“I am honored to be chosen as the next president of NYTHA,” said Bond. “It is an important time for our industry and the future of horse racing. I look forward to working with NYRA and the New York breeders to continue the great work of keeping New York racing at the top of our industry. We have the best owners, the best trainers, the best employees, and soon we will have the best facilities. I want to thank Joe Appelbaum and our past board members for all of their work and support. And I want to congratulate our new board–I look forward to working with all of you.”

Also in NYTHA election results released Wednesday, owner/directors to the board are: Tom Bellhouse, Dan Collins, Sanford Goldfarb, Dr. Jennifer White, Aron Yagoda, and alternate Andrew Aaron.

Trainer/Trainer-Owner directors are: Jena Antonucci, David Donk, David Duggan, James Ferraro, John Terranova, and alternate Linda Rice.

“I'd like to recognize everyone who put themselves out there to run for a position,” said outgoing NYTHA president Joe Appelbaum. “NYTHA's strength is in our community and the more that participate, the better. Good luck to the incoming board, they are going to need our support.”

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This year's batch–three Yale undergrads studying economics, electrical engineering and political science–were tasked with a data-driven analysis of the economics of the national horse racing biz over the past 20 years.

Harboring no previous relationship with the industry, the three undergrads came in free of prejudice and preconceptions.

The result is a 33-page paper weaving piercing and worrying insights into the state of racehorse ownership, racetrack management and training in the country alongside findings that give tentative cause for optimism.

It's also the sort of detailed analysis of horse racing's economic foundation stones that's done all too infrequently for an industry of this size and scope.

“We've been a sport that traditionally makes decisions either around general 'chat around the pub,' or just whatever the richest guy in the room thinks,” said Joe Appelbaum, NYTHA president and an advisor on the study.

“Neither is usually a good one to make good economic decisions from,” he added.

Among the areas the three researchers focused in on were owner, trainer and horse participation; purse and handle trends; the bloodstock market; along with a side-by-side economic analysis of horse racing and other national sports.

They break their key findings down the following way:

• That the 2008 global financial meltdown significantly hastened the decline in trainer numbers, owner interest numbers and participating racehorses.

• That two areas–bloodstock prices and per-capita purse distribution–showed surprising resilience during that time.

• More pointedly, with fewer horses competing for increased purses per race, individual owner entities have generally been doing slightly better financially over the last 20 years.

• Despite areas of improved economic value for owners, costs remain high while the entertainment value of the sport appears to be declining due in part to horses racing less and working more.

• The economic divide between the bigger and smaller trainers remained unchanged over the past 20 years. That said, such a divide is a characteristic of other national professional sports.

• A consolidation of quality horses among fewer and fewer of the nation's largest stables has also triggered growing inequality among the top trainers.

• At the end of the day, the not-for-profit model of certain racetracks coupled with the “capitalist nature” of Kentucky's breeding market could serve as models for other areas of the industry.

The detailed analysis warrants a much closer look at some of the statistics woven through it, several of which mirror the TDN's own prior dives into similar topics.

PARTICIPATION

The past 20 years has seen a decrease of nearly 40% in total horses that raced, a decrease of nearly 55% in total trainers that had at least one horse make a start, and a decrease of just over 42% in the number of owners who owned at least one horse.

Interestingly, the sharp drop in trainer numbers has been reflected in the TDN's own examination of California's trainer colony. Between 2007 and 2020, California witnessed a 46.4% decrease in the number of individual trainers making at least one start: from 573 in 2007 to 307 in 2020.

Hastening the speed of these declines was the 2008 global financial meltdown.

As the researchers write, “it accelerated the declines among horses and owners, and although trainers were already leaving the industry at a significant rate prior to the recession, trainers were still impacted by the economic crisis as they rely on owners to give them their horses.”

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, however, there have been tentative signs of plateauing declines in the number of participating owner interests and competing horses.

In what will prove a surprise to no careful observer of the sport, the last 20 years has also witnessed a 37% drop in the number of races run nationally, and a 45% drop in the number of individual starts.

“The landscape of the horse racing industry has changed a lot over the past 20 years as it has lost close to half its existing participants and 37% of its total races,” the researchers write.

“As the number of races, owners, and trainers continues to decrease across the country,” they warn, “the survival of horse racing is threatened.”

PURSE DISTRIBUTION

An inflation-adjusted look at purse levels show that total purses declined by nearly 25% between 2003 and 2023.

However, declines in the number of overall races run nationally over that same period has led to a situation of improved per-race, per-start economics for owners and trainers.

Indeed, inflation-adjusted purse-per-race numbers increased nearly 18% during that time, while inflation-adjusted purse-per-start numbers increased nearly 30%.

In another similarly themed section, the researchers took a stab at quantifying the cost of owning a horse, using numbers shared by one of the nation's “leading racing operations,” which remained unnamed.

Calculating typical training costs, the average days a horse is in training, farm costs, predicted jockey fees, and stable fees, the researchers estimated that the average annual earnings by a horse required to break even for its owner in 2022 was around $66,500.

In 2003, a horse had to win more than $41,810 for the owner to profit, they found.

The findings suggest that the number of horses “breaking even” for their owners over the past 20 years grew from below 8% in 2003 to over 11% in 2022.

Unsurprisingly, there were precipitous drops in the numbers of “breaking even” horses during the 2008 economic collapse and during the worst impacts from COVID-19.

The reason for this overall increase, the researchers write, is twofold.

“There are fewer horses racing, which is an effect of the decrease in the supply of foal crop,” they wrote. “And there is a higher amount of money available due to the alternative revenue provided through the casinos at the tracks.”

FOAL CROP AND SALES

The sales rings provided the researchers with another area for optimism.

“As the economy in general and horse racing in particular emerged from the Great Recession,” they write, “one area of clear strength has been the increasing value of bloodstock at all levels.”

Indeed, the inflation-adjusted average price of weanlings, yearlings and 2-year-olds increased over the past 20 years by just over $14,500. The same goes for median prices.

Since a recession-led low back in 2009, the median sales price increased 48% to a level of $30,000 in 2022.

“This upward trend in the median price indicates that a wide range of bloodstock assets, not only just the high-end ones, have experienced value appreciation,” the researchers write.

Why is this? The researchers contend that simple supply and demand is at play as the national foal crop has declined nearly 50% over the past 20 years.

“As the supply of horses eligible to be auctioned decreased due to the lower foal crop, breeders and sellers found themselves with fewer horses. Notably, the demand for these horses remained relatively constant, or in some cases, may even have increased,” the researchers write.

The combination of reduced supply and stable demand has led to an “upward pressure on prices,” they add.

SUPER TRAINERS

The researchers also tackle one of the bete-noirs of the industry–the issue of so-called “super trainers.”

Over the last 20 years, the industry has lost nearly 55% of its trainers. Most have been “micro-trainers” and “midsize” trainers–in other words, those with between 1-10 discreet horses, and between 11-40 discreet horses respectively.

Fewer races, horses, and owners invariably lead to fewer trainers, the researchers reasonably deduce. At the same time, existing stables have consolidated size.

The average horse-per-trainer ratio has grown from 8.2 horses per trainer in 2003 to 11.1 in 2022.

“With owners preferring trainers with more horses, the micro-trainers are losing out on potential clients and struggling to maintain a sustainable business,” the researchers warn. “Many of them may have decided to exit the industry altogether due to the diminishing demand for their services.”

At the opposite end of the scale are “super trainers” who operate stables with 80 or more horses.

The number of super trainers has stayed relatively constant in the midst of declining trainer numbers. In 2003 there were 123 super trainers, and in 2022 there were 114.

These findings mirror the TDN's own analysis of the training colony in California. While the number of active trainers in California almost halved between 2007 and 2020, the number of trainers with 100-plus horses making starts stayed fairly constant.

At the same time, the Yale researchers found that the nation's super trainers have significantly increased their percentage share of total available winnings over 20 years, from 27% in 2003 to 41% in 2022.

This means that last year, 114 “super trainers”–just 3% of the total number of active trainers–accrued 41% of the total available winnings.

Intriguingly, the researchers argue that this yawning disparity between racing's select few top-tier trainers and the rest is mirrored in other professional sports, like golf and football.

“Horse racing is a unique sport as it does not have many similarities to popular sports in the country, but so is golf, and despite being unique, they are both sports that have similar issues that must be overcome to participate,” the researchers write.

“Neither is easy to stay in, especially if you are not in the top percent,” they add. “It is hard to win, hard to profit, and hard to compete, but that is exactly what makes them both sports in the first place.”

WHAT TO DO?

The report has other intriguing findings, including how the income disparity seen among trainers is reflected between racetracks, with only a select few tracks thriving and offering competitive purses.

Ultimately, said Appelbaum, the report could and perhaps should trigger a couple of key industry responses.

One would be to decrease the regulatory burden “as much as possible,” especially when it comes to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act and to sports wagering.

“The current regulatory regime both in New York and around the country is really a bit redundant and not in step with the current sports wagering environment,” he said.

The other would be to regionalize circuits of racing to provide for “better planning of races between tracks and jurisdictions,” he said.

At the end of the day, the report should also spur more of these in-depth analyses into the economic building blocks of the sport.

“Why is it three college-age interns are doing this?” Appelbaum added. “Why aren't we doing more of this ourselves?”

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A General Nominating Meeting will be held at Belmont Park Friday, Oct. 6, to announce candidates for the 2023 New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association Board election, NYTHA announced Saturday. The NYTHA Board consists of the President, five Owner Directors, and five Trainer or Owner/Trainer Directors.

Nominations can be submitted in person at the meeting or via email to election2023@nytha.com.

CANDIDATES FOR NOMINATION OR TO SERVE AS A NYTHA DIRECTOR MUST:

(A) Be a voting member of NYTHA in good standing (licensed as an owner or trainer by the New York State Gaming Commission, and listed as a Thoroughbred racehorse owner or trainer in the Equibase owner or trainer records and in an official track program, OR own a minimum of 5% of a Thoroughbred racehorse that starts in a qualifying race within the jurisdiction of this Association) for at least one year immediately preceding the date of her/his nomination.

(B) Remain a member in good standing for the entire term of her/his directorship.

(C) Have started one or more horses a minimum of five times at a NYRA track while a member of NYTHA in the one year immediately preceding the date of her/his nomination.

CANDIDATES FOR NOMINATION OR TO SERVE AS NYTHA PRESIDENT MUST:

(A) Be a voting member of NYTHA in good standing (licensed as an owner or trainer by the New York State Gaming Commission, and listed as a Thoroughbred racehorse owner or trainer in the Equibase owner or trainer records and in an official track program, OR own a minimum of 5% of a Thoroughbred racehorse that starts in a qualifying race within the jurisdiction of this Association) for at least three years immediately preceding the date of her/his nomination.

(B) Remain a member in good standing for the entire term of her/his presidency.

(C) Have started one or more horses a minimum of five times while a member of NYTHA in each of the three years immediately preceding the date of her/his nomination.

Candidates will be announced in November. The election is scheduled to take place Wednesday, Dec. 27, 2023.

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Re-elected to three-year terms were current trustees Shannon Arvin, Jeffrey Bloom, Marette Farrell, Brant Laue, Garrett O'Rourke, and Stephen Screnci.

“It's an honor and a privilege to lead an organization that deeply cares about the economics and integrity of horse racing on behalf of owners and breeders,” O'Farrell said.

Following its annual members meeting, the TOBA Board of Trustees met to elect officers for the association.

Officers named for 2023-2024 are: David O'Farrell, chairman, Everett Dobson, vice-chairman, Dan Metzger, president; Doug Cauthen, secretary; and Garrett O'Rourke, treasurer.

The TOBA Board also approved the appointment of Alex Solis II to the American Graded Stakes Committee.

The 2023-2024 committee is comprised of TOBA members Everett Dobson (chair), Barbara Banke, Walker Hancock, Brant Laue, David O'Farrell, and Alex Solis II and racing officials Dan Bork (Churchill Downs and Ellis Park) Frank Gabriel (NYRA), Rick Hammerle (Kentucky Downs), Chris Merz (Santa Anita Park), and Tora Yamaguchi (Del Mar).

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“NYRA is committed to supporting and enhancing the New York-bred program now and in the future,” said Frank Gabriel, NYRA SVP of Racing Operations. “These purse increases reflect the sustained growth of the New York-bred marketplace, while also rewarding owners already invested in the program.”

The purse for registered New York-breds running in select open-company races will be 30% higher than the purse offered for non-New York-breds. Additionally, New York State Breeding Fund Owner Awards and breeder awards will be paid on top of the 30% additional purse for registered New York-breds.

“The opportunity for registered New York-breds to compete for elevated purses in select open company conditions during the Saratoga meet, along with increases in breeder and open company awards provided by the New York State Thoroughbred Breeding & Development Fund reflect the commitment by New York's respective Thoroughbred racing stakeholders in continuing to elevate the New York-bred program,” said New York Thoroughbred Breeders, Inc. Executive Director Najja Thompson. “We are confident much of the money earned from these purse increases will be reinvested in New York-breds, starting with the Fasig-Tipton New York-bred Select Yearlings Sale in August at Saratoga.”

In open maiden special weight races, New York-breds will run for a purse of $136,500–with up to $23,751 NYSBFOA–while non-New York-breds will compete for a purse of $105,000.

In allowance levels, open first-level allowances will offer a New York-bred purse of $149,500 (up to $26,013 NYSBFOA) and a non-New York-bred purse of $115,000; open second-level allowances offering a New York-bred purse of $156,000 (up to $27,144 NYSBFOA) and a non-New York-bred purse of $120,000; and third-level open allowances offering New York-breds $162,500 (up to $28,275 NYSBFOA) and a non-New York-bred purse of $125,000.

“These purse bonuses directly benefit owners of New York-breds by incentivizing them to compete in our open-company program,” said New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association president Joe Appelbaum. “New York-breds have routinely competed and won at all levels throughout the nation. This program provides owners and trainers a real dollars and cents reason to leave the restricted New York-bred program. The benefits will accrue to, not only the connections, but to field size, handle and ultimately back to the purse account.”

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OCALA, FL – The Ocala Breeders' Sales Company's Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training completed its four-day run Friday with a  new record gross and average and a record-tying median in an auction which closely mirrored the 2022 renewal which set high-water marks for all of those metrics.

Through four sessions, 698 horses grossed $90,805,000. A year ago, 705 horses grossed a record $90,723,000. The 2023 average of $129,907 was up fractionally from $128,685. The median remained unchanged at $65,000.

“It was a great day,” said OBS Director of Sales Tod Wojciechowski. “We finished up strong, right to the end of the sale where we sold a horse for $500,000. It was a good day to end with.”

This week's Spring sale had to contend with a more uncertain global backdrop than a year ago, according to OBS President Tom Ventura.

“We're just glad we were able to hold up to a pretty high bar from last year,” Ventura said. “The world has changed since last April. Things have happened that could have impacted the marketplace and it didn't, so that was great to see.”

A colt by Into Mischief topped Friday's session and became the sale's third seven-figure juvenile–and first session topper not purchased by Amr Zedan–when selling for $1.3 million to Randy Hartley and Dean DeRenzo, bidding on behalf of a new partnership headed by Miami music mogul Rich Mendez.

Five horses sold for seven figures a year ago, when 25 juveniles sold for $500,000 or over. With three million-dollar transactions this year, a total of 28 horses sold for over $500,000.

From a catalogue of 1,222, 840 juveniles went through the ring with 142 failing to meet their reserves for a buy-back rate of 16.9%. A year ago, the catalogue featured 1,231 head and 705 went through the ring with 132 failing to meet their reserves for a buy-back rate of 15.8%.

Consignors continued to comment on the polarized market.

“It's the most polarized market that I've ever seen,” said Clovis Crane. “Everyone keeps saying that it's polar, but I think it's even more polar than ever.”

There was plenty of demand for horses at the top of the market, according to Sequel Bloodstock's Carlos Manresa.

“Over the week, it became clear that the very high end were very desirable and you were also able to sell horses that were closer to the bottom,” said Manresa. “The middle market was very difficult to place. That seemed to be the consensus among the consignors. I think that a lot of the consignors will be changing strategies going into the yearling season.”

He continued, “The guys that gave a lot of money [as yearlings] on the top end, like Dean [DeRenzo] and Randy [Hartley] were handsomely rewarded. Some of Ciaran [Dunne]'s horses, they had a lot of money in them as well. And Nick de Meric and Tom McCrocklin–those were the horses that really stood out here. They had the sires and they worked very well.”

“There was some forgiveness if you had a less commercially desirable sire if there was a really fast work. Ultimately, the prices were directly related to the works. There is a strong correlation between the works and price. There were horses that we gave $50-150,000 for and they were in no-man's land if they didn't work well.”

Colin Brennan agreed the money for the top-end horses was there, but the middle market struggled.

“I think there was great money here for the right horses; the horses who breezed well and ticked all the boxes. We were fortunate to have a few of those and some solid pinhooks. Of course, the lower market struggled a little bit, especially on this last day. Traditionally you would get a little bit more of a middle market with this sale because there is something for everybody. I felt like that $100-$300,000 range was a little quieter. Anyone and everyone you could ask for attended. I think OBS did a good job getting everyone here. They really stepped up their game with marketing this year, with the podcast sponsors and the vidoes they've done on YouTube. I think they did a great job with that. Everyone was here, I don't know if it was the economy or horse or a combination of both.”

But the results were just more of the same to Off The Hook's Joe Appelbaum.

“It's the same market condition that has persisted for several years,” Appelbaum said. “It's reflected at the racetrack as well. If you have the horses that people want to collect like trinkets, you can sell them for any amount of dollars. And after that, there is not a lot of market depth. So much money is flocking to so few horses, there is less to distribute to the middle market. It's simple economics.”

As consignors bemoaned the lack of strength in the middle market, buyers still found plenty of competition in bidding this week in Ocala.

“I got outbid on a lot of horses,” said bloodstock agent Alistair Roden. “There was some value here, but it was hard work to get that value. It's still a healthy market. I know the consignors are not happy, but I suppose they bought them at the top end of the yearling market.”

Chad Schumer was busying buying at all levels of the market this week.

“I think it's a typical 2-year-old market,” he said. “The really high-end horses stood out and brought huge prices. We bought quite a few in different price ranges. We swung on some of the expensive ones and we didn't get them. I don't think I bought a single horse with many bids left in the tank. Almost everything I bought was right at my budget or within $5,000 or $10,000 of what my budget was. So I think it was a fair market. I think a lot of these pinhookers possibly overpaid for the yearlings in September because the market was so strong. And there is a ceiling. Purses are great and that's wonderful, but there is some uncertainty about the economy. I don't know why, it doesn't seem to be bad to me, but a lot of people I talk to keep saying the economy. I guess that might be a factor.”

Also busy throughout the week, bloodstock agent David Meah saw both sides of the ledger struggling.

“There has been a big difference in the last couple of years,” Meah said. “It's been a lot stronger and the middle market seems to have fallen out a bit. It was hard to find the horses in the range we were looking for. We were looking for horses in that $50-$100,000 range, which in the past few years I found a little bit easier. This year, it just seemed very different. For me it was all or nothing. Consignors are struggling to sell them and buyers were struggling to find them.”

He continued, “We were thinking we would buy anywhere from five to 10 and we ended up on the low end with five. We got a lot less than we wanted to get, but we'll go to Maryland [Fasig-Tipton Midlantic] now and see how that goes.”

Wavertree Stables was the auction's leading consignor with 37 sold for $9,041,000 and with his three purchases for Amr Zedan, Donato Lanni was the leading buyer.

Into Mischief Colt Feels the Beat

A colt by Into Mischief (hip 967) became the third seven-figure juvenile of the week–and the first not purchased by Amr Zedan–when selling for $1.3 million early in Friday's final session of the OBS Spring sale. Randy Hartley and Dean DeRenzo, bidding on behalf of a new partnership of owners, signed for the colt, who was consigned by Ciaran Dunne's Wavertree Stables.

“We are helping these guys do a couple of different things,” Hartley said. “It's a group of guys, but Rich Mendez is the head of it. They are looking for horses like this, that if this horse hits a graded stakes, he will be a stallion. He went :9 3/5, unbelievable. He's a super fast horse and super good-looking.”

The bay colt is out of multiple stakes winner Singing Kitty (Minister Wildcat) and was purchased by the Red Wings Enterprises pinhooking partnership of Dunne and Paul Reddam for $300,000 at last year's Keeneland September sale.

“Ciaran has talked about this horse all year,” Hartley said. “And I've talked to everyone on the farm that works there. [Wavertree's] Mark [Edmonds] loved him. They just felt like this was the horse.”

Dunne agreed the team had thought highly of the colt all winter.

“We thought he was one of the nicest horses we've ever had our hands on,” Dunne said. “He trained like a good horse. I thought his breeze was magnificent. To be honest, I think they got a bargain.”

Hartley and DeRenzo signed the ticket for the colt as More Play. For the same group, they purchased a colt by Good Magic (hip 323) for $450,000 earlier in the sale.

Hartley admitted the group was among the underbidders on the $2.2-million colt by Gun Runner who sold during Thursday's session of the four-day auction.

“We went to $1.8 million on him,” Hartley said. “I loved him, he was a beautiful horse, but I wanted this horse more. To me, :9 3/5 and :10 1/5, it's just a lot faster. I just felt like this horse is going to be more brilliant. I promise you, first time out, they will not catch this horse. We are hoping for good things.”

While no trainer had been picked out for the youngster, Hartley said he had a guess.

“We're not sure where he will go yet,” he said. “If I had to guess, it would probably be Baffert. This guy loves Baffert. If he has to go to L.A. for anything, the first place he goes is Bob's barn, so I am guessing that's where he will go.”

Mendez, founder of the Rich Music label in Miami, is still a newcomer to the sport.

“He has only ever raced one before,” Hartley said. “But he is so in love and he's so enthusiastic about the game. He comes to Ocala almost everyday. He loves the farm and he loves his horses. He just bought a big farm here in Ocala, not to have horses on. He just bought it for his wife and kids to come up here.”

Mendez has assembled a group of other fans to invest in both racehorse and pinhooking prospects.

“He's a big social media guy, so he's got a lot of people who are involved because they see him involved,” Hartley said. “So he has gathered all of this money. One of the guys, his father owns a racetrack in Ecuador. So it's a bunch of guys that are in a group together.”

Hartley expects to be buying for the group in the fall, as well.

“We are going to be strong at the yearling market, for pinhooking and racing. I look for them to spend $25-30 million.” —@JessMartiniTDN

Mendez is “All In” on Racing

Rich Mendez, who said he built his independent Latin music label Rich Music from the ground up, is starting his racing business roughly the same way. The music mogul made his first 2-year-old purchases this week in Ocala, warming up with the $450,000 purchase of a Good Magic colt Wednesday, before taking home a $1.3-million son of Into Mischief Friday.

“I am in the music business and we were able to start from nothing and to, at least, become relevant in the game,” Mendez said Friday. “I have always loved the sport of horses. So that's the plan here, as well. To slowly and surely build the brand and go from there.”

Mendez is a lifelong fan of racing and has strong family ties to the sport.

“Back in the day, I used to always be around the track,” he said. “My uncle was a jockey back in the day and I always knew that I wanted to eventually race.”

Mendez has partnered with Randy Hartley and Dean DeRenzo, who signed the ticket on the Into Mischief colt Friday.

“I met Randy and Dean a few years ago,” Mendez said. “We've become close friends. And we just decided this last year to partner up on some babies. The guys do very well at picking good horses. I am excited to be part of their team. ”

With Hartley and DeRenzo, Mendez purchased a group of weanlings last year to pinhook this coming fall. In addition to selling, he also expects to be an active buyer at the yearling sales.

“We will do a little bit of everything and try to do it smart. And to do it right, if there is such as thing,” he said.

As for trainers for his new juveniles, Mendez said, “The Good Magic will go to Jose D'Angelo. He's an up-and-coming trainer, everybody is talking about him. And then we are going to see if this colt goes to Bob [Baffert]. I will call him to see if he wants him eventually.”

Mendez's passion with the horse business has extended to the purchase of a farm in Ocala.

“I'm all in,” he said of his involvement in the sport. “When I got into the music business, it was the same, I am all in. But this time I have some good partners and teachers with Dean and Randy.”

He continued, “I am on my way to see the Good Magic colt now,” Mendez said. “And we loved the Into Mischief colt. I am excited about them.”

Nyquist, Half to Oaks Hopeful, to Speedway

A filly by Nyquist (hip 1024), who is a half-sister to GI Kentucky Oaks hopeful Affirmative Lady (Arrogate), will be joining the roster of Peter Fluor and K.C. Weiner's Speedway Stables after bloodstock agent Marette Farrell signed the ticket at $900,000 to acquire the dark bay from the Wavertree Stables consignment.

“We thought she was a tremendous physical, a beautiful, beautiful filly,” Farrell said. “She had an incredible breeze. And it's not just about the speed for us, it's the way she did it and how she galloped out. Tescha [von Bluecher] and Nick loved how she did it. And when we went to the barn, she was a scorpion. She was beautiful and tough. We are excited for Speedway to have her.”

The juvenile, who is out of multiple stakes winner Stiffed (Stephen Got Even), worked a quarter last week in :20 2/5.

The Red Wings Enterprises pinhooking partnership of Ciaran Dunne and Paul Reddam purchased the filly for $170,000 at last year's Keeneland September sale.

“She is a queen,” Dunne said. “They don't breeze like that too often. She's going to a great owner. She's a nice filly with a great future.”

The Red Wings partnership was also responsible for Friday's seven-figure Into Mischief colt, who was a $300,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase. The group also sold a colt by Bolt d'Oro–who had been purchased for $210,000–for $700,000, and a filly by Omaha Beach–who was purchased for $200,000–for $700,000. An Omaha Beach colt purchased for $160,000 last July, sold Friday for $350,000.

Farrell agreed the team would eagerly be watching the filly's 3-year-old half-sister go to the post in the May 5 GI Kentucky Oaks.

“We will be glued to the Oaks,” she said.

Into Mischief Filly Brings $725K at OBS

Early in Friday's session, a juvenile by Into Mischief drew $1.3 million to lead all colts representing the Spendthrift sire at OBS this week, and later in the session, Hip 1036 led the stallion's fillies with a $725,000 final bid from Rich Schermerhorn, Jay Hanley & 30 Year Farm. Handling the bidding duties from the back ring were agents Liz Crow and Lauren Carlisle.

“Lauren's client, Rich Schermerhorn and my client, Jay Hanley and 30 Year Farm, both individually liked the horse,” explained Crow. “Both of our clients teamed up to get her purchased. She will go to Chad Brown.”

The :9.4 breezer was consigned by Eddie Woods.

As to her obvious selling points, Crow added, “She breezed phenomenal. And she came from Eddie Woods, one of the best consignors here. She is a really beautiful filly and has a really athletic walk.”

Added Woods, “She was a spectacular filly all year. She was very mature in the fall and she was a good filly from the first time we worked her. She's just blossomed through that time.”

The Apr. 9 foal is out of the unraced Succeeding (Smart Strike), a daughter of SW Cascading (A.P. Indy). The third dam Teeming– a half-sister to champion Rags to Riches–is also responsible for GI Hollywood Starlet S. winner Streaming.

Bred by Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings and Stretch Run Ventures, the filly RNA'd for $245,000 at Keeneland last September.

“We don't buy here based on pedigree, but when you have Eddie Woods plus Into Mischief and that kind of breeze, that's what we're looking for,” said Crow.

Asked about her impression of the juvenile market at OBS this week, Crow echoed the sentiments of many buyers and sellers.

“There is a strong market for the top horses and it's really hard to get those bought,” she said. “You have to really reach, which is why our clients lined up together to get that filly bought. The really good horses it takes a strong budget. It's just really hard to buy what is perceived as a really good horse.”

Schermerhorn, Hanley & 30 Year Farm also teamed up Friday to secure Hip 1093, a filly by Audible for $535,000 from the Richardson Bloodstock consignment. —@CBossTDN

Caliente Hits it Out of the Park in OBS Debut

Saul Marquez had one horse in his first-ever consignment and the colt by Solomini (hip 1109) made it a memorable debut when selling for $700,000 to the bid of bloodstock agent Donato Lanni Friday in Ocala. The colt, who worked in :9 4/5, became the first horse purchased by a group of close friends when they paid $50,000 for him at last year's Keeneland September sale.

“I was selling for myself and a couple of buddies,” Marquez said. “We created a pool together, we all pitched in and he was one of the four we bought. He was actually the first one we bought, so this was very sentimental.”

The chestnut is out of Timberlea (Flatter), a half-sister to graded winner Untrapped (Trappe Shot).

Lanni signed the ticket on the New York-bred colt on behalf of Dr. Ed Allred and Jack Liebau.

“He fit our program,” Lanni said. “We want to buy horses that look like stakes horses. It was very hard to buy yearlings in September. He worked really fast and looks the part. He [breezed well] and then you have to pay for it. He is beautiful and we liked him.”

Marquez, who spent years as a jockey's agent in California before relocating to Ocala in February, admitted to some buyer's remorse after acquiring the yearling.

“Honestly, I thought we overpaid for him,” he said. “We were very anxious. But we loved him since day one. He means everything to me.”

Of the colt's price tag Friday, Marquez shook his head in disbelief.

“Honestly, I was happy with $100,000 two weeks ago,” he said. “And today, I don't even know what is going on. It's mixed emotions. I just want to call my mom.”

Following his one-horse consignment at the Spring sale, Marquez will offer two horses at the OBS June sale.

“I am a fourth-generation horseman,” he said. “I was a jock's agent for a long time. My father was an assistant out in California. A friend of mine invited me to the business and I thought there would be better opportunities here. So here I am. I have been in Ocala since February.”

Crane Soars with Lookin At Lucky Colt

What a difference three years make. Just as COVID-19 was about to upend the world in March 2020, Crane Thoroughbreds experienced one of the worst things that a commercial horse operation could face–a barn fire. Located near Penn National, Crane Thoroughbreds tragically lost 15 juveniles in the blaze. However, with a lot of hard work and perseverance, Clovis Crane and his team rose out of the ashes like a phoenix, culminating with the sale of $500,000 colt by Lookin At Lucky at OBS Friday.

“It is very emotional,” admitted the visibly moved Crane. “This is the first time since that barn fire that we got a drink of water.”

Offered as Hip 942, the bay was secured by West Point Thoroughbreds.

“He's going to the best people and will be in the best hands,” said Crane. “It's really exciting because the horse can really run and it's been obvious for a long time.”

Out of the Forestry mare Shawnee Moon, the Feb. 9 foal caught the eye with a :10 flat breeze last Friday.

“My horse's stride was huge and he did it beautifully,” explained Crane. “But he has been that way that way all winter. Every breeze that he has done had been fabulous. I was just fortunate to be a spoke in the wheel with him.”

A full-brother to GISP Giuseppe the Great, who earned over $500,000 on the racetrack, the juvenile is from the extended family of champions Storm Bird and Northernette.

“The breeze was really over-the-top good,” said West Point's Terry Finley. “These consignors get better every year–you see several sub-:10 times. It's crazy that when you see a :10 flat breeze, you need to really investigate it. But he just did it really well.”

Bred by Buck Pond Farm, the colt was an $80,000 purchase for the partnership of Keep The Ball Rollin at Keeneland last September.

“The Keep The Ball Rollin partnership is with a couple of investors who I can't thank enough for sticking with me through thick smoke and sunny skies,” said Crane of his longtime partners and clients.

Underscoring the seller/buyer connection, Finley made it plainly clear that his respect for Crane and the former jockey and national rodeo champion's horsemanship played a big part of the purchase of the colt.

“He is the type of person that gives you hope for the future because he's such a quality guy,” extolled Finley. “He took as big as a gut punch that anyone can take when he lost all those horses. He just made the best of it.”

He added, “I have the utmost confidence in Clovis when he said he liked this horse all along.”

In addition to Crane, Coolmore's Lookin At Lucky also enjoyed a breakout sale. The two-time champion and Classic winner was represented by a $700,000 colt (Hip 570) sold to Repole Stable on Day 2 of the Spring sale.

In 2022, the sire's top priced juvenile realized $125,000, and he rounded out the season with a juvenile average of $34,714 for 14 head sold. He stands for $10,000 in 2023.

“We always liked him,” said Finley of the son of Smart Strike. “We always thought he punched above his weight. He's had some really good horses [incl. BC Classic hero Accelerate and Kentucky Derby winner Country House]. He's kept at it and people still support him. And most importantly, he produces racehorses. That's what you want.”

Finley continued, “He is the type of sire that really makes this game go. They can't all be $100,000-plus stud fees, you have to have some of those stallions that give people a really good chance to get a really good horse at the sale or on the racetrack [at a reasonable price].”

Added Crane, “No one would have expected Lookin At Lucky to have a breakout year at the sales this year, but all the horses by him that sold well worked lights out.”

Overall, Crane, who brought six head to OBS Spring this year, encountered a mixed bag with his operation's results.

“One horse didn't breeze very well and the owner decided to take him to the races,” he said. “We sold three and one RNA'd.”

In regard to the single RNA, a filly by Kantharos, he added, “I'm not positive why [Hip 619] didn't have more action, honestly. She could have breezed a little better, but she is a nice filly. But that's the way the market has been playing.”

Following the all hits and misses, Crane admits that this week's OBS sale marked a turning point for the operation.

“We lost quite a bit in the barn fire,” he said. “And it's the first time we are coming out with a breath of fresh air.”–@CBossTDN

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Toys for Tots collects and distributes new, unwrapped toys to local children in need each holiday season. There will be several ways to contribute during the weekend of giving–at donation boxes at the Turf and Field entrance, the Clubhouse lobby by the escalator at Aqueduct, and online as well.

Online donations are accepted by clicking here and using a credit card or by selecting and donating toys through the organization's virtual toy box. You can also give with a check made out to “Marine Corps Reserve Toys for Tots Foundation” and mailed to: U.S. Marine Corps; Attention: GySgt, John Sardine; 605 Stewart Avenue; Garden City, N.Y. 11530.

“Ensuring that needy children throughout New York City and across Long Island get to enjoy the holidays always makes this weekend of giving extra special,” said Pat McKenna, NYRA's Vice President, Communications. “Racing fans have been generous in the past and we look forward to their continued and heartfelt commitment to our community.”

As part of its support of the Marine Corps Reserve Toys for Tots Foundation, NYRA is making a financial contribution to the organization.

“NYTHA salutes the Marine Corps Reserve Toys for Tots Foundation and their efforts in getting toys to underprivileged children in the area,” said NYTHA President Joe Appelbaum. “Our horsemen take a lot of pride in supporting these children and making sure they can enjoy a great holiday.”

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“This is a fascinating time for the racing industry in New York,” Kizenko said. “NYTHA's core missions of benevolence, equine welfare, and safeguarding the interests of its members are vital to me. I have been involved in many facets of racing, and am thrilled to have this opportunity to ensure its future growth.”

“We are very excited to have Marie join us here at NYTHA,” NYTHA President Joe Appelbaum said. “Her industry knowledge is well-rounded, and she is able to offer a unique perspective as someone who has worked in journalism and publicity as well as a racing office.”

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Called StrideSAFE, the biometric sensor mechanism slips into the saddle cloth and works like a traffic light signal, providing a green for all-clear, an amber for possible warning (light amber better than dark amber), and a red for possible danger.

The ultimate aim of StrideSAFE–a focus of discussion during the recent Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation Welfare and Safety of the Racehorse Summit–is to detect soundness problems undetectable to the naked eye before they turn potentially catastrophic. Nearly 6,500 races later, the results are in.

Of the 20 horses that suffered fatal musculoskeletal injuries during the period of the trial, 17 of them had received a red rating in a race before suffering a catastrophic breakdown. One of the 20 had received a prior dark amber rating.

Crucially, these red and dark amber ratings were issued in either the race immediately prior to the breakdown or else two or three races back.

Just from the results of this study, therefore, the StrideSAFE technology detected 90% of those horses that suffered a catastrophic injury, sometimes weeks or even months in advance.

“This is obviously a very important group for the trainers to be on top of,” said Dr. David Lambert, founder of StrideSAFE.

Which leads to the next step along the path–a comprehensive program to first identify and then properly manage and diagnose the most at-risk horses.

That's because the 17 horses fatally injured which had received a red rating in prior races were among hundreds of horses red flagged throughout the trial.

While some of these flagged horses are at higher risk of suffering a catastrophic breakdown, others are also more likely to suffer a non-lethal career-ending injury, while some are just slow or ill-disposed to trying, said Lambert. The trick will be to quickly and accurately identify each.

“At this point last year, we were just observing trying to figure out what this all means. Now we know enough to say that a [cautionary] alert means you've got to get the horse looked at,” said Dr. Scott Palmer, equine medical director for the New York State Gaming Commission, about a new trainer email alert system to be unveiled at Saratoga.

“That means we're not just going to look what happens anymore,” Palmer added.

Sarah Andrew

What is StrideSAFE?

This wireless iPhone-shaped device fits snugly into the saddle towel, and eight hundred times a second, it takes an assortment of measurements to capture in minute detail the movement of the horse at high speed.

These measurements include the horse's acceleration and deceleration, the up-and-down concussive movement of the horse, and its medial-lateral motion–what is, in other words, the horse's movement from side to side.

Ultimately, the sensors capture the sorts of high-speed lameness invisible to the naked eye but significant enough to cause major musculoskeletal failures at some point down the line–unless, of course, someone intervenes on the horse's behalf first.

To understand exactly how StrideSAFE identifies almost imperceptible signs of lameness, it helps to break a single stride into three distinct stages.

In the first phase of the gallop, the hindlimbs load and propel the horse forward. In the second, the horse shifts its weight toward the front, its forelimbs acting like shock absorbers. This is followed by the lynchpin of the equation: A period of suspension, a mere fraction of a second, when the horse is entirely airborne.

If that horse is suffering a physical ailment or injury, it cannot adjust its body to compensate when its feet are grounded. It can only do this in midair, rotating its spine and pelvis in preparation for a more comfortable landing.

Imagine a racecar hurtling along at high speed, one of its bolts working loose.

“The horse does all kinds of things in the air, twisting and shaking and moving,” Lambert had previously explained to the TDN.

Which leads to the next important question: How are the red, amber and green ratings calculated?

While some 151 subtle variables are measured within each stride, only 15 are vital to highlight the important differences between individual horses, said Lambert.

Put together, they create a basic standard running from 0 (which is the safest green rating) to greater than eight (which is at the red-hot end of the spectrum) against which all horses can be compared.

At the highest end of that spectrum–a standard deviation greater than eight–the findings were remarkable. Horses awarded this rating in a prior race were more than 50% likely to suffer a fatal injury in a subsequent race or breeze.

More broadly, of the 6,458 individual runs in the NYRA study, 74.5% were rated green, 6.6% were rated light amber, 5.5% were rated dark amber and 13.4% were rated red.

This means that 865 horses were red flagged–a relatively small percentage of the overall runners.

But given how these horses aren't visibly lame–and as such, are tough to diagnose if harboring an underlying physical issue–that's still a lot of horses to sift through in order to identify the few most likely to breakdown.

Sarah Andrew

Lambert developed this technology with Mikael Holmstroem, a Swedish Ph.D. with expertise in equine conformation and locomotion, and Kevin Donohue, Ph.D., professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Kentucky.

And so, Lambert and this team tweaked the algorithm to identify the most at-risk horses and shave off the horses in less immediate danger. In doing so, they zeroed in on 7.4% of the population.

“You find the pattern and then you direct the modeling,” explained Lambert. “And when we did that, we found that 40% improvement and got us down to around 7% without missing any of the [fatally injured horses].”

That's not to say the other red-flagged horses should be ignored, for the study proves how physical deterioration leading up to a catastrophic musculoskeletal injury is typically a long degenerative process over weeks and even months.

This tallies up with the scientific literature on fatal breakdowns which shows just how frequently pre-existing lesions appear at the actual site of the injury.

“This is not a case of them being sound one moment and broken the next. This process is a continuum,” said Lambert. “It's not reliable as a soundness screen,” he added, “it's intended as a breakdown screen.”

Of all the horses that received a green rating during the NYRA study, 77% were racing again in less than 60 days, and 85% were racing again in less than 120 days.

That same study hasn't yet been done for red-flagged horses, says Lambert. But an analysis at the start of the program found that only about 40% of the horses that had a red classification were able to race at all over the next four months after the analyzed race.

This means that once a horse has received a cautionary flag, there needs to be a process in place to funnel it toward the right tool to diagnose the brewing issue.

“The analogy is the check engine light in your car,” said Palmer, agreeing with Lambert. “When that check engine light goes on, what does it mean? It means you've got to get someone to check your car.”

Sarah Andrew

According to Palmer, he and the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association (NYTHA) have recently launched a new system at Saratoga whereby the trainer of a horse given a cautionary flag in a race subsequently receives an email alert, or what is coined an “advisory letter.”

“A [cautionary] alert is not a 'Scarlet Letter'–it does not mean [the horse is] going to die or it's going to get a fracture,” said Palmer, about what such an email means. “The gist of it is, you need to get the horse examined by a veterinarian. That's the bottom line.”

Because StrideSAFE can detect lameness not visible to the naked eye, some of the brewing problems will only be detected using some of the more sensitive diagnostic technologies that are making their way onto the marketplace–but not always.

“Some of them [veterinarians and trainers] are going to be able to find something using flexion tests and usual diagnostic exams, hoof testers,” said Palmer. “These are not the sorts of things that are ordinarily done to a horse every day.”

Nevertheless, Palmer stresses that in the majority of cases, the added veterinary scrutiny will result in a diagnostic thumbs-up, calling it a “not one-size-fits-all” scenario.

“If it's a minor problem, the horse can get some time off, come back and everything's fine,” he said. “In some cases, I fully expect that we'll find nothing, and the horse will be able to go right back and race again.”

Given the work that lies ahead, NYTHA President Joe Appelbaum turned to a baseball analogy, describing the program at first or second innings.

“This is great,” said Appelbaum. “But we need as wide-ranging data set as we can find. We need to share that data and research it hard. We're at the beginning of this game, not the end.”

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“She looks absolutely great coming into the sale and is probably our best yearling on the farm,” Town and Country's Chief Executive Officer Shannon Potter said of the yearling, who is catalogued as hip 165 at the two-day boutique auction. “We are really optimistic about what could happen in Saratoga.”

Newgate and the yearling filly are out of Majestic Presence (Majestic Warrior), who was third in the 2014 GIII Delta Downs Princess S. She was purchased by Town and Country while in foal to Runhappy for $360,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale.

“She was a big, pretty mare,” Potter said of Majestic Presence's appeal. “When I say pretty, she was really pretty. She was 16.1, she was nice and correct. She had a little bit of race record under her. She had everything that I was looking for and in that price range, she just fit all of those things. And she had a decent pedigree at the time. But now everything is filling in and coming together.”

A half-sister to graded winner Victress (Include) and to the dam of 2019 GII Summertime Oaks winner My Majestic Rose (Majestic Warrior), Majestic Presence has done nothing but impress Potter since joining the Town and Country broodmare band of some 30 head five years ago.

“Majestic Presence puts a really good foal on the ground every year,” Potter said. “I can't say enough about her, because whatever you breed her to, it always comes out looking really well.”

The mare's Runhappy colt sold for $230,000 at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale and her Candy Ride (Arg) colt–who sold for $250,000 at the 2020 Keeneland September sale–just romped home an 8 1/2-length winner in his second start in a $20,000 maiden claimer at Saratoga July 15.

Newgate, the mare's third foal, was special from the start, according to Potter.

“He was just outstanding from the get-go and a very good foal,” Potter said. “By the time he was a yearling, he checked everybody's boxes as far as what you were looking for at the yearling sales.”

Sent off the prohibitive 1-2 favorite after plenty of pre-race hype, Newgate was no surprise while making his debut for the Bob Baffert barn last week.

“He was very, very impressive,” Potter said of the debut effort. “When [SF Bloodstock's] Tom Ryan and [Starlight Racing's] Jack Wolf and the gang got him, we were super excited that he was in their possession and we knew he was going to go to a top-class trainer. We were really high on that horse going into the race because we had heard so much from those guys and other people who thought that he was one of the top horses in Baffert's string–and we all know how many he has in his string.”

Majestic Presence has a weanling filly by Into Mischief's GI Kentucky Derby-winning son Authentic, “who is really good,” according to Potter. “We are just going to cross our fingers and put a little bubble wrap around her.”

The 10-year-old mare was bred back to champion and first-year sire Essential Quality.

“She has been bred to Into Mischief quite a few times and I was trying to breed her to something fresh and young,” Potter said of the mating decision. “And I really like Essential Quality. I thought most of the stuff that he has or maybe doesn't have, she would add to and we were just trying to totally freshen her up with a young stallion, and a promising young stallion at that.”

Through the Taylor Made Sales Agency consignment, Town and Country will offer three yearlings at next week's Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale. The operation will be represented by hip 23, a colt by Candy Ride (Arg) who was co-bred with Off The Hook. Out of Mighty Eros (Freud), the yearling is a half-brother to graded winner and Grade I placed Faypien (Ghostzapper).

“[Off the Hook's] Joe Appelbaum and I are really good friends,” Potter said. “And we've done this back-to-back. He has a really good mare, so we took a shot and did that together. And this is as good a Candy Ride as I've seen. He is totally not your typical Candy Ride. He is very big, he has really nice feet on him and he just looks like a classic two-turn type of horse.”

Hip 48 is a filly by Medaglia d'Oro out of group winner Pretty Perfect (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), a mare Town and Country purchased for $1.125 million at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

“She is not your typical Medaglia d'Oro filly,” Potter said. “She has a lot of bone and a lot substance, body and hip and all of that. She has a wonderful walk to her. She is just going to be a nice pick up there for an end user, I would think.”

Potter has high hopes for the trio in Saratoga.

“Martin [Deanda], our yearling guy, and all the guys in our yearlings barn have done a really good job of prepping them and getting these three horses ready at the farm,” Potter said.

Fasig-Tipton got the yearling auction season off to a strong start with its July sale last month and Potter hopes that trend continues in Saratoga.

“If you look at July, it was good,” he said. “I am thinking it will be close to the same [at Saratoga]. I guess we will have to wait and see. But we are optimistic about where the business is right now and what is going on. So hopefully it will still stay strong.”

The Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale will be held next Monday and Tuesday at the Humphrey S. Finney Pavilion. Each session begins at 6:30 p.m.

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