“I absolutely love the training industry and the breeding industry here,” said Vapredo, 85, over the phone from Bakersfield. “In fact, I'm sitting here today with the Stallion Register on my lap, trying to find the right mix for my broodmares.”

When Valpredo hasn't been producing Cal-breds–along with John Harris, he's responsible for 1994 California Horse of the Year, Soviet Problem–he's sought to popularize them through multiple warmed seats on multiple industry boards over multiple decades.

They even named a race after Valpredo, on the day he helped build to eulogize those sturdy Cal-breds he's so fond of–the Don Valpredo California Cup Sprint S., scheduled to go off again this Saturday, Cal Cup Day.

The winner of his race last year was a swanky chestnut rocket with hints of a Sequoia redwood in his coat by the name of The Chosen Vron (Vronsky). You might have heard of him. Lots have, thanks to a roundhouse of a campaign last year.

“Eric Kruljac has done a magnificent job with The Chosen Vron–he's one tough hombre,” said the scion of a family of growers, about trainer and horse, respectively.

“The training methods and the attention he's got in Kruljac's barn all add to the horse's tremendous success,” Valpredo added, before focusing his tribute. “He's an Arizona cowboy horseman, and they know how to take their time.”

Eric Kruljac | Benoit

The patient cowboy is pretty sweet on his runner, too.

“He's smart and he's competitive and he's got some talent,” said Kruljac, laying down the gauntlet early for understatement of the year–though in fairness, the trainer appeared to be merely warming to the task.

“He's got a lot of heart,” Kruljac added. “Just been a blessing for me to go into the barn and see him of a morning. He's just so cool to be around. He's all class.”

Much better.

Indeed, it was this race–the California Cup Sprint S.–which launched The Chosen Vron's 2023 campaign, showcasing just how classy a sprinter he was becoming, along with his increasing flair for the dramatic. A show-boater with a lust for the camera.

In last year's race, The Chosen Vron just held off by a whisker a fast-finishing Big City Lights (Mr. Big). Next up was a Sunday stroll in the Tiznow S.

Then it was back to slugging it out against Kings River Knight (Acclamation) in the Sensational Star S, before showing his rivals another clean set of hooves in the Thor's Echo S.

Making it seven wins in a row, the Thor's Echo recalibrated The Chosen Vron's horizons, for he was then pointed towards his highest summit yet in the G1 Bing Crosby S. at Del Mar–a race he claimed his own after a dogfight involving runner-up Anarchist (Distorted Humor) and Dr. Schivel (Violence), himself a two-time G1 winner.

Kruljac, unsurprisingly, recalls the race in terms that all but mention cherries and icing.

“Well, he had to check hard along the rail and he gave up two, three lengths. And for him to dig in and come back and win the way he did was just awesome–and in grade one company no less,” said Kruljac, recalling how The Chosen Vron was on the losing end of a mid-pack skirmish heading into the turn.

“Just watching him rally that last eighth of a mile and just will his way into the winner's circle,” Kruljac added, “it was the most exciting race of my career, for sure.”

Next up was the GI Breeders' Cup Sprint at Santa Anita. And though the race ended the horse's win-streak–he finished a never threatening fifth–there were excuses.

“I think I was too soft on him going into it and he just lacked a little sharpness. I think I backed off him too much after the Bing Crosby,” said Kruljac.

After the Breeders' Cup, however, so full of vim and vigor was The Chosen Vron, the trainer sent him back down the salt-mines just two weeks later, in the Cary Grant S. at Del Mar. He turned out the kind of effortlessly cool performance deserving of the race's namesake.

“I looked and saw the Cary Grant. I said, 'what the heck?' And he fired a huge race,” said Kruljac.

Previously, Kruljac had said about his stable star that he needed time between his races to flourish. Six weeks or more. Does the Cary Grant indicate an athlete still on the improve, one hardening into an even tougher husked antagonist?

“I think he's probably at a peak, but you never know. He's not a big horse, but extremely athletic and what's the word I'm looking for? He's just got great hinges on him. When he reaches out, he just covers so much ground so easily,” said Kruljac.

Jockey Hector Berrios aboard The Chosen Vron | Benoit

“Once he figured it out, he's just pretty much been pushbutton–just a great horse to be around in the morning in the barn and just all class,” Kruljac added. “He's a gelding, so that might make him a little easier, but it certainly hasn't cost him anything in his racing.”

Given the tumult that California racing finds itself–the impending closure of Golden Gate Fields and the shellacking that will surely have on the state breeding industry–it's probably fair to say that for fans of the good ol' honest Cal-bred, The Chosen Vron has become something of a white knight. Or perhaps more accurately, a Saint Jude-type, inspiring perseverance in difficult times.

At the very least, The Chosen Vron–who Kruljac co-owns with Sondereker Racing, Robert S. Fetkin and Richard Thornburg–has tinged this 70-year-old's career with the sanguine glow of a glorious Indian Summer.

Kruljac has six horses in training, five of them at Los Alamitos, with The Chosen Vron stabled at Santa Anita, under the charge of Herlindo Garcia, Kruljac's foreman.

Before The Chosen Vron began his ascent through the ranks, Kruljac was down on horses–so much so, he considered retirement, perhaps to help his son, Ian, with his training operation.

“I was thinking, 'this might be the last year,' so that I could be semi-retired in some form. But once he started running like he did, of course I had to stay in until he goes to pasture somewhere,” said Kruljac.

But is the future of Kruljac's training career really as inextricably linked with The Chosen Vron's? Might be smart to hold your bets for now.

One of the other five horses he has in training is the 3-year-old Clubhouse Bride (Clubhouse Ride), who made it two-for-two at Santa Anita on New Year's Day.

“We came back off of only three weeks from her debut,” said Kruljac, about a filly he calls “really well-made, balanced, beautiful and classy.”

“I was concerned when I saw the track, how deep they're keeping it,” he said, of Santa Anita. “Sure enough, she got pretty tired. But once that horse came to her, she dug in and finished the job. We're really excited about her.”

He also has four or five 2-year-olds coming in, including a “beautiful Clubhouse Ride” half-sister to The Chosen Vron.

“She's not named yet,” he said. “I don't really press on them hard early. I'd look at the earliest she would be ready to run by Del Mar or maybe in the fall. I think as a breeder, you just learn to be more patient and just enjoy the process.”

Ah yes, patience–far easier to execute on paper than in practice. Into his fourth decade with a license, however, Kruljac appears to have found a rich trade-route in this noble quality.

“The very first time or two that we breezed him after we gelded him, I knew if the horse stayed sound that he was going to be more than a maiden claimer for sure,” said Kruljac. “Though I'm not going to say I would know what he was going to win.”

The Chosen Vron | Benoit

But towards the end of his 3-year-old season–and with four stake wins already under his belt, including two GIIIs–The Chosen Vron's year was cut short with a niggling problem behind.

“We had to back off, and so we did. He had some OCD [Osteochondrosis] in a stifle, and we sent him to the right doctor up in Alamo Pintado [Equine Medical Center],” said Kruljac, singling out the work of surgeon, Carter Judy. “We owe him big time.”

The Chosen Vron returned to action the August of his 4-year-old season. Since then, his resume has been a blueprint of carefully calibrated restraint.

Which means that now, heading into this Saturday's race, The Chosen Vron “is very sharp in his gallops and workouts, so I'm very confident he's going to run a big race,” said Kruljac. “He's burning fire and ready to roll.”

As for the broader agenda for this year–provided all goes to plan this Saturday and beyond–probably a similar run of races to last year, said Kruljac, including another Del Mar waltz with Bing.

What about a potential return to the Breeders' Cup?

“Oh, absolutely. And the fact that it would be at Del Mar is another plus,” he said. “So yes, we're hopeful he comes back firing like he did last year, and with a better outcome.”

One notable absentee from Santa Anita this weekend will be the man whose race bears his name–he'll be watching at home confined to a cast, nursing a broken patellar. Turns out his hinges aren't quite as sturdy as The Chosen Vron's.

“I can outlive it, it's just that I've got to give it time,” said Valpredo, whose convalescence appears driven by the promise of a return to the track. “I'm so looking forward to it–you have no idea.”

Valpredo has a personal interest–though several times removed–in the Kruljac runner.

His “dear old friend” Elwood “Buddy” Johnson initially stood The Chosen Vron's sire, Vronsky, at his Old English Rancho farm, near Sanger, Central California.

“He was an underrated stallion,” said Valpredo, about Vronsky, who passed away in 2021. “But I've got a couple fillies by him, and I'm anxious to see them run also.”

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He got off to a fast start doing just that last year as his young son Volatile made headlines with his first crop of yearlings. From just a $17,500 initial stud fee, the Grade I-winning Three Chimneys sire saw sales of $1.15 million, $700,000 and $600,000. This year Volatile stands for $15,000 as his first crop takes to the starting gate.

Forte, Violence's leading earner to date, will launch his stud career this year at Spendthrift Farm. The GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ and four-time Grade I winner stands for $50,000.

A third son of Violence joins the stallion ranks this year and offers a welcomed bit of value for breeders. Dr. Schivel (Violence – Lil Nugget, by Mining for Money), a Grade I winner at two and three who was just a nose short of claiming the GI Breeders' Cup Sprint, represents the Taylor Made stallion roster as he launches his stud career at $12,500.

“From what I've been told by numerous breeders and from what we think as well is that it's just tremendous value for a horse at $12,500,” said Taylor Made's Travis White. “He's a son of Violence, a good-looking horse, a multiple Grade I winner and he was precocious. It's everything the commercial breeders and buyers are looking for. The Violence line is known for throwing good-looking, good-sized commercial horses and I think Dr. Schivel could be the next in line to follow suit.”

White explained that the Taylor Made scouting team has had their eye on Dr. Schivel nearly since the start of his career.

After breaking his maiden by nearly six lengths, Dr. Schivel got his first Grade I score in the 2020 Del Mar Futurity. He returned at three to face older horses and win the GI Bing Crosby S., defeating GISW Eight Rings (Empire Maker), and then got a fifth straight win in the GII Santa Anita Sprint Championship S. The Mark Glatt trainee's only loss as a 3-year-old came in the GI Breeders' Cup Sprint, where he just missed in a photo finish with Aloha West (Hard Spun).

Dr. Schivel gets up to win the 2021 GI Bing Crosby S. | Benoit

As an older horse, Dr. Schivel was third after a trip abroad for the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, placed again this year in the GI Bing Crosby S., and added another win in the GI Santa Anita Sprint Championship S. In his 15 career starts, he placed in all but three.

“For him to remain consistent and sound and be competitive and have that drive to win for four years, I think that says a lot for the horse,” said White. “If he can throw that, I think that's something that will pay dividends in the long run.”

Breeders seem to agree, as White said the horse is nearly booked full for his debut season.

“He's been very well received so far,” explained White. “We've put together a very good group of shareholders to support the horse and people who have been out to the farm to see him have really liked what they've seen. To me, you can look at Dr. Schivel and see why he was a racehorse. He's got great angles. He's got a very good neck, good shoulder and a good length of body. He's also got this really long, sleek walk to him that we all like to see when we're buying horses. He's a very good-looking horse and I think he fits our customer base really well.”

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This time round, value feels likely to prove quite elusive. With the middle market increasingly porous, stud fees overall are at a challenging level. If they were driven up by a long bull run in international bloodstock, that appears to be tapering away and there's evidently going to be quite a lag before we see any kind of relief in fees.

Instead of assessing each annual intake, and judging how its members are meeting challenges particular to a phase of their career, this year we're going to tackle them by price bands. Previously a mediocre group has sometimes left us scratching around for a horse for the Value Podium, while much better sires in stronger year groups enjoyed no such elevation. So we're simply going to work to a budget, and the full range of options within it–which, after all, is what every breeder has to do. We'll start with sires below $10,000, and work our way up through the tiers.

The one exception comes today, when we acknowledge that new sires are always a class apart. On the one hand, they are priced to exploit commercial prejudice and seldom turn out to have offered value relative to their eventual competence. Almost all will turn out to be standing at a career-high fee; and many will be packing their bags, whether for overseas or Oklahoma, even before the claims now being made on their behalf are validly tested by mature crops. Nonetheless many breeders will be focusing all their attention on this group.

The defeat of the proposed 140 cap appeared to stimulate some pointedly unfettered books last time round, when a rookie turf sprinter covered 293 mares. Regardless of the merits of that debate, and indeed of that horse, it really can't be healthy for so many mares to be corralled by unproven stallions that will mostly fail. As we've often conceded, however, it's hard to blame either commercial breeders or the stallion farms. The former need to put bread on the table, never easy; the latter, equally, can no longer bank on market interest even into a second year. (In other words, if you want fees to come down, don't just flit from one new sire to the next.)

The situation is really driven by the agents and managers driving the spending at ringside. This series will hope to challenge the refrain that breeders have no choice but to roll the dice on newcomers because proven sires are too expensive. In fact, that's exactly why we're giving the newcomers separate consideration today: few, if any, would have had a prayer of making a Value Podium in a price band shared by stallions who have actually got horses out there winning stakes. The truth about buyers' behavior is evident from the way yearling averages tend to slide markedly in the second crop even for stallions whose first runners make a flying start-as happened this year, for instance, to all four of the sires who have dominated the freshman table! (Champion elect Mitole, for instance, processed his second crop at $48,423, down from $104,638 with his first.)

We'll leave for another day the puzzle why breeding “for the sale ring” should be any different from “breeding for the track.” As I'm always saying, there should be nothing more commercial than putting a winner under your mare. The only real argument for unproven sires is self-fulfilling, in that most will never again repeat the quality and quantity of their debut books. Otherwise, investment is being directed precisely where it is most likely to fail. But each to their own, right? There's a proving ground out there, with a wooden stick at the end, and this is a great environment for anyone mating a mare with the quaint objective of breeding a runner.

So let's immerse ourselves in this perilous whirlpool of new sires, and at least try to make the gamble affordable as we seek the handful that will eventually manage to swim clear and build a viable stud career in the Bluegrass.

As indicated, that won't be easy in the current market. For a sense of where the typical commercial breeder is operating, we can calculate the median fee of the top 10 new sires in each of the past six years. This was $22,500 in 2019; $27,500 in 2020; $25,000 in 2021, as farms made a pandemic gesture; $40,000 in 2022; $35,000 in 2023; and it is again $35,000 for this latest intake.

So the typical cost of using a new sire has gone up by over half (56 percent) in the last six years, during which time the average banked for a Keeneland September yearling has risen only 13 percent. And you still don't want to use a proven horse?

Well, okay, if you insist. Let's take a look at the class of '24. But remember that this whole exercise, while undertaken with every effort at objectivity, is just one guy's opinion. You know what your mare looks like-which should, after all, be the starting point for every mating-and you know what physique would complement her best.

OVERVIEW OF THE CLASS

The retiring cohort is led by two sons of Curlin who have given an extra twist of speed to his established influence. That said, both shared another of his trademarks by thriving with maturity. Both, indeed, required four sophomore starts to win a maiden, Elite Power in September and Cody's Wish in October. So we'll have to see whether or not their brilliance will express itself on a pattern more conventional for sons of Curlin out of Seattle Slew line mares.

Elite Power | Sarah Andrew

Both those mares were elite runners themselves, of course, as a GI Kentucky Oaks runner-up and GI Gazelle S. winner respectively. The latter, Dance Card, showed conspicuous speed for a daughter of Tapit when placing in the GI Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, and had laid the ground for Cody's Wish by producing Endorsed (Medaglia d'Oro), the throwback talent who has this year won graded races in his sixth season. Elite Power meanwhile underpins his credentials with a half-sister to proven sire Dialed In as second dam, besides champion Eliza (Mt Livermore) as his fourth.

Both will take little finding but rather more funding, CODY'S WISH introduced at $75,000 and ELITE POWER at $50,000. While we all love a Met Mile winner, I'm not sure anyone could sensibly assert that there's a 50 percent difference in their potential at this stage.

GUNITE got a rear view of each, in his respective Breeders' Cup starts, but proved a handful for Elite Power in their two meetings in Saratoga this summer, running him to a head in the first and then beating him in GI Forego. And he has an edge in precocity, having won the GI Hopeful S. by nearly six lengths, enabling him to start at $40,000. His maternal family is seeded by some fairly arcane names, but the first three dams are stakes winners so it's demonstrably all working.

By the way, while we quickly learned to expect the unexpected from Gun Runner, perhaps we should pay more heed to the fact that Cody's Wish, Elite Power and Gunite were all presumably bred with two turns in mind. Quality tells, however it expresses itself. You want a Hopeful/Forego winner? Then you don't necessarily want to join a long line for a “commercial” sprinter.

Gunite | Sara Gordon

As for those who did end up with a Triple Crown agenda this year, we'll see who ends up with Eclipse laurels but the farms have meanwhile sought to anticipate the votes of breeders, with juvenile champion FORTE ($50,000) still ahead of ARCANGELO ($35,000), MAGE ($25,000) and TWO PHIL'S ($12,500).

The world was still at Forte's feet when he added the GI Florida Derby to three elite scores at two, but a couple of his contemporaries rather caught up with him. With hindsight, as the far less experienced horse, Mage's performance that day actually turned out to be the more significant pointer. But obviously commercial breeders will prize Forte's precocity, the Derby and Belmont winners both being later developers.

No newcomer has a better genetic base than Arcangelo, whose third dam is Better Than Honour, yet was found as a yearling for exactly the same price we must now pay for single cover! Hard to argue with that, given the way he followed up his Belmont breakout in the deepest sophomore field of the year at Saratoga.

Mage did not show his true colors there, but let's not lose sight of the historic level of talent required to progress so rapidly from a standing start, unraced until Jan. 28. He's gone to a farm that prices horses fairly without flooding the catalogue, and his brother's GII Remsen performance has meanwhile opened an exciting door.

That's the kind of thing that would help Two Phil's, who has an inescapably plain page. But you had to love the way he followed up a shatteringly game Derby effort on what sadly proved his only subsequent start, and the bottom line is that Danzig's last big star has covered a graded stakes sprinter and come up with something special.

Another star sophomore entering the ranks is ARABIAN LION, at $30,000. He's surely set for pinhooker shortlists as a $600,000 2-year-old who followed through to clock big numbers in the GI Woody Stephens, but those taking a longer view will also be satisfied to find Justify underpinned by Personal Ensign as third dam.

Pappacap | Sarah Andrew

TAIBA was an even more spectacular pinhook ($140,000 to $1.7 million) and paid it all back on the racetrack, winning the GI Santa Anita Derby off a maiden win and flaunting his speed when dropping back for the GI Malibu. Sticking around to run in the desert did not pay off, except maybe for breeders who might conceivably have been asked for a little more than $35,000 a year ago. Like Gunite, Taibia suggests the upgrading powers of their sire: his family owes most of its distinction to Ohio-breds, but his dam's 17 wins would be pretty remarkable in any currency.

PROXY, like Taiba, ran third in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic and that was a fitting conclusion to four seasons of set-your-clock Tapit action that left him just a tick below the very best (starts on $25,000) while thoroughly deserving his Grade I in the Clark. That hard-knocking profile befits the combination of his sire-line with a third dam also by Seattle Slew, and his dual Grade I-winning dam Panty Raid (Include) has corroborated her genetic input–sister a GI Kentucky Oaks runner-up–with a Grade II-winning daughter.

Among the more affordable newcomers, ZANDON appeals strongly at $12,500 as a horse rather more talented than generally appreciated. That's a curious suggestion of one whose consistency banked over $2 million through three campaigns in the best company, but he seldom found the right scenario to showcase that turn of foot. Even as it stands, he looks a lot of horse for this kind of money. I guess someone who could stretch for his aptly-named sire should still do so, but at this level Zandon is entitled to give Upstart fresh kudos.

DR. SCHIVEL will be in commercial demand at the same fee, as a Grade I winner at two and then also in the GI Bing Crosby S. He was beaten only two heads in his defense of that trophy, and only by a nose in the GI Breeders' Cup Sprint in between. His family carries a few faded names, but his dam is a half-sister to a Grade I winner and the blood was plainly functioning in a horse so consistently fast.

The Walmac revival meanwhile gains ground with a couple of eligibly priced recruits. PAPPACAP is assured traffic at $12,500 as a precocious son of Gun Runner, while FULSOME gives bargain access to Into Mischief at $7,500 after converting his Juddmonte page to the margin of elite performance.

War Horse Place is also showing ambition, bringing Classic winner Rombauer in from the cold at $6,000, while SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT has every right to sire runners at a bargain $3,500. This teak-tough and classy horse definitely warrants a look, having repeatedly missed adding to his solitary Grade I score only by narrow margins, including a head, a neck (twice), and half a length. He earned $1.8 million across four full campaigns and has a bunch of top runners and producers under his third dam. Do not make the mistake of assuming that his basement fee limits the kind of breeder who should be interested in recycling his merit in an expanding turf program.

VALUE PODIUM
Bronze:
UP TO THE MARK (Not This Time–Belle's Finale, by Ghostzapper)
Lane's End $25,000

Up to the Mark | Coady Photography

Here's a horse that taught a couple of valuable lessons for anyone smart enough to heed them. One is that the fearless approach can pay off even if you're beaten: the decision to risk a new distance at the Breeders' Cup, against a vintage group of Euro raiders, was arguably only thwarted by a dream trip for the winner and enabled Up to the Mark to tell us something new about himself–something that made us all think still more highly of him. Meanwhile the GI Mile was won by a horse he had nailed in their previous start, confirming his caliber at that trip.

But a still more important lesson concerned a different type of versatility. Because our horses will only expand their boundaries if we push our own, and Up to the Mark's career confirms what has long been obvious to any student of pedigrees: even when horses might have an obvious surface, on paper, we have to remember that races aren't staged on paper. How many other talents remain unfulfilled, you wonder, because they are campaigned in prescriptive fashion?

As it is, the slavish orthodoxies of our business have created a dividend for more imaginative breeders. Because the discovery that Up to the Mark was an elite performer on grass means that we get a much milder fee than would be the case for a dirt horse so narrowly denied a fourth consecutive Grade I success. And yet the pedigree that made it perfectly logical to start him on dirt–first four dams are by Ghostzapper, Capote, Fappiano and Key To The Mint–could easily filter into his second career.

After all, Not This Time himself in this instance appears to have served as a conduit for the flexibility trademarked by Giant's Causeway. Maybe Up to the Mark can now emulate his grandsire by helping breeders to overcome their prejudices, especially in an era when the American turf program is growing far faster than the available pool of talent among Kentucky stallions.

There's room at the top, after all, after the loss of Kitten's Joy and English Channel. And those who are squeamish about chlorophyll will surely be comforted that Up to the Mark's grandam Capote Bell won elite dirt dashes in the GI Test and GII Prioress. If he can breed a few to start their careers like he did, impressive in a Saratoga dirt sprint, then perhaps they will also emulate the kind of money he made as a $450,000 Book 1 yearling.

Silver:
COUNTRY GRAMMER (Tonalist–Arabian Song, by Forestry)
Winstar $10,000

Country Grammer | Benoit

This horse was one of the great auction steals at just $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland January Sale. It tells you a lot about our business that he had brought four times as much as a 2-year-old, at OBS April, yet had since won the GIII Peter Pan S.! He was chased home there by Caracaro (Uncle Mo) and Mystic Guide (Ghostzapper), respectively GI Travers runner-up and GII Jim Dandy winner on their next starts. Though it was a poignant dispersal that put him into the ring, only WinStar were wide awake. The rest of us must keep going to work!

Country Grammer now gets the chance to top up his earnings since–enormously inflated in the desert, but also very respectable in the best Californian company–at what could prove another bargain price.

It's unsurprising to be reminded that this tremendously game animal draws on two doses of Pleasant Colony, responsible for the dams of both sire Tonalist and damsire Forestry. Tonalist may be keeping his price down but remember that Country Grammer's sire is himself extremely well-bred, while the second dam is a half-sister to a brilliant dasher in Etoile Montante (Miswaki) and granddaughter of the Juddmonte foundation mare Nijinsky Star (Nijinsky). The continued efficacy of this branch has been confirmed by both his granddam (produced a very fast juvenile in Britain) and his own mother, whose daughter by Runhappy banked over half a million with multiple graded stakes placings.

On pedigree as well as performance, then, Country Grammer is absolutely entitled to sire an elite runner like himself, and you can't say that of many horses standing at this kind of money. Personally, I wouldn't labor the point about his earnings: nobody is going to deceive themselves that this is the third best American Thoroughbred of all time, and the real point of his Dubai win was that he had too much for the likes of Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow), Life Is Good (Into Mischief) and Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow). And pinhookers should note the progress he made, admittedly as a May 11 foal, from $60,000 September yearling to his bullet breeze in Ocala.

Gold:
LOGGINS (Ghostzapper–Beyond Blame, by Blame)
Hill 'n' Dale $7,500

Loggins | Coady Photography

Like everybody else, and far more than many, I'm just guessing with all these horses. But every now and then even I can strike lucky and that was certainly the case with Not This Time. I was in his corner from the moment he went to stud in 2017 at $15,000-a fee he has meanwhile increased tenfold-and I feel there are striking echoes about this fellow, who starts at half that price.

Both ran the subsequent champion juvenile to a neck on what unfortunately proved to be their final start, and in each case their connections were entitled to hope for revenge next time. At the Breeders' Cup Not This Time had to concede first run to Classic Empire, who exploited his cleaner trip but was all out to hold on. Loggins, in contrast, was exposed to a hot pace in the GI Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland, and yet rallied bravely as Forte picked up the pieces. Moreover, the winner jostled him towards the rail sufficiently for a rider objection, albeit one that was ultimately not sustained. Regardless it was a remarkable effort, against the GI Hopeful winner, from a horse that could not have learned too much when breaking his maiden by over eight lengths on debut.

He now enters competition with Mystic Guide for what remains a slightly alarming vacancy as a worthy heir to their sire, who's plainly in the evening of his career as he welcomes Loggins to the barn. It would be a shame if such a flamboyant talent failed to secure a male conduit for genes that have already served Justify and Up to the Mark so well, through their dams.

Loggins himself shared a damsire with Forte, in Blame. My feeling is that Blame's precocity in this capacity channels the quality both of his own maternal line, and that of his sire Arch. Now Loggins can combine that legacy with Ghostzapper's prowess as a broodmare sire, typical of the Deputy Minister sire-line. As such, any breeder who wouldn't mind retaining a filly would be well advised to consider Loggins.

He was a $460,000 Saratoga yearling, remember, as the first starter for a graded stakes winner out of a half-sister to two others. The next dam is a dual Grade II-placed Unbridled's Song half-sister not only to Street Boss but also to the dam of another elite sprinter in Jack Christopher (Munnings).

As the rest of this podium demonstrates, we'd appreciate rather more proof of soundness. But the bottom line is that a raw Loggins had shown himself to be nearly Forte's equal, forcing him seven lengths clear of smart horses like Red Route One (Gun Runner), Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro), Newgate (Into Mischief), Two Phil's (Hard Spun) and Funtastic Again (Funtastic). All served as complimentary proxies on the Derby trail after Loggins was derailed.

Forte obviously achieved a much deeper body of work, but that's why he's basically seven times the price. Loggins has gone to a farm that has excelled with these brief meteors and its owner must have been very keen, given that Spendthrift was in the ownership group that made a deal to send him here. In the current fee climate, he has been priced with unbelievable generosity. That will surely secure the kind of volume that can help Loggins make his second career far more sustainable than his first.

The Value Podium: New Sires

Gold: LOGGINS. $7,500 Hill 'n' Dale.

• Reminiscent of Not This Time.

Silver: COUNTRY GRAMMER. $10,000 WinStar.

• Modern career, old school merit.

Bronze: UP TO THE MARK. $25,000 Lane's End.

• Turf discount but potential for any surface.

Check out our breeders picks for their value sires of 2024.

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First or second in nine of 14 lifetime starts, the earner of $1,327,100 was campaigned by Red Baron's Barn, Rancho Temescal, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, and William A. Branch, and trained by Mark Glatt.

“We are very excited for the opportunity to stand Dr. Schivel in partnership with Tim Cohen, Dean Reeves, and Bill Branch,” said Taylor Made's Travis White. “It's very special to have a horse that was talented and precocious enough to win a Grade I at two and then come back to win another Grade I as a 3-year-old, beating older horses. Dr. Schivel, who has defeated 13 Grade I winners in his career, has been a sound, extremely consistent horse and his Breeders' Cup Sprint as a 3-year-old was a remarkable performance.”

Winner of the GI Del Mar Futurity at two, he returned at three to add a win in the GI Bing Crosby S. and GII Santa Anita Sprint Championship before rounding out the season with a close-up second in the GI Breeders' Cup Sprint. This year, he was third in the Bing Crosby and won the Santa Anita Sprint Championship in his latest start Sept. 30.

White added, “He has remained in Grade I form throughout his racing career, and Mark Glatt said Dr. Schivel has been all class from day one. He is a big, good-looking son of Violence and breeders will really like what they see.”

Bred in Kentucky by William A. Branch and Arnold R. Hill, the 5-year-old is out of Lil Nugget, a half-sister to multiple Grade I winner and millionaire Ultra Blend. Dr. Schivel's first two dams are both Grade I producers.

Dr. Schivel is the second-highest earner for his sire Violence, a Top 10 General Sire in 2023. In addition to Dr. Schivel, Violence is also represented by the reigning Champion 2-Year-Old Male Forte, a four-time Grade I winner. Violence is also the sire of GISW Volatile, who had yearlings sell for $1,150,000 and $700,000 at the Keeneland September Sale. With a current yearling average of $134,973, Volatile has the third-highest yearling of all first-crop sires.

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Slow Down Andy, front-running winner of the GII Awesome Again, “ate up a full feed tub and is doing great this morning,” said Leandro Mora, assistant for trainer Doug O'Neill.

Second in last year's GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Keeneland, Slow Down Andy this year will target the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles.

Dr. Schivel scored by a head over Speed Boat Beach (Bayern) in the GII Santa Anita Sprint Championship under Juan Hernandez, earning a 103 Beyer.

“This horse keeps coming back off extended vacations and is always pretty much the same horse,” Mark Glatt said. “That's pretty hard to do. We'll see if he has one more good one in him.”

Dr. Schivel will now get a second crack in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Two years ago at Del Mar in the Del Mar Sprint, the now 5-year-old Violence colt endured a heart-breaking nose loss to Aloha West.

“You're just hopeful for opportunities and the Breeders' Cup is a big one,” Glatt said. “He'll be on his home track. There will be plenty of tough competition I'm sure, but we'll give it our best shot.”

Trained by Richard Mandella, Lane Way earned a 95 Beyer Saturday and will be pointed to the GI Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint Nov. 4. It will be contested at five furlongs, which Mandella acknowledged is perhaps shorter than Lane Way's ideal trip.

“They're not going to change it for me,” he said.

Hong Kong Harry, a neck winner of the GII City of Hope Mile, is not nominated to the Breeders' Cup and won't be supplemented, trainer Phil D'Amato said Sunday.

“The owners would have to put up a couple hundred thousand to run. We're going to just wait for the (GII) Seabiscuit,” D'Amato added.

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Last seen running a close-up third in the GI Bing Crosby S. at Del Mar over the summer, Dr. Schivel had plenty of back class to call on here: third last year at Meydan in the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen for his only start of the season, second to Aloha West (Hard Spun) in the 2021 Breeders' Cup Sprint, and victorious in that year's GI Bing Crosby. He was also a winner of the GI Del Mar Futurity as a juvenile, making him one of very few runners who can claim Group or Grade I black-type every year he's raced.

Sent to the blocks here carrying 2-1 odds against a well-traveled line up of challengers, Dr. Schivel was quickly sent along after a light bobble at the jump to garner a forward position as Sir Atticus (Gormley) sailed though the early fractions in company of Speed Boat Beach, who was returning from the bench for the first time in almost 10 months. With that trio making all the running passing the three-furlong pole, Dr. Schivel took the inland route as the longshot pacesetter continued fighting off challenges to both sides but Speed Boat Beach looked intent on making a race out of it from the grandstand side. With Sir Atticus tiring by the furlong marker, the top two locked horns for the money and the race's 2021 champion would not be denied despite a valiant effort from the Bob Baffert trainee. Fort Bragg (Tapit) made a belated rally to pick up third.

“The whole plan was to take the same path we did in 2021 and it worked really well that year. It was within an inch of working terrific, but you know I think these sprinters want to run a little fresh and at the same time I like the four weeks out from the Breeders' Cup. Four or five weeks. He got a good race under his belt,” said winning trainer Mark Glatt.

He added: “The ownership group is wonderful to train for they always allow me to do what is good for the horse, he's had his vacations and we've had to be patient. In some cases at times we had to be double patient and that's why he is around still because he wasn't pushed once he gave us the warning light. Hopefully he has one more good one in him and then he gets to go on to his second career.”

When asked if Dr. Schivel will be seen again at the Breeders' Cup, Tim Cohen was very clear: “But of course!”

Pedigree Notes:

The most accomplished of his family, Dr. Schivel hails from a racing one as seven of his siblings have all made it to the races, more than half being winners themselves. Their dam is a winning half-sister to millionaire GISW Ultra Blend (Richly Blended); MSP Swing Thoughts (U S Ranger); and to the dam of MSW Lakerball (Lakerville). The most recent sibling to the races 2-year-old Lil Anthony (Anthony's Cross) is unplaced thus far, and Lil Nugget did produced a 2023 full-sister to Dr. Schivel. She went to Volatile for 2024.

Jockey @JJHernandezS19 makes a tremendous ride aboard #2 DR. SCHIVEL ($6.80) for his second victory in the (G2) Santa Anita Sprint Championship. Congratulations to trainer Mark Glatt and connections with this son of Violence.

Play the Pick 4 at @SantaAnitaPark on TVG. pic.twitter.com/Ywg8ryaeqZ

— TVG (@TVG) September 30, 2023

Saturday, Santa Anita
SANTA ANITA SPRINT CHAMPIONSHIP S. PRESENTED BY ESTRELLA JALISCO-GII, $202,000, Santa Anita, 9-30, 3yo/up, 6f, 1:08.49, wf.
1–DR. SCHIVEL, 122, h, 5, by Violence
          1st Dam: Lil Nugget, by Mining for Money
          2nd Dam: Ankha, by Desert Classic
          3rd Dam: Distant Runner, by Distant Day
($37,000 RNA Ylg '19 KEEJAN). O-Red Baron's Barn LLC, Rancho Temescal LLC, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and William A. Branch; B-William A. Branch & Arnold R. Hill (KY); T-Mark Glatt; J-Juan J. Hernandez. $120,000. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 14-7-2-3, $1,327,100. Werk Nick Rating: B. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Speed Boat Beach, 120, c, 3, Bayern–Sophia Mia, by Pioneerof the Nile. ($12,000 Ylg '21 OBSOCT; $200,000 2yo '22 OBSMAR). O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman; B-Caperlane Farm (FL); T-Bob Baffert. $40,000.
3–Fort Bragg, 120, c, 3, Tapit–March X Press, by Shanghai Bobby. ($700,000 Ylg '21 FTKOCT). O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Catherine Donovan; B-SF Bloodstock LLC & Henry Field Bloodstock (KY); T-Bob Baffert. $24,000.
Margins: HD, 1 1/4, 3/4. Odds: 2.40, 3.00, 10.10.
Also Ran: Sir Atticus, American Theorem, Visitant, Arabian Lion, C Z Rocket, Spirit of Makena.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

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Facing an exceptionally deep field of sprinters in Saturday's 'Win and You're In' GI Bing Crosby S. at Del Mar, it was the California-bred The Chosen Vron (Vronsky) who got the money. He, however, is not nominated to the Breeders' Cup and would have to be supplemented for this fall's GI Breeders' Cup Sprint.

With the victory, the 5-year-old gelding matched a bar set earlier in the day by Eclipse champion male sprinter Elite Power (Curlin) with both horses stretching their respective winning streaks to eight.

He entered off a series of state-bred stakes races dating back to last summer at Los Alamitos. Running over both turf and dirt at exclusively California tracks, The Chosen Vron last raced at Santa Anita May 28 with a 5 1/2-length romp in the Thor's Echo S.

Away from the gate in good order, the chestnut settled in the second flight of horses behind pacesetters Peaceful Waters (Dialed In) and Todo Fino (Chi) (Verrazano). The field shuffled around as Todo Fino was pulled up into the far turn and The Chosen Vron had to angle out to avoid clipping heels. Caught between horses now in seventh as the opening quarter went in :21.92, he came through a generous gap to be part of a six-horse calvary charge at the top of the lane.

Only three remained with less than a furlong to run and The Chosen Vron had to fend off a pair of rivals to his outside as all three runners came to the line together. With just a head separating the trio, the son of Vronsky got the bob over The Anarchist (Distorted Humor) and the 2021 winner of this race Dr. Schivel (Violence).

“If the next Cal-bred race had been on the dirt, I probably would not have gone today,” winning trainer Eric Kruljac said. “I went back and forth and my foreman told me he would shoot me if I didn't run. So I thought we might take a shot.”

Pedigree Notes:

The Chosen Vron is one of five graded winners, two at the top level, for his sire Vronsky. Tiz Molly, a half-sister to the stakes-placed Modacious (Uncle Mo), has produced fillies by Clubhouse Ride in 2022-23. Modacious, in foal to Quality Road, sold for $600,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November sale. The Chosen Vron's third dam, Deputy's Delight, produced multiple graded stakes winner Delightful Kiss (Kissin Kris), as well as Canadian champion Delightful Mary (Limehouse).

That was an incredible @BreedersCup win and you're in Bing Crosby Stakes (GI) at Del Mar. #4 THE CHOSEN VRON ($11) holds on late to win his 8th straight race. The son of Vronsky has now won 13 of 17 career races. @HIBerrios was in the irons for Eric Kruljac. Congrats to all! pic.twitter.com/ntWrng8LTS

— TVG (@TVG) July 30, 2023

Saturday, Del Mar
BING CROSBY S.-GI, $403,500, Del Mar, 7-29, 3yo/up, 6f, 1:09.24, ft.
1–THE CHOSEN VRON, 122, g, 5, by Vronsky
1st Dam: Tiz Molly, by Tiz Wonderful
2nd Dam: Deputie's Notebook, by Notebook
3rd Dam: Deputy's Delight, by French Deputy
1ST GRADE I WIN. O-Sondereker Racing LLC, Kruljac, J. Eric, Fetkin, Robert S. and Thornburgh, Richard; B-Tiz Molly Partners (CA); T-J. Eric Kruljac; J-Hector Isaac Berrios. $240,000. Lifetime Record: 17-13-1-2, $1,032,678. Werk Nick Rating: D. Click  for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Anarchist, 122, c, 4, Distorted Humor–Vicarious Won, by Elusive Quality. 1ST G1 BLACK-TYPE. ($75,000 Ylg '20 KEESEP). O-Ilium Stables, LLC; B-Centaur Farms, Inc. (KY); T-Doug F. O'Neill. $80,000.
3–Dr. Schivel, 122, h, 5, Violence–Lil Nugget, by Mining for Money. ($37,000 RNA Ylg '19 KEEJAN). O-Red Baron's Barn LLC, Rancho Temescal LLC, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and Branch, William A.; B-William A. Branch & Arnold R. Hill (KY); T-Mark Glatt. $48,000.
Margins: HD, HD, 1 1/4. Odds: 4.50, 8.00, 1.80.
Also Ran: Kid Corleone, C Z Rocket, American Theorem, Sibelius, Hoist the Gold, Get Her Number, Peaceful Waters, Todo Fino (Chi), Spirit of Makena. Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

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The horse who set up the longshot by engaging in a speed duel with the favorite over the mud was Whichone, a colt owned by Harry Payne Whitney (yes, that important family). And what other Thoroughbred did Whitney own? Well, that would be Upset, who did just that, when he handed the great Man o' War his only career loss. And that is a minor example of a nexus.

As part of the Saratoga weekend card, it seems fitting that Saturday's GII Jim Dandy S. is the main prep for next month's GI Travers S. Horse racing, like life, always reflects irony of some type.

In this year's edition, Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming) isn't going to be 100-1. However, compared to the experience of GIII Matt Winn S. victor and 'TDN Rising Star' Disarm (Gun Runner), Eclipse champion 2-year-old and 'TDN Rising Star' Forte (Violence), who will be wearing first-time blinkers, Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}), winner of the GIII Withers S. and second in the GII Wood Memorial S., and GI Arkansas Derby star and GI Kentucky Derby third Angel of Empire (Classic Empire), the 3-year-old colt has something to prove after running second last time out in the GIII Dwyer S. July 1 at Belmont Park. The Brad Cox trainee passed the eye test in his debut at Keeneland in April and against allowance company May 21 at Churchill Downs.

Not to be missed on the Saratoga Saturday card is another race with historical connections in spades. This year's GI Alfred G. Vanderbilt H. will feature a rematch from February's G3 Riyadh Dirt Sprint in Saudi Arabia in which the reigning Eclipse champion dirt sprinter and GISW Elite Power (Curlin) stepped away as GISW Gunite (Gun Runner) gave chase for second. The $900,000 Keeneland September buy built on that win with another impressive display in the GII True North S.

Elite Power | Sarah Andrew

Elite Power worked a half mile alone in :51.22 Sunday over the Oklahoma training track in a breeze that Mott indicated was similar to the chestnut's half-mile work in :51.11 on Oct. 28 over the same surface ahead of his Breeders' Cup victory. “That's him by himself,” Mott said. “He's run well off of those kind of works right before his races. He did that in Saudi. He was working :51 before he won the Breeders' Cup. He wouldn't wow anyone when he's working by himself.”

Looking elsewhere on Saturday in North America, Monmouth Park will card its own Oaks. The Grade III includes Promiseher America (American Pharoah) from Ray Handal's stable and Occult (Into Mischief), who was last seen running third to MGISW Pretty Mischievous (Into Mischief) in the GI Acorn S. on the Belmont S. undercard.

In the wake of cancellations due to heat the past couple of days, Woodbine Racetrack will hope to run the GII Seagram Cup for 3-year-olds and up. Tyson (Tapit) will garner much attention since the 4-year-old gray colt won the GIII Dominion Day S. last time out for trainer Josie Carroll.

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club will have plenty of action to contribute as their program includes the GII San Diego H. and the GI Bing Crosby S., which offers a Breeders' Cup 'Win and You're In' voucher for the GI BC Qatar Racing Sprint.

Both Del Mar races sport field sizes of 10-plus. The San Diego includes MGISW Defunded (Dialed In), who won Santa Anita's GI Gold Cup May 29 and will carry the most weight here at 125. With 12 hopefuls entered for the Bing Crosby, Anarchist (Distorted Humor) returns to California after running second to Elite Power in the GII True North S. The 4-year-old colt will face some veteran runners in G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen hero Sibelius (Not This Time) and MGISW and '21 winner Dr. Schivel (Violence).

Rebel's Romance works at Saratoga | Sarah Andrew

Shifting to Sunday, not to be missed on the stakes slate are a pair of Grade IIs for 3-year-olds and up over the turf. Saratoga's Bowling Green S. has enticed GI Breeders' Cup Turf conqueror Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) for trainer Charlie Appleby. Last seen running a well-beaten seventh in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic in March, the 5-year-old gelding will look to get his second half of his season off on the right foot.

“He's a well-traveled horse; Germany, Keeneland, England and Dubai,” said Appleby's traveling assistant Chris Connett. “He's traveled this trip pretty well and he's settled in good shape. He's a typical Dubawi, he's got better with age. He's a big horse that's really grown into his frame. Hopefully, we'll get to see him at his best on Sunday.”

Count Again | Horsephotos

Meanwhile the Eddie Read S. at Del Mar includes four entries from Phil D'Amato's shedrow, including MGISW Count Again (Awesome Again), winner last time out of the GI Shoemaker Mile S. May 30 at Santa Anita Park, and MGSW Balnikov (Ire) (Adaay {Ire}), who is looking to bounce back after finishing eighth in that same race. The competitive Leo Powell trainee and MGSW Dicey Mo Chara (GB) (Adaay {Ire}) goes out for a barn that won last weekend's GII San Clemente S. The 5-year-old gelding's last start yielded a finished third-place finish at Santa Anita May 13 in the GIII San Luis Rey S.

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The multiple Grade I winner, third in the 2022 G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, returned from a near 14-month absence with a sharp allowance victory in Arcadia May 13. He was also under consideration for next Saturday's GII True North S. in New York.

“We think both races are very tough, but the Met Mile could do wonders for his stud career,” trainer Mark Glatt said. “We figured this will likely be the last chance for him. He's fresh, he's sharp off that comeback win we feel it's as good a time as any to give it a try.”

He is set to face a Met field that is also likely to include Cody's Wish (Curlin) and 'TDN Rising Star' Taiba (Gun Runner), among others. Dr. Schivel ships to the East Coast on Tuesday.

Work of the Day from @santaanitapark—Dr. Schivel (Outside), 6F in 1:13.00, and Big Baby, 5F in 1:01.00, worked on June 3rd, 2023, for trainer Mark Glatt. pic.twitter.com/EA6LmoktYh

— XBTV (@WatchXBTV) June 3, 2023

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Among the top horses raced by the Cohens–sometimes in partnership–were GISWs Janet (GB) (Emperor Jones), River Boyne (Ire) (Dandy Man {Ire}), and Dr. Schivel (Violence). The stable most recently took the leading owner title at the 2022 Santa Anita fall and winter meets and is currently leading the Del Mar meet. Their most recent win came in the final race Saturday at Del Mar in an optional allowance with Percolate (Ire) (Sir Percy {GB}). The operation often bought ready-made racehorses in Europe and had success in bringing them to compete stateside.

According to his son, Tim Cohen, Jed Cohen had been involved in horse racing for about 61 years and was brought to the sport through his own father's pocket-change forays in the Big Apple.

“His father loved horse racing,” said Tim. “His father and three other people would pool 50 cents together to make a $2 bet in New York.”

A backbone of the California racing industry for decades, Jed Cohen's “greatest achievement,” said Tim, was the “the achievement of others. He was always immensely happy with everyone associated in the victories. His greatest victory was the joy of others.”

That, “and he just had this genuine love of people and horses,” said Tim. “We never wanted the last race out of a horse. We always wanted them treated the right way. If there was a problem, we stopped. He never wanted a horse to run if it wasn't exactly right.”

Former trainer Darrell Vienna, who enjoyed tremendous success with horses racing in Cohen's colors, concurs.

“He was the perfect owner. If a horse needed rest, he absolutely insisted on it. His attitude was, 'let's do the best by the horse,'” said Vienna, who estimated that he had known Cohen for more than 30 years.

“He was just a really special person,” Vienna said. “After I retired from training, we kept in close contact. We spoke regularly about racing, about life and politics.”

Though an astute handicapper, Cohen kept it small–like his own father. “A big bet for him would be $20. He just loved analyzing races,” said Vienna. “I'll miss having access to his wisdom and his kindness. He was an exceptional listener–he was always paying attention. He was just a unique, extraordinary person. He's a big loss to horse racing but an even bigger loss to anyone who knew him.”

Cohen is survived by his wife, Bobbie; as well as his children Tim, Mark, and Linda; and two grandsons.

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