A total of eight juveniles–half fillies and half colts–led the way Sunday morning with joint :9 4/5 moves. WinStar's freshman sire Improbable was the only sire to be represented by a pair of session-topping workers–Hip 131, a colt out of I Know That Mom (Distorted Humor) (S G V Thoroughbreds LLC), and Hip 133, a colt out of MSW and MGSP I'm Betty G (Into Mischief) (Wavertree Stables). Also among the fastest eighth-working colts Sunday was Hip 87, a Florida-bred colt by Neolithic out of Harbor Sunset (Fast Anna) (Grassroots Training & Sales LLC), in addition to a Florida-bred son of Army Mule, Hip 108, out of GSP Hermione's Magic (Forest Wildcat) (Envision Equine, Agent).

Leading the fillies Sunday were Hip 28, a daughter of Gun Runner out of Forest Valentine (Forestry) (de Meric Sales, Agent VIII) ; Hip 32, a Florida-bred by Girvin out of Foxy Mischief (Into Mischief) (Six K's Training & Sales LLC, Agent VI) and Hip 102, a Kentucky-bred daughter of Authentic out of GSP Heavenly Hill (City Zip) (Grassroots Training & Sales LLC).

The connections of Hip 173 (Grade I Investments) hope that lightening can strike twice for Florida's freshman sire Win Win Win, who had a filly bring $1.8 million to top the final session of the OBS March sale. Out of Lookin At Lucky's Jilly, the Sunshine State-bred filly is from the family of Grade I winners Roman Ruler and El Corredor.

A pair of juveniles posted a session-heading :20.3 quarter miles Sunday. Hip 166 (Tom McCrocklin), a filly by Uncle Mo, recorded the day's co-fastest time at the distance. A half-sister to GISP Be You (Curlin), the May 16 foal is out of Jacaranda (Congrats), herself a half-sister to Group 2 scorer Boynton (More Than Ready), in addition to dual Grade I winning sire Constitution. A colt by freshman sire Mr. Money (Hip 9) equaled the day's fastest time for Omar Ramirez Bloodstock. The Florida-bred is out of Fast City (Half Ours).

Sessions begin each day at 8 a.m. The breeze schedule for the remaining days are–hips 174-345 on Monday; hips 346-518 on Tuesday, hips 519-690 on Wednesday; hips 691-863 on Thursday; hips 864- 1035 on Friday; and hips 1036-1208 on Saturday.

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Thanks to the contentious prohibition of his ban by a gaming corporation, GI Arkansas Derby winner Muth is ineligible to give Good Magic a second GI Kentucky Derby from two attempts. (Though the Hill 'n' Dale sire might yet manage that with the same mare who gave him the first one, with Mage's brother Dornoch heading to the GI Blue Grass S. this weekend.) The stunning return to form of Fierceness in Saturday's other big rehearsal meanwhile renewed that colt's priceless service to City of Light.

Over the water, a Classic coronation is widely anticipated for the Justify colt who achieved equivalent superiority over his crop in Europe last year, City Of Troy. Oscar Performance, for his part, was so unabashed by last week's celebration of his work that his three runners last Saturday comprised two new stakes winners plus the neck runner-up in a graded stakes. Army Mule and Girvin have maintained terrific ratios from limited opportunity; the latter's neighbor Collected is quietly moving up the rail; and of course it was Bolt d'Oro who headed the whole class, as freshmen, in 2022.

Some of these impressive young sires will have to ride out a familiar bump in the road, their books having dwindled as commercial breeders showed their habitual nervousness about reputations actually being tested on the racetrack. The traffic of several duly rallied last year: Girvin, for instance, from 86 to 181; Oscar Performance from 63 to 160; Army Mule from 115 to 199; Good Magic from 126 to 179; Justify from 156 to 222. But that extra quantity, often matched by extra quality, obviously won't tell on the racetrack for a couple of years yet.

Expectations about City of Light had been so high (his fee, most unusually, was hiked from $40,000 to $60,000 after a stellar debut at the yearling sales) that he actually lost support last year, down to 85 from 132, but his quiet start was then redressed by the emergence from his second crop of Fierceness. Remember that City of Light was himself a fairly late developer, not really breaking out until the GI Malibu S. at the end of his sophomore campaign, and none of his stock has yet reached the maturity that disclosed the peak of his prowess. Nonetheless he has been prudently returned to $35,000 for the current season, an acknowledgement that he still only has one other winner at graded stakes level (Mimi Kakushi, UAE Oaks).

It says much about the way these Thoroughbreds like to tease us that the owner of Fierceness, such a committed spender at the yearling sales, should have come up with consecutive champion juveniles that were respectively a $110,000 Book 4 yearling (co-owned with St. Elias Stables) and a homebred.

As has been well chronicled, Fierceness is out of a daughter of Nonna Mia (Empire Maker), named for Mike Repole's grandmother (“nonna”) and one of the foundations of his program when acquired as a $200,000 Saratoga yearling in 2008. Herself precocious and Grade I-placed, Nonna Mia gave Repole a homebred scorer at that level in Outwork (by the horse that really put him on the map, Uncle Mo), while her own pedigree had meanwhile been gilded by the emergence of three-parts brother Cairo Prince (Pioneerof The Nile).

In a light career, Nonna Mia's daughter by Stay Thirsty, Nonna Bella, won her first two starts and only missed black type by a neck. Nonna Bella's first two named foals, both by Uncle Mo, did not make the track, but the explosive debut of Fierceness at Saratoga last summer certainly proved well timed for the family: a couple of weeks later Nonna Bella's half-brother by Into Mischief topped the September Sale at $3 million, Repole himself retaining a stake alongside West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Thoroughbreds and Chuck Sonson.

All in all, then, this has become a pretty illustrious family and Fierceness, when he goes to stud, can duly be promoted as born for the job-especially if his own sire, having capitalized on its precocity and class, can now keep consolidating.

Background Genes Needed Against Throwback Horse

Muth's performance the same afternoon itself underlined the freakish talent of Fierceness, as he had been the least embarrassed of his panting pursuers at the Breeders' Cup last fall.

Muth | Coady

In contrast with all the action under Nonna Mia, Muth has a compressed page: he's the first foal of a mare who was herself one of just two named foals out of her own mother. Obviously shoppers at OBS last March had all the evidence of functionality they could require, however, and Muth duly turned himself into a spectacular pinhook: sold to Bishop Bloodstock for $190,000 at Keeneland the previous September, he left Top Line Sales for $2 million. The gentleman who signed the docket is a genius at any level of the market, and Muth has already paid off three-quarters of that investment with a stud career now secure.

Muth was bred by Don Alberto Corporation out of Hoppa (Uncle Mo), who had shown bright ability in a curtailed career, romping in a Churchill sprint maiden on her second start but derailing next time. Hoppa had herself been acquired in utero when Don Alberto gave $170,000 for her dam Handoverthecat (Tale Of The Cat), winner of two of five starts, at the 2015 Keeneland November Sale. Unfortunately they appear to have lost her after delivering only one more foal, a son of Tiznow, though at least he covered her purchase cost-to the cent-when sold as a yearling. And Hoppa has meanwhile become so valuable that an attempt to cash her out at Fasig-Tipton last November, carrying a sibling to Muth, stalled at $1.9 million.

Though his foreshortened page obviously doesn't increase their actual influence, Muth must advertise such interesting genes as he can and those are all clustered around his fourth dam, Beautiful Bedouin (His Majesty). She was an unraced half-sister to Silver Hawk, third in the Derby at Epsom and one of the most inspired stallion discoveries of the late Brereton C. Jones.

One of her daughters similarly had a transatlantic impact: Wandering Star (Red Ransom) was a stakes winner in Europe before being acquired by Joseph Allen and winning the GII E.P. Taylor S., while two of her sons became juvenile Group winners in Allen's silks: War Command (War Front) won two of Britain's signature juvenile prizes for Ballydoyle (G1 Dewhurst/G2 Coventry); and Naval Officer (Tale Of The Cat), the G3 Prix de Conde.

Beautiful Bedouin had two other foals by Red Ransom: one produced a Classic winner in New Zealand, Rollout The Carpet (Holy Roman Emperor {Ire}); the other is the third dam of Muth. She, too, was unraced, meaning that the first four dams of Muth have a grand total of eight starts between them.

That history of fragility finds a striking contrast in the colt whose pursuit of Muth on Saturday carried him so far clear of the third. The way Just Steel (Justify) is thriving on his 11 starts is not only a trademark of his venerable trainer but also offers his young sire scope for a historic double, hours after City Of Troy is scheduled to line up for the G1 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket.

A $500,000 vote of faith in D. Wayne Lukas by BC Stables in Book I of the 2022 September Sale, Just Steel's teak constitution completes one of the most wholesome and cosmopolitan packages on the Triple Crown trail. He's out of an Australian Classic winner by the top-class distaff influence Fastnet Rock (Aus), and has siblings that have cut the mustard at Group level in both hemispheres; while his third dam was an Affirmed half-sister to matriarch Fall Aspen (Pretense). That puts Just Steel on the fringe of one of the modern breed's great dynasties and, with a throwback tenacity apt to his name, he will have more relish than many for the demands of the Derby.

Darling's Double Derby Impact

It feels like only a matter of time before the Japanese give American breeders the ultimate wake-up call in the GI Kentucky Derby itself. Whether or not Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) proves to be the horse to deliver that shock to the system, his rehearsal in the G2 UAE Derby for now actually locates the race's genetic center of gravity in familiar territory.

For, quite remarkably, we now find that two of its strongest candidates share the same granddam. Forever Young's mother Forever Darling (Congrats) is a half-sister to GI Alcibiades S. winner Heavenly Love (Malibu Moon), whose son Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) is favorite for the GI Blue Grass S.

Forever Young | Dubai Racing Club

Their dam is Darling My Darling (Deputy Minister), purchased as a yearling at Keeneland in 1998 by John C. Oxley for $300,000. Her dam, GI Ballerina H. winner Roamin Rachel (Mining), was sold in the same ring that November to Nubuo Tsunoda for $750,000, a price vindicated the following summer when Darling My Darling (her second foal) won on debut at Saratoga and then finished second in consecutive Grade Is. Roamin Rachel was sold carrying a Storm Cat filly, who produced three Group winners in Japan, while her next cover by Sunday Silence produced Japanese Horse of the Year Zenno Rob Roy (Jpn).

This appeared to do curiously little for Darling My Darling's daughter by Congrats, who was pinhooked at $8,000 to become a $65,000 R.N.A. at OBS the following April. Surfacing in the silks of a partnership including trainer Richard Baltas, Forever Darling won a Santa Anita maiden on her second start and then the GII Santa Ynez S. on her sophomore bow. With her family thriving in Japan, Katsumi Yoshida moved to secure her in a private deal and, while she did not really continue her progress, she has since handsomely vindicated him in her second career.

Forever Darling was certainly given purposeful covers, starting with Frankel and Deep Impact (Jpn), and her son from the second crop of Real Steel made a sum equivalent to $700,000 as a yearling. (Yes, second crop! Forever Young is yet another Derby candidate sired by a stallion from the 2019 intake.)

This son of Deep Impact is a more resonant proposition overseas than some Japanese stallions, both as a winner of the G1 Dubai Turf in 2016 and as brother to ground-breaking Breeders' Cup winner Loves Only You. His third dam, moreover, is none other than the great Miesque (Nureyev)-one of the jewels of the program that also, as we'll see in a moment, played a key role in the headline act at Meydan.

Deep Impact | Junji Fukuda

A River Swollen by Niarchos Tributary

What Laurel River did in the desert on Saturday is hard to comprehend, but if any Thoroughbred is capable of doing that, it might be one bred like him.

If anything, he has now surpassed even two Kentucky Derby winners as the ultimate proof of how a steep upgrading of Into Mischief's mares has enabled him to stretch his trademark speed to Classic distances. Having been around as long as he has, Laurel River was admittedly conceived at no more than $75,000, but his dam certainly offered the Spendthrift phenomenon plenty of complementary stamina. In fact, Laurel River's first three dams are GI Belmont S. winners to a man: Empire Maker, Touch Gold and A.P. Indy.

True, his mother couldn't break her maiden in eight starts; nor could her own dam in six. But it was the latter whose recruitment by Juddmonte (for $550,000 at the 2005 Keeneland September Sale) gave one of the world's great breeding programs an invigorating injection of the best genes cultivated by another. Soothing Touch (Touch Gold)-who has additionally given Juddmonte multiple Grade I winner Emollient (by Empire Make, so a sister to Laurel River's dam) and GI Florida Derby runner-up Hofburg (Tapit)-was a granddaughter of Coup De Genie (Mr Prospector), one of several foals to qualify her dam, Coup De Folie (Halo), as a cornerstone of the modern breed. Having just noted that Forever Young's sire traces to Miesque, we really must salute again the Niarchos family's priceless legacy.

Coup De Folie was inbred 3 x 3 to Almahmoud, through her celebrated daughters Natalma and Cosmah. That's a blend for which I will always forage, even with its inevitable attenuation by the generations. In fact, that's one of the reasons I deplore the way breeders nowadays hop from one unproven new stallion to the next, with books as many as seven times greater than was standard in the old days. It means that too many modern pedigrees squash down the generations: how many foals born this spring, for instance, will be by very young sires out of mares by stallions that never achieved lasting viability?

Into Mischief's own pedigree shows what you risk that way. His granddam was sired by Stop The Music when 19 years old. I'm not sure how many commercial breeders today would still send a mare to a stallion with his kind of profile, at that kind of age. And that just makes it harder and harder for modern pedigrees to retain a meaningful trace of precious brands like Stop The Music's sire Hail To Reason (who of course also gave Halo to Cosmah).

Regardless, Into Mischief is surely on his way to beating his own earnings record as well as a sixth consecutive general sires' championship. He has never needed one of these modern megaprizes to dominate his rivals, but Laurel River has got him up to $12.6 million by the start of April, now just a few cents behind Senor Buscador's veteran sire Mineshaft. With his unrelenting quantity matched by the ongoing elevation of his mares, Into Mischief appears a lock to exceed his 2022 haul of $28.56 million.

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4th-SA, $65k, Msw, 3yo, 6 1/2f, 5:03p.m. ET
In a well-met maiden field, PONY EXPRESS (Gun Runner) will be one of several high-priced auction horses to open his career here. Racing for Talla Racing LLC, Three Chimneys Farm and West Point Thoroughbreds, the chestnut was acquired for $500,000 at KEESEP and is a half-brother to MSP Collaborate (Into Mischief), who had been sent to contest the 2021 GI Florida Derby after breaking his maiden by over 12 lengths. In addition to being a half-brother to two other multiple winners, Pony Express hails from the extended female family of champion Heavenly Prize. John Sadler sends this one to post.

To that one's outside, Santarena (Omaha Beach) will jump for Muir Hut Stables, LLC, Saints or Sinners and Dan J. Agnew from the barn of Mark Glatt. A $425,000 in-training purchase at EASMAY, the colt's second dam tallies daughter Catch the Moon (Malibu Moon), whose claim to fame is as the dam of GSW & MGISP Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow); GISW Girvin (Tale of Ekati); GSW Cocked and Loaded (Colonel John); and GSW Pirate's Punch (Shanghai Bobby). Santarena himself is a half-brother to SW & GSP Dubini (Gio Ponti), SW What A Catch (Justin Phillip), and SP Cancel This (Malibu Moon). This is the extended family of GISW Silver Max (Badge of Silver) and GSW & MGISP Shancelot (Shanghai Bobby).

Farthest of them all will be Winterfell (Arrogate), a $400,000 KEESEP purchase trained by Bob Baffert for the ownership group of SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert E. Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan, and Tom J. Ryan. The colt is a half-brother to two other winners and hails from the family of G1 Epsom Oaks victress Casual Look. TJCIS PPs

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Today we caught up with Williams S. Sparks of Monroe, Louisiana. Originally from Arkansas where he grew up attending Oaklawn races with his grandfather, Sparks has assembled a band which reflects his philosophy of breeding to race.

“I'm really deeply committed to breeding a sound racehorse who is going to do what they do best–run,” said Sparks. “Regional breeding and racing are the backbone of this business and I love it. I wish I didn't so much, but I do.”

The Monroe dealership owner boards with Sara Patterson of Cedar Run Farm in Arkansas and with Wayne and Cathy Sweezey in Kentucky, and utilizes Ron Moquett as his conditioner.

BESS (8, Mineshaft–Brenda Leigh, by Forest Wildcat) will be bred to Petrov
This is a hard-knocking mare who made almost $300,000 over 38 starts. I bought Bess as a yearling and raced her until she was claimed away. Ron Moquett and I bought her back. She is in foal to Beau Liam and is in the Arkansas breeding program. Like a lot of other folks, I am impressed with the look of these Petrov foals.

Gunite | Sara Gordon

DANCE FOR DADDY (8, Scat Daddy–Dance to the Sea, by Gone West) will be bred to Gunite
I have bred speed into this mare and her last couple of offspring speak to that, including 3-year-old colt Ceepeegee (Army Mule). This colt broke his maiden in September, and my partner Keith Johnston and I are excited about his prospects. I had actually entered him at last April's OBS and once my wife and I saw him there she asked, “why exactly are you selling this horse?”

Dance For Daddy is currently in foal to Volatile. The next move is to send her to Gunite with hopes for a precocious foal. This mare has shown she can get an early runner. Gunite is a grand-looking horse who proved himself a fighter at the races. I hope he passes that on.

FINE FAMILY (5, Upstart–Great Family, by Harlan's Holiday) will be bred back to Girvin
I was fortunate enough to partner with Bret Jones of Airdrie Stud in racing Fine Family. She is in foal to Girvin for this year and I think the plan is to go back to him. Bret obviously knows what he is doing, so I am just following his lead. Girvin is certainly proving to be a successful sire.

MARTZ (12, Scat Daddy–Opulent, by Meadowlake) will be bred to either Complexity, Nashville or Yaupon
Ron Moquett picked out Martz as a 2-year-old at OBS. We raced her and kept her to breed. She is a big, strong mare who throws lovely foals. I have an affinity for Scat Daddy mares. Martz's best foal so far is MSP Sarah Harper (Vancouver {Aus}) who's mating recommendation was the product of John Prather. Martz has big, nice yearling colt by Astern (Aus), and we are going to breed her to speed. I am certainly liking what I am seeing from both Complexity and Yaupon.

MAXINE'S TAP ROOM (8, Bourbon Courage–Sunday In Malibu, by Malibu Moon) will be bred to The Big Beast
This is a stakes-placed mare who was quick, but who unfortunately had an abbreviated racing career. She's in the Arkansas breeding program and alternates between Arkansas and Kentucky stallions. The Big Beast is going to be a super addition to Arkansas and I'm a fan of the good-looking son of Yes It's True.

Fine Family | Coady Photography

SARAH HARPER (6, Vancouver (Aus)–Martz, by Scat Daddy) will be bred to Nyquist or Street Sense
Our plan with Sarah Harper is to have her compete at Oaklawn this spring and then she will head to the breeding shed. She's just been spectacular and nicks well with a lot of stallions. Wayne [Sweezey] and I are talking it over, but Nyquist or Street Sense are our options in that order.

TIPAZAR (9, Tapizar–Tipsy At Midnight, by Midnight Lute) will be bred to The Big Beast
I raced this mare in partnership with my friend Jim Brown. We are breeding Tipazar in the Arkansas program, and the plan is to continue to alternate every other year with that state entity and then with a Kentucky stallion.

TRIP MOM (16, El Corredor–Fifty Mil Short, by Johannesburg) will be bred to either Highly Motivated or Runhappy
Trip Mom, who I have bred and raced in the Arkansas program, was recommended to me by the late pedigree consultant, Les Brinsfield. Upon entering the business, I had the good fortune to meet Les, and also John Prather through friends George Waggoner and Monty Hinton. They provided me with valuable guidance and endless hours of pedigree discussion.

Interested in sharing your own mating plans? Email garyking@thetdn.com.

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It tells you a lot about our business that the majority of the two dozen stallions operating at this level can only do so because they have yet to send a single runner into the starting gate. A quarter of these we immediately set to one side, as absolute beginners, because those received separate consideration in the opening instalment of this series. Of the remaining 18, another eight belong to those preceding intakes that remain untested by runners.

Some of these have been taking the precautionary clips often necessary to keep young sires in the game, as commercial breeders maintain as safe a distance as possible from the dangers that accompany racetrack exposure.

You can see that template magnified in one of the two sires who are closest to the moment of truth. AUTHENTIC started out in 2021 as the most expensive in his intake, at $75,000. This year he takes his third consecutive cut, down to $50,000 (from $60,000 and previously $70,000). Yet has he become any less likely to sire racehorses, if you send him a mare this spring, relative to when he retired as Horse of the Year? Far from it, if the market reception is any guide: he duly looked after investors by processing 91 yearlings (120 offered) at a median $235,000 (average $286,076), clear at the top of the class.

Authentic | Sarah Andrew

We all know how the system works. But if you genuinely thought Authentic good value at $75,000, well, you'd better get right back to him now that his fee is down by one-third. After all, a true commercial opportunist should be anticipating a rising tide from all the juvenile winners that will surely be emerging from a debut book of 229 mares, just a couple short of making him the busiest stallion in North America that year!

Of course, Spendthrift operates the model so dexterously that Authentic has meanwhile maintained demand, at his more lenient fees, with books of 202 and 198 mares. With 165 live foals to go to war, he surely gives the farm every chance of a third consecutive champion freshman.

MCKINZIE has bucked the trend by retaining his initial fee of $30,000 for a fourth year. He starred at the sales, sending no fewer than 144 into the ring-a staggering percentage of his 174 live foals. That's expressive of the commercial package he had offered in combining knockout looks with 11 triple-digit Beyers, plus Grade Is at two, three and four. He duly sold 110 at a median $90,000, reaching an average of $149,157 after blowing the doors off with a $1.2 million colt at the September Sale. (Both indices beaten only by Authentic in the class.) We've all seen market discoveries sink without trace, over the years, but McKinzie has certainly raised expectations and duly maintained numbers in the meantime, with books of 171 and 168.

The next intake is also represented by two sires, now preparing their first yearlings for auction. One of their peers, Essential Quality, actually remains beyond even this level and duly topped the weanling averages, but CHARLATAN filled second place in selling 19 of 22 at a median $175,000 and average $206,052. That was what he had to do, having similarly starting out behind only Essential Quality in terms of fee, and he's another whose original investors have been spared a depreciation: he remains $50,000 for 2024.

Charlatan emerged from the same crop and barn as Authentic to emulate the GI Arkansas Derby-GI Malibu S. double of Omaha Beach the previous year, and was only narrowly outstayed when stretching his speed again in the G1 Saudi Cup. Unfortunately he then suffered another setback, but nobody forgot his talent and he started with books of 222 and 223. Breeders evidently recalled that he had himself been a $700,000 yearling out of a genuine Grade I mare.

Maxfield | Sarah Andrew

MAXFIELD takes a mild trim, to $35,000 from $40,000, despite selling 11 of a dozen weanlings at a median $110,000/average $165,181. His farm tends to be more conservative with its books, so 165 mares for his first year looked like a full subscription, with another 134 in his second. Maxfield was beaten by just four horses across 11 starts, won a Grade I as a juvenile by five and a half lengths, and above all is out of a Bernardini half-sister to the admirable stallion Sky Mesa (very fine family overall).

Four youngsters who covered their first mares last spring assembled books that appeared, after the mare cap debacle, to be making a point of some kind-albeit one that may be lost on anyone who ends up with only an average specimen to bring to saturated catalogues.

With 262 partners, EPICENTER was behind only his frenzied studmate Golden Pal among American sires, his championship campaign having featured a standout GI Travers (112 Beyer). His sire has gone beyond reach, for most, and I love the sturdy European influences sowing his deeper family-though I can't imagine that those names were front and central for many others!

His neighbor JACK CHRISTOPHER was nearly as hectic with 247 mares. He must have been an easy sell, even his solitary defeat in the GI Haskell counting in his favor as confirming him to be all speed. He'd have had plenty of support had he retired on the spot after a daylight debut success at Saratoga, and beat a good one when returning for what proved his final start a year later. Both he and Epicenter take the customary trim, from $45,000 to $40,000, to help keep the door revolving.

Jack Christopher | Sara Gordon

Jack Christopher represents Munnings, of course, and it's good to see some of Speightstown's later sons contesting the legacy.

Just like Charlatan, OLYMPIAD was a $700,000 yearling. His debut book of 228, making him the busiest stallion outside Ashford, shows that plenty of other farms are prepared to go all out for numbers, given the chance. He matured through the grades with eight triple-figure Beyers, but the clincher is Chic Shirine as third dam. By this stage of the series, you probably won't be surprised that proven stallions populate the Value Podium, but this guy looks a profoundly wholesome prospect in retaining a fee of $35,0000.

Though JACKIE'S WARRIOR had to settle for “just” 182 mares, he could comfort himself that they included Beholder! He's another to take a clip, to $45,000 from $50,000, but still finds himself standing for more than his own sire. Even so, he will remain in demand as a Grade I winner at Saratoga three years running, an unprecedented achievement gilded by a 28-year-old stakes record in the Hopeful.

Right, now let's get onto some sires that have actually demonstrated some competence to replicate the genetic prowess we should be looking for at this kind of fee.

Of these, the one who has barely started is OMAHA BEACH. He's just completed his freshman season with fourth place in a table dominated by Spendthrift sires, on the face of it hardly measuring up to his status as the most expensive of the quartet. But I'm not alone in retaining high hopes, judged from the fact that his fee has moved back up to $40,000 for 2024, having been allowed to slide from an opening $45,000 to $30,000.

Because while he has only had a couple of stakes winners, he has a class-high 11 black-type performers from 64 starters–a much smaller footprint than his three studmates (Vino Rosso, late bloomer though he was, has fielded 92!)–and these include four at graded stakes level. Omaha Beach presumably received rather more Classic/two-turn mares than his peers, and it's reasonable to expect consolidation from here. It's a rare horse nowadays that can win Grade Is at both six and nine furlongs, and his family overflows with quality.

Obviously, he has volume behind him, standing where he does, but that was partly a function of what seemed pretty lenient pricing throughout. His second crop of yearlings held up very well, at a median $105,000/average $156,508 for 95 sold (116 offered). That keeps Omaha Beach miles clear of his intake, some of whom have been quickly embarrassed by their opening fees. Those who kept the faith in the meantime (185 mares in his fourth book last spring) are entitled remain optimistic, the only caveat being the overall underperformance of this particular class of freshmen, judged by graded stakes winners. It's now over to Omaha Beach to convert his promise into a headliner or two.

City of Light | Lane's End

A similar remark might have been made, this time last year, about CITY OF LIGHT–and, heading into the Breeders' Cup, he had still not justified an against-the-tide hike from $40,000 to $60,000 in 2022. That was the reward for a sensational debut (average $337,698/median $260,000) at the yearling sales. With his book down to 85 last spring, from 132, he was slashed to $35,000 for 2024. But then along came Fierceness, and suddenly everything is looking much more cheerful.

City Of Light may have a few later developers, but 18 black-type performers from no more than 127 to have made the starting gate is a very fair ratio. His fee cut was among several such gestures by his farm after polarisation at the sales (where his third crop were down to a median $75,000/average $126,269 for 63 sold of 75) made it feel as though fees generally remain too high.

In his (very competitive) intake, one who has only elevated his reputation is GIRVIN, who started in Florida at $7,500 and is up to $30,000 (from $20,000) after consolidating the breakout that earned him a ticket to Kentucky. From limited materials, he is so far operating at 6 percent stakes winners (including Grade I scorer Faiza) to named foals, narrowly bettered only by Good Magic and Army Mule in his class.

Girvin's tragic sibling Midnight Bourbon showed what their unraced dam Catch the Moon must be contributing to the equation, and this year Catch the Moon's sister produced Brightwork to lend further Grade I luster to the page. Everyone should duly be fully reconciled by now to Girvin's unfashionable (but superbly-bred) sire. Those who bred to Girvin in his second year in Ocala, at $6,000, certainly can't complain about a yearling average of $92,411 (stretched by a $475,000 colt, but a $41,000 median itself very respectable) for 17 sold from 21 offered. Girvin is firmly on his way, through the roof by the restrained standards of his farm with 181 mares (up from 86) last spring, and only an even more upwardly mobile studmate has kept him off the Value Podium.

Violence | Sarah Andrew

Before we get to that, we have three horses that have by now had ample opportunity to show where they fit in the marketplace: Liam's Map, Maclean's Music and VIOLENCE.

Not that the latter has remotely settled, in terms of pricing! Initially elevated to $60,000 for 2024, he has meanwhile slipped back into this bracket at $40,000. The reasons have been cogently explained, and leave him looking big value as the sire of two new stallions in Kentucky this year, not to mention one with an obvious shot at the freshman title in Volatile. Violence is actually cheaper than his champion son Forte, a rookie whose supporters would surely be delighted if he can produce as many fast horses by the time he reaches the equivalent point of his career. Violence's book will be managed appropriately to his circumstances, but purely in terms of value he looks of imperative interest to eligible mares. For this is a proven achiever at this level–both on the track and in the ring, where he moved his yearling yield up to a median of $80,000 (from $60,000) and average $121,642 (from $97,614). That's impressive for a stallion with seven crops in play. Violence was No. 13 on the general sires' list and the caveats sound very manageable.

His studmate MACLEAN'S MUSIC also looks a fair price at $40,000, after a couple of years at $50,000, considering that he has four sons at stud in the Bluegrass. We've already noted one of them, Jackie's Warrior, getting plenty of trade at a higher fee, while Drain The Clock served no fewer than 199 mares in his debut season. Maclean's Music himself had to settle for 144 last spring, but covered 421 over the previous two seasons after dwindling to 57 in 2020, so the good old “pipeline” is well and truly loaded. In fact, no fewer than 183 live foals in 2022 give him the single biggest battalion of juveniles for the forthcoming campaign. So this looks a pretty shrewd time to stay aboard with a horse who processed as many as 104 of 131 yearlings at an average $118,739 ($70,000 median sound enough, against a $25,000 conception fee).

LIAM'S MAP also maintained his sales performance, selling 80 of 102 offered at a $100,000 median/$124,024 average–conceived at $30,000–albeit down somewhat on the previous crop, who had knocked it out of the park ($130,000/$166,724). Standing at $40,000 for a third year running, he once again proved a reliable source of stakes action this year, chiefly with maturing stock. His next task is to emulate the Hill 'n' Dale pair, who have been in the game rather longer, as a sire of sires.

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze: HARD SPUN
Danzig–Turkish Tryst (Turkoman)
Darley $35,000

So I guess he's not going to change the world, at this stage–but I really don't see much better value to prove your mare, or just to get yourself a racehorse. I know that's not everyone's priority, but the fact is that the last big son of Danzig has now turned 20 and that leaves us diminishing access to the great patriarch.

Hard Spun | Darley

Hard Spun missed a return to the top 10 sires only by cents, relatively speaking, and it was a measure of what he can do for a mare that a horse with as plain a page as Two Phil's could break into the elite of his crop, and now become Hard Spun's fourth son at stud in Kentucky.

It's incredible that a horse with a dozen domestic Grade I winners has never gone higher than $45,000 in the decade since he made the sojourn in Japan that (in hindsight) cost him vital momentum. In that time, he has finished as high as fourth in the general sires' list, but he doesn't get precocious horses and has settled at a median $67,500 (strong six-figure average) with his last couple of yearling crops.

Hard Spun nonetheless produced another 26 black-type performers in 2023, and cumulatively stands at No. 7 among active sires with several ratios (for instance, graded stakes winners/performers at 2.7/5.7 percent of named foals) uncannily in step with his old buddy Street Sense, who maintains a fee of $60,000.

It's gratifying to see that he remains fully subscribed, 151 mares last year showing that there are still plenty of breeders out there who recognise the importance not just of getting a winner under their mare, but a high-class winner. Hard Spun's stock goes on all surfaces, at all distances, and with those storied Darby Dan bloodlines behind him, it's no surprise that he should meanwhile be emerging as a broodmare influence. His daughters have lately produced a top-class miler in Europe in Alcohol Free (Ire) (No Nay Never), and no less an animal than Good Magic.

Somehow the world has spun against this horse, but it's very hard to see why.

Silver: AMERICAN PHAROAH
Pioneerof The Nile–Littleprincessemma (Yankee Gentleman)
Ashford Stud $50,000

Well, you can't win them all–even if you're Coolmore. Who could have said, for certain, which of their two Triple Crown winners would best replicate the talent that had confirmed the series to remain within the competence of a modern Thoroughbred? It was actually this one, having ended a generation of doubt, that started at the higher fee: he opened at $200,000 in 2016, and Justify at $150,000 three years later. The latter had been trimmed to $100,000 by the time he launched his first runners, in 2022; and American Pharoah had taken a proportionately deeper cut at the equivalent stage, to $110,000 for 2019. Their paths since, however, have forked radically. Justify is now out of sight, listed as private; and Pharoah enters 2024 suffering the indignity of yet another cut, this time down to $50,000 from $60,000.

American Pharoah | Sarah Andrew

Now there's no way that you can say he's any kind of dud, en route to oblivion. He finished 2023 at No. 6 in the general sires' list, with a seventh Grade I winner supplemented by no fewer than six others placed at the elite level–and that's taking no account of his success in Australia, including a G1 Victoria Derby winner. Yes, like most stallions on this farm, the volume behind him proves a double-edged sword when it comes to his ratios.

His 11 stakes winners arrived at 3.7 percent, pretty unexciting given the quality he must have been working with. But he continues to get his superior/graded action at a superior rate to ever-fashionable studmate Munnings, for instance, who commands a 50 percent higher fee.

The exotic seeding of American Pharoah's family was always liable to make the owners of top-class mares a little nervous, but his dam has proved a consistent producer so something has come together in dynamic fashion. Further action was plainly required after he assembled no more than 129 mares with last year's reduction, but if able to maintain his current sales performance–yearling median $150,000 with both his last two crops, averaging $210,164 in 2023–then you'll be looking at a very fair yield at his current price.

Both American Pharoah and Justify have proved effective sires on turf. If this fee proves a last roll of the dice, then I might impudently suggest once again that American Pharoah could be worth a spin in Co. Tipperary. But he's now within reach of a different type of American breeder, and that may well grant him a new lease of life.

Gold: UPSTART
Flatter–Party Silks (Touch Gold)
Airdrie Stud $30,000

So what is it, really, that we can hope to find at this level? I mean, we're obviously excluding “fantasy” breeding to untested stallions. But is there perhaps a horse out there hinting that he's pressing against the ceiling, and might soon be inaccessible? The other pair on the podium, admirable as they are, hardly fit that category. To me, however, Upstart is the dude in this tier who has the chance of elevating himself to a higher level yet.

Upstart | EquiSport

Maybe you were disappointed that he didn't follow through the 2022 deeds of Zandon and Kathleen O (among 63 named foals conceived at $10,000) with his next crop of sophomores? Well, that's because his third crop comprised just 27 live foals. Even so they included Prerequisite, a $47,000-to-$350,000 pinhook who won the GII Wonder Again S. on her first start outside maiden company, and then missed a Grade I by three parts of a length next time. Meanwhile, as we knew to expect from his own template (multiple Grade I-placed in three consecutive seasons), his mature stock kept him in the game with wins in races as resonant as the GII Clark and GII Woodward S.

He has punched conspicuously above weight at the sales, averaging $90,900 in 2022, but traded at just $39,434 from a modest book last year. But he's now ready to open a new cycle. His incoming yearlings emerge from a book of 151, saturation point for a farm that resists the opportunity of exposing their clients by inundating catalogues. Hiked to $30,000 last spring, he entertained another 153. When you consider what he has been doing with mediocre materials, this is a stallion on the point of a big move.

Despite a dual Grade I runner-up among his first juveniles, Upstart somehow remained bumping along at $10,000. Even so, his 13 stakes winners at 5.2 percent of named foals and 26 black-type performers at 10.4 percent compares with 5/12.2 percent for the lavishly supported Nyquist (standing at $85,000) in his own class; 4/9 percent for Practical Joke ($45,000) and 5.2/8.5 percent for Arrogate in the following intake; 5.9/9.4 percent for Justify and 4/11.1 percent for Bolt d'Oro ($60,000) in the one after that.

This is a horse that gets stock onto the track, and into the winner's circle: 53 percent winners to lifetime starters, compared with 46 percent for the soaraway hero of his intake, Not This Time; 41 percent for Nyquist; 43 percent even for the stellar Gun Runner, the same for Practical Joke, just 39 percent for Arrogate.

Upstart was cleverly named and, it now seems, aptly too. There are some curiosities sowing his family, but it's demonstrably all working. Perhaps the farm that gave us the sires of Uncle Mo and Into Mischief has again tapped into an unexpected seam of gold. With an incoming spike in quality and quantity, catch him while you can.

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“We couldn't be looking more forward to the 2024 season as we continue to build momentum in our stallion barn,” said Airdrie's Bret Jones. “We believe we have two very special stallions in Girvin and Upstart headlining our roster this year. Both have built their success from the ground up, and their ability to so dramatically improve their mares has earned the faith of the best breeders in the industry. They are both poised to continue to climb the ladder as leading young stallions.”

Girvin has been given a $5,000 bump for 2024, while Upstart's fee remains the same as his 2023 fee.

Cairo Prince will stand for $15,000, the same as his 2023 fee.

“Cairo Prince has once again been the leading sire of his stallion crop and a Top 25 General and Juvenile Sire throughout the year,” said Jones. “He has long cemented his position as a hugely popular value stallion for both the sales ring and the racetrack.”

Collected, who currently has two crops on the track, will remain at $10,000.

“With his first crop just three-year-olds, Collected has already sired three individual Grade II stakes winners and six stakes winners in all,” Jones continued. “That is an incredibly strong resume for a young stallion in his price range and we believe his arrow will continue to point up in the year ahead. And we also believe Complexity ($12,500) has every chance to be next season's leading freshman sire. He was an immensely talented runner and his first-crop yearlings generated the type of buzz at the sales that foreshadows major success on the racetrack.”

“When combined with our new introductions of the last two years in Beau Liam, Happy Saver and Highly Motivated and the future retirement of Kentucky Derby winner Mage at the end of his racing career, these are very exciting times for our Airdrie Stud team. As always, we will be supporting our stallions with the full force of our broodmare band and look forward to working with our incredibly loyal breeders to whom we owe our success.”

The complete roster, with fees, is:

Girvin – $30,000

Upstart – $30,000

Cairo Prince – $15,000

Complexity – $12,500

Collected – $10,000

Happy Saver – $10,000

Highly Motivated – $7,500

Beau Liam – $6,000

Divisidero – $5,000

Preservationist – $5,000

Summer Front – $5,000

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#5 Closethegame Sugar closes strong to take the 4th Race @PID_Casino!

Jockey: @iradortiz
Trainer: Adam Rice
Owner: Adam Rice and Sugar Diaz LLC@PA_HBPA

#TwinSpiresReplay pic.twitter.com/hdqG7OCd7u

— TwinSpires Racing (@TwinSpires) September 18, 2023

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2nd-SAR, $136k, Msw, 2yo, f, 6f, 1:44 p.m.
BENTO (Tapit) was hammered down to D J Stable for $600,000 at last fall's Fasig-Tipton October Sale, the second-dearest price of that four-day auction. The April-foaled gray is out of dual graded winner Carolyn's Cat (Forestry), the dam of Bento's GIII Bayakoa S.-winning full-sister and 'TDN Rising Star' Mufajaah. The MGSP third dam Cassowary (Cormorant) produced 1994 GII Pennsylvania Derby winner Meadow Flight (Meadowlake). Ways and Means (Practical Joke) is by a sire who was campaigned by Klaravich and William H. Lawrence to win the 2017 GI H. Allen Jerkens S. here and is a full-brother to Highly Motivated, who just missed on debut here three summers ago and earned graded-stakes glory in last year's GIII Monmouth Cup. He is perhaps best remembered for his tooth-and-nails battle with champion Essential Quality (Tapit) in the 2021 GII Toyota Blue Grass S. The March foal is also a half-sister to Surge Capacity (Flintshire {GB}), winner of last month's GIII Lake George S. Shore War (Omaha Beach), $350,000 OBSAPR breezer, is out of a half-sister to SW Marion Ravenwood (A.P. Indy), the dam of champion and recent GII Shuvee S. winner Nest (Curlin) and GISW Idol (Curlin). TJCIS PPs

4th-GP, $55k, 2yo, f, (S), 5 1/2f, 2:16 p.m. ET
LAILA BELLA GIRL (Girvin) fetched $100,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton July Sale, but blossomed in the months leading up to this spring's OBS March Sale and was knocked down to Champion Equine for $500,000 after working a furlong in :10 flat over the synthetic surface. That price was the most expensive of 23 (30 ring) of her sire's second-crop runners to sell this season. Airdrie-bred top and bottom, the Feb. 8 foal is out of a mare by former Airdrie inmate Mark Valeski who is a half-sister to MSW & GSP Fuerteventura (Summer Front), SW Midnight Soiree (Include) and SW Ciguaraya (Latent Heat). TJCIS PPs

6th-SAR, $136k, Msw, 2yo, f, 6f, 4:00 p.m.
Godolphin sends out its homebred HOLIDAY ROAD (Into Mischief), whose dam Seventh Street (Street Cry {Ire}) took out the GI Go for Wand H. in these environs in 2009 and has since gone on to produce the Bill Mott-trained 2019 GII Demoiselle S. victress Lake Avenue (Tapit) and GISP 'TDN Rising Star' Marking (Bernardini). Helcia (Bernardini) was hammered down for a healthy $230,000 at KEESEP last fall, but improved into a $600,000 OBS March juvenile after breezing an eighth of a mile in a slick :10 (see Summer Breezes). Honors for the best-named horse of the day go to Before You Go Go (Mitole), a $67,000 KEENOV weanling turned $310,000 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic breezer (see Summer Breezes). Her dam Wake Me Up (Act of War) is a half-sister to champion Hansen (Tapit). TJCIS PPs

1st-DMR, $82k, Msw, 2yo, f, 5fT, 5:00 p.m. ET
ELLIE MOORE (IRE) (Starspangledbanner {Aus}) was bet down to 5-1 for her five-furlong debut in heavy Curragh turf Apr. 16 and got home well to share second spot while finishing a neck behind Porta Fortuna (Ire) (Caravaggio), subsequent winner of the G3 EBF Fillies' Sprint at Naas in May and the G3 Albany S. at Royal Ascot June 23. By a stallion whose progeny have succeeded all over the world, the bay is out of a half-sister to Same World (GB) (ex Tucuman {GB}) (Hawk Wing), a stakes winner in France and Hong Kong and runner-up in the 2012 Hong Kong Derby; and English Group 3 winner San Sicharia (Ire) (Daggers Drawn). TJCIS PPs

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In that context, it was a remarkable weekend. Violence accounted for the dashing winners of two Derby rehearsals; while Practical Joke, who added one for himself, followed through with two other stakes winners, one of which banked 50 starting points for the GI Kentucky Oaks. On that front, however, Girvin was the man of the hour, making a double play with trial winners on opposite coasts. Less feted, meanwhile, but perhaps most significant in the longer term, was another stellar weekend for Blame as an emerging broodmare sire.
Among all these, the obvious imperative is to consider the genetic wiring that must sustain Forte (Violence) as he stretches out in distance. Before doing so, however, it's worth acknowledging that each of these stallions has a wider momentum than mere coincidence.

Girvin had already announced himself so persuasively, in launching talented juveniles like Damon's Mound last year, that he earned an immediate transfer from Florida to Kentucky. Faiza made a key contribution to that breakout, as a spectacular pinhook ($90,000 yearling/$725,000 juvenile) who then won a Grade I on her second start, and she continued her flawless progress in the GIII Santa Ysabel S. on Sunday. Her success was rather more anticipated than that of Dorth Vader the previous day, but a filly homebred at $7,500 has now won four of six starts since stumbling on debut: a maiden, two stakes and now the GII Davona Dale S. Girvin's precocious stock, then, is consolidating in most encouraging fashion–especially given that he has so far been working with material commensurate with his opening fee. Dorth Vader, for instance, is out of a Yonaguska mare who won under a $5,000 tag in Alberta. It's going to be fun to see what Girvin can do with his upgrade at Airdrie.

Practical Joke belongs to the previous intake, meaning that he has had to deal throughout with a fairly epoch-making inconvenience in Gun Runner. As a dual Grade I-winning juvenile by into Into Mischief, he secured significant numerical opportunity at Ashford and has already had a couple of hundred individual starters. But he's taking the chance he was given, reliably slipstreaming Gun Runner in their class and already indebted to this second crop for a first Grade I success in Chocolate Gelato's Frizette last fall.

The flamboyant talent of Practical Move is offering to take his sire to another level, albeit we'll have to see quite how far he can stretch his speed. That kind of question has obviously been answered quite brilliantly by Into Mischief himself, since the elevation of his mares, and Practical Joke is making a promising early “Move” in the intensifying competition among his sons. Little Vic–from Practical Joke's debut crop–is certainly trading unapologetically in speed, and continued his fertile winter campaign with a career best in the GIII Tom Fool H. But Shidabhuti will be another looking to extend, having pried open an Oaks gate in maintaining her unbeaten start in the Busher S.

Blame is obviously a proven operator by this stage, and we've long admired his black-type output at ratios that stack up well against several more expensive covers. Indeed, this spring he has Derby and Oaks contenders himself in Litigate and Wet Paint. As a broodmare sire, however, he has barely started–and is rapidly opening up exciting horizons.

With his beautifully shaped pedigree, lining up his fourth dam Thong against his sire Arch's third dam Courtly Dee (both by sons of Nasrullah, in Nantallah and Never Bend), I've always said Blame looked a great option for someone who wouldn't mind retaining a filly. And his daughters arguably gave us both the leading juveniles of 2022, in Forte himself and Loggins (Ghostzapper); while two others produced sophomore stakes winners to sandwich the champion's comeback win last Saturday. Danse Macabre (Army Mule) won the GIII Herecomesthebride S. on the same card, while Botanical (Medaglia d'Oro) collected 20 Oaks points in the Cincinnati Trophy at Turfway. Note this well: Forte, Loggins, Danse Macabre and Botanical are all the very first foals to represent their dams on the track.

Botanical is bred on a cross akin to the one that gave us Forte, who is by a son of her sire. But while Medaglia d'Oro has long been a byword for versatility, it's conceivable that Violence may need Forte to summon the two-turn influences channelled through his dam to see out the punishing test awaiting on the first Saturday in May.
In winning the GII Fountain of Youth S., Forte was redressing his sire's narrow defeat (by the subsequent Derby winner) in the same race 10 years previously.

Medaglia d'Oro | Darley

True to the Medaglia d'Oro legacy, Violence did prove adaptable even in the span of a career that came to a premature end that day, having won the GI Hollywood Futurity on synthetics after making his name on dirt in New York. He made a flying start at Hill 'n' Dale, missing the 2017 freshman's laurels by cents (to Overanalyze!) and rewarded with 214 mares at a fee hiked from $15,000 to $25,000. With his debut crop thriving as sophomores, he proved all the rage at the yearling sales in 2018 and was raised further to $40,000. But he then mustered just two stakes winners in 2019, sending his yearling average plummeting from over $130,000 to barely $45,000. With his fee retreating to $25,000, he then turned things round with three Grade I winners in 2020, from three different crops. He was back in the game, albeit that hump in the road will tell in a somewhat diminished juvenile footprint this year (graduating from his 2020 book, which slipped to 86 mares).

Overall, after one or two wild swings early in his career, it feels safe to say that Violence has completed a process of consolidation with the emergence of Forte. Always a glossy physical, he's now up to $50,000 and already has Volatile at stud to heighten the sense that the ageing Medaglia d'Oro has belatedly organised his legacy. For quite a while, the dynasty had seemed insecure, with no heir quite matching the status of his daughters Rachel Alexandra and Songbird, or his gelded son Golden Sixty. But now he has Violence competing with a champion freshman in Bolt d'Oro, with Higher Power starting out too. Certainly anyone who consecutively replays the Fountain of Youth and then the GIII Gotham S. will observe a common swagger to Forte and Raise Cain. But that kind of natural speed is consistent with the races won by their sire's most accomplished stock to date: GI Woody Stephens S., GI Alfred G. Vanderbilt S., GI Bing Crosby S.

In vividly diversifying the legacy of turf monster El Prado (Ire), Medaglia d'Oro can also include sprint speed among his variegated resume: think Astern (Aus), Vancouver (Aus), Warrior's Reward. Quite apart from his sire-line, however, the seeding of Violence's own family also has a strong flavor of chlorophyll: his first two dams are by transatlantic influences in Gone West and Storm Cat, and the next two are by venerable European Classic influences in Blushing Groom (Fr) and Nijinsky. How curious, if these names should end up helping to create a legacy on dirt for Medaglia d'Oro.

With the help of their classic qualities, this well-known family has achieved that elusive balance between speed and stamina. Violence's third dam is Hall of Famer Sky Beauty, whose own dam was Dayjur's Grade I-winning half-sister Maplejinsky, their mother in turn being champion sprinter Gold Beauty. Bearing in mind that you'll also find Maplejinsky as third dam of Point Of Entry (Dynaformer), this maternal background should certainly help Violence stretch the speed he has imparted to his best stock; and he does have a Grade I winner over 10 furlongs in Argentina. Nonetheless it is a comfort for those in Forte's camp for the Derby to know that he can also draw on the resources of his dam Queen Caroline.

Blame | Claiborne Farm

Blame himself obviously offers her a bedrock. Besides extending the doughty Arch-Roberto brand, he also introduces more Nijinsky as sire of his grandam–whose celebrated mother, Special was of course by another sturdy influence in Forli (Arg). Queen Caroline is out of a Forestry mare, but the next dam is by Seattle Slew and soon tapers through three generations of Phipps-Wheatley royalty to a sister of Busher (and then to the Colonel Bradley matriarch Baby League and her legendary dam La Troienne {Fr}). Queen Caroline herself showed plenty of talent, at around a mile on turf, winning four black-type races. A couple of those were restricted to Virginia-breds, but she only missed a graded stakes podium by a neck. (Remarkably, she was the very first purchase made by Amy Moore–as a $170,000 Keeneland September yearling–to found South Gate Farm.)
Queen Caroline's dam was a sharp sort, promptly adding a listed sprint to her maiden win at two, but more importantly she was out of a half-sister to the increasingly important Storm Cat mare Contrive: not only dam of champion juvenile filly Folklore (Tiznow) (herself responsible for the mother of Japanese star Contrail (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) but also second dam of Essential Quality (Tapit).

This all feels like a pretty strong foil to the speed hitherto trademarked by Violence. A similar exercise will be necessary, incidentally, with Raise Cain. He was bred by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds from a Lemon Drop Kid mare who had won a sprint maiden in a light career, more significantly a half-sister to GI Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic winner Unrivaled Belle (Unbridled's Song). The latter's daughter Unique Bella also had elite talent but remember that she operated very effectively round a single turn, despite being by Tapit.

So we'll have to see how the profile of Violence evolves as these sons seek to adapt their flair to the demands of the Triple Crown trail. Raise Cain certainly exhibited a full armory on Saturday: through the race he exuded contempt for the idea that the traffic around him might be running fast, and then devoured open ground like a horse eager for more. Admittedly his earlier work now seems to require some imaginative reinterpretation, whereas Forte is obviously a proven star already.

As has been well documented by now, as a $110,000 yearling Forte lurked an awfully long way down the list of 2021 purchases by Repole Stable and St Elias. (Certainly it was only a marginal reward for his $80,000 pinhookers, though Reiley McDonald could comfort himself with a trifecta of Eaton graduates in the GI Hopeful S.) Regardless, Violence has now put two sets of connections exactly where thousands of others had dreamed of being when the class of 2020 slithered into the straw. But if it turns out that none of them can outstay Forte, we know who else can share the Blame.

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A $725,000 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic grad, Faiza (Girvin) already had lofty expectations by the time she entered the starting gate for the first time Nov. 12. A popular choice at the betting windows, she put on a 3 1/2-length winning performance that day worthy of a 'TDN Rising Star' tag and immediately backed that form up with a narrow win next time out over familiar foe Pride of the Nile (Pioneerof the Nile) in the GI Starlet S. at Los Alamitos Dec. 10.

In a field that included the top three out of that Starlet S., as well as fellow 'Rising Star' Justique (Justify), Faiza drew the inside gate but was out-sprinted into the first turn by a pair of rivals to her outside in Sweet Trouble (Into Mischief) and Broadway Girls (Army Mule). Taken back third off that duo as the field strung out down the backstretch, Faiza stayed in contention before shifting to the outside to steadily gain until she was on even terms with Broadway Girls. Still making progress as the top trio came around the far turn, she came within a neck of Sweet Trouble at the head of the lane despite drifting out a bit and dug in gamely down the stretch to keep a closing Pride of the Nile at bay in a repeat of the Starlet exacta.

“I'd like to thank Bob Baffert and the owner for the opportunity and support,” said winning jockey Ramon Vazquez, who was aboard Faiza for the first time today with regular rider Flavien Prat away to ride today at Oaklawn Park. “I wanted to get out in the clear and put my filly in a good position.  She's a nice filly, when I asked her, she responded really well.  She's amazing.”

Pedigree Notes:

By top-five freshman sire Girvin–also the sire of fellow 'Rising Star' Damon's Mound–Faiza was her sire's first Grade I winner. Her second dam, MGSW & GISP Pomeroys Pistol (Pomeroy), is also responsible for MGSW and Spendthrift stallion Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile). Sweet Pistol saw her 2-year-old by Cairo Prince realize $160,000 at last year's Keeneland September Sale and she has a yearling filly by Complexity still to race as well.

Saturday, Santa Anita
LAS VIRGENES S.-GIII, $200,500, Santa Anita, 1-28, 3yo, f, 1m,
1:38.46, ft.
1–FAIZA, 124, f, 3, by Girvin
          1st Dam: Sweet Pistol, by Smart Strike
          2nd Dam: Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy
          3rd Dam: Prettyatthetable, by Point Given
'TDN Rising Star'. ($90,000 Ylg '21 FTKJUL; $725,000 2yo '22 EASMAY).
O-Michael Lund Petersen; B-Brereton C. Jones (KY); T-Bob
Baffert; J-Ramon A. Vazquez. $120,000. Lifetime Record:
GISW, 3-3-0-0, $342,000. Werk Nick Rating: B+. Click for the
eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree or free Equineline.com
catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Pride of the Nile, 122, f, 3, Pioneerof the Nile–Inny Minnie,
by Hard Spun. ($140,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-West Coast
Stables, LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY);
T-Doug F. O'Neill. $40,000.
3–Justique, 120, f, 3, Justify–Grazie Mille, by Bernardini.
($725,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-C R K Stable LLC; B-John D.
Gunther & Eurowest Bloodstock (KY); T-John A. Shirreffs.
$24,000. 'TDN Rising Star'.
Margins: HF, 2HF, HF. Odds: 1.00, 3.60, 2.40.
Also Ran: Sweet Trouble, Uncontrollable, Broadway Girls.
Click for the Equibase.com chart or the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO,
sponsored by TVG.
 

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