The fields and post positions for the evening's four non-Group 1 races–including the Dubai Kahayla Classic for the Purebred Arabians–were announced Monday, while stalls for the five elite-level contests were allotted during a ceremony Wednesday evening emceed by Rishi Persad and Laura King at the Armani Hotel at the iconic Burj Khalifa in Central Dubai.

Ushba Tesoro (Jpn) (Orfevre {Jpn}) will look to join Thunder Snow (Ire) (Helmet {Aus}) as the only two-time winners of the World Cup, and his trainer Noboru Takagi was first to the stage, where he selected barrier five. The 7-year-old had gate eight a year ago and was off to an awkward start before steaming home to peg back Algiers (Ire) (Shamardal) close to home. The commonly owned Wilson Tesoro (Jpn) (Kitasan Black {Jpn}), second to Ushba Tesoro in the G1 Tokyo Daishoten over the World Cup distance in December, drew 11.

Senor Buscador (Mineshaft) ran down Ushba Tesoro in the final jump of the G1 Saudi Cup in Riyadh five weeks ago, and the two square off for the third time at the weekend. The likeable 6-year-old was represented on stage by trainer Todd Fincher and co-owner Joe Peacock Jnr looked on as Senor Buscador was assigned barrier 10.

Last year's G2 UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits) was at a fitness disadvantage when a sound fifth in Riyadh first-up for better than four months and figures to have come on for that reappearance. He will begin from stall eight.

Kazakh-owned Kabirkhan (California Chrome) will look to complete a fairy-tale season while trying to emulate his World Cup-winning stallion Saturday evening. Purchased for the bargain price of $12,000 as a Keeneland September yearling, the chestnut will break from post position two for jockey Pat Dobbs and trainer Doug Watson.

Trainer Bob Baffert and Frankie Dettori teamed to take out the 2022 World Cup with Country Grammer (Tonalist) and will look for history to repeat itself with Newgate (Into Mischief) from the six hole. He exits a victory in the GI Santa Anita H. Mar. 2.

Juddmonte Farms' Laurel River (Into Mischief) ran up the score in the G3 Burj Nahaar over 1600 metres on Super Saturday Mar. 2, but sensing that it could be a paceless renewal of the World Cup, connections have rolled the dice. He will have to be on his best behaviour, as any misstep from the widest stall in 12 could prove his undoing.

In the other Group 1 tests:

• Auguste Rodin (Ire) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) has drawn seven and Japanese Triple Tiara winner Liberty Island (Jpn) (Duramente {Jpn}) nine for the G1 Longines Dubai Sheema Classic, where 10 Group 1 winners from eight nations vie for a $6-million pot.

• Lord North (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) will go for a fourth straight $5-million G1 Dubai Turf from gate 11, with Japan's Do Deuce (Jpn) (Heart's Cry {Jpn}) in five, Luxembourg (Ire) (Camelot {GB}) drawn three and stablemate Nashwa (GB) (Frankel {GB}) out in 16.

• Defending champion Sibelius (Not This Time) has gate six for the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen where he faces G3 Riyadh Dirt Sprint hero Remake (Jpn) (Lani), Bold Journey (Hard Spun), a late-on-the-scene third in the same race, and the capable locals Mouheeb (Flatter) and Tuz (Oxbow).

• Hong Kong's California Spangle (Ire) (Starspangledbanner {Aus}) will start from gate five in the G1 Al Quoz Sprint against the smart 3-year-old filly Frost At Dawn (Frosted), the veteran Emaraaty Ana (GB) (Shamardal) and defending champion Danyah (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}.

The full field for the 2024 Dubai World Cup:

1 (7) Clapton (Brethren)

2 (1) Crupi (Curlin)

3 (9) Defunded (Dialed In)

4 (8) Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits)

5 (3) Dura Erede (Jpn) (Duramente {Jpn})

6 (2) Kabirkhan (California Chrome)

7 (12) Laurel River (Into Mischief)

8 (4) Military Law (GB) (Dubawi {Ire})

9 (6) Newgate (Into Mischief)

10 (10) Senor Buscador (Mineshaft)

11 (5) Ushba Tesoro (Jpn) (Orfevre {Jpn})

12 (11) Wilson Tesoro (Jpn) (Kitasan Black {Jpn})

It's all set!

The final post position for the 28th running of the #DubaiWorldCup!#DWC24 pic.twitter.com/gYdTv4BGu9

— Dubai Racing Club (@RacingDubai) March 27, 2024

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Looking to make it back-to-back successes in the world's richest horse race following the stunning all-the-way victory by Panthalassa (Jpn) (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn}) last February are Japan's champion dirt horse Lemon Pop (Lemon Drop Kid); reigning G1 Dubai World Cup winner Ushba Tesoro (Jpn) (Orfevre {Jpn}); Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits), last year's G2 UAE Derby hero and runner-up to White Abarrio (Race Day) in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic; and the MGSW/MG1SP Meisho Hario (Jpn) (Pyro).

Lightly raced for a 6-year-old, with just 14 starts under his belt, Lemon Pop won last year's G1 February S. and ventured overseas for the first time for the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. An outpaced 10th behind Sibelius (Not This Time), the chestnut successfully stepped up in trip and wired the G1 Champions Cup in his first try over nine furlongs last December. Connections have opted for the path of greater resistance for his seasonal debut a week from Saturday.

“There's going to be plenty of competition there and that nine furlongs will test him now because we're not absolutely sure that's his best distance,” Godolphin Japan President Harry Sweeney told the TDN's Emma Berry in a recent interview. “But anyway, the option really is either to stay at home in Japan and run in the February S….or to go abroad and run in the Saudi Cup. So that's what we're doing.”

Say hello to four of Team Japan's G1 Saudi Cup contenders!

LEMON POP #レモンポップ
DERMA SOTOGAKE #デルマソトガケ
USHBA TESORO #ウシュバテソーロ
MEISHO HARIO #メイショウハリオ#サウジカップ | #競馬 | @JRA_WorldRacing pic.twitter.com/iloUlALcVU

— The Saudi Cup (@thesaudicup) February 15, 2024

A field of 16 will be drawn Friday for Sunday's February S., a 'Win and You're In' challenge race that offers a berth in the field for the 2024 Breeders' Cup Classic at Del Mar. But while the February does not lack for quantity, the racing calendar dictates that the country's stars are elsewhere.

“In truth, [the Saudi Cup] hurts the February S. a little bit, which is only one of two Grade 1 races in the JRA calendar on dirt,” Sweeney opined. So you have horses like Lemon Pop, Ushba Tesoro, Derma Sotogake all going to Saudi. Whereas in a different era they would all run in the February S.”

The Japanese have been major players in the brief history of the Saudi Cup races, and their other main chances include defending champion Bathrat Leon (Jpn) (Kizuna {Jpn}) in the G2 1351 Turf Sprint; Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) in the G3 Saudi Derby; and Remake (Jpn) (Lani), who will try to improve on his third-place effort in the G3 Riyadh Dirt Sprint.

The American representatives also touched down in Riyadh late Wednesday evening, including the Saudi Cup-bound White Abarrio, National Treasure (Quality Road) and Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming).

Three of Team USA's G1 Saudi Cup contenders arriving to quarantine at @JCSA_Racing.

SAUDI CROWN
WHITE ABARRIO
NATIONAL TREASURE #TheSaudiCup | – pic.twitter.com/XMtfiinzPl

— The Saudi Cup (@thesaudicup) February 15, 2024

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The United States is set to be represented by a five-strong entry in the $20-million richest race in the world, a team headed by White Abarrio (Race Day), who will be making his first start since besting Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits) in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita Nov. 4. The 5-year-old, trained by Richard Dutrow, Jr., has remained in California since and has logged seven workouts dating back to Dec. 24, including a five-furlong drill that was timed in :59.60 (3/120) Feb. 3.

Also making the trip over from the states are National Treasure (Quality Road) and Senor Buscador (Mineshaft), first and second, respectively, in the GI Pegasus World Cup Invitational Jan. 26; GII Cigar Mile H. hero and Pegasus fourth Hoist the Gold (Mineshaft); and Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming), last year's GI Pennsylvania Derby hero and recent winner of the GIII Louisiana S.

Derma Sotogake is one of five Japanese-based horses gearing up for the nine-furlong test and will be joined on the trip over by Ushba Tesoro (Jpn) (Orfevre {Jpn}), the 2023 G1 Dubai World Cup winner and a good fifth in the Classic; champion Japanese dirt horse and dual Group 1 winner Lemon Pop (Lemon Drop Kid); G2 UAE Derby and G3 Korea Cup victor Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}); and multiple Group 3 winner Meisho Hario (Jpn) (Pyro).

Most intriguing among the probables is the globetrotting Luxembourg (Ire) (Camelot {GB}) for trainer Aidan O'Brien. A Group 1 winner at ages two, three and four in Europe, the 5-year-old will make his first start on the dirt, having just missed behind Romantic Warrior (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}) in the G1 Longines Hong Kong Cup Dec. 10.

The home team fields the remaining three runners, including the recently imported American Grade I winner Defunded (Dialed In); Power in Numbers (Girvin), undefeated in four starts in Saudi Arabia since selling for $400,000 at the 2023 Fasig-Tipton Horses of Racing Age Sale; and Carmel Road (Quality Road), who aired by 7 1/2 lengths in a valuable 1600-meter race Jan. 13.

Emergency runners include the Doug Watson-trained 2023 G2 Godolphin Mile winner Isolate (Mark Valeski) and Scotland Yard (Quality Road), a close second to Power in Numbers in the King's Cup last time.

The probable starters for the remaining Saudi Cup races may be accessed here.

LIKELY FIELDS RELEASED!

$37.6m in total prize money
13 countries represented
#TheSaudiCup (23-24 Feb)

See who's set to run below.

— The Saudi Cup (@thesaudicup) February 9, 2024

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White Abarrio (Race Day) is chief among the entries for the $20-million G1 Saudi Cup. The Rick Dutrow, Jr. runner is doing his preparations in California for the 1800-meter test, where he could face Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits), whom he defeated when last seen in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita in early November. The Japanese–which have 110 entries across the races–could also be represented by reigning G1 Dubai World Cup winner and Breeders' Cup Classic fifth Ushba Tesoro (Jpn) (Orfevre {Jpn}) as well as Godolphin's Japanese champion dirt horse Lemon Pop (Lemon Drop Kid), who earned a spot in the Saudi Cup field when winning the G1 Champions Cup in December. National Treasure (Quality Road), victorious in last year's GI Preakness S., is one of five entries for trainer Bob Baffert, who has also nominated GI Malibu S. winner Speed Boat Beach (Bayern) and Zedan Racing Stable's Hejazi (Bernardini), runner-up in that seven-furlong test Dec. 26. The Brad Cox barn could be represented by Saudi-owned GI Pennsylvania Derby winner Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming), while Scotland Yard (Quality Road) is among the chief local chances. Aidan O'Brien has entered Luxembourg (Ire) (Camelot {GB}) and Point Lonsdale (Ire) (Australia {GB}) for what would be their dirt debuts in the Saudi Cup.

Japan's Silver Sonic (Jpn) (Orfevre {Jpn}) carried 125 pounds to victory in last year's G3 Longines Red Sea Turf Cup H., but if he is to defend his title in the $2.5-million contest, he will need to tote 134 against a field in which G1 Grosser Preis von Berlin winner Simca Mille (Ire) (Tamayuz {GB}) is top-weighted at 136 pounds. The 3000-meter staying test has also attracted G2 Yorkshire Cup hero Giavellotto (Ire) (Mastercraftsman {Ire}, 133), Godolphin's group/graded winner Siskany (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}, 133), the Dermot Weld-trained 9-year-old G3 Loughbrown S. winner Falcon Eight (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}, 129), Enemy (GB) (Muhaarar {GB}, 126) and G3 Bahrain Trophy second Tower of London (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) for Ballydoyle.

The connections of Simca Mille could opt for the G2 Neom Turf Cup, a $2-million race over an extended mile and a quarter. John and Thady Gosden sent out Mostahdaf (GB) (Frankel {GB}) to a barnstorming win in last year's race and the father-and-son partnership has Tattersalls Autumn Horses in Training acquisition Jack Darcy (Ire) (Gleneagles {Ire}) engaged. Luxembourg holds a Neom Turf Cup entry, while narrow GI Breeders' Cup Mile runner-up Mawj (Ire) (Exceed and Excel {Aus}) has also been handed this stamina-stretching option by Saeed bin Suroor. Spirit Dancer (GB) (Frankel {GB}) could try to make it consecutive wins in the race for his sire, having most recently defeated the Gosdens' Israr (GB) (Muhaarar {GB}) and Point Lonsdale in the G2 Bahrain International Trophy back in November. American entries include Missed the Cut (Quality Road), unplaced when well-fancied last year, and the consistent Webslinger (Constitution).

America's Casa Creed (Jimmy Creed) has endured a pair of excruciating defeats in the 1351 Turf Cup and could return for a third attempt at the race, as he remains in training into an 8-year-old campaign in 2024. The globetrotting Bathrat Leon (Jpn) (Kizuna {Jpn}) dropped his head down on the line first in last year's race for trainer Yoshito Yahagi and could be back to defend his title against a group that could also include Saudi Arabia's Raaed (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire}), a cracking third last year, Godolphin's Real World (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire}), Amo Racing's Walbank (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}), an impressive handicap winner over 1200 metres at Meydan for George Boughey Jan. 5, and Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah), all-the-way winner of the GII Joe Hernandez S. for MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm at Santa Anita Dec. 30.

Japanese runners have proved formidable in the G3 Riyadh Dirt Sprint and a strong team includes Remake (Jpn) (Lani), who was a good third to the now-retired top American sprinters Elite Power (Curlin) and Gunite (Gun Runner) in the 1200-meter test last February. The North Hills homebred was last seen finishing runner-up to Igniter (Jpn) (Espoir City {Jpn}) in the valuable Listed JBC Sprint at Ohi Racecourse in November, and he also holds an entry. Speed Boat Beach could be re-routed for this shorter option, while other entries from the US include reigning G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen hero Sibelius (Not This Time), the in-form Bold Journey (Hard Spun) for 2023 winning conditioner Bill Mott, Forbidden Kingdom, Hejazi and recent Oaklawn allowance winner Skelly (Practical Joke). Last year's Saudi Derby winner Commissioner King (Commissioner) features among the local Sprint contingent.

Over 200 entries were taken for the G3 Saudi Derby going a metric mile on the dirt. Zedan Racing's 'TDN Rising Star' Muth (Good Magic), recent winner of the GII San Vicente S. for Bob Baffert, has been given an entry as has his Grade I-placed stable companion Wine Me Up (Vino Rosso) and San Vicente runner-up Pilot Commander (Justify). Yahagi's Group 3 winner and Group 1-placed Shin Emperor (Fr) (Siyouni {Fr}) holds an entry as does his stablemate Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}), who appears set to make the journey to the desert after convincingly defeating Aigle Noir (Jpn) (Bricks and Mortar) in the Listed Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun at Kawasaki last month. An intriguing possibility from the Weld yard is Taraj (Ire) (Churchill {Ire}), placed in one of two starts on the turf and a latest maiden winner going a mile over the Dundalk all-weather Nov. 24. Among the locals, Saudi Neom (Connect) is among the possibles, having run his record to two wins and a second from three runs with a victory over the Derby course and distance Jan. 6.

Top Qatari galloper Bolthole (Ire) (Free Eagle {Ire}), third in last year's Listed H. H. The Amir Trophy and winner of a Class 2 conditions race over 2000 metres at Al Rayyan Jan. 4 for Wathnan Racing and Alban de Mieulle, is the joint-highweight for the $500,000 Saudi International H. (90-110) over 2100 metres on the grass.

Click here for the full list of entries.

Breeders' Cup Classic winner White Abarrio and Preakness Stakes star, National Treasure feature among Saudi Cup entries:

See the full list here: https://t.co/8cUrqLW4La#SaudiCup #SaudiRacing pic.twitter.com/ScIi5JBPG1

— The Saudi Cup (@thesaudicup) January 11, 2024

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After spending 10 years in exile with a very well-documented suspension, trainer Rick Dutrow, Jr. is officially all the way back.

C2 Racing Stable and La Milagrosa Stable's White Abarrio (Race Day), a powerhouse last out winner of this summer's GI Whitney S. at Saratoga, ran to the money as the 5-2 favorite with a one-length victory for Dutrow in Saturday's $6-million GI Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita. The 64-year-old's three prior wins at the Championships were headed by future Horse of the Year Saint Liam in the 2005 Classic at Belmont Park. The New York-based Dutrow has been back training for seven months now.

“I don't feel that I am back at the top, but I feel that the white horse is,” said Dutrow, who also trained Big Brown to wins in the first two legs of the 2008 Triple Crown. “As soon as I get stables like Todd (Pletcher) and Chad (Brown), then I'll feel like I'm back on the top. I'm going to be calling everybody tomorrow when I get done with Disneyland and say, 'Hey, I am ready for some horses here.'”

Dutrow continued, “Right now, I just feel like I'm lucky to be around him. I feel he's on the top, and I love being around good horses like that. It just makes you feel like a good horseman, and that's always what I wanted to be.”

White Abarrio, drawn kindly in post two, secured a dream spot on the inside in third as 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo)–off as the 3-1 second choice off a game win against older horses in this summer's GI Pacific Classic S.–and GI Pennsylvania Derby hero Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming) absolutely tore through fractions of :22.46 and :45.73 in the 1 1/4-mile centerpiece.

Richard Dutrow, Jr. and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. celebrate after winning the GI Breeders' Cup Classic |
Benoit Photo

With Irad Ortiz, Jr., aboard, White Abarrio began to make his move on the far turn and attacked the top two while three wide nearing the quarter pole. Saudi Crown was the first to blink and White Abarrio had dead aim on the pacesetter at the top of the stretch. He switched his leads right on cue and blasted off for home for a no-doubt-about-it victory while never seriously threatened by Japanese invader and G2 UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits), who was making his first start since finishing sixth in the GI Kentucky Derby. Proxy (Tapit), a narrow second in the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup S., came rattling home to tag Arabian Knight by a neck for third.

“Everything came out perfect,” said the hot-handed Ortiz, Jr., who won his fifth Bill Shoemaker Award after guiding home three winners on Breeders' Cup Saturday. “We handicapped that race perfectly as we thought Saudi Crown and Arabian Knight would be on the lead and we should be third. I saved all the ground on the first turn and then I was able to get in the clear on the backside. After that, it's all about the horse. To be honest, I just let him do his thing and I don't get in his way. When I turned for him, I started to ride him and he kept responding.”

Transferred to Dutrow while former trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. was under fire this spring following a pair of high-profile horse deaths at Churchill Downs during Derby week, the 2022 GI Curlin Florida Derby winner and GI Cigar Mile H. third-place finisher produced a better-than-it-looked third-place finish after stumbling at the start in his first start for this barn in the GI Hill 'N' Dale Metropolitan H. at Belmont June 10. He had made only one other start since, earning a career-high 110 Beyer Speed Figure with Zandon (Upstart) and two-time GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Cody's Wish (Curlin) far back in second and third in the Whitney Aug. 5.

“Churchill Downs, we had an issue where they scratched our horse,” winning co-owner Mark Cornett said of the decision to change trainers. “NYRA decided they weren't going to accept the entries, nominations, and I wanted to run in the Met Mile.

He continued, “So I had to make a trainer switch. I've known Rick a long time. I know exactly what he's capable of. This horse was tailor made for him.”

Pedigree Notes:

White Abarrio, a $7,500 OBS Winter yearling turned $40,000 OBS March 2-year-old, is the lone graded winner for Race Day, a son of Tapit. Race Day previously stood at Spendthrift Farm in Kentucky, but was exported to Korea prior to the 2021 season. White Abarrio is one of four graded winners for the mighty Into Mischief as a broodmare sire.

The unplaced winner's dam Catching Diamonds, a $425,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase for Spendthrift, produced White Abarrio as her first foal. A half to MGSW-UAE and MSW-U.S. Cool Cowboy (Kodiak Kowboy) and to the dam of GSW Mutasaabeq (Into Mischief), the mare has an unraced 2-year-old colt named Diamond Lord (Lord Nelson), who fetched $155,000 from Lincoln Racing at last year's Keeneland September sale, and a yearling colt, also by Lord Nelson, who sold as a weanling at Keeneland November for $100,000 to Larry Hirsch. Her 2023 foal was a Yaupon filly born Apr. 15 and she was bred back to Constitution.

REPLAY: White Abarrio wins the $6 Million @LonginesEq #BreedersCup Classic! Congrats to all connections! #BC23 pic.twitter.com/9LCFP8T1Ny

— Breeders' Cup (@BreedersCup) November 4, 2023

LONGINES BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC-GI, $5,520,000, Santa Anita, 11-4, 3yo/up, 1 1/4m, 2:02.87, ft.
1–WHITE ABARRIO, 126, c, 4, by Race Day
        1st Dam: Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief
        2nd Dam: Grand Breeze, by Grand Slam
        3rd Dam: Breeze Lass, by It's Freezing
($7,500 Ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR). O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC; B-Spendthrift
Farm LLC (KY); T-Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.; J-Irad Ortiz, Jr. $3,120,000. Lifetime Record: 15-7-1-3, $4,946,350. Click for
the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Derma Sotogake (Jpn), 122, c, 3, Mind Your Biscuits–Amour Poesie (Jpn), by Neo Universe (Jpn). 1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. (¥18,000,000 Ylg '21 JRHAYF). O-Hiroyuki Asanuma; B-Shadai Farm (Jpn); T-Hidetaka Otonashi. $1,020,000.
3–Proxy, 126, h, 5, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include. O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Michael Stidham. $540,000.
Margins: 1, 1 1/4, NK. Odds: 2.60, 26.20, 17.40.
Also Ran: Arabian Knight, Ushba Tesoro (Jpn), Bright Future, Senor Buscador, Dreamlike, Zandon, Saudi Crown, Clapton, Missed the Cut. Scratched: Arcangelo. Click for the Equibase.com chart or the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by Fanduel TV.

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The bay colt, acquired for ¥5.5 million at the 2021 Hokkaido Summer Yearling Sale, had earned back his purchase price in easily running the table in three appearances as a juvenile and made a splashy return to the races in the Haneda Hai allowance May 10. In that 1800-meter affair, Mick Fire defeated heavily favoured Hero Call (Jpn) (Hokko Tarumae {Jpn}), who had previously accounted for future GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby runner-up Mandarin Hero in a similar test back in February.

Wednesday's ¥85 million ($606,730) Tokyo Derby over the metric mile and a quarter served as a course-and-distance allowance prep for the July 12 Listed Japan Dirt Derby, a race that could well attract those Japanese horses that plied their trade overseas earlier in the season, in addition to the highly progressive Yuttitham (Jpn) (Justify).

Sent off the 1-2 favorite in a 15-runner field that also included 5-2 second choice Hero Call, Mick Fire bounced well from the 12 hole and sat a stalking trip from the two path. Hero Call rolled up three deep outside of Mick Fire passing the three-furlong pole, but the latter was always going the better of the two, hit the front with a bit less than a quarter-mile to race and glided home a six-length winner in race-record time.

A son of the 20-year-old Sinister Minister, conditioned by Bob Baffert to a 12 3/4-length victory in the 2006 GI Toyota Blue Grass S., Mick Fire counts 1983 G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe heroine and U.S. Horse of the Year, three-time Grade I winner and inaugural GI Breeders' Cup Turf runner-up All Along (Fr) (Targowice) as his third dam.

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The biggest name among the Japanese horses set to run in the Derby is Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits), the runaway winner of the G2 UAE Derby. The Writers' Room's Randy Moss has made him 6-1 in his early line for the Derby. Can he win the Derby?

“I believe he's definitely one of the best 3-year-old horses on dirt in Japan,” Onikubo said. “But we don't really know because we don't have any benchmarks when it comes to comparing him to American horses. And it's a big ask, to come over and win the Kentucky Derby. We recently have had really successful results, on turf and on dirt and in the Breeders' Cup two years ago. But we haven't really had those successes previously. So it's still a big ask for Derma Sotogake. And I hope I'm wrong, but this will be really tough for him to do. There are a lot of things to overcome.”

Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) is next on the Japanese depth chart, but he may not get into the race because he currently does not have enough points to qualify. Nonetheless, his performance in the GI Santa Anita Derby, where he lost by just a nose to Practical Move (Practical Joke) was a big one. Mandarin Hero races in Japan at the National Association of Racing (NAR) tracks, which are considered inferior to the Japan Racing Association (JRA) tracks. So what does that say about Derma Sotogake, who, in Japan, is clearly regarded as the better horse of the two.

“It definitely was a surprising result,” Onikubo said of the Santa Anita Derby. “The JRA, that's division one, league A, and NAR is league two, division two. The primary leading trainers are basically all on the JRA circuit, and Mandarin Hero is not from JRA. He was coming from a NAR track and running in one of the best prep races for the Kentucky Derby, an international Grade I race on dirt and finished a very close second. That was a really surprising result, but it's an encouraging result as well.”

The third potential Japanese starter is Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong). He was third behind Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby but has made the Derby field because he won a “Win and You're In” race for the Derby in Japan. Onikubo said the best thing he has going for him is his trainer, Yoshito Yahagi. Yahagi was the mastermind behind the Japanese invasion of the 2021 Breeders' Cup, where he won two races. Loves Only You (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) won the GI Breeders' Cup Filly & Mate Turf.  Marche Lorraine (Jpn) (Orfevre {Jpn}) won the GI Breeders' Cup Distaff.

“He's trained by the master, Yoshito Yahagi, an internationally successful trainer with the two Breeders' Cup wins,” Onikubo said. “He's also won the Saudi Cup and he won the Cox Plate, so he's a really successful trainer on international stages. He seems to know something other trainers don't know.”

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by Coolmore,https://lanesend.com/  the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders,  1/st Racing, WinStar Farm and West Point Thoroughbreds, the team of Moss, Zoe Cadman, and Bill Finley took a look back at last weekend's biggest races, including the bounce-back race by Clairiere (Curlin) in the GI Apple Blossom H., which vaulted her back to the top of the older filly and mare division. Looking ahead, the team focused on the GII Oaklawn H., with all agreeing that it has assembled a top field worthy of Grade I status.

In off-the-track news, the trio talked about the fate of Turf Paradise and delved in an interesting story in the TDN by Dan Ross that shed some light on computer assisted wagering play in California and whether it is hurting the industry or not.

Click here to listen to the audio version of this podcast or click here to watch the video version.

The post Japanese Racing Journalist Toshi Onikubo Joins The TDN Writers’ Room Podcast appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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With exercise rider Masatoshi Segawa in the saddle, Derma Sotogake went through his routine 25-minute warm-up in the one-mile chute prior to beginning his work. The chestnut colt exited the chute and began galloping around the six-furlong pole. He started to pick up his momentum around the three-furlong pole and worked through fractions of :13 and :37.20, according to Churchill Downs clocker John Nichols.

“I am really happy with how he moved today,” Segawa said. “He felt great. We didn't want to go too fast today, so I had to keep a strong hold on him throughout and even then he performed brilliantly. Now I can start to get really excited about Derby Day.”

Derma Sotogake, most recently winner of the G2 UAE Derby, is stabled in Quarantine Barn 1 next to fellow Kentucky Derby contender Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong). Trained by Yoshito Yahagi and owned by Lion Race Horse Co. Ltd., Continuar had his most serious training to date Tuesday at Churchill Downs when he picked up his gallop around the seven-eighths pole to about the three-eighths pole. The training was slower than a published workout, but noticeably faster than a routine gallop.

The special 15-minute training window for only Kentucky Derby and Longines Kentucky Oaks contenders begins Saturday at 7:30 a.m. Kentucky Derby contenders will wear a yellow saddle towel while Oaks contenders will sport a pink saddle towel.

The post First Churchill Work for Derma Sotogake appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move has the distinction of being the only Derby contender this year to run two triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures at age three, earning a 100 in each of his last two wins, the GII San Felipe S. and the GI Santa Anita Derby.

Among all the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” qualifying races in 2022-23, this Tim Yakteen trainee also produced the two fastest final clockings at 1 1/16 miles (GII Los Alamitos Futurity and San Felipe), plus the quickest nine-furlong winning time (Santa Anita Derby).

Beyond the question of “how fast,” Practical Move rates highly from a “how he does it” perspective. Regular rider Ramon Vazquez should feel pretty confident he's on a colt who has enough tactical speed to be placed within the first flight and doesn't shy from slicing through tight inside passages. Practical Move's late-race torque is a proven commodity that he's used to his advantage in three consecutive rail-running victories.

Vazquez has had only one previous Derby mount, a trip-troubled 13th in 2015 aboard the 36-1 Mr. Z.

Although Practical Move's sire, Practical Joke, was a three-time Grade I winner in New York, he never won a two-turn race (fifth in the 2017 Derby). Maternal grandsire Afleet Alex, though, ran third in the 2005 Derby, then won both the GI Preakness S. and GI Belmont S.

Practical Move | Benoit

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte sports a daunting 6-for-7 career record and he hasn't had a single training setback at age three, winning the two prep races (GII Fountain of Youth S. and GI Florida Derby) that trainer Todd Pletcher said he would target after this tall, lanky colt won last November's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Peer closely at that past-performance block though, and you can see reasons why some handicappers will be willing to bet against this son of Violence on Derby Day.

Even if you don't believe in speed figures at their face-value level, it's concerning when any horse-let alone a divisional champion-regresses in his overall pattern from age two to three. Forte ran a 100 Beyer in the Juvenile, dipped to a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, then checked in with a 95 in the Florida Derby.

That Fountain of Youth slippage might be forgiven considering Forte prowled around the track like he knew he had the field at his mercy and was geared down in the final stages when his win was evident. The Florida Derby, though, featured robust early splits (it was the only nine-furlong prep this season in which the first three quarters were all clocked in sub-24 seconds). Yet when Forte unleashed his customary late kick, it came during a so-so final quarter in :25.72 and a tepid final eighth in :13.02.

Still, you have to respect that this is an A-level athlete who simply fires on the far turn every time out.

It's also noteworthy that Forte's three most visually appealing races (GI Breeders' Futurity, Juvenile, Fountain of Youth) all came over short-stretch configurations with the finish line at or near the sixteenth pole, a setup that does not traditionally favor horses kicking in from farther back. The Derby distance and Churchill's ample stretch both have the potential to work to Forte's advantage.

Forte | Lauren King

3) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Hit Show, a 3-for-5 Candy Ride (Arg) homebred for Gary and Mary West, has the distinction of going off favored in every one of his races. His three victories were open-length romps, and his only two losses were a second by a nose in the roughly run GII Wood Memorial (after overcoming post 12) and a fourth at age two in his first try against winners (when he bobbled at the break).

Although the two horses ranked above him-Practical Move and Forte-earned their spots based on proven ability, Hit Show is more of a speculative selection based on the assumption that he'll offer significantly overlaid value while being primed to peak on Derby Day.

Hit Show is a May 9 foal. Although exact foaling date records are sketchy prior to 1940, 11 known May foals have won the Derby dating to 1875. The most recent two were Authentic in 2020 (who won a Derby that was run in September) and Country House in 2019 (who crossed the wire second but was elevated to the win because of the disqualification of Maximum Security).

4) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP), like Hit Show, also won't technically turn three until after the Derby (May 11). But he ran a “wise beyond his age” second in the GI Blue Grass S., beaten only a neck after twice clawing back the lead in a heavyweight stretch smackdown with No. 5-ranked 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice (Tapit).

This Justify colt is a half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou. Beyond the Triple Crown-winning cachet atop his pedigree, Verifying's female family includes some overlooked nuggets. Damsire Repent was a hard-charging early favorite for the 2002 Derby before getting derailed from the Triple Crown series by an ankle injury. And Repent's sire, Louis Quatorze, wired the 1996 GI Preakness S.

A decent post draw and a clean break almost certainly puts Verifying in the hunt for the lead in the Derby, an obvious plus considering eight of the past nine Derbies have been won by horses either on the front end or forcing the issue.

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice “takes a little while to get going,” according to jockey Luis Saez. But once he picks up steam, look out. He rolled to victory from off the tailgate in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby, and looked beaten on the far turn of the Blue Grass S. before relentlessly reeling in Verifying to win a length-of-stretch battle.

Tapit Trice closed with gusto through a final furlong in :12.40, the fastest final eighth in the Blue Grass since Keeneland switched back to dirt in the fall of 2014. Even more impressive is that he launched his sustained move six furlongs out, which no other competitor on the Derby trail has come close to doing this season.

This gray son of Tapit ($1.3 million at KEESEP) has come around horses in all four of his victories. But his wide-and-driving tactics, combined with his propensity for dawdling at the break, could work against him in a 20-horse Derby.

Even though the two are built differently, consider a comparison to Essential Quality, another 'Rising Star' gray who was favored in the 2021 Derby and also ridden by Saez.

The juvenile champ went into the Derby undefeated after similarly making big, outside moves. Like Tapit Trice, Essential Quality's final prep was the Blue Grass, and it, too, featured a demanding stretch duel through the previously fastest Blue Grass final eighth in the new-dirt era (:12.53).

In the Derby, Essential Quality got off slowly, then Saez kept him four wide on both turns in an effort to avoid getting jammed inside. The colt rallied, but his fourth-place try lacked the spark of previous tries. The tough last prep didn't help him, and the lost ground definitely hurt him. Essential Quality skipped the GI Preakness. S., then won the GI Belmont S., GII Jim Dandy S. and GI Travers S. in succession.

Regardless of whether you think that sort history will repeat with Tapit Trice, you at least have to factor in those tactical similarities when assessing whether or not banking on a closer who gives himself so much extra work to do is a sound bet in a crowded, chaotic race like the Derby.

Tapit Trice | Coady

6) SKINNER (c, Curlin-Winding Way, by Malibu Moon) O-C R K Stable; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-John Shirreffs. Sales history: $40,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $510,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 6-1-0-3, $216,300. Last start: 3rd GI Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Skinner still needs two defections to make the qualifying cut. But I can see him emerging as a “wiseguy” horse at over 30-1 if he gets in.
To arrive at that conclusion, you have to buy into the benefits of the patient, confidence-building training methodology of John Shirreffs, and basically put a line through Skinner's uninspiring race results at age two.

Instead, focus on his progression at age three, which includes a mile maiden win followed by a pair of thirds over increasing distances behind No. 1-ranked Practical Move, the latter punctuated by a purposeful, three-furlong late kick.

All three efforts generated strong Beyers (95-94-99) that leave room for improvement. There's also the been-there-done that factor, based on John Shirreffs's 50-1 Derby upset with Giacomo in 2005, and jockey Victor Espinoza's three Derby wins with War Emblem (2002), California Chrome (2014) and American Pharoah (2015).

7) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

This 3-for-3 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) projected to control the tempo in the GII Louisiana Derby, and he did just that, leading at every call through very moderate fractions (:24.71, 49.50, 1:14.69, 1:39.13) and light pressure. The effort earned a 95 Beyer, a decent number despite the 1:57.33 clocking for 1 3/16 miles being the slowest in four years since that stakes got elongated from nine furlongs.

Still, the win represents capable advancement through only 10 weeks of racing experience, and the overall trend for the undefeated Kingsbarns shows no regression (74-85-95 Beyers). Beyond what he's shown on paper, this is a no-nonsense colt who goes about his business without drama, and he's already handled shipping to and racing over three very different dirt surfaces (Gulfstream, Tampa, Fair Grounds).

Only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby: Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924.

8) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Reincarnate is a glass half empty/half full proposition. Winless since his Jan. 8 GIII Sham S., his Beyers share a similar in-decline pattern over three races as Forte's (95-90-86), and his no-impact third in the Arkansas Derby doesn't supply much next-race momentum.
Yet this long-striding $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic has never been out of the money from seven starts, all at a mile or longer, and he gives the impression of a contender who should be finishing better than his running lines suggest.

Jockey John Velazquez said three months ago that Reincarnate was “still learning how to run” and tended to wait on other horses once he made the lead. His speed-centric style should give him the advantage of being forwardly placed and potentially ahead of trip trouble in the Derby, but you'd better hold out for a sizable mutuel before banking on that investment.

9) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 3rd in the GIII Lexington S. at Keeneland Apr. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 46.

All that 'TDN Rising Star' Disarm had to do in Saturday's GIII Lexington S. was run third to secure the six qualifying points that would put him into the Derby, and jockey Jose Ortiz made sure the colt did just that. Unless it was obvious this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred was going to blow by the field under his own power, everyone knew going into the race there would be no sense in asking Disarm for too strenuous an effort in the interest of keeping him fresh for May 6.

Disarm broke okay then was briefly squeezed back entering the first turn. The momentum loss wasn't serious, and he took up the chase seventh onto the backstretch, incrementally edging his way toward the top by the time the field hit the far turn.

Disarm responded when asked for a test-drive spurt of energy that propelled him to third at the top of the lane. But Ortiz realized he wasn't going to catch the dueling duo up front (especially with Keeneland's short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles ending at the sixteenth pole), so he wisely kept Disarm to task just enough win the “race within the race,” securing show by three-quarters of a length.

No wins at age three and having never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles aren't ideal. But those circumstances were dictated by Disarm having been out of action between August and February. A bet on him in the Derby is essentially a wager that his Gun Runner (out of a Tapit mare) bloodlines are going to put him over the top at 10 furlongs.

10) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Trainer Brad Cox has secured the services of jockey Flavien Prat to ride Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) in the Derby. Prat, currently tops in the nation with 15 graded stakes wins in 2023, had piloted both Angel of Empire and No. 7-ranked Kingsbarns in their respective final preps.

Prat has ridden in five Derbies and finished in the money four times. In 2019 he rode Country House, who was declared the 65-1 winner via disqualification of Maximum Security. Prat was also third at 40-1 with Battle of Midway in 2017, second with Hot Rod Charlie at 5-1 in 2021, and third with Zandon at 6-1 in 2022.

Angel of Empire is 4-for-6 lifetime and at his best when given front-end targets to track down. Although his GII Risen Star S. win (89 Beyer) could be attributed him benefitting from a pace meltdown, this colt's Oaklawn score (94 Beyer) was noticeably more assertive, with this Pennsylvania-bred decisively overpowering the pacemaker.

Angel of Empire | Coady

11) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

Two Phil's ($150,000 RNA KEESEP), the 101-Beyer winner of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, is 4-for-8 closer/stalker who rates highly in terms of versatility and adaptability.

Off as the 2.8-1 second choice in the Jeff Ruby, Two Phil's broke alertly, rated kindly, then was content to be parked outside while sixth down the backstretch. He gathered momentum four deep through the far turn, then shadowed the favorite as the two jointly accosted the pacemaker at the head of the stretch. Two Phil's deftly shrugged off the fave, then chugged for the wire under his own power, with no one seriously challenging.

But this son of Hard Spun does own a 5 1/4-length win at 7-1 odds over a sloppy, sealed Churchill dirt track in the Oct. 30 GIII Street Sense S., which could mean his connections will be doing a rain dance come Derby week.

Two Phil's | Coady

12) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

Mage, who celebrates a birthday Apr. 18, is still without a committed Derby rider as of this writing. This son of Good Magic popped with an encouraging second in the Florida Derby, launching a big, far-turn bid, repulsing a stern stretch drive from the eventual third-place horse, but still being no match for the vastly more experienced winner Forte.

The conundrum facing Derby bettors centers on whether that 94-Beyer improvement represents the ceiling for Mage or if it is just a sneak preview of a higher phase of his development.

Mage's company lines from his Jan. 28 MSW win at Gulfstream got a boost over the weekend. The runner- up in that race, Bourbon Resolve (Hard Spun) came back to win a MSW route at Keeneland as the favorite.

The fourth-place finisher, Perform (Good Magic), who had already won his subsequent start at 7-10 odds at Tampa back on Mar. 11, won again at Laurel, capturing the Federico Tesio S. by a head at 10-1 odds.

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate:

13) Lord Miles
Lord Miles (Curlin) broke his maiden by 5 ¾ lengths sprinting at Gulfstream. Then he ran third in the one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man S., beaten only three-quarters of a length. Stretched out to two turns to take advantage of his stout, female-family bloodlines (A.P. Indy, Seeking the Gold), Lord Miles then drew the rail in both the GIII Holy Bull S. and the Tampa Bay Derby, encountering trouble at the start on both occasions while sixth and fifth. He was bumped at the break in the Wood Memorial too, but overcame it to force the issue, drop back, then re-rally to charge home to a $120 victory in a roughly ridden, three-way stretch fight.

14) Derma Sotogake (Jpn)
When Derma Sotogake (Jpn) wired the G2 UAE Derby, it marked the first group winner for Mind Your Biscuits, the Grade I and Group 1-winning sprinter from five or six years back whose last stateside triumph was a successful stretch-out to nine furlongs in the 2018 GIII Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs. This ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL yearling orchestrated a comfortable, 5 1?2-length score in that 1 3/16-miles Meydan stakes, leading home a Japan-based 1-2-3-4 finish. Since 2000, 12 winners of the UAE Derby have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby, and the best finish among them was sixth (along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try). But times are changing, as Japanese horses are increasingly stamping themselves as worthy global competitors at racing's top levels. Getting too mired in past results might be a mistake in prognosticating how Derma Sotogake will fare in this year's edition.

15) Rocket Can
After Rocket Can (Into Mischief) ran a lackluster fourth as the beaten fave in the Arkansas Derby, trainer Bill Mott surmised that this $245,000 FTSAUG RNA gray has the ability to do better, but “he's just not quite giving it all” yet. A bullet half-mile over the Churchill strip in :46.60 (1/34) last Thursday might be a step toward bringing about an attitude adjustment, but Rocket Can is generally a sharp work horse anyway, having routinely posted bullets at Payson Park over the winter. He has five route races leading up to the Derby, and he earned style points in most of them as a punch-above-his-weight type of stalker. But the poorest try among them was over nine furlongs at Oaklawn, leading to realistic concerns about whether 10 furlongs will be within his scope. Churchill does seem to be Rocket Can's preferred surface. He broke his maiden there back on Oct. 30 and was second, beaten just a half-length, in a Nov. 26 allowance.

16) Sun Thunder
Trainer Kenny McPeek described Sun Thunder as a Derby “fringe horse” in a Daily Racing Form interview last week, and that label fits. This late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) was fourth, 6 ½ lengths off Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass S. He still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks, but he's run second, fourth (twice), and fifth in graded stakes against decent company through a winter/spring campaign. He is going to need help both pace-wise and trip-wise in the Derby while also having to find at least another 14 or 15 points on the Beyer scale to be in it to win it (he's twice maxxed out at 89).

17) Jace's Road
Prior to last Saturday, Jace's Road barely made the qualifying cutoff. But Disarm's six-points third in the Lexington S. knocked him back onto the also-eligible list. A $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, this colt ran a non-threatening third in the Louisiana Derby, and the best race on his résumé is still the 90-Beyer Dec. 26 wiring of the Gun Runner S. Jace's Road's status as an early 'TDN Rising Star' whose form has taken a hit reminds me a little bit of fellow Brad Cox trainee Mandaloun, who was also a 'Rising Star' and had a subpar final prep in the 2021 Louisiana Derby. Mandaloun reawakened with a 26-1 second in the Kentucky Derby, then subsequently was upgraded to the win because of the still-under-appeal drug DQ of Medina Spirit.

18) Confidence Game
Confidence Game, the 18-1 upsetter of the Rebel S., registered a 94-Beyer win by getting third run at wilting leaders. This $25,000 KEESEP Candy Ride (Arg) colt was initially slated for one more prep, but in March trainer Keith Desormeaux said it took Confidence Game “a little longer than usual to recover.” There was speculation he'd enter this past Saturday's Lexington S., but he instead breezed a mile from the gate on Friday in 1:38.20 (1/1). Now Confidence Game will head to the Derby off a 70-day layoff and never having run beyond 1 1/16 miles. Since 1929 (the advent of complete records), the longest winning layoff for a regularly scheduled Derby in May was 42 days, equaled by Needles (1956) and Animal Kingdom (2011).

19) Continuar (Jpn)
The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) was third and beaten 10 lengths by Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby. In their three common races, Derma Sotogake now has two wins over Continuar (the other was by a nose in a Nov. 6 handicap at Hanshin). Derma Sotogake was also third ahead of Continuar (fifth) in the G3 Saudi Derby. This ¥70,000,000 JRHJUL yearling's most recent victory was in the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26. Stateside fans will recall his sire, Drefong, as the Bob Baffert-trained champion sprinter in 2016.

20) Wild On Ice
Every Derby needs a massive, small-circuit-based longshot as a rooting interest, and Wild On Ice (Tapizar) fits the bill this year. The 35-1 winner of the GIII Sunland Derby in New Mexico has 60-year-old jockey Ken Tohill poised to become the oldest rider ever to compete in the Kentucky Derby. In the Sunland Derby, this Texas-bred homebred for Frank Sumpter stalked two front-running favorites who had shipped in from Santa Anita, and when the invaders dueled themselves into defeat, Wild On Ice opportunistically picked up the pieces for a 77-Beyer, 1 ¼-length score.

Note: Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) was ranked at No. 11 here last week but has now dropped to the 25th spot in qualifying points. Because of his diminished chances at making it into the main body of the race, he got relegated out of the TDN Top 20. Two horses who are currently inside the qualifying cut–Raise Cain (Violence) and Blazing Sevens (Good Magic)–are also not listed in this week's write-up.

The post TDN Derby Top 20: The Waiting is the Hardest Part appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Which meant there was room for improvement and that he had to getter better. It happened. In Saturday's GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland, this was a much better version of Tapit Trice. He looked like a horse that can beat stablemate Forte (Violence) and everyone else in the Derby.

It was evident from the start. At Tampa, Tapit Trice walked out of the gate and was so sluggish early on that he found himself in last within four or five strides of the horses leaving the gate. Down the backstretch, he was 11th out of 12 and 8 1/4 lengths behind the leader. In the Blue Grass, he broke with the field, losing nothing at the start. He still didn't have the type of speed that could carry him to the front, but neither would he sluggishly drop back. At the first point of call in the Blue Grass, he was fourth, just 2 1/2 lengths off of the lead being set by Clear the Air (Ransom the Moon).

In the Tampa Bay Derby, jockey Luis Saez figured out early on that he needed to get close to the leaders. At the half-mile pole, he already had Tapit Trice under a drive and, at least initially, got no response. It was a much different scenario in the Blue Grass. Beginning in the run down the backstretch, Tapit Trice made a sharp move and seemed to be doing it on his own. He went from eighth to fourth in a matter of about 40 yards.

Tapit Trice looked beaten on the far turn at Tampa and didn't do any real running until the final eighth. It was good enough for the win, which came over Classic Car Wash (Noble Bird). Note that he beat the same horse by 16 1/2 lengths in the Blue Grass.

Fast forward four weeks and Tapit Trice continued to make progress until drawing even with Verifying (Justify) at the top of the Blue Grass stretch. Verifying comes out of the loaded Brad Cox barn, finished second in the GI Champagne S. and romped in an Oaklawn allowance before finishing fourth in the GII Rebel S. He was a worthy foe and he put up a fight. Tapit Trice got by him in the final sixteenth, showing the type of determination that is important in any race and extra important in the Kentucky Derby.

This time his Beyer number was a 99. That's just two points behind Two Phil's (Hard Spun), whose 101 Beyer from the Jeff Ruby Steaks is best among horses headed to the Derby. It's also faster than any number Forte has ever run.

That doesn't mean that Tapit Trice has to win the Derby. It does mean that, after the Blue Grass, he has to be considered a major contender. He's fast enough and has the right pedigree. But most importantly, he'll come in to the race off of the best performance of his career and everything points to him continuing to get better.

At Santa Anita, Another Big Effort Out of a Japanese Horse

Practical Move (Practical Joke) won the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby Saturday, which was a surprise to no one. After his win the in GII San Felipe S., he looked like the best 3-year-old in California.

But what not many expected was the huge effort by runner-up Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby), who finished second, losing by just a nose. Even with all the success Japanese horses have had around the globe of late, it looked like Mandarin Hero was up against it at Santa Anita. While he was 4-for-5 lifetime, he had been racing on Japan's National Association of Racing (NAR) circuit. The NAR circuit is the lesser circuit in Japan and the horses that race at those tracks are supposed to be inferior to the horses who run at the Japan Racing Association (JRA) tracks.

So, if Mandarin Hero from the NAR can come that close to beating one of the top 3-year-old colts in the U.S., what does that say about Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits), who looked so good when winning the G2 UAE Derby? Derma Sotogake, who also finished third in the G3 Saudi Derby, came to the Middle East after winning three straight at JRA tracks.

The Japanese will also be represented by Continuar (Jpn) (Drefrong). A JRA horse, he earned an automatic spot in the Derby with his win in the Cattleya S. He was third, beaten 10 lengths, by Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby.

As for Mandarin Hero, he may not get into the Derby. With 40 points, he currently sits 24th on the points standings for the race and will need a few defections to get in.

A Stunner in the Wood Memorial

There are too many Kentucky Derby prep races and not enough top 3-year-olds to go around, so one of the races had to suffer. And it's the GII Wood Memorial. For decades it was one of the most important prep races for the Derby, but is now mired in a slump that goes back 20 years. The last Wood starter to win the Derby was Funny Cide (Distorted Humor) in 2003. Since then, 40 Wood starters have run in the Derby and not one crossed the wire among the top three. In 2019, Wood winner Tacitus (Tapit) was awarded third due to the disqualification of Maximum Security.

In 2017, the Wood Memorial was deservedly downgraded to a Grade II.

Things don't figure to change this year. It was an exciting race with three horses separated by a nose and a head at the wire, but not a race that should inspire much confidence when it comes to the top three. Not when the race was won by a 59-1 shot in Lord Miles (Curlin). He was a dull sixth on the GIII Holy Bull S. and didn't do much better when fifth, beaten 5 3/4 lengths by Tapit Trice in the Tampa Bay Derby. He looks like a 50-1 shot in the Derby.

Back at Keeneland, Another Big Win for the Computer Players

We've all seen it happen hundreds of times, the odds plunge on a horse after the gates open and the horse goes on to win. But it's not something anyone should grow complacent about, not when the sport has no answer to the problem that is the computer players pouring huge sums into the pools at the very last second.

There was a glaring example of this Saturday at Keeneland in the GIII Commonwealth S. With the field loaded, eventual winner Here Mi Song (Cross Traffic) was 19-1. About five seconds after the field left the gate, his odds fell to 12-1. Then, 32 seconds after the start of the race, his odds changed again, falling to 11-1. He paid $25.60, yet I imagine any normal player who had a win bet on him felt more cheated than victorious.

It's time for more tracks to do what NYRA did, which was to effectively ban the computer players from the win pools. That won't keep them from pounding the other pools, but will take care of the problem of having their core customers grow irate every time a horse goes on to win after their odds plummeted after the race has started.

NY Horseplayers Shut Out Again on Easter

We've got the dumbest rule in horse racing for you. In New York on Easter, you can buy alcohol at a store or go to a bar. You can play the lottery, wager on pro sports and go to a casino. You can even go to the Resort's World casino in Queens, which is under the same roof as Aqueduct. But you can't bet on a horse.

It's not just that the New York tracks can't race on Easter. It's that all betting on all racing is shut down. The ADW customer is not allowed to place a bet on any tracks anywhere. Like someone in the fourth at Gulfstream? Too bad.

This goes back to 1973 when Sunday racing was legalized in New York, but several politicians were opposed to this based on religious reasons. In order to pass Sunday racing, a compromise had to be reached and it included not allowing any betting on the ponies on Easter and Palm Sunday. In 2015, the Palm Sunday ban was lifted, but not the Easter ban. It lives on, as ridiculous as it is.

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