Participants in the challenge submit selections on two specified races held each week at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Each contestant will be given a $500 bankroll provided by Horseshoe Indianapolis from which participants can make win, place, show, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers. At the end of the five weeks, all remaining bankrolls, plus winnings from the contestants will go to Grayson.

“Since its inception three years ago, the Grayson Grass Challenge has been a highlight for Horseshoe Indianapolis by attracting engagement in our races and drawing attention to the crucial work Grayson does,” said Eric Halstrom, vice president and general manager of Racing for Horseshoe Indianapolis. “We are proud to sponsor this contest again and raise money for research that helps all horses.”

The field for the Grayson Grass Challenge will consist of the following handicappers: Brian Arrigoni, paddock analyst, Horseshoe Indianapolis; Ed DeRosa, vice president, Content & Product Development, Horse Racing Nation; Scott Ehlers, handicapper, Daily Racing Form; Nick Luck, international racing broadcaster; Rachel McLaughlin, racing analyst and production manager, Horseshoe Indianapolis; Ellis Starr, national racing analyst for Equibase; Jenna Otten, Caesars Entertainment Racing analyst; and Daniel Tordjman, manager, Partnerships & Sponsorships, America's Best Racing.

Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation is traditionally the nation's leading source of private funding for equine medical research that benefits all breeds of horses. Since 1940, the foundation has provided more than $40 million to fund more than 426 projects at 45 universities in North America and overseas. Additional information about the foundation is available at grayson-jockeyclub.org.

The post Grayson Grass Challenge Returns to Horseshoe Indianapolis Aug. 1 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Leading the field in accomplishments is Mo Donegal, last seen two months ago when victorious in the G2 Remsen Stakes. Simplification is another stakes winner, having captured the Mucho Macho Man Stakes easily by four lengths on New Year's Day. Tiz the Bomb finished fast from 12th to get second when last seen in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and won his only previous dirt route by a whopping 14 lengths. Cajun's Magic returns from more than four months on the bench following a win in the FTBOA Florida Sire Dr. Fager Stakes then runner-up finishes in two other stakes races restricted to horses bred in Florida. Giant Game finished third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile on the same day Tiz the Bomb ran in the Juvenile Turf and appears to fit with these, as does G2 Kentucky Jockey Club third place finisher White Abarrio. Then there's a pair of recent impressive maiden winners in Spin Wheel and Galt, the former having rallied from last of 12 to win by a nose and the latter having drawn off easily by four lengths when last seen. Eloquist rounds out the field. He finished a well-beaten fifth in the Remsen and then last of six in an allowance race last month at Gulfstream Park.

Main Win Contenders:

Although Galt just earned his first win in his most recent start, the third of his career, he will be my top pick, and a strong one at that, in this year's Holy Bull Stakes. There are many reasons to think this son of Medaglia d'Oro can win, the first of which is that he is trained by Bill Mott, who has an uncanny ability to know when his recently turned 3-year-olds are the right caliber to compete in Road to the Derby stakes races. When taking blinkers off and running in a dirt route for the first time on Dec. 26, Galt ran tremendously better than he had in his two prior starts. Drawing the same rail position he gets for the Holy Bull, Galt saved ground then came around a pair of runners to rally into a very slow pace in the stretch before drawing off decisively.

Admittedly, the 84 Equibase® Speed Figure isn't nearly as fast as the 93 figure likely favorite Mo Donegal earned last December winning the Remsen Stakes, but it was a big improvement off his previous two races. As he's making his second start following 2 1/2 months off, Galt is going to move up considerably off the effort. Back to Mott's record 3-year-olds early in the year coming off maiden wins and running in stakes races, the Hall-of-Fame trainer saddled Tacitus to win the 2019 Tampa Bay Derby off a maiden win, saddled Modernist to win the 2020 Risen Star Stakes off a maiden win, saddled Candy Man Rocket to win the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes off a maiden win, and saddled Hofburg to a runner-up finish in the 2018 Florida Derby.

Another reason I expect Galt to run very well in a graded stakes race is he is a full brother to two-time Champion Songbird, winner of $4.6 million and nine consecutive graded stakes around two turns in her three year old campaign. As the reason for the big turnaround in form on Dec. 26 is easily identifiable (blinkers off) and as he won without Lasix so racing without the medication is not an issue here, I expect Galt to post the mild upset and throw his name in the ring as a strong contender on the Road to the Derby, staring in the Holy Bull Stakes.

However, in order to win, Galt is going to have to run down Simplification, who enters the race off a wire-to-wire win in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Year's Day with a field high 98 figure. Two races before that, Simplification won a six furlong sprint by a whopping 16 and three-quarter lengths with a 99 figure. Javier Castellano rode the colt to his last win and will be in the saddle again in the Holy Bull. I have no concern about the fact that Simplification is trying two-turns for the first time as (per Race Lens) relatively new sire Not This Time has had six of 18 of his sons or daughters win two-turn races to date, including recent Lecomte Stakes runner-up Epicenter, who had won the Gun Runner Stakes prior to that. As such, Simplification has a big chance to get out on an easy lead and get very brave just as he did last month in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, and no matter how successful Galt might be in closing into a slow pace as he was in his victory at the end of December, it may be too tall of an order in this situation.

Although most of the others have credentials to be competitive, with the exception of Eloquist, who is overmatched, they are all giving away some physical edge to Galt and Simplification. For example, Mo Donegal has been away from the races since Dec. 4, and a Race Lens query reveals trainer Todd Pletcher possesses a four for 30 record with 3-year-olds in dirt route stakes over the last five years coming back from such a layoff. The same can be said for Tiz the Bomb, who needed a sprint prep race last spring before winning a route.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Cajun's Magic (94), Giant Game (90), Eloquist (74), Mo Donegal (93), Spin Wheel (86), Tiz the Bomb (109 on turf) and White Abarrio (94).

Win Contenders, with an equal probability to win at about 33 percent (2 to 1)
Galt
Simplification

Holy Bull Stakes – Grade 3
Race 11 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, February 5 – Post Time 5:10 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
Three Year Olds
Purse: $250,000

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Seven others entered and none are slouches, though few are as accomplished as the top pair. Sir Winston has won six of 19 career starts including the G1 Belmont Stakes in 2019 and he most recently won the G3 Valedictory Stakes last month. Chess Chief won the G2 New Orleans Classic Stakes last March at the distance of the Pegasus World Cup and also enters the race off a win, in the Tenacious Stakes near the end of the year. Title Ready won the G3 Louisiana Stakes a little over a year ago and has only raced three times since then, most recently when sixth in the Tinsel Stakes in mid-December. Endorsed was a fast closing second in the G3 Mr. Prospector Stakes last month at Gulfstream and is approaching the half-million mark in career earnings, but his last victory was in May of 2020. Empty Tomb finished second in the Queens County Stakes in his most recent race but has never won a stakes race. Similarly, Commandeer won his final two races of 2021 but this will be his first try in a stakes race in his 11th career start. Stilleto Boy rounds out the field, with a two-for-12 record including a win in the Iowa Derby last July.

Analysis:

Considering both Knicks Go and Life Is Good have earned each and every one of their 15 career wins (combined) when leading from the start, the first question to ask ourselves is whether this is a case of the irresistible force versus the immovable object. One potential scenario is that both horses hook up from the start and go so fast in the first portions of the race they are out of gas by the time the field hits the home stretch, with the race won in an upset by one of the other seven. Certainly after about an eighth of a mile has been run we will know if that is the case.

I believe that will not be the case, because Knicks Go is faster than Life Is Good when push comes to shove, and the fact Knicks Go gets the rail whereas Life Is Good will break from the four post. Those factors should give Knicks Go the edge. Whether Life Is Good can relax in second position in the early stages then pass Knicks Go late is a question to be answered as the race is being run. My belief is that will not happen.

Additionally, since Empty Tomb comes into the race off the two best races of his career, having led through the opening half-mile in both, that leads to more early pressure on Life Is Good. Since not leading in the early stages is foreign to Life Is Good, he can be passed late by one of a couple of horses who will be far back in the early stages.

Contenders to win:

In terms of total speed, as measured by  Equibase Speed Figures, Knicks Go has an advantage in that department as well, with a 117 figure in last year's Pegasus World Cup following a rest after winning the 2020 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (won by Life Is Good last year). Following the Pegasus, Knicks Go earned a 119 figure winning the Cornhusker Handicap (at the distance of the Pegasus), a 118 figure winning the Whitney Stakes (at the distance of the Pegasus), and a 119 figure winning the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Although Life Is Good equaled that 119 figure in his Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile win, he has never run this mile and one-eighth trip whereas Knicks Go has won four of five starts at the distance. Life is Good's other wins last year consisted of 115 figures in the San Felipe Stakes and when beaten a nose in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes last summer. Additionally, the second and third place finishers (Ginobili and Restrainedvengence) beaten by Life Is Good in the Mile aren't up to the same standards as the next two behind Knicks Go (Medina Spirit and Essential Quality) in the Classic. Therefore Knicks Go appears to be the one to beat by far in this years' Pegasus World Cup Invitational, and as stated earlier I am taking the stand Life Is Good can be beaten for second as well.

The horse with the best “counter-energy” profile appears to be Endorsed, and it is not totally improbable he could post the upset if Knicks Go does not win. Although his 10 starts last year were all in one-turn races, and although he did not win one of them, Endorsed ran very well in his two most recent starts, earning 104 and 99 figures respectively, especially his last race when he missed winning the Mr. Prospector Stakes by a half-length when rallying from last of seven in the early stages. Earlier in his career, Endorsed was successful in two-turn races, such as when winning at Gulfstream Park in January 2020 then finishing second in the Alydar Stakes at Belmont that spring at the distance of the Pegasus. With very strong morning workouts at Gulfstream Park leading to this race and with a late running style benefited by a likely exceedingly fast early pace, Endorsed could get into the top two for the 11th time in his 23rd career start on dirt.

Another horse with potential to lag back early and get into second, with a very slight chance to win, is Chess Chief. This hard-knocking 6-year-old has earned over $800,000 in his career and enters the race off a win last month in the Tenacious Stakes at Fair Grounds with a 106 figure. That equaled the 106 figure earned when rallying from last of seven to win the New Orleans Classic Stakes last March, which was the biggest win of his career. Now that he's back in winning form, another “A” effort is certainly not out of the question.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best  Equibase Speed Figures, is Commandeer (97), Empty Tomb (113), Sir Winston (107), Stilleto Boy (108) and Title Ready (102).

Win Contender:
Knicks Go

Contenders for the exacta:
Endorsed
Chess Chief

Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes – Grade 1
Race 12 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, January 29 – Post Time 5:34 PM E.T.
One and One Eighth Miles
Four Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $3 Million

The post Equibase Analysis: Endorsed, Chess Chief Candidates To Fill Out Pegasus Exacta Behind Knicks Go appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Leading the Lecomte field is Epicenter, winner of the Gun Runner Stakes on Dec. 26, a newly anointed Road to the Derby race in which he earned 10 points, which could be significant later in the season. Pappacap is notable not because of his two runner-up efforts last fall but because those efforts came against unbeaten and untested Corniche in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes and in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Unified Report is unbeaten in three races but gets a test on two levels here as his wins in the Louisiana Legacy Stakes and Louisiana Juvenile Stakes were against Louisiana-breds and were sprint races; he will be tackling two-turns for the first time in the Lecomte. Trafalgar is an up-and-coming horse who has won two in a row including a race at the distance of the Lecomte at Fair Grounds. Cyberknife also won his most recent start at this distance and over the track, but it was a maiden race so he is stepping way up in class.

Presidential was impressive when winning by seven and three-quarter lengths in his second career start, but it was nearly five months ago so he could be a bit short of ready for this caliber of field. Blue Kentucky finished third in the Sugar Bowl Stakes near the end of December and he too is trying two turns for the first time. Surfer Dude finished third behind Epicenter in the Gun Runner Stakes after leading for the first six furlongs so will be trying to improve, while Call Me Midnight was last seen finishing seventh of 11 in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes near the end of November.

Analysis:

Epicenter improved markedly last November in his second career start when stretching out to a mile (around one turn) for the first time and controlling the tempo from start to finish to beat nine other horses rather easily by 3 1/2 lengths. Moving way up in class from the maiden ranks to run in the inaugural Gun Runner Stakes, and in his first try around two-turns, Epicenter improved again to a career-best 98 Equibase Speed Figure while cruising to a 6 1/2-length win in “ridden out” fashion. Those two figures offer this colt a “double advantage” over the other eight entrants, as the lower of the two is higher than the higher of the last two figures of any of the other horses. Historically these types of horses have a high probability to win. Considering the win was at Fair Grounds and at the distance of the Lecomte and Epicenter is making only his fourth career start and second around two-turns, this colt is the one to beat in the Lecomte.

Trafalgar shows a similar pattern to Epicenter, except he hasn't run in a stakes race yet. Trafalgar finished second in his debut last summer at the same seven furlong distance that Epicenter finished sixth in his debut. In his second career start, also in a one-turn mile last fall, Trafalgar improved markedly, rallying from ninth of 10 to draw off late and earn a career-best figure, in this case an 88. Now this is where the two colts' paths diverge. Trafalgar took two months off and ran in an allowance race at Fair Grounds on Dec. 2, instead of a stakes race as Epicenter did. Although only winning by a head, and although the figure was lower at 82 then in his previous race, Trafalgar showed a lot of mental toughness in victory which may benefit him in the Lecomte. This is because after stalking in second and taking the lead to draw away in the stretch by 1 1/2 lengths, Trafalgar was challenged in the final yards but held his ground to emerge victorious by a head. Making his second start off the layoff, second over the Fair Grounds surface and second at this distance, Trafalgar draws one position inside Epicenter in the gate, and if in the final yards these two colts are neck-and-neck, Trafalgar may have the mental talent to post the mild upset and win.

Pappacap began his career last spring and summer in sensational fashion, breaking his maiden easily by almost three lengths then winning the Best Pal Stake by nearly five lengths. After a mediocre fourth place finish in the Del Mar Futurity last summer, trainer Mark Casse did not give up on Pappacap and entered him in a two-turn race for the first time in the American Pharoah Stakes. In that race he ran into Corniche, who had just galloped in his maiden win and was the prohibitive favorite. Even with Corniche rolling all alone on the front end, Pappacap stayed as close as he could and held second at 13 to 1 odds. Five weeks later in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, once again Pappacap faced Corniche and while that one rolled wire-to-wire on top as the heavy favorite, Pappacap finished second of 11 in a fine effort, earning a career-best 95 figure in the process. It might be a tougher task to run as well off nearly three months away from the races as compared to Epicenter and Trafalgar, but if Pappacap is fit to run as well as he did in his last race off workouts alone he should be a strong factor in this year's Lecomte Stakes.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Blue Kentucky (94 in sprints), Call Me Midnight (89), Cyberknife (91), Presidential (79), Surfer Dude (92 sprinting) and Unified Report (90 sprinting).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Epicenter
Trafalgar
Pappacap

Lecomte Stakes
Race 14 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, January 22, 2022 – Post Time 7:20 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $200,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Epicenter The One To Beat In Lecomte appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Snapper Sinclair leads the field in career earnings at $1.8 million. He has run poorly in his last two races but one was his first ever try on an all-weather surface and the other was in the G1 Breeders' Cup Mile. Two races prior to that Snapper Sinclair won the TVG Stakes on the grass at Kentucky Downs. Rated R Superstar, who returns from four months off, is another who has had a fine career to date, earning $1.1 million, with his most recent win coming in the Governor's Cup Stakes in August.

Mucho enters the Fifth Season Stakes in superb form with six straight in-the-money finishes including a win in the Challedon Stakes last summer. However, Mucho is running in a two-turn race for the very first time after 29 races around one turn. Necker Island is another horse stretching out to two turns. He won the Bet On Sunshine Stakes in November as one of five wins in his career.

Thomas Shelby really likes to win races, with 10 victories in 24 career races. His most recent effort was a second place finish in the Tinsel Stakes at Oaklawn last month. Silver Prospector is approaching the $1 million mark in career earnings. After winning the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in the winter of 2020, he has won just one of eight races. Atoka rounds out the field, entering the race off a runner-up effort in an allowance race over the track from which he was moved up to first after the winner was disqualified.

Top Contenders

Thomas Shelby draws the rail for this mile trip and that means jockey David Cohen will have the ability to put him on the lead, which has resulted in three wins in his last four starts, or settle him just off the pace, which has resulted in another three wins before that. Thomas Shelby joined the barn of trainer Robertino Diodoro in November of 2020 and after finishing fourth, third and seventh in his initial three starts for the barn, has turned into an “alpha” horse, winning seven of 10. Last October Thomas Shelby ran the best race of his career winning a classified allowance race with a personal-best 112 Equibase Speed Figure. He won again in November, then after two months off led until deep stretch before coming up three-quarters of a length short in the Tinsel Stakes. That race was at Oaklawn and was run at a mile and one-eighth, with Thomas Shelby leading at the point this mile race ends so repeating that effort could be good enough to win the Fifth Season Stakes.

Silver Prospector has four career wins, one of which came at Oaklawn. That was when victorious in the 2020 Southwest Stakes with a then career-best 107 figure. After a poor sixth place effort in the Rebel Stakes followed by a poorer seventh place finish in the Arkansas Derby, Silver Prospector was given nearly six months off. Returning in the fall off a lengthy layoff, Silver Prospector raced in top form to win and earned a very strong 106 figure considering the time off. Although winless in five races since, Silver Prospector ran just as well as he had in the comeback when second in the Razorback Stakes last February at Oaklawn, earning a 108 figure. Now rested since last May the same way he was in the spring of 2020 until his strong win in the fall of that year, Silver Prospector has put in a pair of very strong workouts which were the best of 52 and the fourth best of 44 on the day. These signal he could be as fit and ready to run just like he did off a similar layoff, and if he does that he could certainly compete for top honors in this race.

Concert Tour is another returning off a layoff since last May, and he too is working in the morning like he will not need a race before showing his best. Concert Tour won the first three races of his career last year, including the San Vicente Stakes and the Rebel, in which he earned a career-best 104 figure drawing off easily to win by four and one-quarter lengths in geared down fashion. After a third place finish in the Arkansas Derby¸ Concert Tour skipped the Kentucky Derby then showed up in the Preakness, running the worst race of his career when ninth of 10 and beaten more than 30 lengths. Returning to training last October, Concert Tour has been placed in the care of trainer Brad Cox, who has an exceptional record of nine wins from 25 starts with horses coming back from six months off or more in dirt routes. As such, Concert Tour appears to fit with the best of the contenders in this year's Fifth Season.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Atoka (100), Long Range Toddy (102), Mucho (108 in sprint races), Necker Island (108 in sprint races), Rated R Superstar (105) and Snapper Sinclair (115 on turf).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Thomas Shelby
Silver Prospector
Concert Tour

Fifth Season Stakes
Race 8 at Oaklawn
Saturday, January 15, 2022 – Post Time 4:46 PM E.T.
One Mile
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $150,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Thomas Shelby Could Get Perfect Trip In Oaklawn’s Fifth Season appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Leading this field is a pair of recent stakes placed runners in Cooke Creek and Ohtwoohthreefive. Cooke Creek won the Rocky Run Stakes in October and was most recently second in the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes in November, while Ohtwoohthreefive missed by a nose in the Central Park Stakes on turf near the end of November and tries dirt for the first time for his seventh career start.

Mr Jefferson also enters the Jerome off a stakes try, as he was fourth of eight in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Belmont four weeks ago. Rumble Strip Ron finished second in the Best of Ohio Stakes in October which was a race restricted to horses bred in Ohio, and he enters the race off a claiming race in November so this will be a big test.

Then there are a quartet of recent winners, including Hagler, who broke his maiden in October and then bested allowance company on Dec. 16. The other recent winners, Courvoisier, Smarten Up and Unbridled Bomber, all enter the Jerome Stakes off maiden wins and will attempt to prove they belong at this level.

Top contenders:

Hagler gets a great outside post for this one-turn mile trip at Aqueduct and appears to be the type who can be on the lead or just off the pace from the start, which is an advantage in many ways. He and jockey Jorge Vargas, Jr. can wait a few strides to see if another horse wants the lead at the start, at that point taking up a stalking position, or if no other horse wants the lead Hagler can take command. The latter is exactly what he did in his most recent race on Dec. 16 at Aqueduct where he led from start to finish.

Prior to that, on Oct. 29, Hagler stayed in second for the first half-mile before drawing off to win by four and one-half lengths. Both victories came with Vargas, Jr. in the saddle, and the first of the two earned an 84 Equibase Speed Figure which, if logically improved on in the colt's third start off a layoff, puts him in range of the top horse's figures in the field.

Those top figures belong to the other two main contenders: Ohtwoohthreefive (93) and Cooke Creek (89). Trainer Rudy Rodriguez has a very good 20 percent win rate when stretching a horse out in distance at Aqueduct (per Race Lens) over the last two years, with a +38 percent return on investment and a median win payoff of $13. As such, I expect Hagler to win his third race in a row and put his name squarely into the Road to the Kentucky Derby with a big effort in the Jerome Stakes.

Ohtwoohthreefive has raced exclusively on turf to date, with a record of 1-2-2 in six races. His best effort came in his most recent race on Nov. 27 in the Central Park Stakes, where he rallied to lead with an eighth of a mile to go then battled nose-and-nose down to the wire, losing by inches at the finish. Nevertheless, the 95 figure he earned is the best by any horse in the field. Whether that type of effort is transferrable to dirt does not appear to be a question as his sire is Union Rags, himself a talented colt on dirt including a win in the 2012 Belmont Stakes. Additionally, trainer George Weaver has a creditable five-for-16 record when moving a horse from turf to dirt over the last 12 months. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche rode Ohtwoohthreefive for the first time that day and rides back in the Jerome, and if the early pace is hotly contested this colt could be the one to get up in time and win.

Cooke Creek is the only horse in the Jerome Stakes field with a stakes win, and that win came at the same mile trip as this race. He won his debut when sprinting easily in September with a 76 figure then stretched out to a mile and won the Rocky Run Stakes in October, earning an 89 figure. Trying much tougher foes in the Nashua Stakes in November, Cooke Creek was no match for winner Rockefeller when second the entire length of the stretch but he was nearly three lengths clear of the next horse, earning an 86 figure in the process. With jockey Manuel Franco riding back after getting familiar with the colt in the Nashua, Cooke Creek certainly can win this race with just slight improvement off his Rocky Run effort.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Courvoisier (85), Mr Jefferson (82), Rumble Strip Ron (77), Smarten Up (71) and Unbridled Bomber (82).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Hagler
Ohtwoohthreefive
Cooke Creek

Jerome Stakes
Race 8 at Aqueduct
Saturday, Jan. 1, 2022 – Post Time 3:50 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Year Olds
Purse: $150,000

The post Equibase Analysis: Hagler Could Throw Knockout Punch In Jerome Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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In terms of earnings, Dr. Schivel tops the group with $876,000 banked to date, much of it earned last month when second and beaten a nose in the G1 Breeders' Cup Sprint against older horses. Prior to that, Dr. Schivel won the G2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship and the G1 Bing Crosby Stakes to prove he belongs in this race.

Stilleto Boy also ran in a race on that star-studded card but didn't fare nearly as well when fifth of eight in the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic, with his best effort of the year coming when second in the G1 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita one month earlier.

Next in terms of accomplishments is invader Timeless Bounty, who has earned $210,714 in his career and who just pulled off the 59-1 upset in the $250,000 Steel Valley Sprint Stakes one month ago at Mahoning Valley in Ohio.

Baby Yoda won three of his first four starts including a pair of impressive efforts at Saratoga this summer. At this level, however, he did not fare so well, finishing third in the G2 Vosburgh Stakes before a seventh-place effort as the heavy favorite in the Steel Valley Sprint.

Team Merchants won the non-graded Let It Ride Stakes on the turf last month and has won two of five on dirt but his two previous tries in graded stakes resulted in fourth and 13th-place finishes.

Last but absolutely not least are a pair of horses who are undefeated in two starts to date and who are running in a stakes for the first time. One of those is Flightline, with an average winning margin of 13 lengths in his two wins. The other is Triple Tap, a half-brother to champion and Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Triple Tap has won his two starts by a combined 6 1/2 lengths and appears to be a horse with an exceptionally bright future.

Win contender:

There is no discussion about this race that does not involve Flightline winning, and possibly dominating, this year's Runhappy Malibu Stakes. I cannot ever recall a 3- year-old doing what this colt has done in his two starts to date. In his debut in April, Flightline was bumped at the start and found himself sixth of eight and about 1 1/2 lengths from the leader. After a sixteenth of a mile had been run, Flightline had taken the lead and by the time the field hit the stretch he was in front by 10 lengths, eventually drawing off to win by 13 1/4 lengths. For that effort, Flightline earned a virtually unheard of 116  Equibase Speed Figure which at that time of year would have high enough to win a graded stakes.

Away from the races for a little over four months after that, Flightline relaxed in second for the first quarter mile and then won by nearly 13 lengths, this time earning a grade 1 figure of 130. To put that kind of effort into perspective, Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Aloha West earned a 110 figure and Breeders' Cup Classic winner Knicks Go earned a 118 figure. Even impressive Breeders' Cup Mile winner Life is Good (120 figure) did not run as fast as Flightline did in that effort on September 5. 

Rested almost four months this time, Flightline has been working out strongly every six to eight days since October 31, including three straight workouts that were the best of the morning from among 28, 57 and 41 horses that day. Jockey Flavien Prat, who rode Flightline to victory in both starts, also rode Dr. Schivel to win four straight races and to a nose defeat in the Breeders' Cup Sprint but chooses Flightline in the Malibu. Prat also rode Triple Tap to both of his impressive wins and chooses Flightline.

Going back to how fast Flightline has run in his two starts to date, comparing those efforts to the rest of the Malibu field, even the 116 figure Flightline earned in his maiden win in April is faster than the best figure any other horse in the field has earned this year, and if he repeats the 130 figure effort from September, and even if horses like Triple Tap (107 last race figure and Dr. Schivel (112 and 110 figures in his last two races) improve off those recent efforts, it is going to be very difficult to beat Flightline in this race. 

The rest of the field, with their best  Equibase Speed Figures, is Baby Yoda (111), Dr. Schivel (112), Stilleto Boy (106), Team Merchants (109), Timeless Bounty (100) and Triple Tap (107). 

The horse to beat in this year's Malibu Stakes is Flightline. 

If you are looking for a horse to come on strongly in the late stages and to finish second or third, the best options appear to be Dr. Schivel, Team Merchants and Timeless Bounty.

Runhappy Malibu Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Santa Anita
Sunday, December 26, 2021 – Post Time 6:49 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
Three Year Olds
Purse: $300,000

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase

The post Equibase Analysis: Runhappy Malibu Opponents May Need To Sprout Wings To Beat Flightline appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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• Dennis' Moment is one of the two in the former group, having won at the seven furlong distance in his most recent race and with a previous graded stakes win in his career as he captured the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes in the fall of 2019.
• Officiating won at this distance one race before last, the win coming in the non-graded Bear's Den Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
• Doc Amster won last month at Gulfstream Park at the shorter distance of six furlongs and is trying this seven furlong trip for the first time.
• Then there's Endorsed, with the highest career earnings in the field at $455,375. His best effort at this level came when second in the Grade 3 Westchester Stakes in June of last year, and he enters the Mr. Prospector Stakes off a fast closing third place effort in his most recent start.
• Poppy's Pride won four in a row between September and December of last year but has run poorly in two starts since returning from an eight month layoff in September.
• Wind of Change (BRZ) finished fourth in last year's Mr. Prospector and enters this year's race off a runner-up finish two months ago.
• Flap Jack rounds out the field, not having won in nine races since June, 2020 and still eligible to run in a second level allowance race.

Main win contenders:

Officiating took seven tries to earn his first win, doing so on turf this past March. Following his maiden win and after missing by a neck in a non-graded stakes race on turf and a mediocre third place effort on dirt, he was privately transferred to the barn of trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. Then, after fourth and third place finishes on turf, Officiating was entered in the Bear's Den Stakes, scheduled for turf, but stayed in the race which was moved to dirt due to weather, earning a career best 110 Equibase® Speed Figure and winning authoritatively by three and one-half lengths.

In his most recent race and following the Bear's Den, Officiating tried the Tapeta all-weather surface and two-turns in the Showing Up Stakes last month and ran poorly, demonstrating only he did not like the surface nor the distance. Cutting back to the distance of the Bear's Den while moving back to the surface of that race, it can be assumed Officiating can duplicate his effort in that race which is good enough to win. There is also little doubt about his being able to run as well considering his last two workouts on dirt coming into the race have been excellent.

Dennis' Moment was thought to be a top 2-year-old in the summer of 2019 following his 19 length win in July with a 106 figure, virtually unheard of for a young two year old. He won the Iroquois Stakes two months later but after finishing last of eight in that year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Stakes he was given time off to mature. When returning in the Fountain of Youth Stakes last February, 2020, Dennis' Moment was sent to post as the heavy favorite but finished 10th and last.

Rested another nine months, he ran poorly one year ago and was again given time off. This time the rest helped greatly as Dennis' Moment missed by a head in a six furlong sprint. Two races later in October, Dennis' Moment earned his first win in 25 months in a highly rated race at Keeneland at the distance of the Mr. Prospector, duplicating the 106 figure earned in the summer of 2019. With logical improvement off that effort in his fourth start off the rest and at the same distance of his last effort, Dennis' Moment has every right to earn a graded stakes win for the second time in his career.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Doc Amster (103), Endorsed (110), Flap Jack (101), Poppy's Pride (97) and Wind of Change (BRZ) (114).

Win Contenders, in preference order:

Officiating
Dennis' Moment

Mr. Prospector Stakes – Grade 3
Race 10 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, December 11 – Post Time 4:32 PM E.T.
Seven Furlongs
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $100,000

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Then there's a pair of horses untried at this level in Americanrevolution and Olympiad. Americanrevolution just won the Empire Classic Stakes by 11 ¾ lengths, while Olympiad won an allowance race in mid-October. Plainsman won the Grade 3 Ack Ack Stakes at the beginning of October before a disappointing third place effort as the favorite in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Handicap at the end of the month. Following Sea won the Grade 2 Vosburgh Stakes the second week of October then finished third of nine in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint and may find these opponents a bit easier. Pipeline rounds out the field as a colt who earned his first career win in September before a third place finish in the Perryville Stakes in October. 

Top three win contenders:
Olympiad is the most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just four races to date. Two were in 2020 as a 2-year-old where he finished third before winning by nearly three lengths last summer at Saratoga. For whatever reason Olympiad was given a year off by Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, and similar to his career debut 13 months earlier the colt was a bit short of 100% as he finished second this September. His next race and his most recent on October 14 was telling, as Olympiad controlled the pace in front from start to finish but even more notably held off a dogged rival throughout the stretch to win.

Improving to a career best 106 Equibase Speed Figure from 103 one month earlier, Olympiad appears to be on a pattern to take a big step forward. Jockey Joel Rosario, who rode Following Sea to victory in the Vosburgh Stakes in October as well as rode Plainsman to win the Ack Ack Stakes that same month, has never ridden Olympiad but gets aboard for the first time. This is significant in my opinion because Rosario, whose 2021 earnings stand at $32.9 million, is on a path to break the all-time yearly record for a jockey which stands at $34.1 million. As such, every mount through the end of the year takes on added significance and so Rosario's choice of riding Olympiad in a race where the winner's share of the purse is $450,000 is yet another reason I think this colt can post the upset and win the Cigar Mile Handicap.

Ginobili enters the Cigar Mile out of the toughest last race of any in the field where he was not disgraced when second of eight in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile behind Life Is Good. In that race, Life Is Good was sent to the front on fractions that would be impossible for most horses to maintain but won by almost six lengths. Ginobili raced in fifth and fourth in the early stages before showing a burst of speed to get to second, and was even lapped on the winner before Life is Good drew off in the stretch. That effort earned a 111 Equibase figure which was rock solid. Previous to that, Ginobili earned a 110 figure effort winning the Pat O'Brien Stakes in August and shows this horse has what it takes physically and mentally to win this race.

Following Sea is another coming out of a big race, the Breeders' Cup Sprint, where he finished third of nine. Although passed in the stretch by winner Aloha West, Following Sea had some traffic issues in the race as he was on the rail on the far turn and early in the stretch but lost his path. Jockey John Velazquez, who rides again in the Cigar Mile, had to angle the horse off the rail to find a path and although the momentum Following Sea had lost earlier could not be totally regained, he did surge late to get third and earn a 107 Equibase figure. One race earlier in the Vosburgh Stakes, Following Sea earned a career-best 117 figure which is one of the best in the field. One slight question is whether he will like this one-mile trip he is running for the first time as much as those two six furlongs sprints. Other than that, Following Sea appears to have what it takes to contend for top honors in the Cigar Mile. 

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Americanrevolution (117), Code of Honor (120), Independence Hall (109), Pipeline (104) and Plainsman (107). 

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Olympiad
Ginobili
Following Sea

Cigar Mile Handicap presented by NYRA Bets– Grade 1
Race 10 at Aqueduct
Saturday, December 4 – Post Time 4:13 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $750,000

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase.

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• One of those is Tide of the Sea, who on the Grade 2 William L. McKnight Stakes this past January and more recently won the Japan Turf Cup Stakes in October at a similar distance.
• Another who is proven at the level is Channel Cat, who leads the field in career earnings at $1.4 million, including when victorious in the Grade 1 Man o' War Stakes at this distance on grass in May. However, Channel Cat has lost three races since then and the Man o' War was his only win this year (from six starts), with his last win before that coming in July, 2019.
• Soldier Rising (GB) may fit with these based on his runner-up effort to eventual Breeders' Cup Turf winner Yabir in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational in September. However, his most recent effort was a disappointing fifth of 11 when favored in the Grade 2 Hill Prince Stakes last month.
• Serve the King (GB) enters the Red Smith in excellent recent form, having won the John's Call Stakes one before last and then finishing second in the Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational last month.
• Shamrocket won the Point of Entry Stakes at a mile and one-half just one month ago and might be up to the task moving into graded stakes company.
• Price Talk beat Shamrocket prior to the Point of Entry and is another untried at the distance but he has won two in a row.
• No Word was competitive at the level when second this past summer in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch Handicap but that was at a much shorter distance and he has never run farther than one mile and one-quarter.
• Another who has never run the distance is Sanctuary City, but he did finish second in the Mohawk Stakes in his most recent start.
• Corelli won the Grade 3 Singspiel Stakes at 10 furlongs on turf in August and may fit at this grade two level. He also may enjoy the longer distance as he missed by a head in a mile and one-half race in England before importing to the U.S. last year.
• Value Engineering has never raced in a stakes but enters the race off a win and the one time he ran at this mile and three-eighths trip he missed winning by just a head on the wire.

Main contenders:

Given there are knocks with the horses likely to be favored by bettors, such as Soldier Rising (GB), who has yet to win in three U.S. starts, particularly when as the eight to five favorite last month in the Hill Prince Stakes, and with Tide of the Sea, who won the Japan Turf Cup takes in October but was beaten as the seven to five favorite last month in the Point of Entry Stakes, I'll go with Price Talk to win this year's Red Smith Stakes.

First, Price Talk is the second most lightly raced horse in the field, having run just eight times, but he's won four of those eight races, including two in a row. Price Talk won the first three races of his career, including when breaking his maiden at first asking, then breaking his maiden again after being disqualified from the first win. Last November, in only the fourth start of his career, Price Talk finished third in the Gio Ponti Stakes on the Aqueduct Turf, but when returning this spring did not run well in two races thereafter. Dropped into a claiming race in August, Price Talk won with a career-best 108 Equibase® Speed Figure which was a stakes quality effort, as compared to the 109 figure Shamrocket earned winning the Point of Entry Stakes last month, the 106 figure Corelli earned winning the Singspiel Stakes in August and the 105 figure Serve the King (GB) earned when second in the Turf Classic Invitational last month.

Price Talk then bettered himself with a 113 figure winning near the end of September, in what turned out to a productive race from which Shamrocket came out of to win the Point of Entry. That 113 figure is tied for the best earned by any horse in this field in 2021 with the figure Channel Cat earned winning the Man o' War Stakes in May. As such, just repeating it is good enough to win the Red Smith, but I feel he may even better that effort and figure as this will be his third start off a layoff.

Serve the King (GB) has done very little wrong in 10 career starts, like Price Talk having won four times in his career. After winning the John's Call Stakes at the longer distance of one mile and five-eighths with a career-best 107 figure, Serve the King (GB) finished well from sixth to second in the tougher Turf Classic Invitational with a similar 105 figure effort. Irad Ortiz, Jr. was aboard for both of the horse's “A” efforts and rides back in the Red Smith, giving Serve the King (GB) a strong chance for another competitive effort good enough to win.

Shamrocket has more second place finishes (6) in his 20 race career than wins (4), and even more third place finishes (7). Still, his win last month in the Point of Entry Stakes at a mile and one-half earned a career-best 109 figure competitive with the best in this field. Javier Castellano was aboard for that win, and for the colt's last win before that in June so that is a positive sign particularly as Castellano rode Value Engineering to victory last month as well as Price Talk in his two most recent wins. As such, Shamrocket rounds out a trio of horses I think stand out against the other seven in terms of their probability to win this race.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Channel Cat (113), Corelli (106), No Word (103), Sanctuary City (107), Soldier Rising (GB) (110), Tide of the Sea (105) and Value Engineering (107).

Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Price Talk
Serve the King (GB)
Shamrocket

Red Smith Stakes – Grade 2
Race 9 at Aqueduct
Saturday, November 20 – Post Time 3:43 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three-Eighths on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $200,000

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