Bred by France Weiner and her late husband Irwin Weiner, Simplification, who was also named the 2022 Florida-bred Champion 3-Year-Old Colt, was recognized for his victories in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. in April and in the Mucho Macho Man S. in January, both at Gulfstream. He also produced several other graded-stakes performances in 2022 including a fourth-place finish in the GI Kentucky Derby. Simplification also helped his dam, Simply Confection (Candy Ride {Arg}), take home honors as the 2022 FTBOA Broodmare of the Year.

The 2022 FTBOA Florida Breeder of the Year and Leading Owner by Florida-bred Earnings award went to Arindel, who led all breeders from the Sunshine State with $3,050,911 in Florida-bred earnings.

Khozan (Distorted Humor) was named the 2022 Florida Stallion of the Year for the third consecutive year with progeny earnings of $4,513,950.

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Forte, who won last year's G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile and G1 Hopeful S. before being honored with the Eclipse Award, has won both the GII Fountain of Youth S. and GI Curlin Florida Derby in both starts this year.

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The Todd Pletcher-trained 2022 Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male breezed for the first time since his tour-de-force 2023 debut in the GII Fountain of Youth S. Mar. 4 at Gulfstream Park. He breezed a half-mile in :50.72 under regular jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.

“I thought it was super. The horse is doing extremely well. He came out of the Fountain of Youth in great shape. He had a nice breeze this morning, just a half-mile. He finished up strongly with a good gallop-out,” Pletcher said. “He's very happy and moving well.”

Pletcher added, “He came back with really good energy. His appetite has been super. He's doing all the things the way you'd want him to be doing them. He's coming out of a big race and leading up to another big one. I couldn't be more pleased.”

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“He ran a little temperature,” McGaughey said.  “It went right down and he is doing fine but I didn't feel right running in this race.”

McGaughey said that the colt will remain on the Kentucky Derby trail and should be ready to go in another prep within a few weeks.

“I will watch him and after the weekend will try to figure out what we want to do,” McGaughey said. “I don't know where he'll run next. I haven't gotten that far. The obvious choices are the [GI Curlin] Florida Derby, the [GII] Wood Memorial, the [GI Toyota] Blue Grass.”

General Jim is coming off a one-length win in the GIII Swale S. at seven furlongs.

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1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is the kingpin colt among the sophomores who switched out of trainer Bob Baffert's barn over the past week and into the care of Baffert's former assistant from two decades ago, Tim Yakteen. The transition was necessitated by a Churchill Downs ban on Baffert trainees that prohibits them from accruing qualifying points or racing in the Derby while under Baffert's control.

Top-ranked on this list since the outset of the season, this intimidatingly speedy, sales-topping son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR) is being aimed for either the GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 1 or the GI Santa Anita Derby one week later.

Staying home at Santa Anita means being able to race out of his own stall there. But shipping hasn't adversely affected either of his on-the-road wins, and Arabian Knight showed he can absolutely devour a wet Oaklawn racetrack if that condition arises again.

That last victory was a thorough shellacking of an overmatched field in the GIII Southwest S. in Hot Springs Jan. 28, in which Arabian Knight earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure while dominating the tempo and not being throttled for maximum output.

Arabian Knight has only had one published workout since that win, a three-furlong move at Santa Anita back on Feb. 13, though there have been no recorded breezes of any variety since Feb. 23 owing to a rare winter storm.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 5-4-0-0,  $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) will have a figurative target on his back in Saturday's GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. It's his 2023 debut off a four-month layoff, and he drew post four as the 7-5 morning line favorite.

Somewhat surprisingly, this 'TDN Rising Star' by Violence didn't go off favored in any of the three Grade I victories that closed out his juvenile campaign, although he was the chalk in both his May 27 debut win at Belmont (7 3/4 lengths) and in start number two, a fourth-place try in the GII Sanford S. at Saratoga.

Yet this colt's trio of Grade I wins in the Hopeful S., Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S., and Breeders' Cup Juvenile each revealed new tactical dimensions, and Forte's knack of being able to essentially pick his own positioning before reliably firing a big shot off the far turn is a skill that a number of his competitors still haven't mastered. Watching the leggy, athletic Forte target and reel in horses without flinching from stretch fights whets the appetite for what he might be able to deliver on a two-prep path to Louisville.

But longer-term statistical trends could be stumbling blocks: as for this Saturday, be aware that favorites have lost 12 of the last 16 editions of the Fountain of Youth. Widening the lens to take in 38 years of Breeders' Cup history, only two colts (Nyquist and Street Sense) have parlayed wins in the Juvenile into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is headed for the Mar. 11 GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby for start number four.

His Nov. 6 debut at Aqueduct was a better-than-it-looks learning experience based on his fast-closing third. This colt's Dec. 17 MSW win, also at Aqueduct, rated as an eye-opener because of his unfazed attitude after brushing, bumping and running down a rival in a deep-stretch mud fight. But it was the over-the-top nature of Tapit Trice's gaudy, eight-length allowance pummeling at Gulfstream on Feb. 4 (92 Beyer) that stamped his Kentucky Derby aspirations as realistic and achievable.

This $1.3-million KEESEP son of Tapit still needs to hone his early-race skills by overcoming lackadaisical breaks from the gate. But as the distances increase and he gains experience against larger fields, those are the types of developmental concerns that seasoning can melt away like the spring thaw.

This year, the Tampa Bay Derby has been downgraded from Grade II to III. Part of that demotion had to do with the race's recent trend of well-meant favorites being no-shows while the long-shot winners went on to be low-impact factors in subsequent stakes.

Although the 4-5 choice Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) won Tampa's big race last year, the previous four Tampa Derbies were won by harder-to-figure horses at odds of 15-1, 49-1, 8-1 and 19-1.

4) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., Feb. 4. KY Derby Points: 20

As the co-fourth choice on the morning line for Saturday's Fountain of Youth S., Rocket Can isn't facing the same scrutiny or pressure as race favorite and divisional champ Forte. But this Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) will still be under the gun to prove his GIII Holy Bull S. score was no fluke, and he needs to shrug off the stigma of having relatively low speed figures compared to other top Derby hopefuls.

Rocket Can has plateaued with 82 Beyers in his last two starts on Nov. 26 and Feb. 4. But as discussed in previous editions of this list, his efforts rate considerably higher from a “how he did it” visual perspective. He gave up ground on both turns of the Holy Bull while always within three lengths of the leaders, and when he commandeered the lead off the final turn of that short-stretch configuration, Rocket Can finished focused through the lane while chased home by a tenacious stablemate.

Over the same 1 1/16-mile setup that starts close to the first turn and ends at the sixteenth pole, look for jockey Junior Alvarado to try and execute a follow-the-favorite strategy on Saturday, a tactic that should be a smooth fit for this colt's capable stalking style.

5) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock, who races with his head slung low in a style that evokes his sire still merits a strong foothold within the Top 12 despite the certainty that he'll be the last colt on this list to make his first sophomore start.

Powerful and promising at age two, this physically imposing dual sales grad ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) detonated a 104 Beyer in his two-turn debut, the GI American Pharoah S., while never being fully extended.

But in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he got hot and bothered pre-race, then had trouble settling when trying to clear an irrationally exuberant 70-1 shot through a :22.90 opening quarter. Cave Rock seized the lead a half-mile from home, but Forte had far more in the tank while Cave Rock languished too long on his left lead in the stretch.

Still, the second-place effort was commendable given those less-than-optimal circumstances, and Cave Rock looms as a front-end force when he finally hits the entries.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael L Petersen; B-DATTT Farm (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start: 2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR) was christened a 'TDN Rising Star' upon debut back on opening day at Santa Anita, overcoming multiple examples of trip adversity (some of it self-inflicted) to win first time out.

In start number two, he ran a credible second despite being tactically disadvantaged behind a one-turn-specialist stablemate Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) in the GII San Vicente S. going seven furlongs. The latter returned to just miss in last weekend's G3 Saudi Derby Cup over a stamina-stretching mile.

Additional ground along the Derby trail (next start not yet disclosed) should aid Faustin's development arc, because 10 furlongs is well within the scope of his pedigree. His damsire and sire, Hard Spun and Curlin, finished second and third, respectively, in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Half a year later, Curlin and Hard Spun ran one-two in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

7) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Mary & Chester Broman (Ky); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Hejazi, a New York-bred, $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, is among the headliners in Saturday's 11-horse GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita. He has four races of experience, but only one try around two turns, which came last October while still a maiden and attempting winners (third in the GI American Pharoah S.).

He drew post seven for the San Felipe, and coming off a 6 1/2-furlong MSW score in which he led the field through early fractions of :21.97 and :44.28, Hejazi projects to be a forward factor on the stretch-out.

This will be his second start off a freshening (and his first for trainer Tim Yakteen on a transfer from Bob Baffert), and Hejazi merits respect based on the 97 Beyer he earned and the authoritative way he swatted back two deep-stretch challengers inside the final 100 yards.

A concern, though, is that four of the horses he beat on Jan. 15 have already raced again, and the best finish among them was a third-place try.

8) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Sagamore Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee's company lines got a boost when the third- and fourth-place finishers out of his Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. tally came back to win their next starts. Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}) scored in last Saturday's GII Rebel S. at 18-1 odds and Denington (Gun Runner) popped at 8-1 in a Feb. 18 first-level allowance route at Fair Grounds.

This son of Bolt d'Oro ($200,000 KEESEP) is three-for-four lifetime, with his only loss coming when fourth in a key renewal of the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October.

He is, however, the type of colt you'd like to see more of before deciding if he's a true 10-furlong horse.

That's not going to happen under trainer Brad Cox's current two-prep sophomore plan. With the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby projected as his next race, Instant Coffee is going to have nine weeks between starts trying to make the jump from 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles, then another six weeks until the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby.

He's currently two breezes into training since his last race.

9) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One is a longer-the-better type who isn't going to head to Louisville as a Derby standout. Yet he has the staying power and pedigree to be a dangerous threat; the type of double-digit longshot who will sit far back, make one sustained run, and if the trip and pace scenarios shake out in his favor–look out.

This son of Gun Runner out of a full-sister to Eclipse Award and GI Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Untapable (Tapit) is a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred who rallied from far off the tailgate and splashed into the homestretch of the GII Rebel S. with abandon, avoiding the crowding that was going on closer to the rail but not still shying from outer-path roughhousing in upper stretch before accelerating with a separate, deep-race burst in the run to the wire (92 Beyer for second).

True, he's never won on dirt. But Red Route One's past-performance block consists of seven route races on turf and dirt, and a wet racetrack hasn't been a problem on the three occasions he's encountered slop (twice second, once fifth).

“Obviously, we're anxious for the races to go farther,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “Not positive we won't wheel him back in the Louisiana Derby, a mile and three-sixteenths. Quit messing around and get him on out there.”

10) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last Start: Won Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

This colt's 92-Beyer, 5 3/4-length, smash-and-grab score in a six-furlong Santa Anita MSW sprint was encouraging enough for the generally conservative trainer Richard Mandella to declare him a “geaux” for two-turn stakes company, and he'll start from post eight in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe S. on Saturday.

Geaux Rocket Ride's form was flattered when the runner-up from that Jan. 29 win, Sonoran (Ride on Curlin), returned Feb. 20 to break his maiden by 7 1/4 lengths as a 3-5 favorite.

This $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) retains the services of jockey Flavien Prat for this weekend's engagement.

But, like six other entrants in the San Felipe, he'll have to come off the medication Lasix as he advances into stakes territory. That many horses making the off-Lasix switch lends an accentuated a wild-card flavor to what already looms as a tough 11-horse race to handicap.

11) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start:  Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Confidence Game is a plucky, adaptable overachiever ($25,000 KEESEP) with some racing royalty in his bloodlines: his dam, former 'TDN Rising Star' Eblouissante, is a Bernardini half-sister to the mighty Zenyatta.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux said this son of Candy Ride (Arg) “sort of lost his mind in the paddock” prior to his 94-Beyer winning effort in the sloppy Rebel S. last Saturday. But jockey James Graham was able to settle down Confidence Game during his warm-up, and the colt got a sweet mid-pack trip while fifth behind two longshot speedsters and two stalking favorites who never truly fired despite no-excuse trips.

Responding to far-turn rousing, Confidence Game got third run at the wilting leaders while widest off the turn, then largely avoided inside traffic with a work-in-progress kind of stretch run that included some outward wandering late (94 Beyer).

“He's really come into his own,” Desormeaux said. “He started off pretty immature. But as the races went on [seven total, five of them routes], he has improved things mentally and physically.”

12) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: Won Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Litigate, a $370,000 KEESEP colt by Blame, will be on trainer Todd Pletcher's traveling team with an expected next start in the Louisiana Derby. He most recently scored a 1 1/4-length win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa.

Note that even though the track is listed as 'fast' on the Equibase chart, that Feb. 11 race was run in a downpour, which might be a contributing factor to Litigate's tepid 77 Beyer and the race's lethargic closing fractions.

Sent to clear the field from post 10 by Luis Saez, Litigate ably rated back to fifth on the backstretch. He uncorked a decent move between the five-sixteenths pole and the quarter pole, then had to be ridden hard through the lane to put away a 21-1 shot and a 12-1 shot, finishing through driving rain in a sluggish final sixteenth clocked in :7.05.

His two previous tries showed promise, and they could prove to be useful building blocks as this colt attempts longer races more suited to his distance-centric pedigree: sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19, Litigate stalked with purpose behind a three-way battle for the lead, patiently took the overland route through the turn, then drew away respectably. Tasked with a one-turn mile allowance at Gulfstream Jan. 8, he nailed second by a nose behind a daylight winner.

He's worth consideration in New Orleans if you think the long Fair Grounds stretch will be his friend.

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Junior Alvarado was aboard for the breeze, subbing for jockey Jose Ortiz.

“He galloped out six furlongs in 1:15.3, the seven furlongs in 1:27 and the mile in 1:40,” trainer Antonio Sano said. “Excellent. I'm so happy with my horse. He went very easy and came back well.”

Simplification is scheduled to work the next two Fridays at Gulfstream before shipping to Churchill Downs April 29.

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The first of the two to go through the ring Mar. 15 will be an Always Dreaming half-brother to GII Risen Star S. winner Epicenter (Not This Time). Consigned by Ciaran Dunne's Wavertree Stables as Hip 121, the bay is out of stakes winner and GSP Silent Candy (Candy Ride {Arg}).

The colt was purchased for just $25,000 at Keeneland September by former trainer Mike Pender, who has now shifted into a career as a bloodstock agent. After 25 years on the backside, Pender picked up his first group of three yearlings for a pinhooking partnership in 2020. One of those was GIII Pocahontas S. winner Hidden Connection (Connect), a $40,000 KEESEP buy turned $85,000 OBSOPN juvenile; and another was Reserve Currency (American Freedom), who brought the same price at KEESEP and summoned $375,000 at EASMAY.

“He was very athletic and had a two-turn pedigree,” Pender said of the colt, who is from the first crop of GI Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming. “I pulled him out multiple times and couldn't take my eyes off of him. He has enough speed to make him real dangerous from what I see watching him train at Wavertree. Physically, he is all you could want. I loved him in September and now he has developed that all-important swagger as well. He is a real stunner.”

About two months after the Keeneland September Sale, Epicenter earned his diploma with a decisive second-out score at Churchill Downs Nov. 13. He followed that with a 6 1/2-length drubbing of his rivals in the Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds Dec. 26. Kicking off his sophomore season with a second in the GIII Lecomte S. in NOLA Jan. 22, the $260,000 KEESEP buy went wire-to-wire to take the Risen Star by 2 3/4 lengths. Epicenter tops the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 64 points and is being pointed at the Mar. 26 GII Louisiana Derby.

“It was great timing,” Pender said. “I told my clients I was buying them a racehorse. This way if the horse stubs his toe or something heading into the sale, we have that back up plan. Looks like we have a big shooter in this Always Dreaming colt. The fact he is a half to Epicenter is meaningful, but if you just watch him go, he screams two-turns. Like Epicenter, he is the real deal.”

Just four hips after Epicenter's half-brother goes through the ring at OBS March, a Mendelssohn half-sister (Hip 125) to recent GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. winner Simplification (Not This Time) is scheduled to sell. They are out of SP Simply Confection (Candy Ride {Arg}), who is a daughter of MSP Ballado's Halo (Saint Ballado). That mare is also responsible for the dam of MSW & MGSP Inflexibility (Scat Daddy), MSW & GSP Halo Again (Speightstown) and GSP Fundamental (Arch).

Bred in Florida by France and Irwin Weiner, Hip 125 was purchased by consignor Niall Brennan and a partner for $95,000 at the OBS January Sale under the name Democracy Bloodstock. She RNA'd for $190,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale and was withdrawn from Fasig's October Sale and pointed to this spot.

“I liked her straight off the bat as a short yearling,” Brennan said. “She was immature, but had a lovely frame to her, nice outlook and intelligent head. She looked like she would grow into something. Mendelssohn's first-crop had been selling very well as weanlings. He was a stallion with a lot of potential.”

The horseman continued, “She had a nice, young pedigree. I had a few of the foals under the second dam, including Inflexibility, and they were all black-type. [Hip 125] was the second foal out of this mare, the first being Simplification. She's a young, stakes-place Candy Ride mare. I thought she was great value. I was partial to the family and thought she was a pretty filly that might grow into something.”

A $50,000 RNA at KEENOV, Simplification graduated at second asking sprinting at Gulfstream in October. Third in an optional claimer going the same distance a month later, he captured the Mucho Macho Man S. on New Year's Day, just 24 days before his younger sister went through the ring at OBS January. Runner-up in the GIII Holy Bull S. Feb. 5, Simplification provided his half-sibling with an even bigger update ahead of this auction, rallying to a decisive victory in last Saturday's Fountain of Youth. He is currently number three on the Derby leaderboard with 54 points, the same number held by GII Rebel S. winner Un Ojo (Laoban), who earned the number two spot with higher earnings.

“It is great timing. He is a very nice horse,” Brennan said. “He had already won the Mucho Macho Man and the update was in the catalogue. He proved he was for real when he came back and ran so well. He is a very nice 3-year-old and he made an already nice pedigree even better.”

In addition to her strong female family, Hip 125 is from the first crop of $3-million KEESEP topper Mendelssohn, winner of the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and the G2 UAE Derby on dirt. He was also second in the GI Runhappy Travers S. The son of Scat Daddy is a half to future Hall of Famer Beholder and GISW and top sire Into Mischief.

“She's done very well,” Brennan said when asked how the filly has developed in her training. “She's an average-sized filly, looks a bit like her brother. She is very smooth, very intelligent. These Mendelssohns, the ones I have anyway, are very professional, very focused. They all show the same kind of consistency and class. They are all very good movers. She acts that way, very easy, a really classy filly. She has great action on the racetrack. She moves great on the dirt. All the Mendelssohns I have, I think they will go on either surface from the way they are training.”

The OBS March Sale takes place Mar. 15-16 with each session starting at 10:30 a.m.

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There were two very obvious reasons why Mishriff was given his opportunity in the Saudi Cup. One is that we're all rather more disposed to gamble when the odds of reward are so spectacular; the other is that the race was staged in his owner's hometown.

To be fair, Mishriff had made an encouraging reconnaissance the previous year, while his subsequent deeds in Europe left no doubt of his eligibility in terms of class. So that all figures. Yet the fact is that only those incidental incentives emboldened the kind of experiment nowadays almost manically forsworn on both sides of the Atlantic.

By this stage I have doubtless worn out the record over the shocking lack of adventure lately emasculating the European challenge at the Breeders' Cup, despite the remarkable achievements of those who did gamble on dirt in years past. But Americans have become barely less prescriptive in deciding a horse's surface requirements, carved in stone after a single glance at a pedigree. Both communities, as such, need sit down a minute and consider that of Mishriff.

His sire Make Believe (GB) is a French Classic winner by a British Classic winner, out of a daughter of Arc winner Suave Dancer, himself by a French Classic winner. Mishriff's dam Contradict (GB) is out of a half-sister to two remarkable Irish stallions in Invincible Spirit (Ire) and Kodiac (GB); and if Contradict is admittedly by a Breeders' Cup Classic winner, we all know that Raven's Pass was obliged, that year, with a synthetic surface congenially akin to turf.

The next three dams, meanwhile, are by turf milers Bahri, Kris (GB) and Artaius. Actually Bahri was also sire of Sakhee, whose dam won at Royal Ascot and was by the reputed chlorophyll addict Sadler's Wells. Nonetheless Sakhee was beaten a nose by dirt monster Tiznow at the Breeders' Cup, 20 days after romping the Arc in the mud. In terms of pedigree, the grounds for running Sakhee on dirt were the same as for Mishriff: zilch.

As I'm always saying–and I'm sorry to keep mounting the same soapbox, but nobody else seems to care–what is at stake is the kind of mutual transfusion that has historically energized the breed.
Speed-carrying dirt blood was the foundation of the Coolmore revolution, which continues to percolate through the twin branches of Northern Dancer's European dynasty, via Sadler's Wells and Danzig. Yet where is the rival with enough wit to challenge the same firm's Epsom hegemony by the same formula today, with stallions who–like Northern Dancer–carried their speed two turns on dirt? Anybody remotely serious about prising Classics out of the grasp of Galileo (Ire) and sons should have the big Bluegrass farms on speed-dial. As it is, the Europeans can't even absorb the blatant lessons of recent bargain imports by an accredited turf stallion in Kitten's Joy.

But American horsemen are no less myopic. Yes, some do import European bloodstock–as yearlings, or already in training–but only to target a weaker U.S. program. Few remember how farms like Claiborne and Darby Dan created Classic dirt pedigrees with stallions imported from Europe. Today turf sires in Kentucky are treated as commercial poison, and even when Noble Mission (GB) contrived a GI Kentucky Derby runner-up from his first crop–duly reminding us all that the running style of his brother Frankel (GB) was pure dirt–the next thing you know he has been driven out of town.

Fire At Will (Declaration of War) gets his shot on dirt in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. for the same reason as Mishriff last weekend. Nothing to lose, and potentially enormous rewards. His sire, remember, was beaten a nose and a head when trying dirt for the first time on his final start at the Breeders' Cup. But Declaration Of War was obviously far too versatile for his own good, wandering four continents through his first seven years at stud. In fact, Noble Mission is now in the same barn. Someday, too late, breeders in Europe and America will wake up to the fact that the ultimate 21st Century Thoroughbred is being bred in Japan from blood they rejected.

As it happens, Fire At Will is himself a combination of those Danzig and Sadler's Wells highways to Northern Dancer: he's by a son of War Front out of a Kitten's Joy mare. Not even I can pretend that Kitten's Joy is a versatile influence, though it's interesting that his own sire El Prado (Ire) did give us one in Medaglia d'Oro. Regardless, the family tapers into outright dirt royalty, to Rough Shod through Flippers and Moccasin; and it's been seeded with corresponding quality, by Arch, Nureyev (third dam, of course, Rough Shod) and Seattle Slew.

Whether or not Fire At Will takes to dirt is immaterial. The principle can't stand or fall on a single horse. Nobody will be reading too much into that off-the-turf success in the slop last summer, and he's resurfacing from a long hibernation (curiously enough, on the same day as the dirt champ over at Oaklawn). He'll find no hiding place between the speedball Drain The Clock (Maclean's Music) and a two-turn prince in Greatest Honour (Tapit). But I simply hope he runs well enough, so soon after a finishing kick honed on grass was too much even for Charlatan, to make horsemen everywhere stop and think. Just how many other horses might be out there, you wonder, with capacities far exceeding their opportunity?

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“Everything went smooth,” said trainer Michael Maker of the Three Diamonds Farm's runner's work. “He's ready to go.”

Fire At Will broke his maiden over a sealed but sloppy main track at Saratoga in the With Anticipation S. in September, then captured the GII Pilgrim S. over the Belmont lawn the next month. He was a three-length victor of the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf in November in Keeneland, but connections are aiming toward a return to the dirt in the Fountain of Youth. It will be his first start on a fast main track.

“It's a tough task, whether he's a dirt horse or a turf horse, but he's earned the chance,” said Maker.

The Fountain of Youth is to be contested at 1 1/16 miles, a half-furlong further than Fire At Will's Breeders' Cup score but the same distance as his Pilgrim win.

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