Key 12-Year Trends (2014–2025)

The Irish Stronghold: Irish-trained horses have won 7 of the last 10 renewals.
The Mullins/Elliott Grip: Willie Mullins (4 wins) and Gordon Elliott (2 wins) dominate the profile.
Last Time Out: 10 of the last 12 winners won their previous start.
Graded Form: 11 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded hurdle previously.
Market Position: 9 of the last 12 winners were in the top three of the betting.
Flat Background: High-class flat performers (rated 90+) have a strong strike rate on “Good” ground.

Runner Analysis & Preference List

1. Maestro Conti (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Paul Townend)

Trends Fit: 10/10. He ticks every box for a prototypical Triumph winner. Unbeaten in two starts in Ireland, including a Grade 1 at Leopardstown last month. He was a high-class flat horse in France and, crucially, his action suggests he will thrive on the drying “Good” ground.
Verdict: The clear statistical leader. Representing the most successful yard in the race’s recent history and coming in off a win.

2. One Horse Town (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Jack Kennedy)

Trends Fit: 9/10. A very close second in terms of profile. Winner of a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse, he is a stout stayer who would perhaps prefer a softer surface, but his “never-say-die” attitude fits the trend of Elliott-trained juveniles who out-battle rivals up the Cheltenham hill.
Verdict: The primary challenger. If the pace is overly strong, his stamina will be a massive asset.

3. Highland Crystal (Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Harry Skelton)

Trends Fit: 7/10. The best of the British. She is a prolific winner this season (4 from 4) but hasn’t faced the same level of opposition as the top Irish pair. However, the Skelton yard is excellent at target-training, and she meets the trend of being a last-time-out winner.
Verdict: A major threat if the Irish leaders underperform. Her slick jumping is a major plus on faster ground.

4. Selma De Vary (Trainer: Willie Mullins | Jockey: Danny Mullins)

Trends Fit: 7/10. Often the “second-string” Mullins horse performs well in this race (e.g., Burning Victory). She was second to Maestro Conti last time. While she fails the “must have won last time out” trend, she is highly rated and the yard’s dominance cannot be ignored.
Verdict: A very strong each-way candidate who could easily reverse form with the favourite if he finds the occasion too much.

5. Fantasy World (Trainer: Joseph O’Brien | Jockey: J. J. Slevin)

Trends Fit: 6/10. Joseph O’Brien has a great record in this race (Ivanovich Gorbatov). This horse was a 100-rated flat performer. He hasn’t won a Graded hurdle yet, which is a negative trend, but his flat speed is perfectly suited to a “Good” ground Triumph Hurdle.
Verdict: The “dark horse” of the race. Statistically slightly behind on hurdle experience, but a danger on the ground.

6. Proactif (Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Sam Ewing)

Trends Fit: 5/10. A consistent type but has been held by Maestro Conti and One Horse Town already this season. He lacks the “Grade 1 engine” seen in the last 12 winners.
Verdict: Likely to finish in the middle of the pack; hard to see him winning based on previous speed ratings.

7. Minella Study (Trainer: Henry de Bromhead | Jockey: Rachael Blackmore)

Trends Fit: 4/10. Only one run over hurdles (a maiden win). 11 of the last 12 winners had at least two runs over hurdles. He is likely too inexperienced for the helter-skelter nature of a Triumph.
Verdict: One for the future, but trends suggest this comes too soon.

Order of Preference

1. Maestro Conti (The statistical standout; unbeaten and top-tier yard)
2. One Horse Town (Strongest Graded form and Elliott’s primary hope)
3. Highland Crystal (Leading British contender with perfect winning sequence)
4. Selma De Vary (High-class Mullins second-string with Graded experience)
5. Fantasy World (Flat speed makes him the danger on “Good” ground)
6. Proactif
7. Minella Study