The odds they have overcome, to get here, are such that the long-term health of the breed is clearly being treated as something our grandchildren can worry about instead. Yes, action is now being taken by the industry, notably on book sizes and medication. But the onus for change is not so much on regulators as on those directing investment. So long as the bloodstock agents (and racing managers and all the rest) keep funneling the budget into untested stallions, then farms can't be blamed for industrial exploitation of flimsy rookies perceived as “commercial” before discarding them to overseas or regional programs. And nor can breeders and pinhookers be blamed for supporting them.

The standard defense, of course, is that you have no choice but to try new stallions unless you can afford the proven operators in the six-figure elite. If that were truly so, however, why don't they support stallions in their third, fourth and fifth years? Why don't they tell their patrons that the time to get real value is when they're cooling off: you could get to Into Mischief for just $7,500 after he had sold his first yearlings, remember, and Tapit for $12,500.

We all know why. It's because professional advisers are too nervous of having their judgement exposed. They daren't risk telling their patrons that now is the time to roll with a slower-burning stallion, in case his first couple of crops go so quietly that he's dispatched to Turkey or Pennsylvania. And of course that becomes self-fulfilling.

Instead they behave as though the sieves of quality and value, between pedigree and conformation and all the rest of it, suddenly cease functioning once a stallion is about to launch his stock. That way they can say: “Don't blame me that this stallion didn't work out. You saw how hot his yearlings were. All the other experts agreed.”

Sky Mesa's lifetime percentages remain tremendous for this level | EquiSport Photos

On that basis, we've already explored some of the best value in the marketplace. But today we're going to browse some of those who, often by combining merit with timely fortune, have come out the other side of this winnowing process. They set a standard that will be met by very few of the new stallions annually flooding the market. As such, in fact, they provide what should (in a sane industry) be the most commercial service of all–by offering tangible, legible prospects of decorating your mare with a stakes winner or two.

The nature of this particular beast means we'll be revisiting some who have featured in years past. One or two have meanwhile faded, naturally; one or two have elevated themselves beyond the reach of “value.” But consistency is what keeps the rest in our esteem, and we'll repay them in kind.

As a general principle, older stallions are a good place to start. I realize that many people are convinced that these greybeards lose their potency, but I suspect this to be one of those self-fulfilling prejudices; not least because ageing achievers often face competition from more affordable sons. There are simply too many top-class runners (and stallions) from the last books of their sires to be dismissed merely as exceptions that prove the rule. And it's certainly splendid to see Speightstown, with four individual Grade I winners in 2020, earn a fee hike from $70,000 to $90,000 at the age of 23!

As ever, anyone in this business who proposes an inviolable “rule” on the basis of a software program should be treated with suspicion; but they do kindly enable some stallions of proven, elite caliber to slip into reach, especially at a time when many farms are cutting fees across the roster.

Malibu Moon | Spendthrift

For instance, do we really think Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy–Macoumba, by Mr. Prospector) a bust, now that he's down to $35,000? This sire of 17 Grade I winners–a tally exceeded among active rivals only by Tapit ($185,000), War Front ($150,000), Medaglia d'Oro ($150,000) and Speightstown himself, who's a year his junior–admittedly had a relatively quiet 2020 on the track, with just a couple of graded stakes winners. But his yearlings were still turning over a six-figure average in a squeezed market, and he's long established the efficacy of his aristocratic genes in producing dirt horses ideally adapted to the demands of Classic racing.

Unlike a lot of veteran sires, moreover, Malibu Moon is not going to run dry of material to keep his name in lights: he has been covering triple-digit books like clockwork, and his imminent juveniles crop comprised 103 live foals. And they're all out of mares deemed worthy of a $75,000 cover. What a terrific price he is now, to prove a young mare!

If you're a breeder, moreover, you'd be willing to retain one of his daughters in the hope of her someday producing another Stellar Wind (Curlin), Girvin (Tale of Ekati) or Bellafina (Quality Road). In that capacity, mind you, we're reluctant to look past another by the same breed-shaping sire.

Bernardini | Darley

For Bernardini (A.P. Indy–Cara Rafaela, by Quiet American) is also down to $35,000 at Darley. That's a milder trim, from $40,000, and presumably prompted primarily by a troubled market environment–but it's also a fourth cut in four years. He was still at six figures as recently as 2017, and as high as $150,000 in his pomp. Having only just turned 18, however, he remains ahead of a genuinely historic curve as a broodmare sire: his daughters have produced more Grade I, graded stakes and black-type winners than any stallion in history, at this stage.

Yet his headline act in 2020 was a colt, Art Collector, who beat Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) comprehensively in the GII Toyota Blue Grass S. during a spree that qualified him as one of the best sophomores around. He tapered off somewhat, and Micheline's narrow defeat in the GI Queen Elizabeth II Cup meant that their sire could not add to his 10 domestic Grade I winners (plus three in Australia/one apiece in Italy and Dubai).

Nonetheless, Bernardini has confirmed himself still perfectly capable of producing on the track, doubtless with more to follow given that he's routinely covering books in the 130s. And then there's the extraordinary precocity of his damsire credits, which can be shared between both sides of his pedigree: A.P. Indy's established a formidable distaff influence both through his own daughters and now those of his sons, unsurprising given the Secretariat–Buckpasser combination behind his own dam; while damsire Quiet American is a unique genetic dynamo.

Physically, of course, Bernardini is himself so beautiful a specimen that you're tempted to use adjectives typically reserved for femininity. And if commercial nerves about his recent performance reached his yearlings in the COVID market, then it shouldn't be forgotten that he has always been a lucrative performer in a sales environment that prizes deeds even above those looks: his 2-year-olds last year averaged $176,265, and only Storm Cat beats his 25 lifetime juveniles at $500,000-plus. Bottom line is that any breeder inclined to retain a filly will not get better value than Bernardini, perhaps anywhere in the world.

Hard Spun | Darley

Mind you, end-users simply looking for a runner won't even have to leave Jonabell for a fine alternative at the same peg in Hard Spun (Danzig–Turkish Tryst, by Turkoman). His own excellence on the track, of course, reinforces our earlier defense of senior stallions (conceived when Danzig was 26) and Hard Spun continues to punch way above weight at $35,000, charitably clipped from $40,000 despite following up his stellar 2019 (three Grade I winners, all from his first crop since returning from that unhelpful sojourn in Japan) with another top 10 finish in the general sires' table.

This sire of 10 Grade I winners has assembled his 129 lifetime black-type performers at 11.5%–a tick behind Uncle Mo, for instance, who has advanced his fee to $175,000 with eight Grade I winners and 12% stakes performers. And Hard Spun has an exciting sophomore in Smarty Jones S. winner Caddo River, as high as No. 2 in colleague T.D. Thornton's Derby Top 12.

Despite the quirky damsire, it's all good stuff along that Darby Dan bottom line, with a half-sister to Little Current as close up as second dam; while Hard Spun's half-sister has refreshed the family page in more recent times as second dam of Improbable (City Zip). Above all, Hard Spun throws us as short a lifeline as we have, and at a fraction of the cost of War Front, to their breed-shaping sire.

Moreover he is parlaying his genes into such diverse disciplines and environments that he really should be much higher on the list for European breeders, as well. (Good to see one daughter, pinhooked as a $70,000 Keeneland September RNA, making 375,000gns at the Tattersalls Breeze-Ups last summer; she duly won her only start.)

Blame | Claiborne

Another whose fee trim for 2021 ($30,000 from $35,000) must be accounted simply a friendly gesture to a difficult trading environment is Blame (Arch–Liable, by Seeking the Gold). Because the Claiborne stallion has long passed the stage when he needs that kind of help. In fact, he has become a tribute to exemplary management, rebuilding in pretty spectacular fashion from a point where he did appear to be in a spot of trouble.

That was in 2018, when his fee was halved to $12,500. At that stage, he had made a similarly quiet start to that once made by his own sire on the same farm, and was down to just 48 mares the previous year–albeit he promptly had a breakthrough Classic success in Europe. Since then, he has left no doubt that he is successfully replicating the elite genetic wares that underpinned nine consecutive triple-digit Beyers and a historic distinction as the only horse ever to beat Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}).

Though unlucky to have soon lost the services of his fifth elite winner, Nadal, Blame had nine other graded stakes performers in 2020. Actually, Blame's overall output, after eight crops, is now strikingly similar to that of Quality Road, who started at the same time and smoothly elevated himself to $150,000 thanks to 11 Grade I winners at a ratio surpassing nearly all comers. For Blame can otherwise nearly match him for the across-the-board consistency: by stakes winners, Quality Road's 6.5% plays 6% for Blame (black-type performers (12.5 and 12.2%); they respectively stand at 3.7 and 3.3% for graded stakes winners, and 6.2 and 6.4% for graded stakes horses; while their overall Grade I performers measure up at 2.5 and 2.3%.

Again, this comparison is only intended to magnify Blame and not belittle a top-class alternative, and it must be said that their latest yearling averages (as so often tends to be the case) dutifully reflect the difference in fees. True, even a $57,884 average for Blame looked after their $12,500 conception fee very nicely–and that, in itself, is a reminder that Blame's revival since should be sustained, in terms of racetrack headlines, by the improved quality and size (now routinely in three figures) of his books.

Having just turned 15, Blame is entering his prime. So forget Quality Road for a minute. As a percentage of named foals, despite that sticky start, Blame now measures up to Into Mischief for Grade I winners; Ghostzapper for Grade I horses; More Than Ready for graded stakes winners; Kitten's Joy for graded stakes horses; Uncle Mo for stakes horses; and Candy Ride (Arg) for stakes winners. Oh yes, and he just had his fee cut. That either shows you prove anything with statistics, or that he deserves gold on our final “value podium.” (See below…)

None of this is hard to explain: Blame has a for-the-ages pedigree, with fourth dam Thong standing opposite Courtly Dee in Arch's maternal line. That's like a time capsule for everything we need to retain in the breed. Sure enough, he's obviously another who would make any breeder glad to retain a filly.

English Channel | Sarah Andrew

We don't need too much detail on the eligibility of English Channel (Smart Strike–Belva, by Theatrical {Ire}) for this list, having so recently celebrated his breakthrough turf championship (by domestic and/or Northern Hemisphere earnings). We remarked then that if Kitten's Joy has been crazily undervalued by European prospectors, we should be outright scandalized by neglect of a stallion whose lifetime percentages either match or (mostly) surpass that acknowledged turf Titan, right across the board.

We know that the commercial market has an infantile terror of grass, but the combined class and durability of stallions like these are precisely what the breed overall requires most urgently. These days Calumet may sing from a rather different hymnsheet from most commercial horsemen, but at $27,500 (down from $35,000) English Channel is an imperative option for end users–most obviously, if by no means exclusively, those eager to exploit the expanding turf program.

Lookin At Lucky | Coolmore

For a long time, we were able to bracket another by the same stallion, Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike–Private Feeling, by Belong to Me) with his Ashford buddy Munnings (Speightstown) as a pair who together represented great value at a similar level. The Munnings train has meanwhile left town: nobody ever needed telling about him, to be honest, because everyone already seemed to know. His books have been soaring, in quality and quantity, and now the dividends are there for Kentucky's No. 7 stallion by earnings in 2020, with six graded stakes winners.

But poor old Lookin At Lucky remains grievously underrated, whatever he does. He's still stranded at $20,000, a fee now doubled by Munnings, and received 113 mares last spring compared with 207 for his uber-fashionable rival. And, cursed by a self-fulfilling reputation (“not a sales sire”), his yearlings averaged $33,777 even as Munnings swaggered his way up to $80,932.

But Lookin At Lucky's record is so much better than many a “sales sire” that he points an accusing finger at the whole business. Just what are these guys looking for? A racehorse, or a pretty model for art students? His cumulative achievements, even now, keep him on a par with Munnings himself. Okay, so he is outpunched on stakes winners (6.7 versus 4.7% of named foals), but other indices keep the ugly duckling right alongside the swan. Lookin At Lucky gets black-type horses at 10.3 against 10.7%; graded stakes winners at 2.5 against 2.6%; graded stakes performers at 4.9 against 4.4%; Grade I horses at 2.2 against 1.2%.

And while Munnings still has just two elite scorers from 685 named foals, Lookin At Lucky (553) has come up with winners of the Breeders' Cup Classic, the Kentucky Derby and a Beldame winner who then ran Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) to a length in the Breeders' Cup Distaff. When he connects, Lucky hits as hard as anyone. Those who quibble over the promotion of Country House, incidentally, should remind themselves that he was not the only son of Lookin At Lucky to have passed the post second in the one race everyone claims to have in mind when they go to Keeneland in September.

It's nuts, really. Here's a stallion who has repeatedly produced elite two-turn horses, from mares on a $20,000 covering budget, and still a lot of agents put an automatic line through his yearlings. But that's fine. See you guys in the winner's circle. Because Lookin At Lucky doesn't have to get mad. He can just get even.

The Factor | Lee Thomas

The Factor (War Front–Greyciousness, by Miswaki) had another productive campaign in 2020, just cents off the top 10 among living Kentucky stallions, but Lane's End held him at $17,500. That's doubtless because this last yearling cycle was the one he missed through his season in Japan, so he'll be quieter on the track this time round, but patience will bring its rewards: his book last spring rocketed to 150, from 80 in his comeback year.

In fact, patience has been the key throughout. The Factor lost early momentum when his first crop, conspicuously well received at the sales, turned out not to be the sharp and early types everyone had anticipated. But they proved worth the wait, and The Factor's cumulative percentages now stack up very closely with those of his flourishing studmate Twirling Candy, who deservedly commands a fee of $40,000. The Factor is surely just refueling at this kind of fee, and can be expected to motor upwards once back on the highway.

Midnight Lute | Sarah Andrew

A half-sister to The Factor wrote an important new chapter for Midnight Lute (Real Quiet–Candytuft, by Dehere) in 2020 when her daughter Keeper Ofthe Stars became the Hill 'n' Dale stallion's fourth Grade I winner. It was a good campaign all round for Midnight Lute, with three others adding elite podiums to Grade II success. That's especially important for one who has produced such an extravagant talent in Midnight Bisou that people don't always recognize his breadth of achievement. As a turf miler, moreover, Keeper Ofthe Stars reiterated the versatility of a horse who was celebrated on the track as very fast, and very tall, but who very adaptably recycles a ton of Classic genes and all-round physical quality.

Another old pal is Sky Mesa (Pulpit–Caress, by Storm Cat). Good to see that he welcomed a three-figure book to Three Chimneys last year, up from 59 in 2019. Admittedly he had a quiet campaign, with just three stakes winners, but his page has been freshened up by Maxfield (Street Sense), who is out of a half-sister, and he gets a helpful trim to $12,500 (from $15,000). His lifetime percentages remain tremendous, for this level: black-type winners/horses to named foals at 6.5 and 12.7% respectively, which is as much as can be said even for stallions as accomplished as, for instance, Candy Ride (Arg), Street Sense or Flatter.

Midshipman | Darley

Midshipman (Unbridled's Song–Fleet Lady, by Avenue of Flags) meanwhile continued his metronomic service at Darley, another eight stakes winners in 2020 maintaining his unbelievable consistency for one operating at this end of the market: he, too, has lifetime stakes performers at 12% of named foals. To ease him a little to just $7,500, when routinely covering three-figure books, is really looking after the working breeder at a difficult time. I really look forward to the day when Midshipman gets the domestic Grade I success that is surely, given his achievements with such limited mares, well within his competence.

Mind you, Mizzen Mast (Cozzene–Kinema, by Graustark) has had eight of those! Here's another big firm looking after the little guy, with Juddmonte standing this venerable creature at the same bargain fee. He's a versatile influence in everything with the class that has united achievers in every theatre–short and long, turf and dirt–and he's now of an age where his daughters can show the same merit, most recently through Ete Indien (Summer Front), Nashville (Speightstown) and Classic-placed European filly Quadrilateral (GB) (Frankel {GB}).

So having started with a veteran, we finish with one, too. Because for a fee you could carry into the farm office in a cigar box, you can still tap into a grandson of Caro (Ire), with first two dams by Graustark and Tom Fool. Show me something like that in the freshman's table, and you get my attention.

CHRIS McGRATH'S VALUE PODIUM
Gold: Blame ($30,000, Claiborne)
   Now nearing elite status by any measure but price.
Silver: Lookin At Lucky ($20,000, Coolmore)
   Seems that nobody is ever Lookin' hard enough.
Bronze: Mizzen Mast ($7,500, Juddmonte)
   Hurry for those genes while they last!

The post Kentucky Sires for 2021: Established Stallions appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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We noted in the previous instalment that a third crop of juveniles, alongside a first crop of 4-year-olds, typically represents a final chance. Sure enough, compared with 18 Bluegrass stallions approaching that crossroads, we find just six left to review today from the preceding intake.

But whatever sympathy we feel for those meanwhile driven into regional or overseas programs, the nature of the business today means that they have actually delivered as legible and legitimate a sample of their work as we are ever going to get. So many stallions nowadays cover 500 mares across their first three seasons, only to find themselves reduced to a dozen or two within a couple of years. If anything, then, their embarrassment now should prompt us to revisit the vogue they enjoyed when first going to market–and perhaps the contrast might even make us hesitate before rushing to the next lot of rookies off the carousel.

In this group, however, there are a couple who have done something beyond almost all young stallions and created a sustainable niche in the market. Having made a brisk start with his first juveniles in 2018, in fact, GOLDENCENTS (Into Mischief–Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) entertained no fewer than 239 mares at Spendthrift the following spring and another 204 last year–taking him to an aggregate 1,133 through his first six years.

And he will presumably maintain the traffic, his farm having taken such a purposeful lead on fee cuts in the pandemic marketplace: for 2021 he's back down to his original fee of $15,000, from $25,000 last year.

Goldencents topped the third-crop championship in 2020 by nearly all indices, having previously been champion freshman by winners (second to studmate Cross Traffic by prize money) and then headed the second-crop table. Given his fairly industrial output, however, he is nothing like so dominant in percentage terms. It would be pushing things, certainly, to describe nine black-type winners and three graded stakes winners from 255 starters as a wildly exciting yield.

By My Standards has been a standard-bearer for Goldencents | Coady

But then Goldencents, having been one of the first to demonstrate his sire's capacity to upgrade mares, has also been in the vanguard in terms of testing whether that prowess will be recycled by his sons. He was just a $5,500 yearling, remember, out of a $7,000 mare by a stallion who ended up in Cyprus. The family did bring hardiness (next two dams respectively 18-for-45 and 13-for-46), but somehow Into Mischief ignited a spark of quality in Goldencents that burned up consecutive editions of the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. And while his sire was still available at $35,000 when Goldencents joined him at Spendthrift, his relative affordability has obviously been at a growing premium ever since.

Goldencents was blessed that his own first crop produced a couple who did much the same service, in promoting their sire, as he had himself performed for Into Mischief. In fact, By My Standards and Mr. Money remain far and away his biggest earners to date. And while neither has quite broken the Grade I ice, By My Standards certainly neared the top of the handicap division in his third season and has helped to keep his sire's names in lights all the way through.

Arguably it's about time Goldencents produced a new star, but that's precisely what he can hope to do after getting that reboot from his prolific first crop. In the meantime, admittedly, he has been treading water somewhat at the sales: while one daughter did bring $300,000, he averaged a steady $29,069 with his 2020 yearlings, for 52 sold of 68 offered.

That yield, and all the rest cited here, must of course be placed in the context of an exceptionally challenging market. Be that as it may, we will pretty soon have to cease doing what we're doing today–comparing these survivors against other stallions at the same stage of their career–and instead start measuring them against all those established operators who, having shed the commercial allure of novelty, have already chiselled a lasting foothold in the market.

Cairo Prince | Sarah Andrew

Sticking to this group, however, you couldn't ask for a more instructive foil to Goldencents than CAIRO PRINCE (Pioneerof the Nile–Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull). They have reached this point absolutely in tandem: Goldencents has 384 named foals, Cairo Prince 380; Goldencents has had 256 starters, Cairo Prince 249; Goldencents has 158 winners, Cairo Prince 156; they both, moreover, have 26 black-type horses. Sure enough, they stand for the same fee. But it's the Airdrie stallion who has a slight but consistent edge at the top end: by stakes winners (13 plays nine), graded stakes winners (five plays three) and graded stakes horses (ten plays seven).

Moreover Cairo Prince is one of those rare stallions whose initial market reception was way out of line with the ranking implied by his opening fee. We've seen, throughout this series, how that seldom guarantees anything–whether for better or worse. In this case, however, it has turned out that Cairo Prince was quite rightly “found” as a $10,000 start-up.

His stock was received with such enthusiasm that he actually earned two fee hikes before he had a single runner, an extremely rare accolade. And if he, too, has now required a trim from $25,000, then the buzz he generated with his sales debut in 2017–when he achieved a staggering average yield of 15 times his fee–will only now start to tell in the improved quality of his mares.

True, commercial opportunism tends to be finite wherever it occurs in the cycle, and Cairo Prince dropped to 87 mares last spring after being basically fully subscribed to that point. But it's a confident bet that the juveniles heading to the track this year, conceived after that remarkable sales debut, will give fresh commercial kudos to the foals he breeds this time round.

In the meantime, Cairo Prince continues to impress with his sales stock, averaging $47,601 for 57 sold of 78 offered in 2020, confirming him far and away the most resilient and productive sales sire in this group. He just needs his big horse, now, but he's having an excellent winter on the track (three new stakes winners over the past month) and, nationally, only Into Mischief, Tapiture, Not This Time and American Pharoah had more juvenile winners last year. And it certainly does no harm that he now has another productive young stallion so close up, his Grade I-placed half-sister having gained new celebrity as dam of WinStar's thriving rookie Outwork (Uncle Mo).

Mucho Macho Man | EquiSport Photos

In 2020, however, the star turn in this group was MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno–Ponche de Leona, by Ponche), who inserted himself between Goldencents and Cairo Prince in the third-crop prize money table with two Grade I winners. In previous years, of course, Mucho Gusto's success in the Pegasus World Cup would have been still more lucrative. Moreover that horse was unfortunate to be sidelined after his trip to the desert and only resurfaced when fourth behind Cairo Prince's latest graded stakes winner, Kiss Today Goodbye, in the GII San Antonio S. at Christmas.

Anyhow his sire followed through with an elite success on turf, as well, Rodeo Drive S. winner Mucho Unusual having meanwhile added another two graded stakes even since Christmas. In fact, with a total 51 winners from just 77 starters in 2020, Mucho Macho Man topped the national field last year in earnings-per-foal–and, importantly, we know that his stock is just going to keep thriving. Though precocious enough to contest all three legs of the Triple Crown before his third birthday, he kept filling that great rangy frame of his to win the GI Breeders' Cup Classic at five.

These results are barely filtering through to the commercial market, as he averaged $24,883 for 21 yearling sales of 28 offered, but then he only stands for $7,500. And he goes well at the juvenile sales (Mucho Gusto made no less than $625,000!) just as we should expect of a stallion who relies on deeds not hype. He's a mad outcross but is quietly earning his stripes and hopefully people are beginning to pay attention. His third book had dwindled to just 35, but he has since welcomed 96, 86 and 77 guests to Hill 'n' Dale at Xalapa. Lot of horse for the money, in every way.

Will Take Charge | Louise Reinagel

The rival Mucho Macho Man nosed out for his greatest success was a barely less imposing creature, but now finds himself on a rather less encouraging tangent. It seems a long time, certainly, since WILL TAKE CHARGE (Unbridled's Song–Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) set out at $30,000 and duly dominated this lot in their sales debut with a $169,190 average. This time round he cashed out 37 of 41 for just $13,712, and he's down to a bargain $5,000 at Three Chimneys after being reduced to a very small book last spring.

Will Take Charge has mustered a handful of stakes winners, notably Grade I-placed sprinter Manny Wah, and maybe he will just prove a slow burner, as will sometimes happen with such a scopey horse. His was an especially fine constitution by the standards of his sire, highlighted by an 11-start sophomore campaign that started in January and ended, 26 days after his huge run at the Breeders' Cup, with success in the GI Clark H. His maternal family, meanwhile, has only become more aristocratic with the rise of Omaha Beach (War Front). Everything seemed to be in place so it would be a mystery, as well as a pity, if he can't turn things round.

Cross Traffic | Sarah Andrew

CROSS TRAFFIC (Unbridled's Song–Stop Traffic, by Cure the Blues) is by the same sire and made a stronger start in contesting the succession, helped to the freshman's title by Breeders' Cup champion Jaywalk but also topping the class by overall stakes winners/ performers.

He has not quite maintained that flying start and Spendthrift, who briefly rewarded his freshman title with a hike to $25,000, will be hoping for a reset after halving him from $15,000 to $7,500 this time round. But there are solid grounds for optimism.

For a start, Cross Traffic is no longer dining out simply on Jaywalk. Among his second crop, Ny Traffic carried his standard very valiantly–never more conspicuously than when running Authentic (Into Mischief) himself to a head in the GI Haskell, while he was previously only beaten a length by Maxfield in the GIII Matt Winn S.

And Cross Traffic can soon expect a healthy spike in the graph, with his post-freshman, 2019 book having soared to 188 mares from 60. True, he promptly sank to 59 last year, but that's how fecklessly the commercial market works nowadays. The thing to remember now is that he will have that big crop of juveniles next year, so he's another who can hope that foals conceived this spring may ride fresh headlines on the track.

True, Cross Traffic stands in need of that revival after averaging just $11,630 for the 16 yearlings of 17 sent into the pandemic market, but at least he has exactly that chance brewing. Let's not forget how naturally talented he was, nailed only on the line in the stallion-making GI Met Mile just four months after his debut (got his Grade I next time).

As noted, many stallions in this group have been sold to regional programs or exported, and we're particularly sorry that Fed Biz (great work, Highfield Farm of Alberta!) and Noble Mission (GB) weren't able to get adequate traction. One or two others, however, appear to have slipped off Kentucky rosters with zero announcements on their relocation. I know the farms in question will have applied impeccable standards in deciding their future but it would be a concern if due candour about their “failure,” after so brief an opportunity, is being viewed as too instructive of the flimsiness of the commercial model.

Real Solution | ThoroStride

The only other member of this intake apparently still operating in the Bluegrass on a commercial basis is REAL SOLUTION (Kitten's Joy–Reachforthe-heavens, by Pulpit). Actually he has reversed the standard procedure, having returned to Calumet after a couple of years in Louisiana early on. But he certainly fits the bill for this farm as a dual Grade I winner on turf, with venerable Classic influences seeding his family: his third dam is a Northern Dancer half-sister to champion Slew o' Gold (Seattle Slew) and Classic winner Coastal (Majestic Prince), as well as to the dam of Aptitude (A.P. Indy).

Real Solution covered just 27 mares last spring and his handful of yearlings couldn't work even a $5,000 fee, but he's had a $675,000 2-year-old and, bottom line, he's there to breed runners. That's just what he produced (thanks to the breeders who made his sire) in Ramsey Solution, who is five-for-nine including a $300,000 stakes at Kentucky Downs last September.

In fact, Real Solution has had 33 winners from just 44 starters overall, including three at black-type level; while $10,000 yearling and six-time winner Queens Embrace earned a Grade II placing at Saratoga last summer. That shows what can be done if your priorities are right, and Real Solution could appeal to enlightened breeders as being well named.

In the long term, after all, the breed will suffer badly if people can only afford to use fast-buck commercial sires who are expelled from the Bluegrass the moment their first yearlings leave the sales ring. With so few stallions surviving in this intake, however, we'll combine them with the preceding class for a composite “value podium” next time.

The post Kentucky Sires for 2021: Fourth-Crop Stallions appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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This lot, in contrast, will have a fourth crop of juveniles on the track by the time yearlings conceived this spring come under the hammer. As we remarked in the last installment of the series, you’d like to think that would sooner be considered an advantage. But we’ve pondered this whole situation often enough, and will spare you another sermon. For present purposes, we must simply note how candidly the commercial market admits its fickleness. All you have to do is measure the losses registered by nearly all stallions between their first and second crop of yearlings–very often, even when their first runners have excelled.

Sometimes a stallion isn’t permitted even a fleeting chance to show what his stock might do on the track. In this intake California Chrome (Lucky Pulpit) found so little sales traction with his first crop that he was exported before he had a single runner. The way he promptly collapsed in the yearling averages, from fifth with his first crop to 21st this time round, shows how artificially we glaze even so narrow a window for the making of a stallion’s reputation. A lot of the time, clearly, everything depends on enough people feeling invested in propping up an unproven brand. (Nor is it just the stallion farms themselves. We in the media are as guilty as anyone, always lavishing the oxygen of publicity on “exciting” new sires).

In this particular cycle, the decline in the value of a second crop has been steepened by the intervention of a pandemic. But we shouldn’t flatter ourselves that things are usually much different.

Even in so jittery a marketplace, it’s nuts that Not This Time should be unique in Kentucky, in this group, in having advanced the value of his second crop. There are only two explanations for this. One is that every single other stallion must be pronounced an overnight failure. The other is that first-crop yearlings are ludicrously overvalued.

Certainly it’s not hard to identify the winners and losers from these opening skirmishes. When their first crop came under the hammer, in 2019, Runhappy was second in the yearling averages and Not This Time 10th. This time round, their places were precisely transposed.

Obviously they experienced contrasting fortunes with their first runners. But we should remember that the yearling sales remain very unfocused. A lot of people crave social media buzz for sprint winners at Keeneland in April, and that may be useful at Fasig-Tipton in July. But the freshmen’s championship continues to develop through the year. With so much juvenile prize money loaded into later races, often round a second turn, it ends up being a pretty valid signpost.

In the preceding intake, for instance, American Pharoah and Constitution finished first and second as freshmen, and again with their second crop. On the other hand, their class also included Daredevil, who has made his famous leap from 17th to fourth. So there will be bargains to be found, above all in a year when cuts are being made across the roster.

Because even a yearling by champion freshman NYQUIST (Uncle Mo–Seeking Gabrielle by Forestry) was worth less in 2020 than its predecessor in 2019, his average slipping from $236,318 to $165,773 (still top of the class). Okay, so his principal earner Vequist didn’t bank her GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies earnings until after the yearling sales, but that does just show how weirdly the business functions.

Nyquist himself, of course, sealed Uncle Mo’s freshman laurels by emulating his championship success at the same meeting. At that stage–having received the customary, consecutive fee cuts as his first crop neared the track–Uncle Mo was promptly able to triple his fee to $75,000. Now, with three sons in the top four of the freshman’s table, he looks a bona fide elite stallion at $175,000.

How far will Nyquist follow in his sire’s path? Well, Darley has duly hiked him to $75,000 for 2021, albeit having in his case hitherto maintained his opening fee of $40,000. He stands on a very different farm from his sire, and there was a corresponding difference in his initial footprint. Uncle Mo had no fewer than 73 juvenile starters in his debut crop, of which 28 won. With 17 winners from 45 starters, Nyquist’s ratio was virtually identical. But what has set Uncle Mo apart is his ability to maintain percentages, in quality, along with all his quantity. He had seven black-type winners that first campaign, compared with two for Nyquist in 2020. Nonetheless Nyquist made sure of a bull’s-eye with both that managed to hit the stakes board, so matching his sire by immediately coming up with two elite winners. The other is Gretzky The Great, who won a Canadian Grade I on turf.

Now his sophomores must consolidate. On the track, Nyquist did so in the ultimate fashion by winning the GI Kentucky Derby–in contrast to his sire, who left his stamina unproven in a fitful campaign at three–albeit subsequently losing his way. The graded stakes quality around his second dam is largely in juvenile racing, but Nyquist is out a half-sister to the mother of a very durable type in GI Met Mile winner Sahara Sky (Pleasant Tap); and three other siblings managed 203 starts between them!

The shape of Nyquist’s family will appeal to anyone inclined to keep a filly, too. His first two dams are by noted broodmare sires in Forestry and Seeking The Gold, whose pedigrees are knotted together by a name to conjure with in Sequence. She is Forestry’s fourth dam, as well as the granddam of Seeking The Gold’s sire Mr. Prospector.

Nyquist is not going to lose momentum, with a fourth book in the 150s behind him, but nor can he afford to do so at his new fee. It’ll be interesting to see how he goes at the 2-year-old sales, too, as he was rather a disappointment last time round. Darley is trumpeting comparisons not just to Uncle Mo, but to Danzig and Tapit, who likewise immediately found two Grade I winners, including at the Breeders’ Cup. But let’s not get carried away. From only 13 starters in 1984, Danzig had 11 winners, nine stakes horses and three Grade I winners, including the champion juvenile colt. Two of them made in the podium in the Derby the following May, as well, so let’s just see how we go from here!

Fee hikes naturally make the value “podium” less accessible and it feels difficult to keep NOT THIS TIME (Giant’s Causeway–Miss Macy Sue by Trippi) up there after his spectacular vindication of “gold” at $12,500 a year ago. Taylor Made has hoisted him to $40,000 for 2021 after he broke the Uncle Mo-nopoly at the top of the freshmen’s table, third by prize money, but clear top by winners with no fewer than 28 from just 54 starters. Matching Uncle Mo’s tally, in fact, which we just noted required 73 starters.

As already remarked, Not This Time bucked the trend by improving the value of his stock between first and second crops: 47 yearlings sold, from 59 into the ring, achieved an average of $113,822–exceeded only by Nyquist, and up from $67,352 for his 63 sales of 90 offered in his first crop.

His flagbearer was the charismatic Princess Noor, the $1.35 million OBS April stunner sadly retired with a soft-tissue injury after a thrilling opening streak on the West Coast: a ‘TDN Rising Star’-worthy maiden, the GI Del Mar Debutante and GII Chandelier.

Not This Time himself was also unable to draw as a sophomore on the Classic influences pervading his pedigree, derailed after closing to a neck of champion Classic Empire (Pioneerof The Nile) in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile S. But you know that a horse with a page and physique like this could only have maintained his progress on the Triple Crown trail. Indeed, he must be as precocious a juvenile as served his great sire.

A brief lull in traffic should be lucrative for those who kept the faith: 159 mares took advantage of last year’s reduction, following opening books of 145, 129 and 87. (Don’t tell me there are people out there actually reading this stuff!) The new fee puts Not This Time under a different kind of pressure, but there can’t be a young stallion out there so eligible to rise to the challenge: his Breeders’ Cup-placed dam has also, of course, given us Liam’s Map (Unbridled’s Song); while her mother, in turn, owed both sire and grand-dam to Dr Fager’s champion half-sister Ta Wee.

Bottom line is that it may feel tough to pay three times last year’s fee, but at least we know that Not This Time produces runners. If you pay as much or more for any of the stallions previously appraised in this series, your priority can only be the sales ring rather than the racetrack. And Not This Time now has both of those bases covered.

The shock runner-up in the freshmen’s championship, dividing Nyquist and Not This Time, was LAOBAN (Uncle Mo–Chattertown by Speightstown), who has been drafted onto the WinStar roster at $25,000 after starting his career in New York at $7,500.

His 13 winners from 36 starters included five black-type horses, notably fairytale GI Alcibiades winner Simply Ravishing and GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. winner Keepmeinmind, wh placed at the Breeders’ Cup as a maiden. That was straight out of his sire’s playbook. Laoban’s only win, after repeatedly picking up scraps in other good races, was when appearing to steal the GII Jim Dandy on the lead at 27-1.

As such, nobody could sensibly propose that Laoban hinted at elite caliber on the track and for now it all feels a little baffling. But his second dam was a very productive juvenile in Florida-bred sprints, while her sister produced hard-knocking Grade I winner I’m A Chatterbox (Munnings). And Laoban has already had an 11-length debut winner at Aqueduct (NY-breds) since the turn of the year, so maybe he’s a genuine freak. He’s been priced strictly for believers, but he’s the only New York stallion to sire a Grade I winner at the first attempt and partnership support at his new base will no doubt send his numbers rocketing.

In the meantime he has a solid enough base in the Empire State, having followed a debut book of 122 with 91, 72 and 67 mares. If he keeps going, those should yield some good paydays. His first crop had sold respectably (27 of 43 at $30,537) while no fewer than 20 of 21 yearlings were processed this time round, with the news out, at $35,656.

The third son of Uncle Mo to assist his habit of making a flying start-as runner, sire and now sire of sires–was already at WinStar. Indeed, OUTWORK (Uncle Mo–Nonna Mia by Empire Maker) had carried his sire’s standard as the first winner of his first crop, over 4.5 furlongs at Keeneland in April. That proved to be Outwork’s only juvenile start and he disappeared for good after the Derby, but only after stretching out to win the GI Wood Memorial.

That looked a porous race for the level and a better guide to his merit is the way he had made Destin (Giant’s Causeway) work for the GII Tampa Bay Derby. But his eligibility for stud was underpinned by his dam, a Grade I-placed three-parts sister to a flourishing young stallion in Cairo Prince (Pioneerof The Nile).

Sure enough, Outwork has started very well with 19 winners from 48 starters including two at stakes level. (One of these, Outadore, then ran third in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf). As such, he is a good example of the nonsensical behavior of purchasers. His first crop of yearlings averaged $84,234 (for 66 sold of a bumper 88 offering). While managing fourth in the freshmen’s table, however, he saw his second crop halved in value for a yield of $39,987, albeit for a good ratio of 41 sales from 50.

While again making allowances for its depressed condition this year, that’s a fairly dismal commentary on the infidelity of the commercial market. Auspiciously, however, the word was out sufficiently last winter for his book to soar back to 160, having opened with 168, 137 and 102, so it looks as though his true reward can be a sustainable stud career. He duly holds his fee at $15,000.

Darley hosted both the most expensive stallions in this intake. But whereas Nyquist has been hiked from $40,000 to $75,000, FROSTED (Tapit–Fast Cookie by Deputy Minister) has taken consecutive cuts from $50,000, to $40,000 last year and now to $25,000.

Doubtless that partly reflects the deep freeze in the wider economy, which in turn contributed to a relatively trying time at the sales for Frosted’s second crop. His first yearlings had certainly worked that big opening fee very efficiently, 67 sales (of 94 offered) realizing $223,365, but this time round–between the pandemic and the infantile attention span of the market–he sank to $67,371 for 52 sales (74 into the ring).

In the meantime, however, his 2-year-olds had actually sold at a parallel rate and in a far higher ratio than those of his flourishing studmate Nyquist. And that endorsement of his stock’s athleticism was followed by a perfectly respectable start on the track, fifth in the prize money table with 16 scorers from 58 starters headed by GII Golden Rod winner and ‘TDN Rising Star’ Travel Column. It was as a 4-year-old, after all, that Frosted posted his signature 123 Beyer explosion in the GI Met Mile–albeit he had come to hand early enough to win the Wood Memorial on his way to a supporting role in two legs of the Triple Crown won by American Pharoah (Pioneerof The Nile), while arguably often stretching beyond his optimal distance.

Expect his first sophomores to give Frosted new momentum. Already since the turn of the year he has had a third graded stakes player, and he has that solid genetic bedrock too: his dam is a Grade II-winning half-sister by broodmare sire icon Deputy Minister to the same farm’s under-rated sire Midshipman (Unbridled’s Song). There will be no breaks in the action, as he received 157 guests last spring after opening books of 156, 152 and 144. The bottom line is that Frosted is no less eligible to excel now than when he started, but you can get to him at half the fee.

The most conspicuous hit in this intake has been taken by RUNHAPPY (Super Saver–Bella Jolie by Broken Vow), down to $10,000 from $25,000 at Claiborne. His has been a bewildering tale, to this point. He made a sensational sales debut, finding a new home for as many as 59 of the 68 yearlings into the ring from his first crop at a fantastic yield of $227,000. He also had a $475,000 2-year-old in a tricky market at OBS March. But then things went uncomfortably quiet.

He did eventually muster nine juvenile winners from 40 starters, albeit without a single stakes placing. The vendors of 66 members of Runhappy’s second crop, who must have been congratulating themselves on their foresight last winter, were duly dismayed to sell 45 at just $35,760.

Hardly what was bargained for, given that Runhappy’s forte was pure speed–as measured by a stakes record in the GI King’s Bishop and a track record in the GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Admittedly there is limited depth to his family, but maybe patience will be rewarded. Though Runhappy was an eight-length debut winner at two, that wasn’t until Dec. 28. We should also remember how freakish his speed appeared, in the son of a Derby winner who was himself out of an A.P. Indy mare, so perhaps Runhappy’s stock will only really begin to smile as sophomores.

Certainly breeders have been given every incentive to keep the faith, at the new fee. And we wish the horse well, in principle, because his brilliant sales debut surely owed something to the restraint governing his opening books (all four in the 120s) and so reminded everyone that there’s nothing remotely “commercial” about the industrial numbers thrown at new sires elsewhere.

The concluding part of this instalment in our series will appear in Tuesday’s edition, featuring the likes of, among others, Upstart, Speightster, Air Force Blue, Exaggerator, Tourist, Flintshire and Brody’s Cause, along with our “value podium.”

The post Kentucky Sires for 2021: First Sophomores–Part I appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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As it is, we can instead treat his latest champion, Authentic, as immediate and priceless confirmation that an upgrade in Into Mischief’s mares–and remember he was still only a $45,000 cover when Peter Blum sent Flawless (Mr Greeley) to the Spendthrift phenomenon in 2016–would enable him to draw out his trademark speed through a second turn.

There had, admittedly, already been auspicious glimpses of this capacity: Owendale and Audible, for instance, had both emerged from much cheaper books to finish strongly for Classic placings. But the emergence of a GI Kentucky Derby and GI Breeders’ Cup Classic winner is not a matter of mere consolidation for Into Mischief. Authentic represents a neon validation of his competence to produce the kind of Triple Crown stock commensurate with a fee that has now soared, even as tariffs are being slashed at his own and virtually every other farm, to $225,000.

And if Authentic proved to be aptly named, then how about Life Is Good as a potential flagship for their sire’s next crop, which was conceived at $75,000? It’s obviously early days for a colt who only made his debut last month, but their trainer is eyeing the GIII Sham S. on Saturday–the very race he used to launch Authentic as a similarly raw sophomore prospect.

Other Into Mischief youngsters already astir include Mandaloun, who has won both starts to date for Brad Cox and may head to the GIII Lecomte S. a couple of weeks later; and Highly Motivated, whose track record at Keeneland was admittedly one of several to fall Breeders’ Cup weekend but nonetheless attests to his abundant natural speed. As a sprinter who must show how far he can stretch, Highly Motivated sets a familiar challenge. But Mandaloun certainly measures the changing complexion of the genetic material nowadays complementing Into Mischief’s own contribution: he is a Juddmonte homebred, out of an Empire Maker mare who won a Group race over just short of 10 furlongs in Ireland.

Authentic was his sire’s flagship runner this year | Coady

The momentum behind Into Mischief, as such, looks inexorable for the next few years. His rise has been sustained by unusually reliable libido and fertility, and he remains assured of undiminished quantity to support the improving quality of his mares. His books have proved invulnerable to fee increases: his 2021 juveniles, conceived at $100,000, emerge from a book of 245; the next crop, at $150,000, from one of 241; and this year he covered 248 mares at $175,000. Obviously he has his home herd to service, gratis, but the turnover being generated by outside mares is still eye-watering.

Famously, of course, there are nine breeders out there who wouldn’t have to pay a cent–though presumably they will mostly have cashed out by now, having secured a lifetime breeding right by committing a mare to Into Mischief’s first two seasons. It was launching a couple of rookies into the backdraft of the 2008 financial crisis that inspired Spendthrift’s owner B. Wayne Hughes to develop Share the Upside, pioneer among many the incentive schemes that have meanwhile transformed the stallion industry in the Bluegrass. (A process, admittedly, that has discomfited many a farm; and, in candour, made some rivals resent the rise of Into Mischief as poster boy for a whole new culture.)

The kind of elite stallion Hughes is now managing to bring to the farm won’t need that kind of extra support. Both Spendthrift and its flagship stallion have come a long way since Into Mischief covered 50 mares at $7,500 in 2012, just as his first runners were about to reach the track.

Those first years earning his stripes do mean that Into Mischief is now in his prime, about to turn 16. He already has some promising sons at stud, even from his cheaper books, and breeders at all levels duly have more accessible alternatives: from those who sent 196 mares to Maximus Mischief at $7,500 in his debut book, to those who will pay 10 times that sum to reach Authentic this coming spring.

Nonetheless, after finishing 35th, 13th and fourth in the three years prior to his first title, Into Mischief is clearly going to take a lot of shifting from the summit for the time being. Yes, it remains possible for a handful of disproportionate purses in the international calendar to distort the validity of a pecking order determined by prize money. In fact, it had come to seem imperative to find a more instructive gauge after Unbridled’s Song won a posthumous championship in 2017 exclusively through the lucrative endeavors of Arrogate, who won the GI Pegasus and G1 Dubai World Cup in the first three months of the year. Otherwise Unbridled’s Song would have finished 44th. (Not that the horse so denied the title, Candy Ride {Arg}, could throw stones from his glass house: without Gun Runner, he would have finished 20th.)

Into Mischief at home at Spendthrift | Sarah Andrew

Hats off, then, to Into Mischief for restoring a helpful correlation between prize money and consistent merit. Last year, his top earner Covfefe contributed just $1,052,425 to an overall haul of $19,179,389. This time round, his progeny earned well over $15 million even without the bank vault filled by Authentic. That would still have put him $3 million clear of a runner-up, in Medaglia d’Oro, who himself owes very nearly half his 2020 earnings to his prolific Hong Kong star Golden Sixty (Aus).

And that’s in terms of global earnings. If measured by North American and European purses only, Into Mischief has doubled the tally of his nearest pursuer, Uncle Mo ($21.7 million against $10.6 million). To be fair, whatever else he is, he is not yet a stallion of intercontinental reach: his overseas earnings are marginal. But he is certainly restoring the good name of the championship he has retained.

This consistency of output is partly a function of the industrial Spendthrift model–which is driven by opportunity, to put it positively; or numbers, to put it more plainly. Even in a year where the pandemic devoured much of the springtime program, and in particular delayed the advent of the juveniles, Into Mischief has had 420 starters. (This and all other numbers cited remain subject to mild overnight updates, being correct to Dec. 30.) In the top 10 only Uncle Mo, standing on another farm that will not take kindly to the impending restriction on books to 140, has had even 300 starters.

So yes, there have been plenty of stallions in 2020 with a superior ratio of winners to starters. But the witting, willing trade-off made by these big commercial farms, who believe a stallion gets more momentum from headline horses than small-print percentages, does not actually weaken the credentials of the champion. Because his 15% black-type performers-to-starters is the best of the year; narrowly exceeding a rival, in War Front, who has always operated with quality ahead of quantity.  His 29 black-type winners, moreover, were assembled at a clip matched among Kentucky rivals only by Speightstown and, in another significant endorsement for the numbers game, Uncle Mo.

Other Top Proven Sires
We’ll be crediting several who have performed well behind Into Mischief in our ongoing series previewing covering options for 2021. For now, it’s worth giving honourable mentions to a handful. Multiple previous champion Tapit remains a wonder of consistency, once again on the podium; the splendid veteran Speightstown was unique in managing four individual Grade I winners; Munnings, in breaking into the top ten, has stopped smouldering and is now sparking at last, as high as fourth in the North American/European table; Hard Spun, following through on fourth last year with another excellent show in ninth, continues to outpunch his fee; and likewise The Factor, still only $17,500 despite only just missing the top 10 active Kentucky stallions.

Uncle Mo | Coolmore photo

But perhaps the most conspicuous achiever behind Into Mischief has been Uncle Mo–not just after ascending to fourth from 13th, but as the sire of three of the top four in the freshmen’s championship. That makes 2020 a game-changing year for Ashford’s linchpin of the Caro line, who is only turning 13.

Among his current racing stock, consistency was the key: while he didn’t muster a single Grade I winner, none could match Uncle Mo’s 14 individual graded stakes winners. But for a stallion with just six racing crops to have emerged virtually overnight as a sire of sires is quite extraordinary.

First-Crop Sires
Just as Nyquist emerged from Uncle Mo’s first crop to emulate his 2-year-old championship, so he has in turn become champion freshman sire (by prize money) with a GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner of his own. Vequist accounts for half the earnings banked by Nyquist’s 17 winners from 45 starters. He has not messed around: he only has two stakes winners, but both had the opportunism to win at Grade I level (Vequist plus Summer S. winner Gretzky the Great). Of five black-type performers overall, moreover, Nyquist has had two others placed at the elite level.

If Nyquist has jumped through the same hoops as his sire, Laoban came out of left field–or at least out of New York, where he had started at $5,000. After pulling fairytale GI Alcibiades S. winner Simply Ravishing out of his hat, Laoban is on his way to WinStar in Kentucky where he will join Outwork, their sire’s other fast starter with 19 winners.

Not This Time | Jon Siegel

Intruding on Uncle Mo’s private party was Not This Time, far and away the most prolific with no fewer than 28 individual winners from 54 starters. He has proved he can get a good one, too, with the charismatic OBS Spring Sale-topper Princess Noor a runaway winner of the GI Del Mar Debutante (unfortunately since retired with a soft tissue injury).

Second-Crop Sires
These young guns will now look to consolidate after the fashion of American Pharoah and Constitution, who finished first and second in the freshmen’s table last year and fill the same positions in the second-crop championship. The big mover in this group was obviously Daredevil, whose star filly Swiss Skydiver helped him up to fourth, and back to the Bluegrass from Turkey, after her anonymous debut last year.

Third-Crop Sires and Beyond
Top of the preceding intake remains Goldencents, who finished second as a freshman and first last year. This was the first racehorse to show that Into Mischief might become a more potent sire than had been expected. Who can say, then, which unheralded young stallion may commence some equivalent rags-to-riches rise in 2021? That’s the whole beauty of this business. We’re always seeing stallions who seem to have the world at their feet, falling flat on their faces; and the converse, too.

As Hughes constantly reminds his team at Spendthrift: “Nobody knows.” That may seem a disadvantage, if you’re trying to put together any kind of coherent business plan with Thoroughbreds. But actually it’s what gives us all a chance–and the reason why Into Mischief, for all the uncomfortable challenges Hughes has set more conventional competitors, deserves a universal toast on concluding another remarkable chapter in his epic tale.

The post Life Only Gets Better for Mischief appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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At the same time, however, we have meanwhile had the dead weight of the pandemic reining in fees nearly across the board. And here again, as so often, it was B. Wayne Hughes and his team who took the lead. So while the farms have largely priced the latest group of rookies with confidence in an unswerving addiction among commercial breeders, some of the fees charged for the preceding group have been trimmed in purposeful fashion.

One way or another, then, the seas are high. But breeders can certainly hope to catch a following wind.
The Spendthrift factory was certainly functioning with its customary efficiency when these horses were launched in the spring. In fact, its big three newcomers corralled 683 mares between them.

Anyone who considers that a grotesque number (not least when two of them have meanwhile done a shift in Australia) will look forward to a time, down the road, when stallions will be confined to 140 partners apiece. The game-changing element here, of course, is that the gene pool is no longer being inundated just by slick commercial blood, but by wholesome two-turn influences as well.

What remains unchanged is that breeders participate in this kind of exercise–not just at Spendthrift, of course, but at all the big commercial farms–with their eyes wide open. Yes, sheer numbers behind a stallion increase the odds of a headline runner, capable of effacing much statistical embarrassment; but the trade-off will always be a potential glut of his stock funnelled into the same sales cycle.

To me, that’s a risk well worth running with OMAHA BEACH (War Front–Charming by Seeking the Gold) after he mustered 215 mares for his debut book. Even at the highest tag of the intake, we dared to put him on the “value podium” last year because $45,000 looked such a fair valuation of its standout package. Now that you can get to him for $35,000, then, the shifting market sands are amply secured by the fact that the package itself remains precisely as attractive as before.

True, the farm has not been able to resist trumpeting him as “No. 1 freshman covering sire.” I can’t blame them for that, everyone else does it, but I do wish people would stop pretending that covering sire “stats” have the slightest meaning. It’s insulting to the mare, against whose primary value the paternity of a foal in utero always remains but an incidental benefit; and, in turn, it’s insulting to the intelligence of breeders.
Be that as it may, this is a stallion who doesn’t need any such flimsy Christmas baubles. So far as these things are ever predictable, Omaha Beach appears cast-iron.

Though sadly scratched as favorite for both the GI Kentucky Derby and an intended swansong in the GI Pegasus Gold Cup, he demonstrated his class with an accomplishment nearly as rare and auspicious as a Triple Crown as the first in 30 years to win Grade Is at nine and six furlongs in the same campaign. In both cases, moreover, he achieved bona fide elite form: the GI Arkansas Derby runner-up Improbable (City Zip) has himself just retired at $40,000, while Shancelot (Shanghai Bobby) is so fearsome a specialist in the sprint sphere that he returned to course and distance next time to burn off all bar champion Mitole (Eskendereya) at the Breeders’ Cup.

We’ll happily indulge Omaha Beach his own defeat at that meeting, a creditable enough effort in a race that played out all wrong; while the flair of his third elite success, in the Malibu, only heightened regret that his trainer was not asked to explore the full range of his potential at four. Even as it was, however, he is the most accomplished dirt runner by a sire who is beyond the reach of most. Omaha Beach trademarked his speed, and his ability to carry it, in consecutive wins at 1:49.91 and 1:08.79.

And all this is underwritten by one of the most vigorous contemporary pedigrees around: he’s a half-brother to champion juvenile filly Take Charge Brandi (Giant’s Causeway) out of a half-sister to two other Grade I winners in Will Take Charge (Unbridled’s Song) and Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy), their dam Take Charge Lady (Dehere) herself a multiple elite scorer. The pairing with War Front, meanwhile, doubles the vibrant influence of Rubiano–responsible for Omaha Beach’s third dam, besides being damsire of War Front. Rubiano, of course, was a half-brother to the dam of Tapit and duly represents the kind of knot in a pedigree you know to be woven from strong material.

With scopey looks and personality to match, Omaha Beach has all bases covered. If he ends up following the usual commercial cycles, taking cuts until his first runners restore momentum, then he looks one to stick with throughout.

You can only wonder what Omaha Beach might have achieved at four, when you consider the example of his neighbor VINO ROSSO (Curlin–Mythical Bride by Street Cry {Ire})–whose strong career finish was rewarded by a staggering 238 mares, exceeded nationally only by Uncle Mo and Mendelssohn, at Ashford, and his own farm’s flagship Into Mischief. Nonetheless he gets a clip from $30,000 to $25,000 to keep that door revolving.

The theory with this horse is that if it looks like a Curlin, swims like a Curlin, and quacks like a Curlin, chances are that it will be a Curlin. He certainly made the resemblance stronger in his third season, transforming himself from likeable slugger into the brilliant author of a 111 Beyer when taking his bow in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic.

And I must say it’s a lot easier to tolerate such huge books for unproven stallions when they match such sturdy, worthy track performance with a pedigree that is so well balanced. Like Omaha Beach, Vino Rosso is out of a dam who combines the Mr. Prospector sire-line with that of broodmare sire legend Deputy Minister. But he goes a step farther: both sire and damsire are by sons of Mr. Prospector; and sire and dam are out of mares respectively by Deputy Minister and his son Touch Gold.

This is somewhat reminiscent of the way inbreeding to Mr. P. is counterweighted by an influence for toughness and class (namely Nijinsky) in Justify (Scat Daddy), who was born the previous day on the same farm. Glennwood had been typically astute in acquiring Vino Rosso’s dam before her weanling half-brother blossomed into GI Belmont S. runner-up Commissioner (A.P. Indy) and another sibling, Laugh Track (Distorted Humor), was foiled by a similarly narrow margin in GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

Another striking physical, Vino Rosso is a fascinating test case for the commercial proliferation of a really edifying, old-school template. Can you get too much of a good thing? What a pleasant change to find out!

Pure commercial speed, however, was still available from the other big gun rolled into the Spendthrift arsenal last year. MITOLE (Eskendereya–Indian Miss by Indian Charlie) was correspondingly busy, entertaining 230 guests, yet gets an eye-opening slash in fee to $15,000 from $25,000.

Mitole bestrode the sprint division in a fashion that would have made him a perfectly legitimate Horse of the Year, spreading his four Grade I wins between six and eight furlongs, with a stakes record in no less storied a race than the Forego at the intermediate trip. Any horse that can sandwich a performance like that between success in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (112 Beyer) and the stallion-making Met Mile has the kind of deep-grained speed that holds. Witness times in those races of 1:09 flat, 1:20.8 and 1:32.75.

The new fee offers a helpful nudge to those seeking a little more breadth to his pedigree, albeit his dam is a half-sister to a Grade II winner; but they should comfort themselves that Mitole’s sire, though hastily exported, represents a truly aristocratic family and this was his second Met Mile winner in three crops.

Having started on the same peg, AUDIBLE (Into Mischief–Blue Devil Bel by Gilded Time) gets a mild trim to $22,500 after receiving 219 mares–apparently the biggest herd that WinStar has ever rounded up for a rookie. Obviously plenty of breeders out there agree that what counts most about Audible is the visible, his farm lauding this fine mover as “the best-looking son of Into Mischief.”

He evidently made a lasting impression in the GI Florida Derby, despite subsequently taking six months out after a storming third to Justify (Scat Daddy) in the GI Kentucky Derby and then disappearing for good after a fine effort in the G1 Dubai World Cup. In hindsight the relaxed, long-striding Audible was a real pathfinder for Authentic (Into Mischief) in showing how their sire, with the upgrading of his mares, would stretch his speed round a second turn to become a legitimate player at Classic level.

But fear not, Audible had all the trademark speed and precocity, too, as a $500,000 2-year-old who was really rolling by the time he romped in the GII Holy Bull S. in 1:41.92. And if the page is somewhat patchy in between, his fourth dam is multiple Grade I winner Classy Cathy (Private Account).

It’s perfectly understandable for Claiborne to hold CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready–Song Of Bernadette by Bernardini) at $25,000. His genes, physical and track record are just the same, after all, albeit the world around us may be a rather different place. Needless to say, this is a very different kind of farm from Spendthrift anyway, typically favoring conservative books (Catholic Boy began with 131 mares) to avoid flooding the market. Besides, as one breeder recently complained to me, it can be demoralizing when the value of your foal’s paternity is diminished when still in utero.

Claiborne has a long history of standing stallions of international reach and Catholic Boy absolutely fits as a Grade I winner on both dirt and turf at three. And it’s worth remembering that he had laid down a very similar marker as a juvenile, impressing in the GII Remsen S. after closing to within two lengths in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

He was also a graded stakes winner at Saratoga in that first campaign, so would seem perfectly entitled to get his stock up and running. The immediate family is solid without being regal, but the first three dams are by highly edifying broodmare influences in Bernardini, Seeking the Gold and Nijinsky, while beyond that you get to the same Argentinian family that gave us La Lorgnette (Val de l’Orne {Fr}), the Canadian champion who produced an extraordinary European talent in Hawk Wing (Woodman).

While entitled to breed a two-turn dirt horse, Catholic Boy can plainly cater to proliferating turf/synthetic opportunities and would merit the kind of enterprise we don’t see enough from European shoppers. Maybe it’s just a case of whether the future arrives in time, but he’s “More Than Ready” for it.

Much the same is true of YOSHIDA (Heart’s Cry {Jpn}–Hilda’s Passion by Canadian Frontier), who gets a clip to $15,000 from $20,000 after entertaining 148 clients at WinStar. His principal service might be to repatriate the line of Sunday Silence, whose breed-shaping impact on turf in Japan duly extends the versatility we associate with the overall Halo brand (not least through WinStar’s own international flagship, the sire of Catholic Boy).

Sure enough, Yoshida crowned a tough and consistent career over three seasons with elite success on both grass and dirt, and was additionally beaten under two lengths both over a straight mile at Royal Ascot and behind Accelerate (Lookin At Lucky) in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic.

His page offers a corresponding blend, tracing to a half-sister to Damascus via a granddam by El Prado (Ire). There is rather more quantity than quality in between, and the damsire won’t help in that regard, but something is certainly working: Yoshida’s dam won the GI Ballerina S. by nine lengths and clocked a 1:20.45 track record in the GII Inside Information S. Certainly his own sire is a Thoroughbred of the very highest class, while you can judge his physical allure by a yearling tag of $750,000.

Read part two of Chris McGrath’s Value Sires-First Kentucky Weanlings in Friday’s TDN, with coverage of World of Trouble, Catalina Cruiser, Preservationist, Divisidero, Enticed, Flameaway, Maximus Mischief, Coal Front, Demarchelier, Heart to Heart, Lost Treasure and Qurbaan, plus Chris’s top three on the value podium.

The post KY Value Sires For 2021: First Foals Due: Part I appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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