Liz Crow: “I really liked the Improbables at the OBS March breeze show. It's very sad that he passed away. I thought he had, overall, the most impressive breeze show. That doesn't always indicate who's going to be the leading freshman sire, but I have found in the past that it's a good model that tells you the horse is going in the right direction and that they have some 2-year-old speed. Overall, I was very impressed with his horses. Volatile is my sleeper pick. He had, overall, a good breeze show as well. And he bred a lot of mares, something around 180. I landed on quite a few of them that had nice works and he was speedy himself and, being by Violence, comes from a good line of 2 year olds. With the number of mares he had and with the solid breeze show he had I rank him high on the list.”

Phil Hager: “In terms of the quality that I've seen so far it's a toss-up between Authentic and McKinzie. A lot of the Authentics I have seen look really nice. Some look like they could be early, but a lot of them look like horses that can go on and go two turns. The McKinzies look like they might develop a little later in the year, but they seem to have a lot of quality. Both were well supported and will go to a lot of good trainers. My sleeper is Caracaro. That horse could run. I used to work at Crestwood, so I knew the horse's story. He had quite a few that worked really well at the March sale. I don't know if that was a surprise, but they were consistent.”

Mike McMahon: “McKinzie is my pick. I've owned three or four already. Not only were they in demand at the sales but they were all good looking horses. I haven't had a bad one yet. The one we bought to go racing with, if all is right, he will be pretty exceptional. I feel like I have a good group of McKinzies and have a good feel for them. His 2 year olds breezed just as well as they were supposed to.  My sleeper is Vekoma. It's a tough choice because I like several stallions that stand for $10,000 or less and are real bargains. Vekoma has the speed to be a sire, the sire line and the pedigree. I've loved the ones we have been around.”

Jon Green: “I was most impressed with the Improbables. His passing is unfortunate. He had a couple of horses who were on our short list for the 2-year-old sale and last year we saw 10 to 12 of his yearlings that we liked at the yearling sales. I think he will be an outstanding freshman sire. The sleeper is Tom's d'Etat. We bought two of his yearlings and I got outbid on one at the March sale. He won't be a juvenile stallion that throws precocious 2 year olds. Just like him, as they get older. I think you'll see them hitting the winner's circle in graded stakes.They will get better with age.”

Connor Foley: Based on what I saw at the OBS sale, my pick for leading freshman sire would be Tiz the Law.  They breezed well enough as a group and I thought they all had a lot of race-horse characteristics to them. Horses can breeze fast, but you still have to ask yourself the question, are they going to go on to be good race horses? They had that look to me. For my sleeper pick, I was impressed by the horses by Thousand Words.”

Zoe Cadman: “Volatile is my pick for leading freshman sire. Like last year's freshman sire Mitole, Volatile was also brilliantly fast and trained by one of the masters of the game in Steve Asmussen. How he ever paid $20 to win on debut is just beyond me. He was brilliantly fast and being out of an Unbridled's Song mare I see no reason why his babies won't go two turns . They made a great showing at the recently concluded OBS 2-year-old sales showing not only class, which is so important, but also some stretch and athleticism. Marette Farrell, who I work closely with at the sales, scooped one up out of the Lothenbach dispersal who we absolutely love. My under-the-radar pick was going to be Vekoma. But his 2-year-olds are no longer a secret. The were incredibly well received at both the yearling sales and at OBS March. The Farrell team bid on and secured several. So, I'm going with Complexity who stands for $12,500 at Airdrie stud, as my sleeper. He has it all. He was a Grade I winner at two and also the Kelso winner at four. His 2 year olds looked great skipping over the OBS surface and I am looking forward to seeing them hit the racetrack soon.”

Mark Casse: “I have to go with War of Will, who I trained. I have something like 20 of his offspring and they're training very well.  They're going to be very versatile. He was a versatile horse who could run on dirt or grass. My sleeper is Win Win Win. The horses by him have been very impressive on the track.”

David Ingordo: “I have to go with Game Winner. He was 2-year-old champion and he got a good book of mares. They look the part. We got a bunch of them that we bought to race that act precocious, but also high class, not cheap. He's my No. 1 pick. My sleeper is Honor A.P. I don't think they'll win going 4 ½ furlongs by any means, but you have the A.P. Indy line that is not Tapit. He was precocious enough, but I think he'll be a source of Classic type blood. I can see him getting a horse in the Breeders' Cup Classic or, earlier on, him getting a 2-year old in races like the American Pharoah and the Breeders' Futurity.”

Terry Finley: We have a couple of Game Winners we like and I know people liked him in Ocala. The McKinzies look like they have a lot of quality to them. I was very impressed with him at the yearling sales and at Ocala, where they sold well. He's got a good shot to come up with a big one and a horse who is going to slant those stats. I like them both but I'll go with Game Winner as my top pick and McKinzie as my sleeper.

The post Who Will Be This Year’s Leading Freshman Sire? We’ve Asked the Experts appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The 10-3 second choice had hit the board for Ollie Sangster in Royal Ascot's Listed Windsor Castle S., in his penultimate start, and broke sharply from the far-side stall to seize an immediate lead in this five-furlong dash. Unflustered on the front end until shaken up soon after passing the quarter-mile marker, he held a decisive advantage entering the final furlong and was ridden out up the hill to comfortably hold Rosario (GB) (Harry Angel {Ire}) by 1 1/2 lengths for a career high.

“I wasn't that confident beforehand, but he is a very tough horse,” commented trainer Kevin Philippart de Foy after securing a career high of his own. “He took the lead and grabbed the race from the get go. When I saw three horses in line halfway through the race I was a bit worried, but he breathes very well and relaxes. When William [Buick] asked him to quicken up he put it to bed very nicely. I think he is a five-furlong horse, but we will probably have to try the six [furlongs] later down the line. I feel he has got bags of speed, and he jumped so well today he took a length out of them from the stalls. He was sold to go to Hong Kong, but for the time being he is staying here. I would love to keep him, but we will have to speak to the owner. We've had a couple of Listed winners, but I wanted a Group winner this year and I was very keen to get a 2-year-old Group winner, so it is job done. The next step is a Group 2 or Group 1. The [Nov. 3 GI] Breeders' Cup [Juvenile Turf Sprint] is a possibility and we will have to discuss it, but it is not out of the question.”

Pedigree Notes

Inquisitively, the seventh of eight foals, is one of three scorers produced by a winning half-sister to G2 Temple S. victrix Priceless (GB) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}) and G2 Mill Reef S. runner-up Doctor Brown (GB) (Dr Fong). He shares his second dam Molly Brown (GB) (Rudimentary) with G3 Chipchase S. victor Aeolus (GB) (Araafa (Ire) and Listed Golden Rose S. third Hezmah (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}). Molly Brown, in turn, is a half-sister to Listed Premio Nearco victor Stato King (GB) (Statoblest {Ire}) with this being the family of G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup heroine Rebelline (Ire) (Robellino). The March-foaled bay is a half-brother to Listed Cathedral S. and Listed Boadicea S. third Pixieleen (GB) (Pastoral Pursuits {GB}) and a weanling colt by Havana Grey (GB). He is also kin to the dam of last month's Listed Beverley Bullet Sprint winner Kerdos (Ire) (Profitable {Ire}) and the stakes-placed Dark Vintage (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire}).

Inquisitively (100/30) is a most likeable young sprinter and takes the Group 3 Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes at @NewmarketRace in taking style under William Buick. A notable success for @kpfracing. pic.twitter.com/eaJQFN6Z0n

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) October 13, 2023

Friday, Newmarket, Britain
NEWMARKET ACADEMY GODOLPHIN BEACON PROJECT CORNWALLIS S.-G3, £60,000, Newmarket, 10-13, 2yo, 5fT, :59.65, sf.
1–INQUISITIVELY (GB), 129, c, 2, by Ten Sovereigns (Ire)
1st Dam: Ballyalla (GB), by Mind Games (GB)
2nd Dam: Molly Brown (GB), by Rudimentary
3rd Dam: Sinking (GB), by Midyan
1ST GROUP WIN. (45,000gns Wlg '21 TADEWE; 40,000gns Ylg '22 TATOCT). O-Wee Sean Gan; B-Glebe Farm Stud (GB); T-Kevin Philippart De Foy; J-William Buick. £34,026. Lifetime Record: 4-2-1-1, $128,628. *1/2 to Pixeleen (GB) (Pastoral Pursuits {GB}), MSP-Eng, $114,191. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. Werk Nick Rating: A++. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree

2–Rosario (Ire), 129, g, 2, Harry Angel (Ire)–City Glam (Arg), by Grand Reward. (€36,000 Ylg '22 GOFFEB; 20,000gns Ylg '22 TATOCT). O-Mrs Sue Teal; B-Godolphin (IRE); T-Roger Teal. £12,900.
3–Unbreak My Heart (GB), 126, f, 2, Showcasing (GB)–Place In My Heart (GB), by Compton Place (GB). 1ST GROUP BLACK TYPE. O-C J Harper; B-Whitsbury Manor Stud (GB); T-Clive Cox. £6,456.
Margins: 1HF, HF, 1. Odds: 3.33, 10.00, 25.00.
Also Ran: Flora Of Bermuda (Ire), Miaharris (GB), Majestic Beauty (GB), Alaskan Gold (Ire), Alabama (Ire), Son Of Corballis (Ire), Asean (Ire), Tears Of A Clown (GB), Midnight Affair (Ire), Sweetest (Ire). Scratched: Toca Madera (Ire), Zoulu Chief (GB).

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The Spendthrift roster will feature three new stallions in 2024: Taiba (Gun Runner), Arabian Lion (Justify), and Zandon (Upstart). Taiba is already at the farm and will stand for $35,000, while the other two are being pointed toward the Breeders' Cup and fees will be determined upon retirement. The stallions at Spendthrift are led by four-time leading sire Into Mischief, who will stand for $250,000.

Spendthrift's current freshman sire roster for 2024, with fees, appears below.

• Omaha Beach–$40,000
• Maximus Mischief–$25,000
• Vino Rosso–$20,000
• Mitole–$15,000

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The Michael Appleby representative was the sharpest of eight into stride and seized an immediate lead racing underneath the stands' side rail. Comfortable on the front end until nudged along passing the quarter-mile marker, the 9-4 joint-favourite was strongly pressed by 'TDN Rising Star' Purosangue (GB) (Aclaim {Ire}) inside the final furlong and refused to buckle under a late drive to hold that rival by a neck in game fashion. Fellow joint-favourite Kylian (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) ran on well from off the pace to finish 1 1/4 lengths back in third.

“I don't think he really liked the [heavy] ground, but he has toughed it out and done that very well,” said Appleby. “He is as tough as anything and very quick, but that ground just blunted his speed. I think the [G1] Nunthorpe is a realistic target, but a 2-year-old has not won the Nunthorpe since Kingsgate Native [in 2007]. It is a possibility and we will speak even more when we have all calmed down a bit. As soon as we got Big Evs and started working him, we knew he was special and he would be the best we have had so far. Hopefully, he'll give us a first Group 1.”

Winning rider Jason Hart added, “I'd say he has won despite the ground. He's all 2-year-old and, with his good draw, it was the right thing to run him. He travelled grand, but at halfway he started hanging and I had to get him rolling forward to get him to negotiate that. We got racing sooner than I wanted, but I had to do that to keep him straight and he has proved he can dig deep. He is not very big, but he has plenty of speed and a real will to win. I am delighted for Mick [Appleby] and all the team.”

Reflecting on the performance of Purosangue, Andrew Balding commented, “We are just thrilled the horse is back on form. He created a very good impression first time out and we just thought he did things the wrong way round at Newmarket [in the G2 July S.]. That was much more like it and he was beaten by a very good horse. He won on pretty good ground at Haydock, so I think he's quite versatile. He looks like he is made for the [Listed] Roses S. at York.”

Pedigree Notes

Big Evs, the sixth of eight foals, is one of four scorers thrown by a daughter of G1 Cheveley Park S.-winning European champion Queen's Logic (Ire) (Grand Lodge), herself a half-sister to MG1SW sire Dylan Thomas (Ire) (Danehill) and G1 1000 Guineas heroine Homecoming Queen (Ire) (Holy Roman Emperor {Ire}). Queen's Logic's leading performer is G2 Lowther S., G2 Diadem S. and G3 Princess Margaret S. victrix Lady Of The Desert (Rahy), who also hit the board in the G1 Cheveley Park S., G1 Haydock Sprint Cup and G1 Prix de l'Abbaye. Lady Of The Desert, in turn, is the dam of G2 Lowther S. winner Queen Kindly (GB) (Frankel {GB}), herself the dam of Lowther runner-up and G3 Firth Of Clyde S. third Queen Me (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}). The March-foaled bay, whose family also features G1 Derby hero Serpentine (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) and G1 Moyglare Stud S. heroine Shale (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), is kin to a yearling filly by Ribchester (Ire) and a weanling colt by Earthlight (Ire).

Wednesday, Goodwood, Britain
JAEGER-LECOULTRE MOLECOMB S.-G3, £100,000, Goodwood, 8-2, 2yo, 5fT, 1:01.27, hy.
1–BIG EVS (IRE), 129, c, 2, by Blue Point (Ire)
1st Dam: Hana Lina (GB), by Oasis Dream (GB)
2nd Dam: Queen's Logic (Ire), by Grand Lodge
3rd Dam: Lagrion, by Diesis (GB)
1ST GROUP WIN. (50,000gns Ylg '22 TATOCT). O-RP Racing Ltd; B-Rabbah Bloodstock Ltd (IRE); T-Michael Appleby; J-Jason Hart. £56,710. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $147,349. Werk Nick Rating: A. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree, or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Purosangue (GB), 129, c, 2, Aclaim (Ire)–Avon Breeze (GB), by Avonbridge (GB). 1ST BLACK TYPE; 1ST GROUP BLACK TYPE. (£35,000 Ylg '22 GOFFUK; £125,000 2yo '23 GOUKB). O-Opulence Thoroughbreds & Teme Valley; B-Hellwood Stud Farm & R C Dollar (GB); T-Andrew Balding. £21,500.
3–Kylian (Ire), 129, c, 2, Invincible Spirit (Ire)–Hikmaa (Ire), by Roderic O'Connor (Ire). 1ST GROUP BLACK TYPE. O-Sheikh Hamed Dalmook Al Maktoum; B-Rabbah Bloodstock Ltd (IRE); T-Karl Burke. £10,760.
Margins: NK, 1 1/4, 3. Odds: 2.25, 5.50, 2.25.
Also Ran: Baheer (Ire), Markakol (GB), Shagraan (Ire), Hackman (Ire), Barnwell Boy (GB).

The Royal Ascot winner follows up at @Goodwood_Races!

Big Evs (Blue Point) shows tenacity as well as no little class to land the Molecomb Stakes, a first winner at the Qatar Goodwood Festival for @MickApplebyUK @jasonhart13 pic.twitter.com/sSqfepOdHp

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) August 2, 2023

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The first thing to stress is that it really shouldn't matter which of the stallions involved happens to bank the critical extra cents to claim the crown. That won't be how the marketing teams of their respective farms are viewing things, naturally, but any sensible breeder will consider the state of play on Dec. 31 as wholly random, given that a single maiden winner at Oaklawn or Fair Grounds could conceivably suffice to alter the standings 24 hours either side.

Far more importantly, all three have met historic standards that would in many years have secured them each the laurels. Through Wednesday, at $2,402,870, Bolt d'Oro had maintained the advantage he retrieved when Instant Coffee laid down a marker over the Derby course in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill last Saturday. That could prove a pivotal moment, as he was chased home by Curly Jack–a son of Good Magic, who similarly leads the pursuit of Bolt d'Oro on $2,282,082. Breathing down their necks, meanwhile, is Justify with $2,231,749.

Though all three would have been left gasping behind the record-breaking Gun Runner last year, Bolt d'Oro is about to nudge past 2020 champion Nyquist. In 2019, his current tally would have split American Pharoah and Constitution. And all three of the present protagonists have already comfortably exceeded each of the preceding champions until you reach Uncle Mo in 2015.

Each, moreover, has established a core of quality that measures up pretty creditably even to Gun Runner. Justify's six stakes and four graded stakes winners are a match for the Three Chimneys freak last year; Bolt d'Oro and Good Magic both have five and three. (Nyquist had just two stakes winners, but both won Grade I races!) In terms of overall stakes action, however, it is Bolt d'Oro who stands alone with 14 black-type operators at a remarkable 19.2% of starters. Gun Runner had eight at 12.7%.

As colleague Sid Fernando recently remarked, the rookies also have a strong presence in the overall table of juvenile sires. Into Mischief has a clear lead but presumptive champion Forte's sire Violence is only narrowly holding second from the contending trio. As Sid noted, with fellow freshmen Sharp Azteca seventh and Army Mule eighth, this table confirms how debut books are nowadays loaded to meet an ever-narrowing window of commercial opportunity.

Sid has since examined how Justify can be expected to keep consolidating, while I had already marked Good Magic's achievement as first to a Grade I success through Blazing Sevens in the Champagne S. It feels like high time, then, that “The Third Man” also received some attention.

Auspiciously, though his own sophomore career eventually tailed off into anti-climax, Bolt d'Oro actually feels no less entitled than his rivals–first and second in the GI Kentucky Derby, with Bolt d'Oro down the field (made only one subsequent start)–to produce horses that keep progressing at three.

How could he not, when his parents are respectively by El Prado (Ire) and A.P. Indy? His half-brother, moreover, is that admirable creature Global Campaign (Curlin), himself now at stud with WinStar after breaking into the elite late in his 4-year-old campaign. Bolt d'Oro offers all the requisite size, stretch and stride, too.

Bolt d'Oro romped in the 2017 FrontRunner | Benoit

With that in mind, he was a remarkably accomplished juvenile: he broke his maiden in a Del Mar sprint before winning two Grade Is in California, notably the FrontRunner S. by nearly eight lengths for a molten 103 Beyer. That ensured he started at short odds for a GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile staged in his backyard, but he was ridden via Nantucket, wide all the way, as Good Magic famously broke his maiden (the pair divided by the FrontRunner runner-up).

On his resumption Bolt d'Oro was awarded the GII San Felipe S. after taking a bump from head winner McKinzie (Street Sense); and is actually still seeking an equivalent promotion in the courts after Justify beat him three lengths in the GI Santa Anita Derby. According to the last I read on this–it's been hard to keep up!–Mick Ruis has a hearing in March to keep alive his complaint against Justify's retention of this prize, despite a drug overage.

One way or another, there has never been a dull moment with this horse. Trained by his owner for most of his career, Bolt d'Oro duly got plenty of attention on the Derby trail. Ruis, who retained a major interest in his deal with Spendthrift, bought a 330-acre farm outside Lexington to accommodate the mares that would support a colt he had bought for $630,000 as a Saratoga yearling. (An instructive price, considering that Global Campaign was then an unnamed weanling.) The young stallion gained less welcome headlines with his aggression, at one stage proving such a handful that help was sought from an equine behaviorist. In his first book, Bolt d'Oro was dignified by a visit from the dam of Rachel Alexandra–who was, of course, by his own sire Medaglia d'Oro–and the resulting colt made $1.4 million at Saratoga. (And actually made his debut, seemingly in need of it, half an hour after Instant Coffee came up the same track on Saturday.) The following spring, Spendthrift themselves sent Bolt d'Oro farm champion Beholder (Henny Hughes). And now he finds himself in this extraordinary fresh battle with two old racetrack rivals.

Medaglia d'Oro | Darley photo

Even Spendthrift couldn't launch Bolt d'Oro on quite the same scale as Ashford did Justify and Mendelssohn, who corralled 252 mares apiece. But he certainly saw predictable business at $25,000, with 214 mares in Kentucky followed by a shuttle stint in Australia. (In this connection, breeders in this day and age should always remember also to sort the freshman table by earnings-per-starter. On those terms Good Magic is doing best of the title protagonists–but not as well as Awesome Slew! And Oscar Performance deserves a mention here, too.)

Bolt d'Oro entertained another 146 mares in 2020, but could clearly have had more but for the prudent management of his boisterous conduct at the time. Given a businesslike trim to $15,000 last year–in line with his farm's wider approach to the uncertainties of the pandemic market–he maintained business at 153 mares. Interestingly, however, both his fee ($20,000) and his book (174) moved back up this spring after a warm reception for his first yearlings.

Though he had taken as many as 114 to market, he found a home for 97 of them at $155,097. That average put him behind only Justify, who obviously had to turn round a much bigger opening fee ($150,000) and did so at $373,083; and City of Light, who made such a stellar start at $337,698. Just behind came Mendelssohn and Good Magic, at $153,611 and $151,708, respectively.

This year, remarkably, Bolt d'Oro has bucked the usual trend and actually advanced his average with his second crop of yearlings. He processed 54 of 61 offered at $172,027, still third but closing the gap on Justify ($304,692) and City of Light ($237,047) and edging away from Good Magic ($131,760) and Mendelssohn ($98,969).

In between, moreover, he had been credited with the most expensive filly by a freshman sire at the 2-year-old sales when Spendthrift gave $1.2 million for an $85,000 yearling pinhook from Tom McCrocklin at the Gulfstream Sale, in the process assisting their own sire to a juvenile average of $239,549–surpassed only by Justify.

Bolt d'Oro's $1.2-million filly out of Rich Love this spring | Fasig-Tipton

Everything that has ensued on the racetrack, then, only maintains a wider momentum for Bolt d'Oro, whose fee for 2023 has been set at $35,000.

One of the most pleasing aspects of his success is its contribution to the tragically abbreviated legacy of his dam, who died after delivering only her third foal. He turned out to be Global Campaign; the first was Grade II-placed, multiple stakes winner Sonic Mule (Distorted Humor). Seldom has the expression “three strikes and out” been so poignantly apt.

Globe Trot, sold by her family's curators at Claiborne as a yearling, was out of triple graded stakes winner Trip (Lord At War {Arg}), herself half-sister to the stakes-winning dam of Zensational (Unbridled's Song)–the legendary Jimmy Crupi pinhook ($20,000 to $700,000) who won three Grade I sprints as a sophomore.

Zensational helps to make this one of the faster lines tracing to the matriarch Myrtlewood. Globe Trot and Trip, though both by stamina influences, operated around a mile; the next dam, a stakes winner by Forty Niner, was a sprinter. So, too, was Sonic Mule. Zensational's half-sister produced Cutting Humor (First Samurai), who set a track record in the GIII Sunland Park Derby. And Globe Trot herself was a half-sister to the dam of Recruiting Ready (Algorithms), who earned over $800,000 round a single turn (notably in the GIII Gulfstream Park Sprint S.). Even Bolt d'Oro was himself dropped in distance for what proved his final start in the GI Met Mile.

So there's evidently a nice balance here, complementing the sturdy influences behind Globe Trot: like her own sire A.P. Indy, her damsire Lord At War is an obviously wholesome distaff brand. The broodmare sire of Pioneerof the Nile and War Emblem was a guarantor of splendidly durable stock, especially on turf.

As such, Lord At War adds an interesting flavor to the sire line now being extended by Bolt d'Oro. The flexible influence of Medaglia d'Oro is well established, and the first two graded stakes winners by Bolt d'Oro himself both arrived in switching to grass: Major Dude in the GII Pilgrim S., and Boppy O in the GIII With Anticipation S. Bolt d'Oro has also had a $50,000 yearling, Bold Discovery, Group-placed in Ireland on his second start; plus a rather more expensive export, From Dusk ($900,000 OBS March 2-year-old), beaten a length in a field of 18 for a Group 2 in Tokyo.

Instant Coffee won Churchill's KYJC this past Saturday | Coady

But the versatility of Medaglia d'Oro also embraces rather more precocity than has sometimes seemed the case. Forte, don't forget, is another grandson featuring early on the Triple Crown trail; and now we can throw Instant Coffee into the mix for Bolt d'Oro after Owen's Leap (Sanford S.) and Agency (GIII Best Pal S.) both finished second in summer dirt sprints.

If only with a fairly formal credit as breeder, Instant Coffee represents a residue of Kevin Plank's attempt to revive Sagamore Farm. His dam Follow No One (Uncle Mo) was bought for $100,000 by farm president Hunter Rankin at OBS April in 2016, and went on to be stakes-placed the following year. When she failed to sell ($85,000 RNA) as a broodmare prospect at the Keeneland November Sale of 2018, Plank evidently agreed to a deal with Rankin's parents Alex and Sarah at Upson Downs Farm.

The choice of Bolt d'Oro as the mare's first mate itself had a nice Sagamore echo: the farm had raced Recruiting Ready, and partnered with WinStar in Global Campaign. With Hunter having meanwhile joined Alex on the Churchill Downs team, the Rankins certainly have an early rooting interest for the Derby!

Upson Downs sold Instant Coffee for $200,000 at the September Sale last year to Joe Hardoon, agent–the colt is trained for Gold Square LLC by Brad Cox–and returned this time round with his half-sister by Frosted. As luck should have it, Instant Coffee won on debut at Saratoga just a few days before the auction, helping her to realize $160,000 from HR Bloodstock. Unfortunately, Follow No One lost a Speightstown foal this year but she has been bred back to Maclean's Music.

Instant Coffee has an unusually compressed maternal family. Himself a first foal, he duly extends a sequence of young producers. Even his fifth dam was born as late as 1991; while the final foal of third dam Miss Mary Apples (Clever Trick), won the GIII Matron S. as recently as October. As foundation mare for KatieRich Farms, Miss Mary Apples had already produced three other stakes winners, including GI Kentucky Oaks-placed millionaire Lady Apple (Curlin) and Follow No One's dam Miss Red Delicious (Empire Maker), a hardy runner who won two dirt stakes at seven furlongs.

The recent action in this family actually stokes up the embers of one of the great beacons: Instant Coffee's sixth dam is a full-sister to none other than Affirmed. It has been well seeded, too: Uncle Mo, Empire Maker, Clever Trick and Holy Bull are a pretty resonant bunch of broodmare sires to find behind a horse with Derby aspirations.

For all the pep we've noted behind Bolt d'Oro himself, then, this is a pedigree strewn with Classic brands. And if Instant Coffee could parlay those into a Kentucky Derby, then who would still be counting the dimes won by his sire's other stock in the last days of December?

The post Bolt d’Oro an Instant Hit appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Also threatening to make the top 10 by year's end are Coolmore America's Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) in 11th, Mill Ridge's Oscar Performance (Kitten's Joy) in 15th, and Lane's End's City of Light (Quality Road) in 16th.

To put this in perspective, consider that among freshman sires in 2014 only Lane's End's Quality Road (seventh) and WinStar's Super Saver (ninth) made the top 10 list; in 2015, Coolmore America's Uncle Mo (first) was the sole first-crop representative; in 2016, there was only Darby Dan's Dialed In (ninth); in 2017, the two freshmen were WinStar's Overanalyze (ninth) and Hill 'n' Dale's Violence (10th); in 2018, only Spendthrift's duo of Cross Traffic (fourth) and Goldencents (10th) made the cut; in 2019, Coolmore America's American Pharoah (second), WinStar's Constitution (fourth), and Three Chimneys's Palace Malice (eighth) made it three for the young guns; in 2020, another trio made the list, with Darley's Nyquist (third) topping Sequel/WinStar's Laoban (fifth) and Taylor Made's Not This Time (sixth).

Last year, four freshman sires made the top 10: Three Chimneys's Gun Runner (first), Coolmore America's Practical Joke (third), Lane's End's Connect (fifth), and Coolmore America's Classic Empire (10th).

The trend is obvious, isn't it? More freshman sires are flexing their way into the top 10 this year than before, and it's not like they were uniformly the recipients of the best mares. At an opening stud fee of $150,000, Triple Crown winner Justify was getting that quality of mare, but horses like Girvin, who started off for $7,500 at Ocala Stud in Florida; Sharp Azteca at $10,000; and Army Mule at $10,000 were not.

Bolt d'Oro ($25,000), Good Magic ($35,000), Mendelssohn ($35,000), Oscar Performance ($20,000) and City of Light ($35,000) were priced to compete with one another in 2019, but they were cheaper than a number of proven sires not in the top 20 to date, such as Tapit ($225,000), Speightstown ($80,000), More Than Ready ($80,000), Ghostzapper ($85,000), Candy Ride (Arg) ($80,000), Curlin ($175,000), and Quality Road ($150,000), to name a few.

The five Breeders' Cup juvenile races will play a pivotal role in deciding where these freshmen end up when all is said and done, but several have live contenders, including the three just outside the top 10.

For first-crop sire watchers, it's going to be an interesting Breeders' Cup.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Among freshmen, Good Magic, a champion 2-year-old, holds a strong pair for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile with Breeders' Cup Challenge winner Blazing Sevens, who won the Gl Champagne S. at Belmont-at-Aqueduct, and Curly Jack, winner of the Glll Iroquois S. at Churchill. So far, Good Magic is the sire of 17 winners and three black-type winners–each of them at graded level. Only Justify has as many graded/group winners, but no freshman except for Good Magic has sired a Grade l winner so far.

Justify, who didn't race at two, has a contender in Verifying, who was second to Blazing Sevens in the Champagne, and he leads all freshman sires with four black-type winners. He's represented by 20 winners overall.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

City of Light has a good chance in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies with Chop Chop, who lost the Gl Darley Alcibiades S. at Keeneland by a nose. She's one of three black-type winners for City of Light from eight winners so far.

Good Magic's Gll Sorrento S. winner at Del Mar, Vegas Magic, was most recently fourth in the Gl Del Mar Debutante, but she has points and has been training forwardly.

Justify's Just Cindy, winner of the Glll Schuylerville S. at Saratoga in July, has since been defeated in both the Gl Spinaway at Saratoga and the Alcibiades, but his daughter Justique, most recently third in the Gll Chandelier S. at Santa Anita, may be a possibility for the race.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Mendelssohn's Delight won the Gll J.P. Morgan Chase Jessamine S. at Keeneland, a Breeders' Cup Challenge race, by five lengths with her ears pricked and looks a strong contender for the North American contingent. She's her sire's lone black-type winner from 17 winners overall.

Oscar Performance's G Laurie has points for the race as well. She was third in the Gl Natalma S. at Woodbine with a troubled trip and is one of 11 winners for Oscar Performance, who is represented by one black-type winner to date–the Grade ll-winning colt Andthewinneris.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Andthewinneris won the Gll Bourbon S. at Keeneland, a Breeders' Cup Challenge race, leading a one-two finish for Oscar Performance with Deer District in second. Not only that, Oscar Performance also has Lachaise, who was third in the Gll Pilgrim S. at Belmont-at-Aqueduct, with points for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

Bolt d'Oro also has a couple of contenders. His Major Dude won the aforementioned Pilgrim, a Challenge race, and Boppy O won the Glll With Anticipation S. at Saratoga. They are two of four black-type winners for Bolt d'Oro, who is represented by 19 winners.

City of Light's Battle of Normandy, second in the With Anticipation, also has points for the race, as does freshman sire Cloud Computing (Maclean's Music) with I'm Very Busy, second in the Pilgrim. Cloud Computing doesn't have a black-type winner yet, but he's represented by eight winners.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

Sharp Azteca's undefeated Iowa-bred Tyler's Tribe has been penciled in for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He's never raced over turf, but he's registered some sparkling Beyer Speed Figures in dirt sprints, and his sire has been represented by some turf winners. Tyler's Tribe is one of three black-type winners for Sharp Azteca, who has 23 winners. One of them is Sharp Aza Tack, who won the Listed Tyro S. at Monmouth over five furlongs on turf by 7 1/4 lengths, and he could be a possibility for this race as well. He last worked five furlongs over Keeneland's all-weather training track in 1:00.20 Saturday.

City of Light's Gaslight Dancer, who was second by a neck in the six-furlong Glll Futurity S. at Belmont-at-Aqueduct on turf, also has points for the race.

A Takeaway

The freshman sires competing to make this list are doing so not only against others with first crops, but also against established sires. They are also fighting to make themselves relevant for next year, because in the commercial marketplace that now exists, a poor showing this year will mean fewer mares to cover next spring. It's paramount, therefore, that they get some graded winners or a Grade l winner among their first 2-year-olds, and it's for this reason that stud farms front load their books as much as they can with more quality than most will see again unless they are successful.

One result of this is that a stallion's second, third and fourth books usually tend to yield less quality than the first, and yearling buyers, aware of this phenomenon, tend to pay more for first-crop yearlings.

Moreover, even those stallions that end up in the top 10 this year aren't necessarily guaranteed to succeed, unless their first 3-year-olds continue to win next year. Note that in 2017, Overanalyze was ninth on this list but is no longer in Kentucky, while Violence, who was 10th the same year, has continued to make a mark and is represented by Forte, the leading 2-year-old in the East this year.

Some excellent stallions have also emerged from a prominent spot as freshmen on this list over the years. In 2014, it was Quality Road; in 2015, Uncle Mo; in 2019, American Pharoah and Constitution; in 2020, Not This Time; and last year, Gun Runner.

   Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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“It was Plan Z as she missed the break and was a lot further back than intended, but I was impressed as she had to make a lot of ground up,” said Charlie Johnston. “Because she made such a big effort I thought she was going to pay for that in the last 150 yards, but she managed to find even more so it was impressive. She's by Cracksman so you wouldn't expect her to be doing this already and, even though it's a small sample size, the Cracksmans are making an impression. We've got three, two have won and the other will be out soon. She's in the [G2] Debutante and [G1] Moyglare in Ireland and I suspect her next run will either be the Moyglare or the [G2] May Hill at Doncaster. Those look the two best options for her. They are in September which is a far way away, but if anything you'd think she would improve for going [up to] a mile.”

Dance In The Grass, half-sister to a yearling colt by Ulysses (Ire) and a weanling colt by Too Darn Hot (GB), is the first of three foals produced by Listed Daisy Warwick S. third Dance The Dream (GB) (Sir Percy {GB}), herself a half-sister to G3 Dee S. placegetter Rasmy (GB) (Red Ransom) out of stakes-winning G1 Vodafone Oaks third Shadow Dancing (GB) (Unfuwain). Shadow Dancing is a daughter of Listed Cheshire Oaks victrix and G2 Park Hill S. runner-up Salchow (GB) (Niniski), herself a half-sister to G3 Chester Vase-winning sire Gulland (GB) (Unfuwain).

Thursday, Sandown, Britain
EUROPEAN BLOODSTOCK NEWS EBF STAR S.-Listed, £40,500, Sandown, 7-21, 2yo, f, 7fT, 1:30.16, g/f.
1–DANCE IN THE GRASS (GB), 128, f, 2, by Cracksman (GB)
1st Dam: Dance The Dream (GB) (SP-Eng), by Sir Percy (GB)
2nd Dam: Shadow Dancing (GB), by Unfuwain
3rd Dam: Salchow (GB), by Niniski
1ST BLACK-TYPE WIN. (57,000gns Ylg '21 TATOCT). O-Jaber Abdullah; B-Minster Stud & Mrs H Dalgety (GB); T-Charlie & Mark Johnston; J-Silvestre de Sousa. £22,968. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $34,261.
2–Fairy Cross (Ire), 128, f, 2, Dubawi (Ire)–Devonshire (Ire), by Fast Company (Ire). 1ST BLACK TYPE. O/B-Godolphin (IRE); T-Charlie Appleby. £8,708.
3–Lady Alara (Ire), 128, f, 2, Invincible Spirit (Ire)–Red Halo (Ire), by Galileo (Ire). 1ST BLACK TYPE. (€75,000 Wlg '20 GOFNOV; 110,000gns RNA Ylg '21 TATOCT). O-Alara Investments Ltd; B-High Rollers (IRE); T-Charles Hills. £4,358.
Margins: 3/4, 6, NK. Odds: 2.75, 3.00, 8.00.
Also Ran: Bet Me (Ire), Inanna (Ire), Mlle Chanel (GB), Ipanema Princess (Ire), Ibiza Love (Ire), Pure Gold (GB), Tagline (GB).

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1st-Leicester, £7,000, Mdn, 6-11, 2yo, 7fT, 1:23.36, g/f.
LION OF WAR (GB) (c, 2, Roaring Lion–Momentus {Ire} {SP-Eng}, by Montjeu {Ire}) raced off the pace in ninth through the early fractions of this debut. Tanking forward from halfway, the 7-2 chance seized control approaching the final furlong and was ridden out in the closing stages to defeat Zara's Return (GB) (Zarak {Fr}) by a comfortable 2 1/4 lengths, becoming the first winner from the lone crop of his freshman sire (by Kitten's Joy). “He was a monster compared to the rest of the field, he was professional to post and knew his job,” said rider Cieren Fallon. “I let him get into a rhythm and when I asked him for his effort he gave it to me. He's got a nice action and it was quick ground out there, but he wouldn't want it any quicker than it was today. It's a nice start and there's a lot more improvement there.” Lion of War is the latest of three foals and first scorer produced by Listed Lingfield Oaks Trial third Momentus (Ire) (Montjeu {Ire}), herself a half-sister to stakes-winning G2 Joel S. runner-up Sir John Lavery (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}). The April-foaled bay's second dam, G3 Denny Cordell Lavarack Fillies S. victrix Race For The Stars (Fusaichi Pegasus), is kin to four black-type performers headed by MG1SW sire Hawk Wing (Woodman). Sales history: 7,000gns Ylg '21 TATOCT. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, £3,780.

1ST-TIME STARTER. O-Qatar Racing Ltd; B-Andrew Whitlock Racing Ltd (GB); T-Charlie & Mark Johnston.

A first winner for our World Champion Roaring Lion as Lion Of War makes an impressive debut win for @Qatar_Racing and @Johnston_Racing

The 2yo colt was bred by Andrew Whitlock and bought by @dredvers for just 7,000gns as a yearling.

Congratulations to all connections pic.twitter.com/4qSSGrdulp

— Tweenhills (@Tweenhills) June 11, 2022

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