1) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-4-2-0, $1,504,100. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

On Apr. 2, three days after Muth's two-length score in the GI Arkansas Derby, trainer Bob Baffert confirmed that this 4-for-6 'TDN Rising Star' is Baltimore-bound for the May 18 GI Preakness S.

“My plan's always been, if he ran well [in Arkansas], we're just pointing him for the Preakness,” Baffert told the Oaklawn media team.

Then the very next day, Muth's owner, Zedan Racing Stables, filed a lawsuit in a Kentucky court with the aim of overturning Churchill Downs's corporate ban of Baffert so that Muth (and possibly other horses trained by Baffert) could run in the Kentucky Derby.

We'll leave the ongoing debate about Baffert's Derby eligibility to the judge for the purposes of this writeup.

The assessment still stands that this son of Good Magic ($190,000 KEESEP, $2 million OBSMAR) is the most consistent and reliable contender at the top of the crop, and he looms as a major threat to blossom into a dominant divisional force. Muth's chief attribute is speed-oriented athleticism fused with a straightforward way of doing whatever has to be done to win.

Baffert said Muth's trip from Santa Anita to Oaklawn “was good for him. First time shipping was important. He ran well. Everything went smoothly for him. He looked great in the stretch. Distance is not going to be a problem for him, so that was very encouraging. A mile and an eighth, I've always felt, really starts to separate them. It was a very tough, competitive race.”

2) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-3-1-0, $918,000. Last start: WON Apr. 6 GI Blue Grass S.

In Saturday's GI Blue Grass S., 'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) built up serious momentum with one of his customary off-the-tailgate runs to mow down the competition.

Although he's still not the most polished version of the racehorse his potential and pedigree suggest he will be, this $2.3 million FTSAUG sale-topper has enough raw, off-pace power to establish his status as the top-ranked closer in his class.

After being reluctant to load into the outermost post in front of a lively Keeneland crowd that caught his attention, this Chad Brown trainee broke without incident and was dropped down next to the fence at the back of the pack by Tyler Gaffalione. With stablemate Top Conor (Twirling Candy) establishing an ambitious tempo up front, Sierra Leone waited patiently at the rear, settling unto a rhythmic stride before beginning to unfurl five furlongs out.

Gaffalione sliced him between two rivals nearing the far turn, then popped outside to pick off the mid-pack stragglers. Although still exhibiting a tendency to lean in during his stretch runs like he's shown since age two, Sierra Leone did respond to being roused, and you get the feeling he would have easily shouldered aside any rival who dared get in his way. He won by 1 1/2 lengths and finished up the final sixteenth with his ears pricked forward, indicating he was eager for more.

Sierra Leone's 98 Beyer was a tricky fig to make considering there was only one other main-track route race at Keeneland that afternoon.

Despite being visually arresting, the timing of Sierra Leone's finish was on the tepid side. While the early part of the Blue Grass featured revved-up opening quarter-mile splits of :23.15 and :23.33, Sierra Leone closed ground through a final furlong clocked in :13.43. That's the slowest last eighth among all nine points-awarding Derby preps run at 1 1/8 miles in 2023-24.

3) FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) (c, Reel Steel {Jpn}–Forever Darling, by Congrats). O-Susumu Fujita; B-Northern Racing; T-Yoshito Yahagi. Sales History: ¥98,000,000 Ylg '22 JRHAJUL. Lifetime Record: 5-5-0-0, $2,049,451. Last start: WON Mar. 30 G2 UAE Derby.

The 5-for-5 Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) raced outermost to win the Feb. 24 one-turn mile G3 Saudi Derby with a long, well-timed drive. He was then parked in the four path on both turns to prevail in the G2 UAE Derby over 1900 meters Mar. 30.

For the most part, those ground-conceding tactics have been by design to keep Forever Young from being pelted by kickback from horses in front of him. His connections are on record as saying that the colt dislikes the dirt spray, and he was equipped with a sort of facemask (like blinkers without the cups) in his last race at Meydan.

Is Forever Young's aversion to kickback a reason to discount his chances in the Kentucky Derby? Probably not if you otherwise like his chances. In any given 20-horse Derby, we end up hearing plenty of post-race comments from the trainers of also-rans stating how their horses just couldn't handle the kickback. Some horses persevere through it, some don't and some are race-to-race about how they handle it.

Plus, it isn't like Forever Young, who sold for the equivalent of $720,603 at the JRHA Select Yearling and Foal sale, has never dealt with dirt before. He won three times in Japan at age two despite being in spots where he was forced to take at least some kickback.

In his Oct. 14 maiden win, Forever Young was buried behind the first-flight wall of horses before bursting through near the inside rail. Against stakes company Nov. 3, he was covered up toward the rear for most of the trip before tipping outside to win going away. And on Dec. 13, Forever Young raced just off the heels of the pacemaker before punching past on the far turn to romp by seven lengths.

4) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, MGISW, 5-3-0-1, $1,703,850. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Curlin Florida Derby.

With this past weekend's final nine-furlong prep races yielding wins by two stalkers and one closer, Fierceness's stock upticked because he now looms as the most legitimate speed threat among horses pointing for the Derby.

But bettors in the latest pool for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager–which closed Saturday prior to any of those stakes being run–apparently didn't need to know that bit of pace information before staunchly backing Fierceness. He was established as the 5-2 favorite, a pre-race price that could end up being lower than the 2-year-old champ's actual mutuel odds 3 1/2 weeks from now on Derby Day.

This Repole Stable homebred by City of Light heads to Louisville off a hammer-dropping, 13 1/4-length pasting of an underwhelming GI Curlin Florida Derby field. The impressive 110 Beyer Speed Figure he earned is five points faster than any other number put up by a sophomore so far this year.

But realists will legitimately question the figure's face value considering Fierceness established an all-his-own-way cadence without having to fight hard for the lead or repulse any serious stretch bids.

Eight of the last 10 horses to cross the finish wire first in the Derby have raced on or near the lead. If Fierceness can establish control early, he avoids a lot of potential trouble simply by being out ahead of the first-turn scrum that is an inherent risk in any 20-horse Derby.

Fierceness | Benoit

5) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L and N Racing LLC, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-2-1, $405,000. Last start: 4th in Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

Track Phantom has been sporting blinkers in the mornings at Churchill Downs in preparation for wearing them for the first time in the Kentucky Derby.

Trainer Steve Asmussen told Daily Racing Form's Marcus Hersch last week that “The blinkers are for what he did from the quarter pole to the wire last time, not what he does in the morning.”

Asmussen was referring to this $500,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road setting a moderate pace in the GII Louisiana Derby, then fading to fourth in deep stretch.

Track Phantom has won three of seven starts, all at a mile or longer, and he consistently breaks well enough to lead the pack, despite often getting disadvantaged by outside draws. He has experience in fighting off rivals in the stretch, and even though this colt isn't always on the winning end, he has gained valuable experience.

According to DRF's Formulator tool, Asmussen's win percentage with all starters over the past five years is 18%. His 205 trainees adding blinkers for the first time during that time frame won 15% of the time. On five occasions in the past five years, Asmussen has tried first-time blinkers on a Grade I starter. None have won, with the best finish among them a second by Disarm (Gun Runner) in the 2023 GI Travers S.

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-2-0, $552,275. Last start: 4th in the GI Blue Grass S. Apr. 6

Dornoch's punchless fourth in the Blue Grass S. is a little easier to make sense of moving forward knowing his connections weren't satisfied with the experiment of rating him off the pace, and that trainer Danny Gargan plans on changing tactics back to letting this colt freewheel on the front end in the Derby.

This $325,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic, who is a full brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage, broke running from post four, but Luis Saez had a handful trying to keep his colt under wraps around the first turn. Dornoch was pegged down at the rail in fourth for most of his trip and had only a mild response when asked to pick it up around the far bend. He briefly ran up on the heels of a rival in front of him three-sixteenths from home, then drifted out towards the onrushing Sierra Leone, who blew by Dornoch in upper stretch with zero resistance.

“He got in there behind,” Gargan said. “It's his first time really getting a lot of dirt like that, he resented it a little bit early, Luis said. He said he kind of ran away from the horses. [Dornoch was] a little bit stuck in there. Next time, we'll break him out of [the gate on the lead] and keep his face clean, and he'll run better next time. There's no pressure now. We're going to go over [to Gargan's hometown of Louisville] and have fun.”

7) IMAGINATION (c, Into Mischief–Magical Feeling, by Empire Maker) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan & Tom Ryan; B-Peter Blum Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,050,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-3-0, $406,800. Last start: 2nd in the GI Santa Anita Derby Apr. 6.

Imagination was a narrowly-beaten second in Saturday's GI Santa Anita Derby. The fact that he forced the issue through a quick opening quarter (:22.72), went after the leader on the far turn, then held the lead for most of the stretch while taking constant pressure from eventual winner Stronghold (Ghostzapper) gives his effort an edge in terms of performance under duress–even though he didn't come out on the winning end of the photo.

In fact, it's now three straight route races in which this $1.05-million KEESEP colt by Into Mischief has hooked up in prolonged late-race fights. One was a win in the Grade II San Felipe S., the two others were neck losses.

“We jumped good and we had a good pace,” said jockey Franke Dettori, noting that pressure from an outside rival turning onto the backstretch meant he pushed Imagination “a little bit earlier than I wanted to.

“In the stretch I was vulnerable for a closer,” Dettori said. “When [Stronghold] passed us, my horse kept fighting back. We were head and head, and he was too strong for me down the line.”

Imagination is now 2-4-0 from six lifetime starts. Trainer Bob Baffert has not publicly declared next-race plans.

8) Just a Touch (c, Justify-Touching Beauty, by Tapit) O-Qatar Racing LLC, Resolute Racing & Marc Detampel; B-Don Alberto Corp. (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $170,000 RNA '22 KEESEP; $125,000 yrl '22 FTKOCT; $300,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $281,700. Last start: 2nd in GI Blue Grass S. Apr. 6

The second-place effort by Just a Touch in Saturday's Blue Grass S. was commendable on several levels.

This son of Justify ($170,000 RNA KEESEP, $125,000 FTKOCT, $300,000 OBSAPR) gets credit for attending a fast pace, then wresting control of the lead from the three-sixteenths marker until just before the sixteenth pole. When Sierra Leone torqued by him, Just A Touch was tiring but not folding, and he galloped out more or less on even terms with the winner.

That performance rates additional credibility considering it was only the third lifetime start and first race around two turns for Just a Touch. And this is a colt who also won't hit his third birthday until the day after the Kentucky Derby.

“The pace was a bit quicker than I thought it would be,” said jockey Florent Geroux. “Turning for home, I thought I had it, but was just taken down by Sierra Leone. My horse had a good finish to be second. He ran a good race against really good horses.”

Trainer Brad Cox explained that Just a Touch is “going to have to move forward in the next four weeks. Colts can do that. If he moves forward, he will be able to compete in the Derby.”

9) RESILIENCE (c, Into Mischief-Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike) O-Emily Bushnell & Ric Waldman; B-Pam & Martin Wygod (KY); T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-1-1, $494,630. Last start: WON Apr. 6 GI Wood Memorial S.

Resilience, an Into Mischief colt out of a Smart Strike mare, leapfrogged into Derby relevance with a 2 1/4-length stalking victory (90 Beyer) in Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct.

Off at 9-2 odds and adding blinkers for the first time, this Bill Mott trainee broke fluidly from the rail under John Velazquez, then conceded the lead while in a touch tight at the fence through the clubhouse turn.

Resilience enjoyed a no-excuse, ground-saving trip behind sparring 52-1 and 80-1 shots on the front end. Velazquez edged him off the rail 4 1/2 furlongs out, then commenced to chipping away at the leaders' margin through the far bend before collaring those spent rivals at the quarter pole.

There was a spill in upper stretch behind Resilience, but it did not appear to hamper any serious threats to his lead. This colt willingly stayed on late to outfinish 106-1 and 38-1 long shots.

“We broke really well, which was what we wanted to do,” Velazquez said. “He got a little bit aggressive, more than I wanted to in the first part. Then I put him out and he kind of relaxed better on the outside of horses. The reason we put blinkers on is because he's kind of hesitant in passing the horses. So, I kind of engaged him a little bit early to see if he'd pass horses and he passed them. Then I was like, 'Oh, man I might've broken a little too soon.' Then he just kept me busy down the lane.”

Resilience | Sarah Andrew

10) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution–Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $877,350. Last start: WON Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

This Constitution colt ($575,000 KEESEP) is now one breeze into a series of four planned workouts before starting in the Derby, where he's likely to be mid-priced in the betting and expected to close from off the pace.

“He's settled in nicely since we shipped him back to Churchill from Fair Grounds,” trainer Brad Cox said after training on Friday. “He was impressive [winning] from that far back in the Louisiana Derby and I think the longer stretch at Churchill, plus the mile-and-a-quarter, should only help him in the Derby.”

Catching Freedom is a medium-framed stayer, and ever since he got on the Derby radar with a grind-'em-down win in the Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Jan. 1, Cox has reiterated that this colt won't be wowing anyone with his morning workouts.

So the key to figuring out whether you want to back him or beat him in the Derby is going to have to rely more or race-to-race assessment rather than how Catching Freedom trains over the next 3 1/2 weeks. His Beyer progression has been 72-77-87-87-97.

11) JUST STEEL (c, Justify–Irish Lights {Aus}, by Fastnet Rock {Aus}). O-BC Stables, LLC; B-Summerhill Farm (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Sales History: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 11-2-4-1, $724,545. Last start: 2nd Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

Even though he's an outlier likely to go off north of 30-1, you don't have to squint too hard at Just Steel's past performances to make a case for this D. Wayne Lukas trainee.

This $500,000 KEESEP son of 2018 Triple Crown champ Justify has a bedrock (by today's standards) foundation of 11 starts leading up to Louisville. On three occasions at age three, he's finished second around two turns in points-awarding prep stakes, and the one time he didn't, Just Steel was five wide round both turns at Oaklawn.

His final Kentucky Derby tune-up in the Arkansas Derby was also better than it might seem on paper: Just Steel raced close to the pace despite getting hooked four wide on the first turn, and he sustained his run through the lane in workmanlike fashion without tossing in the towel, finishing only two lengths behind No. 1-ranked Muth.

12) STRONGHOLD (c, Ghostzapper-Spectator, by Jimmy Creed)  O/B-Eric M. and Sharon Waller (KY); T-Philip D'Amato. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-3-0, $827,200. Last start: WON Apr. 6 GI Santa Anita Derby

This Ghostzapper-sired homebred for Rick and Sharon Waller is Kentucky-bound after winning the stretch slugfest in the Santa Anita Derby at 2.2-1 odds. His Beyer of 89 matches the figure he earned when victorious in the GIII Sunland Derby Feb. 18.

Of the nine 1 1/8-miles prep stakes on the Kentucky Derby qualifying calendar this season, the Santa Anita Derby holds the distinction of featuring the fastest opening quarter-mile (:22.72) and the slowest fourth-quarter split (:25.98).

Stronghold broke for the lead straight out of the gate, then was rated back to fourth by Antonio Fresu. After stalking the pacemakers, Stronghold shadowed Imagination on the far turn, split horses in upper stretch, then took over at the eighth pole. For the second straight race, he lost but recaptured the lead in the stretch, prevailing in the final 50 yards with admirable tenacity.

“Stronghold is a horse that just continues to improve, and I think it's the farther the better with him,” trainer Phil D'Amato said.  “He does just enough. He's shown the will to win, but those are usually the kinds of horses that stretch out well because they don't use themselves too much early and drain the gas tank. They have something left. I'm happy where we're at with him right now.”

Potentially rounding out the Derby starting gate…

13) Endlessly (Oscar Performance)

After Endlessly won the Mar. 23 GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. to run his record to 5-for-6, with all wins on turf or Tapeta, trainer Michael McCarthy said that this Amerman Racing homebred would be pointed for the GII American Turf S. on the Kentucky Derby undercard instead of using the colt's eligibility points to get into the Derby itself.

Endlessly's connections have since caught Derby fever–or at least a whiff of it.

“After the Jeff Ruby, Mr. Amerman and I talked and we're going to leave all of our options open,” McCarthy said after Endlessly breezed an easy four furlongs in :49.60 (78/111) over the Churchill dirt Saturday morning. “We still have a few weeks to train here and have some time to make a final decision as to what we do next.”

You wouldn't blame them for taking a shot. Endlessly has six starts, all at a mile or longer, and has already twice won over nine furlongs. His four-length, complete-control win with a big outside move in that Turfway stake completely outclassed the field.

14) Mystik Dan (Goldencents)

Mystik Dan was carried out wide entering the backstretch of the Arkansas Derby and took the second turn in the four path. But he stalled when called upon for run and ended up third, beaten 6 1/2 lengths, in his nine-furlong debut.

He currently makes the Kentucky Derby qualifying cutoff with 46 points and will be in “regroup” mode for trainer Kenny McPeek, who hopes a little extra distance will allow this homebred son of Goldencents for owners Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby and 4G Racing to get back to his 101-Beyer winning form from the GIII Southwest S.

15) Domestic Product (Practical Joke)

Domestic Product, a Chad Brown-trained homebred for Klaravich Stables, won the GIII Tampa Bay Derby with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure, a five-point regression off his 87-Beyer second in the GIII Holy Bull S.

The Tampa Derby was run as a non-wagering race because of bet-processing problems that caused a delay of more than half an hour past scheduled post.

Domestic Product was a midpack fifth behind a dawdling pace before being shaken up for run and surviving a three-way bob for the win.

For the second straight race, Domestic Product closed into unusually slow fractions. The first two quarter-mile splits in the Holy Bull were :25.03 and :25.50. The Tampa Derby's three opening quarters were clocked in :25.25, :25.89 and :25.07.

16) Honor Marie (Honor Code)

Honor Marie, a modest-framed $40,000 KEESEP colt by Honor Code who turns three on Derby Day, won the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill back on Nov. 25 by rating from last after five horses dueled early and two others took late-race runs at the lead.

In two starts in 2024, this Whit Beckman trainee was fifth in the GII Risen Star S., a key race that notably produced next-out, nine-furlong graded stakes winners Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Resilience. Honor Marie was second in his next outing, a 96-Beyer deep-closing try in the Louisiana Derby.

17) Society Man (Good Magic)

Now trainer Danny Gargan will have not one, but two Good Magic colts aiming for the Derby. Society Man's runner-up effort at 106-1 odds in the Wood Memorial secured the points berth to make the qualifying cutoff.

This $85,000 KEESEP yearling does have three races worth of experience at nine furlongs, although his only win was an on-Lasix score over a muddy, one-turn mile at Aqueduct Mar. 9.

“His mother won going a mile and an eighth and he's getting better,” Gargan said.

That win by dam You Cheated was her only dirt-track score from four wins, and it came at Churchill Downs in the slop in 2018.

18) West Saratoga (Exaggerator)

West Saratoga, an $11,000 KEESEP colt, is currently 11th on the Derby qualifying list with 67 points. He closed at 121-1 in this past weekend's Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

West Saratoga won the very first points-awarding prep stakes of the campaign, the GIII Iroquois  S. back on Sept. 16 at Churchill. He sat fourth behind a breakaway pacemaker, then came with a long, lumbering run to score at 12-1 odds.

This gray hasn't won since. At age three, he's been second, third, then second in the Pasco S., GIII Davis S. and Jeff Ruby S.

19) Catalytic (Catalina Cruiser)

Catalytic ($70,000 KEENOV, $125,000 FTSAUG) hit the side of the starting gate then got fanned four wide into the clubhouse turn of the Florida Derby. He was no match for runaway winner Fierceness, but held second in a best-of-the-rest performance that earned 50 qualifying points to get into the Kentucky Derby.

In his only other two starts, this son of Catalina Cruiser (out of a Distorted Humor mare) broke his maiden sprinting at Gulfstream last October, then finished second as the beaten favorite in an optional claimer/allowance sprint at Tampa Mar. 8.

20) T O Password (Jpn) (Copano Rickey {Jpn})

The connections of the 2-for-2 T O Password (Jpn) have accepted an invitation to compete in the Derby for accruing 40 points in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series.

This is a forward-running colt whose two victories have come against lesser company than that kept by fellow Japanese contender Forever Young.

In the Mar. 23 1,800-meter Fukuryu S., this 13-1 Daisuke Takayanagi trainee went straight to the lead but had to be saved by the wire after losing a four-length cushion in the final half a furlong.

Woodbine's leading rider last year, Kazushi Kimura, has been booked to ride in the Derby.

T O Password won't hit his third birthday until May 20.

The post TDN Sophomore Top 20: Separating Contenders From Pretenders appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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1) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-4-2-0, $1,504,100. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

Muth's two-length score in the GI Arkansas Derby cemented his status as the divisional kingpin. Yes, there are colts who are faster based on speed figures. And yes, there are contenders who are more visually arresting in their stretch runs. But in terms of consistency, reliability, and the potential for even more improvement, there are no better bets at this stage of the season.

The gaming corporation that runs Churchill Downs has disinvited trainer Bob Baffert from the track's 150th GI Kentucky Derby bash, so it's unclear where this 'TDN Rising Star' might start next. A commitment to the GI Preakness S. would still be weeks away, but the connections of whoever ends up winning the May 4 Derby probably won't be going wild with visions of sweeping the Triple Crown knowing that a fresh, fit and dangerous Muth is waiting in the wings.

Muth adapted to two disruptive attempts in the early stages of the Arkansas Derby. Off as the 2.3-1 second choice, he was initially forwardly placed under Juan Hernandez, then got edged back off the action when a keyed-up 26-1 shot slipped through at the rail. Taking up a sweet stalking spot cornering onto the backstretch, Hernandez then had to decide what to do when 11-10 favorite Timberlake (Into Mischief) unexpectedly accelerated between rivals at the 6 1/2-furlong pole to seize the lead.

Muth was asked to shadow fellow 'Rising Star' Timberlake before Hernandez sensed that he could let that rival keep a half-length lead for most of the back straight. Seven-sixteenths out, Hernandez coaxed Muth to unwind, and once he hit his best stride at the quarter pole, Muth began opening up under a hand ride while Timberlake was being roused and not responding.

Through the lane, Muth kept the pesky 32-1 shot Just Steel (Justify) two lengths in arrears, and under the wire it was another 4 1/2 lengths back to the remaining stragglers.

2) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $336,750. Last start: WON Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone, who celebrated his third birthday Mar. 31, is the horse to beat in Saturday's Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

That doesn't necessarily mean he needs to drain the tank to win his final prep race before the Derby. But considering this Chad Brown trainee has been unraced since winning the Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S., it is imperative for Sierra Leone to demonstrate numerical progression off a three-race Beyer Speed Figure arc of 71-91-90.

This $2.3-million FTSAUG sale-topper takes a long while to uncoil with his off-the-pace runs. But the scary thing is we haven't seen him come close to scraping the bottom of his stamina reserves just yet.

In the Risen Star, he accomplished quite a bit considering it was just his third career start: Sierra Leone handled shipping away from his home base, winning off an 11-week layoff, rating from midpack while equipped with blinkers for the first time, and racing under the lights on a sloppy, sealed, and eerily shadowy track.

The last six times Brown has started a horse in the Blue Grass, the results have been two wins, three close seconds, and a third.

3) FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) (c, Reel Steel {Jpn}–Forever Darling, by Congrats). O-Susumu Fujita; B-Northern Racing; T-Yoshito Yahagi. Sales History: ¥98,000,000 Ylg '22 JRHAJUL. Lifetime Record: 5-5-0-0, $2,049,451. Last start: WON Mar. 30 G2 UAE Derby.

The 5-for-5 Forever Young is a very plausible threat for the Kentucky Derby coming off a convincing win in Saturday's G2 UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse over 1900 meters.

This Yoshito Yahagi trainee who sold for the equivalent of $720,603 at the JRHA Select Yearling and Foal sale was prompted for speed from an outer draw. Then, after opting for a four-wide go through the first turn, jockey Ryusei Sakai deftly eased him back to fifth on the straightaway, doing the best he could to keep the colt out of kickback (Forever Young was equipped a protective mask that was supposed to soften the blow of the dirt spray).

Forever Young again took the overland route around the final bend while smoothly shifting into consecutively higher gears, then drilled past the pacemaker with an outside bid before drawing away confidently.

The four dirt races on the G1 Dubai World Cup card at Meydan provided only a limited sample, but two of them were blowout wins by speed horses who rode the rail, suggesting that the ground-conceding run by Forever Young could have been against the grain of an inside-favoring track.

4) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, MGISW, 5-3-0-1, $1,703,850. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Curlin Florida Derby.

Fierceness needed a sharp effort in the GI Florida Derby to give him forward momentum heading to Louisville, and a gaudy, 13 1/4-length blowout that earned a 110 Beyer supplied the latest exclamation point in a five-race, Jekyll-and-Hyde career that has alternated scintillating wins with inexplicably flat performances.

We still don't have a good measuring stick for how Fierceness might respond when faced with the multiple in-race challenges that a race like the 20-horse Derby will present. This Repole Stable homebred by City of Light had everything his own way Saturday when establishing a measured tempo without having to fight hard for the lead or repulse any serious bids.

It's not Fierceness's fault the Florida Derby came up soft on paper. But it does mean that the Kentucky Derby will be this colt's first immersion into the deeper end of the divisional pool since he pasted the field in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile by 6 1/4 lengths.

At age two, Fierceness aired in his sloppy-track Saratoga debut by 11 1/4 lengths. He then looked lost when seventh as the odds-on fave in the similarly sloppy GI Champagne S. His Breeders' Cup victory was delivered with authority, yet his coming-out party at age three was an underwhelming third at 1-5 odds in the slow-paced GIII Holy Bull S.

If anything, Fierceness's cakewalk in the Florida Derby should erase any doubts about whether he had too taxing a final prep five weeks before the Run for the Roses. On Sunday morning, trainer Todd Pletcher reported the colt came out of the race “super.”

5) DETERMINISTIC (c, Liam's Map–Giulio's Jewel, by Speightstown) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-St. Elias Stable, Langone, Ken, Duncker, C. Steven and Vicarage Stable; B-Hinkle Farms (KY); T-Christophe Clement. Sales history: $625,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $222,750. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S.

The athletic but lightly seasoned Deterministic remains on target for Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. This 2-for-2 Christophe Clement trainee bulleted five-eighths Friday in 1:01.60 (1/5) at Payson Park while reeling in a workmate after starting two lengths back with his usual jockey, Joel Rosario, aboard.

“I thought it was nice for him to be in behind a horse,” Clement told Daily Racing Form's David Grening. “If he goes two turns, a mile and an eighth, most probably he will be behind horses. I kind of like in the morning to try and reproduce what you're going to do in the race.”

This colt scored at first asking over seven furlongs in an Aug. 12 MSW sprint at Saratoga (81 Beyer). He was subsequently sidelined with an ankle chip, but stamped himself as a Derby contender with an eye-catching, stalk-and-split win in the Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct, a one-turn mile over a sloppy and sealed track (93 Beyer).

Deterministic is drawing more than the usual share of “wiseguy” attention considering he's only started twice and we're into April. But a big showing in New York vaults him into the mix for favoritism in Louisville.

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-2-0, $505,400. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S.

Dornoch, a $325,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic who is a full-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage, will still be in schooling mode for his final prep stakes Saturday at Keeneland.

Trainer Danny Gargan has been wanting to see if Dornoch is more effective in a race when targeting horses instead of setting the pace. But he didn't get to execute that strategy as planned in the GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream, because all the main speed horses scratched out of that race, and Dornoch once again got sent to the front. He wired the field that day, but Gargan wants to try again from a bit farther back in the Blue Grass.

The guess here is that Dornoch won't drop back quite as far as rival Sierra Leone. But with deadline for this column coming before entries are drawn, we don't know for sure which and how many early speed types will be setting the table ahead of both of them.

Dornoch bested Sierra Leone by a nose in the Dec. 2 GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct. But that was five months ago over a muddy track that was heavily biased toward early speed. Dornoch forced the issue up front and Sierra Leone closed wide from well off the tailgate. Dornoch brushed the rail in upper stretch, but regained his best stride late to steal back the lead from Sierra Leone, who was also a touch unfocused through the lane.

7) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L and N Racing LLC, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-2-1, $405,000. Last start: 4th in Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

Track Phantom's fourth in the GII Louisiana Derby was subpar considering he was allowed to establish an unpressured pace before regressing late. But when you consider that he looked certain to be swallowed up by no fewer than five rivals off the turn yet didn't concede the lead until the sixteenth pole, that has to count for something.

This $500,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road wouldn't be the first speed-centric horse to win the Kentucky Derby off a so-so final prep race. Keep in mind that in a year where top prospects are light on racing experience, trainer Steve Asmussen has already given Track Phantom seven starts at a mile or longer, and he's been right up near the lead in every try.

In doing so, he's dealt with outermost posts in three of his last four starts, plus gate 11 of 12 on one other occasion. Track Phantom has been unfazed by having hyper horses to his inside, and he's also engaged in a couple of decent stretch fights. He's run well in the slop (twice second, beaten half a length each time), and he's won around two turns at Churchill, which is always encouraging to see.

Track Phantom was among the first Derby candidates to ship into Churchill last Thursday, and his stock is likely to quietly rise over the course of the next month.

8) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $79,200. Last start: WON Feb. 11 Santa Anita AOC.

This son of Frosted out of an Indian Charlie mare earned 'TDN Rising Star' honors in his Jan. 20 debut over 6 1/2 furlongs by splitting horses early, pegging straight for the lead, and setting a brisk tempo before brushing off three spent rivals at the quarter pole. His winning margin was 7 1/2 easy lengths (93 Beyer).

Six horses have now run back out of that Santa Anita MSW, and they are a collective 1-for-8 in all subsequent starts, with the lone winner running a 79 Beyer.

The better measuring stick might be Maymun's Feb. 11 allowance try over a mile in which he brushed a rival at the break, then sideswiped stablemate and second-favorite Imagination (Into Mischief) while bearing out into the first turn.

After a slower second-quarter split, Imagination engaged Maymun from the outside and they ratcheted up the cadence from the three-eighths pole to the wire before Maymun wrested Imagination into submission through a final eighth in :12.83 (89 Beyer). The top two were 10 1/2 lengths clear of the three also-rans.

Imagination showed he was no slouch be rebounding to capture the Mar. 3 GII San Felipe S.

The two could hook up again in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby, where trainer Bob Baffert is expected to enter at least two stablemates.

9) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution–Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $877,350. Last start: WON Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

The 97-Beyer winner of the Louisiana Derby is scheduled for four workouts prior to the Kentucky Derby, trainer Brad Cox told the 'TDN Writers' Room' podcast last week.

Cox mentioned that this Constitution colt brushed the gate and thus didn't jump all that well in the Louisiana Derby. Even though Catching Freedom is an established closer, it was not the game plan for him to be so far back, Cox added.

Flavien Prat made the most of an improvised trip, waiting patiently behind a moderate pace at the rear of the field until 2 1/2 furlongs out before circling with a 12-wide bid in upper stretch that Catching Freedom sustained over the length of the long Fair Grounds home straight.

“He's not a big horse. He's medium-sized. He's a good mover,” Cox said. “He puts a good bit into his gallops. His works have just been average. His first work back will be a pretty basic work. We may even take him by himself. We're not looking to do much with him. But then the three [works] leading up [to the Derby] we'll ask him for a little bit more.”

10) IMAGINATION (c, Into Mischief–Magical Feeling, by Empire Maker) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan & Tom Ryan; B-Peter Blum Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,050,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-3-0, $256,800. Last start: WON Mar. 3 San Felipe S.

This $1.05-million KEESEP colt has never been worse than second from five starts. He appears to be in the mix for Saturday's Santa Anita Derby for trainer Bob Baffert.

In the San Felipe S., Imagination got clipped from behind, then rushed to engage stablemate Wine Me Up (Vino Rosso). The two locked into a prolonged battle around the far turn and through the home straight, with Imagination gamely prevailing by a head (96 Beyer).

As mentioned above in Maymun's write-up, Imagination was also impeded around the first turn two starts ago in a Santa Anita allowance, yet he didn't back down in that race either. He finished second, beaten a neck, after briefly snatching the lead on three distinct occasions in the stretch.

11) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-3-1-0, $1,173,100. Last start: 4th Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

Timberlake's fourth-place try in the Arkansas Derby knocked him down a few pegs on the sophomore totem pole, but it didn't get him voted off the Top 12 island just yet, because the effort might have been an aberration.

In last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Timberlake never settled in the early stages and it cost him the race. This $350,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief seemed to have rectified that issue when he rated much more willingly in the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. But on Saturday at Oaklawn, he was back to his old tricks, and Flavien Prat believed it was best to just let him go rather than waste energy fighting the colt's headstrong ways.

“He was getting very aggressive, so I kind of let him run,” Prat told FanDuel TV. “He settled down nicely on the backside, but he didn't have much run at the end.”

Considering he has the qualifying points and a pedigree that fuses speed with stamina, the Derby is still a realistic goal if trainer Brad Cox can figure out how to get a more efficient effort out of Timberlake. Prat also rides No. 9-ranked Catching Freedom for Cox, meaning a Derby choice looms likely in the near future.

12) JUST STEEL (c, Justify–Irish Lights {Aus}, by Fastnet Rock {Aus}). O-BC Stables, LLC; B-Summerhill Farm (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Sales History: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 11-2-4-1, $724,545. Last start: 2nd Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

How's this for a story line? At age 88, trainer D. Wayne Lukas will be saddling his 50th Derby horse overall and his first starter in the race since 2018 after Just Steel's 32-1 second-place try in the Arkansas Derby garnered enough qualifying points to get in.

Lukas has won the Derby four times, with Winning Colors (1988), Thunder Gulch (1995), Grindstone (1996) and Charismatic (1999).

Based solely on race records, the 2-for-11 Just Steel compares aptly to Charismatic, who was 2-for-12 entering his Derby 25 years ago and went off at a largely ignored 31-1 in the betting.

While Just Steel isn't as purely fast as some of the higher-ranked Derby aspirants on this list, he's a hard-trying type who can be envisioned as being in the thick of things late at a big price if he gets the right trip.

Just Steel's effort at Oaklawn was commendable. He was always near the pace despite going four wide on the first turn, and he maintained his run through the lane in persistent enough fashion to prove he knows how to finish.

The post TDN Sophomore Top 12: Final Wave of 9-Furlong Preps About to Crest appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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1) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

With stablemate and fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Nysos (Nyquist) out of training for at least 30 days, Muth inherits the top spot on the Sophomore Top 12 despite not having raced since Jan. 6.

This 3-for-5 Good Magic colt drew post seven for Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby as the 8-5 morning-line favorite.

Muth is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby because of Churchill Downs's corporate ban on Bob Baffert's trainees. So it's possible Baffert is sizing up a subsequent start for him in the GI Preakness S. May 18.

The athletic Muth has a no-drama way of going about his tasks, and that businesslike efficiency appears poised to bloom into substantial class. With four total races at age two that included two routes and a Grade I win in the American Pharoah S., Baffert opted to sharpen this colt's speed by starting 2024 him in the seven-furlong GIII San Vicente S., a race that Muth commanded by stalking two pacemakers before breaking away at will (90 Beyer Speed Figure).

Baffert has won the Arkansas Derby four times. Favorites crossed the finish wire first in that race for five straight runnings, from 2017 through split divisions in 2020. But the chalk has gone down in defeat in each of the last three editions.

2) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $336,750. Last start: WON Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

With two wins and a second-place loss by only a nose, plus a locomotive-like ability to close ground when it counts, Sierra Leone's form doesn't need much validation from the horses left in his wake.

Still, the win by this 'TDN Rising Star' in the Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds now looks even better after Saturday's one-two finish in the GII Louisiana Derby by the colts who ran third and fifth behind Sierra Leone last month in New Orleans.

This $2.3-million FTSAUG sale-topper will go next in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland, meaning that if he exits that final Derby prep in decent order, this Chad Brown trainee will have three straight races at nine furlongs prior to attempting 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

That experience over a distance of ground might mitigate concerns about only having four lifetime starts before the Derby.

3) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 4-2-0-1, $1,127,250. Last start: 3rd Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S.

You can expect juvenile champ and 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness to go off quite a bit lower than his 8-5 morning-line ranking in Saturday's GI Curlin Florida Derby. He drew post 10 in an 11-horse field that lured just one other colt currently ranked within TDN's Sophomore Top 12.

The GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile victor is in regroup mode for start number two of 2024. He drew a very soft field for the Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S. Accordingly, the betting public hammered him to 1-5 odds, but Fierceness came up flat.

By way of a possible excuse, trainer Todd Pletcher had referenced bumping at the break that caused jockey John Velazquez to push harder on the colt than they would have liked to in an attempt to obtain good early positioning. But still, a colt of Fierceness's perceived caliber should have finished up a lot more powerfully considering the lullaby tempo of the Holy Bull's two opening quarter-miles, which were clocked in :25.03 and :25.50.

A performance on Saturday that resembles anything close to the one uncorked by Fierceness when he trounced the Juvenile field by 6 1/4 lengths en route to a 105 Beyer victory would re-establish his presence as the Kentucky Derby favorite.

This Repole Stable homebred had checked a lot of boxes on that first weekend of November by flashing tactical speed while in hand from the gate, willingly pressing a pacemaker, displaying good responsiveness when encouraged to quicken, and fluidly torqueing into a higher gear through the stretch before smoothly galloping out well ahead of everyone else.

Dornoch | Nicole Thomas

4) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-2-0, $505,400. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S.

The anticipated rematch of Dornoch and Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass S. will end up being the highest-profile rivalry of the Derby prep campaign. In a season that has been hallmarked by shallow qualifying stakes with little horse-vs.-horse intrigue, here's hoping that showdown ends up being worth the wait.

Those two last met in the Dec. 2 GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct. Racing on a sealed, muddy track that favored early speed, Dornoch outgunned five rivals for the lead, took pressure from a 27-1 shot, swatted back bids from fresh challengers on the far turn, then brushed the rail and re-surged to steal the lead late from Sierra Leone, who had taken the overland route from last against the grain of the bias. Dornoch's winning margin was a nose.

Each has since had one subsequent start at age three, with Sierra Leone annexing the Risen Star S. as the 5-2 favorite and Dornoch winning at 1-5 odds in a scratch-reduced GII Fountain of Youth S.

That cakewalk win at Gulfstream for this son of Good Magic didn't tell us much about Dornoch's forward progression. But trainer Danny Gargan has said he's liked what he's seen in two breezes since that race, and in choosing the Blue Grass he is underscoring that he's not ducking anyone along the way to the Derby in his hometown of Louisville.

5) DETERMINISTIC (c, Liam's Map–Giulio's Jewel, by Speightstown) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-St. Elias Stable, Langone, Ken, Duncker, C. Steven and Vicarage Stable; B-Hinkle Farms (KY); T-Christophe Clement. Sales history: $625,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $222,750. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S.

Despite being one of the lightest-raced among the Top 12 contenders, the 2-for-2 Deterministic rates highly in terms of the anticipatory buzz about his next start and projections about how he might fare as a Triple Crown contender.

After winning at first asking in an Aug. 12 MSW sprint at Saratoga, Deterministic was sidelined with an ankle chip that kept him out of action until the Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct.

Trainer Christophe Clement had this $625,000 KEESEP colt primed to fire off the nearly seven-month layoff, and Deterministic stalked willingly under Joel Rosario prior to tipping out and splitting horses with authority in the stretch over a sealed and sloppy one-turn mile.

The visually impressive win garnered a 93 Beyer, a boost of 12 points.

The Apr. 6 GII Wood Memorial S. is next.

6) CONQUEST WARRIOR (c, City of Light–Tea Time, by Pulpit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-Betz/B&K Canetti/J.Betz/CoCo Equine/D.J. Stables (KY); T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,000,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $96,000. Last start: WON Mar. 1 Gulfstream AOC.

Although gate nine is not a desirable draw for nine-furlong races at Gulfstream (2-for-105 over the past 15 years according to Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch), the wide post is probably not going to be as big of an issue for 'TDN Rising Star' Conquest Warrior, who figures to be backed off the Florida Derby pace with speed threats drawn to his inside and outside.

This stout-framed, long-striding $1-million KEESEP closer will benefit from being able to sit back and zero in on targets. But he's going to need a less “busy” ride from jockey Jose Ortiz, who in a Mar. 1 allowance at Gulfstream over the same distance rated Conquest Warrior off heels at the seven-furlong pole, sent him back up to re-engage six furlongs out, came through on the inside, then sliced outside for a winning run to reel in a tiring target.

There was a fair amount of lateral and back-and-forth repositioning going on in that race, and Conquest Warrior got away with all that maneuvering because he was 1-5 in the betting against five rivals who weren't Triple Crown-caliber competition.

Conquest Warrior's previous race, a one-turn-mile maiden win Jan. 13, was also a bit of an adventure. He got sandwiched at the break, shuffled to last, then repeatedly ran into traffic before bursting through for a dramatic half-length score under Ortiz.

Trainer Shug McGuaghey will send out the second-favorite for the Florida Derby knowing Conquest Warrior is 2-for-2 over the Gulfstream surface, that he's already won at 1 1/8 miles, and that he should get honest fractions in front of him while he unwinds from midpack or farther back.

7) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $79,200. Last start: WON Feb. 11 Santa Anita AOC.

The 2-for-2 'TDN Rising Star' Maymun will start next in the Apr. 6 GI Santa Anita Derby, according to a confirmation by trainer Bob Baffert first published by Horse Racing Nation on Friday.

Maymun blitzed home first by 7 1/2 lengths in his Jan. 20 debut over 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita (93 Beyer), then scored a one-mile allowance victory (89 Beyer) there Feb. 11 despite sideswiping a stablemate on the first turn.

After both colts recovered without incident, Maymun launched a spirited bid three-eighths from the wire in tandem with Imagination (Into Mischief). But he had to exert quite a bit of effort in putting away his stubborn stablemate, who seized the lead three times from the quarter to the sixteenth poles before Maymun clawed back a half-length deficit inside the final 100 yards.

Imagination came back to win the Mar. 3 GII San Felipe S. with a 96 Beyer.

8) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-1-0, $1,094,350. Last start: WON Feb. 24 GII Rebel S.

Trainer Brad Cox has won the Arkansas Derby with non-favorites in each of the last two runnings, with Cyberknife at 5-1 odds in 2022 and Angel of Empire at 9-2 last season.

This year, he's got 'TDN Rising Star' Timberlake who will start from post two as the 9-5 second choice on the morning line behind the favored Muth.

Timberlake has plateaued 93 Beyers in three straight starts spanning nearly six months. Those races were a one-turn-mile win in the sloppy-surfaced GI Champagne S., a rank-on-the-first-turn fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, then a much more settled win in the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn.

His stretch run in the Rebel wasn't flawless–Timberlake stalled momentarily, but re-engaged once roused. It was a decent enough launch point to show how he has the potential to be a legit divisional threat with some polishing.

“I like the timing,” Cox said of the Oaklawn race. “Obviously, he has the experience there now, that one run under him. I kind of thought the Rebel was the spot when we were getting started. At the beginning of the winter, we thought the Rebel was the spot. It worked out.”

Catching Freedom | Hodges Photography

9) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution-Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $877,350. Last start: WON Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

Catching Freedom won't be heading to Louisville as one of the favorites. But his last-to-first win in Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby stamped him as a capable stayer. He'll be the type of colt who doesn't rank as an A-list powerhouse, but you'll probably end up agonizing over whether to include him in your exotic wagers, because he figures to be firing from off the tailgate.

At Fair Grounds, Flavien Prat waited patiently at the rear of the field until 2 1/2 furlongs out behind a moderate tempo, and because he didn't want to slow this Constitution colt's momentum, he let Catching Freedom fan 12 wide into the lane.

This $575,000 KEESEP grad chugged home in straight, grind-down fashion, executing his job willingly. But for the most part, he was passing horses who had already taken their best cracks at the leader.

Catching Freedom's 97 Beyer came back a little higher than I might have guessed based on the visual impression of the race. He gained ground in the stretch through a final furlong and a half timed in :18.78. In the five runnings since the Louisiana Derby got elongated to 1 3/16 miles, that's the second slowest fraction for the final three-sixteenths of the race.

“I didn't know what to make of it early on, being so far back and with not much pace,” said trainer Brad Cox. “But Flavien did a great job of letting him inch up. He needed pretty much the entire stretch to get there and I am very proud of the effort.”

10) MYSTIK DAN (c, Goldencents–Ma'am, by Colonel John) O/B-Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-1-0, $510,110. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Southwest S.

Mystik Dan improved his Beyer by a whopping 19 points and was geared down late while leading the way home through a final sixteenth clocked in a zippy :5.93 when he won the Feb. 3  GIII Southwest S. at 11-1 odds.

Are his 101 Beyer and the distinction of having run the fastest closing half-furlong among all 18 of this season's Derby points-awarding stakes at 1 1/16 miles the real deal? Or were those impressive metrics simply artifacts of Mystik Dan relishing a muddy, sealed Oaklawn surface that was playing quirkily?

We'll find out in Saturday's Arkansas Derby, where this homebred son of Goldencents for owners Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby and 4G Racing faces the difficult task of trying to outmuscle both the No. 1-ranked Muth and No. 8 Timberlake.

Trainer Kenny McPeek has expressed confidence all winter long about how this keen-minded colt has learned how to rate off the pace without the transition blunting Mystik Dan's natural speed.

Besides the Southwest romp by eight lengths, Mystik Dan's only other victory from five starts was a 5 1/2-furlong MSW win at Churchill back on Nov. 12 in which he wired the field by 7 3/4 lengths.

11) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road-Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L and N Racing LLC, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-2-1, $405,000. Last start: 4th in Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby

Track Phantom didn't have to be rushed from post 11 and he was allowed to dictate a moderate tempo in the Louisiana Derby. So in that respect, it's a bit disappointing that he faded to fourth in the stretch as the beaten 2-1 favorite and won't be heading to the Kentucky Derby with positive forward momentum.

But that doesn't mean he gets voted off the Top 12 island, either. Especially because this is a year that is shaping up as a Derby without too many established, credible early blazers to force or set the pace. With a little honing of his established speed-centric form in two-turn races, trainer Steve Asmussen could fine-tune this $500,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road into the type of dangerous Derby prospect who gets bold on the lead.

Also, consider that Track Phantom looked almost certain to be swallowed up by no fewer than five contenders ganging up behind him at the head of the lane on Saturday. I can't say for certain whether he definitively swatted them all back or if their bids just never materialized. But give this colt some credit for not ceding the lead until the sixteenth pole despite tiring under duress.

Asmussen told Daily Racing Form Sunday that after talking to jockey Joel Rosario, “we thought there was a little more there, and we're going to try a little French cup blinker.” He added that Track Phantom exited the race fine and will point for the Derby.

12) IMAGINATION (c, Into Mischief–Magical Feeling, by Empire Maker) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan & Tom Ryan; B-Peter Blum Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-3-0, $256,800. Last start: WON Mar. 3 San Felipe S.

Imagination got clipped from behind on the clubhouse turn of the GII San Felipe S., then rushed up to engage stablemate Wine Me Up (Vino Rosso). The two battled around the far turn and into the home straight, with Imagination prevailing by a head.

Since breaking his maiden in start number three on Jan. 1, this Bob Baffert trainee has now put together two sharp back-to-back routes races in which he has been knocked off balance early, then got locked into a prolonged tussle on the front end without backing down. Even when he lost by a neck to Maymun back on Feb. 11, that second-place try resonated as a punching-above-his-weight type of performance.

This $1.05-million KEESEP colt could resurface in the Santa Anita Derby, where Baffert is expected to have “at least two starters and potentially three,” as per Sunday's Santa Anita press notes.

The post TDN Sophomore Top 12: Five Contenders in Action This Saturday appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist–Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $216,600. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Robert F. Lewis S.

On Saturday, trainer Bob Baffert scratched 1-5 morning-line favorite Nysos from Sunday's GII San Felipe S. He told Daily Racing Form's Brad Free that a “gut feeling” was prodding him to give the undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' more time off between races.

“My original plan to was to just wait,” Baffert told DRF, referencing the time since Nysos's 7 1/2-length win in the Feb. 3 GIII Lewis S.

“I don't need to run him [Sunday]. I just might wait for the [Apr. 6 GI] Santa Anita Derby,” Baffert told DRF, adding the colt was physically fine.

This powerful, dynamic son of Nyquist ($130,000 KEENOV, $150,000 FTKOCT, $550,000 OBSAPR) has now won at six, seven and eight furlongs by a combined 26 3/4 lengths while earning Beyer Speed Figures of 96, 97 and 105.

Despite the San Felipe scratch, bettors zealously backed this colt to heavy 5-2 favoritism in the first round of the GI Preakness S. futures pool that closed Saturday.

Churchill Downs has barred Baffert's trainees from participating in the Derby, and the purported wisdom of crowds is banking that his top Derby-skipping sophomore will not only show up in the Preakness, but dominate it.

But Baffert has yet to publicly declare which, if any, of his trainees might be Baltimore-bound 2 1/2 months from now, which makes Nysos's Preakness futures price look like a huge underlay.

2) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

With Nysos likely slotted for the Santa Anita Derby, that leaves stablemate and fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Muth  as the most likely candidate to lead Bob Baffert's traveling team to Oaklawn for the GI Arkansas Derby Mar. 30.

Muth ($190,000 KEESEP, $2 million OBSMAR) had already been pegged to hit the road to Hot Springs this season, for the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. This son of Good Magic would have been heavily favored in that spot, but after Baffert wasn't satisfied with the way Muth's final workout for the race went, he declined to enter.

Muth has alternated wins and seconds in five lifetime races since breaking his maiden back on June 18. He was second in the GIII Best Pal S., first in the GI American Pharoah S., second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, then a winner in the GII San Vicente S.

Muth would be facing a nearly three-month layoff in the Arkansas Derby, a stakes that Baffert has won four times.

Favorites crossed the finish wire first in the Arkansas Derby for five straight runnings, from 2017 through split divisions in 2020. But the chalk has lost in each of the last three years.

3) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $336,750. Last start: WON Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

If he goes next in the GI Blue Grass S. at Keeneland as expected, Sierra Leone will have three straight races at nine furlongs spanning from December to April prior to attempting 10 furlongs in the Kentucky Derby.

That experience over a distance of ground will help, especially considering this $2.3 million FTSAUG sale-topper by Gun Runner is projected to have just four lifetime races prior to heading to Louisville.

Since 1937, only four horses have won the Derby going into the race with four or fewer lifetime starts: Animal Kingdom (four) plus Justify, Big Brown and Mage (three each).

Sierra Leone will also be going up against the grain of another recent hurdle–winning the Derby off of just two starts at age three. That angle produced eight Derby winners between 2007 and 2016. But since then, horses with only two sophomore starts have been a collective 0-for-39 in the Derby.

Still, beyond those historical trends, it's tough to knock this 'TDN Rising Star' on the basis of his on-track performance.

He won his one-turn-mile debut Nov. 4 at Aqueduct despite repeated trip trouble, and that race produced two next-out winners, one a fellow 'Rising Star'.

Sierra Leone then rallied seven wide from last in the mud against a stern speed bias in the GII Remsen S., but had to settle for second after losing the lead late.

His 3-year-old debut featured another resolute rally over a wet track when he shot home from the back of the pack over the long Fair Grounds stretch in the Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

Sierra Leone's Beyer arc now stands at 71-91-90.

4) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L & N Racing LLC, Clark O Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-2-1, $365,000. Last start: 2nd in Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

Track Phantom isn't a shock-and-awe type of colt, but he rates near the top of the crop in terms of steadiness and reliability over six races.

Since trainer Steve Asmussen stretched out this $500,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road in lifetime start number three, Track Phantom has responded with three speed-centric wins and one half-length loss that was a decent try, with Beyers trending 88-89-90-89 in two-turn races.

He's handled different types of pace pressure despite being drawn in or near the outside stall in his last three races, has routinely had to engage in stretch battles, and has capably handled two different types of wet tracks at Fair Grounds and Churchill.

After getting outrun in the deep stages of the Risen Star S. by No. 3-ranked Sierra Leone, Track Phantom remains on target for the GII Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles.

5) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 4-2-0-1, $1,127,250. Last start: 3rd Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S.

With a bullet half-mile breeze Feb. 23 and a third-best, in-company morning move over the same distance Mar. 1 that featured a strong gallop-out, trainer Todd Pletcher expressed confidence from Palm Beach Downs that 2-year-old champ Fierceness is making progress for the GI Florida Derby.

Back on Feb. 3, the Repole Stable homebred and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner ran a punchless third at 1-5 odds when making his 3-year-old debut.

Pletcher explained that this 'TDN Rising Star' by City of Light had been training well leading up to that subpar performance in the GIII Holy Bull S., and he's still a little perplexed as to why Fierceness didn't truly fire.

“I don't think he needed a race. I think our expectations were so high for him that maybe we're not looking at it realistically. If you watch the start of the race, he got slammed pretty hard from both sides. Johnny [Velazquez], in order to execute the game plan, had to use him pretty hard to get to the first turn in the position we wanted to,” Pletcher said.

“He could have been a little rusty off the layoff, even though he was training great. He was top weight. [There are] a lot of subtle excuses that, for an ordinary horse, you would try to justify it. In his case, he trained so well and we expected so much of him, sometimes you think he can overcome everything.”

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-2-0, $505,400. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S.

There's a lot to be said for simply showing up, and that adage was especially true for this $325,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic in Saturday's GII Fountain of Youth S. That race was decimated by four scratches, and Dornoch ended up towering over four rivals at 1-5 in the betting while administering a straightforward wiring that earned him an 88 Beyer, a three-point dip off his most recent victory in the GII Remsen S. back on Dec. 2.

Trainer Danny Gargan had outlined prior to the Fountain of Youth S. that he wanted Dornoch to get some schooling by rating slightly behind the pace. But the scratches changed the way the race shaped up on paper, and Gargan called a last-minute audible, telling jockey Luis Saez to instead head straight to the front.

“We didn't want to be on the lead [because] he gets out there and he kind of plays around,” Gargan said. “You can see him with his ears kind of goofing off. I told Luis, 'Just go ahead and go.' We had no choice. We really wanted to stalk, it just didn't work out that way. He won fine enough. Surely it won't be his fastest race. We didn't expect to win. It just kind of played out that way. I don't think he ran very hard.”

As for Dornoch's next start, Gargan said “we could run in the Florida Derby or the Blue Grass. We're lucky enough now where we can pick our spot. Sixty [Kentucky Derby qualifying] points usually gets you in, so now we're on cruise control. We'll figure out where we want to go next and try to enjoy this for a minute.”

Dornoch | Ryan Thompson

7) DETERMINISTIC (c, Liam's Map–Giulio's Jewel, by Speightstown) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-St. Elias Stable, Langone, Ken, Duncker, C. Steven and Vicarage Stable; B-Hinkle Farms (KY); T-Christophe Clement. Sales history: $625,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $222,750. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S.

Deterministic (Liam's Map) is an intriguing new shooter within the Top 12, anchoring his status with a hard-charging, 93-Beyer win off a seven-month layoff in Saturday's GIII Gotham S. over a sealed and sloppy one-turn mile at Aqueduct for trainer Christophe Clement.

Clement himself is part of the appeal, because if he does end up sending this $625,000 KEESEP colt on a prep path that leads to Louisville, you can have confidence knowing that the well-respected veteran conditioner believes the colt truly belongs. Clement has never saddled a horse in the Kentucky Derby, although he did win the GI Belmont S. with Tonalist in 2014.

“To [just] run [in the Derby], no,” Clement told the Aqueduct notes team, underscoring that he's not interested in entering Triple Crown races just to take a shot. “To win, yes,” he added with a laugh.

But if Deterministic ends up running big in a race like the Florida Derby or GII Wood Memorial, where he'd be sure to get wiseguy betting attention based on Clement's impeccable reputation for proper placement of his horses, the Kentucky Derby could be a “go.”

Clement said Deterministic would be nominated to a number of Derby points-awarding preps.

“No decision whatsoever made for the next start,” Clement said. “At the moment, the only worry is the well-being of the horse and we'll go from there. We'll get him to a work and the work will tell us what to do with him.

“I had a long talk with Joel [Rosario] and he was delighted with the horse,” Clement said, alluding to that jockey also being aboard for Deterministic's maiden debut win at Saratoga last August. “He thought that he was a lot more mature yesterday than what he was in his first race.”

8) CONQUEST WARRIOR (c, City of Light–Tea Time, by Pulpit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-Betz/B&K Canetti/J.Betz/CoCo Equine/D.J. Stables (KY); T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,000,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $96,000. Last start: WON Mar. 1 Gulfstream AOC.

You got the feeling trainer Shug McGuaghey wanted not just a win, but a good learning experience for 'TDN Rising Star' Conquest Warrior (City of Light) out of last Friday's nine-furlong allowance try at Gulfstream. The Hall-of-Fame trainer ended up getting both, and now has the luxury of choosing among several different prep stakes for this long-striding $1 million KEESEP colt.

Exiting an adversity-overcoming maiden win going a mile, Conquest Warrior got bet down to 3-5 favoritism against five rivals Mar. 1. He initially tried to resist Jose Ortiz's rating hold through the first turn, but Ortiz chose not to fight him, and Conquest Warrior adeptly settled into a more rhythmic cadence once Ortiz guided him off heels and away from outer cover seven-eighths out.

But by the six-furlong pole, Ortiz was already on the prowl to re-engage, and he chose an inside passage for Conquest Warrior, who ate some kickback but methodically picked off two backstretch targets before slicing outside of the tiring leader on the far turn.

By upper stretch this son of City of Light had attained the lead without coming anywhere close to being fully unleashed, and with no new threats emerging from behind, Ortiz put Conquest Warrior under cruise control for the final sixteenth. The 1:50.52 clocking translated to an 84 Beyer, the same figure the colt earned when breaking his maiden.

The Florida Derby, Blue Grass S., and GII Wood Memorial are all options.

9) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $79,200. Last start: WON Feb. 11 Santa Anita AOC.

Maymun ($50,000 KEESEP, $900,000 OBSAPR) owns a 2-for-2 record for trainer Bob Baffert, but next-race plans for this 'TDN Rising Star' have yet to be publicly disclosed.

This son of Frosted romped by 7 1/2 lengths in his Jan. 20 unveiling over 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita (93 Beyer), then registered a one-mile allowance victory Feb. 11 despite racing rambunctiously on the first turn (89 Beyer).

Maymun's stablemate, Imagination (Into Mischief), was the second-place finisher in that allowance race. That colt returned Mar. 3 to win the San Felipe S. by a head with a 96 Beyer.

10) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-1-0, $1,094,350. Last start: WON Feb. 24 GII Rebel S.

'TDN Rising Star' Timberlake was a 93-Beyer winner in his sophomore debut, and while the speed figure he earned in that Rebel S. was only good enough to match the last two numbers he posted at age two when capturing the GI Champagne S. and running fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, there was improvement in the “how he did it” category.

That's because in the Juvenile, this $350,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief resisted efforts to settle among horses on the clubhouse turn, and it cost him the race.

Nearly four months later at Oaklawn, Timberlake was tasked with essentially the same assignment, and this time he handled it capably, rating between horses before advancing into contention on the far turn.

Roused for run three-eighths out, Timberlake loomed five wide into the lane. Charging hard while widest and always under a drive, he put away three wilting pacemakers but had a touch more difficulty dispatching a 28-1 shot who had slipped through at the rail.

Timberlake momentarily stalled and shifted outward at the eighth pole, narrowly losing the lead for several strides. But after jockey Christian Torres re-engaged his interest, Timberlake drew off under encouragement to win by two lengths with no serious closers firing from the back of the pack.

A final prep race prior to the Kentucky Derby is in the cards, with trainer Brad Cox indicating that the preference will be a Grade I race, with the Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass S. the likeliest landing spots.

11) MYSTIK DAN (c, Goldencents–Ma'am, by Colonel John) O/B-Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-1-0, $510,110. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Southwest S.

Mystik Dan, who celebrated a birthday Mar. 4, is training at Fair Grounds for a repeat trip to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby.

Last time out at Oaklawn, this son of Goldencents unleashed an eight-length, 101-Beyer romp in the GIII Southwest S.

Considering Mystik Dan was let go at 11-1 in the betting, and taking into account that he might have relished a muddy, sealed surface that other horses didn't handle, it remains an open question as to whether this homebred for Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby, and 4G Racing can conjure up a similar effort against tougher competition going a longer distance over a dry surface.

The Southwest hasn't shaken out to be a productive stakes. The horses who ran second, fifth, seventh and tenth behind Mystik Dan in the Southwest came back to run seventh, second, sixth and tenth, respectively, in the Rebel S. The fourth-place Southwest horse dropped into an allowance race and again ran fourth. A ninth-place maiden out of the Southwest ran a next-out third in a MSW route.

Still, McPeek has pointed to intangibles when sizing up Mystik Dan's potential, explaining that he believes the colt has a good mind and an easygoing attitude, both of which are helping to adapt this his ample natural speed to two-turn pacing.

Encino | Coady

12) ENCINO (c, Nyquist–Glittering Jewel, by Bernardini) O/B-Godolphin, LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $141,971. Last start: WON Mar. 2 John Battaglia Memorial S.

Encino (Nyquist) is an under-the-radar but quietly improving colt from trainer Brad Cox's barn. Over the weekend he upped his record to 2-for-3 in Tapeta routes at Turfway by winning the John Battaglia Memorial S. over 1 1/16 miles by one length with an 89 Beyer.

This Godolphin homebred's only loss was by a neck when second in his mile debut. He then wired the field at odds-on in start number two, and overcame post 11 in the Battaglia S. despite giving up four paths of real estate on both turns and running up on the heels of the favorite at the three-sixteenths pole. After regaining his momentum, Encino refocused to reel in that more experienced, stakes-winning foe.

Encino's connections now must decide whether to keep him on a Tapeta surface they know he can handle by targeting the Mar. 23 GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. at Turfway, or if he's ready for a transition to a dirt surface against what would likely be more difficult competition.

The post TDN Sophomore Top 12: Getting Ready To March Into Nine-Furlong Proving Grounds appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Churchill Downs, Inc., has barred trainer Bob Baffert from competing in the GI Kentucky Derby, and that left us in a quandary over how to assess the nation's best 3-year-old prospects.

It didn't seem right to dismiss the accomplishments of elite-level sophomores, regardless of whether they were eligible for the Derby or not. Nor did it seem proper to ignore the benchmarks their performances provide to help establish the overall pecking order.

So we're including Baffert's trainees in the Sophomore Top 12–along with horses from any other stable–so long as those horses are Triple Crown aspirants.

Once all the major preps have been run in April, we'll still expand the Top 12 to the Top 20 like we do each year.

And in the week leading up to each Triple Crown race, these rankings will again focus on race-specific, horse-by-horse analysis for the Derby, GI Preakness S., and GI Belmont S.

1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist–Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $216,600. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Robert F. Lewis S.

The 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' Nysos has plenty of sophomore prowess in his pedigree. Sire Nyquist won the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Damsire Bernardini took the 2006 Preakness. Grand-damsire A.P. Indy won the 1992 Belmont, and his sire, Seattle Slew, swept the 1977 Triple Crown. All three female-side of those sires were crowned 3-year-old champions, and the latter two were also voted Horse of the Year at age three.

Nysos won't be Derby-bound because of the ban imposed upon trainer Bob Baffert. But this colt will have other opportunities to tee it up against Grade I competition, with a possible Santa Anita Derby/Preakness combo looming on his calendar.

That schedule is pure speculation, because Baffert generally does not disclose advance stakes engagements for his horses. In the long run it might be futile to try and guess the projected paths of Baffert's top-tier sophomores. But right now in the dead of winter it's an interesting exercise considering the legitimate hype surrounding Nysos.

This nimble but powerful colt has now won at six, seven and eight furlongs by a combined 26 3/4 lengths while earning Beyer Speed Figures of 96, 97 and 105.

Two other items stand out in Nysos's past performance block: 1) How did a colt this talented ever go off at 6-1 odds in his debut? 2) Given his apparent mental maturity, it's a bit of a surprise to see Nysos was a comparatively late May 8 foal.

2) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

'TDN Rising Star' Muth had been expected to start as the favorite in Saturday's GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn, but trainer Bob Baffert wasn't satisfied with how a Feb. 18 workout at Santa Anita unfolded and declined to enter him.

Muth was clocked in :47.40 (10/128) while covering a half-mile “handily” to the inside of a workmate. But DRF.com's Steve Andersen reported that the move came during a time in morning training when another horse had been pulled up in the stretch with a fatal injury and the warning siren was blaring to alert other riders to pull up and get out of the way.

“He's not going to Arkansas,” Baffert told DRF. “He didn't get a proper work.”

Plan B was not disclosed.

Muth has already shipped cross-country and been scratched on the morning of a race, when Baffert backed the Good Magic colt out of the GI Hopeful S. at Saratoga on Labor Day, citing a “salty” field and a desire to try two turns at a later date.

That secondary option turned out to be the GI American Pharoah S. at Santa Anita Oct. 7, in which Muth manhandled an overmatched field at 2-5 odds.

Muth then ran second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile and started off his 3-year-old season with an assertive, 90-Beyer win in the GII San Vicente S. over seven furlongs.

3) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $336,750. Last start: WON Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

It can be hazardous to your bankroll to fall in love with deep closers in a 20-horse field and the list of Derby also-rans is littered with stout-hearted stayers who came up short because they either ran into traffic or ran out of real estate after circling wide to avoid trouble.

Speed-centric horses racing either on the front end or just off it have won eight of the last 10 Derbies, with Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 the off-the-pace exceptions.

But it's difficult not to take a shine toward 'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone after seeing this locomotive-like Gun Runner colt overcome both a slow pace and a sloppy, sealed racetrack when inhaling No. 4-ranked Track Phantom (Quality Road) in the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds.

Equipped with blinkers and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione (both first-time changes), Sierra Leone got bet down to 5-2 favoritism off an 11-week break after running second in the GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct.

He settled mid-pack, then uncorked a prolonged far-turn rally during which Gaffalione sat chilly before setting down his colt in the nine path for the drive.

Sierra Leone had his work cut out for him while still four lengths behind the pacemaker at the eighth pole, but steadily eroded the gap between him and the hard-trying Track Phantom.

The margin got sliced to two lengths inside the sixteenth marker, and even though Sierra Leone lugged in a bit–a habit carried over from his first two races–within a few strides it was evident that Gaffalione had timed his move perfectly, reeling in his target 50 yards from the wire while Sierra Leone extended his powerful finishing pop into the gallop-out.

Next up is the Apr. 6 GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

4) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L & N Racing LLC, Clark O Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-2-1, $365,000. Last start: 2nd in Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

Track Phantom's Feb. 17 birthday didn't end with a party in the Fair Grounds winner's circle. But his runner-up effort behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star S. didn't diminish his reputation as a straightforward speed horse who is capable of outrunning rivals for the lead, dictating the tempo, and then refusing to fold in the stretch. He was neither tiring nor quitting. He simply got collared by an A-list closer.

“He ran a great race but ended up just being second best,” said jockey Joel Rosario. “He tries hard every time and keeps getting better.”

This $500,000 KEESEP colt by Quality Road now has a foundation of six lifetime races, all at a mile or longer. In each of his last three two-turn starts, he has drawn either the outermost post (in fields of six and seven) or gate 11 of 12 (on Saturday). Yet Track Phantom has ably swatted back inside challengers by clearing them on the first turn.

With wins over the New Orleans track in both the Gun Runner S. and the GIII Lecomte S., plus his second-place finish over nine furlongs in the Risen Star, it's no surprise trainer Steve Asmussen has circled the Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles for Track Phantom's next start.

5) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 4-2-0-1, $1,127,250. Last start: 3rd Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S.

Since the advent of the Eclipse Awards, no 2-year-old champion colt has ever lost his first race back at age three and then won the Kentucky Derby.

After running a punchless third at 1-5 odds in the GIII Holy Bull S., wearing a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May might now seem too tall an order for juvenile champ Fierceness, especially considering trainer Todd Pletcher's plan all along was to have just one other pre-Derby start.

But all is not lost in terms of Derby aspirations for this 'TDN Rising Star.'

For starters, we're now firmly entrenched in the “less is more” era of prepping 3-year-olds to run 10 furlongs and Fierceness could easily cycle back to being a hot commodity with a big nine-furlong effort in the Mar. 30 GI Florida Derby.

Fierceness, based on his five-race career arc, hasn't yet shown an ability to deliver back-to-back strong performances. Nor has he checked the “overcomes adversity” box.

But his two victories in his Saratoga debut and in the Breeders' Cup have both been delivered with enough of a “Wow!” factor to signal that this Repole Stable homebred has what it takes to assert himself at the top of the crop if he ever gets into a groove.

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-2-0, $257,400. Last start: WON Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Dornoch hammered for $325,000 at KEESEP in 2022, a price that now looks like a bargain considering his older brother, Mage, at the time was an unknown colt four months away from winning his career debut and nine months away from soaring home first at 15-1 in the Kentucky Derby.

By way of comparison, four months after Mage's career-defining Derby victory, the next foal out of the mare Puca, a colt by McKinzie, sold for $1.2 million at the 2023 edition of KEESEP.

Trainer Danny Gargan has spent the better part of his winter at Palm Meadows trying to get Dornoch to maintain focus. Gargan doesn't want a repeat of the antics that Dornoch displayed when winning the Remsen S.

In that nine-furlong stakes, Dornoch outgunned five rivals for the lead, took mid-race pace pressure, repulsed fresh challengers on the far bend, then got to “goofing off” in the stretch according to Gargan, brushing the inside rail before re-surging to snatch back the lead from No. 3-ranked Sierra Leone.

Although Dornoch has raced on or near the front in all four of his races, Gargan said after the Remsen that a change in tactics might be a worthwhile experiment. He believes that by coming from a bit farther off the pace, Dornoch will see other horses and remain more mentally locked in on his task.

We'll find out in the GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 2.

7) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $79,200. Last start: WON Feb. 11 Santa Anita AOC.

Maymun's one-mile allowance victory at 3-10 odds at Santa Anita didn't vault him any higher in these rankings. But the effort did maintain his perfect record while posing an open question about what this colt might do when tasked with tougher competition after being unveiled with a flourish in a 'TDN Rising Star' sprint romp back on Jan. 20.

Breaking from the rail in his second lifetime start Feb. 11, this son of Frosted brushed a foe at the break, then sideswiped stablemate and second-favorite Imagination (Into Mischief) when bearing out into the first turn.

Flavien Prat settled Maymun into a slower second-quarter split down the backstretch. The real running started three-eighths out when Imagination engaged Maymun from the outside and the pace ratcheted up into a more spirited cadence while the two Bob Baffert trainees peeled off from the pack.

Imagination (previous Beyers 70, 78, 78) clearly attained the lead on three distinct occasions from the quarter to the sixteenth poles while never quite putting away Maymun for good.

But Maymun clawed back a half-length deficit inside the final 100 yards, winning by a neck through a final eighth in :12.83 while 10 1/2 lengths clear of the three remaining stragglers.

Maymun's winning time of 1:36.65 equated to an 89 Beyer, a four-point haircut off his 93-Beyer debut.

8) CONQUEST WARRIOR (c, City of Light–Tea Time, by Pulpit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-Betz/B&K Canetti/J.Betz/CoCo Equine/D.J. Stables (KY); T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,000,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $52,200. Last start: WON Jan. 13 Gulfstream MSW.

Conquest Warrior, dubbed a 'TDN Rising Star' off an adversity-overcoming maiden win going a mile through traffic in his second lifetime race Jan. 13 at Gulfstream, will make his next start there for trainer Shug McGaughey in either an allowance/optional claimer at 1 1/8 miles Feb. 29 or in the Fountain of Youth S. at 1 1/16 miles two days later.

“Ideally, the allowance race goes and we get that next little step into him without quite going into the deep end,” Ernie Retamoza, the manager for owner Courtlandt Farms, told TDN's Steve Sherack last week. “But with the way that he ran and the way he's trained since, I think Shug feels like if the allowance doesn't go, we're sure not gonna sit around and wait on another one. We're gonna go ahead and get him going and see if he can take us there.”

The stout-framed $1-million KEESEP colt has breezed four times since his last start, including two “bullet” clockings at four and five furlongs at Payson Park.

“He's trained really well and came out of that race in great order,” Retamoza said. “He's had some [fast] workouts, really atypical of Shug's horses. Shug doesn't fire bullets all the time, but that colt kind of does. Hopefully, that's a good indicator of what kind of horse he is and where we're headed. Those good horses work fast, that's just the way it is.”

9) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-2-1-0, $475,600. Last start: 4th Nov. 3 GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.

This son of Into Mischief started his career in three sprints, and while his best races have been at seven furlongs and a one-turn mile, it's noteworthy that his dam's only two wins in Great Britain came over 1 1/2 miles and 1 3/4 miles.

This 'TDN Rising Star' was installed as the 6-5 morning line favorite for Saturday's Rebel S. at Oaklawn, and trainer Brad Cox is hoping the 1 1/16-miles distance will be a launch pad for Timberlake to earn Derby qualifying points in his sophomore debut.

Timberlake's fourth-place try as the 3-1 third choice in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile was essentially over before the first turn when he resisted efforts to settle and never fired when called upon for run.

But go two starts back in his past performances, and that emphatic sloppy-track pasting of a GI Champagne S. field that included eventual champ Fierceness could be the race that is the more useful benchmark for prognosticating Timberlake's future.

Florent Geroux won't be aboard on Saturday for the first time in Timberlake's five-race career. He's booked to ride Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming) for Cox in the $20-million G1 Saudi Cup. Christian Torres will pick up the mount.

10) LOCKED (c, Gun Runner–Luna Rosa, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Walmac Farm; B-Rosa Colasanti (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $425,000 yrl '22 KEESEP). Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-0-2, $608,400. Last start: 3rd Nov. 3 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

'TDN Rising Star' Locked was the beaten favorite when third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and his sophomore season was delayed when he had to miss the Feb. 10 GIII Davis S. at Tampa after spiking a fever.

But bettors haven't forgotten that this $425,000 KEESEP colt put up mid-90s Beyer numbers three times at age two, and his win in the Oct. 7 GI Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland was punctuated by Locked twice re-seizing the lead inside the eighth pole.

As such, he was installed as a 16-1 choice in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool that closed Sunday, the same price as 2-year-old champ and stablemate Fierceness.

Trainer Todd Pletcher plans to start Locked in the Fountain of Youth S., which could end up luring three Top 12 contenders.

11) MYSTIK DAN (c, Goldencents–Ma'am, by Colonel John) O/B-Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-1-0, $510,110. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Southwest S.

Last fall, trainer Kenny McPeek started this Goldencents colt's career by running twice in sprints and three times within a 33-day span. He now believes Mystik Dan's future will be in longer races with more time between starts.

After Mystik Dan's eight-length, 101-Beyer GIII Southwest S. score, McPeek told the TDN Writers' Room podcast that, “This horse is really fast. He has been from the beginning. Initially, I ran him twice in sprint races and after I did that, I kind of regretted it a little bit because we had to retool him a little bit. He's so quick that you had to kind of re-teach him and he needed to learn how to go longer.”

McPeek explained that this homebred for Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby, and 4G Racing made that learning process straightforward because of Mystik Dan's capacity to absorb and repeat what he has been schooled to do.

“This is the kind of mind that you need for these high-level races,” McPeek said.

After running up the score on a sealed, muddy track that he clearly relished, it remains to be seen whether Mystik Dan can repeat his gaudy Southwest performance on a dry surface going longer against a deeper field, with the Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby as his target.

12) SPEAK EASY (c, Constitution–Fun, by Harlan's Holiday) O-Siena Farm LLC & WinStar Farm LLC; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $42,000. Last Start: WON Jan. 27 Gulfstream MSW.

In the last five years, trainer Todd Pletcher has started 185 firsters at odds of 8-1 or higher. Of the 11 who won, according to DRF's Formulator, Speak Easy, who earned a 100 Beyer, is the only one to have run a figure greater than 90. That means this Constitution colt gets serious consideration for this list, even if it is getting a touch too deep into the season to have Derby aspirations for sophomores who've only started once.

This WinStar Farm homebred who races in partnership with Siena Farm broke from the one post in his Jan. 27 Gulfstream debut, sluiced through a four-way early duel to latch on to the 3-2 favorite, then relentlessly ran down that rival in a seven-furlong clocking that was :01.08 seconds faster than older fillies and mares ran in a Grade II stakes later that afternoon.

“We had him going pretty well last summer and was getting close to a race when he had a minor setback, so we gave him some time,” Pletcher said after that win. “The fact that he had a pretty good foundation last summer I think helped in preparing him for his debut. He'd always trained really well, but I think that performance even exceeded our expectations.

“If we get the opportunity to run in an allowance race, that could be an option,” Pletcher continued. “I guess running as fast as he did, if he had to go into a stakes, I suppose you could make an argument for that as well.”

The post TDN Sophomore Top 12: ‘Rising Stars’ Anchor Top Three Spots appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Even though the official Derby qualifying points leaderboard omits those horses, TDN's Top 12 will continue to include them for the time being on the basis that 1) the situation could change; 2) the performances of those horses represent significant benchmarks in establishing the pecking order for everyone else, and 3) there is no point at this still-early stage of the Triple Crown campaign to dismiss the accomplishments of the nation's top colts, regardless of whether they end up in the Derby or not.

1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist–Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $216,600. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Robert F. Lewis S.

Undefeated kingpin Nysos (Nyquist) extended the already sizable gap back to his next closest competitors with a thorough and professional clock-cleaning of six overmatched rivals in Saturday's GIII Robert Lewis S. at Santa Anita. The effort stood out because it was delivered in a scintillating style that underscored both the colt's level of self-assurance and his athletic prowess.

This 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' from trainer Bob Baffert's barn has now scored at six, seven and eight furlongs, winning by a combined 26 3/4 lengths while earning Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 97 at age two prior to uncorking a wowza 105 for his sophomore debut.

The light-on-his-feet Nysos ($130,000 KEENOV, $150,000 FTKOCT, $550,000 OBSAPR) glided under the wire by 7 ½ lengths. Flavien Prat could have nudged that margin into double digits had he not begun the gearing-down process more than a sixteenth of a mile before the finish.

After breaking a beat slowly then opting not to go into chase mode to reel in a breakaway pacemaker, Prat's only taxing tactical decision came on the far turn when he opted to slice Nysos to the inside of one rival then come around the other tiring two. A hustling hand ride between the five-sixteenths and eighth poles was all it took to elicit the desired gear without Nysos needing to demonstrate how much torque might remain in reserve.

“He stumbled a bit leaving there, but he was in a good spot,” Baffert said. “Prat rode him with a lot of confidence, he knows the horse well. I love the fact that he has speed and he proved he can do two turns. He has a great mind. He is a really good colt. You can just sit there and push the button at any time. It makes it so much easier for the riders, but I still get a little nervous.”

2) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

With three wins and two seconds from five lifetime races and a classy, all-business style, Muth ($190,000 KEESEP and $2 million OBSMAR) is in the top tier among the Bob Baffert's per-usual loaded stable of sophomores.

Oddly enough, this son of Good Magic's best race Beyer-wise (a 95 in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile) was his least visually impressive performance. Even with a Santa Anita home-track advantage and a no-excuse stalking trip, this 'TDN Rising Star' had to be driven hard in an unsuccessful attempt to match strides in upper stretch with eventual divisional champ Fierceness.

But Muth's co-lowest career Beyer of 90 in the Jan. 6 GIII San Vicente S. is the opposite, with the effort seeming better to the eye than the speed figure it earned.

The San Vicente could turn out to be an extremely useful seven-furlong speed sharpener for Muth, who shadowed two early leaders before running up the score at will while ridden out under the wire.

That effort whets the appetite for another two-turn engagement. But since Baffert's style is generally not to disclose stakes engagements until at or just before entry time, we're left to guess-although we do know that preps at Santa Anita and Oaklawn have historically been his most-preferred options.

Prior to running second in the Breeders' Cup, Muth was already a winner over 1 1/16 miles against Grade I company. He scored in the Oct. 7 American Pharoah S. by forcing the issue from fourth, then tipping out to accost the leaders off the turn without needing much encouragement to wrest control of the race.

3) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $96,750. Last start: 2nd Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) is targeting the GII Risen Star S. for his 2023 debut. That nine-furlong New Orleans race will be the first of two projected Derby preps at age three for trainer Chad Brown, which would give this colt three straight 1 1/8 mile races prior to attempting 10 furlongs in Louisville

This FTSAUG $2.3 million sales topper looked like the winner in the closing stages of the Dec. 2 GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct when he rallied seven wide against the teeth of a sealed-track speed bias. But Sierra Leone lugged in late and lost the lead to Dornoch (Good Magic), who prevailed by a nose.

That two-turn try was Sierra Leone's only other race after winning his one-turn-mile debut Nov. 4 at Aqueduct. After a slight bobble at the break, this colt settled next to last, overcame several minor momentum stalls on the backstretch and turn, swung five wide off the bend, then started to rally with authority. Despite twice shifting off the heels of rival runners, Sierra Leone was motoring late once he got straightened out.

The on-paper strength of that maiden win has been validated by short-priced, next-out wins by the second- and fourth-place finishers: Runner-up Change of Command is currently parked at No. 9 on the TDN Top 12 list after winning two subsequent starts at Gulfstream, while Tuscan Gold (Medaglia d'Oro) was named a fellow 'Rising Star' after a 6 1/4-length maiden romp at Gulfstream Jan. 31.

4) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L & N Racing LLC, Clark O Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-3-1-1, $285,000. Last start: WON Jan. 20 GIII Lecomte S.

Track Phantom will celebrate his Feb. 17 birthday by riding a three-race win streak into the Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds for trainer Steve Asmussen.

This $500,000 KEESEP colt by Quality Road is on a path that could end up shadowing the career arc of another Asmussen trainee, Epicenter, who displayed a similar speed-centric style in 2021-22 while winning three of four stakes (barely losing the fourth by a head) on the New Orleans prep path.

On the strength of his GII Louisiana Derby victory, Epicenter ended up starting favored in the Kentucky Derby, where he had the race won in the shadow of the wire before 80-1 shocker Rich Strike blew by from out of nowhere in the final few jumps. Epicenter later won the 10-furlong GI Travers S. and was crowned champion 3-year-old colt.

Like Track Phantom seems to be doing now, Epicenter didn't wow anyone early on with flash and panache. But by the first Saturday in May, Epicenter had earned respect for his steady, reliable way of always showing up.

Track Phantom owns a Beyer progression 74, 81, 88, 89 and 90 in five starts, all at a mile or longer, and in his trio of two-turn scores he's showed a knack for deploying gate speed without being fazed by rail-running rivals trying to disrupt his rhythm with keyed-up tactics.

This colt's 2 3/4-length wiring in the GIII Lecomte S. might seem like an artifact of a tepid tempo. But the visual at the quarter pole of Track Phantom easily opening up while an all-out favorite was under futile urging and not making up ground behind him speaks strongly in support of Track Phantom's ability to settle into a comfortable cadence, then fend off anyone who makes a serious run at him.

Fierceness | Benoit

5) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: 4-2-0-1, $1,127,250. Last start: 3rd Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S.

You can pick among a variety of excuses for Fierceness's failed-to-fire third in the GIII Holy Bull S., and some of them might even be valid: His break from the gate wasn't ideal. He had to be used harder than expected while losing ground on the first turn just to stay in touch with a very slow pace. He wasn't fully cranked for the effort off a three-month layoff.

The bottom line, though, is that this 'TDN Rising Star' by City of Light is the 2-year-old champ, and based on the way the Holy Bull came up on paper, the betting public had hammered him to 1-5 odds because he was supposed to throttle competition of this caliber, even if he was having an “off” day.

(As a public-service announcement for horseplayers who might want to save money next year–or next month, the two 1 1/16-miles graded stakes at Gulfstream are among the biggest money-burning races for favorites on the entire Derby prep calendar. Holy Bull faves have now gone down in flames in seven of the last eight runnings, and the fave in the GII Fountain of Youth S. has lost 12 of the last 17 editions.)

But back to Fierceness: This is not a “toss the baby out with the bathwater” type of disappointment that gets this colt voted off the Top 12 island. The Repole Stable homebred reportedly exited Saturday's race none the worse for wear, according to trainer Todd Pletcher. Based on the rip-roaring display of power Fierceness unleashed in the Breeders' Cup last November, it's conceivable that he rebounds in his one remaining prep (yet to be determined) and coasts into Louisville as a formidable force.

It's still early enough in the Derby season to be forgiving. But that will get more difficult as the prep-race cadence quickens and the plot thickens.

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $257,400. Last start: WON Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Because Dornoch is the full brother to last year's Derby winner, Mage, this son of Good Magic is destined to be saddled with outsized, and perhaps unfair, expectations.

But if Dornoch's focus ever manages to catch up with his large, brawny frame, this colt is going to be a legitimate Triple Crown threat.

This $325,000 KEESEP trainee for Danny Gargan kicked off his career with a pair of runner-up efforts before wiring a 1 1/16-mile maiden field Oct. 14 at Keeneland by 6 1/2 lengths.

Tasked with nine-furlongs and a sealed, muddy surface at Aqueduct in the Remsen S., Dornoch outgunned five rivals for the lead, took pressure from a 27-1 shot, swatted back bids from fresh challengers on the far bend, then brushed the rail and re-surged to steal the lead late from No. 3-ranked Sierra Leone.

The Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream will be next, and Dornoch is two breezes back into his training routine at Palm Meadows for that Mar. 2 stakes.

7) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $39,000. Last start: WON Jan. 20 Santa Anita MSW.

Maymun ($50,000 KEESEP, $900,000 OBSAPR) split horses early, shot straight to the lead, and set a spirited pace under pressure before shrugging off three wilting rivals at the quarter pole and cantering home by 7 1/2 easy lengths in his Jan. 20 unveiling over 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita (93 Beyer).

This son of Frosted out of an Indian Charlie mare earned 'TDN Rising Star' status for the effort.

He was no secret to the betting public, as evidenced by 9-10 favoritism. Maymun had been on the radar of many who had pegged him as a horse of interest after seeing him breeze a furlong in :9 3/5 prior to the Ocala auction.

“He was ridiculously fast,” trainer Bob Baffert had said of the colt shortly after the sale.

“This was one of the best horses in the sale, I thought,” bloodstock agent Donato Lanni said last spring. “He deserved to bring that kind of money.”

8) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution—Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $237,350. Last start: WON Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S.

Add Catching Freedom to the list of Top 12 colts aiming for the Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. Trainer Brad Cox envisions that Feb. 17 start as a springboard to the Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby as the final Kentucky Derby prep for this son of Constitution.

Cox has won the Arkansas Derby in each of the last two seasons, with Cyberknife and Angel of Empire.

After breaking his maiden in a one-turn mile and running a decent fourth in a 1 1/16-mile allowance (both at Churchill), this $575,000 KEESEP colt rode the rail near the back in the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn before unwinding with a long, grind-down rally. Catching Freedom finished up with head cocked out to the grandstand, and it took him a while to swap leads in the lane, but those aren't major concerns at this still-early point in his development.

Catching Freedom's form got a boost over the weekend when the fifth- and second-place finishers out of the Smarty Jones came back to run one-two in the GIII Southwest S.

9) CHANGE OF COMMAND (c, Into Mischief–Moi, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales history: $570,000 Wlg '21 FTKNOV; $1,050,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $113,300. Last start: WON Jan. 5 Gulfstream AOC.

Change of Command is expected to be entered Wednesday in the GIII Sam Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs. He'll be well regarded in the betting, but be aware that the Davis is another Florida winter prep stakes with a reputation for being a black hole for favorites. They've lost five of the last six runnings.

This Shug McGuaghey-trained son of Into Mischief ($570,000 FTKNOV, $1.05 million KEESEP) debuted in the slop at Saratoga when fourth over six furlongs behind eventual 2-year-old champ Fierceness (a race that produced three next-out winners).

Then he led to mid-stretch, got passed by a flying 4-to-5 fave, and was necked for the place spot over the same distance Oct. 1 at Aqueduct.

In start number three at the Big A Nov. 4, this colt shot straight to the lead over a one-turn mile only to be reeled in by the No. 3-ranked Sierra Leone.

Coming off that second-place try, he tried seven furlongs at Gulfstream Dec. 17. Change of Command broke alertly, conceded the lead while stalking inside, edged up from third to second a half-mile out, then cut to the two path to go after the leader. Clearly in front by the five-sixteenths pole, Change of Command opened up under light encouragement to win by 6 1/2 lengths (77 Beyer).

Change of Command followed that up with an 83-Beyer allowance score Jan. 5 over 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream, capitalizing on a trouble-free stalking trip to wear down a pesky pacesetter.

Conquest Warrior | Lauren King

10) CONQUEST WARRIOR (c, City of Light–Tea Time, by Pulpit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-Betz/B&K Canetti/J.Betz/CoCo Equine/D.J. Stables (KY); T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,000,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $52,200. Last start: WON Jan. 13 Gulfstream MSW.

The massive-framed Conquest Warrior (City of Light) got sandwiched at the break, shuffled to last, then repeatedly ran into traffic while trying to uncoil in his maiden win in a Gulfstream one-turn mile Jan. 13.

Although his 84 Beyer for the first-time-Lasix effort didn't exactly leap off the charts, the victory was notable more for the “how he did it” factor rather than “how fast.” Its visual impression alone was worthy of 'TDN Rising Star' honors.

“I was surprised he broke the way he did,” McGuaghey said of the $1 million KEESEP colt. “I knew he'd be back and then finish. I was surprised by the effort he put in today with the trip he had for a young horse.”

McGuaghey's next-race preference for maiden-breaking 3-year-olds at this stage of the season is generally an allowance race at either Gulfstream or Tampa rather than a stakes.

11) MYSTIK DAN (c, Goldencents–Ma'am, by Colonel John) O/B-Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $510,110. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Southwest S.

Mystik Dan's 11-1 splashdown win by eight lengths in the Southwest S. represented a tactical turnaround that trainer Kenny McPeek had been trying to bring about via morning training after four previous starts in which this Goldencents colt had raced on or near the lead.

“He needed to learn how to rate,” McPeek said. “He needed to learn how to settle off horses and maintain that late punch, and we've been doing that in the morning every day.”

But considering the muddy, sealed track conditions at Oaklawn, it was a dicey gamble for jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. to intentionally take back and tuck in after Mystik Dan had broken alertly and attained good early position into the first turn.

“I was fortunate enough, my horse left there quick enough, but not overly quick, to where I was able to get behind the leaders and make my way over to the fence,” Hernandez said. “We were able to save ground on both turns. When we got to the second turn, I called on him and he picked it up. I was able to kind of just wait for a spot. When a seam opened up barely on the inside, he shot through there and did the rest for us.”

It helped that the two pacemaking favorites had already capitulated and that Mystik Dan only had to reel in the stretch leader with no other foes firing from the back of the pack.

But even though the pace setup was ideal, this homebred for Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby, and 4G Racing finished up under his own power with a final sixteenth timed in 5.93 seconds, an eye-catching fractional clocking considering Hernandez had dialed him down late.

The Beyer came back as 101, which is 19 points higher than Mystik Dan's last effort, but within range of the 96 this colt earned when sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs Nov. 12 at Churchill.

12) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $475,600. Last start: 4th Nov. 3 GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.

Timberlake (Into Mischief) got crowned a 'TDN Rising Star' in start number two on July 21, a nine-length blowout over seven furlongs at Ellis Park that yielded three next-out winners.

His beaten-favorite try in the GI Hopeful S. at Saratoga was hallmarked by a horror trip in which this Brad Cox trainee broke to the back, rushed up, then was continually boxed and blocked before bulling through to seize the lead at the eighth pole, only to get collared by a 54-1 shot in the final stages.

Bettors let him drift up to 4.9-1 odds in the GI Champagne S., and although the narrative of that race has unfairly evolved as Timberlake winning because odds-on Fierceness threw in a clunker, Timberlake was no slouch on his own merits. He edged up into a fast pace, swung eight wide for the drive, then put away a pesky foe at the eighth pole over a sloppy, sealed track.

Timberlake's trip to California for the Breeders' Cup was not a memorable one. He resisted efforts to settle on the first turn, then had no true response when urged for run on the second bend. He managed a no-factor fourth and has been freshened since.

Cox said last week the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn is a possible target for the Fair Grounds-based Timberlake.

“He's pointing for it,” Cox said. “We've got to see how our works go over the next several weeks, but he's doing well. The other race in play for him would probably be the [one-mile Mar. 2 GIII] Gotham [S.] at Aqueduct,” Cox said. “He did win up in New York.”

The post TDN Derby Top 12: Ace On Top, Rest of Deck Gets a Good Reshuffling appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist–Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $96,600. Last start: WON Nov. 19 GIII Bob Hope S.

Nysos has won two West Coast sprints with devastating ease by a combined 19 1/4 lengths while pairing Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 97, earning 'TDN Rising Star' accolades, and giving off the impression he has the mental makeup and physical prowess to handle tougher competition at longer distances.

This Nyquist colt out of a Bernardini mare went through the auction ring three times ($130,000 KEENOV, $150,000 FTKOCT, $550,000 OBSAPR) before debuting over six furlongs Oct. 21 at Santa Anita. Seeing a Bob Baffert trainee win at first asking by 10 1/2 lengths isn't exactly a shocker, but not too many colts from that barn run up the score by such a gaudy margin while going off at 6-1 in the betting.

Start number two was the seven-eighths GIII Bob Hope S. at Del Mar Nov. 19, and that four-horse race ended up being more or less a schooling session for 2-5 fave Nysos, who, racing with blinkers off, broke alertly and settled in last while always in touch with the leaders behind brisk splits. His sustained move enabled him to power past overmatched rivals while well in hand and never being asked for maximum effort, scoring by 8 3/4 lengths.

Nysos has since recorded four regularly spaced workouts at Santa Anita and seems certain to next surface in a two-turn stakes, perhaps the Jan. 27 GIII Southwest S. over 1 1/16 miles or the Feb. 3 GIII Lewis S. at a mile.

For the third straight year, Churchill Downs has banished Baffert related to Medina Spirit's drug DQ from the 2021 Derby, and his trainees are prohibited from earning qualifying points. However, the focus for TDN's Top 12 writeups will be on where Baffert's horses fit in the overall Derby picture and not the trainer's eligibility status.

2) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $1,102,750. Last start: WON Nov. 4 GI FanDuel Breeders Cup Juvenile.

A two-prep path to Louisville–the Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S. and Mar. 30 GI Florida Derby–is trainer Todd Pletcher's plan for GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile victor and likely 2-year-old champ Fierceness.

This 'TDN Rising Star' and Repole Stable homebred by City of Light powered home by 11 1/4 lengths (95 Beyer) as the 11-10 winner of his debut sprint at Saratoga over a sealed, muddy track. That wet-track fondness didn't carry over to the sloppy

GI Champagne S. at Aqueduct, when the odds-on Fierceness lunged and got bumped at the break, loomed boldly with a four-wide move, then splashed home punchless in the stretch.

Off that seventh-place drubbing, the betting public abandoned Fierceness at 16-1 in the Breeders' Cup. He responded by trouncing the Juvenile field by 6 1/4 lengths en route to a 105 Beyer victory.

This colt checked a lot of boxes that day by showing speed in hand from the gate, a willingness to latch onto a pacemaker, good responsiveness to cues to quicken, and an ability to ratchet into a higher gear without appearing fully torqued before galloping out well ahead of everyone else.

Fierceness only had to repel one single bid in upper stretch before cruising home in the Juvenile, a race in which the top three betting choices all failed to fire without obvious excuse. The fizzling of the faves might have indicated that the race wasn't that deep. But now, two months in the rear-view mirror, the Juvenile looks like it could be shaping into a key race, with its strength on paper solidifying after two of the four horses to run back won stakes in their next-out starts.

Fierceness | Benoit

The biggest hurdle for Fierceness might end up being historical: Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Kentucky Derby wins from 39 runnings (Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016). Even some of the most electrifying 2-year-olds who excelled over 1 1/16 miles on the first Saturday of November have had trouble outrunning that daunting metric going 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

3) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

Muth (Good Magic) was named a 'TDN Rising Star' June 18 when he uncorked an 8 3/4-length debut win. With four total races at age two that included two routes and a Grade I win in the American Pharoah S., trainer Bob Baffert opted to sharpen this colt's speed by picking the Jan. 6 GIII San Vicente S. at seven furlongs for Muth's first start at three.

This $190,000 KEESEP and $2 million OBSMAR colt earned a no-nonsense win by assertively stalking two pacemakers and breaking away at will to earn a 91 Beyer in the San Vicente, meaning Muth has now run at least a 90 Beyer in all five lifetime races.

“This horse has a lot of class. He's learning a lot,” said jockey Juan Hernandez, who has been aboard Muth for all three wins and two seconds. “I think he finally learned to run by himself because he broke really quick, and he saw the other two horses in front of me and he just relaxed really well behind them.”

Muth ran second behind Fierceness in the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita. He enjoyed a primo stalking trip over his home track, and seemed poised to take off in tandem with that rival on the far turn. But by the quarter pole Muth was already being driven hard, and he had no response to match Fierceness's full-flight winning move.

Fierceness holds the head-to-head edge. But Muth owns the broader body of work, and I wouldn't bet against him the next time he hooks up with Fierceness.

Given that these two colts are based on opposite coasts, that rematch is unlikely to happen until the Kentucky Derby itself.

4) BORN NOBLE (c, Constitution–Zapperkat, by Ghostzapper) 'TDN Rising Star' O-St Elias Stable & West Point Thoroughbreds; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $725,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $36,000. Last start: WON Dec. 30 Gulfstream MdSpWt.

Bet to 13-10 favoritism first time out going seven furlongs at Gulfstream, Born Noble (Constitution) immediately put himself into the race, pressing the pacemaking second-fave from the outside.

Irad Ortiz Jr. nudged this $725,000 KEESEP colt forward, got on even terms with the leader through the turn, and by the quarter pole forced his foe into submission while still being hand-ridden.

But once alone on the lead and set down for the drive, Born Noble came unglued, veering sharply inward despite left-handed stick work and a right-handed yank of the reins. He remained on his left lead until just prior to the sixteenth pole, but Ortiz's rousing did spark a noticeable uptick in acceleration through mid-stretch before Born Noble got geared down while 5 1/2 lengths clear under the wire.

The post-race focus might be on this firster's obvious greenness. But a glimmer of gravitas also shone through, and in the long view, Born Noble's zig-zagging antics didn't resonate as anything that can't be smoothed out with experience.

He earned 'TDN Rising Star' status and a 93 Beyer–although precise figure-making can get tricky on a day like Dec. 30, when a “good” Gulfstream surface was drying out to “fast” and there were only three total dirt races (all at different distances) for comparison on the card.

5) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $96,750. Last start: 2nd Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Sierra Leone (Gun Runner), the FTSAUG $2.3 million sales topper, in some ways ran a better race than winner Dornoch (Good Magic) when on the losing end of a nose photo in the nine-furlong GII Remsen S. Dec. 2.

That's because this Chad Brown trainee built up serious back-of-the-pack momentum when rallying from last over a sealed, muddy track. His big, sweeping, seven-wide move was notable on a day when speed was so dominant in 10 races at Aqueduct that five winners wired their fields and the remaining five were either right up on the pace or re-rallied after losing their leads.

Sierra Leone sling-shotted to the lead but lugged in once it looked like he'd blow past Dornoch, who resiliently clawed back command while pinned near the inside rail. The two co-earned 91 Beyers.

Sierra Leone | Coglianese

It was a costly lack of late-race focus in terms of the race outcome, but still, it's the type of lapse you'd rather see in December than in the spring. It was only Sierra Leone's second lifetime start, and two turns against stakes company is never a slam-dunk for a first try off a debut maiden win, even one that stamped him as a 'TDN Rising Star'.

Brown told DRF.com post-win that Sierra Leone reminds him a bit of Early Voting, another Gun Runner colt he trained to a win in the 2022 GI Preakness S.

“Now that he's lugged in [twice], I'll fool around with a little equipment to straighten him out,” Brown told DRF. “He's got a world of ability so we'll take him down [to Florida], regroup a little bit, and map out a campaign that hopefully gets him to the first Saturday in May.”

6) PARCHMENT PARTY (c, Constitution–Life Well Lived, by Tiznow) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-B Flay Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $450,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $141,960. Last start: WON Nov. 9 Churchill AOC.

'TDN Rising Star' Parchment Party, a large-framed June 5 foal, rallied stoutly up the rail from last and determinedly churned his way through traffic when winning a two-turn Churchill allowance Nov. 9 with a four-wide sweep. This son of Constitution wasn't fully dialed in and a looked touch unfocused through the final furlong, but he also wasn't even close to scraping bottom effort-wise, either.

The third- and fourth-place horses in that race won allowance and stakes engagements in their next-out starts.

Parchment Party is bred on the same cross that produced Tiz the Law, who won multiple Grade I stakes in 2020 (Travers, Florida Derby, the nine-furlong Belmont S.), plus fellow 'Rising Star' and 2022 GIII Peter Pan S. victor We the People.

A $450,000 KEESEP colt out of trainer Bill Mott's barn, Parchment Party got sent to Payson Park following his 2-for-2 start, but he hasn't had a published workout since Dec. 16.

7) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L & N Racing LLC, Clark O Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-1-1, $165,000. Last start: WON Dec. 23 Gun Runner S.

Track Phantom, a $500,000 KEESEP colt by Quality Road, doesn't leap out as a no-brainer Derby prospect. But the speed-centric winner of the Gun Runner S. does have upside appeal when you read between the lines of his past performances.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has started him four times, twice in one-turn miles and twice at 1 1/16 miles, with a Beyer progression of 74, 81, 88 and 89. Yet one intangible that doesn't come across on paper is how level-headedly Track Phantom has dealt with keyed-up rivals to his inside in both of his two-turn races.

In his Nov. 25 maiden-breaker, he forced the fractions with a rank runner pinned down at the fence from the entrance of the first turn to the start of the second, then repulsed a challenge from the only other horse to draw within a half-length on the turn. Roused for run three-sixteenths out, this colt showed a hint of another gear a furlong from the wire before being wrapped up late.

Facing winners for the first time against stakes company at Fair Grounds, Track Phantom was keen to make the lead from his outside post in the Gun Runner S., but a 36-1 speedster slipped up the open rail. The duo sparred down the backstretch before Track Phantom seized the lead three-eighths out and held off bids from two fresh challengers, including the 1-2 favorite.

“It's impressive that both of his two turn races have been victories,” Asmussen said post-win. “I actually thought they went too fast in the middle [of the Gun Runner]. You know, [a :46.93 half] here in a two-turn race, you don't see horses see it out very often.”

The Jan. 20 GII Lecomte S. is next.

8) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $257,400. Last start: WON Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Dornoch (Good Magic) figures to be one of the more intriguing story lines as Derby 150 approaches because he's a full brother to last year's Derby winner, Mage.

This $325,000 KEESEP colt started off his career for trainer Danny Gargan with a pair of seconds, one in a Saratoga maiden sprint and another in the Sapling S. going a mile at Monmouth. He then wired a 1 1/16-mile maiden field at Keeneland Oct. 14, running up the score by 6 1/2 lengths.

Dornoch (inside) | Sarah Andrew

Dornoch won the Remsen S. at Aqueduct by outsprinting five other rivals for the lead into the first turn over a speed-favoring track. Settling at the fence while pressured by a 27-1 shot, he knocked back bids from a couple of new challengers on the far turn, then fought gamely to surge back in front after seemingly being passed for good by Sierra Leone.

He also brushed the rail in upper stretch, yet somehow overcame that too.

“It's crazy. Usually when a horse hits the rail at the eighth pole like he did, they just stop running altogether,” Gargan said post-win. “I can't believe he re-rallied after that. He did see the other horse and get running back at him, but hitting the rail knocked him off stride and then it took him a few jumps to get back going.”

Gargan mentioned the Mar. 2 GII Fountain of Youth S. over 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream as a possible next start, with the Feb. 3 GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct in the mix (which would be a second straight nine-furlong race for Dornoch).

9) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution–Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $237,350. Last start: WON Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S.

Catching Freedom (Constitution) broke his maiden in a one-turn mile at Churchill, ran a credible fourth behind Parchment Party in a 1 1/16-mile allowance, then annexed the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn with a long, grind-'em-down rally (87 Beyer).

This $575,000 KEESEP colt rode the rail near the back in his stakes debut, sliced between rivals entering the far turn, got second run at a dueling duo, spun widest in the five path, then finished in workmanlike fashion with his head cocked to the grandstand before widening the winning margin to 2 1/2 lengths.

“Very proud of the horse,” trainer Brad Cox said post-win. “I think he's still learning. I think he was a little green there down the lane, but overall showed that he does have a lot of stamina and talent.”

Catching Freedom is a half-brother to Bishops Bay (Uncle Mo), a stakes-placed sophomore who raced four times for Cox (different owners) in 2023. That colt had the distinction of posting Beyers of 97, 88, 97 and 96, and in one of those races Bishops Bay was beaten only a head by subsequent Belmont S. and Travers S. winner Arcangelo (Arrogate).

10) CHANGE OF COMMAND (c, Into Mischief–Moi, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales history: $570,000 Wlg '21 FTKNOV; $1,050,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $113,300. Last start: WON Jan. 5 Gulfstream AOC.

It took four well-spaced starts for this son of Into Mischief ($570,000 FTKNOV, $1.05 million KEESEP) to bust out of the maiden ranks at 2-5 odds at Gulfstream. But he's now won two in a row in Florida after an 83-Beyer allowance score Jan. 5 over 1 1/16 miles, capitalizing on a trouble-free stalking trip to wear down a pesky pacesetter.

Despite winning by a neck, trainer Shug McGuaghey said Change of Command “didn't want to finish as well as I'd like. I've got to do some work to figure things out. I hope this moves him forward. He had to kind of belly down and run, so that should help him. We'll take him back to Payson and find out.”

Change of Command had previously compiled a robust set of company lines while finishing respectably behind well-regarded juveniles in New York.

11) ETHAN ENERGY (c, Uncle Mo–Sass and Class, by Harlan's Holiday) O-Stonestreet Stables LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $34,250. Last start: Won Dec. 23 FG MdSpWt.

This Fair Grounds maiden-breaker for trainer Brad Cox hit the winner's circle in start number two Dec. 23, adding Lasix. removing blinkers, and stretching to 1 1/16 miles for a 5 1/4-length tally (83 Beyer).

Under a light hold on the outside while midpack behind a tepid tempo, Ethan Energy was encouraged to loop the group on the far turn. This Stonestreet homebred son of Uncle Mo stayed on and opened up under mild rousing through the lane, then got pushed out late under a steady hand ride before being geared down for the final stages.

His debut at Keeneland, in which Ethan Energy was off last and allowed to lag with only mild progress inside, has thus far yielded three next-out maiden winners. One of them, Legalize (Constitution), also won the Sugar Bowl S., which was two races later on the same card as Ethan Energy's maiden score.

12) CARBONE (c, Mitole–Treasure in Heaven, by Street Sense) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-L William & Corinne Heiligbrodt (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $153,000. Last start: WON Dec. 31 OP AOC.

This 'TDN Rising Star's sire, Mitole, was the blitzingly fast 2019 champion male sprinter. But there are enough longer-distance influences in Carbone's pedigree (Giant's Causeway and Seattle Slew up top, Street Sense for a damsire) to think he might stay on as a horse of interest as the prep season progresses.

Carbone has been in front at every call in his 2-for-2 career for trainer Steve Asmussen, and this homebred for William and Corinne Heiligbrodt has paired 85 and 86 Beyers while stretching out from six furlongs to a mile.

In his Oaklawn allowance win, Carbone effortlessly controlled the tempo and really only faced one serious challenge on the far turn, opening up under his own power and toying with that rival whenever he edged closer.

His run into the stretch provided a nice visual, with jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. sitting chilly atop this colt while every other horse in his wake was being driven. Carbone won by four, but it could have been more had the race not finished at the sixteenth pole under Oaklawn's short-stretch configuration for the mile distance.

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1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move rides a three-race win streak into Louisville, with each of his two-turn stakes scores punctuated by decisive inside moves. The final times from those victories in the GII Los Alamitos Derby, GII San Felipe S., and GI Santa Anita Derby represent the fastest clockings among all the 1 1/16-mile and 1 1/18-mile races on the “Road to the Derby” qualifying schedule in 2022-23.

Yet this Tim Yakteen-trained son of Practical Joke ($90,000 RNA KEESEP; $230,000 OBSAPR) projects to be an overlay in the Derby betting. The post draw will be a big factor in pegging everyone's pari-mutuel chances, but all things equal, Practical Move is likely to be overshadowed in the wagering by divisional champ Forte (Violence), and possibly even Tapit Trice (Tapit), two high-profile 'TDN Rising Stars' from Todd Pletcher's stable who are ranked at Nos. 2 and 5 on this list.

Beyond his own attributes, history is on Practical Move's side: Santa Anita Derby participants have accounted for 19 Kentucky Derby winners since 1940. In the past decade, the winners of the Santa Anita Derby went on to capture the Kentucky Derby in 2012, 2014 and 2018.

On Friday at Santa Anita, Practical Move worked a :47 half-mile in company (2/31), finishing slightly ahead of stablemate Kangaroo Court (Dads Caps), who is aiming for a start in the GII Pat Day Mile S. on the Derby undercard. Practical Move is scheduled to work once more in California on Friday before shipping to Churchill.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

The chief knocks against reigning champion Forte are primarily “on paper.”

The first is the daunting 38-year trend of only two GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners repeating in the Kentucky Derby. That means 95 % of the time since 1984, the best colt on the first Saturday in November is not the best on the first Saturday in May.

The second is the concerning decline of Forte's Beyer Speed Figures, which peaked at 100 in the Juvenile but slid to 98 in the GII Fountain of Youth S. and dipped again to 95 in the GI Florida Derby.

But Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) stands above his peers when it comes to intangibles that can't be quantified. Lanky, athletic and adaptable, he reliably finds ways to win, which he has done every time except once, and that lone loss is now nine months in the rear-view mirror.

Forte readily and willingly jumps into the bit when cued to quicken by regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr., and he finishes with his ears pricked, signaling he hasn't been fully extended. Among the Derby competitors this year, this son of Violence seems most likely to have a yet-to-be-seen stretch gear he hasn't been called upon to produce.

“Forte is a very straightforward horse to train,” said trainer Todd Pletcher after a 1:02 five-eighths breeze Friday at Churchill (29/33). “He's pushbutton.”

3) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying, a May 11 foal by Justify who is a half-brother to 2019 champion distaffer Midnight Bisou, has major mojo as a colt getting good at just the right time.

His tenacious second, beaten a neck by Tapit Trice in the GI Blue Grass S., was likely not his peak effort. More importantly, his speed-centric running style puts him on or near the lead in the Derby, which is the race's winning profile in eight of the last nine years.

“I expected him to win the Blue Grass,” trainer Brad Cox said Friday after watching Verifying train. “I thought he ran a winning race. He got beat by a very good horse.”

To have full faith in Verifying, you have to buy into the belief that he's truly turned a corner, development-wise, and will be able to put together back-to-back strong races, which has eluded him so far.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP) was an odds-on debut winner sprinting at Saratoga. He then ran second in the GI Champagne S., and trainer Brad Cox subsequently conceded that the colt “wasn't quite ready” for his sixth-place try in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Verifying matured over the winter, won an Oaklawn allowance by open lengths, then threw in a beaten-fave clunker when fourth in the GII Rebel S. He then “put things together in the Blue Grass, and has a lot of tactical speed that should play to his advantage in the Derby,” Cox said.

4) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Hit Show has moved around quite a bit in his career. He's raced at Keeneland, Churchill, Oaklawn and Aqueduct, and in between those two New York trips he was stabled at Fair Grounds. Trainer Brad Cox said last week one thing he's noticed about this 3-for-5 Candy Ride (Arg) homebred for Gary and Mary West is that Hit Show has handled every different experience without drama, and that he is quick to settle into his routine.

That's a nice mindset, especially for a colt who won't turn three until May 9.

Hit Show has won twice over nine furlongs and has upped his Beyer every time he's raced, most recently topping out at 93 when second, beaten a nose, as the middle horse who got pinballed in the three-way stretch scrum of the GII Wood Memorial S.

If you take the view that Hit Show will likely benefit in the long run from having been roughed up and not backing down, he's probably pretty high on your list.

But another way to look at the Wood is that Hit Show was an all-out fave who couldn't put away a maiden and a 59-1 shot.  If that's your takeaway, he's likely not in your top tier.

North of 20-1 on Derby day will probably be the price point to find out which assessment is correct.

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

The commanding stride of Tapit Trice is evocative of pure power, and the sustained, six-furlong move he unleashed when winning the Blue Grass S. left a positive visual impression that no other competitor on this year's Derby trail has matched.

But still, the huge question about his Derby chances centers on how far back this notoriously slow-starting son of Tapit will be, and whether or not he will be afforded a long and clear enough runway to attain his high-torque cruising speed.

This 'TDN Rising Star' likely has enough brute force to propel himself through any tight passage that jockey Luis Saez wants to shoot for. But once Tapit Trice builds up a full head of steam, don't expect him to be able to nimbly stop and restart his momentum through traffic the way a lighter-framed horse might be able to do.

This burly gray ($1.3 million KEESEP) stood out so much off his maiden win Dec. 17 that he made the initial TDN Top 12, ranked fourth.

Back on Jan. 3, I wrote that he demonstrated “raw, Derby-quality talent beneath a still-unpolished surface.”

It's now nearly four months later, and I still regard Tapit Trice highly–while still concerned if his trouble breaking alertly and needing to be scrubbed on for early run is going to cost him amid the chaos of the 20-horse Derby.

6) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

The headline writers are going to go bonkers with the “came back to life” hyperbole if Reincarnate wins the Derby. Although this colt does need some sort of transformational rebirth based on his winless form since January, this long-striding $775,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic colt is not as far-fetched a Derby proposition as he might seem.

Reincarnate has never been out of the money from seven starts, all at a mile or longer. He was most recently third in two Oaklawn stakes, first encountering trip trouble in the Rebel, then coming up punchless with a no-excuse stalking setup in the GI Arkansas Derby.

Maybe the two trips to Hot Springs from California just didn't agree with him. It also didn't help that when Reincarnate was back at home at Santa Anita, training was disrupted all winter long because of heavy rains.

But consider the John Velazquez factor. He's still America's premier big-race jockey when riding horses with the ability to control the pace. He's crossed the finish line first in three of the last six Derbies. All were on frontrunners. One was 12-1 and another was 8-1. What more do  you need to know?

7) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

The 3-for-3 Kingsbarns ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) projects to be a forward factor in the Derby, but it's not crucial that he be leading the pack.

Kingsbarns closed adeptly in his one-turn-mile winning MSW debut at Gulfstream after being covered up at the rail, caught in tight on the turn, then boxed and blocked at the top of the stretch. Tasked with two turns in a Tampa allowance, Kingsbarns conceded an ambitious lead, then reeled in a long-shot speedster to draw away by 7 ¾ easy lengths (85 Beyer).

He then found himself on the front end of a GII Louisiana Derby that projected on paper to have no one else vying for the lead, and this son of Uncle Mo cruised home unchallenged over 1 3/16 miles through somnambulant splits (:24.71, 49.50, 1:14.69, 1:39.13) and a 1:57.33 final time that was the slowest in four years since that stakes got elongated from nine furlongs. His Beyer of 95 compares to same-period Louisiana Derby winning Beyers of 91, 99 and 102.

“I think people gave Kingsbarns a discount because of the time of the Louisiana Derby,” Spendthrift Farm president Eric Gustavson said last week “I don't think you should be penalized by going to the front and putting everyone else to sleep like he did. We're pretty confident coming into the Derby.”

8) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 3rd in the GIII Lexington S. at Keeneland Apr. 15. Ky Derby Points: 46.

You can make a cogent case for Disarm improving in the Derby. Whether that advancement will be good enough to win is a separate question.

As a large-framed son of Gun Runner, he was green while third in his June 19 Churchill debut at 5 ½ furlongs. Then he earned 'TDN Rising Star' status with a blast-off, stretch-out Saratoga score over seven furlongs.

Shelved until a Feb. 19 Oaklawn allowance, this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred closed for second behind a wire-to-wire winner on a day when horses on the lead or just off it won seven of Oaklawn's nine races. And he was second again, with minor trip trouble, in the Mar. 25 Louisiana Derby behind lone-speed Kingsbarns, who wired the field on a day when 10 early-pace horses dominated in 11 Fair Grounds dirt races.

Disarm's appearance in the Apr. 15 GIII Lexington S. was only a points-earning exercise to ensure he qualified for the Derby, so beyond making a competent middle move to secure third, the colt was not asked for strenuous exertion three weeks ahead of his higher goal.

Disarm | Coady

9) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Trainer Brad Cox last week described Angel of Empire's progression from an “all legs” Pennsylvania-bred who began his career in modest races at Horseshoe Indianapolis to a “serious player” at the top level of the game who has filled out physically and gotten sharper mentally.

Angel of Empire ($32,000 RNA KEENOV; $70,000 KEESEP) is 4-for-6 lifetime while honing a keen knack for tracking targets and methodically reeling them in.

He's twice won nine-furlong stakes this season, and he ripped through a closing eighth in :12.12 in the Arkansas Derby, the fastest final furlong out of the nine stakes at 1 1/18 miles in the 2022-23 “Road to the Derby” points series.

This son of Classic Empire's company line from the Arkansas Derby got a boost on Saturday, when sixth-place finisher Red Route One (Gun Runner) came back to win the $200,000 Bath House Row S. over nine furlongs at Oaklawn.

10) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

Meet the intriguing wild card in the 2023 Derby. This $150,000 RNA at KEESEP generates rooting interest because he competes for an owner, trainer and jockey who have never participated in the Derby, and Two Phil's started as his career without much fanfare at non-traditional Derby-path tracks like Colonial Downs and Canterbury Park.

This son of Hard Spun attracted attention with a 5 1/4-length win at 7-1 odds in the GIII Street Sense S. at Churchill back on Oct 30. After running second in the GII Lecomte S. and third in the Risen Star S., trainer Larry Rivelli took a chance at bankrolling qualifying points against easier competition over the Tapeta surface in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway, and Two Phil's responded with a 101-Beyer trouncing.

Trouble is, no one seems to know whether to take that big fig at face value. It was earned over a non-dirt surface, and it clocks in at 13 points higher than the previous best number Two Phil's ever produced.

Even though Animal Kingdom (2011) and Rich Strike (2022) proved that Turfway's premier stakes can be a springboard to a blanket of roses, the remaining Derby starters out of the Ruby (or its differently named predecessors) have been a collective 0-for-20 in Louisville since that stakes was first run over a synthetic surface in 2006.

11) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

Mage still needs to work on his gate-breaking skills, and his relative inexperience of just three races since debuting Jan. 28 isn't ideal. But that sweeping, slingshot move he uncorked on the far turn of the Florida Derby will be remembered as his first true flash of Grade I talent if he can build on that effort and sustain his run deeper into the lane over 10 furlongs.

No one will hold it against Mage that he got outfinished in the Florida Derby by the better-seasoned Forte. If anything, Mage got style points for making a move-within-a-move when he dig in to repulse a mid-stretch bid from the eventual third-place finisher.

Still, the Florida Derby might not end up being a reliable measuring stick this year. Beyond Forte and Mage, the race has yielded no other Kentucky Derby qualifiers ranked within the current Top 20.

This son of Good Magic ($235,000 KEESEP; $290,000 EASMAY) breezed six furlongs in 1:14.78 Saturday at Gulfstream (1/1). Assistant trainer Gustavo Delgado, Jr., said that move will be the colt's final serious work, because at Churchill, “we just want him to get to know the track. We don't expect to do very much there, fitness-wise.”

12) LORD MILES (c, Curlin–Lady Esme, by Majestic Warrior) O/B-Vegso Racing Stable; T-Saffie Joseph, Jr. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-0-1, $451,100. Last Start: 1st GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 105.

Lord Miles (Curlin) paid $120 to win the Wood Memorial, gaining the upper hand (hoof?)  in a rough, three-way stretch fight.

That's the second time in three years a Wood winner has paid boxcars. Remember Bourbonic at 72-1 in 2021? He was 13th in the Derby. But it doesn't seem to matter if the Wood winner is a favorite or a long shot: The last Wood winner to capture the Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, and you have to time-travel back to 1981 to find the next closest, Pleasant Colony.

“He came out of the Wood well. He shipped back and he's held his weight,” trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr., said after a half-mile breeze Friday at Gulfstream in :47.05 (2/33).

Joseph acknowledged that “his race in the Wood isn't going to be good enough to win the Derby. He's going to have to improve again…. The biggest drawback with him has been his inconsistency. Sometimes he comes off the bridle and gives himself too much to do.”

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate:

13) Rocket Can (Into Mischief)

Rocket Can (Into Mischief), who celebrates his third birthday Apr. 28, will race with blinkers for the first time in the Derby, trainer Bill Mott confirmed after the colt breezed five furlongs in 1:01 Sunday (11/41) at Churchill Downs. “The one thing that [his beaten-fave fourth in the Arkansas Derby] told me is he still has more to give in the tank,” Mott said. “I don't think he's quite learned to give it his all. That's what you get this time of year with 3-year-olds, but they can improve quickly. He's got a lot of route pedigree on his bottom side being [out of a mare] by Tapit. We added blinkers in today's work and will for the race. Hopefully, that will help him go past horses when he runs up beside them.” Rocket Can, a $245,000 FTSAUG RNA gray, owns a win and a close second in two main-track starts at Churchill. His Oct. 30 allowance score in the slop there over 1 1/16 miles is notable for being .99 seconds faster than the clocking Two Phil's turned in when winning the same-day GIII Street Sense S.

14) Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits)

Derma Sotogake (Jpn) shares an Apr. 28 birthday with Rocket Can. This ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL son of Mind Your Biscuits wired the G2 UAE Derby, cracking the competition while still in hand before widening his margin to the wire under light encouragement. Kate Hunter, who represents the Japan Racing Association and is a Derby liaison for the two Japan-based entrants this year, told TDN's Katie Petrunyak that “Derma Sotogake was always impressive from the time I saw him in Saudi through Dubai. He is a beautiful horse and he moves really well. He has a fun personality. He's really sweet, but he's also full of fire.” But will he seek the lead in Louisville? “If Derma Sotogake is able to set his own pace and take things the way he wants to with no one challenging him, he might,” Hunter said.

Derma Sotogake | Coady

15) Sun Thunder (Into Mischief)

Sun Thunder, a late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG), still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks. But he's run well enough in four graded stakes preps this season (fourth, second, fifth and fourth) to rack up qualifying points behind heavier hitters like Tapit Trice, Kingsbarns, Angel of Empire, and the currently sidelined but formerly No 1-ranked 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo). He's scheduled for a workout on Wednesday. Brian Hernandez, Jr., will ride in the Derby.

16) Jace's Road (Quality Road)

'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road, who turns three Apr. 25, got an early birthday present Sunday when the defection of Blazing Sevens (Good Magic) nudged him off the also-eligible list and into the Derby. This $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road was most recently third in the Louisiana Derby. He's winless in two tries since Dec. 26, but the only two times he's ever been off the board were both over sloppy surfaces, once at Churchill and again at Oaklawn. Jace's Road generally has enough tactical speed to park himself close to the early pace. But we've yet to see him build off that prime positioning by combining it with a menacing, far-turn kick.

17) Raise Cain (Violence)

You don't see much of 1999 GI Belmont S. winner and 2000 older champion male Lemon Drop Kid in pedigrees these days, but that sturdy dose of female-family stamina underneath the sire Violence should give Raise Cain a reputable foundation for being able to get a distance of ground over dirt. But while that inherited ability is theoretically there, Raise Cain ($180,000 KEESEP; $65,000 RNA OBSOPN) is 0-for-3 around two turns. His best race was the Mar. 4 GIII Gotham S., a one-turn mile run over a muddy, sealed track in which Raise Can won by 7 ½ lengths and earned a 90 Beyer. He was wide and driving to get fifth in the Blue Grass, but realistically was not in the same league as one-two finishers Tapit Trice and Verifying, who finished necks apart while 5 3/4 lengths ahead of everyone else.

18) Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg})

Confidence Game ($25,000 KEESEP) is an efficient-striding colt with seven races of experience (five of them routes). This son of Candy Ride (Arg) earned a 94 Beyer by winning the Rebel S., but has not started since. That was a 11-point jump off his previous career-high Beyer, and he projects to need another significant uptick of seven or eight points to be in the hunt in the Derby. He's won two of four starts over “fast” Churchill dirt, which is a plus.

19) Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong)

The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) is seeking his first win since capturing the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26, but a wide trip might have hampered his chances when fifth in the G3 Saudi Derby. This son of the champion United States sprinter Drefong (¥70,000,000 JRHJUL) was also third, beaten 10 lengths by Derma Sotogake, in the UAE Derby. Japanese racing liaison Kate Hunter described the colt to TDN this week as being “wise beyond his years. He's such a calm 3-year-old that you would think he is five or six. That calmness and collectiveness will really come in handy on Derby day.”

20) Wild On Ice (Tapizar)

This Texas-bred homebred for Frank Sumpter won the GIII Sunland Derby in New Mexico with a 77 Beyer after sitting just behind an unsustainable speed duel. The second- and fifth-place finishers out of that race then tried the Santa Anita Derby but made no impact, finishing eighth and fifth. In two previous $100,000 stakes routes at Sunland, this son of Tapizar was beaten a combined 45 1/2 lengths.

The post TDN Derby Top 20: Cadence Quickens, Plot Thickens appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move has the distinction of being the only Derby contender this year to run two triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures at age three, earning a 100 in each of his last two wins, the GII San Felipe S. and the GI Santa Anita Derby.

Among all the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” qualifying races in 2022-23, this Tim Yakteen trainee also produced the two fastest final clockings at 1 1/16 miles (GII Los Alamitos Futurity and San Felipe), plus the quickest nine-furlong winning time (Santa Anita Derby).

Beyond the question of “how fast,” Practical Move rates highly from a “how he does it” perspective. Regular rider Ramon Vazquez should feel pretty confident he's on a colt who has enough tactical speed to be placed within the first flight and doesn't shy from slicing through tight inside passages. Practical Move's late-race torque is a proven commodity that he's used to his advantage in three consecutive rail-running victories.

Vazquez has had only one previous Derby mount, a trip-troubled 13th in 2015 aboard the 36-1 Mr. Z.

Although Practical Move's sire, Practical Joke, was a three-time Grade I winner in New York, he never won a two-turn race (fifth in the 2017 Derby). Maternal grandsire Afleet Alex, though, ran third in the 2005 Derby, then won both the GI Preakness S. and GI Belmont S.

Practical Move | Benoit

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte sports a daunting 6-for-7 career record and he hasn't had a single training setback at age three, winning the two prep races (GII Fountain of Youth S. and GI Florida Derby) that trainer Todd Pletcher said he would target after this tall, lanky colt won last November's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Peer closely at that past-performance block though, and you can see reasons why some handicappers will be willing to bet against this son of Violence on Derby Day.

Even if you don't believe in speed figures at their face-value level, it's concerning when any horse-let alone a divisional champion-regresses in his overall pattern from age two to three. Forte ran a 100 Beyer in the Juvenile, dipped to a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, then checked in with a 95 in the Florida Derby.

That Fountain of Youth slippage might be forgiven considering Forte prowled around the track like he knew he had the field at his mercy and was geared down in the final stages when his win was evident. The Florida Derby, though, featured robust early splits (it was the only nine-furlong prep this season in which the first three quarters were all clocked in sub-24 seconds). Yet when Forte unleashed his customary late kick, it came during a so-so final quarter in :25.72 and a tepid final eighth in :13.02.

Still, you have to respect that this is an A-level athlete who simply fires on the far turn every time out.

It's also noteworthy that Forte's three most visually appealing races (GI Breeders' Futurity, Juvenile, Fountain of Youth) all came over short-stretch configurations with the finish line at or near the sixteenth pole, a setup that does not traditionally favor horses kicking in from farther back. The Derby distance and Churchill's ample stretch both have the potential to work to Forte's advantage.

Forte | Lauren King

3) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Hit Show, a 3-for-5 Candy Ride (Arg) homebred for Gary and Mary West, has the distinction of going off favored in every one of his races. His three victories were open-length romps, and his only two losses were a second by a nose in the roughly run GII Wood Memorial (after overcoming post 12) and a fourth at age two in his first try against winners (when he bobbled at the break).

Although the two horses ranked above him-Practical Move and Forte-earned their spots based on proven ability, Hit Show is more of a speculative selection based on the assumption that he'll offer significantly overlaid value while being primed to peak on Derby Day.

Hit Show is a May 9 foal. Although exact foaling date records are sketchy prior to 1940, 11 known May foals have won the Derby dating to 1875. The most recent two were Authentic in 2020 (who won a Derby that was run in September) and Country House in 2019 (who crossed the wire second but was elevated to the win because of the disqualification of Maximum Security).

4) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP), like Hit Show, also won't technically turn three until after the Derby (May 11). But he ran a “wise beyond his age” second in the GI Blue Grass S., beaten only a neck after twice clawing back the lead in a heavyweight stretch smackdown with No. 5-ranked 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice (Tapit).

This Justify colt is a half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou. Beyond the Triple Crown-winning cachet atop his pedigree, Verifying's female family includes some overlooked nuggets. Damsire Repent was a hard-charging early favorite for the 2002 Derby before getting derailed from the Triple Crown series by an ankle injury. And Repent's sire, Louis Quatorze, wired the 1996 GI Preakness S.

A decent post draw and a clean break almost certainly puts Verifying in the hunt for the lead in the Derby, an obvious plus considering eight of the past nine Derbies have been won by horses either on the front end or forcing the issue.

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice “takes a little while to get going,” according to jockey Luis Saez. But once he picks up steam, look out. He rolled to victory from off the tailgate in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby, and looked beaten on the far turn of the Blue Grass S. before relentlessly reeling in Verifying to win a length-of-stretch battle.

Tapit Trice closed with gusto through a final furlong in :12.40, the fastest final eighth in the Blue Grass since Keeneland switched back to dirt in the fall of 2014. Even more impressive is that he launched his sustained move six furlongs out, which no other competitor on the Derby trail has come close to doing this season.

This gray son of Tapit ($1.3 million at KEESEP) has come around horses in all four of his victories. But his wide-and-driving tactics, combined with his propensity for dawdling at the break, could work against him in a 20-horse Derby.

Even though the two are built differently, consider a comparison to Essential Quality, another 'Rising Star' gray who was favored in the 2021 Derby and also ridden by Saez.

The juvenile champ went into the Derby undefeated after similarly making big, outside moves. Like Tapit Trice, Essential Quality's final prep was the Blue Grass, and it, too, featured a demanding stretch duel through the previously fastest Blue Grass final eighth in the new-dirt era (:12.53).

In the Derby, Essential Quality got off slowly, then Saez kept him four wide on both turns in an effort to avoid getting jammed inside. The colt rallied, but his fourth-place try lacked the spark of previous tries. The tough last prep didn't help him, and the lost ground definitely hurt him. Essential Quality skipped the GI Preakness. S., then won the GI Belmont S., GII Jim Dandy S. and GI Travers S. in succession.

Regardless of whether you think that sort history will repeat with Tapit Trice, you at least have to factor in those tactical similarities when assessing whether or not banking on a closer who gives himself so much extra work to do is a sound bet in a crowded, chaotic race like the Derby.

Tapit Trice | Coady

6) SKINNER (c, Curlin-Winding Way, by Malibu Moon) O-C R K Stable; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-John Shirreffs. Sales history: $40,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $510,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 6-1-0-3, $216,300. Last start: 3rd GI Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Skinner still needs two defections to make the qualifying cut. But I can see him emerging as a “wiseguy” horse at over 30-1 if he gets in.
To arrive at that conclusion, you have to buy into the benefits of the patient, confidence-building training methodology of John Shirreffs, and basically put a line through Skinner's uninspiring race results at age two.

Instead, focus on his progression at age three, which includes a mile maiden win followed by a pair of thirds over increasing distances behind No. 1-ranked Practical Move, the latter punctuated by a purposeful, three-furlong late kick.

All three efforts generated strong Beyers (95-94-99) that leave room for improvement. There's also the been-there-done that factor, based on John Shirreffs's 50-1 Derby upset with Giacomo in 2005, and jockey Victor Espinoza's three Derby wins with War Emblem (2002), California Chrome (2014) and American Pharoah (2015).

7) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

This 3-for-3 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) projected to control the tempo in the GII Louisiana Derby, and he did just that, leading at every call through very moderate fractions (:24.71, 49.50, 1:14.69, 1:39.13) and light pressure. The effort earned a 95 Beyer, a decent number despite the 1:57.33 clocking for 1 3/16 miles being the slowest in four years since that stakes got elongated from nine furlongs.

Still, the win represents capable advancement through only 10 weeks of racing experience, and the overall trend for the undefeated Kingsbarns shows no regression (74-85-95 Beyers). Beyond what he's shown on paper, this is a no-nonsense colt who goes about his business without drama, and he's already handled shipping to and racing over three very different dirt surfaces (Gulfstream, Tampa, Fair Grounds).

Only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby: Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924.

8) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Reincarnate is a glass half empty/half full proposition. Winless since his Jan. 8 GIII Sham S., his Beyers share a similar in-decline pattern over three races as Forte's (95-90-86), and his no-impact third in the Arkansas Derby doesn't supply much next-race momentum.
Yet this long-striding $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic has never been out of the money from seven starts, all at a mile or longer, and he gives the impression of a contender who should be finishing better than his running lines suggest.

Jockey John Velazquez said three months ago that Reincarnate was “still learning how to run” and tended to wait on other horses once he made the lead. His speed-centric style should give him the advantage of being forwardly placed and potentially ahead of trip trouble in the Derby, but you'd better hold out for a sizable mutuel before banking on that investment.

9) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 3rd in the GIII Lexington S. at Keeneland Apr. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 46.

All that 'TDN Rising Star' Disarm had to do in Saturday's GIII Lexington S. was run third to secure the six qualifying points that would put him into the Derby, and jockey Jose Ortiz made sure the colt did just that. Unless it was obvious this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred was going to blow by the field under his own power, everyone knew going into the race there would be no sense in asking Disarm for too strenuous an effort in the interest of keeping him fresh for May 6.

Disarm broke okay then was briefly squeezed back entering the first turn. The momentum loss wasn't serious, and he took up the chase seventh onto the backstretch, incrementally edging his way toward the top by the time the field hit the far turn.

Disarm responded when asked for a test-drive spurt of energy that propelled him to third at the top of the lane. But Ortiz realized he wasn't going to catch the dueling duo up front (especially with Keeneland's short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles ending at the sixteenth pole), so he wisely kept Disarm to task just enough win the “race within the race,” securing show by three-quarters of a length.

No wins at age three and having never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles aren't ideal. But those circumstances were dictated by Disarm having been out of action between August and February. A bet on him in the Derby is essentially a wager that his Gun Runner (out of a Tapit mare) bloodlines are going to put him over the top at 10 furlongs.

10) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Trainer Brad Cox has secured the services of jockey Flavien Prat to ride Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) in the Derby. Prat, currently tops in the nation with 15 graded stakes wins in 2023, had piloted both Angel of Empire and No. 7-ranked Kingsbarns in their respective final preps.

Prat has ridden in five Derbies and finished in the money four times. In 2019 he rode Country House, who was declared the 65-1 winner via disqualification of Maximum Security. Prat was also third at 40-1 with Battle of Midway in 2017, second with Hot Rod Charlie at 5-1 in 2021, and third with Zandon at 6-1 in 2022.

Angel of Empire is 4-for-6 lifetime and at his best when given front-end targets to track down. Although his GII Risen Star S. win (89 Beyer) could be attributed him benefitting from a pace meltdown, this colt's Oaklawn score (94 Beyer) was noticeably more assertive, with this Pennsylvania-bred decisively overpowering the pacemaker.

Angel of Empire | Coady

11) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

Two Phil's ($150,000 RNA KEESEP), the 101-Beyer winner of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, is 4-for-8 closer/stalker who rates highly in terms of versatility and adaptability.

Off as the 2.8-1 second choice in the Jeff Ruby, Two Phil's broke alertly, rated kindly, then was content to be parked outside while sixth down the backstretch. He gathered momentum four deep through the far turn, then shadowed the favorite as the two jointly accosted the pacemaker at the head of the stretch. Two Phil's deftly shrugged off the fave, then chugged for the wire under his own power, with no one seriously challenging.

But this son of Hard Spun does own a 5 1/4-length win at 7-1 odds over a sloppy, sealed Churchill dirt track in the Oct. 30 GIII Street Sense S., which could mean his connections will be doing a rain dance come Derby week.

Two Phil's | Coady

12) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

Mage, who celebrates a birthday Apr. 18, is still without a committed Derby rider as of this writing. This son of Good Magic popped with an encouraging second in the Florida Derby, launching a big, far-turn bid, repulsing a stern stretch drive from the eventual third-place horse, but still being no match for the vastly more experienced winner Forte.

The conundrum facing Derby bettors centers on whether that 94-Beyer improvement represents the ceiling for Mage or if it is just a sneak preview of a higher phase of his development.

Mage's company lines from his Jan. 28 MSW win at Gulfstream got a boost over the weekend. The runner- up in that race, Bourbon Resolve (Hard Spun) came back to win a MSW route at Keeneland as the favorite.

The fourth-place finisher, Perform (Good Magic), who had already won his subsequent start at 7-10 odds at Tampa back on Mar. 11, won again at Laurel, capturing the Federico Tesio S. by a head at 10-1 odds.

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate:

13) Lord Miles
Lord Miles (Curlin) broke his maiden by 5 ¾ lengths sprinting at Gulfstream. Then he ran third in the one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man S., beaten only three-quarters of a length. Stretched out to two turns to take advantage of his stout, female-family bloodlines (A.P. Indy, Seeking the Gold), Lord Miles then drew the rail in both the GIII Holy Bull S. and the Tampa Bay Derby, encountering trouble at the start on both occasions while sixth and fifth. He was bumped at the break in the Wood Memorial too, but overcame it to force the issue, drop back, then re-rally to charge home to a $120 victory in a roughly ridden, three-way stretch fight.

14) Derma Sotogake (Jpn)
When Derma Sotogake (Jpn) wired the G2 UAE Derby, it marked the first group winner for Mind Your Biscuits, the Grade I and Group 1-winning sprinter from five or six years back whose last stateside triumph was a successful stretch-out to nine furlongs in the 2018 GIII Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs. This ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL yearling orchestrated a comfortable, 5 1?2-length score in that 1 3/16-miles Meydan stakes, leading home a Japan-based 1-2-3-4 finish. Since 2000, 12 winners of the UAE Derby have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby, and the best finish among them was sixth (along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try). But times are changing, as Japanese horses are increasingly stamping themselves as worthy global competitors at racing's top levels. Getting too mired in past results might be a mistake in prognosticating how Derma Sotogake will fare in this year's edition.

15) Rocket Can
After Rocket Can (Into Mischief) ran a lackluster fourth as the beaten fave in the Arkansas Derby, trainer Bill Mott surmised that this $245,000 FTSAUG RNA gray has the ability to do better, but “he's just not quite giving it all” yet. A bullet half-mile over the Churchill strip in :46.60 (1/34) last Thursday might be a step toward bringing about an attitude adjustment, but Rocket Can is generally a sharp work horse anyway, having routinely posted bullets at Payson Park over the winter. He has five route races leading up to the Derby, and he earned style points in most of them as a punch-above-his-weight type of stalker. But the poorest try among them was over nine furlongs at Oaklawn, leading to realistic concerns about whether 10 furlongs will be within his scope. Churchill does seem to be Rocket Can's preferred surface. He broke his maiden there back on Oct. 30 and was second, beaten just a half-length, in a Nov. 26 allowance.

16) Sun Thunder
Trainer Kenny McPeek described Sun Thunder as a Derby “fringe horse” in a Daily Racing Form interview last week, and that label fits. This late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) was fourth, 6 ½ lengths off Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass S. He still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks, but he's run second, fourth (twice), and fifth in graded stakes against decent company through a winter/spring campaign. He is going to need help both pace-wise and trip-wise in the Derby while also having to find at least another 14 or 15 points on the Beyer scale to be in it to win it (he's twice maxxed out at 89).

17) Jace's Road
Prior to last Saturday, Jace's Road barely made the qualifying cutoff. But Disarm's six-points third in the Lexington S. knocked him back onto the also-eligible list. A $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, this colt ran a non-threatening third in the Louisiana Derby, and the best race on his résumé is still the 90-Beyer Dec. 26 wiring of the Gun Runner S. Jace's Road's status as an early 'TDN Rising Star' whose form has taken a hit reminds me a little bit of fellow Brad Cox trainee Mandaloun, who was also a 'Rising Star' and had a subpar final prep in the 2021 Louisiana Derby. Mandaloun reawakened with a 26-1 second in the Kentucky Derby, then subsequently was upgraded to the win because of the still-under-appeal drug DQ of Medina Spirit.

18) Confidence Game
Confidence Game, the 18-1 upsetter of the Rebel S., registered a 94-Beyer win by getting third run at wilting leaders. This $25,000 KEESEP Candy Ride (Arg) colt was initially slated for one more prep, but in March trainer Keith Desormeaux said it took Confidence Game “a little longer than usual to recover.” There was speculation he'd enter this past Saturday's Lexington S., but he instead breezed a mile from the gate on Friday in 1:38.20 (1/1). Now Confidence Game will head to the Derby off a 70-day layoff and never having run beyond 1 1/16 miles. Since 1929 (the advent of complete records), the longest winning layoff for a regularly scheduled Derby in May was 42 days, equaled by Needles (1956) and Animal Kingdom (2011).

19) Continuar (Jpn)
The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) was third and beaten 10 lengths by Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby. In their three common races, Derma Sotogake now has two wins over Continuar (the other was by a nose in a Nov. 6 handicap at Hanshin). Derma Sotogake was also third ahead of Continuar (fifth) in the G3 Saudi Derby. This ¥70,000,000 JRHJUL yearling's most recent victory was in the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26. Stateside fans will recall his sire, Drefong, as the Bob Baffert-trained champion sprinter in 2016.

20) Wild On Ice
Every Derby needs a massive, small-circuit-based longshot as a rooting interest, and Wild On Ice (Tapizar) fits the bill this year. The 35-1 winner of the GIII Sunland Derby in New Mexico has 60-year-old jockey Ken Tohill poised to become the oldest rider ever to compete in the Kentucky Derby. In the Sunland Derby, this Texas-bred homebred for Frank Sumpter stalked two front-running favorites who had shipped in from Santa Anita, and when the invaders dueled themselves into defeat, Wild On Ice opportunistically picked up the pieces for a 77-Beyer, 1 ¼-length score.

Note: Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) was ranked at No. 11 here last week but has now dropped to the 25th spot in qualifying points. Because of his diminished chances at making it into the main body of the race, he got relegated out of the TDN Top 20. Two horses who are currently inside the qualifying cut–Raise Cain (Violence) and Blazing Sevens (Good Magic)–are also not listed in this week's write-up.

The post TDN Derby Top 20: The Waiting is the Hardest Part appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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1) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising
Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte has made it through his two-race prep campaign still perched atop the Top 12. But it's now an open question as to how strong his grip is, considering the scare he gave backers at 3-10 odds when flying home with a belated rush to nail the GI Curlin Florida Derby by a length.

What we saw was an athlete so far ahead of his peers, that, even though he was tactically disavdantaged by leaving himself so much work to do, Forte was able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat without fully extending himself. A few desperate moments for sure, but no true panic.

Still, the not-fully-cranked Florida Derby win exposed vulnerabilities. Forte registered a 100 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but he regressed to a 98 when winning the GII Fountain of Youth S. That number dipped again, to 95, in the Florida Derby. If you're an improving divisional champion and formidbale Derby favorite, those Beyers should be going in the opposite direction.

Forte is a stalker at his best and a very capable closer from farther back when circumstances dictate. But the Derby has not recently been kind to horses who make sustained far-turn moves. In eight of the last nine Derbies, the first horse under the wire has raced either on the lead or just off it. Forte will be up against the grain of that winning profile in 4 1/2 weeks.

Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., said he had to resort to Plan B when Forte couldn't clear the field into the first turn in the Florida Derby like he thought he would. Ortiz had to urge the champ before settling into a more rhythmic beat down the backstretch.

Forte edged up incrementally, but still looked beaten at the five-sixteenths pole. He hesitated momentarily before responding nimbly to Ortiz's hand commands off the turn, and it took mild left-handed encouragement and the length of the stretch to reel in his target in measured fashion.

Yet Forte finished with his ears pricked after making the lead in the final few jumps to the wire, a subtle, positive sign that he can handle more.

2) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by AfleetAlex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $434,200. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Practical Move owns the two fastest final times among the 16 points-earning Derby qualifying stakes run at 1 1/16 miles in 2022-23. He ran 1:41.65 when winning the GII Los Alamitos Futurity and 1:42.01 when he tallied in the GII San Felipe S. For perspective, no other horses in that series of stakes have clocked below 1:43.06.

Based on how impressively this Tim Yakteen trainee orchestrated that San Felipe score, Practical Move seems well equipped to handle a stretch-out to nine furlongs and beyond.

Inside runs have evolved as the strong suit for this son of Practical Joke, who has enough tactical speed to stay in touch with brisk paces and enough late-race oomph to see his jobs through.

Should he win Saturday's GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby while putting up a second consecutive triple-digit Beyer, Practical Move would head to Louisville with a touch of swagger–and maybe enough gravitas to challenge Forte for favoritism.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising
Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs Mar. 11. KY Derby Points: 50.

Tapit Trice will headline the field when entries are drawn Wednesday for the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. This Todd Pletcher-trained gray is on a roll with three straight victories following a very useful third in his Nov. 6 debut.

This colt himself probably doesn't need much shoring up in terms of confidence. But bettors leaning toward backing this son of Tapit in the Kentucky Derby are going to want more assurance he can get out of the gate capably.

Tapit Trice has been lethargic off the mark in all four lifetime starts. Yet his raw talent, assertive nature, and ability to reliably fire down the lane have been enough to overcome any self-imposed disadvantages so far.

The Kentucky Derby is going to be different. The multiple waves of attackers will definitely not be of the lower-caliber variety like those Tapit Trice manhandled in the GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. The desperate image of jockey Luis Saez imploring Tapit Trice for run at multiple points in that race still resonates, even though the result was a win.

These lead-in stakes to the Derby are called “preps” for a reason. Tapit Trice is safely 11th with 50 points on the Derby leaderboard.

Still, a Blue Grass victory with a more adept start would go a long way toward solidifying his status as a major threat in Louisville.

4) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–BeyondGrace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $120,200. Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Geaux Rocket Ride, celebrating his third birthday Apr. 4, will enter Saturday's Santa Anita Derby stretching out from a 92-Beyer sprint debut win and a very encouraging 96-Beyer, pace-pressing second in the 1 1/16-miles San Felipe S.

Trainer Richard Mandella told Daily Racing From last week this son of Candy Ride must either win or “have a good reason for not winning” to merit an attempt in the Kentucky Derby.

That pragmatic approach underscores why the Hall of Fame conditioner rarely makes the trip to Louisville unless he's confident he has a colt with a realistic shot.

Should he win Saturday, Geaux Rocket Ride will head to Kentucky with a perfect 3-for-3 record. Comparisons to recent 3-for-3 Derby winners Justify (2018) and Big Brown (2008) would ensue. Who knows? Those lofty appraisals just might be warranted.

5) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN RisingStar'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

One metric certain to percolate over the next month is trainer Steve Asmussen's 0-for-24 record in the Derby, a vexing statistical shadow that the Hall-of-Fame conditioner has publicly dealt with in good humor as that number has edged upward over the past several seasons.

Objectively though, his record has to be considered skewed by the large number of “just take a shot” Derby starters Asmussen has saddled over the decades.

When you drill down the list to Asmussen's best-intended Derby entrants, none of them have ever been off the board. Curlin (third in 2007) and Gun Runner (third in 2016) later blossomed spectacularly despite not peaking on the first Saturday in May. And last year's Derby fave, Epicenter, looked home free before an 80-1 shot relegated him to second in the final jumps.

This handsome, sturdy son of Gun Runner (out of a Tapit mare) won't be a top-tier betting choice. He closed at 33-1 in Pool 6 of the Derby future wager last Saturday.

But look out for this 'TDN Rising Star' and Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred, who has put together two better-than-they-look routes since stretching out off an August  layoff. Both off-the-pace efforts were against the biases of speed-favoring tracks.

Disarm closed for second in a Feb. 19 Oaklawn allowance behind a wire-to-wire winner on an afternoon when horses racing on the lead or just off it won seven of nine races. And he was second (with minor trip trouble) in the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby when trying to pull back another frontrunner who set a slow tempo on a day when 10 forwardly placed horses scored in 11 dirt races at Fair Grounds.

6) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

After a 94-Beyer win in the GI Arkansas Derby, Angel of Empire rates as the only Top 12 contender with two wins at nine furlongs.

Since starting this Pennsylvania-bred's career at Horseshoe Indianapolis last summer, trainer Brad Cox has brought along this son of 2017 Arkansas Derby winner Classic Empire in patient fashion, all the way praising Angel of Empire's unruffled demeanor and keen mind.

“He's not blessed with a tremendous amount of speed,” Cox said Sunday at Oaklawn. “He just kind of breaks. And he's not void of speed, but he kind of finds his way and they get away from him a little bit. But he settles. He's a very smart horse.”

While Angel of Empire's late-run win in the GII Risen Star S. on Feb. 18 was aided by a pace meltdown, his no-nonsense score in the Arkansas Derby resonated more along the lines of him purposefully cracking the leader while blowing by the two favorites. A nicely torqued far-turn bid put him over the top at the quarter pole, then he freewheeled into another gear that didn't suggest this colt was scraping bottom, stamina-wise.

It's only a small sample of six races, but Angel of Empire's final furlong at Oaklawn (:12.12) is the fastest so far among the 1 1/8-miles preps in 2022-23. He also closed into the second-fastest final furlong (:12.95) in the Risen Star.

7) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters)O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

The company lines for Two Phil's, the 101-Beyer winner of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, upticked over the weekend when two horses who beat him in recent months–Angel of Empire and Forte–both won Grade I stakes.

If this Larry Rivelli trainee is being molded to follow the career path of his sire, Hard Spun, that would be a worthy aspiration. Hard Spun also won the version of Turfway's premier stakes in 2007 (when the Jeff Ruby was known as the GII Lane's End S. and run over Polytrack). That win vaulted Hard Spun to 2-3-4 finishes in the three Triple Crown races and a second-place try later that season in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

Hard Spun carved out a reputation as a reliable, determined runner who could handle any type of distance or surface. Two Phil's, with wins both sprinting and routing over fast dirt, slop, and now Tapeta, is similarly evolving as a colt who goes out and executes, no matter what assignment he is tasked with. He's an overachiever who could make an outsized impact in the Derby.

8) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

Mage is an eye-catching chestnut, but he sparks interest as a Kentucky Derby “dark horse” after his last-to-first slingshot move on the far turn of the Florida Derby. The only foe capable of running him down was the vastly more experienced divisional kingpin, Forte.

Mage broke toward the back and was slow to settle on the first turn, eventually dropping out last. Jockey Luis Saez didn't rush him, and instead let Mage find his stride, coaxing the colt to uncoil 4 1/2 furlongs out.

A commanding burst of acceleration in the five path gave Mage an unexpected far-turn jump on Forte, who had yet to ramp up into a higher gear. That big move might have been a tad premature, but it propelled Mage to the lead at the head of the homestretch. And once he hit the front he confidently repulsed a long drive from another better-seasoned colt, the third-place finisher Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief). Mage yielded to the more powerful Forte in the final strides, but held second without quitting.

“He might have gotten tired but, remember, it's still his third race,” said assistant trainer Gustavo Delgado, Jr. “How many races did it take for Forte to get to the level he is?”

9) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

The 3-for-3 Kingsbarns, who wired the GII Louisiana Derby in his most recent start, got pounded to 11-1 second favoritism in Pool 6 of the Derby future wager that closed last Saturday.

Although the prospect of an undefeated colt is always tantalizing, that mutuel seems underlaid with respect to what price Kingsbarns will actually be on Derby day.

The plot for this Uncle Mo colt also thickened over the weekend in terms of who will ride him in the Derby. With the win by Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby, jockey Flavien Prat now has potentially competing calls aboard last-race winners Kingsbarns, Angel of Empire and Geaux Rocket Ride.

10) SLIP MAHONEY (c, Arrogate–Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings & Philip Steinberg (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $150,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-0, $126,100. Last Start: 2nd in GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

It was a nice bit of value handicapping if you locked in 130-1 odds on the vastly overlooked Slip Mahoney in Pool 6 of the Derby future wager that closed Apr. 1.

This Arrogate colt out of an A.P. Indy mare is bred to run all day. He exits a dismal trip when second and closing with a big rush over a muddy track in the GIII Gotham S., and is likely going to be the favorite or second choice in the GII Wood Memorial S. this Saturday (entries Wednesday). Should he run big at Aqueduct, that juicy futures ticket could represent roughly five to seven times his starting price come Derby day.

This $150,000 KEESEP colt has only won once, but Slip Mahoney's first two losses at the MSW level came at the expense of No. 3-ranked Tapit Trice and the formerly Top 12-ranked Litigate (Blame), who subsequently won the GIII Davis S. at Tampa, but is now off the Derby trail.

Note that the Gotham (and Slip Mahoney) got a boost this past Saturday when the fourth-place finisher out of that one-turn mile, Eyeing Clover (Lookin At Lucky), came back to win Oaklawn's $200,000 Hot Springs S.

11) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-0, $126,100. Last Start: 1st in GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct Feb. 11. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Hit Show, a Candy Ride (Arg) colt who won't technically turn three until three days after the Derby, has Saturday's Wood Memorial circled as his chance to leapfrog into Derby relevancy from his current 27th spot on the qualifying list.

A homebred for Gary and Mary West, Hit Show has already won over nine furlongs, having scored in the GII Withers. S. at Aqueduct back on Feb. 11. He made a rail run to gradually grind down the leader with incremental, focused gain. No one was firing at him in the stretch, so he was able to pad his lead inside the final furlong to open up by 5 1/2 lengths at the wire.

Coming off an eight-week layoff, he'll spar for favoritism in the Wood with fellow Brad Cox stablemate Slip Mahoney while trying to add to an ascending Beyer pattern of 60-71-82-91 from four lifetime starts.

12) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy)O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the
GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn Feb. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 15.

Reincarnate had a no-excuse stalking trip in the Arkansas Derby, forcing the issue on the front end. He was second and bearing down on a sacrificial speedster, but Angel of Empire blasted off to his outside turning for home and this colt never mustered any true response to match that winning move. Reincarnate held on for third.

Right now he's ranked 13th for eligibility with 45 qualifying points. Expectations were high going into the Arkansas Derby because Reincarnate had persevered through a difficult trip when third in the GII Rebel S., and he figured to be rounding into the type of Derby contender who might be dangerous because of his lead-seeking tendencies and long, strong stride.

This $775,000 KEESEP grad has never been off the board from seven starts, all at a mile or longer. But his most promising effort (a 95-Beyer GIII Sham S. win back on Jan. 8) is now three months in the rearview mirror. A turnaround is not out of the question, but Reincarnate must aim for several notches of improvement without the benefit of positive last-race momentum.

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