1) Mage (No. 12 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Mage, the little horse who could, was a characteristic beat slow out of the starting gate. Javier Castellano let him roll with the flow as the field sorted itself out through the first furlong, then darted to secure the rail while fourth-last the first time under the wire.

Unhurried through the turn, this son of Good Magic ($235,000 KEESEP; $290,000 EASMAY) raced several paths off the rail down the backstretch. Castellano seemed content knowing a brisk pace was percolating in front of him while aware the two late-running faves were also still parked at the back.

Edging closer, Mage tagged on behind the rapidly advancing Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits) entering the far turn. Sensing two rivals ranging up from the outside and not wanting to be locked in, Castellano committed his colt to an ever-widening arc to get clear of them. Mage was still 11th while four deep three-eighths out, but he was winding up for a move that would prove to be a better-timed version of the one he uncorked in the GI Florida Derby.

Building momentum, Castellano urged Mage with a more energetic cadence and steered for home in the eight path. He set down Mage as soon as they straightened away, advancing from fifth at the quarter pole to second three-sixteenths out. Zeroing in on a tiring-but not quitting-Two Phil's (Hard Spun), Mage accosted that pacemaker at the eighth pole, with Castellano cracking his colt once right-handed.

Mage didn't exactly blow by the pesky Two Phil's, who lingered a half-length back while Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) emerged as the lone remaining danger. Mage stalled for a stride at the sixteenth pole, but refocused quickly under Castellano's persistent (but never panicked) rousing, driving home with purpose to win by a length (105 Beyer Speed Figure).

2) Two Phil's (No. 11 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Two Phil's ($150,000 RNA KEESEP) broke decently from post three, but an eighth of a mile into the race, Jareth Loveberry wanted no part of being stuck inside, so he guided his colt several paths outward. A trio of speedsters had opened up by three lengths into the first turn, and Two Phil's was in the middle of a second flight of three that crept closer on the back straightaway.

The two waves soon merged, yet even as the pack tightened, Loveberry and Two Phil's appeared relaxed and comfortable. That spot two lanes off the fence proved to be prime positioning into the far turn, because when Verifying (Justify) was first among the duelers to crack, Loveberry shot through to claim the inside passage he vacated, and within three strides Two Phil's had put away Reincarnate (Good Magic) and Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo), who were both being driven while Two Phil's was opening up under hand urging.

At the head of the lane, all the spent horses were bogged down inside, and Two Phil's braced for the wide-and-driving Mage. Two Phil's was understandably fatigued from stalking the fast pace and getting first run at the leaders, and while he was no match for Mage, this colt never packed it in. He stayed on as best he could under Loveberry's urging and held second by a half-length, replicating the 2007 Derby finish of his sire, Hard Spun. He galloped out on even terms with Mage and co-earned a 105 Beyer.

3) Angel of Empire (No. 10 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Angel of Empire ($32,000 RNA KEENOV; $70,000 KEESEP) was sent away from the gate, but not so much to ask him for early speed as to put his head in the game straight from the start. He settled willingly for Flavien Prat third from last the first time through the lane, and seven-eighths out dropped from the three path onto the rail and rode it until the far turn, gradually picking off midpack stragglers as he advanced.

Prat wisely opted off the inside when Verifying began plummeting through the field, and this colt very much looked in it to win it at the top of the stretch. He was eight wide and right behind Mage, but the difference was that Mage kicked into a higher gear while Angel of Empire continued to grind along. This son of Classic Empire was still three lengths in arrears at the eighth pole when Mage made his winning move.

Angel of Empire did find his best stride in that final furlong, but it was too late. Even with an untroubled trip and zesty fractions setting things up for him, this Pennsylvania-bred's usual closing kick wasn't quite good enough to reel in Two Phil's for second-and that's despite upping his best lifetime Beyer by 10 points, from 94 to 104. The top three galloped out more or less together.

4) Disarm (No. 8 in TDN pre-race rankings)
'TDN Rising Star' Disarm (Gun Runner) broke inward from post nine and love-tapped Reincarnate, with neither large-framed colt fazed by the contact. Joel Rosario took every opportunity in the early running to shift this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred deeper down toward the rail, and he found the fence within the back third of the pack by the time the field crested the clubhouse turn.

Disarm kept bettering his position while eating a fair amount of kickback, but he was never able to cut loose with a sustained run and often appeared “on hold” or on the verge of getting pocketed. He split horses on the far turn, but was walled up near the inside off the final bend, which in this year's Derby was not the place to be because of the cluster of tiring horses taking up residence there.

In upper stretch, Rosario tried to dive outward through a hole that Hit Show (Candy Ride{Arg}) got to first, so Plan B was to slice back inside, which only yielded more tight traffic for a precious half-furlong. Disarm shouldered aside the capitulating Kingsbarns, but when he finally go clear running room inside the final eighth, he had no finishing flourish.

Beaten 4 ½ lengths, Disarm was the final Derby horse in the race to be awarded a triple-digit Beyer, and that 100 represented a respectable 10-point jump off the 90s he paired in his previous two races.

5) Hit Show (No. 9 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Although he never fired despite attaining a no-excuse trip from the difficult one post, this Candy Ride (Arg) homebred for Gary and Mary West ran a commendable race, especially considering he's a May 9 foal.

Hit Show broke fluidly from the inside gate, affording Manny Franco the luxury of positioning him where he wanted in the early part of the race. Initially fifth, Hit Show got geared back to seventh through the turn, then was eased off the fence to the four path so Franco could claim a sweet, uncrowded stalking spot behind the speedsters with no one covering him up and plenty of room to maneuver.

Sixth into the far bend, Hit Show started to pick it up with a four-wide run 3 ½ furlongs out under urging from Franco. He looked poised to pounce from third turning for home, but had no response to three left-handed swats in upper stretch. In the manner of a few strides, Hit Show went from attack mode to being under siege. Mage blew by to his outside, and Hit Show stayed on doggedly, with Franco keeping him to task to get fifth money.

6) Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (No. 14 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Derma Sotogake (Jpn) broke toward the back with his head briefly turned inward. There was no rush by Christophe Lemaire to contest the pace. This ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL son of Mind Your Biscuits seemed okay placed farther back in the pack than expected despite getting pelted with kickback.

Lemaire moved decisively 4 1/2 furlongs out, splitting horses at the entrance to the far turn and initially picking off Disarm toward his inside and targeting the on-the-prowl Hit Show in front of him. Derma Sotogake seemed to be drawing a bead on the top trio off the turn, but he was quickly overtaken by Mage and Angel of Empire, whose full heads of steam stood out in contrast against his one-paced action.

“He didn't break as fast as last time but I was able to put him on the inside and save ground,” Lemaire said. “Gradually, we gained position on the final turn. I was in the best spot to make a move, he stayed on and but didn't have the speed to make it closer late.”

The field leaving the starting gate for the 2023 GI Kentucky Derby | Coady

7) Tapit Trice (No. 5 in TDN pre-race rankings)
You can watch the Derby replay as many times as you want, but trainer Todd Pletcher aptly summed up the trip for this 'TDN Rising Star' in his immediate take right after the race:  “Tapit Trice did what he always does-he broke slow and then he had to check a couple of times heading into the first turn. When it came time he couldn't get going well enough. Farther for him-we're thinking [GI] Belmont [S.].”

Luis Saez had to implore this $1.3 million KEESEP son of Tapit straight out of the starting stall, and he briefly lost momentum when Mage dropped in front of him a furlong into the race. Tapit Trice was last into the turn, but was already on the move six furlongs out, which is how he won the GI Blue Grass S.

He picked off three rivals at the back before another minor stutter-step stall a half mile out; Saez seemed conflicted going into the far turn about whether inside or outside would be best. But it really didn't matter because Tapit Trice had left himself too much work to do.

This colt did respond to far-turn rousing, but it takes Tapit Trice quite a while to fully unwind. He spun nine wide into the lane, and when it was evident he not within realistic striking distance, Saez decided to save Tapit Trice for another day.

8) Raise Cain (No. 19 in TDN pre-race rankings)
This son of Violence ($180,000 KEESEP; $65,000 RNA OBSOPN) ran a sneaky-good eighth. He broke running from post 13 and could have made the front vanguard, but Gerardo Corrales took a firm hold and guided him back, eventually latching on to a midpack spot at the fence through the first turn.

Raise Cain showed a nice ability to pick off selected targets down the backstretch, always bettering his position, and when the far turn arrived, he had achieved a tactically advantageous spot behind the too-fast frontrunners down near the inside.

Corrales pulled off a deft move when shifting outside of the tiring Verifying, then reclaiming his spot at the rail. But when the field straightened, the need to get off the plugged-up inside suddenly became desperate, and Raise Cain had to waste forward momentum by repeatedly shifting laterally through the lane. He only encountered more and more traffic, enduring some bumping that stalled his late run for good. Overall though, the effort rates much better than it looks on paper.

9) Rocket Can (No. 13 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Junior Alvarado said post-race that, “I think I had one of the best trips in the race,” and he's probably right-at least for the first mile of the journey.

Rocket Can, a $245,000 FTSAUG RNA gray, was initially a touch keen while briefly running up on heels in the first few strides, but he settled in seventh, inching closer to the action as the two front packs merged into one. He came out to the four path and enjoyed similar uncovered placement as Hit Show while edging to within four lengths of the leaders into the last turn.

After saving ground, this blinkers-on son of Into Mischief tried to punch through between rivals three-sixteenths out, but he had tiring horses on both sides and it wasn't initially apparent if Two Phil's ahead of him was stopping or staying on. By the time Alvarado called on Rocket Can for another burst, the colt had nothing left to give.

10) Confidence Game (No. 18 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Judging Confidence Game's try based on how close he was to a hot pace and how long he hung in there, his Derby 10th at 21-1 odds comes off as a likeable effort.

This $25,000 KEESEP Candy Ride (Arg) colt threw himself right into the race by breaking with good energy and securing a primo position, fourth at the rail into the turn behind a trio of eager  pacemakers.

He was fifth, then fourth for most of the backstretch run, attending the brisk splits while waiting to see how the duel would come undone. Confidence Game attempted to follow the dive-between move of Two Phil's five-sixteenths out, but Two Phil's was into the bridle with more alacrity, relegating this colt to chase mode turning for home closest to the rail.

At the eighth pole, Confidence Game was still within three of the leaders when Mage powered past Two Phil's. But he had that “spinning his wheels” look to his stride, and couldn't sustain his bid. He wasn't hammered on by James Graham when it became evident he wouldn't attain a placing.

11) Sun Thunder (No. 15 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Even with blinkers added, this late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) was unhurried out of the gate, settling into stride second from last the first time past the finish.

Sun Thunder gained a few positions on the far turn and into the stretch, primarily from passing horses who had no forward momentum.

“I think we'll point to the Belmont after this,” trainer Ken McPeek said. “He was a little up against it today, but we'll come back to fight another day.”

12) Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Unranked also-eligible in TDN pre-race rankings)
Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) was a hard-charging pace presence out of gate 17 without really being hustled. He suffered only slight momentum loss when Rocket Can knifed in front of him through the stretch.

Midpack and between rivals onto the backstretch, Kazushi Kimura rode him with confidence, then shook the reins at him with a sense of urgency when fellow Japanese invader Derma Sotogake ranged alongside and quickened into the far turn.

Mandarin Hero was asked for run four deep through the bend, and he came in close quarters with the brawny Tapit Trice. But this colt kept getting passed even though he was responding to his rider.

13) Reincarnate (No. 6 in TDN pre-race rankings)
This $775,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic had Disarm bounce off his outside flank a few jumps out of the gate, but Reincarnate's natural speed carried him straight to the front, where he hooked up as the outermost horse in a three-way go.

John Velazquez tacked him back behind Verifying and Kingsbarns down the back straight, and even though this colt was incrementally edging up a half mile out, he couldn't make much of a dent in the margin because the fractions were so demanding.

Reincarnate's best chance came on the far turn when Verifying was the first to crack, but he couldn't muster an authoritative response to put away the ready-to-cave Kingsbarns. Two Phil's slipped through to his inside instead, and Velazquez concentrated on keeping his own regressing mount out of the way of onrushing contenders once he realized no final kick was coming from Reincarnate.

14) Kingsbarns (No. 7 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Kingsbarns, now a 3-for-4 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR)  won a couple of in-race battles after getting a good jump out of starting stall six.

After establishing a wicked pace, Kingsbarns dueled Verifying into defeat while still in hand entering the far turn under Jose Ortiz, and then kept next-closest pursuer Reincarnate at bay.

But by the midway point on the far bend Kingsbarns had no real response when Two Phil's swallowed him up and a sizable portion of the field careened by. Although out of the race by upper stretch, Kingsbarns managed to contribute to an inside logjam that adversely affected several contenders, although none of them truly had a winning shot.

“I sacrificed going a little bit faster than I wanted to in order to be in a good spot,” Ortiz said. “I wish we could have given him a breather on the backside.”

15) King Russell (Unranked also-eligible in TDN pre-race rankings)
This $60,000 FTKOCT gray by Creative Cause overcame a wide draw from post 18 but could only scrape together a mild mid-race spurt after going four wide on the clubhouse turn.

“He made a nice move from the five-eighths pole to the three-eighths pole, and then after that, he started to get tired and give up,” said jockey Rafael Bejarano.

16) Verifying (No. 4 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Post position two sealed Verifying's fate as a Derby frontrunner, even though he is probably more accomplished and comfortable as a pace-presser.

Tyler Gaffalione let him rumble through torrid opening quarters of :22.35 and :23.38 while forced forward by the speed-centric Kingsbarns and Reincarnate. When Verifying had no more left to give, his rider did a good job wrapping up and letting him coast back through the field along the inside without incident.

The Blue Grass S. and the Derby have now made for two difficult races in a row for this May 11 foal by Justify ($775,000 KEESEP), who still figures to be a fighter at the upper echelon of the division given his underlying talent and the stout seasoning he's gotten over the past six weeks.

17) Jace's Road (No. 17 in TDN pre-race rankings)
'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road, a $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, was sent away from gate 10 and landed a key stalking spot sixth on the outside heading into the turn. But he couldn't hold his position, and lost touch by the half-mile marker.

“He broke sharp and I tried to hustle him but he could not keep up with the three horses in front,” said Florent Geroux. “He was not trying. Before I knew everyone started passing him.”

18) Cyclone Mischief (Unranked also-eligible in TDN pre-race rankings)
This $450,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief  broke sluggishly and was widest and last a furlong into the Derby. He zoomed by nine horses before the pack hit the first turn, but got hung out five deep on that bend and soon regressed to the tail of the field.

The post Top to Bottom: Derby Rundown appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move has the distinction of being the only Derby contender this year to run two triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures at age three, earning a 100 in each of his last two wins, the GII San Felipe S. and the GI Santa Anita Derby.

Among all the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” qualifying races in 2022-23, this Tim Yakteen trainee also produced the two fastest final clockings at 1 1/16 miles (GII Los Alamitos Futurity and San Felipe), plus the quickest nine-furlong winning time (Santa Anita Derby).

Beyond the question of “how fast,” Practical Move rates highly from a “how he does it” perspective. Regular rider Ramon Vazquez should feel pretty confident he's on a colt who has enough tactical speed to be placed within the first flight and doesn't shy from slicing through tight inside passages. Practical Move's late-race torque is a proven commodity that he's used to his advantage in three consecutive rail-running victories.

Vazquez has had only one previous Derby mount, a trip-troubled 13th in 2015 aboard the 36-1 Mr. Z.

Although Practical Move's sire, Practical Joke, was a three-time Grade I winner in New York, he never won a two-turn race (fifth in the 2017 Derby). Maternal grandsire Afleet Alex, though, ran third in the 2005 Derby, then won both the GI Preakness S. and GI Belmont S.

Practical Move | Benoit

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte sports a daunting 6-for-7 career record and he hasn't had a single training setback at age three, winning the two prep races (GII Fountain of Youth S. and GI Florida Derby) that trainer Todd Pletcher said he would target after this tall, lanky colt won last November's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Peer closely at that past-performance block though, and you can see reasons why some handicappers will be willing to bet against this son of Violence on Derby Day.

Even if you don't believe in speed figures at their face-value level, it's concerning when any horse-let alone a divisional champion-regresses in his overall pattern from age two to three. Forte ran a 100 Beyer in the Juvenile, dipped to a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, then checked in with a 95 in the Florida Derby.

That Fountain of Youth slippage might be forgiven considering Forte prowled around the track like he knew he had the field at his mercy and was geared down in the final stages when his win was evident. The Florida Derby, though, featured robust early splits (it was the only nine-furlong prep this season in which the first three quarters were all clocked in sub-24 seconds). Yet when Forte unleashed his customary late kick, it came during a so-so final quarter in :25.72 and a tepid final eighth in :13.02.

Still, you have to respect that this is an A-level athlete who simply fires on the far turn every time out.

It's also noteworthy that Forte's three most visually appealing races (GI Breeders' Futurity, Juvenile, Fountain of Youth) all came over short-stretch configurations with the finish line at or near the sixteenth pole, a setup that does not traditionally favor horses kicking in from farther back. The Derby distance and Churchill's ample stretch both have the potential to work to Forte's advantage.

Forte | Lauren King

3) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Hit Show, a 3-for-5 Candy Ride (Arg) homebred for Gary and Mary West, has the distinction of going off favored in every one of his races. His three victories were open-length romps, and his only two losses were a second by a nose in the roughly run GII Wood Memorial (after overcoming post 12) and a fourth at age two in his first try against winners (when he bobbled at the break).

Although the two horses ranked above him-Practical Move and Forte-earned their spots based on proven ability, Hit Show is more of a speculative selection based on the assumption that he'll offer significantly overlaid value while being primed to peak on Derby Day.

Hit Show is a May 9 foal. Although exact foaling date records are sketchy prior to 1940, 11 known May foals have won the Derby dating to 1875. The most recent two were Authentic in 2020 (who won a Derby that was run in September) and Country House in 2019 (who crossed the wire second but was elevated to the win because of the disqualification of Maximum Security).

4) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP), like Hit Show, also won't technically turn three until after the Derby (May 11). But he ran a “wise beyond his age” second in the GI Blue Grass S., beaten only a neck after twice clawing back the lead in a heavyweight stretch smackdown with No. 5-ranked 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice (Tapit).

This Justify colt is a half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou. Beyond the Triple Crown-winning cachet atop his pedigree, Verifying's female family includes some overlooked nuggets. Damsire Repent was a hard-charging early favorite for the 2002 Derby before getting derailed from the Triple Crown series by an ankle injury. And Repent's sire, Louis Quatorze, wired the 1996 GI Preakness S.

A decent post draw and a clean break almost certainly puts Verifying in the hunt for the lead in the Derby, an obvious plus considering eight of the past nine Derbies have been won by horses either on the front end or forcing the issue.

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice “takes a little while to get going,” according to jockey Luis Saez. But once he picks up steam, look out. He rolled to victory from off the tailgate in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby, and looked beaten on the far turn of the Blue Grass S. before relentlessly reeling in Verifying to win a length-of-stretch battle.

Tapit Trice closed with gusto through a final furlong in :12.40, the fastest final eighth in the Blue Grass since Keeneland switched back to dirt in the fall of 2014. Even more impressive is that he launched his sustained move six furlongs out, which no other competitor on the Derby trail has come close to doing this season.

This gray son of Tapit ($1.3 million at KEESEP) has come around horses in all four of his victories. But his wide-and-driving tactics, combined with his propensity for dawdling at the break, could work against him in a 20-horse Derby.

Even though the two are built differently, consider a comparison to Essential Quality, another 'Rising Star' gray who was favored in the 2021 Derby and also ridden by Saez.

The juvenile champ went into the Derby undefeated after similarly making big, outside moves. Like Tapit Trice, Essential Quality's final prep was the Blue Grass, and it, too, featured a demanding stretch duel through the previously fastest Blue Grass final eighth in the new-dirt era (:12.53).

In the Derby, Essential Quality got off slowly, then Saez kept him four wide on both turns in an effort to avoid getting jammed inside. The colt rallied, but his fourth-place try lacked the spark of previous tries. The tough last prep didn't help him, and the lost ground definitely hurt him. Essential Quality skipped the GI Preakness. S., then won the GI Belmont S., GII Jim Dandy S. and GI Travers S. in succession.

Regardless of whether you think that sort history will repeat with Tapit Trice, you at least have to factor in those tactical similarities when assessing whether or not banking on a closer who gives himself so much extra work to do is a sound bet in a crowded, chaotic race like the Derby.

Tapit Trice | Coady

6) SKINNER (c, Curlin-Winding Way, by Malibu Moon) O-C R K Stable; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-John Shirreffs. Sales history: $40,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $510,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 6-1-0-3, $216,300. Last start: 3rd GI Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Skinner still needs two defections to make the qualifying cut. But I can see him emerging as a “wiseguy” horse at over 30-1 if he gets in.
To arrive at that conclusion, you have to buy into the benefits of the patient, confidence-building training methodology of John Shirreffs, and basically put a line through Skinner's uninspiring race results at age two.

Instead, focus on his progression at age three, which includes a mile maiden win followed by a pair of thirds over increasing distances behind No. 1-ranked Practical Move, the latter punctuated by a purposeful, three-furlong late kick.

All three efforts generated strong Beyers (95-94-99) that leave room for improvement. There's also the been-there-done that factor, based on John Shirreffs's 50-1 Derby upset with Giacomo in 2005, and jockey Victor Espinoza's three Derby wins with War Emblem (2002), California Chrome (2014) and American Pharoah (2015).

7) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

This 3-for-3 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) projected to control the tempo in the GII Louisiana Derby, and he did just that, leading at every call through very moderate fractions (:24.71, 49.50, 1:14.69, 1:39.13) and light pressure. The effort earned a 95 Beyer, a decent number despite the 1:57.33 clocking for 1 3/16 miles being the slowest in four years since that stakes got elongated from nine furlongs.

Still, the win represents capable advancement through only 10 weeks of racing experience, and the overall trend for the undefeated Kingsbarns shows no regression (74-85-95 Beyers). Beyond what he's shown on paper, this is a no-nonsense colt who goes about his business without drama, and he's already handled shipping to and racing over three very different dirt surfaces (Gulfstream, Tampa, Fair Grounds).

Only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby: Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924.

8) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Reincarnate is a glass half empty/half full proposition. Winless since his Jan. 8 GIII Sham S., his Beyers share a similar in-decline pattern over three races as Forte's (95-90-86), and his no-impact third in the Arkansas Derby doesn't supply much next-race momentum.
Yet this long-striding $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic has never been out of the money from seven starts, all at a mile or longer, and he gives the impression of a contender who should be finishing better than his running lines suggest.

Jockey John Velazquez said three months ago that Reincarnate was “still learning how to run” and tended to wait on other horses once he made the lead. His speed-centric style should give him the advantage of being forwardly placed and potentially ahead of trip trouble in the Derby, but you'd better hold out for a sizable mutuel before banking on that investment.

9) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 3rd in the GIII Lexington S. at Keeneland Apr. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 46.

All that 'TDN Rising Star' Disarm had to do in Saturday's GIII Lexington S. was run third to secure the six qualifying points that would put him into the Derby, and jockey Jose Ortiz made sure the colt did just that. Unless it was obvious this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred was going to blow by the field under his own power, everyone knew going into the race there would be no sense in asking Disarm for too strenuous an effort in the interest of keeping him fresh for May 6.

Disarm broke okay then was briefly squeezed back entering the first turn. The momentum loss wasn't serious, and he took up the chase seventh onto the backstretch, incrementally edging his way toward the top by the time the field hit the far turn.

Disarm responded when asked for a test-drive spurt of energy that propelled him to third at the top of the lane. But Ortiz realized he wasn't going to catch the dueling duo up front (especially with Keeneland's short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles ending at the sixteenth pole), so he wisely kept Disarm to task just enough win the “race within the race,” securing show by three-quarters of a length.

No wins at age three and having never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles aren't ideal. But those circumstances were dictated by Disarm having been out of action between August and February. A bet on him in the Derby is essentially a wager that his Gun Runner (out of a Tapit mare) bloodlines are going to put him over the top at 10 furlongs.

10) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Trainer Brad Cox has secured the services of jockey Flavien Prat to ride Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) in the Derby. Prat, currently tops in the nation with 15 graded stakes wins in 2023, had piloted both Angel of Empire and No. 7-ranked Kingsbarns in their respective final preps.

Prat has ridden in five Derbies and finished in the money four times. In 2019 he rode Country House, who was declared the 65-1 winner via disqualification of Maximum Security. Prat was also third at 40-1 with Battle of Midway in 2017, second with Hot Rod Charlie at 5-1 in 2021, and third with Zandon at 6-1 in 2022.

Angel of Empire is 4-for-6 lifetime and at his best when given front-end targets to track down. Although his GII Risen Star S. win (89 Beyer) could be attributed him benefitting from a pace meltdown, this colt's Oaklawn score (94 Beyer) was noticeably more assertive, with this Pennsylvania-bred decisively overpowering the pacemaker.

Angel of Empire | Coady

11) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

Two Phil's ($150,000 RNA KEESEP), the 101-Beyer winner of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, is 4-for-8 closer/stalker who rates highly in terms of versatility and adaptability.

Off as the 2.8-1 second choice in the Jeff Ruby, Two Phil's broke alertly, rated kindly, then was content to be parked outside while sixth down the backstretch. He gathered momentum four deep through the far turn, then shadowed the favorite as the two jointly accosted the pacemaker at the head of the stretch. Two Phil's deftly shrugged off the fave, then chugged for the wire under his own power, with no one seriously challenging.

But this son of Hard Spun does own a 5 1/4-length win at 7-1 odds over a sloppy, sealed Churchill dirt track in the Oct. 30 GIII Street Sense S., which could mean his connections will be doing a rain dance come Derby week.

Two Phil's | Coady

12) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

Mage, who celebrates a birthday Apr. 18, is still without a committed Derby rider as of this writing. This son of Good Magic popped with an encouraging second in the Florida Derby, launching a big, far-turn bid, repulsing a stern stretch drive from the eventual third-place horse, but still being no match for the vastly more experienced winner Forte.

The conundrum facing Derby bettors centers on whether that 94-Beyer improvement represents the ceiling for Mage or if it is just a sneak preview of a higher phase of his development.

Mage's company lines from his Jan. 28 MSW win at Gulfstream got a boost over the weekend. The runner- up in that race, Bourbon Resolve (Hard Spun) came back to win a MSW route at Keeneland as the favorite.

The fourth-place finisher, Perform (Good Magic), who had already won his subsequent start at 7-10 odds at Tampa back on Mar. 11, won again at Laurel, capturing the Federico Tesio S. by a head at 10-1 odds.

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate:

13) Lord Miles
Lord Miles (Curlin) broke his maiden by 5 ¾ lengths sprinting at Gulfstream. Then he ran third in the one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man S., beaten only three-quarters of a length. Stretched out to two turns to take advantage of his stout, female-family bloodlines (A.P. Indy, Seeking the Gold), Lord Miles then drew the rail in both the GIII Holy Bull S. and the Tampa Bay Derby, encountering trouble at the start on both occasions while sixth and fifth. He was bumped at the break in the Wood Memorial too, but overcame it to force the issue, drop back, then re-rally to charge home to a $120 victory in a roughly ridden, three-way stretch fight.

14) Derma Sotogake (Jpn)
When Derma Sotogake (Jpn) wired the G2 UAE Derby, it marked the first group winner for Mind Your Biscuits, the Grade I and Group 1-winning sprinter from five or six years back whose last stateside triumph was a successful stretch-out to nine furlongs in the 2018 GIII Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs. This ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL yearling orchestrated a comfortable, 5 1?2-length score in that 1 3/16-miles Meydan stakes, leading home a Japan-based 1-2-3-4 finish. Since 2000, 12 winners of the UAE Derby have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby, and the best finish among them was sixth (along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try). But times are changing, as Japanese horses are increasingly stamping themselves as worthy global competitors at racing's top levels. Getting too mired in past results might be a mistake in prognosticating how Derma Sotogake will fare in this year's edition.

15) Rocket Can
After Rocket Can (Into Mischief) ran a lackluster fourth as the beaten fave in the Arkansas Derby, trainer Bill Mott surmised that this $245,000 FTSAUG RNA gray has the ability to do better, but “he's just not quite giving it all” yet. A bullet half-mile over the Churchill strip in :46.60 (1/34) last Thursday might be a step toward bringing about an attitude adjustment, but Rocket Can is generally a sharp work horse anyway, having routinely posted bullets at Payson Park over the winter. He has five route races leading up to the Derby, and he earned style points in most of them as a punch-above-his-weight type of stalker. But the poorest try among them was over nine furlongs at Oaklawn, leading to realistic concerns about whether 10 furlongs will be within his scope. Churchill does seem to be Rocket Can's preferred surface. He broke his maiden there back on Oct. 30 and was second, beaten just a half-length, in a Nov. 26 allowance.

16) Sun Thunder
Trainer Kenny McPeek described Sun Thunder as a Derby “fringe horse” in a Daily Racing Form interview last week, and that label fits. This late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) was fourth, 6 ½ lengths off Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass S. He still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks, but he's run second, fourth (twice), and fifth in graded stakes against decent company through a winter/spring campaign. He is going to need help both pace-wise and trip-wise in the Derby while also having to find at least another 14 or 15 points on the Beyer scale to be in it to win it (he's twice maxxed out at 89).

17) Jace's Road
Prior to last Saturday, Jace's Road barely made the qualifying cutoff. But Disarm's six-points third in the Lexington S. knocked him back onto the also-eligible list. A $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, this colt ran a non-threatening third in the Louisiana Derby, and the best race on his résumé is still the 90-Beyer Dec. 26 wiring of the Gun Runner S. Jace's Road's status as an early 'TDN Rising Star' whose form has taken a hit reminds me a little bit of fellow Brad Cox trainee Mandaloun, who was also a 'Rising Star' and had a subpar final prep in the 2021 Louisiana Derby. Mandaloun reawakened with a 26-1 second in the Kentucky Derby, then subsequently was upgraded to the win because of the still-under-appeal drug DQ of Medina Spirit.

18) Confidence Game
Confidence Game, the 18-1 upsetter of the Rebel S., registered a 94-Beyer win by getting third run at wilting leaders. This $25,000 KEESEP Candy Ride (Arg) colt was initially slated for one more prep, but in March trainer Keith Desormeaux said it took Confidence Game “a little longer than usual to recover.” There was speculation he'd enter this past Saturday's Lexington S., but he instead breezed a mile from the gate on Friday in 1:38.20 (1/1). Now Confidence Game will head to the Derby off a 70-day layoff and never having run beyond 1 1/16 miles. Since 1929 (the advent of complete records), the longest winning layoff for a regularly scheduled Derby in May was 42 days, equaled by Needles (1956) and Animal Kingdom (2011).

19) Continuar (Jpn)
The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) was third and beaten 10 lengths by Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby. In their three common races, Derma Sotogake now has two wins over Continuar (the other was by a nose in a Nov. 6 handicap at Hanshin). Derma Sotogake was also third ahead of Continuar (fifth) in the G3 Saudi Derby. This ¥70,000,000 JRHJUL yearling's most recent victory was in the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26. Stateside fans will recall his sire, Drefong, as the Bob Baffert-trained champion sprinter in 2016.

20) Wild On Ice
Every Derby needs a massive, small-circuit-based longshot as a rooting interest, and Wild On Ice (Tapizar) fits the bill this year. The 35-1 winner of the GIII Sunland Derby in New Mexico has 60-year-old jockey Ken Tohill poised to become the oldest rider ever to compete in the Kentucky Derby. In the Sunland Derby, this Texas-bred homebred for Frank Sumpter stalked two front-running favorites who had shipped in from Santa Anita, and when the invaders dueled themselves into defeat, Wild On Ice opportunistically picked up the pieces for a 77-Beyer, 1 ¼-length score.

Note: Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) was ranked at No. 11 here last week but has now dropped to the 25th spot in qualifying points. Because of his diminished chances at making it into the main body of the race, he got relegated out of the TDN Top 20. Two horses who are currently inside the qualifying cut–Raise Cain (Violence) and Blazing Sevens (Good Magic)–are also not listed in this week's write-up.

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Albaugh Family Stables' Angel of Empire worked alongside stablemate Tapit's Conquest (Tapit), who was most recently seventh in the Louisiana Derby, just as the track opened at 5:30 a.m. Sporting blinkers while working outside his stablemate through early fractions of :12.40 and :24.40, Angel of Empire galloped out five furlongs in 1:00.80, according to Churchill Downs clocker John Nichols. Cox's exercise rider Edvin Vargas was aboard for the move.

Two hours later, Vargas was again in the irons when West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables' Jace's Road worked in company with Smarty Jones S. winner Victory Formation (Tapwrit).

“It was a solid morning with three weeks out from the Derby,” Cox said. “It's always an exciting time of year and we'll see what happens in 21 days.”

Following Jace's Road's work, Cox's other Derby contenders, GI Toyota Blue Grass S. runner-up Verifying (Justify) and GII Wood Memorial runner-up Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}), galloped about 1 1/2 miles. Both are scheduled to work next Saturday.

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Well-backed at odds of 9-2 from a 6-1 morning-line quote, Kingsbarns was sent to the front by Flavien Prat from post six and led the way through easy fractions of :24.71 and :49.60 with Jace's Road shadowing in second. Kingsbarns began to shake free from the aforementioned Gun Runner S. winner as they straightened and streaked under the wire a powerful, 3 1/2-length winner. Disarm, making only second start of the year, ran well to rally from sixth to complete the exacta.

Kingsbarns was a game debut winner going a one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park Jan. 14, then aced his two-turn debut versus six overmatched optional claiming rivals at Tampa Feb. 12. He was favored on both occasions.

Pedigree Notes:

Kingsbarns, an $800,000 2-year-old purchase by Spendthrift Farm out of the Tom McCrocklin consignment at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Sale after breezing a quarter in :20 3/5, becomes the 49th graded/93rd stakes winner for leading sire Uncle Mo. Broodmare sire Tapit is now responsible for 41 graded/84 stakes winners. Kingsbarns is bred similarly to GI Belmont S. winner Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), who was produced by the Pulpit mare Callingmissbrown. Lady Tapit, a half-sister to GI American Oaks Invitational S. heroine Gozzip Girl (Dynaformer), is also responsible for a 2-year-old colt by Union Rags and a yearling colt by Gun Runner. She was bred to Munnings for 2023. Lady Tapit RNA'd for $675,000 as a KEESEP yearling. Spendthrift also went to a sale-topping $1.2 million at the Gulfstream Sale for the McCrocklin-consigned Ruby Nell (Bolt d'Oro), who has finished second in both of her tries thus far at Santa Anita this term.

Saturday, Fair Grounds
TWINSPIRES.COM LOUISIANA DERBY-GII, $1,000,000, Fair Grounds, 3-25, 3yo, 1 3/16m, 1:57.33, ft.
1–KINGSBARNS, 122, c, 3, by Uncle Mo
          1st Dam: Lady Tapit (GSP), by Tapit
          2nd Dam: Temperence Gift, by Kingmambo
          3rd Dam: Shapiro's Mistress, by Unpredictable
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN.
($250,000 Ylg '21 FTSAUG; $800,000 2yo '22 FTFMAR).
O-Spendthrift Farm LLC; B-Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY);
T-Todd A. Pletcher; J-Flavien Prat. $600,000. Lifetime Record:
3-3-0-0, $657,300. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus* Click
for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the free
Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Disarm, 122, c, 3, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit.
1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. O/B-Winchell
Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen. $200,000.
3–Jace's Road, 122, c, 3, Quality Road–Out Post, by Silver
Deputy. ($510,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-West Point
Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Colts Neck
Stables LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. $100,000.
Margins: 3HF, 2 3/4, 2. Odds: 4.50, 7.80, 6.20.
Also Ran: Shopper's Revenge, Sun Thunder, Instant Coffee, Tapit's Conquest, Cagliostro, Baseline Beater, Denington, Curly Jack, Single Ruler.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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Currently 10th on the leaderboard–the highest of the runners in the field–Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) took the win in the second local prep race of the season–the GIII Lecomte S. Jan. 21–after ending his juvenile campaign with a victory under the Twinspires in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. for trainer Brad Cox.

Cox has swept the Fair Grounds prep races thus far with Jace's Road (Quality Road), winner of the Gun Runner S. Dec. 26. The Louisiana Derby will the his first start since a fifth in the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Jan. 28.

Making just his second start since being named a 'TDN Rising Star' at Saratoga last fall, Disarm (Gun Runner) makes his stakes debut Saturday off a second against allowance/optional claiming company at Oaklawn Feb. 19.

“He needed that race and he needs this,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “He's a talented horse playing catch up. From where we were at, I only felt we could get two runs in him (before a possible start in the Kentucky Derby), and the mile-and-three-sixteenths distance will move him forward. He's a horse who will stay on nicely but he needs some racing. He has a high talent level and deserves this chance.”

Undefeated in a pair of starts, Spendthrift Farm color-bearer Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo) also makes his stakes debut for trainer Todd Pletcher.

Turfway Serves Up 'Well Done' Derby Prep

Bolt d'Oro has another potential leading contender on the trail in Turfway's GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. with GIII Kitten's Joy S. heroine Major Dude also flying the Spendthrift Farm colors. Having contested his last four races on the turf, including another graded-stakes win last fall in Belmont's GII Pilgrim S., the colt tries the tapeta for the first time for a chance at the 100-40-30-20-10 points on offer.

An experienced dirt horse, Two Phils (Hard Spun) leaves Fair Grounds for Turfway after contesting the last two preps in New Orleans-coming in second to Instant Coffee in the GIII Lecomte S. Jan. 21 and third when last spotted behind Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) in the GII Risen S. Feb. 18.

“At one point the horse did a two-minute lick for me one time over a synthetic surface and it was almost an eye-opening move,” said trainer Larry Rivelli of Two Phil's. “I've been trying to think of the easiest spot for the money and I think this will be the spot. If he absolutely hates the surface, that's on me. I'm sort of putting myself out there saying that I think he will run well over it. Working a half-mile or five-eighths is a lot different than running a race. That's when you find out if a horse doesn't like a surface. I'm pretty confident he will like it but like anything else in racing there could be a chance he doesn't like it. I didn't think he'd like the mud at Churchill (in the Street Sense) until he did.”

One contender who has experience over the surface is Congruent (Tapit), who faded to sixth behind Major Dude in the Kitten's Joy but rebounded with a win over the tapeta in the local prep, the John Battaglia Memorial S.

Art Collector Looks To Stay On Top

The newly-crowned GI Pegasus World Cup winner, Art Collector (Bernardini) looks to keep rolling into New Orleans in the GII New Orleans Classic S.

He'll face another son of the late Darley great in Gary and Mary West's West Will Power, entered off a pair of runner-up efforts in the GI Clark S. and the GII Razorback H.

The field also includes GSW Pioneer of Medina (Pioneerof the Nile) and GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity winner Rattle N Roll (Connect).

Hoosier Philly Right Back At It

Already sitting in eighth place on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks, Tom Amoss's Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief) cares more about redemption than points in Saturday's GII Fair Grounds Oaks.

“I still think she's the best horse I have ever had in my barn,” Amoss said after his filly was a well-beaten third last time out in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. Feb. 18.

She'll be challenged by a formidable pair in the Rachel Alexandra winner, 'TDN Rising Star'  Pretty Mischievous (Into Mischief), and Silverbulletday S. victor The Alys Look (Connect), who defeated GISP Chop Chop (City of Light).

While all three fillies are in the top 10 in points standings, the Fair Grounds Oaks does award a further 100-40-30-20-10 points towards the GI Kentucky Oaks.

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The big bucks are obviously at Gulfstream. But it tells you plenty about the inside-out values of this business that even a prize exceeded in the U.S. by a single other race would not quite fund the docket signed on behalf of Zedan Racing Stables, up the road at OBS last April, for a son of Uncle Mo. And it's in Hot Springs that we'll start to find out whether even those giddy stakes might yet yield a dividend.

Now, anyone who spends as much as $2.3 million on a colt that has clocked :9 4/5 under tack will typically do so in the hope of putting him right where we find 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight now–as the current No. 1 in colleague T.D. Thornton's GI Kentucky Derby “Top 12”. As things stand, however, his trainer remains ineligible to bank the 20 starting points available to the winner of this race. And there's a curveball, this time, in that any Derby candidate in the Bob Baffert barn must move out by the end of February. That's over a month earlier than when Baffert had to send out his refugees last year.

With his lawyers trying to break those chains next week, we can leave for another day what has for everyone become a rather wearisome sub-plot. For now, it will be compelling simply to see how Arabian Knight responds to some talented and rather more seasoned opposition, having presumably learned little in outclassing a field of maidens at Keeneland. It's obviously encouraging that his closest pursuer that day has done so well since; and we saw, last year, how adeptly Baffert educated another expensive 2-year-old purchase for the same owners, Taiba (Gun Runner), so that he could win the GI Santa Anita Derby for his new trainer, with only a similarly undemanding debut behind him.

(To listen to an audio version of this story, click the arrow below)

True, the first Saturday in May still came too soon for Taiba. Arabian Knight, however, is miles ahead of that curve and he's going to learn plenty from this whole experience, however it plays out, after boarding a plane to run a second turn for the first time. Unsurprisingly, he has been laying a foundation of powerful works back in California, but he must square up to a rival in Corona Bolt (Bolt d'Oro) who has, despite a rather upright head carriage, looked extremely fast and professional in two sprints.

If these two instinctive talents are likely to resemble sparkling new sabres, sending sparks flying until one is finally forced clattering onto the floor, then they need to keep Corona Bolt's barnmate Jace's Road (Quality Road) in the corner of their eye. For here is a rival who knows the difference between a mere duel and a pitched battle; one who's been learning self-defense and strategy at the marine training camp.

Yes, he too flashed raw talent with a 'Rising Star' sprint debut. But it was as long ago as September that he started on the kind of life lessons that still await Arabian Knight. Sampling the Derby surface in the GIII Iroquois S., he got drawn into pursuit of a couple that turned out merely to be hauling each other to the ground. But whereas they dropped out accordingly, Jace's Road bravely renewed battle with the closers and grabbed a place.

After that chastening rite of passage, his next start made it possible to wonder which way Jace's Road was going: his whole demeanor was irritable, and his mood cannot have improved as he trailed home splattered in slop. But then came the Gun Runner S., over the same course as this race, and suddenly he had it all figured out. He broke sharply, went bounding along in the lead and opened up late for a decisive score.

Brad Cox, who additionally saddles Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) here, has an absolute cavalry to sieve down on the Classic trail. Last weekend he saddled Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) for that efficient score in the GIII Lecomte S., as well as two fillies that finished over a dozen lengths clear of the rest in the Oaks trial. It feels very much as though Cox has now entered upon an even more potent cycle, after his four winners at the 2020 Breeders' Cup invited all the top programs to conclude that if they couldn't beat him, they may as well join him.

Instant Coffee runs in the same silks as Cyberknife, who gets the chance to stage his very own, flesh-and-blood stallion promotion in the Pegasus. Knowing Spendthrift, he's likely to enjoy a heroically lascivious lifestyle over the coming months. If only somebody could get him to understand the situation, he'd be the bet of all time.

Actually, I suppose the chances are that he's already operating on some primal sense of the benefits reserved for the herd leader. Anyway, be that as it may, this will be Cyberknife's 11th start in 13 months since he broke his maiden, so he evidently has the hardware to have sustained another campaign on the track. But we all recognize that he stands to make much more in his second career than in his first, even if he tops up an account already through $2 million by winning the Pegasus.

Certainly Cyberknife has achieved as much as anyone could dare to hope in spending $400,000 for a Saratoga yearling. But while everyone involved will thank him for his sterling service, and will miss him once he has moved on, the reality is that Instant Coffee–while not yet half the racehorse–has already supplanted Cyberknife in the attention of most.

For the Eclipse Awards are all on the mantlepiece now, and even Flightline's only job is to nourish a new dream. And, actually, that's great. Because it's the next dream that will always refresh our appetite for the game; that will have all those mares waiting in line at Spendthrift.

It's this mutual stimulus between racing and breeding, between track and field, that maintains human passion as the driver of the billions invested, not just in our industry, but in our sport. That's why someone will give $2.3 million for a horse bought a few months earlier for $250,000; and also why a fellow can get it into his head, after a fairly random visit to the Bluegrass, to buy himself a horse farm and populate it with a few mares. That's how Corser Thoroughbreds came to buy a young mare by Astrology at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale, carrying a first foal by Uncle Mo, for $285,000. That foal is Arabian Knight.

So the end of one chapter for Cyberknife will only open a new one. Who knows? Perhaps there's another novice breeder out there, who will end up putting a colt by Cyberknife on the 2027 Derby trail. And if we'll all be older then, and probably no wiser, then those are the kind of dreams–endlessly repeated, ever revitalized–that also keep us young.

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Verifying: A $775,000 Keeneland September purchase, he was second in the GI Champagne S. before finishing mid-pack in the Juvenile.

“Hopefully, the race Saturday will be the start of a big year for him and everything will go well for him on Saturday,” Cox said. “After this race and if everything goes well Saturday we'll look for a Triple Crown prep.”

Loggins (Ghostzapper): Though he finished second behind eventual Juvenile winner Forte (Violence) in the GI Breeders' Futurity, Loggins served notice that day that he is a horse to be reckoned with. Of the two, Forte clearly had the better trip and Loggins was fighting back at the end. Afterward, Cox decided to pass on the Juvenile and freshen the horse up for the Derby. Loggins remains at WinStar Farm, where he went after the Breeders' Futurity for some R & R, but the trainer said he should arrive back at his Fair Grounds barn shortly. Cox remains undecided when it comes to Loggins's next race.

Victory Formation (Tapwrit): In his first try around two turns, Victory Formation won the Jan. 1 one-mile Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn by three lengths. Having passed the all-important distance test, he should be ready for a tougher assignment. Cox said the colt will go next in either the GII Rebel S. or the GII Risen Star S.

Angel of Empire (Classic Empire): Finished second behind stablemate Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones. His next start will be in either the Rebel or Risen Star.

Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro): Was last seen winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. on Nov. 26 at Churchill. That he's already won around two turns and at Churchill Downs are pluses. He will run next in the GIII Lecomte S. on Jan. 21 at Fair Grounds.

“He's doing well,” Cox said. “Since his last run we've been pointing to the Lecomte and have freshened him up a bit. He's been training very well here at the Fair Grounds.”

Jace's Road (Quality Road): Is coming off a huge run in the Dec. 26 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, which he won by 5 1/2 lengths and under wraps. He's been working regularly since and Cox said the GIII Southwest S. will be next for him.

Giant Mischief (Into Mischief): Suffered somewhat of a setback when he couldn't win the Springboard Mile S. at Remington as the 4-5 favorite. Nonetheless, he was second and ran well enough to suggest he still belongs in the Derby picture. Cox said the Rebel will be next.

“He had three runs as a 2-year-old and ran in mid-December,” Cox said. “I feel like he'll only need two starts before the Derby. We'll find out if we can earn enough points and if he's worthy of making it into the Derby.”'

Corona Bolt (Bolt d'Oro): Is 2-for-2 and was an impressive winner of the six-furlong Sugar Bowl S., where he earned a 97 Beyer figure. Can he stretch out?

“He's a good colt,” Cox said. “We will try him in the Southwest and will prepare him at the Fair Grounds for his first run around two turns. There's always a little bit of a question whether they want to go two turns. He's a horse with a lot of speed but he's also intelligent and seems to relax and respond to what the rider wants.”

Though Cox has officially won a Derby, he admits he'd like to get another one and do so with a horse who crosses the wire first. He's optimistic that within this deep group there may be that special horse.

“It is a very good group that we have,” he said. “I felt last summer that we had a very good group of colts. I feel fortunate and am very happy with where we are. But I'm the first to admit there's a long way to go before we get to the first Saturday in May and that things have to go right.

“The Derby is why I get up and do this every day. It means a tremendous amount to me and to everyone in our stable. It means a lot to the owners and the race really helps drive this game. It's the biggest race we have in America. For me, it would be great to win it the right way and cross the wire first.”

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1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $86,025. Last start: 1st Keeneland Maiden Special Weight, Nov. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.

It wasn't too long ago that ranking a colt who has zero experience beyond the maiden ranks as your Derby kingpin in the dead of winter would have been an audacious selection. But now, in this era where a Triple Crown “foundation” often consists of just two or three sophomore prep races, heading a list with a lightly experienced contender like 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight isn't all that outlandish.

This powerful son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP; $2.3 million OBSAPR sale-topper) didn't just “debut” on the Breeders' Cup undercard–his presence in Lexington on racing's championship weekend was a well-orchestrated unveiling by trainer Bob Baffert for owner Zedan Racing Stables. Fast and fluid off the mark going seven furlongs, this bay responded to rating from John Velazquez but still drew away responsively to win by a dazzling 7 1/4 lengths (97 Beyer Speed Figure).

“We took a big chance bringing him here to run,” Baffert said post-win. “Johnny asked me, 'How Good is he?' I said, 'You ride him like you rode Uncle Mo, because I think he's Uncle Mo.' And the way he moves; he's been working with older horses-unbelievable.”

Baffert told TDN via text on Sunday he's not ready to commit to a particular comeback race and that, “We are going slow with him. No rush to run him.” But Arabian Knight is now five works into his training at Santa Anita, including a bullet six furlongs on Dec. 30, so he's got to be getting close.

For the second straight year, Churchill Downs has banished Baffert from the Derby related to his under-appeal equine drug DQ from the 2021 Derby, and his trainees are prohibited from earning qualifying points. While this issue plays out in the courts and at the racing commission level, the focus for TDN's Top 12 writeups will be on the horses and not the trainer's eligibility status.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte stamped himself as the crop-topper among up to 1 1/16 miles, and he looms as the deserving favorite for the divisional championship in the Eclipse Award voting. Two Grade I wins in his only two route attempts underscore that this son of Violence has already checked some important boxes along his development arc.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has outlined a two-prep path to Louisville that includes a sophomore debut in the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S., followed by either the GI Florida Derby or the GI Blue Grass S. This two-time auction grad ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) has proven capable of carving out fortuitous trips while negotiating large fields, largely thanks to precision far-turn targeting over short-stretch configurations at Keeneland by jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Owned in partnership by Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable, Forte outmuscled a tenacious runner-up by wresting back the lead in deep stretch of the 14-horse GI Breeders' Futurity S., and in the 10-horse GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile he adeptly reeled in the odds-on favorite while encountering no serious challengers late in the lane (100 Beyer).

Forte's biggest Derby obstacle might involve bucking a daunting historical trend: Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Derby wins (Nyquist and Street Sense) from 38 runnings.

3) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock, who races with his head slung low in a style reminiscent of his sire, Arrogate, has been likened to a big, powerful football fullback by trainer Bob Baffert. But despite being very mature-looking physically, this imposing dual sales grad ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) got so keyed up prior to his second-place finish as the beaten fave in the Breeders' Cup that the mental duress surely cost him some on-track energy.

Owned by Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman, this two-time Grade I winner unleashed a 104 Beyer in his two-turn debut, the GI American Pharoah S., while never appearing close to being fully extended.

But it was a different story a month later in the Juvenile, when Cave Rock was committed to the lead outside of a 70-1 shot through a :22.90 opening quarter, had trouble settling, then took command about halfway home with foes nipping at his heels. Approaching the far turn, it initially looked as if Cave Rock was cresting to a high cruising speed with a short-stretch finish ahead and main rival Forte six lengths behind.

But Forte was just getting wound up while Cave Rock was feeling the effects of his toil, and although Cave Rock initially met Forte's challenge, he came unhinged under left-handed stick work while languishing too long on his left lead in the stretch. He was no match for the winner, but Cave Rock left the impression that a better-focused version of him could be capable of reversing that result.

4) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $56,950. Last start: 1st Aqueduct Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 17. KY Derby Points: 0.

This gray son of Tapit who hammered for $1.3 million at KEESEP was bet down to second favoritism debuting at Aqueduct Nov. 6. A bit raw at the break of a one-turn mile from the outermost post, Tapit Trice got a decent schooling tucking in behind, then splitting horses before finishing with interest and galloping out ahead of the only two horses who beat him (73 Beyer).

Owned in partnership by Whisper Hill Farm and breeder Gainesway, this Todd Pletcher trainee learned from that experience by overcoming trip adversity to score in start number two, another one-mile-try, as the 17-10 fave Dec. 17 over a sealed, muddy Aqueduct surface.

Off slowly, Tapit Trice lagged but got maneuvered to the eight path to avoid getting pelted with kickback. It took him awhile to get into gear, tagging on to the end of the first flight about a half mile from home, then commencing a field-looping bid way out in the six path. He engaged the two leaders off the bend, maintained the upper hand when enduring some brushing and bumping from the outward-shifting second fave, then nailed the win by a neck without seeming one bit fazed by the stretch fight (89 Beyer).

The effort wasn't a spectacular, blow-away victory. But Tapit Trice completed his assigned task very capably while demonstrating there is raw, Derby-quality talent beneath a still-unpolished surface.

5) BANISHING (c, Ghostzapper–Dowager, by A.P. Indy)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $42,000. Last start: 1st Fair Grounds Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 26. KY Derby Points: 0.

A chestnut with a distinctively jagged blaze, this Godolphin homebred by Ghostzapper out of an A.P. Indy mare started his career Nov. 13 in a one-turn-mile MSW at Churchill, breaking from post 12 and racing in the 10 path early while cruising up to be within two lengths of the lead through a well-contested pace.

Banishing was four wide into the turn, quickened 3 ½ furlongs out, then got within a nostril of the lead just before the field hit the top of the stretch. He initially seemed to tire from that stout middle move, but sparked back to life late in the lane only to lose a photo for fourth behind a favored winner and a third-place horse who came back to win at 3-5 odds in a subsequent Gulfstream MSW.

On Dec. 26 at Fair Grounds, this Brendan Walsh trainee added Lasix, stretched out to 1 1/16 miles, and was sent off as the 2-1 chalk. Unhurried out of the gate, he established position at the rail in a three-way go and kept edging away under pressure. Banishing was headed off the final turn but immediately met that affront, throttling open late while leaving the second and third faves reeling in his 8 ½-length wake.

He earned a 90 Beyer, and his maiden-breaking final clocking of 1:44.80 was .05 seconds faster than the same-distance Gun Runner S. for more experienced juveniles later on the card.

6) LOGGINS (c, Ghostzapper–Beyond Blame, by Blame)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Spendthrift Farm LLC, Steve Landers Racing LLC, Martin S. Schwartz, Michael Dubb, Ten Strike Racing, Jim Bakke, Titletown Racing Stables, Kueber Racing LLC, Big Easy Racing LLC, and Winners Win; B-Popatop, LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox.  Sales history: $460,000 Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $175,500. Last start: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, Oct. 8. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Loggins ($460,000 FTSAUG) went off favored in the “loaded” (five next-out winners) Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland, and if there was such an award as the best losing effort in a juvenile stakes, his second-place try behind the No. 2-ranked Forte would have slam-dunked it for 2022.

Running back in just three weeks after a 6 ½-furlong MSW winning debut, Loggins (trained by Brad Cox and carrying the colors of Spendthrift Farm in a 10-way partnership) established strong early inside positioning amid a crush of first-turn traffic, then was content to concede the lead while covered up in third at the fence on the backstretch.

He seized the top spot 4 ½ furlongs from the wire, and although the bid initially appeared premature, Loggins confidently chugged homeward before being accosted by Forte at the head of the lane. Forte muscled in on Loggins with one furlong left, but the less-experienced Loggins gamely responded by clawing back the lead for about six jumps before Forte eked out a neck victory at the finish.

Back in October, Cox had outlined a break for Loggins that would have the colt off for about 45 days and back in his Fair Grounds barn by December. But as of Sunday, Cox told TDN via text that Loggins still “required a little extra time” away and that his return to the track would be  “soon” with no specific prep race as the target.

7) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last start: Maiden win at Santa Anita. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin, a high-energy gray whose damsire and sire (Hard Spun and Curlin), ran second and third in the 2007 Derby, achieved 'TDN Rising Star' status in his Dec. 26 debut when he cuffed around a MSW sprint crew at Santa Anita in a manner more impressive than his 2 ¾-length winning margin and 89 Beyer might suggest.

Off a beat slow, this Bob Baffert trainee for owner Michael Lund Petersen was quickly hustled into contention by jockey Ramon Vazquez, but the hole they were aiming for closed just as the field cleared the gap. Continuously kept busy, Faustin accelerated as asked while Vazquez kept shifting laterally in an effort to pick a stalking spot, twice coming off the inside and then dropping back near the fence again in his run down the backstretch and through the turn.

At the head of the homestretch, Faustin lost momentum (but just momentarily) when he twice had to be snatched off heels and switched outward to clear rivals. But once he saw daylight, this colt ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR) didn't need much encouragement to kick into a willing overdrive just outside the sixteenth pole.

Faustin was digging in and appeared to be relishing the task; in this era of top prospects racing only sparingly, he has already cleared the “overcomes adversity” hurdle well ahead of most of his peers.

8) SIGNATOR (c, Tapit–Pension, by Seeking the Gold) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr. and Lane's End Racing. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds. T-Claude McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,700,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $71,250. Last Start: Maiden win at BAQ Oct. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

With a pedigree topped by Tapit out of a Seeking the Gold mare, Signator wasn't expected to excel sprinting in his Sept. 16 debut. But after racing a bit greenly in upper stretch, this $1.7 million OBSAPR colt made the most out of that experience by finishing with a visual flourish through the final sixteenth to gain second before galloping out with purpose past the winner.

Start number two was a muddy mile over a drying-out Aqueduct surface, and as the 3-5 favorite, Signator absorbed some bumping out of the gate, then raced with his head cocked toward the infield under a snug grab down the backstretch. Through most of the far turn, Javier Castellano kept Signator on hold near the fence behind a four-horse wall while gambling that inside passage would open up, and when it did, Signator pulsed on through like a pro, earning 'TDN Rising Star' placement in the process.

Owned by an eight-way partnership, Signator was scratched from the Nov. 6 GII Nashua S. because of a wrenched ankle that has reportedly since healed. He rejoined trainer Shug McGuaghey's Payson Park string in Florida three weeks ago and just hit the work tab on Dec. 31. His pair of relatively low 73 Beyers might be cause for pause for some Derby prognosticators, but Signator rates higher on the “how he did it” scale rather than “how fast.”

9) VICTORY FORMATION (c, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Spendthrift Farm & Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $100,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $282,285. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., Jan.1 at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 10.

Well-bet, wire-to-wire winners have now captured the ungraded (but points-awarding) Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn in five of the past six years after the coast-to-coast score by Victory Formation ($100,00 KEENOV; $150,000 FTKJUL; $340,000 EASMAY) on Sunday.

A 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' owned in partnership by Spendthrift Farm and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, this son of Tapwrit's heavy lifting on Jan. 1 consisted largely of clearing a pesky 56-1 shot while breaking from post eight.

After an up-tempo opening quarter of :23.20,  Flavien Prat reeled off consecutive quarters of :24.55, :24.61 and :25.78 to coast home unopposed by three lengths at 3-5 odds in 1:38.14 for the short-stretch mile (91 Beyer).

“This horse has a great mind. He doesn't overdo it in the morning. He settles and I think the farther the better,” said trainer Brad Cox. ” He's got a lot of natural speed.”

10) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms. B-Nursery Place & Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $46,750. Last Start: Aqueduct Maiden win Nov. 19. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Litigate, a $370,000 KEESEP buy for Centennial Farms, was sent to trainer Todd Pletcher. According to DRF's Formulator, that owner/trainer partnership is a first (at least as far back as the database goes), and it got off to a good start when this nice-striding son of Blame won at first asking sprinting 6 ½ furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19.

Javier Castellano asked Litigate for just enough speed to attain a sweet stalking spot behind a three-way battle for the lead, then patiently took the overland route four deep through the turn. Litigate responded to several judicious cracks of the crop in upper stretch, was still third at the eighth pole, but finished up respectably under brisk hand urging to win by three-quarters of a length (76 Beyer).

Litigate will next try a first-level allowance/optional claimer Dec. 8 at Gulfstream. Every entrant in the field of eight is first-time Lasix, with none of them entered for a tag.

11) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $322,815. Last Start: Won Nov. 26 GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Kentucky Derby Points: 12.

Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) sprung a 14-1 upset at Saratoga in his seven-furlong debut, then was one of four next-out stakes winners to emerge from the key Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland, a race in which he rallied from tenth to get fourth. That effort was good enough to merit favoritism in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Nov. 26 at Churchill.

This $200,000 KEESEP colorbearer for Gold Square, LLC, and trainer Brad Cox was slightly hesitant at the start, then kicked into a smooth stride. After going four wide into the first turn, Instant Coffee tucked into the three path to be a midpack fifth behind a slow pace down the backstraight, then was roused assertively by Luis Saez some 3 ½ furlongs from home while again four deep on the bend.

He gave up even more ground off the final turn, but doing so freed Instant Coffee from a logjam of tiring horses toward the inside, and he responded to Saez' repeated rousing with a grinding tenacity. He momentarily shied from the outward shifting of a more physically imposing rival shortly after grabbing a brief lead at the eighth pole, but only for a stride or two before leveling off with purpose to win by 1 ¼ lengths.

Instant Coffee's lack of progression based on Beyers (debut of 85, then 81 and 82) kept him from being ranked higher at this early juncture of the season.

12) JACE'S ROAD (c, Quality Road–Out Post, by Silver Deputy) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-Colts Neck Stables (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $510,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-2-0-1, $126,800. Last Start: Won Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds Dec. 26. Kentucky Derby Points: 13.

'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road, a $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, got back to his winning ways in the Gun Runner S. Dec. 26 as the second betting choice after what trainer Brad Cox had described as a “meltdown” eighth-place try as the beaten fave in his previous stakes attempt.

Owned in partnership by West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables, Jace's Road's Fair Grounds performance is best described as a no-nonsense wiring through moderate-tempo splits.

He got a bit of a break when the favorite stumbled at the start and was relegated to chase mode for most of the race, and the only challenger within sniffing distance of his 5 ½-length winning margin (90 Beyer) was a pick-up-the-pieces 23-1 long shot.

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Sent off the 14-5 second favorite off a forgettable and forgivable eighth-place effort as the favorite in a sloppy renewal of the GIII Street Sense S. at Churchill Downs Oct. 30, the $510,000 Keeneland September graduate found his way to the front as Determinedly–off at 4-5–bobbled slightly and though pressured, was able to race well within himself for the opening three-quarters of a mile. Narrowly in front as they reached the long Fair Grounds straight, he responded to a vigorous Florent Geroux drive from and kept finding through the final furlong to score nicely by five lengths. Raise Cain (Violence) was up on the line to touch the odds-on pop out of second.

Named a 'Rising Star' on Ellis debut back in August, Jace's Road was an educational third in the GIII Iroquois S. Sept. 17, but was reportedly out of sorts from as early as the paddock prior to the Street Sense, was rambunctious and dropped Geroux at the gates pre-start, caught a sloppy track to boot and did no running whatsoever.

The 65th stakes winner for Quality Road, Jace's Road hails from the female family of champion Silverbulletday (Silver Deputy) and GISW Forest Secrets (Forest Wildcat) and has a weanling half-sister by Curlin. Out Post was barren to Quality Road for 2023. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

GUN RUNNER S., $98,000, Fair Grounds, 12-26, 2yo, 1 1/16m, 1:44.85, ft.
1–JACE'S ROAD, 122, c, 2, by Quality Road
1st Dam: Out Post (MSP, $203,690), by Silver Deputy
2nd Dam: Secret Wildcat, by Forest Wildcat
3rd Dam: Garden Secrets, by Time for a Change
1ST BLACK-TYPE WIN. ($510,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY); T-Brad H Cox; J-Florent Geroux. $60,000. Lifetime Record: 4-2-0-1, $126,800.
2–Raise Cain, 122, c, 2, Violence–Lemon Belle, by Lemon Drop Kid. ($180,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $65,000 RNA 2yo '22 OBSOPN). O-Andrew N & Rania Warren; B-Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Ben Colebrook. $20,000.
3–Determinedly, 122, c, 2, Cairo Prince–Bailzee, by Grand Slam. ($80,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). 1ST BLACK-TYPE. O-John C Oxley; B-Bedouin Bloodstock LLC (KY); T-Mark E Casse. $10,000.
Margins: 5HF, HD, 3. Odds: 2.40, 23.60, 0.90.
Also Ran: Hayes Strike, Andthewinneris, Old Alliance, Mazing Mark.

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