Well, for true disciples of Tolkein, you understand the 'Two Towers' reference is a major theme in the trilogy, but for our purposes it simply denotes coverage.

This Saturday, both Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream Park are those poles of power when it comes to authoring graded stakes. Their cards feature Kentucky Derby and Oaks points races.

So, get your palantir ready–alright, alright–here is the slate for Saturday.

The Eye of Timberlake

The GI Arkansas Derby offers 100 Derby points to the winner at Oaklawn as the town of Hot Springs will be invaded by horse enthusiasts who are keen to watch a pair of 'TDN Rising Stars' do battle.

Timberlake (Into Mischief) earned that merit badge at second asking as a 2-year-old. Though he was fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the Brad Cox trainee certainly came out of the break to put on a show in last month's GII Rebel S. The WinStar and Siena-owned colt has the Beyer figures to prove he belongs among the top contenders for the first Saturday in May.

“I really like the timing of the Arkansas Derby to the Kentucky Derby,” said Cox. “Obviously, he has the experience there now after winning the Rebel. I kind of thought the Rebel was the spot when we were getting started this winter. That worked out well and it leads nicely to the Arkansas Derby.”

Muth | Benoit

Opposing him are some other strong candidates like the winner of the GIII Southwest S. Mystik Dan (Goldencents), as well as Liberal Arts (Arrogate) and Time for Truth (Omaha Beach), but Timberlake's main rival is Zedan Racing's Muth (Good Magic). The $2-million 2023 OBS March topper is the latest shipper to Oaklawn for trainer Bob Baffert. Though his connections cannot collect Derby points, his front-running speed makes him a threat. The 3-year-old began his career with a 'Rising Star'-effort at Santa Anita back in June. After running second to Fierceness (City of Light) in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he cut back to take the GII San Vincente S. in early January.

The road to the GI Kentucky Oaks travels down Central Avenue and through the GII Fantasy S. The top three finishers from the GIII Honeybee S. return in Lemon Muffin (Collected), Tapit Jenallie (Tapit) and West Omaha (West Coast), but there are some true 'x-factors' drawn. One of them is Thorpedo Anna (Fast Anna), who was last seen as the runner-up in the GII Golden Rod S. at Churchill Downs in November. Also making the Fantasy gate are the top two runners from the Sunland Park Oaks–undefeated Recharge (Gun Runner) and Candy Aisle (Gun Runner).

One other graded race on Saturday in Hot Springs is the GIII Oaklawn Mile.

Fierceness In His Voice

Coming into the GI Curlin Florida Derby, champion 2-year-old colt and 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness is looking to get back to the winner's circle after running third in his only start this year. Owned by Repole Stable, the Todd Pletcher trainee is going to get another crack at the horse that won the GIII Holy Bull S. Feb. 3, Hades (Awesome Slew).

Fierceness | Ryan Thompson

“Normally I'd be afraid of the outside post but Forte won from the 11 last year so you can overcome that,” said Pletcher. “Everybody knows Gulfstream two-turn races are tricky and I think that's why the start is so important, getting away cleanly. I think what happens in a lot of these two-turn races is the jockeys are so conscious of having to get to the first turn in good position that it can get a little rough leaving the gate sometimes. … The horse gives you a lot of confidence watching him breeze. It seems like he's in really good form, so we're expecting a good performance from him.”

Among the other challengers who are chasing the 100-point Churchill Downs offering is another 'Rising Star'. Conquest Warrior (City of Light) garnered honors from the paper when he won by five lengths going nine furlongs against optional claimers in Hallandale Mar. 1.

“I feel good,” said Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey about Conquest Warrior. “We've had two good races here and I still have a pretty fresh horse. He's trained good over it. He's had a race going a mile and an eighth here, which he handled, obviously, very easily. He came out of it good. I don't think we took anything out of him.”

In the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks–the local 100-point Kentucky Oaks feeder–'TDN Rising Star' Ways and Means (Practical Joke) gets back on track for trainer Chad Brown. The Klaravich homebred debuted a winner by 12 3/4 lengths at Saratoga last summer and was last seen running second in the GI Spinaway S. upstate.

Standing in her way is the heroine of the GII Davona Dale S., Fiona's Magic (St Patrick's Day), and Power Squeeze (Union Rags), who returns to South Florida after raiding the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs.

The Gulfstream Park undercard has three other graded races as part of the program, including the GII Pan American S., the GIII Ghostzapper S. and the GIII Orchid S.

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Out from the 10 post in the mud, Mystik Dan broke sharply only to angle over to the rail and settle midpack under Brian Hernandez, Jr. Otto the Conqueror (Street Sense), winner of the Springboard Mile S. in December, set a :23.56 and :47.95 pace up front with his ears pricked while previously undefeated race favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Carbone (Mitole) pressured him from the outside. Meanwhile, Mystik Dan bided his time on the rail, with Hernandez carefully concealing the power about to be unleashed. Just Steel, keen early in fourth, collared Otto the Conqueror from the outside off the turn and looked to be running easily while Mystik Dan, so close to the rail he could have scraped paint, found a seam and burst through. The two spent the briefest of moments on even terms before Mystik Dan thumbed his nose at the competition, simply forgetting to stop as he looked stronger with every stride and sailed home eight lengths to the good after being geared down late. It was a visually impressive performance as Just Steel held for second, a neck over a closing Liberal Arts, who was nine lengths clear of the rest.

An open-daylight maiden sprint winner at Churchill in November, Mystik Dan brought a field-best 96 Beyer Speed Figure into the Southwest. Last seen finishing fifth behind Catching Freedom (Constitution) in Oaklawn's Smarty Jones S. on New Year's Day at his first try at the Southwest distance, he had faded in the stretch that day after pressing the pace.

McPeek and Hernandez also teamed up to win Oaklawn's Kentucky Oaks points race on Saturday–the $250,000 Martha Washington S.–with longshot Band of Gold (Preservationist). The pair of victories marked the first wins by each of the veterans in both of the races.

Well clear in the stretch | Coady/Robi Heffington

Pedigree Notes:

A homebred for the team of Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby, and 4G Racing LLC, Mystik Dan is out of a Colonel John mare bred by the late Lucy Bassett and originally trained by McPeek. Ma'am, out of a full-sister to GI Hollywood Futurity and GII Lane's End Breeders' Futurity winner Siphonic (Siphon {Brz}), also hails from the same family as GISW Laragh (Tapit), MGSW and sire Summer Front (War Front), and MGSW & GISP Dixie Dot Com (Dixie Brass). Ma'am has a 2-year-old Unified filly named Yes Ma'am and a yearling Knicks Go filly named Ford's Ma'am for the same team. She was bred to Wells Bayou for 2024.

Two-time GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner and Spendthrift sire Goldencents has 27 black-type winners worldwide. Mystik Dan is his seventh graded winner while also being the 10th black-type winner out of a daughter of Colonel John. The latter was last reported to be standing in Korea.

#10 MYSTIK DAN ($24.80) sat a perfect rail trip before taking the lead in the stretch and splashing home to an impressive upset in Oaklawn's $800,000 GIII Southwest Stakes!

Mystik Dan was the second big-priced stakes winner on the card for @b_hernandezjr and @KennyMcPeek. pic.twitter.com/Ons0VG8g9V

— TVG (@TVG) February 3, 2024

Saturday, Oaklawn
SOUTHWEST S.-GIII, $800,000, Oaklawn, 2-3, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:43.67, my.
1–MYSTIK DAN, 118, c, 3, by Goldencents
                1st Dam: Ma'am, by Colonel John
                2nd Dam: Lady Siphonica, by Siphon (Brz)
                3rd Dam: Cherokee Crossing, by Cherokee Colony
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. O/B-Lance
Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G.
McPeek; J-Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. $408,000. Lifetime
Record: 5-2-1-0, $510,110. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple
Plus* Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for
the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Just Steel, 117, c, 3, Justify–Irish Lights (Aus), by Fastnet Rock
(Aus). 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP).
O-BC Stables, LLC; B-Summerhill Farm (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas.
$136,000.
3–Liberal Arts, 119, c, 3, Arrogate–Ismene, by Tribal Rule.
O/B-Stephen Ferraro & Evan Ferraro (KY); T-Robert Medina.
$68,000.
Margins: 8, NK, 9. Odds: 11.40, 10.30, 4.90.
Also Ran: Awesome Road, Common Defense, Otto the Conqueror, Carbone, Linebacker, Charleston, Magic Grant, Wynstock. Scratched: Maycocks Bay.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

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The trail to Derby 150 begins a much steeper ascent on Saturday at Fair Grounds in New Orleans as the GIII Lecomte S. offers 3-year-old colts 20-10-6-4-2 that can be applied to Bank of Churchill.

This year's edition pits a field of eight against one another with the central question being: what happened to Nash (Medaglia d'Oro) in the December running of the Gun Runner S.?

The heavy favorite was unable to build on his Nov. 12 'TDN Rising Star' performance under the Twin Spires at second asking when he powered to the lead, torched a field of maidens by 10 1/4 lengths and posted a 97 Beyer for trainer Brad Cox.

The race shape in the Gun Runner was nothing of the sort for the Godolphin homebred, as he was forced to watch Track Phantom (Quality Road) take control towards the end of the backstretch and never relinquish the lead.

Track Phantom (center) with Nash (along the rail) | Hodges Photography/Amanda Hodges Weir

“It was great to see him [Track Phantom] win the race against a talented field, but especially with going as fast as they did early and showing enough quality to still respond,” said the winner's trainer Steve Asmussen. “I love how he's doing, very happy with him and how he's trained since the Gun Runner. I feel good about the draw and excited to run him again. Past success from there so we'll see what we can do.”

Of course, the pair will have others to contend with in this spot and chief among them is Lat Long (Liam's Map). The dark bay trained by Ken McPeek was never out of the money in all five of his juvenile starts against maiden special weight company starting at Churchill back in September. Facing the likes of GSW Dornoch (Good Magic) and Track Phantom himself, Lat Long broke through at Oaklawn Dec. 17 against his stablemate and next-out winner Common Defense (Karakontie {Jpn}).

“[Lat Long] has been a horse who is still trying to figure it out a bit,” McPeek said. “He's not all there yet. But we're going to try him at a higher level and see how he handles tougher company.”

Also after points is Can Group (Good Samaritan), who was last seen running fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita for trainer Mark Casse. Joining him will be two more Cox runners in Ethan Energy (Uncle Mo), who broke his maiden by 5 1/4 lengths at second asking over this surface Dec. 23, and Awesome Road (Quality Road). Bred by Claiborne Farm, the latter was a $600,000 Keeneland September purchase by Albaugh Family Stables and Donegal Racing.

Saudi Crown Kick Starts His 4-Year-Old Campaign

Preceding the Lecomte is the GIII Louisiana S. for 4-year-olds and up going 1 1/16th on the main track. This race marks the return of Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming). Now a 4-year-old, the gray debuted a winner by 4 3/4 lengths at Keeneland last April, then won against allowance company at Churchill Downs a month later.

Saudi Crown | Sarah Andrew

Finishing over the summer as the runner-up by a nose in the GIII Dwyer S. at Belmont Park and in the GII Jim Dandy S. at Saratoga, the Brad Cox trainee set the pace en route to the winner's circle in the GI Pennsylvania Derby at Parx in September. A popular pick in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, the colt finished a well-beaten 10th to close out his year.

“I'm not treating it like he has to be on the lead,” Cox said. “He's a smart horse. He's capable of sitting off. When he broke his maiden, he sat off horses. I really don't think he has to be on the lead. It probably will be a situation where he will have to take a breath at some point, you can't just run all-out throughout.”

After Cox watched Saudi Crown drill five furlongs behind Nash Jan. 13 (1:00.20, 3/51), the trainer said, “It didn't quite set up as well as we expected. There were other horses out there and we got caught up with a little more company than we wanted. I was very, very happy with the breeze. He was a little wide through the lane and around the turn. Plenty fit. He had a good work the week before last. We just wanted him to cruise along the other day and he did. I think he's set up for a big spot.”

Opposing him in New Orleans are a number of seasoned challengers looking to set the tone for their own campaigns. Smile Happy (Runhappy) has not been seen since he ran fifth in the GI Stephen Foster S. at Ellis Park in July. The 'TDN Rising Star' has a resume which includes a pair of Grade II wins in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. as a juvenile and in last year's Alysheba S.–both at Churchill Downs.

Making the gate is deep closer GSW Red Route One (Gun Runner), defending winner and GISP Happy American (Runhappy) and GII Rebel S. hero Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}).

Midnight Memories Faces Desert Dawn Once Again

Swinging out to Santa Anita Park on Saturday afternoon, the GIII La Canada S. has MGSW Midnight Memories (Mastery) taking on MGISP Desert Dawn (Cupid). The last time these two met as 4-year-old fillies in the GIII Bayakoa S. at Los Alamitos Dec. 15, it was Midnight Memories who got the best of her rival by a length. Favored at 6-5 on the morning line, the Bob Baffert trainee will also have to contend with, among others, GISP Musical Mischief (Into Mischief) and Coffee in Bed (Curlin).

The post ‘Rising Star’ Nash Faces Track Phantom In Lecomte Rematch Headlining Saturday Graded Races appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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All three Southwest undercard black-type events have also been moved to Feb. 3. They include the Martha Washington S. for 3-year-old fillies offering points on a 20-10-6-4-2 basis toward the GI Kentucky Oaks, as well as the American Beauty S. for filles and mares three and up and the King Cotton S. for horses three and up.

“The Southwest and Martha Washington are important preps for our 3-year-old stakes program,” said Oaklawn President Louis Cella. “They are also important points races for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks. It is important for our horsemen to have ample opportunities to train their horses properly for the races. Not only has this winter weather forced us to cancel racing, but our horsemen have also missed some training days.”

The Southwest will join three other 20-point Derby preps also scheduled for Feb. 3: the GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct, the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. at Santa Anita, and the GIII Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream. The entire Southwest card will be drawn Sunday, Jan. 28 with the same races originally listed in the condition book for Jan. 27.

The GIII Bayakoa S., originally scheduled for Feb. 3, has been bumped back to Feb. 2 to accommodate the new schedule. In addition, the listed Fifth Season S., originally set for this Saturday, Jan. 20, will now be run Jan. 27. It will be redrawn.

Live racing at Oaklawn is scheduled to resume next Friday, Jan. 26 with a first post at 12:30 p.m. CST.

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Baffert himself brings in the non-Derby eligible Hard to Figure (Hard Spun), second to Newgate (Into Mischief) in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. at Santa Anita Feb. 4.

The local contingent is led by Henry Q (Blame)–winner of the sole local prep in the Mine That Bird Derby Feb. 28–and the top three finishers of Sunland's Riley Allison Derby in One In Vermillion (Army Mule), Steve Asmussen's How Did He Do That (Good Magic), and Wild On Ice (Tapizar). Neither Henry Q, How Did He Do That, or Wild On Ice are Triple-Crown nominated.

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TVG's Joaquin Jaime and Scott Hazelton will be reporting live from Fair Grounds with exclusive interviews and expert analysis throughout the fourteen-race card. Mandaloun, trained by Brad Cox, will face six rivals in the $150,000 Louisiana Stakes (G3) including the 2021 Lecomte winner, Midnight Bourbon for trainer Steve Asmussen. Mandaloun, the runner-up finisher in the 2021 Kentucky Derby (G1) also won the Haskell Invitational (G1) during his 3-year-old campaign and will have Florent Geroux aboard.

The $200,000 Lecomte Stakes (G3) offers 10-4-2-1 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top four finishers and has drawn a field of nine Triple Crown hopefuls. Pappacap, a homebred son of Gun Runner for Rustlewood Farm, will be making his 3-year-old debut for Mark Casse and was last seen finishing second in the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). Joe Bravo will be in the irons. His rivals include Epicenter, one of two contenders for trainer Steve Asmussen. The son of Not This Time earned his first black type victory last time out in the Gun Runner Stakes in December and will have Joel Rosario aboard.

TVG's Todd Schrupp, Simon Bray, Christina Blacker, Mike Joyce and Kurt Hoover will be reporting live from Santa Anita throughout the day on Saturday. The featured race is the $70,000 Clocker's Corner Stakes, a six-furlong turf sprint featuring a field of eight.

Points for the Kentucky Oaks (G1) will be up for grabs at Aqueduct on Sunday in the $100,000 Busanda Stakes for 3-year-old fillies. The mile and a sixteenth contest has drawn a field of six including Gamestonks who will be making her stakes debut for Brittany Russell after winning her last two races.

In addition to racing from Fair Grounds and Santa Anita, TVG will be featuring racing from Oaklawn, Tampa Bay Downs, Gulfstream Park, Aqueduct and more. Fans can tune in on TVG, TVG2 and the Watch TVG app which is available on Amazon Fire, Roku and connected Apple TV devices.

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Weird, right?

“Nothing feels weird this year, weird is the norm,” said John Shirreffs, trainer of 8-5 morning line favorite Honor A. P.

Amen to that.

Back on March 30, Churchill Downs announced that, in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Run for the Roses – a worldwide sports calendar fixture on the first Saturday in May – would be moved to the first Saturday in September for its 146th running. Likely a somewhat unsettling announcement to many trainers with Derby candidates in their stables. But, of course, not to Shirreffs.

“It didn't require any big adjustment,” Shirreffs said matter of factly – his default attitude on most matters. “We waited for the San Felipe and then the Santa Anita Derby, which was the regular plan.”

Honor A. P., a son of Honor Code and grandson of champion A.P. Indy, made his racing debut at 6 furlongs with a fast-closing runner-up finish at Del Mar on August 17 of last year. Stretched to a mile two months later, he was a 5 1/4 –length winner at Santa Anita to end a 2-year-old campaign that, while brief, caught the eye of Derby watchers.

He was second to Authentic in the Grade II, 1 1/16-mile San Felipe on March 20, beaten 2 ¼ lengths, but turned the tables in the COVID-delayed, 1 1/18-mile Santa Anita Derby on June 6, winning by 2 ¾-lengths.

The win elevated Honor A. P. to the top, or near it, on Derby Watch lists. But it necessitated a decision for Shirreffs and owners C R K Stable of Lee and Susan Searing of Arcadia, CA, regarding the next stop on the Derby trail. Go east for one of several large-purse races or stay in Southern California for the Shared Belief?

In anticipation of being a Derby prep — one that would offer Derby “points” (50-20-10-5 to the first four finishers) — the Shared Belief had been moved back a few weeks on the Del Mar scheduled and advanced from a mile to 1 1/16 miles in distance. The next race call went to the Shared Belief.

Honor A. P. has worked four times over the Del Mar surface and Shirreffs said: “I think he's coming into this race as well as he was for the Santa Anita Derby.”

Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, aboard for all four of Honor A. P.'s starts, describes him as a “big, strong, developing colt,” who could wind up benefitting from the delay of the Derby with the extra time for maturity and experience.

Shirreffs says: “He's got a great stride on him and he's light on his feet. My job is finding ways to get him to relax; to learn a little more race by race.”

Shirreffs trained the colt's dam, Hollywood Story. “That gives me an emotional connection,” he said. “But I really benefit from training his sister Hollywood Girl. That helps a lot because they're alike in that they're really competitive and have similar dispositions.”

Honor A. P. has reunited Shirreffs and Smith for a third Derby run in the past 15 years. In 2005, they combined for a victory in Louisville on 50-1 Giacomo, to that point the second-biggest longshot winner in Derby history. Giacomo paid $102.60 to win and was the front of a superfecta that returned more than $1.7 million.

Giacomo had finished fourth in the Santa Anita Derby a month earlier and was part of a crop of California 3-year-olds that was largely dismissed as contenders.

“(Giacomo) had run a creditable Santa Anita Derby but he hadn't won any of the preps,” Shirreffs recalled. “Mike was the one who encouraged us to go on; he thought he'd do better at the mile and a quarter.”

Unlike the betting public, Smith was sold on Giacomo – owned by recording executive Jerry Moss and his wife Anne and named for the son of the musician Sting.

“I really believed going in that he had a good shot,” Smith remembered. “I told everyone I knew 'Don't leave him out.' I knew the mile and a quarter would be right up his alley.”

A stone closer, Giacomo was 17th of 20 in the early going, well off a blistering pace, but stormed down the stretch to win by a half length and provide Smith with his first Derby victory in his 12th start.

“None of the Southern California races set up for him,” Smith said. “He ran in a tough year and didn't get credit for being as good as he was. But he was a really good horse. For him to come back (to Del Mar) the next year and win the San Diego Handicap was really something.”

Giacomo went into the 2006 San Diego Handicap winless in four starts following the Kentucky Derby. He was the sixth Derby winner to race at Del Mar, but only fourth choice in a field of eight at 5-1 on the morning line. Reminiscent of the Derby, he made a gritty stretch run and prevailed over Bob Baffert trainee Preachinathebar by a head in the final jump.

“He might have redeemed himself today. And he might have redeemed me too,” Smith said after the race.

“It was like the Derby again wasn't it,” Shirreffs said. “He won the Derby, so anything (negative) anybody said about him has gone in one ear and out the other.”

The win by Giacomo was the 15th of a now 70 total stakes victories in 19 seasons at Del Mar, 10th all time, for Smith. It was the fifth stakes win for Shirreffs, who has added 11 more in subsequent years, three of them coming in consecutive runnings of the Clement L. Hirsch (2008, '09, '10) by his marvelous mare Zenyatta.

What does Smith think of riding in a Kentucky Derby prep at Del Mar?

“It's very different, but this has been a very different kind of year,” the rider said.

That makes it unanimous.

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