After a hectic few months perusing this year's foal and yearling crops, we asked the buyers to share their thoughts on the young stallions with first foals and yearlings. From leading bloodstock journalist Nancy Sexton to top pinhooker John Cullinan, the pulse was taken on the ground at Tattersalls where opinions have now been formed on first-crop sires Ghaiyyath (Ire), Earthlight (Ire), Sergei Prokofiev and much more.

Dermot Farrington, agent, on Advertise (GB) & Kameko:

“If you look at the list of people who have bought yearlings and foals by Advertise, it's a long time since a young stallion has attracted the who's who of the bloodstock world, and that's exactly what he has done. Whether it be yearlings to breeze, yearlings to race or foals to pinhook, Advertise has attracted what I would call the best horse men and women in the industry. He's hugely popular among the right people and it truly is amazing. People will say I am biased given I bought the horse and my father-in-law [Martyn Meade] trained him, but I genuinely think he'll be a big success.

“Of the first crop of foals, Kameko is producing some very nice stock. I was actually very disappointed not to buy a colt on Thursday night by Kameko. I was the underbidder on him and Mick Fitzpatrick bought him. Kameko was a classy racehorse and I'd be backing him to do well from what I have seen so far.”

John Cullinan, pinhooker, on Pinatubo (Ire) and Blue Point (Ire):

“Everyone loves the new kids on the block and I'm no different. Ghaiyyath is the new exciting stallion and I was delighted to get a colt by him this week for 240,000gns. He's producing fantastic stock but sure he was the outstanding racehorse of his generation and is by a sire of sires in Dubawi (Ire). Look at Night Of Thunder and New Bay for example. Hopefully Ghaiyyath can carry on in that direction because they are a nice bunch of horses.

“I also bid strong on a Pinatubo on Thursday night but I didn't get him unfortunately. I like what I have seen from him. I don't usually buy many foals by sires who have their first runners the following season because, when you are only buying a few every year, you could leave yourself open. It's a huge risk, huge exposure. Having said that, myself and Roger [Marley] had a chat the other evening, and I hope to God that I am not putting the kiss of death on him now, but we both think Blue Point will have a big season next year. For any horse to win twice in the one week at Royal Ascot, they have to be blessed with uncommon talent. We have one very nice colt by him to breeze next year and, on the strength of what he's been doing, we bought a foal by him this week for 72,000gns, but it's not something we'd do normally.

“The market has been interesting this week and I think we could be facing a tough spell, especially in Britain, which is why we have been concentrating on the top end. The thinking there is, if we do hit a little bump next year, we will have the horses to sell to the recession-proof buyers. And, sure if all else fails, we can go out in a blaze of glory! But in all seriousness, it's been very tough at the sales because everyone has had the same idea. We looked at 136 horses, only vetted 14 of them and came home with three. I'm after leaving myself a little light on numbers but I have some high-end horses, which was the plan. I bought 11 foals last year and the ones I bought cheaply were the ones who didn't make money. The ones I pushed on and gave the few quid for, they left money behind, so I decided to spend my money this year, but on fewer horses at a higher level.”

Nancy Sexton, journalist and pinhooker on Ghaiyyath, Earthlight and King Of Change (GB):

“It's no secret that Ghaiyyath has some lovely foals: they have a look of Dubawi about them but they also have scope and the ones I've seen have been good movers. It's easy to see why they were so popular at Goffs and at Tattersalls.

“I also liked the Earthlight foals: on the whole they were good movers and straightforward. King Of Change wouldn't have many soldiers, but from the small selection over the last two weeks I thought they were good-looking and good-moving horses. He was a little underrated on the track and as a well-bred son of Farhh (GB), anything could happen.”

Eddie O'Leary, Lynn Lodge Stud on Ghaiyyath, Earthlight, Arizona, and Advertise:

“The Ghaiyyaths are gorgeous. They are big lovely-walking foals and they have plenty of quality about them. I've seen plenty of nice Earthlights and there were a few Arizonas who caught my eye as well. I actually underbid the Arizona colt who Peter Nolan bought at Goffs for €60,000. Advertise has his first runners next year and, after what I saw on my gallops at home recently, I was keen to pick up a few foals by him and I'm happy I did. I think he'll do well next year.”

Clare Manning, Boherguy Stud, on Ghaiyyath & Earthlight:

“I'm going to have to nominate two because I have been very impressed by the first foals by Ghaiyyath and Earthlight. They really seem to be stamping their stock. The Ghaiyyaths have plenty of size and are good walkers. He was a brilliant racehorse and is producing fine-bodied individuals. Earthlight is out of a New Approach (Ire) mare, which is obviously a big plus for me, and I have been a fan of what I have seen from him so far.”

Julie Woods, owner, on Ghaiyyath, Sergei Prokofiev & Without Parole (GB): 

“Ghaiyyath is putting a nice stamp on his foals and Sergei Prokofiev seems popular as well. We bought a Without Parole because we like the Frankel (GB) line and followed Cracksman (GB) last year. There's a lot to look at but those are the ones we have really concentrated on.”

Freddy Tylicki, agent, on Ghaiyyath, Sergei Prokofiev, Advertise & Blue Point:

“I have been very taken by the Ghaiyyaths and the Sergei Prokofievs. Ghaiyyath is producing very good and attractive foals so let's see if they can run. The Sergei Prokofievs are going down as well as hot biscuits and he looks like he is stamping his foals. I bought an Advertise foal and it looks as though she was a giveaway as she cost just 2,500gns. I liked him when I saw him at stud and I loved him as a racehorse. I also bought a Blue Point foal and I think they will be fast.”

Joe Foley, Ballyhane Stud, on Sands Of Mali (Fr), Mohaather (GB), Soldier's Call (GB), Ten Sovereigns (Ire) and Too Darn Hot (GB):

“I have been very pleased with the Sands Of Malis. He did well at Goffs and a nice colt sold for 27,000gns so we're very happy with that. In other news, the Mohaathers have been catching my eye. He was a lovely yearling himself, a lovely horse and a very good racehorse, so I was very interested in his foals. They have come back in his real Showcasing (GB) shape and they have that action. They look like runners to me. We bought a few Soldier's Calls last week at Goffs and again this week and I fancy him to do well in his first season next year and to become a good sire. Ten Sovereigns is another stallion whose yearlings I have liked the shape of and we bought a foal by him last week at Goffs. But that's a risky game, buying foals in the hope that the stallion clicks with its first runners.

“Next year is probably one of the most competitive years I can remember for first-season sires but, you know what, the good ones will come through. People are clever nowadays and, with all of the statistics available to everyone, they will be able to spot the good ones at the different price ranges. The likes of Too Darn Hot, who was a very good racehorse, his yearlings look very racey and appear to have plenty of Dubawi about them. I bought a few by him this week so I took a gamble there.

“And, speaking of Dubawi, Ghaiyyath has done well with his first foals. He was the highest-rated horse in the world at one point and is a very good-looking horse with a great attitude and a wonderful pedigree. Not only that, he showed good acceleration for a horse who stayed 10 furlongs. I'd like him as well. There are some very nice horses coming through the ranks which is great because we need some more good stallions. There are very good stallions coming through over the next few years and that's what makes this game so interesting.”

Liam Norris, agent and pinhooker, on Kameko:

“For me the Kameko foals are all a similar type. I like to see a stallion stamping his stock and I have seen a good few of his foals that I've liked.”

Larry Stratton, agent and pinhooker, on Sergei Prokofiev:

   “There's a real consistency to the Sergei Prokofiev foals. One after another they have been really strong; he's really stamping them. They have lovely strong tops like himself.”

Amy Lynam, agent, on Mohaather, Without Parole, Too Darn Hot, Magna Grecia (Ire) and Masar (Ire):

“Of those with first foals, I have liked the stock of Mohaather. He's stamping his stock and obviously if they take after him you'd definitely like that. I've liked some of the Without Paroles as well; I think they are good walkers with a bit of quality about them.

“From the first yearlings I liked the Too Darn Hots. They were probably a bit too expensive for me, but I liked them all the same and I am excited to see what he can do. I also bought a yearling by Magna Grecia in Doncaster and he was one of my favourites that I bought. Invincible Spirit (Ire) is a proven sire of sires, Magna Grecia was top class himself and he is very impressive to look at. I also liked Masar's yearlings and it has been great to see his foals sell well this week as well.”

Harry Dutfield, pinhooker, on Earthlight, Sergei Prokofiev, and Kameko:

“Over in Ireland, the Earthlights made the list. At the cheaper end of the scale, Sergei Prokofiev has hit the mark repeatedly, and the Kameko foals are good-bodied sorts. But if you had a small mare, Sergei Prokofiev seems to be stamping them: they are big, brawny, lengthy horses with plenty of size and scope.”

Tom Whelan, pinhooker, on Sergei Prokofiev, Mohaather & Earthlight:

“For me the Sergei Prokofiev foals were the best. I underbid one at 92,000gns. I liked him a lot and I followed one in again today who made 70,000gns. They are good, strong foals.

“I also saw some nice Mohaather foals. Some of them look very like Showcasing and the way he has gone that can't be a bad thing. The Earthlights were also very consistent.”

John Bourke, Hyde Park Stud, on Ghaiyyath, Earthlight, and Soldier's Call:

“Ghiayyath is the one everyone is raving about and the Earthlights are nice as well. I'm not a big foal buyer but I buy a lot of yearlings and mares, they are my big thing, so I'm always watching the young sires coming through. That's one of the most interesting parts of this game for me.

“I might try and buy a mare who is in foal to one of the up-and-coming stallions next week. The way I look at mares is, I'll be looking at sending them to a stallion who will have his first runners next year. I sent two mares to Havana Grey (GB) in April when it looked like he was going to do the business. People can be panicking about getting their mares in foal but I will always keep a few back to see what first-season sires are going well and I'll take a chance on the ones who are showing the right signs.

“Soldier's Call is one I'll be backing. To be honest, I've one or two at home who are being prepared for the breeze-ups and they look like rockets. There's one filly in particular there and, if she can't gallop, I'll be very surprised.”

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At the top end of the market, Kingman (GB) dominated with three foals by the Juddmonte-based stallion selling for a combined €1,540,000 and one of Europe's leading pinhookers Philipp Stauffenberg signing for the €550,000 top lot by the sire. 

Tally-Ho Stud may be best known for being sellers but they pipped Stauffenberg for the biggest spenders title by signing for 19 foals for €1,429,000. Juddmonte, Yeomanstown, BBA Ireland and Camas Park Stud were also on the front foot at Goffs. 

Away from the top end, there were interesting trends to emerge last week that could well impact how this week's December Foal Sale plays out at Tattersalls.

What first-season sires do the buyers want? Who are the emerging forces in the stallion ranks and where might the value lie at Tattersalls? We've examined all of that and more.

Stock In Mehmas And New Bay Is Booming

It's been a breakout year for Mehmas (Ire) and New Bay (GB), who have had their fees for 2023 hiked off the back of memorable campaigns for their respective progeny and, judging by how well their foals went down at Goffs, they can again be expected to play a leading role at Tattersalls.

Let's start with Mehmas, a horse who began his stud career at Tally-Ho in 2017 at a fee of €12,500 and has justified his bump to €60,000 after another memorable campaign, highlighted by Group 1-winning sprinter Minzaal (Ire).

New Bay has done something similar at Ballylinch in that he has climbed the ranks the hard way. He also entered the stallion ranks in 2017, standing for €20,000, but has had his fee for 2023 increased to €75,000 from €37,500 with Bay Bridge (GB), Bayside Boy (Ire) and Saffron Beach (Ire) doing their bit to advertise their stallion's prowess at the highest level this season.

Nine New Bays sold at Goffs for an average of €80,750, headed by colts who sold for €145,000 and €140,000, while Mehmas enjoyed a similarly productive sale with 26 foals selling for an average of €62,455. Four foals by Mehmas broke the €100,000 mark with BBA Ireland going to €160,000 to secure a colt by the stallion.

What's clear about last week's results is that Mehmas and New Bay are the emerging forces in the European stallion ranks. There are 30 foals by Mehmas and 16 New Bays at Tattersalls this week and it will be interesting to see how they perform.

Sergei To Make A Splash?

The Whitsbury Manor Stud team got to dip their toe into the market with some of the first foals by Sergei Prokofiev (Can) going under the hammer at Goffs. How that will prepare an operation who excelled itself with leading first-season sire Havana Grey is hard to know given the amount of foals due to be sold by Sergei Profkofiev at Tattersalls this week. 

The Goffs offering went down well; one colt made €52,000 while the WH Bloodstock team paid €45,000 for another. Of the six foals that sold at Goffs, they averaged at €34,167. Not bad going for a stallion who stood at £6,500 in his first season at stud. 

Indeed, Sergei Prokofiev hails from that Scat Daddy line that is proving so popular. He was clearly quite the looker, too, given he fetched $1,100,000 as a yearling before carving out a decent career without managing to win a Group 1 for Aidan O'Brien. 

There are 60 foals by Sergei Prokofiev at Tattersalls this week. They should provide a better sample size into the standing in which he is held in with the buyers.

Najd Stud Snap Up Foals

We have become accustomed to Najd Stud playing a major role at the horses-in-training sales but it was interesting to see the Saudi Arabian-based outfit sign for four foals at Goffs. Is that a sign of things to come at Tattersalls this week?

Najd Stud didn't shoot the lights out, either, at Goffs. A Ghaiyyath (Ire) colt topped the total spend of €134,500 across five foals. Interestingly, a filly by Shadwell's Commonwealth Cup winner Eqtidaar (Ire), who has his first runners next year, was among the purchases at €36,000 as was a €3,500 Belardo (Ire) colt on the final day of the sale. 

Kildangan-Based Sires Come Up Trumps

Speaking of Ghaiyyath, the Kildangan-based freshman sire enjoyed a rock-solid start at Goffs with 11 of his first foals selling for €824,000 which averages out at €74,909.

Leading pinhookers Pier House Stud bought the top two colts by the stallion for €185,000 and €145,000 respectively and few would be surprised if the offerings by the four-time Group 1 winner go down well at Tattersalls as well. 

Of the 11 foals cataloged by Ghaiyyath at Tattersalls, a filly out of a sister to New York Girl (Ire) (New Approach {Ire}) and a half-brother to Global Giant (GB) (Shamardal) stand out on paper at least.

Fellow Kildangan-based stallions Blue Point (Ire) and Earthlight (Ire) also performed well. Earthlight had 17 foals sell for €942,500 at an average of €55,441 with Tally-Ho, Lynn Lodge Stud, Peter and Ross Doyle among the significant buyers of his progeny.

Even more impressive were figures posted by Blue Point, who had 20 lots sell for €1,011,500 at an average of €56,194. Top of the pops were colts knocked down for €200,000 apiece to Camas Park Stud and Katsumi Yoshida.

Blue Point's yearlings were similarly well-received. Famous for winning the King's Stand and Diamond Jubilee S. in the same week at Royal Ascot in 2019, Blue Point will have his first two-year-olds hit the track in 2023, with yearlings by the sire averaging over €100,000 this year. 

His stats performed favourably against proven sires Dark Angel (Ire), Showcasing (GB), Kodiac (GB), Starspangledbanner (Aus) and Acclamation (GB) in terms of average for a similar number of lots through the ring at Goffs last week. It will be interesting to see if he can carry over that sort of momentum at Tattersalls. 

First-Season Sires

Next year's race to be crowned champion first-season sire is being billed as one of the most exciting renewals for a long time with Too Darn Hot (GB), Blue Point, Waldgeist (GB), Magna Grecia (Ire), Ten Sovereigns (Ire), Calyx (GB), Advertise (GB), Invincible Army (Ire), Land Force (Ire) and Soldier's Call (GB) having their first runners in 2023.

As mentioned above, Blue Point performed well at Goffs while a number of leading pinhookers got behind the progeny of a number of the first-season sires. 

Advertise was one who came out nicely on the figures from a relatively small sample size at Goffs and one would imagine that Tattersalls will provide a more accurate barometer given he has 19 foals there.

But the Goffs results read well. Six foals sold for an average of €32,167 which was more than Invincible Army [14 for €29,773], Ten Sovereigns [15 for €26,833] and Soldier's Call [14 for €26,417]. Those figures could well average out this week. Time will tell.

First Crops Of Note

Along with Ghaiyyath, Earthlight and Sergei Prokofiev, who we have already mentioned, a number of stallions had their first crop go under the hammer at Goffs. 

Some of the more interesting results were posted by Arizona (Ire), perhaps unsurprisingly given he is a son of the sire of the moment, No Nay Never, while King Of Change (GB), Mohaather (GB), Sottsass (Fr) and Without Parole (GB) caught the imagination. 

Peter Nolan paid €60,000 for an Arizona half-brother to Eldrickjones (Ire) (Cotai Glory {GB}) while the Coolmore-based freshman sire, who stands for just €5,000, averaged a respectable €20,192 for 13 foals.

Sottsass was a classier racehorse than most of his first-crop rivals and it told in the figures at Goffs with the former Arc winner posting averages comparable with Mehmas, Invincible Spirit (Ire) and Dark Angel. There were 11 foals by Sottsass at Goffs and they sold for an average of €61,100 and a top price of €180,000. 

G1 Sussex S. winner Mohaather created a good impression with five foals selling for an average of €49,250 including a top lot of €95,000 while Without Parole had four foals sell for an average of €27,000 and a high of €70,000.

King Of Change was subject to a recent transfer after being snapped up by Starfield Stud from Derrinstown and it looks like it could prove to be a decent move given how his first foals performed. 

Peter and Ross Doyle paid €50,000 for a colt by the sire who averaged a solid €24,714 for seven foals sold. That's a good return for a Group 1-winning stallion who is set to stand for just €5,000 next year.

Coolmore Can Count On Wootton Bassett And No Nay Never

Wootton Bassett (GB) and No Nay Never flew the flag for Coolmore at Goffs while demand for the progeny of Saxon Warrior (Jpn) was evidently up off the back of an excellent autumn for the first-season sire. 

Wootton Bassett was bettered only by Kingman and Galileo, who between them accounted for just four foals at Goffs, for the highest averages posted. 

The sire of brilliant G1 National S. winner Al Riffa, Wootton Bassett clearly captured the imagination last week, with seven foals selling for €1,345,000 at an average of €224,167 which earned him a top-three finish in that particular table. 

No Nay Never enjoyed an eighth-place finish in averages posted on €134,800 and, while Saxon Warrior was down on that list at €52,263, he posted a chunky aggregate with 21 foals selling for €993,000. That was the seventh-highest aggregate recorded by any stallion. 

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• Sioux Nation at 1-2
• Havana Grey (GB) at 9-4
• Saxon Warrior (Jpn) at 6-1
• Expert Eye (GB) at 10-1
• Roaring Lion at 14-1
• Harry Angel (Ire) at 14-1
• Kessaar (Ire) at 25-1
• Cracksman (GB) at 33-1
• Massaat (Ire) at 100-1
• U S Navy Flag at 100-1
• Tasleet (GB) at 100-1
• Gustav Klimt (Ire) at 100-1
• Rajasinghe (Ire) at 200-1
• Unfortunately (Ire) at 500-1
• Washington DC (Ire) at 500-1
• Lightning Spear (GB) at 500-1
• Smooth Daddy at 500-1
• James Garfield (Ire) at 500-1

“We absolutely love pricing up this market, which would be impossible to price were it not for Weatherbys' Stallion Book, Global Stallions app and particularly their Return of Mares,” said Fitzdares Head of Horseracing Sam Hockenull. “It was not hard to pick out Sioux Nation as a short-priced favourite given the huge numerical advantage he has. “We hope in the coming weeks to price up a 'total prize money' market for the first time. In turn, this will hopefully offer a much more competitive market.”

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Leaving this huge tally aside, in any other year 35 first-crop winners at a strike-rate of 40% would be more than respectable, and it is this number, and £788,531 in progeny earnings in 2021, that sees Mehmas's fellow Tally-Ho Stud resident Cotai Glory become the leading freshman in Europe. The son of Exceed And Excel's eight black-type performers were led by the G2 Prix Robert Papin winner Atomic Force (Ire), while Purciaretta (Ire) won a Listed contest in Italy and Eldrickjones (Ire) was runner-up in the G2 Coventry S.

On the prize-money front, Cotai Glory only narrowly shaded Caravaggio, who spent three years at Coolmore in Ireland before being relocated to Ashford Stud in Kentucky for the 2021 covering season. He remains there and now has some bragging rights from a first-crop Group 1 winner in the lightly-raced but unbeaten Cheveley Park S. victrix Tenebrism. The G2 Debutante S. winner and G1 Moyglare Stud S. runner-up Agartha (Ire) was another smart performer for Caravaggio, who had 24 winners in Europe overall. 

The former breeze-up graduate Ardad (Ire) was third in Europe and is the leading freshman in Britain, with his 23 winners including the dual Group 1 hero Perfect Power (Ire) and G3 Sirenia S. winner Eve Lodge (GB), as well as the G2 Coventry S. third Vintage Clarets (GB). Ardad's popularity rose accordingly at the yearling and foal sales this year which will have made up for the fact that his 2021 foal crop consisted of just 18 members. He covered a three-figure book of mares at Overbury Stud in 2021, however, and that will be repeated this covering season.

While Tally-Ho Stud can enjoy some reflected glory in having bred both Ardad and Perfect Power, greater enjoyment will doubtless be derived from the start made by another of the farm's stallions, the 2000 Guineas winner Galileo Gold (GB). He too had a Group 1 winner, from his former stable of Hugo Palmer, in Ebro River (Ire), as well as Group 3 winner and Group 1-placed Oscula (Ire) and the Listed winner System (Ire) among six stakes performers and 24 winners.

The G2 Queen Mary S. winner Quick Suzy (Ire) was the star of the first crop of Darley's Profitable (Ire), who amassed a decent haul of 28 winners, with two Listed scorers among them. 

In sixth in Europe and leading the French contingent was the regally-bred Zarak (Fr), whose 2022 book was full early on the back of his 17 winners, led by the Arqana sales race winner and G1 Criterium International third Purplepay (Fr), who subsequently sold for €2 million in December to race on in America. Zarak was also represented by the German Group 3 winner Lizard (Ger) and G1 Prix Marcel Boussac runner-up Times Square (Fr). 

A trio of Listed winners and the Group 2-placed Unconquerable (Ire) and The Acropolis (Ire) led a bunch of 25 winners for Coolmore's Churchill (Ire), while Yeomanstown Stud's El Kabeir has the champion juvenile in Italy in Group 2 winner Don Chicco (GB), as well as Listed winners Sa Filonzana (Ire) and Masekela (Ire), the latter having also been runner-up in the G2 Superlative S.

Behind him in ninth was the National Stud's Aclaim (Ire), who steadily compiled a list of 26 winners, the leading light of which was Cachet (Ire), with four stakes places including third in the G1 Fillies' Mile. 

Completing the top ten on prize-money was the Queen's son of Galileo (Ire), Recorder (GB), who stands in France under the Sumbe banner and had Listed victrix Hot Queen among his eight winners. 

Just outside the European top ten, Time Test (GB), like Zarak a son of Dubawi,  caught plenty of people's attention with his quartet of stakes winners from 11 winners in total. 

Dream Ahead's son Al Wukair (Ire) made a pleasing start in France at Haras de Bouquetot with 15 winners, while similar comments apply to his stud-mate Zelzal (Ire), by Sea The Stars (Ire), who notched 11 winners. 

Towards the end of the season there were some decent maiden winners being posted by two sons of Galileo (Ire) whose stock can be expected to progress: Ulysses (Ire) and Highland Reel (Ire), who ended the year with 16 and 12 winners respectively.

The Irish National Stud's National Defense (GB) was represented by only 14 runners, but they included five winners, with the standout being the French Listed winner and G2 Queen Mary S. runner-up Twilight Gleaming (Ire), who went on the win the GII Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint for Wesley Ward and Stonestreet Stables.

The aforementioned Zarak headed the first-season sire lists in his native France and also in Germany, where he has one of the best juveniles in the country in Lizaid, while El Kabeir's Don Chicco ensured that he topped the list in Italy. 

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The Profitable (Ire)s looked racy and they sold very well, particularly for a sire that started off at just €12,000. On paper you might expect them to need time given Profitable himself did not win a group race until he reached the age of four but putting that aside, as a bunch of physicals they looked racy and when you combine that with his sire and damsire it will be disappointing if they don't make an impact this year. Like Caravaggio, Profitable has a huge amount of soldiers to go to war for him in 2021. Whilst I didn't buy one myself, Aidan O'Ryan bought a particularly nice Profitable filly (out of Miss Azeza {GB}, now named Origintrail {Ire}). Ribchester (Ire) had some nice stock, the most expensive of which is named Ruthin (GB) with Wesley Ward and she is already on the worktab at Palm Meadows. I've seen a few nice breezers by him recently that will be selling soon so he too will make his mark.

Ardad (Ire) has some nice 2-year-olds–Pat Owens, a good judge who has recently started training in Newmarket, is particularly keen on one of his–while other horses like Aclaim (Ire), Churchill (Ire) and El Kabeir are bound to get their winners as well. Highland Reel (Ire) and National Defense (GB) might surprise a few people; it's just a pity the latter doesn't have the numbers to compete with the other stallions, because he possessed a great turn of foot.

Ultimately, however, I think the two sires that will battle it out for freshman honours are the Kildangan stablemates Ribchester and Profitable.

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Coleman said, “I guess Churchill (Ire) is the headline act of the first-season sires and I have heard some good words on his stock from Ireland. He has obviously covered a good book of mares and was well supported by Coolmore. He has covered large books of mares ever since he went to stud and, from what I hear, even this year people are giving him plenty of support.

“Also at Coomore I think Highland Reel (Ire) has a chance. He obviously wouldn't have covered anything like the book that Churchill covered. I bought one yearling by him and I liked his stock. I would expect his horses to be a little more backward though he won the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood in his 2-year-old year. I think he's still the highest-earning European racehorse of all time and in every country, on every ground, he was just a really adaptable and consistent horse. If he breeds stock that were as tough and hardy as he was then he'll have a chance.”

He continued, “Of the English-based sires I thought Time Test (GB) and Ulysses (Ire) both produced quite nice stock. Again they probably wouldn't have had the greatest books but they had nice stock. The British breeders are probably keeping more of their mares at home this year and they are two of the unproven sires in Newmarket that breeders are gravitating towards to take a bit of a chance with.

“Time Test produces a very nice-looking horse and he is himself well bred, from one of the best Juddmonte families. He's a son of Dubawi (Ire) and he was talented so I think he has a bit of a chance.

“Of the speedier horses I think Ardad (Ire) is interesting. I liked his stock, they looked sharp and I tried to buy a couple. He produced a nice type of horse and they looked like they would be fast and early. I actually underbid Ardad at the breeze-up sales. I bought Prince Of Lir (Ire) and underbid Ardad within 10 minutes of each other and they both won at Royal Ascot that year.

“It would be great for the British breeding industry if a few more of these British stallions did well because I think that at the moment, for the 'working' breeder', there's not that many proven sires in the mid-division market in the UK.

“I felt last year that Mehmas (Ire) had a very good chance to be champion first-season sire but this year it looks wide open.”

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Newsells Park Stud’s General Manager Julian Dollar said, “Nathaniel’s progeny have enjoyed another strong year with a further four group winners in 2020, led by Enable who made history this summer with a record third win in the G1 King George [VI and Queen Elizabeth S.]. With 10 group/stakes winners and performers this year and an ever-expanding list of group winners, Nathaniel offers breeders incredible value at £15,000 for this multiple Classic-producing sire.”

“We are also extremely excited to be standing Without Parole,” Gunther added. “He’s a horse that’s close to our hearts, having been foaled and raised at Newsells Park on behalf of John and Tanya Gunther. A beautifully bred son of Frankel with the looks to match, Without Parole has a pedigree rich in speed and as an out-and-out miler himself, who took his unbeaten run through an emphatic win in the St James’s Palace S. in the second-fastest time ever recorded, he should hold great appeal for breeders at just £10,000. Both the Gunthers and ourselves will be supporting Without Parole heavily with quality mares and we also hope to make a number of breeding rights available to breeders.”

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The winner of the G1 St. James’s Palace S. and second in the G1 Sussex S. in the summer of his 3-year-old year, the Niarchos Family’s Flaxman homebred added another Group 1 win in the Prix du Moulin that September prior to a fourth in the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile. At four, he displayed his affinity for Royal Ascot with a win in the G1 Queen Anne S., before another second in this year’s Sussex and a third in both the G1 Prix Jacques le Marois and another edition of the Prix Moulin. The bay bounced back with a close second two starts later in the Nov. 7 GI Breeders’ Cup Mile. His record stands at 17-5-3-3 and $1,881,584 in earnings.

“Circus Maximus is very tough and travels with a lot of speed,” said trainer Aidan O’Brien. “He’s that type of horse that can often make very good stallions. We’ll definitely be breeding to him.”

The bay is the only foal out of Duntle, a multiple group winner and dual Royal Ascot winner who ran second in the G1 Matron S. and G1 Prix Rothschild and was third in the G1 Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot S. for Flaxman. This is the extended family of Grade I winners Honor in War (Lord at War {Arg}), La Gueriere (Lord At War {Arg}), herself the dam of GI Personal Ensign S. heroine Icon Project (Empire Maker); and GI John Henry H. victor Al Mamoon (Believe It). The fourth dam, GSP Lady Winborne (Secretariat), is a half-sister to French Horse of the Year and a champion at two and three, Allez France (Sea Bird II).

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You may wonder why the best British and Irish stallions produce so many winners compared to other regions. It’s primarily due to how racing is organized in that 12% of all winners in Britain and Ireland and in America are juvenile winners, compared to only 5.8% in Australia. Moreover, there are differences to the competitiveness of stallion rosters in each region. A smaller, more select population exists in Britain and Ireland than in America and Australia, both of which have big regional markets which encourage the retirement to stud of colts with lesser credentials.

Retiring a Timeform 115-rated 2-year-old with no 3-year-old record to stud may not be the way to go on most occasions in Britain and Ireland, but with Mehmas the gamble has paid off handsomely. As a G2 July S. and G2 Richmond S. winner who’d once beaten future champion sprinter Blue Point (Ire), Mehmas was always going to find fans at stud. One aspect of his profile that favoured him was that another successful sire, Dark Angel (Ire)–who also retired to stud at the end of his juvenile season–shared the same sire/maternal grandsire combination of Acclamation and Machiavellian. And whereas Dark Angel may have been a Group 1 winner, Timeform assessed him at 113, two pounds lower than Group 2 winner Mehmas.

Their early dispatch to stud, though controversial in some quarters, has proven the correct decision. There is little doubt that an unsuccessful 3-year-old campaign by either of these colts would have ruined or at least severely dented their appeal to the type of commercial breeders they needed in order to succeed. Mehmas may have just eclipsed Iffraaj’s tally of winners, but he’d already posted more stakes winners than the Darley stallion, whose own first crop featured the G1 Jean-Luc Lagardere hero Wootton Bassett (GB), recently in the news with his transfer to Coolmore.

Certainly, Mehmas’s first runners seem to be combining precocity and class in a pleasing blend. The top four runners by Mehmas have so far achieved Timeform ratings of 118, 112p, 109 and 103, compared to the 119p, 109p, 102 and 96 of the best four by Iffraaj at the end of his first season ten years ago. Clearly, there is plenty of quality among Mehmas’s first youngsters and he has unearthed a trio of very smart 2-year-olds in G1 Middle Park S. and G2 Richmond S. winner Supremacy (Ire) (TFR 118), G2 Gimcrack hero and G1 Middle Park third Minzaal (Ire) (109), plus listed scorer and Group 3-placed Method (Ire) (112p).

Mehmas’s tally of four stakes winners is already quite impressive, so much so that only nine stallions in the past 20 years have ever finished their first year with more. Moreover, since 2000, only Fasliyev, Oasis Dream (GB), Lope de Vega (Ire) and Frankel (GB) among European first-crop sires have had more year-one juveniles rated 110 or more. That’s the sort of company Mehmas is keeping at the moment.

Many will point to Mehmas’s lower strike rate of 41% winners to runners–Iffraaj had 53%–but with such a big first book with a wide variety of mares it’s perhaps inevitable that there will be plenty of lower-grade runners among his stock. His tally of four stakes winners also needs to be seen in the context of the seven stakes winners sired by Night Of Thunder (Ire) a year earlier–the best on any sire since the pattern began.

The question now is: can he maintain this great start? Will his stock train on and sustain him through what will inevitably be leaner years, at least until the offspring of the good mares he will now inevitably attract get to the racecourse? His second crop, produced like his first at a fee of €12,500, contained a healthy number of mares, 177 in total, but there is a marked fall in quality with only nine elite mares-identified as the top 15% of the broodmare population according to my calculations–compared to 16 from 180 in his first. The same goes for his third crop, produced at a fee of €10,000, which contained five elite mares from a total of 83. Mehmas’s mare numbers rebounded to 113 in 2020 but contained only four elite mares. Put together, his second, third and fourth crops contain just two more elite mares than his first.

When all is said and done though, there is something about the way the good Mehmas colts perform that encourages you to believe that they will indeed make good 3-year-olds. It would be no surprise to see the Clive Cox-trained Supremacy develop into one of Europe’s best 3-year-old sprinters next year. He’ll need to go some way to match the best by Iffraaj, the 129-rated Ribchester (Ire).

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