But what does a “'bounce” really mean? It refers to a horse that had a recent fast performance, several tough races in a short period or many races in a racing campaign. The handicapper is implicitly (and unknowingly) using basic biology to posit that a given horse did not have enough time to recuperate before the next race. But what if this notion of “bounce” has more serious implications beyond performance intersecting with that of safety? Well, apparently it does.

After the deaths at Santa Anita in 2019, I began to observe the records of horses that had catastrophic injuries. A certain number seemed to be horses whose racing and training schedule appeared excessive. While it is impossible to say with certainty that over-racing was the case individually, I surmised it had to be one factor in catastrophic injury in the aggregate. Now HISA apparently is looking at this angle regarding horse safety. In its, 2023 Equine Fatalities: HISA's Strategic Response under “data analysis,” it asks, “Would a maximum number of high-speed furlongs (published works and races) either lifetime or within a rolling period reduce equine injury?” The issue is finally on the table in racing's most significant institution.

Dr. Sue Stover, chair of the HISA Racetrack Safety Committee, goes well beyond what handicappers have noticed in their “bounce” notion only to prognosticate a poor performance for a horse. Dr. Stover in the Spring 2023 Churchill Downs Equine Fatalities: HISA Findings under the category “high speed exercise analysis,” concluded–after comparing the Churchill deaths to the control group- -that (indeed) the deceased horses had more races per year and that the data coincides with the notion that, “frequent high injury exercise (as observed in injured horses) that does not allow for recovery of exercise-induced microdamage contributes to the development of stress fractures and subchondral stress which presupposes horses to catastrophic injuries.” Dr. Stover is based at UC Davis and their veterinary webpage regarding catastrophic injuries to racehorses includes “training intensity” as a risk factor.  Thus, from Dr. Stover's remarks, the science on thoroughbred injury has already progressed to a point where the new (Churchill) data is being amalgamated with existing hypotheses.

The notion that with the recent deaths at Saratoga and Churchill Downs there is no one risk factor in common does not mean that several risk factors are not known. The industry has come a long way since 2019 and many risk factors or pre-existing conditions are known including the over-racing of horses.

I do not want to mention individual horses as it is impossible to know with certainty in any single case whether a horse's racing and training schedule was the main culprit in a breakdown. Too often, in my view, trainers are being cast as “bad guys” and that's too easy a way to address industry wide problems in relation to safety. And my point is not to prove this notion as it is already part of the science on racing injury.

I wish merely to bring the issue out from the shadows to be part of a necessary discussion on horse safety. But I will relate a few high-profile examples of a horse's racing schedule in horses that broke down in top races dating back to 2019 without mentioning the name of the horse.

• Horse A had 13 races in 11 months and broke down in a grade 1 race,
• Horse B had 10 races in 12 months mostly at the grade 1 level and died after a workout,
• Horse C raced 11 times in 10 months breaking down in a grade 3 stakes,
• Horse D had 4 races in 4 ½ months moving up into a grade 1 with less than a month off.

There are other high and low-profile examples and again HISA, in their report, summarizes the horse's racing schedule as part of their analysis. Of course, many horses can handle a tough schedule–there is genetic variation in any species. Nonetheless, the over-racing of a horse is one risk factor that has to be addressed in any overall plan regarding horse safety. It intersects with other issues like medication: rest versus therapy.

Why this factor of over-racing a horse has been understated in recent discussion of horse fatalities until now is due, I suspect, to the implications on possible restrictions for the scheduling of a horse's campaign. It may mean limiting the number of starts per horse per racing level, age, etc. It obviously casts a doubt about the spacing of racing's greatest event: The Triple Crown.

Yes, I support 1/ST Racing's Aidan Butler's efforts to move the Preakness date because of the safety issue alone. Yes, it would be a tough go to factor in a horse's schedule regarding an overall safety plan for thoroughbred racing. But if the horse racing industry is going to completely address the issue of safety, the over-racing of horses (not the racing but the over-racing of a horse) needs to be looked at. There is not a good alternative to not do so.

–Armen Antonian Ph.D.

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The Brazilian Thoroughbred industry lost one of its most brilliant personalities when Samir Abujamra passed away in Soo Paulo on July 14. Abujamra, who had no family connections to the Brazilian racing industry growing up, was a lawyer by trade. He worked as a handicapper for the Jockey Club of Sao Paulo beginning in the 1960's. Later on, he became the editor of the magazine Revista Turf & Fomento.

The publication became the most important magazine in horse racing in the country, covering not only Brazil, but results from all over the world. It was through Turf & Fomento that Abujamra started to maintain contact with various players in the international racing scene. From then on, he had the opportunity to make what perhaps was his most important professional incursion.

Still in the 1960s, Abujamra attended the sales in Newmarket for the first time. He soon became the Brazilian representative at the British Bloodstock Agency (BBA)–which during the last half of the 20th century, was the most prominent agency in the world. He was present at the Tattersalls December Sales for more than 50 years without interruption and was awarded a medal recognizing his contributions as their South American representative over such an extended period.

“Samir represented Tattersalls in South America for many years and epitomised all that is good about the global thoroughbred industry,” said Jimmy George of Tattersalls. “He was knowledgeable, charming, immaculate and a man of the utmost integrity. He was so proud that he had attended more than 50 consecutive December Sales and it was always a joy to see him.”

From the moment he extended his activities to international racing, Abujamra started to operate as a focal point of information and knowledge for a wide range of breeders and owners based in Brazil. In this context, many began to use him as an advisor and for the acquisition of animals abroad. One of the imports Abujamra selected was Ghadeer (Fr) (Lyphard), perhaps the most influential among all the stallions in the country's history. Roi Normand (Exclusive Native), who also left a huge legacy, was a product of an Abujamra negotiation. He also brokered the export of ex-pat American stallion New Year's Day (Street Cry {Ire}) to Japan.

“Samir was a true gentleman and the ultimate professional,” said Luis Felipe Brandão dos Santos, President of the Brazilian Breeders and Owners Association. “He was our role model and inspiration. The Brazilian racing industry thanks Samir Abujamra for so much.”

Besides brokering horse sales, Abujamra aided in the implementation of the database and research tool of the Brazilian Stud Book in the 1990s. In the 2000s, he welcomed and guided the late Prince Khalid Abdullah of Juddmonte during a visit to the racetrack in Sao Paulo.

In addition to the two decades of collaboration with Turf & Fomento, Abujamra published the book Turfe–Historias e Memorias in 2010 and more recently, he launched Conversas de Turfe. In the writing of the latter, he proposed to share a little about the history of the great breeders of the world–an arduous task for any writer, even though he was already in poor health.

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The Delaware native started his career at the Stanton-oval as the host of the local replay show on cable in 1987. He also developed and hosted the “Delaware Racing Scene Show” highlighting the best of Delaware Park racing and the sport on the national level. In his more than three decades at Delaware Park, Glazier held numerous positions including paddock handicapper and analyst where he became popular with his insightful and fun interviews with almost every popular personality in Mid-Atlantic racing.

As a lifelong fan of Delaware Park, he took tremendous pride in only missing one Delaware Handicap which was in 1968 while he was serving one of his two tours during his 18 months of service as a veteran in the intelligence division of the U.S. Army during the Vietnam War.

“He was more than I could have ever hoped for when we brought him on board in 1987,” said Executive Director of Racing, John Mooney. “When he first approached me with the idea of working at Delaware Park and hosting a cable show highlighting racing, I was not sure. He was married with two young children and he wanted to give up his job as an accountant to work at a track that at the time was struggling. But he made it work and he did an incredible and professional job. He gained the respect of everyone and made friends throughout the industry. He was as great a representative for Delaware Park as there could be and he will be greatly missed.”

Glazier is survived by his wife of 49 years, Amy; sons David and Michael; daughters-in-law Katie and Julie; grandchildren Sydney, Zachary, Jacob, Samuel, and Nora; brother Brad; sister-in-law Michelle; and niece Jenna.

In lieu of flowers, family suggests donations to St. Jude's Hospital for Children, the Siegel JCC Senior Center, or charity of choice.

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“I've heard the Secretariat Turf Course is the best grass surface in the country, and it's my favorite kind of racing,” Paquette said. “Being able to talk about beautiful pedigrees on a great grass course just lights my soul on fire. Turf is a much more specific surface than dirt. Some horses will love it and some will only take to that specific course.”

Since Suffolk closed, Paquette served as on-camera handicapper for the Sam Houston Thoroughbred meet this past winter. In a Covid-pandemic environment, she performed the job remotely, from a studio she set up in her closet. And in March, she became the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation's Director of Communications & the Annual Fund. The position allows her to work from home in the Northern Shore of Massachusetts where she owns two off-track Thoroughbreds.

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Jessica Paquette, long time handicapper at Suffolk Downs and most recently Sam Houston, will make her debut in New Kent replacing Merv Huber, who is unable to travel to Colonial Downs this season but will stay on as morning line odds maker and provide guest analysis.

The 36-year-old Lowell, Massachusetts native is excited to be part of the Colonial Downs team, and the track's signature racing surface is a big reason why.

“I've heard the Secretariat Turf Course is the best grass surface in the country, and it's my favorite kind of racing. Being able to talk about beautiful pedigrees on a great grass course just lights my soul on fire. Turf is a much more specific surface than dirt. Some horses will love it and some will only take to that specific course.”

Colonial is known for having large fields that compete on grass, but Paquette seems unfazed by the challenge of picking winners for viewers. “I'm a real pedigree nerd,” she said. “With grass races, you can find horses with hidden turf pedigrees that just jump up and surprise you. I'll provide insights during the paddock show on specific horse flesh I notice. I'm a day-to-day horse person. I'll be getting a sense of the barns on site and watching patterns. I'll be familiarizing myself with the trainer colony. I'll be taking a lot of notes. I think you can stumble across a lot of nice horses that way.”

Growing up, Paquette's parents did not have a background or interest in horses, so her equine passion began with participation in the 'Kids to the Cup' program as a young teenager. She never looked back.

“Once I got involved in 'Kids to the Cup' (KTTC) 25 years ago, it changed my life. It put me on the path to get where I am today. I was a nerdy horse crazy kid back then and I just fell in love with racing during that golden era of the '90's when Silver Charm and Skip Away were racing. It just captivated me. Nothing fills me with as much joy as being at a racetrack and being up close,” she added. “No matter what breed, I love watching all horses turn left.””

From KTTC, she started out as a hotwalker at Rockingham Park, then went on to work as a mutuels clerk and followed that with an internship in the publicity department. After those experiences, she landed another internship at Suffolk Downs and never left. Paquette spent the next 14 years at Suffolk where she rose through the ranks to become Senior VP of Marketing and an on camera personality and handicapper.

Suffolk closed its doors for good in June, 2019 after 84 years in business. Rockingham previously closed in 2016. Both closures hit Paquette hard.

“As a fan, I watched Rockingham close and it was heartbreaking. It was the first place I saw a live horse race. At Suffolk, I was helping run the place so mourning the loss of something I Ioved so much was tough but I had to be professional about it. The day still had to go on. Putting on a public face when your heart is being ripped to pieces was challenging. We sent the old girl off the best way we could,” Paquette added. “The last day was a celebration. I watched the last race from the roof by myself. Those are memories I'll take with me the rest of my life.”

Since Suffolk closed, Paquette served as on camera handicapper for the Sam Houston thoroughbred meet this past winter. In a Covid-pandemic environment, she performed the job remotely, from a studio she set up in her closet. And in March, she became the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation's Director of Communications & the Annual Fund. The position allows her to work from home in the Northern Shore of Massachusetts where she owns two Off Track Thoroughbreds.

What A Trippi, retired now from success in the show ring — which came after collecting 9 wins in 42 starts as a racehorse — occupies some of her home time now along with Puget Sound, who after 84 starts is enjoying time as a “pasture ornament” according to Paquette.

“Those two fill my day every day,” she said. “Aftercare is the most important thing to me. I'm grateful to be in a position to be able to give back professionally. Every good thing in my life has come from horses so giving back means a lot. I think thoroughbreds are the greatest athletes. They can do anything you ask of them, as long as you ask them correctly.” Colonial Downs and the VHBPA contribute $15 each to the TAA for every start during the race meet.

Paquette will arrive in New Kent on July 15 and go on camera from the paddock around 1:30 PM four days later. “After giving my picks remotely, I can't wait to see horses again in person.”

Colonial's season will continue through September 1 with racing every Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday at 1:45 PM. The $250,000 New Kent County Virginia Derby (Gr. 3) highlights meet festivities on Tuesday August 31. Paquette not only gets to provide selections for all races held over the 180-foot-wide turf course and 1 1/4 miles dirt track, she gets to work with some of her best friends as well.

“I was in 'Kids to the Cup' with Merv Huber when we were horse crazy wild-eyed children and we've been friends since. Jason Beem (Colonial track announcer) is one of my best friends. And I'm looking forward to working with Jill Byrne (Colonial VP of Racing) who I have so much respect for. She is a pioneer in racing and an inspiration. I'm just really excited for this opportunity,” she added. “When racing in Suffolk ended in 2019, it was easy to think that your best days are behind you when the thing you love most goes away. Not so any more.”

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“Working with someone as knowledgeable and respected as Eddie is a true honor, and the quality insight and analysis he provides to our customers each week is unmatched,” said Zachary Leifer, chief marketing officer of 1/ST TECHNOLOGY. “We could not be more excited to be keeping Eddie in the 1/ST family, and we look forward to expanding upon our partnership to further differentiate 1/ST BET as the “Players' ADW.”

With 1/ST BET, Olczyk's picks and insights are available to bettors on a regular basis through emails. blog posts, wager guides, video interviews and more. 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are cornerstone products, along with BETMIX, in the suite of betting tools from 1/ST TECHNOLOGY – the world's leading gambling platform and technology company. Other 1/ST TECHNOLOGY brands include AmTote, XB SELECT, XB NET and PariMAX.

“This deal represents the alignment between the vision of 1/ST, their continued investment and dedication to horse racing, and my passion for the sport. And as a bettor who has personally used and believed in these products for more than two decades, extending my partnership was a no-brainer,” said Olczyk. “I am proud to say that I am a part of the 1/ST BET team.”

Since 2015, Olczyk has served as lead handicapper for NBC's coverage of major horse racing events like the Preakness Stakes, Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup.  He was the winner of the 2018 Pegasus World Cup Betting Championship, a handicapping tournament with a $371,000 prize pool, and in 2009 famously hit a bet for $497,000 using his Xpressbet account, in which he correctly picked the winner of six straight races.

Beyond horse racing, Olczyk is a 16-year NHL veteran, a Stanley Cup winner, and was inducted into the U.S. Hockey Hall of Fame in 2013. He currently serves as the lead game analyst for the NHL on NBC.

As a 1/ST BET ambassador, Olczyk will be the face of promotions, sweepstakes and tournaments, including the “Big Bet” sweepstakes, which give the company's customers the opportunity to make life-changing bets on marquee races like the Pegasus World Cup and the Preakness Stakes.

Throughout the pandemic, 1/ST TECHNOLOGY has seen an uptick in sports bettors, and both novice and expert bettors rely on insights from handicappers like Olczyk, as well as the artificial intelligence platform within 1/ST BET, to make more informed wagers.

For more information, visit https://www.1st.com/bet

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“I do mostly retirement planning. It's all I've ever done and I really do love it,” said Deicke, who also serves as a mentor for prospective NHC players. “The market has its ups and downs and managing expectations is probably harder than managing the money, but I enjoy it. I do math during the week and I do even more math on the weekends.”

Although currently enjoying winter as a snowbird in Florida, Deicke said he was raised on New York racing.

“I was born and bred at NYRA. My father brought me to Belmont Park when I was 13-years-old and it was a group of guys who loved sports and horse racing and loved to gamble and have a couple cocktails,” said Deicke. “They'd sit around and tell big stories which my father later told me none of them were true. The horse they needed didn't lose by a nose; it lost by two lengths and it didn't cost them $10,000, it only cost them $300. But it was just great fun.”

Deicke reconnected with horse racing when he attended the 1998 Preakness at Pimlico Race Course, watching with a group of friends who hailed from the Floral Park area near Belmont Park and cheered home Kentucky Derby-winner Real Quiet.

“Three weeks later, Real Quiet took a big lead in the Belmont,” recalled Deicke. “He looked like he was going to break the string of all those years without a Triple Crown winner, but Victory Gallop got him by a nose that day.”

Deicke had his first major tournament experience at the 2017 Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge [BCBC] at Del Mar in San Diego.

“I took my son-in-law to Del Mar for the BCBC and we came in tenth,” recalled Deicke. “We were first or second at one point in that tournament and had a great weekend. If I knew then what I know now, we maybe could have won.”

Deicke said that learning when and how to make big bets on key races requires experience. That first Breeders' Cup learning experience centered around lessons learned from Bar of Gold's win in the Filly and Mare Sprint [Race 6, $135.40] and Wuheida's victory [Race 7, $24.40] in the Filly and Mare Turf.

“On Saturday, my partner said his best bet was Wuheida and I said that's funny, that's my best bet,” recalled Deicke. “Right before the Filly and Mare Sprint, we hadn't made many bets and were down to $6,000. I knew we had to start betting about $900 per race five times, those were the rules. I forget who I liked, but he liked Bar of Gold, who won at 66-1. We had the exacta [with Ami's Mesa] for $2 and got back $2,000.

“We also both loved Roy H [won the Sprint in Race 8 and paid $11.80],” added Deicke. “Thing is, I'd never made a $900 bet in my life. We couldn't even conceive of betting that type of money. I was a $20-$20 win/place bettor back then. Now I'm a $50-$50 bettor. We probably should have played the $900 double Wuheida onto Roy H [which returned $160.80 for $2] and we loved the exacta cold in the Sprint [onto Imperial Hint, which returned $25.80 for $1].”

Deicke said he went into the Breeders' Cup Classic with a chance to win the BCBC and had $4,000 to win on Gunnevera, who finished fifth at 15-1. His final bankroll of $48,860.50 was good for tenth place purse money of $25,000 and a seat in the NHC.

The winner, Nisan Gabbay, turned his day around with a $4,000 win bet on Talismanic, who won the Turf at 14-1. Gabbay closed his day with a $15,000 exacta of Gun Runner on top of Collected [which paid $17 for $1] that ballooned his winning bankroll to $176,000, earning $300,000 in purse money and an NHC seat.

“It was a day of days. I've never had as good a day handicapping as I had that day and I came in tenth,” said Deicke. “I've since won other contests that I didn't see as well, but now I understand the betting of the contests.”

Deicke said the 2017 BCBC was a game-changing experience.

“Now, I'm in the NYRA contest every week and I try to win free entries into the Breeders' Cup and NHC,” said Deicke. “I've done pretty well at the NHC the past few years. Last year, I came in 20th and the year before I was around 50th out of 600 people.”

But not everyone has to dive in at the deep end. The NYRA Challenge series includes weekly tournaments that start with a $300 buy-in and offers cash prizes and seats in future challenge events. In all events, NYRA returns 100 percent of the prize pool to the players.

“In general, you're betting with takeout and then in the contest you bet with no takeout and that's an advantage for the player,” said Deicke. “And I love that the weekly contests are $300, so you can start to participate in tournaments for smaller amounts of money that can get you into bigger tournaments. You can work your way up to winning an NHC seat and that's great for the players.”

There are significant differences in strategies from the NHC contest – where players make a series of $2 win/place bets on a set number of races – and cash tournaments, like the BCBC or the $3,000 Gotham Challenge, where before the end of the tournament, a contestant must wager a minimum of $400 in a permitted wager type [Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Trifecta, Quinella, and Daily Double] per race on a minimum of five (5) Challenge Races.

Deicke said he uses Thoro-Graph sheets and the Daily Racing Form as key study aids for his tournament play along with select race replays via NYRA Bets.

“If I see a troubled-trip line of steady or checked, I'll re-watch the race,” said Deicke. “Sometimes, a horse will steady and check when they're about to win and sometimes it happens when they're about to lose and the fact that they're losing momentum and the jockey is checking them up doesn't matter.”

The now veteran player said he has learned to keep an open mind and bet the board.

“I study the morning of the tournament and try to make my decisions as late as possible,” said Deicke. “I don't want to get focused in on one particular thing. Also, the board can vastly change how you play a given race. One thing I've learned at tournaments is you can sit there all day to bet a 10-1 shot in the last race and the horse will open up at 5-2 because everybody else likes it too.”

“If speed is winning or the inside is good, I can adapt a little bit,” added Deicke. “I keep a journal of every tournament I'm in and write down every bet I make – from the type of race to the bet itself and the result.”

Deicke said adaptability is a key component of tournament play, referencing the recent Cigar Mile Challenge.

“You have to be flexible,” said Deicke. “I loved True Timber that day. He was 10-1. But the tournament rules said you had to make five $40 bets, so I picked a few 3-5 shots to show that I thought couldn't lose so I could bet it all on True Timber in the last race.”

The strategy did not pan out with a number of his horses running off the board. At the penultimate race, the Grade 2 Demoiselle, Deicke spent his remaining $120 on a cold double of Malathaat onto True Timber in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile.

“Malathaat just got up to win and then True Timber won and catapulted me into second,” said Deicke. “What I planned to do when the day started and what I ended up doing at day's end to be successful were two different things.”

True Timber paid $16.60 to win, capping a double that paid $16.40 for $1.

Deicke said he will play the Gotham Challenge ($2,000 Live Bankroll/$1,000 Prize Pool) which in addition to significant prize money also offers two NHC seats along with a seat at a future $3,000 NYRA Challenge event.

“Those NHC seats are valuable,” said Deicke. “Anyone out there wanting to play the Gotham Challenge because they want to win an NHC seat, I'd totally recommend it.

“My goal every year is to double qualify for the NHC,” added Deicke. “It's not just for the money. The first place prize last year was $800,000 but they also give you an Eclipse Award as handicapper of the year. That trophy is going to go up in the middle of our house enclosed in glass with a big picture of me smiling ear to ear with a check in my hands. I'll build a shrine in my house if I ever win it.”

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