This means these horses passed before the eyes of a slew of experts–from the riders to the trainers to the veterinarians and the regulators–deemed among the best in the business. If they can't single out these horses before catastrophe happens, who can?

As the science around racehorse injury has evolved, the notion of a random “bad step” as the cause of catastrophic breakdowns has been largely debunked. Much cited since, a California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) led study from between 2011 and 2013 found that roughly 90% of Thoroughbreds that suffered catastrophic musculoskeletal injuries had pre-existing bone lesions near or at the site of the fracture.

The problem is, these lesions–abnormalities of the bone as it undergoes remodelling leaving that part of the skeleton vulnerable to fracture–can be a clinical nightmare to detect through the usual means. Think X-rays, nuclear scintigraphy, or just jogging the horse up and down a flat path. So, what to do?

Catastrophic injuries don't just happen overnight. The pathology underlying these events can occur over weeks, if not months, leading up to the fracture. Perversely, this is good news. There's a window for intervention, opening the door to a new breed of screening tools.

Much focus these past couple of years has been placed on a biometric sensor called StrideSAFE, which appears able to identify that small percentage of at-risk horses who are sound to the human eye. The New York State Gaming Commission equine medical director has called it “probably one of the most important contributions to the Thoroughbred horse industry that has ever been made.”

What's more, a new wave of imaging technologies are proving capable of diagnosing the underlying cause of these problems much earlier than ever before. Some of the industry's brightest minds say the trick to substantially reducing equine fatalities will be to standardize the combined use of these screening and diagnostic tools, bringing much needed objectivity to what–in identifying lameness–is all too often an exercise in subjectivity.

Easier said than done.

Logistical hurdles, significant costs and legitimate concerns about exactly how all this new information will be used present no small set of obstacles. But the imperative is clear, warn various industry leaders: If the sport doesn't act on these tools that it has at its disposal–and act quickly–racing could all too soon become an anachronism.

“This is the new frontier of racehorse safety,” said Jeff Blea, CHRB equine medical director. As an example, he highlighted Sleip, a smartphone app that has potential to work as a lameness diagnostic tool.

“StrideSAFE is the best screening tool we've ever had–clearly it's a lot more effective than the human eye,” said Warwick Bayly, professor of equine medicine in the department of Veterinary Clinical Sciences at Washington State University.

When it comes to integrating such screening tools into the daily furniture of the industry, Bayly was adamant. “We've got to do this.”

Positron Emission Tomography (MILE-PET) unit | courtesy Mathieu Spriet

“We cannot scan all horses to identify those four percent”

“It's got to the point where now it's more than a diagnostic tool,” said Mathieu Spriet, of the Positron Emission Tomography (MILE-PET) unit. “It is helpful as a clearance to race. It can help the regulatory vet by not scratching unnecessary horses. And it can help individual horses.”

The portable PET unit is the brainchild of Spriet, and has been a part of the diagnostic scene at Santa Anita since the end of 2019. Since then, nine other PET units have been distributed to Florida, Kentucky and Pennsylvania. In about one month, the University of Melbourne is scheduled to join the list.

In its relatively short life-span, evidence strongly suggests that the PET unit is especially useful in diagnosing the sorts of fetlock injuries–those actively brewing in the sesamoid bones, and the distal region of the cannon bone immediately above the fetlock–earlier and with greater accuracy than has been the case with more established imaging technologies.

Why is this important? The fetlock has long been the Thoroughbred racehorse's Achilles heel. Fetlock failures constituted in California nearly 60% of all musculoskeletal injuries that proved fatal during the 2018-2019 fiscal year.

In this study, a team of experts examined the results of 33 horses imaged using both PET and nuclear scintigraphy. The researchers agreed on the results for the PET more frequently than for nuclear scintigraphy. Indeed, they detected potential sesamoid bone problems in 22.2% of limbs imaged with PET, but only 6.9% of limbs imaged with scintigraphy.

In another study of 25 racehorses, 88% of the PET scans performed six weeks apart identified the same problem areas in the fetlock, demonstrating the technology's reliability. In all, 65% of the fetlocks examined demonstrated improvement during a 12-week rest period from racing.

But when it comes to the bête noire of horse racing–those at-risk runners who show no clinical signs of lameness–the study with perhaps the most significance concerns the 72 “normal” horses chosen to undergo PET scans of all four fetlocks at Golden Gate Fields, Santa Anita and Fair Hill.

Three of the 72 horses were laid up as a result of what showed up on the scans, while about 20% of the horses examined saw their training schedules modified to manage small underlying issues.

“We had one horse that potentially needed surgery,” said Spriet, of one of the three ostensibly “normal” horses found to have major underlying issues. “We know that there are some horses out there, clinically they are fine, but unfortunately they do break down.”

As Ryan Carpenter, a private SoCal-based veterinarian and a habitual user of PET, puts it, “I don't think there's any modality that's superior to PET when it comes to identifying problems in the sesamoid bones early.”

But what about other vulnerable parts of the racehorse's skeleton?

The same year Santa Anita welcomed the bespoke PET unit, it opened its doors to a standing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) unit–a large, enclosed cell with dimensions of 10′ x 10′ x 30′.

MRI units, explained Carpenter, are especially adept at identifying issues in the lower ends (the condyles) of the cannon bone, including palmer osteochondral disease (POD), an all-too common degenerative bone problem in racehorses. “There's nothing better for POD than MRI,” he said.

For other notoriously vulnerable regions of the racehorse skeleton–like the shoulder region and the pelvis–Carpenter said that nuclear scintigraphy remains the go-to imaging modality.

There are drawbacks to MRI and PET. One is cost. A new PET unit will set you back some $600,000. Standing MRIs are typically leased from the manufacturer. According to Carpenter, the cost of scanning both front ankles with either PET or MRI is about $1,200.

Another is logistical. It takes between 45 minutes to an hour to scan both fetlocks with MRI.

“The knock on PET is that it requires a horse to go into an isolation period while it eliminates the radioactive isotope,” said Carpenter. The isolation time is about eight hours. “Here, they usually go over to the hospital for a PET at about five o'clock in the morning and they usually go back to the barn around two in the afternoon.”

Which leads to another imaging tool, computerized tomography (CT). Indeed, Racing Victoria requires all international horses that race there, including Melbourne Cup nominees, to undergo CT scans.

“The biggest benefit of the CT is what? It's fast. You can CT an ankle in 17 seconds. And there is no holding period,” said Carpenter.

But CT also has its drawbacks. It has yet to prove itself accurate at pinpointing the more worrying active bone remodeling as early as PET and MRI, said Carpenter. That said, CT offers promise for a diagnostic learning curve, he added.

“I'm hopeful that with CT we can eventually pick up the change in pixels in the location of the bone change before fracturing,” said Carpenter. “If you can make that true, you can scan all four fetlocks, use radiomics to look for changes in pixel density, and do what we're doing now with PET but in a fraction of the time.”

Given his experiences over the past few years, is Carpenter surprised by the results of the PET study that found 4% of 72 clinically sound horses had injuries that required them to be rested for an extended period?

“I'm not surprised at all,” said Carpenter. “We know those horses exist. Our hardest struggle as clinicians is determining which horses they are.”

Given the costs and logistical difficulties associated with PET and MRI, however, “we cannot scan all horses to identify those four percent,” admitted Spriet. “It's just not practical.”

But what if there was another way to objectively sift through the population to identify that small percentage of at-risk horses? Dave Lambert, founder of StrideSAFE, believes he's got the answer.

This scan image is from a fetlock with a severe sesamoid injury. 3D MIP is “maximal intensity projection,” which is a true 3D rendering.

“This is exactly how the system was designed to work”

StrideSAFE is a discreet bio-metric sensor used on horses working or racing to capture a variety of measurements related to the horse's acceleration and deceleration, its up and down concussive movement, and its medial-lateral motion. In other words, the horse's movement from side to side.

In short, StrideSAFE has proven capable of detecting the sorts of subtle abnormalities in gait even the most seasoned trainers, veterinarians and exercise riders miss when watching horses jog up and down a path, or when taking them through their paces.

StrideSAFE originally worked on a traffic light system, with a green for all-clear, a yellow for caution, and a red for possible danger.

In a long-term study conducted on horses racing at New York Racing Association (NYRA) tracks, of the 20 horses that suffered fatal musculoskeletal injuries during the period of the trial, 18 of them had received a red rating in a race before suffering a catastrophic breakdown, said Lambert. One of the 20 had received a prior dark amber rating.

These red and dark amber ratings were issued in either the race immediately prior to the breakdown or else two or three races back, said Lambert, meaning StrideSAFE detected 90% of those horses that suffered a catastrophic injury sometimes weeks or even months in advance.

In total, about 15% of the horses involved in the study were red-flagged, said Lambert. Given how at that time there was still much to learn about StrideSAFE's efficacy, there was no coordinated system to funnel those red-flagged horses for follow-up diagnostics.

Since then, Lambert and his team have refined the system to what he calls a “risk factor calculation” from one to five. Five is the category in which a horse is most at risk of a fatal or career ending injury–nearly 300 times more likely than horses that fall within risk category one. In all, 73% of the horses fell within category one, the safest group.

David Lambert & trainer Dale Romans | StrideSAFE

Using data from the same 6,616 individual starts in the NYRA study, Lambert determined that about 5% of the horses studied–a number totaling 363 horses–fell within the risk category of five. That includes the same 20 horses that suffered catastrophic injuries, 18 of which were red-flagged in prior races.

If the other two fatally injured horses had worn StrideSAFE in high-speed workouts between races, would the sensor have picked up a problem? “We don't know for sure,” said Lambert. “But there's a good chance it would have.”

Interestingly, Lambert said that in general, the red-flagged horses raced back quicker than horses in safer categories. “These horses are sound and they're ready to race,” he said, “but they're sitting on a fracture.”

Earlier this year, StrideSAFE was used on horses racing at Churchill Downs's short Spring meet. All eight horses that suffered a fatal race-day musculoskeletal injury were carrying the technology.

Seven of the eight musculoskeletal cases showed abnormal sensor readings as soon as they left the starting gate, prompting Lambert to subsequently remark that “had the sensors been on the horses in prior races, they could have pointed to an issue the horse was having weeks or even months earlier.”

Unlike the NYRA study, at Churchill Downs there was a more coordinated system for following up with the trainers of flagged horses. StrideSAFE flagged two visibly sound horses that were subsequently sent for PET scans, revealing the beginnings of condylar fractures.

“This is exactly how the system was designed to work,” explained Lambert. “Screen every horse in a race, detect those at high risk, diagnose using modern technology and bring about a cure rather than suffer a fatality.”

But not every horse that's categorized as being at highest risk of injury harbors an underlying issue. And so, to refine the system even further–iron out the kinks–what would be the best application of StrideSAFE?

“If every horse in training wears it,” said Will Farmer, equine medical director for Churchill Downs.

“If every horse had this for every high-speed work and in every race, I think that would be the ultimate goal,” Farmer added. “Anytime that a horse reaches a high speed, and they have a sensor on their back, we would have such a complete picture, there would be multiple opportunities for veterinary intervention.”

A Steve Asmussen-trained worker equipped with StrideSafe | Holly Smith

The results from StrideSAFE present an interesting parallel with a recent study out of Tasmania, which found that horses will decrease their stride length in the weeks leading up to an injury.

Back in 2010, Tasracing partnered with Stridemaster, which had developed a biometric sensor technology, to provide a race-day timing system using GPS and motion sensor data. The original purpose was to provide information to share with the betting public.

“We said, 'hey, that looks like great data. Can we get a hold of it?'” said Chris Whitton, professor of equine medicine and surgery and head of the Equine Centre at the University of Melbourne.

Whitton and his fellow researchers reviewed the data from 584 different horses who made 5660 individual starts. They found a “marked rate of decline” in speed and stride length roughly six races prior to injury.

Going into the study, “I would have thought it was one or two races that they would start showing effects,” said Whitton. “Such a long period I thought was fascinating.”

The researchers also found that horses are especially vulnerable to injury early in their racing career. “The first and second race of a horse's career is actually quite a high risk,” said Whitton.

The Heart of the Problem

Fractured bones don't constitute the only cause of lost equine life on the track.

Though fairly rare, sudden cardiac deaths occur at a rate of one for every 8,789 starts racing, and one death for every 158,000 Thoroughbred training days, according to this CHRB report. But what exactly causes these events largely remains a matter of debate.

This well-considered study looked at post-mortem findings from 268 Thoroughbred racehorses that suffered exercise-related sudden deaths. Pathologists made a definite diagnosis in only 53% of cases, a presumptive diagnosis in 25% cases, while 22% of cases were left unexplained.

Which leads to another biometric sensor technology finding its niche in the sport from a company called Arioneo.

“In total, we are working globally with about 600 trainers and vets,” said Valentin Rapin, Arioneo's managing director. “In the U.S. it's really the beginning for us. We're working with about 40 trainers at the moment.”

Like StrideSAFE, Arionoe's Equimetre fits onto the horse's tack during exercise, sending information back to the user, who can view it on a user-friendly computer dashboard. Part of that data concerns the horse's stride length and stride frequency at all gaits, from walk to trot to gallop and workout.

But Arioneo's Equimetre–which costs about $190 a month per device–also monitors heart-rate, providing data that can be used to assess both performance and overall health, including whether the horse is experiencing physical pain or discomfort, said Rapin.

“We can also look at the level of effort the horse is reaching during exercise. Sometimes you will see some abnormally high level of heart rate during exercise, depending on the speed the horse is going. And you can also see some abnormal recovery data,” said Rapin.

If the heart-rate monitor sends out what amounts to red flags about the horse's heart health, an ECG electrocardiogram (ECG) monitor can be used to map a more sophisticated picture of the horse's heart rate and heart rhythm, to identify any possible underlying problems like arrhythmias.

Rapin highlighted a horse in Australia routinely equipped with the monitor until one day in a workout, its heart rate spiked unusually high. A subsequent ECG analysis of the horse prompted its retirement.

Cristobal Navas De Solis, assistant professor of cardiology/ultrasound and internal medicine at the University of Pennsylvania School of Veterinary Medicine, is one of the researchers involved in an ongoing study using Equimetre on three-day-eventers during exercise.

The goal is to find out “which variables are more associated with injury or performance,” said Navas De Solis.

From a recent preliminary analysis of the first two years of data–involving 53 horses and 1,467 individual workouts–the researchers have identified several variables that appear to have some relevance on performance and injury: Heart rate and stride rate during the warm-up period, stride length at certain speeds, symmetry at trot, and heart rate recovery after a workout.

Navas De Solis sees early markers of injury as the “sport's holy grail,” and the standardization of screening tools like Arioneo and StrideSAFE in horse racing as “a big step forward in this direction.” He highlighted an Italian pre-screening program for human athletes that decreased sudden deaths by nearly 90% after implementation.

But he's also a pragmatist. To get to that stage, racing's leaders would need to agree upon a set of well-designed but probably expensive studies involving thousands of horses.

The ultimate program would be one that weeds out the most at-risk horses, and similarly ensures that perfectly healthy horses aren't excluded from competing via false positives.

“Having an arrhythmia during exercise doesn't necessarily mean that the horse or the athlete has a problem. From an arrhythmia standpoint, it's not an all or nothing. Some arrhythmias are okay during exercise and are not going to cause a problem to a horse,” Navas De Solis said.

A key question therefore, said Navas De Solis, is “how do we find the right balance between decreasing injury and not causing unjustified alarm?”

The Research Team at StrideSafe | StrideSafe

“Nothing that can't be solved”

For Farmer's vision of StrideSAFE being used on every horse that works to materialize, a key obstacle is one of logistics.

“Race days are very structured,” said Farmer, of its main use to date at Churchill Downs. “We know times. We know distance. We know horse names. We know everything we need to know days in advance.”

The organized chaos of a busy training morning–with hundreds of horses working, many simultaneously, from dozens of different barns–makes the practicalities of using StrideSAFE infinitely harder in comparison, said Farmer.

“Right now, the logistics of training are very challenging,” said Farmer. “When you collect that data, you then need to identify which horse that refers to. In the sensor design as of today, it's not geared for you to just put it on their back and go. But it's nothing that can't be solved.”

Lambert acknowledged these logistical hurdles but called it “simply a matter of money” to get fixed–at the same time, noting significant contributions already to StrideSAFE from Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale.

“The technology is all there, we even have the idea envisioned, we have planned it out in readiness,” Lambert said, adding that incorporating AI technologies to the mix could help reduce the current costs of $35 a day per horse.

These screening tools also raise other questions to grapple with. For one, who should have access to the data generated? Another is cultural–a sense among those in the industry forged on tradition and custom that these devices could unnecessarily handcuff a trainer.

“Regulations are not going to eliminate risk,” Eric Hamelback, CEO of the National Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association (HBPA), at a town hall about StrideSAFE earlier this year. “And quite frankly, we don't want regulations to eliminate horsemanship.”

Proponents of StrideSAFE and Arioneo stress the ability of these technologies to complement the art of training, not to replace it.

“It's a tool that provides objective data, and the goal at the end is to combine the expertise of the trainer–who has all the knowledge and the feeling and the expertise about the horse–with the data to make it successful,” Rapin said.

That idea taps into what Mathieu Spriet means when he talks about “voluntary longitudinal follow up” with imaging devices like PET to make doubly-sure a horse is up to the rigors of training and racing. In other words, the more horses are scanned periodically, “I think the better that is for managing the career of a specific horse,” said Spriet.

“Connections can be like, 'well, this horse is doing well. But we have a big campaign ahead of him, so let's scan and see how it goes,'” Spriet added. “To me, this is the most exciting part of it because we can see things [you ordinarily couldn't] to better manage horses throughout their careers.”

Trainer Dan Blacker is representative of the new generation of conditioner who has embraced the imaging tools in Southern California. He said he's interested in the idea of using StrideSAFE on his horses. “For sure it's got a place,” he added. “If they bring it to California, I'm very willing to support it.”

Dan Blacker | Benoit

Interestingly, The Stronach Group is working on its own screening system which uses high-definition cameras to create detailed skeletal movement maps of horses.

But in the short-term, said Blacker, PET holds the potential to be a major “gamechanger” in the fight to reduce equine fatalities due to its accuracy and simplicity of understanding.

“The thing with the PET scan, it takes away the guess work. That's the one thing I want to get across to people in racing,” Blacker said. “It gives you a clear-cut answer to the question of whether you can keep racing or not. Once trainers nationally get to see that, you're going to see a lot of improvement.”

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“Mattress Mack has always advocated for the safety of riders and horses and is one of very few who understands horse racing from the perspective of an owner, breeder, and bettor,” said Jockeys and Jeans President Barry Pearl. “We believe he will be frank and also helpful in his assessment of the current state of Thoroughbred racing.”

With over 320 tickets already sold, a limited number of seats are still available by calling 855-234-7469 or purchasing online at ticketmaster.com. Single tickets are $125; VIP tickets are $250; and nine-person tables are $1,800 and include being seated with a Hall of Fame Jockey. All proceeds go to the PDJF.

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He's great at getting publicity for himself and his stores, but never had he seen anything like what happened with this bet, the story of which became a huge hit on social media. In particular, B/R Betting, an arm of Bleacher Report, followed McIngvale from Game 1 of the World Series through the team's victory parade and captured the agony and ecstasy of each moment from someone who had $75 million at stake based on the outcome of a baseball game. Mattress Mack content amassed 75 million video views on B/R Betting, which posted the content on Twitter, Instagram and TikTok. McIngvale figures he got millions of dollars in free publicity out of the B/R Betting posts.

It just goes to show that when it comes to promoting his business and himself, McIngvale has no equal. Because of his bet and the publicity it received, McIngvale became as famous as the Astros star players. So what advice does this master promoter have for horse racing and how can it better promote itself? Those were the questions we had for Mattress Mack.

TDN: In what areas should racing focus its attention when it comes to improving the visibility of the sport?

JM: People love gambling stories. Horse racing needs to do more to play on the gambling aspect because these young kids are fascinated by it. When I went to Philly and got into that famous confrontation with some Phillies fans, which was not my finest hour, everybody up there knew me. They all know me from all the exposure I was getting with places like Bleacher Report. Horse racing needs to have more connection to young people through gambling and find ways where people can win a lot of money. Absolutely, we should promote gambling more. In Philly, everyone knew Mattress Mack and knew about my bet on the Astros. They knew me because they saw me on B/R Betting or the Action Network or whatever. What's better? Horse racing or the lottery? There's no comparison. Horse racing is a much better gambling game and they need to get the word out about that.

TDN: You won $75 million on your Astros bet. There is no way for a person to make that kind of money betting on a horse race, even at the Kentucky Derby. What's your answer to that?

JM: No, you can't make that kind of money betting on racing, but you can make racing a better product for the bettor. Do whatever it takes to get bigger fields and lower the takeout. Figure out a way to get 15- or 20-horse fields like they have in England. You do that and all of a sudden you have a different game, a better game. We see far too many races and stakes that have five-horse fields with big favorites. People don't want to bet on that. Increase the size of the fields and give people a chance to gamble on a good product. That's all people want. People are fascinated with gambling, particularly with sports betting. You've also got to lower the takeout to compete. It's 5% when I make a sports bet. In racing it's four times that.

TDN: What did you think of the decision to retire Flightline (Tapit)?

JM: You have to have superstars. Retiring Flightline. I get it. They had to make the money. But what a shame there wasn't a way to keep him around longer. Football has Tom Brady and a bunch of other high-profile players. Baseball doesn't do a good job promoting its stars, but basketball certainly does. You have to create household names and get people excited about a horse appearing here or there. To me, that's really important. They have to find a way to keep these horses running longer so they have a chance to become household names. The game has to figure out how to keep these horses around as long as they are sound because everyone wants to see a superstar. Pay them an appearance fee. Pay them money to just show up, whether they win or lose. That's one way to get horses to stay around. We need more superstars like Zenyatta, who was still running when she was six. She stuck around and built up a huge fan base.

TDN: What's your opinion of fixed-odds wagering on horse racing?

JM: Going to fixed odds would be would be outstanding. When you bet at 3-1 and the horse goes off at 4-5, that's hard to swallow. I get fixed odds on my Astro bets. Fixed odds are the way to go so that way people know what they are going to get for their money. I think fixed odds would be a great benefit because pari-mutuel betting is too complicated for the average person out there.

TDN: What are some of the problems you see with horse racing as it is now?

JM: No. 1, it has to be more transparent. The optics on horse racing are not good when these guys get slapped on the wrist for these drug positives. That's horrible. You can't have people thinking a horse won because it was drugged. We've also got to do more to keep these horses safe. They've got to improve the technology. Dr. [David] Lambert has this device you can put on the horse and it tells you when it's going to red line and something is going to pop. That needs to be done in workouts and when they race and it needs to be done everywhere. When those horses red line and are about to pop they need to stop on those horses. All that stuff is doable. Dr. Lambert and I are working on what we call the Runhappy Wellness program. We want to get the racetracks to put these monitors on the horses so they can tell when something is going to go wrong. They monitor the baseball players and they monitor football players, so why can't we monitor these horses and make it as transparent as possible? The more transparent the better.

TDN: What are other sports doing right that racing isn't?

JM: Take a look at F1 (Formula 1 racing). F1 came to Austin, where my daughter runs a restaurant for us. They had the biggest two days in their history while F1 was in town. Five years ago, F1 was nothing. I asked a sports marketing friend of mine, how did F1 go from nothing to something, from the bottom of the heap to the top? It all comes down to a deal they did with Netflix. They told the story of F1 on Netflix and look what happened. It has turned into one of the hottest sports in the world. Racing needs to come up with some creative ideas like that. If F1 can do it, why can't horse racing?

TDN: Tell us about your experience with B/R Betting.

JM: It was incredible. Those guys do a great job. The guys from Bleacher Report followed me the whole time during the World Series. We also have our own social media team that runs our sports website, Gallerysports.com. The amount of hits was just incredible. They know how to make this work. You put something on TikTok and it blows up exponentially. It's just unbelievable. People like to see the agony and ecstasy of the big bet. They loved the story.

TDN: Your bet on the Astros was tied into a promotion you do at your stores, where people got mattresses for free if the Astros won the World Series. You had to give away an awful lot of mattresses. Did you come out ahead?

JM: I won $75 million and we sold over $70 million in mattresses. It's the greatest promotion ever. After the Astros beat the Yankees, that Sunday was biggest day we've had in 43 years. The following day, Monday, which was a non-holiday Monday, we did 25% more than that. I had to cut the promotion off because I had reached the max in insurance money, which is what I call my bets. I was filled up to capacity. If I had kept going through the World Series, we would have sold another $40 million worth of mattresses. I got $100 million worth of publicity off this Astros bet. The brand awareness of my business increased tenfold in the last two weeks. When I was on that victory parade with the Astros players going through downtown Houston, people were chanting 'Mattress Mack, Mattress Mack.' There were two million people there. How the else do you achieve something like that?

TDN: Are you optimistic about the future of racing?

JM: Yes, because there is so much opportunity to make things better.

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After a string of losers, McIngale won $8.8 million earlier this month betting on Kansas to win the NCAA basketball championship.

With his previous bets, customers only qualified if they bought mattresses. This year, McIngvale has added other types of furniture to the promotion, the reason why he will exceed the amount he bet last year.

“I am going to have some fun and gamble a bit,” he said. “This should be a fun Kentucky Derby.”

McIngvale said the entire bet will be made on-track at Churchill Downs. That guarantees that the highest percentage possible will go back to purses.

“I'll be at Churchill all day,” he said. “It's very important to bet on track so the most money goes back to the Kentucky horsemen. I am a Kentucky horseman, so I don't making racing bets offshore or in Nevada. I always bet on track so the track can make the most money and can give back the most money to horsemen in purses.”

In the weeks leading up to the 2021 Derby, McIngvale knew who he was going to bet on. Essential Quality was an obvious favorite and went off at odds of 2.90-1. He finished fourth. It's a different Derby this year with no clear-cut favorite. The longest price for a favorite in Derby history was 6.30-1, the price on Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike) in the 2010 Derby. This year's favorite could drift into the 5-1, 6-1 area.

“To have that high of a price on the favorite is great for someone like me,” McIngvale said. “I'm used to hedging off these sports bets where my odds might be $1.50 against $1. If the favorite is 4-1 or 5-1 that's a tremendous buffer when it comes to having to pay back the customers if the horse wins. Last year, I bet almost $25% of the total win amount on the favorite. This is a wide open year. It's a good opportunity for the promotion, to get the favorite at a good price and get a good return if the favorite wins. It's good odds for the customers.”

Understanding that his win bet alone could greatly deflate the price on the favorite, McIngvale said he will spread some of the money out in the exacta pool, using all other 19 starters on top of the favorite.

But who will be the lowest priced horse in the Derby field? With no clear answer to that question, it's possible that the role of who will be the favorite may not be decided until a few minutes to post. What then?

“Who will be the favorite? That's the $64,000 question,” McIngvale said. “I'll take a look at the Oaks-Derby daily double and use that as a guide. A lot of the sharper money is in that pool. Throughout the day, I'll be feeding money in on the horse I believe will be the favorite. I just have to make sure I am on the favorite when the bell goes off and they leave the starting gate.”

McIngvale will have mixed feelings if the favorite wins the Derby because that will mean that Smile Happy (Runhappy) did not win. McIngvale has promoted Runhappy non-stop since he entered stud and knows that if he adds a Derby winner to his credentials it would boost his value as a sire. When asked who he will be rooting for if Smile Happy, who figures to be seventh or eighth choice in the betting, and the Derby favorite hook up in the stretch, McIngvale said “a dead-heat.”

“I could just put all the money on Smile Happy and that might make him the favorite,” McIngvale said. “I have a fiduciary responsibility to the customers to bet on the favorite. It wouldn't be the best deal for them if I bet on Smile Happy.”

As a side bet, McIngvale said he will be betting between $50,000 and $200,000 to win on Smile Happy.

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Smile Happy, the 3 ¼-length winner of Saturday's $400,000 Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., had his odds drop from 15-1 to 9-1 around 5 p.m. ET when Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, the Houston furniture store owner who campaigned Smile Happy's sire Runhappy, bet $10,000 to win on the Kentucky-bred colt who is unbeaten in two starts. Additional money flowed late until the 6 p.m. ET deadline and his odds closed at 8-1.

Jack Christopher, the impressive G1 Champagne winner for trainer Chad Brown who was expected to be the $2 million G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile favorite before he was scratched, is expected to resume training in early 2022 following surgery to heal a left shin stress fracture.

Other horses who attracted mild interest from bettors: Breeders' Futurity winner Rattle N Roll (21-1); G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and G1 American Pharoah runner-up Pappacap (23-1); G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up Tiz the Bomb (24-1); and G1 Hopeful winner Gunite (25-1).

Horses in order of the public's betting choice (with trainer, Pool 1 odds and $2 Win Will Pays): #24 All Other Colts and Geldings from the 2019 Foal Crop (3-5, $3.40); #18 Smile Happy (Kenny McPeek, Runhappy, 8-1, $19.20); #11 Jack Christopher (Chad Brown, Munnings, 10-1, $23.20); #17 Rattle N Roll (Kenny McPeek, Connect, 21-1, $45.80); #16 Pappacap (Mark Casse, Gun Runner, 23-1, $49.40); #19 Tiz the Bomb (Kenny McPeek, Hit It a Bomb, 24-1, $51); #9 Gunite (Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner, 25-1, $53.80); #3 Commandperformance (Todd Pletcher, Union Rags, 31-1, $64.80); #7 Giant Game (Dale Romans, Giant's Causeway, 37-1, $77.40); #13 Mo Donegal (Todd Pletcher, Uncle Mo, 37-1, $77.60); #23 All Fillies from the 2019 Foal Crop (41-1, $85.20); #12 Major General (Todd Pletcher, Constitution, 43-1, $88.60); #10 Howling Time (Dale Romans, Not This Time, 43-1, $89.60); #2 Classic Causeway (Brian Lynch, Giant's Causeway, 44-1, $90.20); #5 Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, Not This Time, 52-1, $106.80); #21 Varatti (Todd Pletcher, Into Mischief, 54-1, $111.80); #22 Zandon (Chad Brown, Upstart, 56-1, $114.40); #1 Ben Diesel (Dallas Stewart, Will Take Charge, 66-1, $134.20); #4 Double Thunder (Todd Pletcher, Super Saver, 72-1, $147); #15 Oviatt Class (Keith Desormeaux, Bernardini, 87-1, $177.20); #20 Trafalgar (Al Stall Jr., Lord Nelson, 98-1, $198.80); #8 Graphic Detail (Bill Mott, Practical Joke, 133-1, $269); #6 Forced Ranking (Chad Brown, Mastery, 138-1, $279.80); and #14 Osbourne (Ron Moquett, Tapiture, 155-1, $312.80).

Total handle for the Nov. 25-28 KDFW pool – the first of five scheduled wagering pools in advance of the 148th running of the G1 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve on Saturday, May 7 – was $326,448 ($263,008 in the Win pool and $63,440 in Exactas), up 30.9% from last year's $249,331 ($191,984 in the Win Pool and $57,347 in Exactas).

Inaugurated in 1999, the Kentucky Derby Future Wager has been offered for a 24th consecutive year, but this marks just the ninth time that Churchill Downs has hosted a KDFW pool on closing weekend of its Fall Meet.

This year's early Derby betting menu also included the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager, which, for the seventh consecutive year, provided bettors with a unique opportunity to wager on select breeding stars and their entire crop of juveniles with the hope of winning next year's Kentucky Derby.

“All Other Sires” at 7-2 and Runhappy at 7-1 attracted the most attention from bettors – and McIngvale, who plunged $3,000 on his prized sire around 5 p.m. to lower his odds from 17-1 to the second betting choice. Gun Runner progeny was the 9-1 third betting choice.

Sires in order of favoritism for the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager (Odds and $2 Win Will Pays): #24 “All Other Sires” (7-2, $9.60); #16 Runhappy (7-1, $16); #6 Gun Runner (9-1, $20); #15 Quality Road (10-1, $23.20); #7 Into Mischief (14-1, $30); #4 Empire Maker (16-1, $35.80); #3 Curlin (17-1, $37.80); #19 Tapit (18-1, $38); #10 Munnings (18-1, $39.80); #1 American Pharoah (20-1, $42.60); #11 Not This Time (23-1, $48.20); #5 Giant's Causeway (24-1, $51); #21 Uncle Mo (25-1, $53.40); #22 Union Rags (29-1, $60); #9 Medaglia D'Oro (32-1, $66.60); #14 Practical Joke (33-1, $69.60); #2 Candy Ride (ARG) (37-1, $76.80); #12 Nyquist (40-1, $83.20); #18 Street Sense (41-1, $84); #23 Violence (45-1, $93.80); #20 Twirling Candy (48-1, $98.80); #13 Pioneerof the Nile (53-1, $108.40); #17 Speightstown (75-1, $152.40); and #8 Mastery (76-1, $155.80).

Total betting on the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager was a record $50,205 ($38,073 in the Win pool and $12,132 in the Exactas), up 5.5% from last year's $47,567 ($33,269 in the Win pool and $14,298 in Exactas).

The KDFW and Sire Future Wager combined to handle $376,653, a 26.9% jump from last year's $296,898.

The other Future Wager dates are set for Jan. 21-23 (Pool 2), Feb. 11-13 (Pool 3), March 11-13 (Pool 4), and March 31-April 2 (Pool 5). The lone Kentucky Oaks Future Wager will coincide with Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 on March 11-13.

Visit www.KentuckyDerby.com/FutureWager for more information.

The post ‘All Others’ Closes As 3-5 Favorite In Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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McIngvale often combines his wagers with promotions at his Gallery Furniture Stores in Houston. Earlier this year, he promised his customers that any mattress they bought worth $3,000 or more would be free if the favorite won the GI Kentucky Derby. McIngvale hedged, wagering $2.4 million to win on 5-2 favorite Essential Quality (Tapit), who finished fourth. A winning bet would have been worth a profit of just less than $7 million, which would have more than covered the amount he lost giving away free mattresses. A loss by Essential Quality still meant that he sold thousands of mattresses he otherwise would not have sold. Either way, McIngvale would come out a winner.

In February, McIngvale won $2.72 million on a Super Bowl wager in which he bet $3.46 million on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover the 3.5 point spread. It was the single largest legal wager placed on the game.

The latest promotion follows the same blueprint as the Derby wager. An Astros World Series win would mean that anyone buying a mattress during the promotional period would get it for free. Prior to the American League Championship Series, McIngvale estimated that having to give away the mattresses would cost him $20 million. It looks like that number has gone up.

When reached Saturday, a day after the Astros advanced to the World Series with a win over the Boston Red Sox, McIngvale said his store was being overrun by customers looking to take advantage of the promotion.

“Today is the biggest day in the store's history,” he said. “By a factor of about four and it's going up all the time. We're going to sell thousands of mattresses. I can't even count them. We're trying to buy them as fast as we can get them. We can't buy them fast enough. It will literally be thousands of mattresses.”

Believing that the promotion would prove to be a huge success, McIngvale made his wagers on June 10, when the Astros were still considered one of many teams with a good shot at going all the way. He bet $2 million that the Astros would win the World Series with William Hill at odds of 10-1 and another $1 million at 10-1 with Fanduel. He also made two smaller wagers at outlets that gave him 16-1. In total, he bet $3.2 million on the Astros.

The Astros are now an odds-on favorite to win their first World Series since 2017.

“I like to gamble,” McIngvale said. “I gamble big all the time. It's a promotion and it's a hedge. My heart and soul are with the Houston Astros, and, just as with Runhappy, I'm all in.”

For a while, it looked like McIngvale had backed a loser. The Astros fell behind, 2-1, in the series with Boston and their starting pitching was a mess. Many a pundit had already given the series to the Red Sox. Instead, the Astros rallied to win the next three games to close out the series and advance.

“I was not worried,” McIngvale said. “After they got beat Monday night, I was in Boston having a good time and saw some of the players that I know and they were upbeat and positive. I knew that sooner or later every batter on the Red Sox would stop hitting. 500. I knew there would be a statistical swing and things sure swung the Astros way over the last three games.”

Having a potential World Series winner at 10-1 means that McIngavle could “save” and bet some amount to win on the National League team. By doing so, he could lock in a guaranteed profit. It's not going to happen.

“I would consider that treason,” he said. “I would never do that to my boys. I wouldn't do that in a thousand years.”

With so many customers buying mattresses on Saturday, it was difficult for McIngvale to do the math. He knows he will make $35.6 million if the Astros win, but there was no telling how much he would lose giving away so many mattresses. That didn't matter with him. Not only is his heart with his hometown, he wants nothing more than to reward his customers with free mattresses.

“It will make customers happy and that's the whole idea,” he said of an Astros World Championship. “That's the whole idea, making customers happy. That's the name of the game. If the customers get their money back, they will talk about this for decades to come.”

The post For Jim McIngvale, an Astros World Series Win Would Mean $35.6 Million appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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