The first weekend in March has traditionally served as a launch pad for sophomores who figure to excel in the spring Classics and beyond. Of all the prep stakes currently carded at 1 1/16 miles, the two that have historically been the most prolific producers of Derby winners have been the GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park (with 14 starters going on to win the Run for the Roses) and the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Park (with 13).

This year, neither race figures to be a reliable measuring stick for calibrating the division's true horsepower.

The 1-5 favorite Dornoch (Good Magic) wired four overmatched foes in Saturday's Fountain of Youth S. But it will be difficult to discern where the full-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage stands in the pecking order off that effort considering four other rivals scratched out of the race, including the three ranked closest to Dornoch on the morning line.

Out in California, the San Felipe S. lured just five entrants. Three were from Bob Baffert's barn–meaning they are ineligible to compete in the Derby because of Churchill Downs's corporate banishment of the Hall-of-Fame trainer. Then the day before the race, Baffert scratched the undefeated Nysos (Nyquist). The colt's defection not only drained the San Felipe of its star, but it meant that only two starters out of that stakes would be able to earn Derby qualifying points (the San Felipe's 6:02 p.m. Eastern post time Sunday was too late to include analysis for this column).

Using the most recent version of TDN's Sophomore Top 12 as a guide, it is difficult to zero in on any must-use betting interests for the 150th Derby based on what we have seen so far in the '24 prep season.

You can skim the Nos. 1, 2 and 7 contenders straight off that list for Derby consideration. 'Rising Stars' Nysos, Muth (Good Magic), and Maymun (Frosted) are all Baffert trainees who won't be Louisville-bound because of the Churchill ban.

Seeing these top California-based colts perform in other stakes has also become elusive. Over the last two weekends, Baffert has scratched Nysos from the San Felipe S. because of a sudden desire to give that 1-5 morning-line favorite more time off between starts, and he opted not to enter Muth in the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. (where he would have been the heavy favorite), when he didn't like how the colt's final workout for that race turned out. Both colts are reportedly fine physically; they are now tentatively expected to contest the GI Santa Anita Derby and GI Arkansas Derby, respectively.

The Nos. 3, 5, 6 and 9 contenders on the Sophomore Top 12 all share the dubious distinction of failing to advance in terms of Beyer Speed Figures from age two to three–even though three of those four won their first sophomore starts.

No. 3-rated 'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner)'s Beyer pattern declined from 91 to 90 when that colt won the Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds.

No. 5-ranked juvenile champ Fierceness, a 'TDN Rising Star' by City of Light, saw his Beyer dip from 105 to 84 after winning the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November, then running a no-impact third at 1-5 odds in the GIII Holy Bull S. in February.

No. 6-slotted Dornoch (Good Magic)'s winning 88 Beyer in the Fountain of Youth S. represented a three-point haircut off a 91 earned in his GII Remsen S. score.

The No. 9-ranked 'TDN Rising Star' Timberlake (Into Mischief) captured the Rebel S., inheriting 4-5 favoritism when Muth wasn't entered. But his 93 Beyer from that win equates to a three-race plateau at that figure without any numerical advancement over a five-month span.

Conquest Warrior, another 'TDN Rising Star,' was pegged at No. 8 in the most recent Sophomore Top 12. He uncorked a five-length smackdown score at 1-5 odds in a Gulfstream nine-furlong allowance on Friday against five rivals. But this son of City of Light remains untested against stakes company and will attempt to garner his first Derby qualifying points after replicating, not bettering, an 84 Beyer from his Jan. 13 maiden win.

The two Todd Pletcher-trained horses holding down the Nos. 10 and 12 spots on TDN's Top 12, Locked (Gun Runner) and Speak Easy (Constitution), were both unexpected defections from the Fountain of Youth S.

Pletcher scratched 'TDN Rising Star' Locked Saturday after not liking the way the colt had moved in a morning gallop. Locked, who won the GI Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland and ran third as the beaten favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, has now missed consecutive starts after a fever kept him out of the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Feb. 6. He remains unraced in 2024.

Speak Easy, a 100-Beyer winner in his Jan. 27 debut, was challenging Dornoch for favoritism in the Fountain of Youth S. when he unseated his jockey in pre-race warm-ups and reportedly ran into the rail and sustained a superficial cut, necessitating a scratch.

The plethora of recent, high-profile no-shows against the backdrop of Derby contenders being lightly raced to begin with underscores the missing-in-action vibe that is attaching itself to this year's sophomore crop.

With that in mind, maybe it's time to start looking for horses of interest in prep stakes that don't traditionally yield Derby contenders. Saturday's GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct and the ungraded John Battaglia Memorial S. at Turfway both produced winners who, at the very least, seem to have forward momentum going for them.

Deterministic (Liam's Map) is now 2-for-2 after splashing home first in the Gotham S. He stalked and pounced from mid-pack, splitting rivals in the stretch to register a 93-Beyer victory coming off a nearly seven-month layoff for trainer Christophe Clement. The colt will ship back to Payson Park, where he's been training this winter, while his connections mull a next start.

Encino (Nyquist) improved his record to 2-for-3 in Tapeta routes at Turfway, with his only loss being a neck defeat when second in his debut for trainer Brad Cox. He overcame post 11 in the Battaglia S. despite getting hooked four wide on both turns and running up on the heels of the favorite at the three-sixteenths pole. After shifting outward and regaining his stalled momentum, Encino scored by a measured length, earning an 89 Beyer. Next-race plans have yet to be formulated.

Despite a history that dates to 1953, only one Gotham S. starter has ever won the Derby–the mighty Secretariat, who won both those stakes in 1973.

The Battaglia S., which dates to 1982 but has only been a points-awarding Derby prep since 2021, has also yielded exactly one Derby winner from its roster of starters–the 80-1 shocker Rich Strike in 2022, who ran fourth in that year's Battaglia.

You can't get much farther apart on the spectrum of Derby winners than Secretariat and Rich Strike.

But then again, this is a Triple Crown prep campaign that is shaping up to be a ripe, open season for Derby dreamers, so don't dismiss the winners of the Gotham and Battaglia based solely on their unconventional prep-race paths.

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“He's great. He looked good this morning. He cooled out nice. We're happy with him. He ate up well,” Gargan said. “We're pleased with him.”

Following Dornoch's professional performance as the 1-5 favorite in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth, Gargan said the 3-year-old full-brother to 2023 GI Kentucky Derby winner Mage would likely return in either the Mar. 30 GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream or the Apr. 6 GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

Gargan said a spate of scratches from the Fountain of Youth caused him to call an audible Saturday.

“We wanted to sit behind horses. The scratches hurt. We just decided to go ahead and take control of the race. He did it pretty handily,” Gargan said. “He didn't have to run too hard, so we'll have plenty of horse. We should be able to come back quick and be fine. We're just got to keep moving and stay lucky.”

Vicente Stella Stables LLC's Le Dom Bro (Mucho Macho Man), who made an inside challenge at the top of the stretch before settling for second at 27-1, also exited the Fountain of Youth in good order and is likely to make his next start in the Florida Derby.

“I'd say it's 90% for the Florida Derby,” said Vicente Stella.

Also on track for the Florida Derby is Hades (Awesome Slew). The undefeated winner of the GIII Holy Bull S. worked four furlongs Sunday morning at Gulfstream in :48.64 (15/52).

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“We like the post and the way he's been training,” trainer Todd Pletcher said Thursday.

Irad Ortiz Jr., who was slated to ride Speak Easy Friday, will have the return mount in the Fountain of Youth.

Speak Easy had been installed as the 3-5 morning-line favorite in a field of seven 3-year-olds entered in Friday's seventh race, a 1 1/8-mile optional-claiming allowance. Courtlandt Farms' Conquest Warrior (City of Light) is expected to be favored in his absence. Trained by Shug McGaughey, Conquest Warrior was tabbed a 'TDN Rising Star' following a gutsy victory in a Jan. 13 maiden special weight race.

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Dornoch, who set swift fractions in the nine-furlong race Saturday, appeared defeated with a furlong to run when he bumped the rail and allowed Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) to surge past him. But Dornoch battled back along the inside and stuck his nose back in front in the final stride.

“It's crazy. Usually when a horse hits the rail at the eighth pole like he did, they just stop running altogether,” said Gargan. “I can't believe he re-rallied after that. He did see the other horse and get running back at him, but hitting the rail knocked him off stride and then it took him a few jumps to get back going. I think if he doesn't hit the rail, he stays in front. I've never seen a horse get passed a length and then come back and win. It was a really good race.”

Dornoch, a full-brother to this year's Derby winner Mage, will head south to winter at Palm Meadows with possible early 2024 targets including the GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct or the GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park, according to Gargan.

“He'll tack walk for two or three weeks and then we'll figure it out from there,” said Gargan. “We'll probably see him around the Fountain of Youth. The Withers is always something you could win real easy if you wanted to win a race, it just depends who's where.”

Of what he would like to see from the colt over the winter, Gargan said, “We need him to focus running. He kind of looks around playing a little bit, and that's why he hit the rail. He's got to grow up a lot, and he's still out there goofing off. He did dig in in this race in the end, but he kind of put himself in that situation running green early. I think if another horse is around him, he won't lose focus. What we'll probably do next time is bring him off the pace which he can do. He'll finish in the lane so he'll get a little more out of the race and mature a little bit from it.”

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NBC Sports will produce and air a two-hour telecast from 4-6 p.m. (ET) on CNBC. Five of the six stakes broadcast on the show will be part of a special All-Graded Stakes 1/ST COAST-TO-COAST PICK 5. The bet is a $1 minimum with a 15% takeout.

1/ST Racing and Gaming and NBC are working together on the special charity Pick 5 bet with the winnings to be allocated to the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance. NBC reporters Nick Luck and Britney Eurton will team up to face off against NBC analysts Randy Moss and Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey in a friendly competition. Each team will have $500 to bet on the Coast-To-Coast Pick 5 with the winnings being donated to the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance.

1/ST Racing & Gaming will donate $1000 to Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance no matter the outcome of the wagers.

“We are proud to support the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance and are always looking for ways to raise awareness and donations to support their great work. This Saturday's 1/ST Racing Tour is shaping up to be an epic day of racing. With 13 stakes races and 263 horses entered at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park, we thought we'd add to the excitement with a little help from our friends at NBC,” said Aidan Butler, Chief Executive Officer, 1/ST Racing & Gaming.

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Gulfstream's Jan. 28 card will also include the $1-million Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational and the $500,000 GIII Pegasus World Cup F/M Turf Invitational, as well as four other graded events.

The Florida Derby is the culmination of Gulfstream's series of Triple Crown preps. The series will kick off Jan. 1 with the $150,000 Mucho Macho Man S. and will be followed by the $250,000 GIII Holy Bull S. Feb. 4 and the $400,000 GII Fountain of Youth S. Mar. 4.

The Florida Derby card features 10 stakes, including six graded events.

“This year's Championship Meet will continue Gulfstream's tradition of hosting many of the top horses, horsemen and women, jockeys from around the world, and some of the sport's most spectacular events,” said Aidan Butler, 1/ST RACING. “With races like the Pegasus World Cup Invitational, Florida Derby, Fountain of Youth and Gulfstream Park Oaks–along with the opening of Gulfstream's new world-class turf course–we believe this winter season will be one of the sport's most anticipated and popular meets.”

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Lopez was aboard eventual runner-up In Due Time (Not This Time) when the field of 3-year-olds bunched up on the far turn of the Fountain of Youth. In Due Time shifted out, which looked to cause High Oak (Gormley), under Junior Alvarado, to clip heels and fall. Galt (Medaglia d'Oro) and jockey Joel Rosario fell as they attempted to avoid the fallen High Oak.

The stewards reviewed the incident after the race, but made no changes to the order of finish.

In announcing Lopez's suspension Wednesday, Gulfstream Park also announced that additional cameras would be added and installed in the near future to provide the stewards better views of each race on dirt, turf and Tapeta.

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“Yesterday, good break, a little problem in traffic, and when the jockey took him outside, the horse ran well,” trainer Antonio Sano said Sunday morning. “I am proud of my horse. I'm happy for all the support the people give to me. I'm happy for another chance to win the GI Kentucky Derby.”

Simplification earned 50 Derby qualifying points for his 3 1/2-length victory at Gulfstream Saturday and gave Sano his second Fountain of Youth win following Gunnevera (Dialed In)'s 2017 score.

Fountain of Youth runner-up In Due Time (Not This Time) exited the race in good order, but connections will wait to pick out a next start for the colt.

“We always thought that he was a nice horse,” trainer Kelly Breen said of In Due Time. “We were contemplating going to Tampa, but I wanted to stay here in surroundings he's been accustomed to, and because of his affinity for the track, not that he doesn't like any other track. Why do anything different? I thought he ran a creditable race against a nice field of horses.”

Breen continued, “Where we go from here? I'm going to wait for him to get back onto the track and see how he's training. The Florida Derby is in our backyard, but I won't say anything until I talk to the owners and come up with a game plan.”

Also likely for the Florida Derby is O Captain (Carpe Diem), who finished third in the Fountain of Youth as an 87-1 longshot.

“We expected him to run a big race. He was training so good for it,” Gustavo Delgado, Jr., assistant to his father Gustavo Delgado, Sr., said. “We knew he would like the mile and a sixteenth because of his family.”

Junior Alvarado and Joel Rosario, who were unseated when their mounts High Oak (Gormley) and Galt (Medaglia d'Oro), respectively, fell on the turn into the homestretch in the Fountain of Youth, escaped serious injury. Alvarado took off his scheduled mounts Sunday, but is expected to return to action for Wednesday's program at Gulfstream. Both horses also escaped injury.

White Abarrio (Race Day), who defeated Simplification by 4 1/2 lengths to win the Feb. 5 GIII Holy Bull S., skipped the Fountain of Youth, but prepped for the Florida Derby with a four-furlong work in :47.12 (2/125) at Gulfstream Sunday.

“He worked really well second work back. We were looking for a little bit more and we emphasized galloping out because we're looking to build up his stamina a bit more,” trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. said. “The gallop-out was as good as the work.”

Of the Fountain of Youth result, Joseph said, “I'm a big believer in form lines, as far as horses that you beat coming back to win. To see Sano's horse come back and run like that was a big result for us. Full credit to Sano for having his horse ready to run like that.”

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“It's kind of fun to watch him run,” Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey said Sunday morning after reporting that all was well with Greatest Honour, who was settling back in at his winter home at Payson Park in Indiantown, Fla.

Greatest Honour finished the 1 1/16-mile stakes for Triple Crown hopefuls at the Hallandale Beach, Fla., track in a manner that hardly told the story of his journey to the Gulfstream Park winner's circle. The dirt that covered the son of Tapit as his pictured was being taken was much more telling of challenges the homebred colt had to overcome in order to come through for the bettors who had made him their even-money favorite.

Although he was getting dirt kicked in his face as he raced in traffic well behind pacesetting Drain the Clock along the length of the backstretch, Greatest Honor was hardly about to play the role of a 90-pound weakling.  Once he found running room to his outside on the far turn, the McGaughey trainee flexed his considerable muscle and powered his way to a 1 ½-length victory under Jose Ortiz.

“I knew we were in trouble. I was kind of waiting to see how it unfolded. You know, I'm not one to give up until it's time to give up. I knew things weren't going the way we wanted them to go,” McGaughey said. “They weren't going that fast in front of us. I saw what was happening and I felt like if we could get him to the outside we'd have a chance. That's exactly what happened.”

Greatest Honour's gutsy victory in the Fountain of Youth was considerably more testing that his 5 ¾-length romp in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull (G3) Jan. 30 at Gulfstream.

“The Holy Bull – everything went perfect. [Saturday], he didn't get anything perfect and he came back and won,” McGaughey said. “He was doing something he didn't want to do – to run a mile and a sixteenth over this racetrack with the short pole. I'm just glad I don't have to do that anymore.

“I was on the fence whether I wanted to run him back going a mile and a sixteenth here or not,” he added. “I decided that the way he worked last Sunday, it was time to go. Now, we have longer races in front of us. I still think his future is in front of him.”

Greatest Honour is being pointed to the $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill 'n Dale Farm at Xalapa March 27 at Gulfstream. McGaughey is hoping that Greatest Honour will follow the example set by Orb, whom he saddled for victories in the 2013 Fountain of Youth, 1 1/8-Florida Derby and the 1 ¼-mile Kentucky Derby (G1).

Greatest Honour virtually earned his way into the Kentucky Derby field with his victory in the Fountain of Youth, which offered 50 qualifying points for the May 1^st Derby. He currently sits atop the standings with 60 points.

McGaughey also reported that Performer exited his third-place finish as the favorite in the $200,000 WinStar Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) in good order.

“I think he was fighting the racetrack a little bit,” said McGaughey, whose trainee had captured the Fred W. Hooper (G3) in his previous start. “I think it's one of those things that it just wasn't his day.

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Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. said Sunday morning that the sophomore son of Into Mischief, also bred by Three Chimneys, is likely to make his next start in the $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa March 27.

The Florida Derby offers 170 qualifying points (100-40-20-10) to the May 1 Kentucky Derby (G1), as do the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct and Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland, both run April 3. All three preps are contested at 1 1/8 miles.

“The Florida Derby is at home and he just has to walk out of his stall,” Joseph said. “I talked to the owners briefly yesterday and it will probably be between the Florida Derby, the Wood or the Blue Grass, but the Florida Derby will be the front-runner.

“Off [Saturday's] race, we're probably going to take a chance somewhere,” he added. “We feel like he's a Derby horse. I know we're a little behind schedule, but with the ability he has he can probably overcome it.”

Collaborate broke sharply and set a measured pace under jockey Tyler Gaffalione, going in splits of 23.72 seconds, 46.57 and 1:11.12 before beginning to edge away from his 10 rivals. He hit the stretch six lengths in front and kept rolling to win by 12 ½ at the end in 1:36.35 for one mile over a fast main track.

“We weren't surprised. That's hard to say with a horse winning like that but that's the horse we thought he was,” Joseph said. “The first time out, we got him beat. It hurt to get him beat first time out, because we thought he was that good, but you always have to look at the positive in each scenario and the first time I thought he gained valuable experience.”

Collaborate also went off as the favorite for his debut, a six-furlong maiden special weight Feb. 6, where he endured traffic issues after getting away poorly and wound up sixth though beaten just 1 ¼ lengths.

“He was off a tad slow, took a lot of dirt, had to split horses, had to wait, [but] I thought the experience first time out was priceless,” Joseph said. “It hurt getting him beat, but if you draw the positives from the race it was priceless experience and it carried over to yesterday. He stretched out to a mile for the first time and he got a fairly easy race which, in hindsight, I don't mind because his first race I thought was a pretty hard race on him.”

Joseph made his Triple Crown race debut last fall with John Fanelli, Cash is King, LC Racing, Paul Braverman and Team Hanley's Ny Traffic. Runner-up in the Louisiana Derby (G2), Matt Winn (G2) and Haskell (G1), he finished eighth in the Derby and ninth in the Preakness.

“It's very exciting to have the owners that we have providing these horses to us. We're thankful,” Joseph said. “The horses will make good trainers and we've got some really quality horses now and we're thankful for each and every one.”

 Fountain of Youth (G2) Runner-Up Drain the Clock Cutting Back
While impressive maiden-winning stablemate Collaboarate earned the chance to stretch out for a shot at the $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa, Saffie Joseph Jr.-trained Drain the Clock isn't expected to join him.

Joseph said Sunday that Slam Dunk Racing, Madaket Stables, Wonder Stables and Michael Nentwig's Drain the Clock, himself a sharp winner of the seven-furlong Claiborne Farm Swale (G3) Jan. 30 at Gulfstream in his graded debut, would remain at shorter distances for now.

Drain the Clock set the pace in the 1 1/16-mile Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) Saturday at Gulfstream, his first attempt around two turns, and nearly pulled off the upset before getting reeled in by Holy Bull (G3) winner Greatest Honour.

“Talking to the owners briefly after the race, initially I think we're going to step back and keep him at one turn. We tried it and I think he handled the mile and a sixteenth, but I don't think we're going to try to push it,” Joseph said. “I think we have a really good horse. I feel like we have a Grade 1 horse and he's probably going to be best at one turn, so most likely we're going to stick to one turn.”

The Fountain of Youth was the first loss for Drain the Clock in a race where he finished. He broke his maiden and beat winners in an optional claiming allowance last fall at Gulfstream and Gulfstream Park West, respectively, before losing his rider on the backstretch of the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs. He returned to South Florida and opened his 3-year-old season with a win in the Jan. 3 Limehouse that set him up for the Swale triumph.

Drain the Clock ran splits of 23.66 seconds, 47.18, 1:11.51 and 1:37.45, taking a 2 ½-length lead into the stretch before Greatest Honour, trained by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey, closed stoutly on the outside to win by 1 ½ lengths. Drain the Clock, second choice in the wagering behind the winner, was two lengths clear of 18-1 long shot Papetu in third.

“He looked like a winner at the quarter pole but he got run down by a horse that has a lot of stamina and excellent ability in Shug's horse. A credit to Shug for the job he's done with that horse. We lost nothing in defeat. You like to win if you can but if any horse runs like that, you walk away thankful and happy,” Joseph said. “He's doing well. He ate pretty good last night and seemed to cool out well.”

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