, earning a career-best 119  figure in the process. After duplicating that figure and effort in the Mac Diarmida Stakes in February, Zulu Alpha lost a heartbreaker in the Pan American Stakes by a neck after battling for the lead the entire last eighth of a mile. Rested three and one-half months, Zulu Alpha returned in the Elkhorn Stakes this past July and won more decisively than the three-quarter length margin of victory makes it appear. However, his figure did regress to 105 after 110 in the Pan American. Freshened two months again and proven capable of winning big races off this kind of layoff, Zulu Alpha is certainly the one to beat on paper and as a horse who shows up every time I think he has every right to win.

Postulation, Red Knight and Grand Journey are three more with a decent chance to compete at least for the minor awards, and it's not out of the question one of them could post the upset if everything goes their way. Postulation has run 11 times at marathon distances in his career, winning twice and finishing second three times. The most recent of those efforts came when leading from the start in the Elkhorn Stakes before being passed late by Zulu Alpha and finishing three-quarters of a length behind in second. That effort earned a 105 figure, and in 2018 at the distance in the Point of Entry Stakes Postulation earned a 112 figure so a top effort puts him right there with the main contenders. Red Knight won the 2019 Point of Entry Stakes with a 108 figure and was second, beaten a half-length, in the 2019 Elkhorn so fits at this level and distance. Not seen since finishing fourth of 11 in the McKnight Stakes in January, Red Knight also won the two mile H. Allen Jerkens Stakes in 2018 so he's a true “stayer” who must be respected as a contender.

Then there's Grand Journey, who will likely be one of the longshots in the field. He started out his career in claiming races but won three straight last spring and summer on the grass, the best of those earning a 107 figure. In his third race of the year this past June, Grand Journey won at the distance of one mile and one-sixteenth on turf and earned a 105 figure. Trainer Mike Maker claimed the horse from that race then put him in a stakes race on July 8. Although fourth in that race, Grand Journey was beaten a nose and a head for second and tied his previous best 107 figure. Maker, who also saddles Zulu Alpha, has a knack for finding horses he can turn into successful turf stakes runners and I have a suspicion Grand Journey may be one of those and can run better than his high odds suggest he can. North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. sees fit to ride and that's significant. Also of significance is the fact that Grand Journey is by Giant's Causeway, who has produced a number of top turf runners including 2019 Horse of the Year Bricks and Mortar. For those reasons I plan to at least make a win and place bet on Grand Journey at likely very high odds.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is American Tattoo (ARG), Arklow, Bundibunan, Celerity, Changi, Eons, Grand Journey, Perfect Tapatino (FR), Standard Deviation, Surprise Twist and Tintoretto (GER).

Main Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Hierarchy
Zulu Alpha

Secondary win contenders and in-the-money contenders:
Postulation
Red Knight
Grand Journey

Calumet Farm Kentucky Turf Cup Stakes – Grade 3
Race 10 at Kentucky Downs
Saturday, September 12 – Post Time 6:04 PM E.T.
One Mile and One-Half on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

The post Equibase Analysis: Hierarchy Could Best Zulu Alpha In Kentucky Turf Cup appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Each stakes on the Calumet Farm Day program is worth at least $500,000, with the four Grade 3 stakes highlighted by the $1 million Calumet Farm Kentucky Turf Cup at 1 1/2 miles. The other graded stakes are the $700,000 RUNHAPPY Turf Sprint at six furlongs, whose winner will receive a fees-paid spot in the $1 million Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint Nov. 7 at Keeneland as part of the Breeders' Cup Challenge Series' “Win and You're In” program, along with the $500,000 English Channel Ladies Turf at a mile, the $500,000 Real Solution Ladies Sprint at 6 1/2 furlongs and the $500,000 Bal a Bali Juvenile Turf Sprint at 6 1/2 furlongs.

The Kentucky Turf Cup is headed by Michael Hui's 2019 winner Zulu Alpha and Donegal Racing's 2018 winner Arklow. Both became Grade 1 winners after their 1-2 finish a year ago at Kentucky Downs, with Arklow winning Belmont Park's Joe Hirsch Turf Classic in his next start and Zulu Alpha taking Gulfstream Park's $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf in January.

Zulu Alpha will try to join Rochester and Da Big Hoss as the only repeat winners in Kentucky Turf Cup history, which dates to the first year the track opened in 1990.

Said Hui: “I spoke with Mike, obviously about Zulu, because I always ask about him first. He says he's never been better and expects him to have his usual performance where he always shows up. He loves Kentucky Downs. As far as the post (10), I'm glad he drew outside rather than the inside, and he'll get a good look at Arklow (post 5) in his new blinkers.”

Here's a closer look on the Calumet Farm Day Stakes:

$500,000, Grade 3 English Channel Ladies Turf at a mile (7th race, 3:27 p.m. Central): Chad Brown, the future Hall of Famer who is a presence at this meet for the first time, already has one stakes win with Flavius in Monday's $750,000 Tourist Mile. Now he's got 9-5 favorite Regal Glory in this race for fillies and mares. Regal Glory is a multiple graded-stakes winner, taking last year's Grade 2 Lake Placid and Grade 3 Lake George at Saratoga, along with two other stakes at age 3. In two starts this year she was second to her talented stablemate Newspaperofrecord in Belmont's Grade 3 Intercontinental and fourth to her in the Grade 1 Just a Game. Brown also entered 5-1 Tapit Today, who finished most recently was a good fourth in Monmouth Park's Grade 3 Matchmaker.

Secret Message won Churchill Downs' Grade 3 Mint Julep for trainer Graham Motion, whose horses always must be respected. A Grade 2 winner in Woodbine's Nassau Stakes last year, Secret Message was a decent sixth in Keeneland's very tough edition of the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley, then a good third in Saratoga's Perfect Sting.

English Affair earned a free spot in this race by virtue of taking Ellis Park's Kentucky Downs Ladies Preview at 14-1 odds over soft turf. English Affair was to be cross-entered in Sunday's $500,000 TVG Stakes (formerly the Ladies Marathon). Trainer Rusty Arnold last year won two stakes, including the RUNHAPPY Turf Sprint with Totally Boss, who is back this year.

Lady Apple certainly has the back class but has been off form this year in four races since taking the Grade 3 Houston Ladies Classic. If the surface change does the trick, she could be formidable at a price. Trained by Steve Asmussen, Lady Apple is a multiple graded-stakes winner who finished third in last year's Kentucky Oaks. She's also the only millionaire in the field of 12, with one also-eligible.

Mitchell Road is out of the same mare as 2019 adjudged Kentucky Derby winner Country House. She got back in the win column in taking the Ellis Park Turf but struggled over soft turf in the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Turf. The firm turf should suit her much better.

Ask Bailey is 20-1 in the morning line and could provide value in the exotic wagers as she figures to come flying late. The Mike Maker-trained Ask Bailey was second in last year's 2-year-old filly stakes at a mile.

Here is the field in post position order with jockey/trainer and morning-line odds: Mitchell Road (Luis Saez/Bill Mott 8-1), Princess Causeway (Chris Landeros/Ian Wilkes 15-1), Tapit Today (Javier Castellano/Chad Brown 5-1), English Affair (Rafael Bejarano/Rusty Arnold 6-1), Frond (Gerardo Corrales/Ben Colebrook 20-1), Regal Glory (Jose Ortiz/Chad Brown 9-5), Lady Apple (Ricardo Santana/Steve Asmussen 6-1), Secret Message (John Velazquez/Graham Motion 4-1).

$500,000, G3 Real Solution Ladies Sprint at 6 1/2 furlongs (8th race 3:59 p.m. Central): The Ladies Sprint provides a scintillating showdown among Got Stormy, the 2-1 favorite in the overflow field of 15, and Into Mystic and Kimari. The Mark Casse-trained Got Stormy has consistently been tough competing against males in Grade 1 races, including winning last year's Fourstardave at Saratoga and finishing second in her title defense this year, along with a second in last year's Breeders' Cup Mile. Now she'll sprint for the first time in her glorious career that has seen her earn $1.6 million to date. Kimari, trained by Wesley Ward, has only been beaten once in the United States, and that was when a good fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Santa Anita. Whether intended as a prep or not, Ward has effectively used England's Royal Ascot meet, where Kimari was second for the second time in a prestigious race this year, as a stepping stone to Kentucky Downs victory. Into Mystic was sent to trainer Brendan Walsh in Kentucky with the Kentucky Downs Preview Ladies Sprint (check off win) and this stakes in mind. She's a very fast horse who in May was a good fourth in Santa Anita's Grade 2 Monrovia, whose 1-2 finishers were the talented Jolie Olimpica and Oleksandra. That effort came after she won a 3 1/2-furlong allowance race in a mixed-breed race against quarter horses on dirt at Los Alamitos.

The rest of the field isn't shabby, including Intuicao making her first U.S. start after racing in Brazil, and stakes-winners Cariba, Mentality, I'llhandalthecash, Winning Envelope, Quebec and Jakarta. (A note on Jolie Olimpica: She was to run in this race but spiked a temperature before she was scheduled to fly out from California.)

Here is the field in post position order with jockey/trainer and morning-line odds: Intuicao (Florent Geroux, Paulo Lobo 20-1), I'llhandalthecash (Jose Ortiz/Raymond Handal 20-1), Winning Envelope (Julien Leparoux/Chris Block 20-1), Quebec (Adam Beschizza/Joe Sharp 30-1), Change of Control (Colby Hernandez/Michelle Lovell 15-1), Mentality (Gerardo Corrales/Wesley Ward 15-1), Cariba (Irad Ortiz/Christophe Clement 8-1), Got Stormy (Tyler Gaffalione/Mark Casse 2-1), Into Mystic (Joe Talamo/Brendan Walsh 6-1), Jakarta (Luis Saez/Mike Maker 10-1), Kimari (Julio Garcia/Wesley Ward 4-1), Surrender Now (Ricardo Santana/Steve Asmussen 15-1). Also eligible: Dixieincandyland (Javier Castellano/Eddie Kenneally 30-1), Lady Lawyer (Joel Rosario/Chad Brown) 15-1, Bohemian Bourbon (Julien Leparoux/Ian Wilkes 20-1)

$500,000 Bal a Bali Juvenile Turf Sprint at 6 1/2 furlongs (ninth race, 4:32 p.m. Central): A good way to bet is trainer Wesley Ward, who won the first two runnings of this stakes with fillies. With 2-year-old fillies now having their stakes on Sunday, Ward has only colts in this spot this year but they are the two favorites in Saratoga turf debut winner Outadore (2-1) and Fauci (5-2), who won a Keeneland maiden race on turf and was second in Saratoga's Skidmore on grass.

Another interesting horse is 9-2 third choice County Final, who won his debut on grass at Churchill Downs then was second in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor on dirt. Transferred to Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, County Final romped in Monmouth Park's off-the-turf Tyro Stakes. Asmussen also entered Cowan, who will try turf for the first time.

Trainer Valerie Lund brings Bodenheimer in from Minnesota, where he won his first start on turf by 11 1/4 lengths and then took Iowa's Prairie Gold Juvenile on dirt by a neck.

Here is the field in post position order with jockey/trainer and morning-line odds: Baytown Bear (Jack Gilligan/Paul McEntee 50-1), Perfect Mistake (Jack Gilligan, Paul McEntee 50-1), Perfect Mistake (Rafael Bejarano/John Ortiz 20-1), Petit Verdot (Joe Talamo/John Ennis 15-1), County Five (Jose Ortiz/Steve Asmussen 9-2), Boss Bear (Luis Saez/Mike Maker 20-1), Bodenheimer (Brian Hernandez/Valorie Lund 6-1), Scorsese (Tyler Baze/James Chapman 50-1), Cowan (Ricardo Santana/Steve Asmussen 8-1), Outadore (Irad Ortiz/Wesley Ward 2-1), Fauci (Tyler Gaffalione/Wesley Ward 5-2).

Grade 3, $1 million Calumet Farm Kentucky Turf Cup at 1 1/2 miles (10th race, post time 5:04 p.m. Central): Zulu Alpha, a very good fourth in last year's Breeders' Cup Turf, has made a claim as being America's best distance turf horse after winning the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf and tacking on Grade 2 victories in Gulfstream Park's Mac Diarmida and Keeneland's Elkhorn. His only defeat in four starts was by a neck to stablemate Bemma's Boy in Gulfstream's Pan American (G2).

Arklow is trying to regain his 2019 form, and trainer Brad Cox has been pleased how the 6-year-old horse has responded in training to the addition of blinkers.

While Zulu Alpha and Arklow's rematch is the main story line, the supporting cast is solid in the field of 12, with four other horses needing scratches to run. Others in the race include stakes-winners Postulation, the 2017 Kentucky Turf Cup runner-up; Eons, Red Knight, He's No Lemon and stakes sponsor Calumet Farm's American Tattoo.

Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, the New York-bred 12-1 shot Red Knight is making his first start since January.

“I'm actually a little worried about Red Knight,” said Mike Maker, Zulu Alpha's trainer. “He had plenty of options up there (in New York) and they chose to come down here. You have to respect that. Look at the horses he's been running with.”

Maker also is running Grand Journey, who has been training with Zulu Alpha. “I said that as good as he's working, there are not very many options for him so take a shot.”

Here's the field in post-position order with jockey, trainer and morning-line odds): Changi (Tyler Baze/Jeanne Dolan 50-1), Red Knight (Luis Saez, Bill Mott 12-1), Grand Journey (Irad Ortiz/Mike Maker 15-1), Eons (Flavien Prat/Arnaud Delacour 20-1), Arklow (Florent Geroux/Brad Cox 9-2), Postulation (Julien Leparoux/Michael Matz 8-1), He's No Lemon (Javier Castellano, Graham Motion 10-1), Bundibunan (James Graham/Ignacio Correas 30-1), American Tattoo (Adam Beschizza/Jack Sisterson 30-1), Zulu Alpha (Tyler Gaffalione/Mike Maker 7-5), Standard Deviation (John Velazquez/Graham Motion 12-1), Hierarchy (Corey Lanerie/Joe Sharp 12-1). Also eligible: Celerity (Gabriel Saez/Waylon Cundiff 50-1), Tintoretto (Joe Talamo/Michael McCarthy 30-1), Perfect Tapatino (Adam Beschizza/Roger Attfield 50-1), Surprise Twist (Joel Rosario/Arnaud Delacour 50-1).

Grade 3, $700,000 RUNHAPPY Turf Sprint at six furlongs (race 11, 5:36 p.m. Central): This is a fantastic betting race with 2019 winner Totally Boss a hefty 9-2 favorite over a trio of 5-1 choices in the intriguing Front Run the Fed, multiple graded-stakes winner Kanthaka and last year's Tourist Mile winner Bound for Nowhere.

Totally Boss has raced only twice this year, most recently rallying strongly only to lose Keeneland's Grade 2 Shakertown by a head to his Rusty Arnold-trained stablemate Leinster. Totally Boss could join Hold the Salt (2008-2009) as the only repeat winner of the stakes.

Bound for Nowhere scratched out of last Saturday's $250,000 turf sprint at Churchill Downs to run for the bigger purse. He also has run twice this year, a pair of narrow losses that included third by a total of a neck in the Shakertown. Front Run the Fed, coming in off a Belmont Park allowance race, will be flying late as he seeks to win for the fifth time in his last seven starts. Kanthaka, who was briefly on the Kentucky Derby trail in 2018 while based in California, has raced just once this year, finishing second by a head to the classy mare Oleksandra in Belmont's Grade 1 Jaipur in his first start for trainer Graham Motion.

Stubbins was second in last year's Grade 3 Franklin-Simpson at Kentucky Downs behind his Doug O'Neill-trained stablemate Legends of War then beat older horses in Keeneland's Grade 2 Woodford and finished a fast-flying fourth in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.
Imprimis, fourth in last year's RUNHAPPY Turf Sprint, has raced only once this year, finishing first in Saratoga's Troy Stakes only to be disqualified to third.

Archidust is 2 for 2, in a pair of small stakes at Monmouth Park, since being sent to trainer Steve Asmussen. He was fourth in last year's Grade 3 Franklin-Simpson in his only prior turf start.

American Anthem makes his first start for trainer Mike Maker and first start on turf. The 6-year-old horse was a two-time Grade 2 winner on dirt when trained by Bob Baffert and most recently was third in New York's Grade 1 Carter for trainer Danny Gargan.

Chicago shipper Richiesinthehouse boasts 14 wins out of 21 starts, including going 12 for 16 on synthetic surfaces.

Here is the field in post position order with jockey/trainer and morning-line odds: Renaissance Frolic (James Graham/Saffie Joseph 50-1), Stubbins (Joel Rosario/Doug O'Neill 6-1), Front Run the Fed (Javier Castellano/Chad Brown 5-1), Totally Boss (Florent Geroux/Rusty Arnold 9-2), Bombard (Flavien Prat/Richard Mandella 20-1), Kanthaka (Jose Ortiz/Graham Motion 5-1), American Anthem (Tyler Gaffalione/Mike Maker 12-1), Bon Raison (Adam Beschizza/Jack Sisterson 30-1), Imprimis (Irad Ortiz/Joe Orseno 8-1), Richiesinthehouse (Brian Hernandez/Larry Rivelli 15-1), Archidust (Ricardo Santana/Steve Asmussen 12-1), Bound for Nowhere (Julio Garcia/Wesley Ward 5-1). Also eligible: Tiger Blood (Tyler Gaffalione/Mike Maker 20-1), Fast Boat (Adam Beschizza/Joe Sharp 15-1), Hollis (Gabriel Saez/John Ortiz 30-1), Admiral Lynch (Luis Saez/Mike Maker 15-1) .

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His next start will be defense of his 2019 victory in the Kentucky Turf Cup at Kentucky Downs, followed by the Breeders' Cup Turf on Nov. 7 at Keeneland, a race in which Zulu Alpha finished fourth last year at Santa Anita.

“He's had his vacation and Mike's handled him phenomenally as far as his development and progression,” said owner Michael Hui. “This was the first step back, and he passed.”

“You were about two inches from a Grade 1,” Hui said. “That was a tremendous high watching Parlor take the lead in the stretch…. It was like 'no, no, no!' And Parlor got the perfect bob and still didn't get it. But that bodes well for Kentucky Downs, because his next start will be the Tourist Mile.”

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