The New York-bred fell just a neck short of Nest (Curlin) two back in last December's GII Demoiselle S. over track and trip, the only blemish in her four career starts.

“We knew she had talent early on, and turning from two to three, you could see the right change on her,” trainer Jorge Abreu said of Venti Valentine's development. “She got stronger, she was more focused and she showed that in her last race.”

Nostalgic (Medaglia d'Oro), fourth at second asking in the Demoiselle, failed to take to turf as the 4-1 favorite in her sophomore unveiling at Gulfstream Feb. 5. The Godolphin homebred rebounded in style, however, with a visually impressive optional claiming tally back on dirt in Hallandale Mar. 3.

'TDN Rising Star' Classy Edition (Classic Empire), a winner of her first three versus fellow New York-breds, including a pair of stakes, held her own in her first try against open company finishing second behind the talented Kathleen O. (Upstart) in the one-turn mile GII Davona Dale S. Mar. 5.

The Gazelle offers 100-40-20-10 Kentucky Oaks qualifying points to the top-four finishers.

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Having spent five years in training, even at 16, Get Stormy's second career was only just entering its key phase. For not until the next year or two will his best stock start reaching the track, his books having soared in both quality and quantity after an early stakes barrage led, from his second crop, by triple Grade I winner Got Stormy. No less than her name implies, she was inlaid with the watertight genetic teak of her sire, matching his own record of graded stakes success through four consecutive campaigns.

It's all there in the McLean family slogan, “We raise runners.” In a business where so many horses are raised to do no more than stand and stroll, with breeders heading for the hills the moment the gavel comes down, that fairly rudimentary aspiration has an almost quixotic quality. But a trademark combination of blood and guts governs nearly the whole Crestwood roster: Jack Milton (War Front), for instance, won a Grade I at five and, much like Get Stormy himself with Moccasin (Nantallah), brings into play a Claiborne matriarch in Bourtai (Stimulus); while Heart To Heart (English Channel) won graded stakes annually from three to seven.

Get Stormy's nickname on the farm was Clyde, because he had so much brawn and timber that he evoked a Clydesdale. I've always had a mad theory (actually supported by the stats) that his reputation as a turf sire is self-fulfilling, and that his physical stamp, toughness, and speed-carrying style were ideally tailored for dirt. Be that as it may, despite nudging an initial fee of $5,000 no farther than $7,500, Get Stormy already leaves us half a dozen graded stakes winners. (That's as many as Maclean's Music, for instance, from the same intake.) And his two millionaires to date were respectively out of a $4,500 Malabar Gold mare, and a daughter of Brahms unsold at $18,000 on her only visit to the ring.

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Two days after Get Stormy's loss, on just the other side of Georgetown Road, the venerable heart of Go For Gin also gave out at the Kentucky Horse Park, his home since retiring from stud in 2011. At 31, he had been the oldest surviving Derby winner—and long enjoyed precisely the kind of dignified, pampered retirement everyone was someday anticipating, a few years down the line, for Get Stormy.

But while life's disasters seldom arrive with any rhyme or reason, perhaps we can glimpse some timely succor for Crestwood. Because any clients with mares booked to Get Stormy should certainly consider another stallion on the roster, also from the Storm Cat line, who only last weekend reiterated the striking promise he has shown from minimal opportunity to date.

Firing Line has mustered no more than 39 starters from his first couple of crops but 24 of them have already won and, having burdened him this winter with a place on a TDN “Value Podium”, I was delighted to see Venti Valentine confirm her candidature for the GI Kentucky Oaks with a seven-length romp in the Busher S. last Saturday. Other credits to Firing Line include Nakatomi's success in the Bowman's Mill S. at Keeneland last fall, after placing in the GII Saratoga Special S.; plus the recent Fair Grounds romp of his $210,000 2-year-old Oscarette.

Besides beating all bar a Triple Crown winner in the Derby, don't forget that Firing Line was only denied a juvenile Grade I by a head and broke the track record in winning the GIII Sunland Park Derby by 14 lengths. True to Crestwood principles, moreover, his talent was rooted in a mile-deep pedigree: his dam is a Grade I-placed sibling to the mothers of two Grade I-winning milers, their line extending to matriarchs Kamar (Key to the Mint) and Square Angel (Quadrangle).

Whether or not Firing Line can fill the breach, Get Stormy will undoubtedly be making posthumous additions to his legacy. After all, Giant's Causeway himself—perhaps the greatest conduit of all, for this sire-line—is not quite done yet, even though he bequeathed just three foals from a handful of final coverings before his death in the spring of 2018. Incredibly, two of them now line up together for the GII Langholm South Tampa Bay Derby with a total of 85 gate points on the line for the first Saturday in May.

Curiously, both were born on 22 February 2019. Classic Causeway is being brought along beautifully at Palm Meadows by Brian Lynch, with a foundation of longer breezes for his comeback before dialing up the speed since; while Giant Game has himself been working the house down after some running repairs on a displaced palate.

Still more remarkably, it was only last week that the final Giant's Causeway of all—born eight days after the other pair—made a winning debut for Shadwell in Dubai, charging clear by four and a half lengths. So the hope that the Iron Horse might “rust in peace”, which may sound irreverent but intends a wholly affectionate tribute to his ferrous qualities, is proving happily misplaced. This is not the dull shimmer of iron, but a last glint of genetic gold.

Perhaps Giant's Causeway is looking down in vexation after his son Protonico just had a Derby winner effaced from the record. Depending how things go at Tampa Bay, however, maybe this time he won't have merely a vicarious presence at Churchill, admirably though he is being represented by Not This Time.

Mind you, even giant steps must always be made one at a time. The card also features the resumption, at long last, of the colt who looked like the pick of his crop this time last year. Let's hope the patience of everyone involved with Greatest Honour (Tapit) finds due reward in his maturity.

Ironically, his own sire's frustrating sophomore career gave a quite misleading impression about the toughness he has tended to impart to his stock; and someday, no doubt, Greatest Honour will validly recycle one of the best pedigrees you will ever see.

Certainly he won't be one of those stallions, so corrosive to the breed, that teeter to market on a wafer-thin page and a whizzbang speedfigure or two. The Thoroughbred's vocation is not for the flimsy of limb, nor the faint of heart. So while Crestwood may have lost their flagship, they have not lost their bearings. They are navigating by the stars, by the fixed points of soundness and pedigree, and we would all do well to follow in their wake.

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The previous evening, Recio had called Dan Zanatta, founding/managing partner of Final Furlong Racing with Vince Roth, and announced: “Tomorrow morning, I'm buying you a broodmare.”

Zanatta was not enthused. Final Furlong was evolving nicely, syndicating New York-bred fillies. Though they did have one broodmare, apart from pinhooking weanlings, the focus was primarily on racing in the Empire State program.

“No! Whatever you do, please don't buy us another mare!”

“Don't worry about it,” Recio replied. “She'll only cost about 10 grand, you're going to love her, it's a no-brainer.”

Then the agent revealed her identity.

“Oh!” Zanatta said. “Right. Okay. Yeah, tomorrow you're going to buy us a mare!”

And that was because, deep in the November Sale, Recio had found the dam of a filly who was then shaping up as Final Furlong's most promising talent yet. The edge they had was a certainty that Espresso Shot (Mission Impazible) would contribute more to the page of Glory Gold (Medaglia d'Oro) than was apparent, shortly before the auction, when she finished last in the GII JPMorgan Chase Jessamine S. at Keeneland.

“That race was a mistake,” Zanatta says. “We had Espresso Shot pegged as a two-turn, turf horse–and we had read her all wrong. Based on her early breezes, she'd run first time out in a turf sprint and was actually entered in a turf route for her second start at Belmont. It was only when that got rained off, and she won so impressively, that we started thinking maybe she was a dirt horse after all.

“So after the Jessamine, now that she had changed our minds for us, we were looking to put her back into some New York-bred stake races. We thought she'd be pretty competitive, and that if she was going to earn black type, then her dam was a no-brainer as a Medaglia d'Oro mare at that kind of money.”

The upshot, three and a half years on, is that Final Furlong have meanwhile fielded two winners of the Busher Invitational S., both out of the same mare, while having bred one of them.

Espresso Shot herself quickly vindicated the team's judgement, the Busher only one of four stakes type wins in the course of a $516,625 career that prompted the Spendthrift team to give $300,000 for her at Fasig-Tipton last November. Even in her own right, then, she secured impressive dividends on the $69,000 she had cost as a yearling in the New York catalog at Saratoga.

But that has turned out to be not even half the story. When Recio turned up Glory Gold, she was being offered in foal to the young Crestwood sire Firing Line. If anything, Zanatta considered that a bonus.

“I felt Firing Line was a little underappreciated,” he says. “After all, he was second to American Pharoah in the Derby. And it also really hit a chord with me that the mare had been purchased by several groups before us, to support their own stallions. That made me think the mare would hit one day.”

But while Final Furlong generally only breeds to sell, the Firing Line filly delivered by Glory Gold on Valentine's Day would have to be offered in the volatile yearling market looming in the middle of a pandemic. And since she was shaping up so nicely, it was decided to keep her for the racing division.

As a result, Final Furlong could consecutively involve two bands of brothers in the project. The mare herself had been shared with Maspeth Stable, duly listed as co-breeder of the filly then syndicated between Final Furlong and Parkland Thoroughbreds.

“I live in Garden City, 10 minutes from Belmont, and Maspeth Stable is a group of fellows from the same neighborhood,” Zanatta explains. “They're pretty much all retired now, but they all grew up within a few blocks of each other in Queens, and stayed close their whole lives. They're golfing buddies with a small private stable, and they'll take a leg nearly every time we buy a yearling to race. They partnered with us on Espresso Shot, so when I called about the mare, they jumped at that opportunity too.”

As for Parkland Thoroughbreds, the closeness of the relationship can be judged from the fact that Zanatta is engaged to Tracy Weston, whose father Steve is a principal of the stable.

Glory Gold's Firing Line filly, meanwhile named Venti Valentine, received the usual education with Brandon and Ali Rice in Ocala before joining Jorge Abreu at the track.

“And everyone, from the grooms to the riders, to the trainers on the farm, all the way to Jorge, has said from day one that Venti Valentine was night-and-day better than Espresso Shot,” Zanatta discloses. “So we always thought we had something special. And whereas with Espresso Shot we were kind of learning on the fly, I feel we've been able to be a lot smarter this time. We've had another three or four years watching those stakes races cycle through, year in, year out, and we've planned out her career really very diligently–even from before she'd raced. We knew what we had, and we knew what the hope was.”

Her first big objective was duly identified as the Maid of the Mist S.

“Even if she was still a maiden, even if she was still unraced, the goal was to be in that race at Belmont in October,” Zanatta says. “So we were waiting for a race to come up that made sense, with that in mind. We ended up getting stuck with a six-furlong sprint, but luckily she was good enough to win by a nose despite getting left at the gate and a really wide trip. That made us really excited.”

They had already decided that Venti Valentine was not just classier than Espresso Shot but also more rugged, and that a second turn would be within her compass. After she ran Nest (Curlin) to a neck in the GII Demoiselle S., they gave her a winter in Florida before trying to scale a three-rung ladder via the Busher and the GII Gazelle S. to the GI Kentucky Oaks itself.

That agenda went from pencil to ink at Aqueduct last weekend, following a spectacular seven-length rout that leaves Venti Valentine with 54 Oaks points in the bank already.

Whatever happens from here, she has already conferred an unusual distinction on her dam, as her second daughter to win the same stakes. Even before that, her updates had helped Glory Gold's weanling filly by Omaha Beach achieve $220,000 at the Keeneland November Sale from Sewanne Investments.

Being empty this year, meanwhile, Glory Gold has had an early cover by Munnings–for which purpose she is currently with Mike Heitzmann and his team at Stone Bridge Farm, though her customary base is Dr. Scott Ahlschwede's River Valley Stock Farm near Saratoga. (Albeit the foaling of Venti Valentine herself is a credit to Chad DeGregory's Schuylerville Thoroughbreds.)

Zanatta does not pretend that the mare's genetic prowess is blatantly obvious in her physique.

“To be honest, she's quite a plain mare,” he admits. “She does have some size, but if you wanted to be critical you might say she's a little upright, in the shoulder; she may not have the strongest top line in the world; she may not have a ton of leg. But I'd say she puts a lot more leg onto her foals than she has herself, a lot more shoulder, and a lot more length. She's definitely moving up her foals.”
In that belief, Final Furlong had already doubled down on the family by the private purchase of one of Glory Gold's earlier daughters, the 8-year-old, four-time winner Goldtown (Speightstown).

And while Medaglia d'Oro plainly requires no introduction, actually this family has some cosmopolitan flavors deeper down. Glory Gold's mother is by Lord Gayle, whose sire Sir Gaylord gave us so many good broodmare sires: Sir Ivor, Habitat, Drone. She was bred by Edward P. Evans from an Argentinian Classic runner-up, extending a line that traces to Epsom Oaks winner Brulette (Fr) (Bruleur {Fr}). That pre-war matriarch unites the pedigrees of such European luminaries as All Along (Fr) (Targowice), Vaguely Noble (Ire) (Vienna {GB}) and Diminuendo (Diesis {GB}). A more proximate credit, moreover, is Glory Gold's half-brother Mocha Express (Java Gold), a 16-time winner who broke the Louisiana Downs track record in a graded stakes over nine furlongs.

If there has been an element of serendipity to Venti Valentine, her emergence is perfectly consistent with Final Furlong's dynamic progress. Zanatta, still only 35, was a college intern at Merrill Lynch when he met Roth, who introduced him to the fractional share action he was enjoying through the likes of Sovereign Stable and Dream Team Stable. After Zanatta graduated, they created Final Furlong.

“I'd say we've been doing it in earnest for around five or six years,” Zanatta explains. “Our niche in the market is pretty focused. We buy New York fillies. We think the economics make sense, for us and our partners: we can afford some of the best fillies in that division every year. And for four straight years now we've had a New York-bred 2-year-old get black type. We also had horses nominated for New York-bred divisional honors in each of those years. Typically we have eight to 12 horses at the track, so I think that's a real testament to the model.”

With horses syndicated in the $75,000-$150,000 range, and partners generally staking 3-5%, Venti Valentine is another horse offering to evangelize a sport historically perceived as a preserve of the wealthy.

“I would say we cover the whole gamut,” Zanatta says. “We have people who are able to afford $10,000 or $15,000 every year, investing in each crop. But we also have people with a budget of $3,000 every other year. And very often it's the ones at the nearest entry point that are most passionate.”

Return business is so strong that access instead tends to be limited by demand. With Venti Valentine herself, for instance, all bar one of the Espresso Shot partners went straight back in. Needless to say, calls are now coming in about buying into their adventure, and some calculations will doubtless have to be made before the Gazelle. In bringing so many people together already, however, this filly is first and foremost an apt memorial to her dam's purchaser, whose loss last September at just 46 devastated so many in the community.

“Mike treated his clients like friends and family,” Zanatta says. “He was a big part of our whole operation, in every aspect: mares, yearlings, pinhooks. But more than anything, as everyone knows, Mike loved to party. So we became good friends not just with Mike, but with all his staff, with his whole family. So it was a huge loss to this giant circle of people he built around himself. We miss his daily calls, and we miss his friendship.”

But Zanatta stresses how the same standards of excellence are maintained across the Final Furlong team, from the Rices in Ocala to the trainer for whom Venti Valentine could become his breakout horse.

“I think we gave Jorge the fourth horse he ever had,” Zanatta recalls. “We had a filly coming off a layoff and, as we normally race in New York, we were interviewing trainers to take her at Gulfstream for the winter. Most of them, we hung up and I never heard from them again. But Jorge was so hungry that he called me every single week, after our initial conversation–inquiring about the filly, sharing his opinion on all the videos he'd looked up, calling Brandon and Ali about how she was coming along. That's how interested he was, and that's how he got our business. So we've been involved together from the ground up, and it's been wildly successful.”

Sure enough, Final Furlong enjoyed its best year yet in 2021, with 10 wins at 29% and an average of $17,000 per start. Zanatta's first commitment remains as a senior vice-president at T.D. Bank, but it's heartening that someone with that background considers the New York Thoroughbred a viable investment vehicle–even before the advent of a filly that could send the operation to the next level.

“It's been a long story in the making, from the day Mike rang about this mare,” Zanatta says. “But so far all the planning has come out quite nicely, and she's definitely exceeding our expectations. Remember that after Espresso Shot, we're talking about a group of friends that have been going to the races together and rooting for their horses for four or five years now. And then going out to celebrate every win, all the time becoming more comfortable about bringing friends and family to the racetrack. There's a lot of people having a lot of fun.”

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4-3-1-0, $366,250. *1/2 to Espresso Shot (Mission Impazible),
MSW, $516,625.
2–Shotgun Hottie, 120, f, 3, Gun Runner–Re Entry, by Malibu
Moon. ($45,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR). O-Omar Aldabbagh & Jeff
Ganje; B-Vincent Colbert (KY); T-William E. Morey. $50,000.
3–Magic Circle, 120, f, 3, Kantharos–Magic Humor, by Distorted
Humor. ($50,000 Ylg '20 KEEJAN; $110,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR).
O-J.W. Singer LLC; B-Manitou Farm, LLC (KY); T-Rudy R.
Rodriguez. $30,000.
Margins: 7, 3/4, 3 3/4. Odds: 5.30, 22.90, 4.80.
Also Ran: Radio Days, Sterling Silver. Scratched: Morning Matcha.

Venti Valentine stormed to an authoritative victory in the Busher S. at Aqueduct Saturday. The chestnut filly, sent off at 5-1, tracked the pace early, but was shuffled back in traffic down the backstretch. She ranged up three wide into the final bend and collared pacesetting Magic Circle in upper stretch before storming clear.
“I knew the pace wasn't going to be that fast,” said winning rider Manny Franco. “So I wanted to come out running. I saw Dylan [Davis aboard Radio Days] went with Kendrick [Carmouche aboard Magic Circle] and I was able to go around them, and after that I was comfortable where I was. I was in the middle in the stretch, so I was worried about somebody coming from the outside, but I didn't see anyone. She's a nice filly. She's improving every time she runs.”

Venti Valentine opened her career with a narrow victory over state-bred foes at Belmont last September and added a victory in the Oct. 30 Maid of the Mist S. before suffering the first loss of her career when a neck short of Nest (Curlin) when second in the Dec. 4 GII Demoiselle S.

“I was a little concerned about her because we missed two breezes with her,” admitted winning trainer Jorge Abreu. “She got sick on me after we breezed her the first time. She spiked a temperate of 102 and I didn't breeze her. She really came into the race with four breezes.

Abreu continued, “I knew this filly was going to run a good race. I'm not going to lie, I didn't know she was going to win that easy. She ran a really good race. She's been a classy horse since Day One. She's been showing that she has a lot of determination and a lot of talent. She showed it today.”

Venti Valentine is one of two stakes winners for Firing Line, who has also been represented by Bowman's Mill S. winner and GII Saratoga Special third-place finisher Nakatomi.

Glory Gold, who was purchased by Final Furlong Racing for $13,000 while carrying the winner at the 2018 Keeneland Noveber sale, produced a filly by Omaha Beach last year. The filly sold for $220,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Fall Mixed Sale. The mare was bred back to Authentic. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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Here's just one example of how ruthless the market is. I won't name the stallion, because he doesn't deserve the ignominy: I have long thought him exactly the type we should be embracing, amply satisfying the criteria of pedigree, performance and physique. But anyone who can be bothered to do a couple of minutes' research will soon figure it out. All I'll say is that since a brilliant sales debut, amply vindicating his status as one of the most expensive freshmen, he has produced three Grade I winners from three crops: the same as American Pharoah and one more than the acknowledged breakout of their class, Constitution. In 2021, he was down to 29 mares.

Perhaps he can still renew momentum as he merits. In principle, however, his treatment shows how this marketplace can menace a stallion with commercial extinction virtually overnight. Sure, as we've previously acknowledged in this series, it's fair enough to reach some tentative early conclusions about a stallion if he can't make the most of the huge opportunity that breeders, in their dread of exposure on the racetrack itself, will give to new sires. But we should at least allow their first couple of crops time to mature before making any such judgement. As it is, we tend to anoint just one or two immediate achievers in each intake, and dump the rest more or less on the spot. The commercial highwire tapers to a thread very quickly.

And the whole process, of course, becomes self-fulfilling. You might still get lucky, might still come up with a champion from a handful of mares, but this is a numbers game and the odds obviously steepen with the loss of volume. Little wonder so many stallions at this stage tend to disappear into overseas or regional programs.

At the other end of the scale, the chosen few tend to be very few indeed. With one or two marginal exceptions lower down, of this year's leading second-crop sires only Nyquist and Not This Time have managed to move up their opening fees; and among the preceding group, only Constitution, Liam's Map and Daredevil. The latter's history is a cautionary one, of course, the market having exceptionally repented of his banishment abroad.

So how do we identify value? Many stallions we might consider unfairly neglected could only be recommended to end-users, who might like to breed a runner for a cheap fee, as their sales trajectory is pointing to the door. The few who retain commercial credibility, meanwhile, are generally charged at a corresponding rate. Constitution, for instance, has made the grade in utterly convincing fashion, but he's no longer very accessible as a result. With even more than the usual diffidence, then, here are one or two subjective discoveries of residual value across these two groups.

Bubbling under: Okay, so most of us can't even think about paying $55,000 to cover a mare. But value is relative, and those who can afford to play at this level will be grateful for Darley's immediate retraction of Nyquist's fee hike to $75,000 last year (from $40,000). Because even though he had to wait until the other day for his first graded stakes winner since, when Slow Down Andy advertised his Derby credentials in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity, Nyquist has been extremely consistent in producing horses of elite caliber.

While he has so far managed to get no more than 125 of his 197 named foals onto the track, he now has no fewer than 22 stakes performers, 14 placed in graded company and six at Grade I level. He hasn't converted that presence to winners as efficiently as Not This Time–a horse we have esteemed from the start, and likely to do better yet with the improvement in his book quality–but there's no doubt that Nyquist has secured commercial viability, with his third crop of yearlings averaging $158,442; and his 2-year-olds $342,043, third among all sires in 2021.

No young stallion is more obviously equipped to get you a runner–literally–than Upstart, who has put 118 of 149 named foals onto the racetrack already, a dozen of them placed at stakes level. He was multiple Grade I-placed at two, three and four, so expect his stock to keep thriving. And while his third crop of yearlings were processed modestly enough, pinhookers will surely have noticed his fantastic yields at the 2-year-old sales: $113,250 this spring, after clocking $107,791 with his first crop. Stay on board, definitely, at $10,000 with Airdrie.

Firing Line | Crestwood

Bronze: FIRING LINE (Line of David–Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold)
$5,000 Crestwood

Now here's an intriguing animal. You have to go some way down the second-crop table to find him, but that's no less than you would expect of a stallion with just 38 starters to date. But not only have 22 of them won; two members of Firing Line's second crop have placed in significant Grade II races.

The homebred Venti Valentine was runner-up in the Demoiselle S., having won a maiden and then a Listed race on her first two starts, while $25,000 yearling Nakatomi has also won in stakes company since finished third in the Saratoga Special S. Plenty of Firing Line's rivals, launched with industrial books, could do with that kind of footprint–not to mention a $210,000 2-year-old like Oscarette, who recently won her maiden at Churchill.

Firing Line missed a juvenile Grade I by a nose, won the GIII Sunland Park Derby by 14 lengths (track record) and was beaten only by a Triple Crown winner on the first Saturday in May. He derailed in the Preakness, failed to reward perseverance with a single disappointing start at four, and was doubtless further held back by a commercially unfamiliar sire and damsire. But he was actually working with a serious genetic package: out of a Grade I-placed half-sister to the dams of two Grade I-winning milers from a line tracing to matriarchs Kamar and Square Angel.

Firing Line is in exemplary hands, but has obviously only mustered very small books so far. Breeders of sufficient imagination and adventure will surely want to explore the way he has seized such limited opportunities at this budget fee.

Silver: TONALIST (Tapit–Settling Mist, by Pleasant Colony)
$10,000 Lane's End 

It has been uphill nearly all the way for this fellow, whose fee has come down yet again, but I have admired him throughout and he has had another solid year, maintaining black-type action at essentially the same ratio as Liam's Map. Few would dispute that his lauded studmate has earned his fee, which is four times higher, not least with his useful habit of hitting the bull's-eye with his best runners. It was typical of the understated style of Tonalist, in contrast, that after Country Grammer gave him a deserved Grade I breakthrough in the Hollywood Gold Cup, he promptly disappeared and has only just returned to the worktab.

Tonalist's 11 graded stakes performers through three crops represent 4.33% of named foals, almost exactly in step with Liam's Map (a dozen at a 4.17%). There are plenty of others in this intake, charging far more than Tonalist, who can't even nudge two percent.

Tonalist's books have been up and down but he does have one of 122 to keep him in the game with his 2022 yearlings, and their breeders can take heart from a median of $35,000 for the preceding crop. That's not at all bad for a sire standing at this kind of money, at this challenging stage of his career. But no bones about it, the real appeal of Tonalist is that he is shaping up as a sire who can outpunch his fee on the racetrack. Remember he reached his own peak at four and he has still only had one crop reach that stage of maturity, including his first Grade I winner.

Tonalist has always looked a quarry of old-school virtue, extending the same Toll Booth-Missy Baba line as Havre de Grace (Saint Liam) and author of 11 triple-digit Beyers in a $3.6-million career. Here was a horse that never stopped trying and breeders wanting to tap into Tapit, at an affordable fee, should take a similar approach.

Gold: KARAKONTIE (Jpn) (Bernstein–Sun Is Up (Jpn), by Sunday Silence)
$10,000 Gainesway

Have Antony Beck and his Gainesway team pulled off what has lately come to seem nearly impossible, and found a viable niche for a young turf stallion in Kentucky?

Karakontie has only been credited with 143 named foals to date but he has mustered seven black-type winners, four in graded stakes including Princess Grace, winner of two Grade IIs, two Grade IIIs and last month placed in her debut at the elite level. With his cosmopolitan pedigree, moreover, Karakontie has pushed the boundaries in terms of racing surface, too. Another Grade II winner, None Above the Law, has scored on turf, dirt and synthetics, while Sole Volante put himself on the Derby trail in the Florida preps last year.

Their sire has meanwhile maintained a useful sale ring capacity to hit one out of the park. He sold a $310,000 colt at Keeneland September, to follow on from yearlings that raised $500,000 and $220,000 at the same auction the previous year. And he has also consolidated quietly after suffering the customary slide from a three-figure debut book to just 43 mares in his third season. He has since covered 69, 88 and 76 mares, which may not look spectacular but suggests that people noticed his early achievements–like two first-crop yearlings, $6,000 apiece, making the gate for the G1 2,000 Guineas and GI Kentucky Derby–and gives him a legitimate foothold in a notoriously hostile environment even to the most eligible of turf stallions.

And that is just what he is, remember, having made his own stellar contributions to one of the most illustrious families in the breed today–his third dam is Miesque herself, so this is the Kingmambo clan–as a Group 1 winner at two and elite miling sophomore (French Classic/Breeders' Cup winner, 110 Beyer). This is a conduit of pure class, every way you cut it, and he has shown that he will take such chances as he's given.

Having this year started just nine juveniles (four winners so far, one stakes-placed) from that small third book, he has now got over the biggest bump in his road. And I'd be interested in odds about him siring a Grade I winner before the foals he breeds this coming spring go under the hammer. Overall this is a horse that really does offer hope that he can overcome the self-destructive prejudices of commercial breeding in Kentucky.

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The Breeders' Cup Challenge Series is an international series of 84 stakes races whose winners receive automatic starting positions and fees paid into a corresponding race of the Breeders' Cup World Championships, which will be held at Del Mar racetrack in Del Mar, California on Nov. 5-6.

As part of the benefits of the Challenge Series, Breeders' Cup will pay the entry fees for the Norfolk Stakes winner to start in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, which will be run at 5 furlongs at Del Mar. Breeders' Cup will also provide a travel allowance of US$40,000 for all starters based outside of North America to compete in the World Championships. The Challenge winner must be nominated to the Breeders' Cup program by the Championships' pre-entry deadline of October 25 to receive the rewards.

The Norfolk Stakes is the third of four Breeders' Cup Challenge Series “Win and You're In” races to be conducted during the Royal Ascot meeting. The race will be televised live on NBCSN and TVG.

Andrew Farm, For the People Racing Stable, and Windmill Manor Farm's Lucci, a Kentucky-bred son of Not this Time, won a 5-furlong maiden special weight by 3 lengths over the Widener turf course at Belmont Park on May 9 under jockey John Velazquez, who has the mount again for the Norfolk.

Qatar Racing, Marc Detampel and David Howden's chestnut Kentucky-bred gelding Nakatomi, by Firing Line, broke his maiden by 2 ¼ lengths over a sloppy track in a 4 ½-furlong race at Keeneland on April 14.

“At home, we have been working Lucci and Nakatomi together,” said Ward, who has 11 victories at Royal Ascot coming into the 2021 meeting. “Nakatomi was coming out on top, but then they had a workout in Newmarket on the Limekilns and Lucci turned the tables. He just bounced straight through to the front and would not give up the lead.”

Last year, the Ward-trained Golden Pal finished second by a neck in the Norfolk Stakes before going on to capture the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint at Keeneland. Ward saddled Norfolk winners No Nay Never (2006) and Shang Shang Shang (2018).

Trainer Aidan O'Brien plans to start a son of No Nay Never in the Norfolk with Cadamosto (IRE), owned by Derrick Smith, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Westerberg. Cadamosto broke his maiden on April 10, winning the 5-furlong Irish Stallion Farms EBF maiden by 3 ½ lengths.

O'Brien has saddled three Norfolk Stakes winners in Johannesburg (2001), Waterloo Bridge (IRE) (2015), and Sioux Nation (2017).

Amo Racing Limited and Peter Waney's Go Bears Go (IRE) has a maiden victory over the Ascot course. Trained by David Loughnane, Go Bears Go, a son of Kodi Bear (IRE), won a 5-furlong Novice stakes at May 8 by 1 ½ lengths.

Another winner first time out is Isa Salman Al Khalifa's Instinctive Move (GB). A bay son of Showcasing (GB) out of Peach Melba (GB) by Dream Ahead, Instinctive Move earned a 2 ¼-length victory in a 5-furlong EFB maiden race at Bath on May 12.

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UPSTART (Flatter–Party Silks, by Touch Gold) was cleverly named and I think him a very plausible type, likely to rise pretty quickly through the ranks. Certainly there were more than enough “nouveaux riches” among his first juveniles–only Not This Time exceeded his 19 winners (from 54 starters)–for him to be pegged at $10,000 by Airdrie. His principal earner was Reinvestment Risk, who twice chased home speedball Jackie’s Warrior (Maclean’s Music) in Grade Is after romping on debut at Saratoga, but a measure of what may be coming down the tracks was the 12-length debut success of Manor House at Laurel just before Christmas.

Remember Upstart himself was multiple Grade I-placed at two, three and four, so expect him to keep consolidating from an opening book of 146 and in the process to ride out a dip in numbers since to 86 and then just 38. Very auspiciously, his first yearlings (whose $63,608 average exceeded six times his fee) prompted renewed traffic last spring to 90 mares. And actually his second crop maintained value and demand far better than most, 41 of 47 selling for another very fertile yield, relatively speaking, at $45,159. In the meantime he had also excelled in a challenging 2-year-old market, his $104,400 average giving him virtual parity with a far more expensive pair in Nyquist and Frosted.

There’s no mistaking professional enthusiasm for Upstart’s stock, physically. But the key is that the speed shown by his earlier types is just a foundation; they’re bred and built to stretch, too. I can’t imagine that Flatter has had another juvenile clock a triple-digit Beyer, and there’s a really wholesome depth and balance to his pedigree.

His dam, a half-sister to a Grade II winner, is by Touch Gold–who combines distaff legends Deputy Minister and Buckpasser. This just looks so good opposite the Secretariat-Buckpasser combination behind Weekend Surprise, mother of Flatter’s sire A.P. Indy.

Speightster | PM Photos

One at the same fee who did even better in terms of holding the value of his second crop was SPEIGHTSTER (Speightstown–Dance Swiftly, by Danzig), no mean achievement given the sheer volume he had generated at WinStar.

Having opened up with a $63,680 dividend, virtually identical with Upstart, for 71 yearlings sold from no fewer than 97 offered in his first crop, Speightster managed $59,153 for 43 of 58 offered this time round. That was sufficient to secure fifth in the averages, and represents a quite remarkable vote of confidence after a solid 15 winners from 63 starters. A couple of those scored at black-type level, though perhaps nothing Speightster has done so far quite equalled the splash of his $1.1 million son at OBS in the summer.

His profile contrasts sharply with that of Upstart, having blitzed his first three (sophomore maiden/allowance/GIII Dwyer) before derailing on only his fourth start. That may or may not have been the tip of an iceberg, but the pedigree could hardly have been more auspicious. What a frisson, nowadays, just to see a dam by Danzig–never mind one who is sister to Dance Smartly and half-sister to Smart Strike. This is obviously one of the great Canadian dynasties, while a physical resemblance to his farm’s venerable patriarch can only aid Speightster’s cause in contesting the succession. He has relentless numbers behind him, too, having opened with books of 174, 150, 124 and 152, so one way or another there’s a lot of belief out there.

Air Force Blue | Coolmore

His buoyancy offers a curious contrast with another who prizes Danzig in the second generation. The first juveniles of AIR FORCE BLUE (War Front–Chatham, by Maria’s Mon) performed to a very similar level–in fact more winners from fewer runners (17 from 46), albeit just couldn’t crack a stakes win–but who suffered quite a slide in the value of his second crop of yearlings: his 34 sales (of 50) this time round realizing $46,145, down from the $98,230 (albeit for only 44 sold of 73 into the ring) on his sales debut.

One obvious difference is that Ashford started him at $25,000, but he has taken repeated trims and is now down to $10,000. Another is that Air Force Blue failed to go on after a sensational juvenile career, so we’ll now be looking for him to draw on his pedigree to keep his stock progressing with maturity. That’s certainly possible: his second dam is full-sister to Flanders (Seeking the Gold), a champion herself and dam of another in Surfside (Seattle Slew), while copper-bottomed influences seed his entire family tree. But you suspect the biggest hesitation has been a reputation made on turf, such a culpable prejudice in the commercial market.

In fact nine of his 17 winners scored on dirt, and this horse deserves a fresh chance at such a friendly fee. He was a genuinely top-class juvenile for Ballydoyle and it looks a really positive sign that the conveyor belt picked up again last spring when opening books of 153, 106 and 90 were followed by one of 135.

Exaggerator | Sarah Andrew

Nobody threw numbers at the track in the same volume as EXAGGERATOR (Curlin–Dawn Raid, by Vindication), so 14 winners from as many as 69 starters has to go down as pretty tepid. As many as five, however, managed a stakes podium. Having launched at WinStar off $30,000, he housed 63 of 103 yearlings in his first crop for $85,746 but it proved tough going for his 76 into the ring this time, 56 processed at just $25,982. He has taken a third consecutive cut, to $15,000, but will maintain the numbers after a fourth book of 104, having opened with 162, 163 and 129.

If this is the kind of industrial process that makes some of us uncomfortable, then Exaggerator did at least demonstrate some old-school wares in banking $3.6 million through 15 starts in 16 months, actually bookending his career in the same races as Nyquist. The pair also exchanged verdicts in the Derby and Preakness, one of three Grade I prizes won by an admirable racehorse of good Canadian family. You’d expect Exaggerator’s stock to keep thriving, then, as and when finding their stride.

The same farm launched TOURIST (Tiznow–Unbridled Melody, by Unbridled’s Song) at $12,500 but has had to make repeated cuts, now to $5,000, after failing to find any commercial traction with his first two crops: the first realized $27,996 for 41 sales (of 58 offered) and this time round he was down to $14,533 for 16 of 23. With his books dwindling–134, 102, 70 and 60–he needs his stock to stick to the program, having himself improved relentlessly through four campaigns until ultimately shocking Tepin (Bernstein) in the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile in a race-record 1:31.71. He laid a feasible base with 13 winners from 43 starters, and the market’s distaste for turf meant that he would always be a longer-term project.

Flintshire | Louise Reinagel

Speaking of grass, you can only despair that a horse as accomplished as FLINTSHIRE (GB) (Dansili {GB}–Dance Routine {GB}, by Sadler’s Wells) should struggle for patronage in Kentucky. Hill ‘n’ Dale at Xalapa now offers him at $10,000, half his opening fee, after his fourth book sank to just 38. Nobody could be surprised, given his own template, that he mustered only half a dozen winners from his first 36 juveniles. But the fact is that anyone far-sighted enough to support him now will be able to ride the wave as his strong early support from an ownership group including Juddmonte plays out (opened with 121, 89 and 69) in his maturing stock.

It’s tiresome to hear people talk so reverently about expanding turf opportunities, or the importance of soundness, when they don’t seem to respect even this nugget from the Juddmonte program: by one of the best-bred stallions in Europe out of a Classic-placed mare, he became its richest-ever graduate as a five-time Grade/Group I winner of $9.5 million (also dual Arc runner-up) whose turn of foot was measured at :44.56 for his closing half-mile in the GI Manhattan. His first crop of yearlings had fared reasonably well, clearing as many as 45 of 52 at $46,686, but 14 of 25 this time round scraped together a yield of $19,552. But you reap what you sow and if this industry can only make fast, precocious dirt horses pay, it will someday learn to regret it.

Mshawish | Taylor Made

Turf is only one of the strings to the bow of MSHAWISH (Medaglia d’Oro–Thunder Bayou, by Thunder Gulch), fourth of 19 in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club before being imported to win Grade Is, on both surfaces, at five and six. He has taken another cut at Taylor Made, now down to $7,500 from an opening $20,000, despite mustering a solid 13 winners from 42 starters.

That reflects the usual dwindling books (just 40 mares last spring, down from 117, 73 and 68) and a dip by his second crop of yearlings to an average $16,515, for 14 of 19 sold, down from $39,338 for 42 sales from 56 first time round. But he remains a very wholesome option with his seven consecutive triple-digit Beyers and average earnings of $100,000 per start through 24 races. His versatility is not just down to his sire, with a dam inbred 3×3 to Storm Bird; while his granddam is a half-sister to the mother of champion Halfbridled (Unbridled). As a longer play, still every chance.

The Albaugh Family team, which brought us Not This Time, offers a value alternative by the same sire in BRODY’S CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway–Sweet Breanna, by Sahm) at Spendthrift. He made quite an impression with his first juveniles: only half a dozen winners (from 29 starters) but they were good ones: two won at stakes level and four made the podium in graded stakes, notably GIII Iroquois S. winner Sittin On Go and GI Starlet S. runner-up Kalypso, who has since won the GII Santa Ynez S. on the third day of her sophomore career.

Like Not This Time, he extends a regal bottom line: his fourth dam, indeed, is by Dr. Fager out of a Bold Ruler half-sister to Secretariat’s dam Somethingroyal. His second dam was Grade I-placed and Brody’s Cause himself won Grade I races at two and three and, while he didn’t last the course, had established himself among the best of his generation and looks a bet to nothing now that he is down to $5,000 from an opening $12,500. He does have some weight of numbers, too, with initial books of 101 and 110 before dipping to 63 and 49. After a promising debut at the sales (33 sold of 51 yearlings at $50,166), he was another to struggle with his second crop (27 sold of 34 at $25,596) but he is definitely, definitely still in the game–and a viable sanctuary for those priced out of Not This Time.

Hit It a Bomb | Spendthrift

On the same farm, HIT IT A BOMB (War Front–Liscanna {Ire}, by Sadler’s Wells) has given himself a squeak at the same fee–not just with GII Best Pal winner Weston among his handful of winners, but also with a startling $330,000 colt at Fasig-Tipton in September. That boosted his second-crop average to $47,916 for a dozen sold of 15, but even a $23,500 median was solid after 15 in his first crop averaged $30,153 (median $13,000).

These are hardly the industrial numbers familiar on this farm but actually he rallied to 47 mares last spring from a third book of just 20, after opening with 48 and 49. It’s all chlorophyll, obviously, but the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner is brother to another juvenile Group 1 scorer from a classy family.

Another down to the bottom tier at Spendthrift is CINCO CHARLIE (Indian Charlie–Ten Halos, by Marquetry), though he managed no fewer than 14 winners from just 31 starters, including one at stakes level. He also made quite a stir with a $200,000 filly at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Old Sale, albeit seven second-crop yearlings (from 10 into the ring) realized just $6,600 down from $20,944 (for 19 of 26) first time round. Cinco Charlie did match his precocity (GIII Bashford Manor S. second time out) with hardiness, racking up seven black-type wins in 18 starts, so don’t rule out farther progress; while his second dam is by none other than Halo.

We know to expect interesting stallions at Crestwood and TEXAS RED (Afleet Alex–Ramatuelle {Chi}, by Jeune Homme), rather wonderfully, has earned a hike in fee to $10,000 from $7,500 after pulling GII Sorrento S. winner My Girl Red out of his hat. She was among eight scorers from just 19 starters.

Texas Red will have to ride out a couple of quieter years but opening books of 81 and 67 give scope for consolidation and he was, after all, a brilliant runner. His 104 Beyer romping at the Breeders’ Cup was backed up in an interrupted sophomore campaign, beating Frosted in the GII Jim Dandy besides running a top-class sprinter in Lord Nelson (Pulpit) to a neck over seven furlongs. A classy South American family also makes him a very accommodating outcross.

Firing Line | Crestwood

Studmate FIRING LINE (Line of David–Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) works from a narrow base but had four winners from his 13 starters. He had sold 20 of 21 yearlings in his first crop, including a colt and filly that each made six figures, while one of his daughters soared to $210,000 at OBS in June. If things were quieter for his yearlings this time round, Firing Line retains plenty of interest on performance, denied a Grade I at two only by a nose and the Derby itself only by a Triple Crown winner; and also on pedigree, his dam a Grade I-placed sibling to the mothers of two Grade I-winning milers, their line extending to matriarchs Kamar (Key to the Mint) and Square Angel (Quadrangle).

Another to give striking encouragement from a small base is TAMARKUZ (Speightstown–Without You Babe, by Lemon Drop Kid) at Shadwell. From just 14 runners, he had five winners including GIII Bob Hope S. winner Red Flag and, though lacking numbers (third book was highest at 57), might merit a roll of the dice at $7,500 from an opening $12,500.

Having bowed out beating the next two winners of the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the GI Dirt Mile, Tamarkuz is out of a half-sister to two GI Belmont S. runners-up who has also produced a Group 1 miler in Without Parole (GB) (Frankel {GB}). You have to love a second dam by Storm Bird opposite his son Storm Cat as Speightstown’s damsire, and the maternal line tapers to some resonant names.

Wins from two to six suggest that his stock will keep flying the flag with maturity; and he also showed versatility in terms of surface. Though his first yearlings excelled, moving on 18 of 20 yearlings at $68,222, a handful of his second crop made no money to speak of. But one of only four hips at the 2-year-old sales made $160,000, and Tamarkuz should definitely interest anyone out there who might want to breed an actual racehorse for a small fee.

Beating Tamarkuz for the GII Kelso H. in 1:32.9 is the poster achievement for ANCHOR DOWN (Tapit–Successful Outlook, by Orientate), now $5,000 from an opening $10,000 at Gainesway. Eight winners from 18 runners was a very good start, given his small books, and he’s a half-brother to GI Test S. winner Sweet Lulu (Mr. Greeley). His sale yields are pretty standard for this level, but it should be noted that his clearance rate for both crops of yearlings were extremely high and he also went down well at the 2-year-old sales, with a $270,000 colt and $200,000 filly. Competition is obviously tough among heirs to the farm’s champion but less so at this level.

There are a handful of others in this intake whose numbers are too precarious to repay much dredging. But the likes of BIG BLUE KITTEN (Kitten’s Joy–Spent Gold, by Unaccounted For) and PRODUCER (GB) (Dutch Art {GB}–River Saint, by Irish River {Fr}) at Calumet, or V. E. DAY (English Channel–California Sunset, by Deputy Minister) at Buck Pond Farm, were always going to be longer-term projects and so remain entitled to repay perseverance.

And we should highlight a conspicuous achievement apiece by three who share the same, great damsire: $2,500 cover OPTIMIZER (English Channel–Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy) at Calumet, for pulling a $190,000 filly out of his hat at Keeneland in September; IRONICUS (Distorted Humor–Meghan’s Joy, by A.P. Indy) for coming up with an unbeaten stakes winner from his small footprint from Claiborne at $5,000; and PROTONICO (Giant’s Causeway–Alpha Spirit, by A.P. Indy), at the same fee, for a potentially game-changing start to 2021.

A rootless start to his stud career can hardly have helped his cause. Yet his three winners from eight starters include Medina Spirit, a $1,000 yearling who closed to within a length of the Derby favorite in the GIII Sham S. Protonico’s second dam is Chilean Horse of the Year and Grade I winner Wild Spirit (Chi) (Hussonet), and a half-length miss in the GI Clark H. left him cents short of millionaire status. Medina Spirit is the kind of flagship that would be trumpeted from the rooftops by farms who throw 200 mares at rookie stallions, so to come up with this dude from an opening book of 34 entitles Castleton Lyons to hope that he could yet claw his way from the back lanes to the highway.

That’s the kind of frayed highwire all these horses are walking now. And while many will lose their footing, the great thing is that some of them are suddenly going to break into a run.

CHRIS McGRATH’S VALUE PODIUM
Gold: Frosted ($25,000, Darley)
   A champion at the right distance, out of a Deputy Minister mare, and no less likely to succeed now than when he was $50,000.
Silver: Upstart ($10,000, Airdrie)
   His record and pedigree guarantee that a fine start by his juveniles is only the beginning.
Bronze: Speightster ($10,000, WinStar)
   A lot of people seem adamant that he’s about to take off.

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The bay filly dueled for the lead throughout the five-furlong race, and wore down her challenger in the stretch to prevail by a length under jockey Kayla Pizarro. Fire On Command stopped the clock in 1:00.40 over a fast main track for trainer Shelley Brown, who co-owns the filly with Steve Holburn.

Tuesday's race was the fourth career start for Fire On Command. She debuted in stakes company, finishing second in the Debutante Stakes at Assiniboia, and her previous start before breaking her maiden was another runner-up effort in the Osiris Stakes.

Bred in Kentucky by Bill Frothinger, Fire on Command is out of the winning Purim mare Pursteena.

Firing Line, an 8-year-old Line of David horse, stands at Crestwood Farm in Lexington, Ky., for an advertised fee of $5,000.

The horse won two of eight starts during his on-track career for earnings of $976,000. His biggest victory came in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby, but his highest-profile effort is arguably his runner-up finish to eventual Triple Crown winner American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby. He also finished second in the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity and the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

Firing Line is out of the Grade 1-placed Hold for Gold mare Sister Girl Blues. His extended family includes Kentucky Oaks winner Seaside Attraction, Canadian champion Key to the Moon, and Grade 1 winners Bowies Hero, Sharp Azteca, and Gorgeous.

Read more at BloodHorse.

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