It's time for the final edition of The Derby Bubble. The field for the Run for the Roses is set, and with it comes plenty of speculation from fans and handicappers.

With that in mind, the season finale of this column will include a game called “Good Trip, Bad Trip.”

I'll examine all 20 runners, plus the three also-eligibles. Last year's column in this vein went over really well…right up until a horse I didn't write about drew in off the Also Eligible list and won the darn thing. Never let it be said I make the same mistake twice!

Enough talk; let's dive into the field.

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owners: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Manny Franco

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: Hit Show has enough tactical speed to save a ground-saving spot going into the first turn. Not intimidated by the Derby distance, he's among the first set of horses to make their moves when the real running starts. He's not quite talented enough to win, but he avenges his tough beat in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial by earning a big check.

Bad Trip: The rail compromises Hit Show and he's shuffled back in the early going. This puts the stalking-type up against it, and he struggles to gain forward momentum.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#2: Verifying

Pedigree: Justify – Diva Delite (by Repent)

Owners: Westerberg Limited, Magnier, Poulin, Smith, and Tabor

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Breeder: Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

Good Trip: Long considered one of the brightest prospects in a loaded Brad Cox barn, Verifying puts it all together. His speed is used as an asset by a rider who knows Churchill Downs as well as anyone, he hits the front turning for home, and unlike in the G1 Blue Grass, he doesn't get caught.

Bad Trip: Like one of his stablemates, the inside draw has the potential to work against him. Verifying doesn't break smoothly, and he's knocked out of his element from the jump (literally). This effort is less his sharp effort in the Blue Grass and more his clunker in the G2 Rebel.

Verifying was bred in Kentucky by Hunter Valley and Mountmellick Farm, out of the Grade 3-winning Repent mare Diva Delite, making him a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou. He sold to M.V. Magnier of the Coolmore partnership for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. The breeders purchased Diva Delite for $1.2 million, with Verifying in-utero, at the 2019 Keeneland November sale.

#3: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owners: Patricia's Hope, Sagan, and Madaket Stables

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Jockey: Jareth Loveberry

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 12-1

Good Trip: The Two Phil's we saw in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks is the real deal. The synthetic track form comes with him to Churchill Downs, and he storms past the field turning for home to record a popular win for a group of Kentucky Derby first-timers. Furthermore, in keeping with widespread interest in Rivelli's barn, the classic commercial gets remade in HD and runs on all major television networks through the Preakness.

Bad Trip: Two Phil's bounces off of what was easily a lifetime-best effort. What we see Saturday is the horse that collected minor awards in Louisiana, and that type of effort doesn't get it done against the best of his crop.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#4: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owners: Don't Tell My Wife Stables and Ocean Reef Racing

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Jockey: James Graham

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: Keith Desormeaux looks like a genius. Confidence Game shows no signs of rust coming off the bench, and the rest allows him the necessary time to develop as a racehorse. He's not good enough to win, but he adds another significant check to Desormeaux's Derby resume.

Bad Trip: The Confidence Game we saw win the G2 Rebel turns out to need a muddy track, which doesn't seem likely this weekend. A horse bred to love a wet track instead gets a fast one, which doesn't play to his strengths and leads to him being a non-factor.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#5: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owners: Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Luis Saez

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 5-1

Good Trip: Tapit Trice gets off to a smooth start, unlike his last several outings. As a result, Luis Saez doesn't have to work so hard to ensure a smooth journey, and his mount's sheer talent can be put on full display. He runs to his pedigree, wins the Kentucky Derby, and provides a feel-good moment for co-owner Whisper Hill Farm, which lost champion Havre de Grace last week.

Bad Trip: Those gate issues flare up again at an inopportune time. Tapit Trice gets shuffled back in front of 150,000 screaming fans, and not even world-class reinsman Saez can navigate a winning trip in that scenario.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#6: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 12-1

Good Trip: Kingsbarns finds himself up front with a slow early pace, in a carbon copy of his winning trip from the G2 Louisiana Derby. A near-certainty to be the biggest price of the three Todd Pletcher trainees despite his undefeated record, Kingsbarns hits the top of the stretch with plenty in reserve. He springs an upset that leaves many handicappers wondering how they didn't have an undefeated Pletcher on their tickets.

Bad Trip: Unlike in Louisiana, Kingsbarns has to face legitimate opposition up front early on. With Verifying to his inside and Derma Sotogake to his outside, Kingsbarns is hounded from the opening strides, never gets comfortable, and retreats going around the far turn.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#7: Reincarnate

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)

Owners: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Masterson, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Jockey: John Velazquez

Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: Reincarnate runs to his most recent work, a four-furlong bullet drill at Santa Anita. John Velazquez, who's rarely in the wrong place at the wrong time, gives his mount every chance. He's not good enough to win, but he finishes third or fourth at a big number.

Bad Trip: Reincarnate runs to his last start, where he needed to win a photo for third in the G1 Arkansas Derby to ensure his spot in the Kentucky Derby field. He's up close early but fades when the real running starts.

Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#8: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owners: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

Good Trip: The phenomenon once known as the Apollo Curse is defied for the second time in less than a decade. Mage, who did not run as a 2-year-old, overcomes the gate issues that have plagued him in his two two-turn outings. In doing so, he gets the clean trip he didn't have in the G1 Florida Derby. That allows him to turn the tables on Forte and give his Hall of Fame rider his first-ever Kentucky Derby win.

Bad Trip: They're off, and Mage loses. Those gate issues prove tough to shake, and he once again spots his rivals several lengths right away. That, his inexperience, and the Kentucky Derby setting combine to form an insurmountable barrier.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#9: Skinner

Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)

Owner: C R K Stable

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Jockey: Juan Hernandez

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: A horse on the improve getting one of the hottest jockeys in the country puts it all together thanks to a closer-friendly race shape. Skinner sits back beneath Juan Hernandez, makes one big run, and lights up the tote board to give his conditioner a second Kentucky Derby victory (18 years after his first with another longshot, Giacomo).

Bad Trip: Skinner turns out to have some hang in him. He's called upon to make his move and passes several tired rivals, but starts spinning his wheels in midstretch and can't stay with the more well-bet horses in this particular race.

Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.

#10: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Jockey: Ramon Vazquez

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 10-1

Good Trip: What's seen by some as a history of perfect trips turns out to be a perfect marriage between a horse with tactical speed and a rider who knows how to use it. He sits the stalking trip that wins a lot of Kentucky Derbies, pounces at just the right time, and has enough left to fend off the closers.

Bad Trip: Yep, everything fell into place in the last several races perfectly for this colt. Maybe he faces adversity, or perhaps he's just not a 10-furlong horse. However, he fades to finish in the middle of the pack and goes back to California to regroup.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#11: Disarm

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: Team Epicenter returns with a less-fancied runner than the one they had a year ago, but they leave with a similar check. Disarm runs back to his Louisiana Derby effort, where he was the only horse making up ground in the stretch. He's not quite talented enough to threaten the winner, but he clunks up for second at a big price.

Bad Trip: Disarm's effort is closer to his run in the G3 Lexington, where he finished a distant third and earned just enough points to make the Derby field. Maybe the race shape isn't so closer-friendly, and maybe he's just not quite good enough to beat these.

Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.

#12: Jace's Road

Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post (by Silver Deputy)

Owners: Albaugh Family Stables and West Point Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Breeder: Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: One of the longer shots on the board serves as a pace factor in the early going. He presses the early leaders, gives his connections a brief thrill, and sets things up for a closer (possibly the stablemate breaking two stalls to his outside).

Bad Trip: Jace's Road doesn't come close to making the lead. He starts spinning his wheels going up the backstretch and comes up empty against the best horses of his generation.

Jace's Road was bred in Kentucky by Richard Santulli's Colts Neck Stables, out of the stakes-placed Silver Deputy mare Out Post. The colt sold to his current ownership for $510,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. After being purchased as a yearling for $250,000, Out Post raced for Jayeff B Stables, of which Santulli is a partner, then she raced for Santulli alone before entering his broodmare band.

#13: Sun Thunder

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owners: R.T. Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.

Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: …well, he's had a bunch of unlucky ones lately, hasn't he? On this occasion, though, Sun Thunder gets room to operate, along with plenty of pace for him to close into. He's not talented enough to win the race, but he cashes a big check for his connections and earns a spot in the hearts of those who use him at a huge number in tri's and super's.

Bad Trip: It's easier than ever to find trouble in a setting like this one, and Sun Thunder's trend of doing so rears up again. As a result, the late-running longshot is never seriously involved.

Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.

#14: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Morning Line Odds: 8-1

Good Trip: A horse that's taken steps forward with every start this season takes another one. Angel of Empire sits a perfect trip beneath his world-class rider, and it's a carbon copy of the G1 Arkansas Derby. He loops the leaders going around the far turn, hits the top of the stretch in front, and powers home as much the best.

Bad Trip: The pace doesn't fall apart as much as his last two starts. Instead of closing into a race that's falling apart, the early pace factors have something left in the tank. As such, Angel of Empire's closing kick is nowhere near as effective, and he doesn't run to his billing.

#15: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owners: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 3-1

Good Trip: Forte does what he's done in every one of his last five starts: He wins. A closer with more tactical speed than it sometimes appears, Forte uses that speed to sit a dream trip a few lengths off the pace. Unlike in the Florida Derby, it's Forte who gets the jump on his rivals, rather than having to sit back, and turning for home, the rest of the field has the reigning 2-year-old champ to catch. That proves easier said than done, and Pletcher gets his third Derby win.

Bad Trip: The speed figure handicappers prove correct, and Forte hasn't moved forward from his 2-year-old season. His usual race is enough for a check, but it's not the big one, and anti-chalk players rejoice at having found a vulnerable favorite on the first Saturday in May.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#16: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owners: Warren and Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Jockey: Gerardo Corrales

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: Remember how Rich Strike won last year, with a few horses going crazy up front? That scenario sort of materializes for a runner that capitalized on it once already with his score in the G3 Gotham. It doesn't mean Raise Cain wins, but he's moving forward when many others have given up the ghost, and that leads to an in-the-money finish.

Bad Trip: A horse that's 0-for-3 in two-turn races is shown to be a one-turn closer. This just isn't what he wants to do, and when other closers are starting their runs, Raise Cain simply can't keep up.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#17: Derma Sotogake

Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)

Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)

Morning Line Odds: 10-1

Good Trip: Derma Sotogake hits the front early and forgets to stop. His G2 UAE Derby trip repeats itself, and while it looks like the American runners have every chance to reel him in turning for home, they can't do it. Japan wins its first Kentucky Derby, and American breeders are faced with the realization that the rest of the world is catching up.

Bad Trip: The UAE Derby curse continues. Derma Sotogake either can't make the front or has to spend too much energy doing so. This field proves tougher than the one he demolished at Meydan, and he retreats through the field as they turn for home.

#18: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: A horse that's been working well since coming to Churchill Downs runs to that tab. Rocket Can isn't the caliber of horses like Forte or Tapit Trice, but he runs back to his early-season efforts at Gulfstream Park rather than his Arkansas Derby clunker. That's good enough to hit the board at a big price.

Bad Trip: The outside post compromises Rocket Can, who needs to be a bit forwardly-placed, isn't quite fast enough to clear most of the field, and loses lots of ground going around the first turn. That makes it tough for him to stick with a few horses that have beaten him once the real running starts.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#19: Lord Miles

Pedigree: Curlin – Lady Esme (by Majestic Warrior)

Owner: Vegso Racing Stables

Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.

Breeder: Vegso Racing Stable (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: His shocking win in the G2 Wood Memorial (you may have seen your fearless scribe tweet about it…) proves to not be a total fluke. Paco Lopez is able to get Lord Miles involved from the jump, and he's shown a wide trip isn't necessarily a disqualifying factor. He hangs on for a small piece of it at yet another big price.

Bad Trip: Lord Miles regresses off of a career-best race last time out. What we see on Saturday isn't the Lord Miles that outdueled Hit Show, but the one that couldn't keep up with Tapit Trice and Rocket Can earlier this year.

Lord Miles is a Kentucky homebred for Vesgo Racing Stable, out of the unraced Majestic Warrior mare Lady Esme, who is herself a Vesgo homebred. His second dam, Come a Callin was also bred and raced by Vesgo. The breeder bought into the family with the third dam, the unraced Twilight Service, who he purchased for $105,000 at the 2004 OBS March Sale.

#20: Continuar

Pedigree: Drefong – Pan de Ring (by King Kamehameha)

Owner: Lion Race Horse Co.

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi

Jockey: Ryusei Sakai

Breeder: Lake Villa Farm (JPN)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: Being totally honest, it's tough to imagine one, but I'll give it a try. Continuar runs a career-best race third off the bench and stays out of trouble with his far-outside post. The relatively clean journey at least allows him to salvage a finish in the top half of the field.

Bad Trip: Continuar has chased Derma Sotogake home three different times, and this race is no different. While one Japanese-bred horse is well-meant, it's not this one, who struggles to stay competitive.

#21 (AE): Cyclone Mischief

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere (by Bernardini)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Castleton Lyons

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Breeder: Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: Cyclone Mischief uses his tactical speed to clear most of the field and get comfortable near the front. He moved a bit too soon in the Florida Derby, but Rosario waits just a bit longer. He's not quite good enough to win, but he draws into the race and collects a minor award.

Bad Trip: Rocket Can's “bad trip” scenario lines up pretty well for Cyclone Mischief, too (we're closing in on 3,000 words; work with me, people!). He's got some speed, but it's not enough to clear the field, and the wide trip drains him early.

Cyclone Mischief was bred in Kentucky by Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate, out of the unplaced Bernardini mare Areyoucominghere. He sold to Albaugh Family Stables for $450,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Areyoucominghere was purchased by Castleton Lyons, pregnant to Into Mischief, for $350,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#22 (AE): Mandarin Hero

Pedigree: Shanghai Bobby – Namura Nadeshiko (by Fuji Kiseki)

Owner: Hiroaki Arai

Trainer: Terunobu Fujita

Jockey: Kazushi Kimura

Breeder: Hirano Bokujo (JPN)

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: A horse that's never run a bad race produces another big effort. The race shape proves to be friendly to closers, and Mandarin Hero picks off most of the field with his big late kick. Maybe it's not enough to get him into the winner's circle, but it IS enough to remind folks that Japanese breeders know what they're doing.

Bad Trip: The Santa Anita Derby comes back as a poor prep race. What was seen as Mandarin Hero nearly nailing Practical Move on the wire is actually Practical Move running up against his own distance limitations, and this one struggles against the rest of the crop.

#23 (AE): King Russell

Pedigree: Creative Cause – Believe You Will (by Proud Citizen)

Owner: Brereton Jones and Naber Racing

Trainer: Ron Moquett

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Breeder: Brereton C. Jones (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: A closer miraculously drew in off of the AE list last year and had everything go his way. King Russell is an outsider in both post and ability, but he HAS improved with experience and finished a “best of the rest” second behind Angel of Empire at Oaklawn Park. The race collapses, and he comes rolling late for a small piece of the pie.

Bad Trip: King Russell was 58-1 in the Arkansas Derby, and that effort is revealed to be an outlier. A horse still eligible for a first-level allowance is left with far too much to do late.

King Russell was bred in Kentucky by Brereton Jones of Airdrie Stud, out of the unraced Proud Citizen mare Believe You Will, who is herself a homebred full-sister to Jones' 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can. Second dam El Fasto was also a homebred for Jones.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Playing ‘Good Trip, Bad Trip’ With The 2023 Field appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

Most weeks, the Derby Bubble focuses on, well, the Kentucky Derby. However, this week, we'll look at the fillies and the 2023 Kentucky Oaks.

A field of 14 3-year-old females will line up on the first Friday in May. With just a week until that day, let's dive into the prospective field!

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Wet Paint

Pedigree: Blame – Sky Painter (by Street Cry)

Owner: Godolphin

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Godolphin (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 170

We'll start in the most logical place, with the filly that's emerged as the probable Kentucky Oaks favorite. Wet Paint comes into the Oaks on a streak of three straight stakes wins at Oaklawn Park. Most recently, she rallied from last to first to win the G3 Fantasy. She's coming into form at the right time for a barn that wins races as well as any on the circuit, and that's impossible to ignore.

Wet Paint was homebred in Kentucky by Godolphin, out of the Grade 3-placed Street Cry mare Sky Painter, who is herself a Godolphin homebred. The operation of Sheikh Mohammed Al-Maktoum entered into the family through second dam Skylighter, a Grade 2 winner who joined the broodmare band during Godolphin's acquisition of Stonerside Stable and its equine assets.

#2: And Tell Me Nolies

Pedigree: Arrogate – Be Fair (by Exchange Rate)

Owner: Peter Redekop

Trainer: Peter Miller

Breeder: Lara Run LLC (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 70

It's weird putting a horse second when she hasn't won her last three starts. However, And Tell Me Nolies has been chasing the undefeated Faiza, who is ineligible for Kentucky Oaks points and would be no worse than this race's second choice. This filly, meanwhile, won a pair of graded stakes races as a 2-year-old. Toss out her clunker in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, and assume Faiza doesn't exist (which, for the sake of the Kentucky Oaks, she doesn't), and her resume looks much, much better.

And Tell Me Nolies was bred in Kentucky by Lara Run LLC, out of the Grade 3-winning Exchange Rate mare Be Fair. She sold as a short yearling for $70,000 at the 2021 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, then she brought $230,000 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training. Lara Run acquired Be Fair, pregnant to Practical Joke, for $50,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.

#3: Pretty Mischievous

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Pretty City Dancer (by Tapit)

Owner: Godolphin

Trainer: Brendan Walsh

Breeder: Godolphin (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 103

Pretty Mischievous has never run a bad race. In six career starts, she's notched four wins and hasn't been worse than third. Two of those victories came in stakes races, and she may have moved just a bit too soon in the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks. Furthermore, she's 2-for-3 at Churchill Downs, so you know she can handle this surface.

Pretty Mischievous is a Kentucky homebred for Godolphin, out of the Grade 1-winning Tapit mare Pretty City Dancer. Godolphin acquired the dam, pregnant to Medaglia d'Oro for $3.5 million at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#4: Southlawn

Pedigree: Pioneerof the Nile – Mo d'Amour (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Robert Masterson

Trainer: Norm Casse

Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 100

The question is, which Southlawn do you think shows up on the first Friday in May? If it's the Southlawn that's won two straight at Fair Grounds, including a handy score in the Fair Grounds Oaks, she's got a big shot. However, it's worth noting she's 0-for-2 over the main track at Churchill Downs, and she wasn't better than fifth either time. Perhaps she's matured since her 2-year-old campaign, though, and if she has, she's a threat.

Southlawn was bred in Kentucky by WinStar Farm, out of the Grade 2-placed Uncle Mo mare Mo d'Amour. Masterson bought Southlawn for $290,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. 

#5: Defining Purpose

Pedigree: Cross Traffic – Defining Hope (by Strong Hope)

Owner: Magdalena Racing, Vanmatre, and Ball

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Breeder: Colette Marie VanMatre (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 107

Defining Purpose pulled off a 20-1 upset in the G1 Ashland, but perhaps that shouldn't have been such a surprise from a pari-mutuel standpoint. She'd misfired in the G3 Honeybee, but previously ran third in the Martha Washington behind Wet Paint after winning a minor stakes race. She may still have some ground to make up on the division leader, but it sure seems like she's moving the right way.

Defining Purpose was bred in Kentucky by Colette Marie VanMatre, out of the multiple stakes-winning Strong Hope mare Defining Hope, who was herself a homebred for VanMatre. 

#6: The Alys Look

Pedigree: Connect – Foul Play (by Harlan's Holiday)

Owner: Ike and Dawn Thrash

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: G. Watts Humphrey Jr. (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 54

If you throw out the October 2022 clunker where she had a nightmare trip, The Alys Look really hasn't done much wrong. She came onto the scene with a win in January's Silverbulletday, and she punched her ticket to the Kentucky Oaks with a third-place finish in the Fair Grounds Oaks.  Cox has won this race twice, and between this one, Wet Paint, and another runner we'll talk about pretty soon, he's got every chance to walk away with a third bed of lilies.

The Alys Look was bred in Kentucky by G. Watts Humphrey Jr., out of the winning Harlan's Holiday mare Foul Play, who is herself a product of Humphrey's breeding program. This bloodline entered the Humphrey program through third dam Cyber Cat, who he acquired from his aunt, breeder Pamela Firman.

#7: Affirmative Lady

Pedigree: Arrogate – Stiffed (by Stephen Got Even)

Owner: AMO Racing USA

Trainer: Graham Motion

Breeder: Alastar Thoroughbred Co, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 110

Affirmative Lady sits second on the Oaks leaderboard after a mild 8-1 upset in the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. She was winless as a 2-year-old but danced some big dances, including when she ran second in the G2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct. She may need to improve again in order to contend with the divisional heavyweights, but given her distance-heavy pedigree, it's safe to assume the nine-furlong trip will be right in her wheelhouse.

Affirmative Lady was bred in Kentucky by Alastar Thoroughbred Co., out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning Stephen Got Even mare Stiffed. She was a $210,000 purchase at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. The breeder acquired Stiffed for $320,000, pregnant to Pioneerof the Nile, at the 2018 Keeneland November Sale.

#8: Botanical

Pedigree: Medaglia d'Oro – Daisy (by Blame)

Owner: LNJ Foxwoods and Clearsky Farms

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Clearsky Farms & Godolphin (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 70

When she was shipped to Turfway Park late last year, Botanical blossomed (yep, sometimes a writer just has to take the low-hanging fruit). She won a pair of stakes races in March, and one of those efforts was an easy wire-to-wire score in the Bourbonette Oaks. Of course, the big question is whether or not she can replicate that type of form on conventional dirt.

Botanical was bred in Kentucky by Clearsky Farms and Godolphin, out of the Grade 3-winning Blame mare Daisy. Botanical brought $220,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale.

#9: Wonder Wheel

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Wonder Gal (by Tiz Wonderful)

Owner: D.J. Stable

Trainer: Mark Casse

Breeder: Three Chimneys Farm, LLC & Clearsky Farms (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 48

What do we do with last year's champion 2-year-old filly? Wonder Wheel won two Grade 1 races last year and was second in another. This season, she just hasn't been the same horse. Her loss in the Suncoast was surprising. Her clunker in the Ashland was shocking. If Casse can orchestrate a return to her 2-year-old form, Wonder Wheel could have every chance…but as a handicapper, just how forgiving do you want to be?

Wonder Wheel was bred in Kentucky by Three Chimneys Farm and Clearsky Farms, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Tiz Wonderful mare Wonder Gal. D.J. Stable purchased Wonder Wheel for $275,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale.

#10: Promiseher America

Pedigree: American Pharoah – Promisedyouheaven (by Unbridled's Song)

Owner: Hoffman Thoroughbreds and Tom McCrocklin

Trainer: Ray Handal

Breeder: Robert Low & Lawana Low (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 100

The G3 Gazelle wasn't seen as one of the premier Oaks preps of the season, but Promiseher America shook up the standings with a 26-1 upset. She raced just once as a 2-year-old and was eligible for a first-level allowance at the time of her Gazelle shocker, but rather than be conservative, the Handal barn took a shot, and it paid off. It's likely, however, that she'll need another significant step forward next week.

Promiseher America was bred in Kentucky by Robert and Lawana Low, out of the winning Unbridled's Song mare Promisedyouheaven. The filly brought $75,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. The Lows bought Promisedyouheaven with Promiseher America in-utero for $370,000 at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#11: Dorth Vader

Pedigree: Girvin – Hardcore Candy (by Yonaguska)

Owner: John Ropes

Trainer: Michael Yates

Breeder: John Ropes (FL)

Kentucky Oaks points: 70

Dorth Vader blew up the tote board by winning the G2 Davona Dale at odds of 46-1 back in March. She followed that up, though, with a distant fourth behind Affirmative Lady in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. A look at her form tells a story: She's won three stakes races going one turn, but is unproven at two-turn routes.

#12: Gambling Girl

Pedigree: Dialed In – Tulipmania (by Empire Maker)

Owner: Repole Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gallagher's Stud (NY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 61

One of the more battle-tested horses on the Oaks trail, Gambling Girl has already raced nine times. She's won just twice, but her record includes four placings in Kentucky Oaks preps, including a second behind Promiseher America in the Gazelle. Pletcher's Hall of Fame career includes four wins in this race, most recently with Malathaat in 2021.

#13: Flying Connection

Pedigree: Nyquist – Free Flying Soul (by Quiet American)

Owner: King, Andrews, Coleman, Cone et al

Trainer: Todd Fincher

Breeder: Liberty Road Stables (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 50

Flying Connection wintered in New Mexico and has developed into a horse with ample early speed. That was a weapon in the Sunland Park Oaks, where she went wire-to-wire and locked up a third career stakes win. The waters are much, much deeper here, but at a minimum, one has to think she's a pace factor.

Flying Connection was bred in Kentucky by Liberty Road Stables, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Quiet American mare Free Flying Soul. The ownership group bought Flying Connection for $250,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Free Flying Soul was purchased by Marsha Naify of Liberty Road Stables for $125,000 at the 2007 Barretts May 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#14: Mimi Kakushi

Pedigree: City of Light – Rite Moment (by Vicar)

Owner: Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum

Trainer: Salem Bin Ghadayer

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 50

We'll finish off this list with the shipper from Dubai. Mimi Kakushi has won three in a row, including the G3 UAE Oaks. She hasn't run since that February effort, though, and while the winner of the Kentucky Derby prep at Meydan is getting plenty of steam, it wouldn't be a shock if this one was one of the longer shots on the board in the Derby's sister race.

Mimi Kakushi was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds, out of the multiple Grade 2-winning Vicar mare Rite Moment. The filly sold as a yearling for $180,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Sale, then she brought $250,000 the following year at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Rite Moment, pregnant to Smart Strike, for $400,000 at the 2010 Keeneland November sale.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: A Look At The Kentucky Oaks Contenders appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

All of the Kentucky Derby preps have officially been run. Saturday's Grade 3 Lexington was the final points-bearing race on the schedule, and it ensured one horse of a spot in this field (assuming the connections want it).

We're now simply waiting on the defections that come every year. With that in mind, here's the latest top 20 list, which is led by a very familiar face…

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 190

Let me get this straight. Last year's champion 2-year-old male breaks from post #11 at Gulfstream, where horses breaking from post #11 going 1 1/8 miles may as well be starting in Pete Aiello's announcer's booth, in the G1 Florida Derby. He takes dirt the whole way around, gives Mage (a good horse) a two-length head start turning for home, wins anyway to earn his fourth Grade 1 win at a third different track…and according to some in the game, I'm supposed to think his status at the top of this list should be threatened? Nope. To me, Forte is the clear frontrunner in this division heading into the Kentucky Derby, as he has been since last fall.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 150

Tapit Trice passed a significant test in the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland. Breaking from the rail with a history of gate issues and a running style that indicates he needs to be urged hard to stay engaged, there were red flags. However, beneath a brilliant ride from Luis Saez, the second Pletcher trainee in a row on this list ran down perfect-trip runner-up Verifying and likely stamped himself as the Derby's second choice behind his stablemate.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#3: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 154

Angel of Empire ran very, very well in the G1 Arkansas Derby. He never looked like a loser at any point, as he rated off a pace that, despite not looking too fast, didn't hold up once the field turned for home. He did a lot of things right at Oaklawn, and he goes into the Derby with two straight high-profile graded stakes wins (having also won the G2 Risen Star earlier this season).

#4: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 160

Practical Move earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure in taking the G1 Santa Anita Derby. He did what he had to do to keep his spot as the West Coast's top Kentucky Derby threat, but I saw a few things I wasn't crazy about. For the second straight race, he sat a picture-perfect trip, and this time, the wire came just before he could be reeled in. I do not have doubts about his ability, but I can't say the same about my feelings on if he can get the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby trip.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#5: Derma Sotogake

Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)

Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Derma Sotogake turned heads with his easy score in the G2 UAE Derby. However, when Mandarin Hero, considered a second-tier Japanese horse by some, ran a fantastic second to Practical Move at Santa Anita, it spurred a re-evaluation of the Japanese contingent. If a horse from Japan's “lower-level” circuit can run that well against a legitimate Derby prospect, what does it say about a horse that's more highly-regarded in the land of the rising sun?

#6: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Kingsbarns never looked like a loser in the G2 Louisiana Derby. He was part of a very slow pace and had plenty left turning for home. It wasn't the fastest Louisiana Derby on record, and a number of closers didn't fire (possibly due to the race shape more than anything else), but Kingsbarns passed his first significant test. In addition, his win going 1 3/16 miles indicates that, if he doesn't run well in Kentucky, it won't be because of that race's 1 1/4-mile distance.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#7: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owner: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Mage made a significant move up after running big to be second in the Florida Derby. He didn't break well, but he made an eye-catching move into contention going around the far turn before being run down by the top horse on this list. This is twice in as many two-turn starts that he's found some trouble, which isn't the best thing, but on the other hand, he's inexperienced enough to where he may still be learning and developing. Either way, he showed plenty last time out.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#8: Verifying

Pedigree: Justify – Diva Delite (by Repent)

Owner: Westerberg, Magnier, Poulin, Smith and Tabor

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Verifying had a nightmare trip in the G2 Rebel, when he was fourth behind Confidence Game. His journey was much easier in the Blue Grass, when he used his tactical speed to sit in a perfect spot most of the way. He and Tapit Trice were well, well clear of the rest of that field, and in finishing a close-up second, this colt gives the Cox barn yet another Derby contender.

Verifying was bred in Kentucky by Hunter Valley and Mountmellick Farm, out of the Grade 3-winning Repent mare Diva Delite, making him a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou. He sold to M.V. Magnier of the Coolmore partnership for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. The breeders purchased Diva Delite for $1.2 million, with Verifying in-utero, at the 2019 Keeneland November sale.

#9: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the G2 Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. Two big questions, though: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Also, how comfortable are you betting on a horse that put forth a big effort in February, yet hasn't raced since?

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#10: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 123

When Jareth Loveberry rode for Rivelli last month, he KNEW he was live (yes, we're still referencing the greatest commercial in horse racing history). Two Phil's dominated in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and earned some pretty big speed figures (especially compared to the rest of his crop). If they were running the Kentucky Derby over that synthetic track, I'd have him much, much higher on this list. The question is, can he replicate that race on dirt? To run with the likes of Forte, Tapit Trice, and Angel of Empire, he may have to do just that.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#11: Lord Miles

Pedigree: Curlin – Lady Esme (by Majestic Warrior)

Owner: Vegso Racing Stable

Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.

Breeder: Vegso Racing Stable (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Lord Miles entered the Andrew Champagne Gambling Hall of Fame when he won the G2 Wood Memorial at odds of 59-1. That race came after clunkers in both the G3 Holy Bull and the G2 Tampa Bay Derby, but he capitalized on some class relief and won despite a bit of a wide trip. Despite his well-deserved spot in my heart, though, my brain tells me that class relief will be gone come Kentucky Derby time. Still, he's better than the two clunkers he ran earlier this season, and he showed that on Saturday afternoon.

Lord Miles is a Kentucky homebred for Vesgo Racing Stable, out of the unraced Majestic Warrior mare Lady Esme, who is herself a Vesgo homebred. His second dam, Come a Callin was also bred and raced by Vesgo. The breeder bought into the family with the third dam, the unraced Twilight Service, who he purchased for $105,000 at the 2004 OBS March Sale.

#12: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Hit Show didn't have things easy when he broke from post #13 in the Wood, was wide throughout, and then wound up between horses throughout the stretch run. He couldn't hold off Lord Miles, but he did finish second. If you liked him as a Derby prospect before the Wood, you're certainly going to get better odds now that he didn't win his final prep race, and it's not like he ran terribly enough to scare someone off who saw something they liked when he won the G3 Withers earlier this year.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#13: Disarm

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 46

Disarm was a distant third in Saturday's Lexington, but that was enough to get him into the Derby field. Those six points allow him to sneak in, and that's music to the ears of those who liked his second-place finish behind Kingsbarns in the Louisiana Derby. Supporters probably hoped he would've finished closer to the top two last weekend, and that's why he's down a few spots, but in fairness, it's tough to close ground at Keeneland's 1 1/16-mile configuration (which features a very short stretch).

Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.

#14: Reincarnate

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 45

A photo for third place in the Arkansas Derby saw Reincarnate edge Rocket Can. In doing so, the gray likely earned enough Derby points to ensure a spot in this year's field (a fourth-place finish would've put him in a precarious spot). Prior to that effort, Reincarnate won the G3 Sham at Santa Anita while in the barn of Bob Baffert before running third in the Rebel for Yakteen (where he earned the rest of his points).

Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#15: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 64

Raise Cain romped to a 23-1 upset in the G3 Gotham and stepped up the class ladder in the Blue Grass. He was a well-beaten fifth, but one can argue he may have been third-best behind the runaway top pair. He was last of 10 early and got floated very, very wide turning for home. At a minimum, he showed two turns should not be what gets him beat, and if you're looking for a deep closer on Derby Day to potentially do a Rich Strike impression, perhaps this is one you can talk yourself into.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#16: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Rocket Can won the G3 Holy Bull before running into Forte in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Owner Frank Fletcher is an Arkansas native, which played a role in this colt shipping to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby. It's not like he ran terribly to be fourth behind Angel of Empire, but if you were expecting a significant move forward, that's not what you got. Mott has shipped Rocket Can to Churchill, and this one has more than enough points to make the Derby field, but he added a decision on his status for that race has not been made.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#17: Continuar

Pedigree: Drefong – Pan de Ring (by King Kamehameha)

Owner: Lion Race Horse Co.

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi

Breeder: Lake Villa Farm (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: Invitation

Continuar earned a spot in the field by way of Japan's Road to the Kentucky Derby, and his resume includes a win in the 2022 Cattleya Stakes. Since then, he's run fifth in Saudi Arabia and third in Dubai. Of the Japanese runners, Derma Sotogake appears more well-meant, but as we found out in the Santa Anita Derby, blindly dismissing runners from Japan may prove unwise.

#18: Blazing Sevens

Pedigree: Good Magic – Trophy Girl (by Warrior's Reward)

Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing

Trainer: Chad Brown

Breeder: Tracy Farmer (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 46

Blazing Sevens returns to this list after salvaging third in the Blue Grass. In doing so, he earned just enough Kentucky Derby points to ensure a spot in the field. Last year's winner of the G1 Champagne, however, hasn't shown he can stretch that form out to two turns quite yet. He's 2-for-3 around one turn, with the lone loss being a third-place finish in the G1 Hopeful. Going two turns, he's 0-for-3, and the third-place finish in the Blue Grass is his only in-the-money finish in those events.

Blazing Sevens was bred in Kentucky by Tracy Farmer, out of the winning Warrior's Reward mare Trophy Girl. After bringing $140,000 as a newly-turned yearling at the 2021 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, Blazing Sevens sold for $250,000 that summer at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale. Farmer acquired Trophy Girl as a weanling for $62,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#19: Sun Thunder

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owner: R T Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Sun Thunder sneaks back onto this list after a fourth-place finish in the Blue Grass got him enough points to make the Derby field. Unlike many of his contemporaries, he's been a busy boy this year, having run in four prep races. Most notably, he was a close-up second behind Angel of Empire in the Risen Star back in February.

Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.

#20: Wild On Ice

Pedigree: Tapizar – Slamitagain (by Grand Slam)

Owner: Frank Sumpter

Trainer: Joel Marr

Breeder: Frank Sumpter (TX)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

We'll finish off the list with a late Triple Crown nominee. Wild On Ice pulled off a 35-1 shocker in the G3 Sunland Derby, and was supplemented to the prestigious series shortly after that effort. After a workout this week at Sunland Park, his connections opted to keep him on track for the Run for the Roses, and it's looking like 60-year-old regular rider Ken Tohill will become the oldest jockey in Kentucky Derby history.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: The Waiting Game Begins appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

The 100-point Kentucky Derby preps have come and gone. With that, the picture for the first Saturday in May is coming more and more into focus.

Only one more prep race is on the calendar. Saturday's Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland offers one last chance for Kentucky Derby points. It's a big chance for one contender that probably needs a top-three finish to ensure a spot in the field, and we'll get to that runner in just a bit.

We'll start this list, however, the same way we have since this column returned earlier this year…

#1: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 190

Let me get this straight. Last year's champion 2-year-old male breaks from post #11 at Gulfstream, where horses breaking from post #11 going 1 1/8 miles may as well be starting in Pete Aiello's announcer's booth, in the G1 Florida Derby. He takes dirt the whole way around, gives Mage (a good horse) a two-length head start turning for home, wins anyway to earn his fourth Grade 1 win at a third different track…and according to some in the game, I'm supposed to think his status at the top of this list should be threatened? Nope. To me, Forte is the clear frontrunner in this division heading into the Kentucky Derby, as he has been since last fall.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 150

Tapit Trice passed a significant test in Saturday's G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Breaking from the rail with a history of gate issues and a running style that indicates he needs to be urged hard to stay engaged, there were red flags. However, beneath a brilliant ride from Luis Saez, the second Pletcher trainee in a row on this list ran down perfect-trip runner-up Verifying and likely stamped himself as the Derby's second choice behind his stablemate.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#3: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 154

Angel of Empire ran very, very well in the G1 Arkansas Derby. He never looked like a loser at any point, as he rated off a pace that, despite not looking too fast, didn't hold up once the field turned for home. He did a lot of things right at Oaklawn, and he goes into the Derby with two straight high-profile graded stakes wins (having also won the G2 Risen Star earlier this season).

#4: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 160

Practical Move earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure in taking Saturday's G1 Santa Anita Derby. He did what he had to do to keep his spot as the West Coast's top Kentucky Derby threat, but I saw a few things I wasn't crazy about. For the second straight race, he sat a picture-perfect trip, and this time, the wire came just before he could be reeled in. I do not have doubts about his ability, but I can't say the same about my feelings on if he can get the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby trip.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#5: Derma Sotogake

Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)

Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Perhaps the biggest winner this past weekend was a horse that didn't even run. Derma Sotogake turned heads with his easy score in the UAE Derby. However, when Mandarin Hero, considered a second-tier Japanese horse by some, ran a fantastic second to Practical Move, it spurred a re-evaluation of the Japanese contingent. If a horse from Japan's “lower-level” circuit can run that well against a legitimate Derby prospect, what does it say about a horse that's more highly-regarded in the land of the rising sun?

#6: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Kingsbarns never looked like a loser in the G2 Louisiana Derby. He was part of a very slow pace and had plenty left turning for home. It wasn't the fastest Louisiana Derby on record, and a number of closers didn't fire (possibly due to the race shape more than anything else), but Kingsbarns passed his first significant test. In addition, his win going 1 3/16 miles indicates that, if he doesn't run well in Kentucky, it won't be because of that race's 1 1/4-mile distance.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#7: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owner: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Mage made a significant move up after running big to be second in the Florida Derby. He didn't break well, but he made an eye-catching move into contention going around the far turn before being run down by the top horse on this list. This is twice in as many two-turn starts that he's found some trouble, which isn't the best thing, but on the other hand, he's inexperienced enough to where he may still be learning and developing. Either way, he showed plenty last time out.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#8: Verifying

Pedigree: Justify – Diva Delite (by Repent)

Owner: Westerberg, Magnier, Poulin, Smith and Tabor

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Verifying had a nightmare trip in the G2 Rebel, when he was fourth behind Confidence Game. His journey was much easier Saturday in the Blue Grass, when he used his tactical speed to sit in a perfect spot most of the way. He and Tapit Trice were well, well clear of the rest of that field, and in finishing a close-up second, this colt gives the Cox barn yet another Derby contender.

Verifying was bred in Kentucky by Hunter Valley and Mountmellick Farm, out of the Grade 3-winning Repent mare Diva Delite, making him a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou. He sold to M.V. Magnier of the Coolmore partnership for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. The breeders purchased Diva Delite for $1.2 million, with Verifying in-utero, at the 2019 Keeneland November sale.

#9: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the G2 Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. Two big questions, though: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Also, how comfortable are you betting on a horse that put forth a big effort in February, yet hasn't raced since?

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#10: Disarm

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

And here's the horse for whom Saturday is a big, big day. Disarm got on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard by running a very solid second in the Louisiana Derby. However, 40 points may very well not be enough to ensure his spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Because of that, he'll take on 10 others in the Lexington. He'll likely be favored in that event, and just a few more points will give his connections much more security.

Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.

#11: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 123

When Jareth Loveberry rode for Rivelli last month, he KNEW he was live (yes, we're still referencing the greatest commercial in horse racing history). Two Phil's dominated in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and earned some pretty big speed figures (especially compared to the rest of his crop). If they were running the Kentucky Derby over that synthetic track, I'd have him much, much higher on this list. The question is, can he replicate that race on dirt? To run with the likes of Forte, Tapit Trice, and Angel of Empire, he may have to do just that.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#12: Lord Miles

Pedigree: Curlin – Lady Esme (by Majestic Warrior)

Owner: Vegso Racing Stable

Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.

Breeder: Vegso Racing Stable (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Lord Miles entered the Andrew Champagne Gambling Hall of Fame Saturday, when he won the G2 Wood Memorial at odds of 59-1. That race came after clunkers in both the G3 Holy Bull and the G2 Tampa Bay Derby, but he capitalized on some class relief and won despite a bit of a wide trip. Despite his well-deserved spot in my heart, though, my brain tells me that class relief will be gone come Kentucky Derby time. Still, he's better than the two clunkers he ran earlier this season, and he showed that on Saturday afternoon.

Lord Miles is a Kentucky homebred for Vesgo Racing Stable, out of the unraced Majestic Warrior mare Lady Esme, who is herself a Vesgo homebred. His second dam, Come a Callin was also bred and raced by Vesgo. The breeder bought into the family with the third dam, the unraced Twilight Service, who he purchased for $105,000 at the 2004 OBS March Sale.

#13: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Hit Show didn't have things easy on Saturday. He broke from post #13 in the Wood, was wide throughout, and then wound up between horses throughout the stretch run. He couldn't hold off Lord Miles, but he did finish second. If you liked him as a Derby prospect before the Wood, you're certainly going to get better odds now that he didn't win his final prep race, and it's not like he ran terribly enough to scare someone off who saw something they liked when he won the G3 Withers earlier this year.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#14: Reincarnate

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 45

A photo for third place in the Arkansas Derby saw Reincarnate edge Rocket Can. In doing so, the gray likely earned enough Derby points to ensure a spot in this year's field (a fourth-place finish would've put him in a precarious spot). Prior to that effort, Reincarnate won the G3 Sham at Santa Anita while in the barn of Bob Baffert before running third in the Rebel for Yakteen (where he earned the rest of his points).

Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#15: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 64

Raise Cain romped to a 23-1 upset in the G3 Gotham and stepped up the class ladder in the Blue Grass. He was a well-beaten fifth, but one can argue he may have been third-best behind the runaway top pair. He was last of 10 early and got floated very, very wide turning for home. At a minimum, he showed two turns should not be what gets him beat, and if you're looking for a deep closer on Derby Day to potentially do a Rich Strike impression, perhaps this is one you can talk yourself into.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#16: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Rocket Can won the G3 Holy Bull before running into Forte in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Owner Frank Fletcher is an Arkansas native, which played a role in this colt shipping to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby. It's not like he ran terribly to be fourth behind Angel of Empire, but if you were expecting a significant move forward Saturday, that's not what you got. Mott has shipped Rocket Can to Churchill, and this one has more than enough points to make the Derby field, but he added a decision on his status for that race has not been made.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#17: Continuar

Pedigree: Drefong – Pan de Ring (by King Kamehameha)

Owner: Lion Race Horse Co.

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi

Breeder: Lake Villa Farm (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: Invitation

Continuar earned a spot in the field by way of Japan's Road to the Kentucky Derby, and his resume includes a win in the 2022 Cattleya Stakes. Since then, he's run fifth in Saudi Arabia and third in Dubai. Of the Japanese runners, Derma Sotogake appears more well-meant, but as we found out in the Santa Anita Derby, blindly dismissing runners from Japan may prove unwise.

#18: Blazing Sevens

Pedigree: Good Magic – Trophy Girl (by Warrior's Reward)

Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing

Trainer: Chad Brown

Breeder: Tracy Farmer (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 46

Blazing Sevens returns to this list after salvaging third in the Blue Grass. In doing so, he earned just enough Kentucky Derby points to ensure a spot in the field. Last year's winner of the G1 Champagne, however, hasn't shown he can stretch that form out to two turns quite yet. He's 2-for-3 around one turn, with the lone loss being a third-place finish in the G1 Hopeful. Going two turns, he's 0-for-3, and the third-place finish in the Blue Grass is his only in-the-money finish in those events.

Blazing Sevens was bred in Kentucky by Tracy Farmer, out of the winning Warrior's Reward mare Trophy Girl. After bringing $140,000 as a newly-turned yearling at the 2021 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, Blazing Sevens sold for $250,000 that summer at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale. Farmer acquired Trophy Girl as a weanling for $62,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#19: Jace's Road

Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post (by Silver Deputy)

Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds, Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 45

Jace's Road ran third in the Louisiana Derby. He pressed the very slow pace set by Kingsbarns, and while he couldn't stick with the top two, he had enough in reserve to finish a clear third. Most years, that would be enough to clinch a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. However, if Disarm hits the board in the Lexington, Jace's Road would fall out of that group (due to lower non-restricted stakes earnings than Reincarnate, who also has 45 points).

Jace's Road was bred in Kentucky by Richard Santulli's Colts Neck Stables, out of the stakes-placed Silver Deputy mare Out Post. The colt sold to his current ownership for $510,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. After being purchased as a yearling for $250,000, Out Post raced for Jayeff B Stables, of which Santulli is a partner, then she raced for Santulli alone before entering his broodmare band.

#20: Wild On Ice

Pedigree: Tapizar – Slamitagain (by Grand Slam)

Owner: Frank Sumpter

Trainer: Joel Marr

Breeder: Frank Sumpter (TX)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

We'll finish off the list with a late Triple Crown nominee. Wild On Ice pulled off a 35-1 shocker in the G3 Sunland Derby, and was supplemented to the prestigious series shortly after that effort. After a workout this week at Sunland Park, his connections opted to keep him on track for the Run for the Roses, and it's possible 60-year-old regular rider Ken Tohill becomes the oldest jockey in Kentucky Derby history.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Sorting Out Contenders As The Dust Settles appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

It's crunch time on the road to the Kentucky Derby. A pair of 100-point preps were run last weekend, and we've got three on tap this coming Saturday that feature plenty of horses on this list.

Before we dive in, allow me time for a reminder and two honorable mentions. This, as mentioned last week, is turning into a hybrid list. It's not a straight ranking of 3-year-olds, but a ranking of horses likely to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

The two honorable mentions are Instant Coffee and National Treasure. Instant Coffee got bumped off by horses with more Derby points, while National Treasure needs a top-two finish in Saturday's Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby to ensure a spot in the 20-horse field. Both are immensely talented horses, and a straight “most talented horses in the division” list would have them on it in fairly high spots, but they miss out for those reasons (at least for right now).

With that out of the way, let's dive right in to a list led by the same horse that's topped my rankings since they started…

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 190

Let me get this straight. Last year's champion 2-year-old male breaks from post #11 at Gulfstream Park, where horses breaking from post #11 going 1 1/8 miles may as well be starting in Pete Aiello's announcer's booth, in last Saturday's G1 Florida Derby. He takes dirt the whole way around, gives Mage (a good horse) a two-length head start turning for home, wins anyway to earn his fourth Grade 1 win at a third different track…and according to some in the game, I'm supposed to think his status at the top of this list should be threatened? Nope. To me, Forte is the clear frontrunner in this division heading into the Kentucky Derby, as he has been since last fall.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 154

Don't get me wrong, though: Angel of Empire ran very, very well in Saturday's G1 Arkansas Derby. He never looked like a loser at any point, as he rated off a pace that, despite not looking too fast, didn't hold up once the field turned for home. He did a lot of things right at Oaklawn, and he goes into the Derby with two straight high-profile graded stakes wins (having also won the G2 Risen Star earlier this season).

#3: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Tapit Trice was visually impressive in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He broke slowly and was pumped on throughout by Luis Saez, but ran by them all and looked like a horse that will have no problems with even more distance. There are some red flags here, though. He's broken slowly a few times now, and it's not like he was rallying past world-beaters. It might be far tougher to run like that against stiffer competition, but the plan is for him to get that test in this Saturday's G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. The question is, can he overcome the rail draw?

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#4: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

A winner of three of four starts to date, Hit Show cruised home to win the G3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. His final Derby prep comes in Saturday's G2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, where he figures to be a pretty heavy favorite despite drawing post #13 in a 13-horse field.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#5: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Practical Move's win in the G2 San Felipe assures him of enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field, and it was his second straight graded stakes win on the SoCal circuit. If there's anything to nitpick, it's that he had a perfect trip that day, but on the other hand, it was his tactical speed that got him into striking position in the first place. He'll have another chance to solidify his status in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#6: Geaux Rocket Ride

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Beyond Grace (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Pin Oak Stud

Trainer: Richard Mandella

Breeder: OXO Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

It spoke volumes that Richard Mandella opted to run Geaux Rocket Ride in the San Felipe off of a single prior outing. The colt rewarded his Hall of Fame conditioner with a strong second, one where he re-rallied after being shuffled back on the far turn. In doing so, he showed plenty of grit, and that, combined with a pedigree that hints more distance will be right up his alley, inspires some confidence moving forward. He will, however, need to earn some points Saturday at Santa Anita to ensure a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

Geaux Rocket Ride was bred in Kentucky by Larry Best's OXO Equine, out of the the unplaced Uncle Mo mare Beyond Grace. He sold for $350,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Best purchased Beyond Grace for $1.5 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#7: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Kingsbarns never looked like a loser in the G2 Louisiana Derby. He was part of a very slow pace and had plenty left turning for home. It wasn't the fastest Louisiana Derby on record, and a number of closers didn't fire (possibly due to the race shape more than anything else), but Kingsbarns passed his first significant test. In addition, his win going 1 3/16 miles indicates that, if he doesn't run well in Kentucky, it won't be because of that race's 1 1/4-mile distance.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#8: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owner: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Mage makes a significant move up this week after running big to be second in the Florida Derby. He didn't break well Saturday, but he made an eye-catching move into contention going around the far turn before being run down by the top horse on this list. This is twice in as many two-turn starts that he's found some trouble, which isn't the best thing, but on the other hand, he's inexperienced enough to where he may still be learning and developing. Either way, he showed plenty this past weekend.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#9: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the G2 Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. The big question: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Hopefully, we'll get an answer sooner rather than later.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#10: Disarm

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

There was a lot to like about Disarm's run in the Louisiana Derby. He had significant traffic trouble and rated in a race with a pretty slow pace. However, he was the closer moving best of all late in just the fourth start of his young career. He's bred to go long, and the 10-furlong distance of the Run for the Roses shouldn't be a problem.

Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.

#11: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 123

When Jareth Loveberry rode for Rivelli last month, he KNEW he was live (yes, we're still referencing the greatest commercial in horse racing history). Two Phil's dominated in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and earned some pretty big speed figures (especially compared to the rest of his crop). If they were running the Kentucky Derby over that synthetic track, I'd have him much, much higher on this list. The question is, can he replicate that race on dirt? To run with the likes of Forte and Angel of Empire, he may have to do just that.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#12: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

I'd wager I have Raise Cain higher than many who author similar lists. It's true there are things to nitpick about his win in the G3 Gotham. However, I really liked that he overcame some adversity. He was stopped going around the far turn and had an excuse to spit the bit, but he resumed his rally and wound up romping by more than seven lengths. He'll get a much bigger test in Saturday's Blue Grass, where he'll have to navigate a trip from the #10 post against Tapit Trice (and many others).

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#13: Derma Sotogake

Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)

Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Horses from the land of the rising sun swept the top four positions in the G2 UAE Derby at Meydan. Derma Sotogake did it easily, too, leading every step of the way and having plenty left when called upon turning for home. That's all great, but the record of UAE Derby alumni in the Kentucky Derby is absolutely abysmal. At some point, a horse will buck that trend, and at some point a Japan-based horse will almost certainly win the Kentucky Derby, but is this the year?

#14: Reincarnate

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 45

A photo for third place in the Arkansas Derby saw Reincarnate edge Rocket Can. In doing so, the gray likely earned enough Derby points to ensure a spot in this year's field (a fourth-place finish would've put him in a precarious spot). Prior to that effort, Reincarnate won the G3 Sham at Santa Anita while in the barn of Bob Baffert before running third in the Rebel for Yakteen (where he earned the rest of his points).

Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#15: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Rocket Can won the G3 Holy Bull before running into Forte in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Owner Frank Fletcher is an Arkansas native, which played a role in this colt shipping to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby. It's not like he ran terribly to be fourth behind Angel of Empire, but if you were expecting a significant move forward Saturday, that's not what you got. Mott has shipped Rocket Can to Churchill, and this one has more than enough points to make the Derby field, but he added a decision on his status for that race has not been made.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#16: Cyclone Mischief

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere (by Bernardini)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Castleton Lyons

Trainer: Dale Romans

Breeder: Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 45

Romans was very high on Cyclone Mischief after an impressive score in January. The colt ran a clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, but has since run third to Forte twice. Most recently, he ran head-to-head with Mage turning for home in the Florida Derby before settling for a minor award. He didn't get to save much ground on Saturday, and perhaps he's rounding into form ahead of the first Saturday in May.

Cyclone Mischief was bred in Kentucky by Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate, out of the unplaced Bernardini mare Areyoucominghere. He sold to Albaugh Family Stables for $450,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Areyoucominghere was purchased by Castleton Lyons, pregnant to Into Mischief, for $350,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#17: King Russell

Pedigree: Creative Cause – Believe You Will (by Proud Citizen)

Owner: Brereton Jones and Naber Racing

Trainer: Ron Moquett

Breeder: Brereton C. Jones (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

King Russell was the longest shot on the board in the Arkansas Derby, and in the early stages of that race, he ran like it. However, he came flying late and finished second behind Angel of Empire, beating the likes of Reincarnate, Rocket Can, and Red Route One. He's still eligible for a first-level allowance, and Saturday's effort did come in a race where the early pace didn't hold up particularly well, but he's certainly shown an ability to be going the right way when the real running starts.

King Russell was bred in Kentucky by Brereton Jones of Airdrie Stud, out of the unraced Proud Citizen mare Believe You Will, who is herself a homebred full-sister to Jones' 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can. Second dam El Fasto was also a homebred for Jones.

#18: Jace's Road

Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post (by Silver Deputy)

Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds, Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 45

Jace's Road ran third in the Louisiana Derby, and in doing so pretty much clinched a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. He pressed the very slow pace set by Kingsbarns, and while he couldn't stick with the top two, he had enough in reserve to finish a clear third. There are speed figure questions surrounding that race, and he did have what seemed like a perfect trip, but this is a barn that simply cannot be ignored.

Jace's Road was bred in Kentucky by Richard Santulli's Colts Neck Stables, out of the stakes-placed Silver Deputy mare Out Post. The colt sold to his current ownership for $510,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. After being purchased as a yearling for $250,000, Out Post raced for Jayeff B Stables, of which Santulli is a partner, then she raced for Santulli alone before entering his broodmare band.

#19: Dura Erede

Pedigree: Duramente – Marchesa (by Orfevre)

Owner: Three H Racing

Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe

Breeder: Northern Racing (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

The runner-up in the UAE Derby appeared to have every chance to run down Derma Sotogake when the field turned for home. However, that one found another gear and won as much the best. Dura Erede, though, likely earned enough Derby points to make the field. He won Japan's G1 Hopeful Stakes as a 2-year-old, and the UAE Derby was his first start of 2023.

#20: Wild On Ice

Pedigree: Tapizar – Slamitagain (by Grand Slam)

Owner: Frank Sumpter

Trainer: Joel Marr

Breeder: Frank Sumpter (TX)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

We'll finish off the list with a late Triple Crown nominee. Wild On Ice pulled off a 35-1 shocker in the G3 Sunland Derby, and was supplemented to the prestigious series shortly after that effort. We're still not quite sure yet, though, if all systems are go for the Kentucky Derby. Per Mary Rampellini of the Daily Racing Form, he's expected to work Friday at Sunland and may ship to Kentucky over the weekend.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Forte Continues Doing Forte Things appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

Spring is upon us, and with it comes some of the final Kentucky Derby prep races of the season. Those include, of course, this weekend's Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream and G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. The winners of those races receive 100 Kentucky Derby points and ensure spots in that race's starting gate.

With the schedule in mind, this list is going to represent a bit of a hybrid moving forward. There are some horses that I think can do damage on the first Saturday in May that are on the outside looking in because several horses have enough points to make the Derby field. In order to get back on the list, they'll have to earn more points.

The top of this list, though, hasn't been in question for quite some time. With that in mind, let's get to it.

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 90

Despite drawing post #11 in a 12-horse field, Forte will be a heavy favorite in the Florida Derby. Todd Pletcher wasn't crazy about the post, but any sort of improvement second off the layoff will make last year's champion 2-year-old male very, very difficult to beat. Consider this, though: If you think Forte is the Derby winner, you may very well be rooting against him Saturday. While a loss would drive his price up a bit, a win likely makes him the shortest-priced favorite in a May Kentucky Derby since Point Given went off at 9/5 in 2001.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Tapit Trice was visually impressive in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He broke slowly and was pumped on throughout by Luis Saez, but ran by them all and looked like a horse that will have no problems with even more distance. There are some red flags here, though. He's broken slowly a few times now, and it's not like he was rallying past world-beaters. It might be far tougher to run like that against tougher competition, but the plan is for him to get that test in next month's G2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#3: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

A winner of three of four starts to date, Hit Show cruised home to win the G3 Withers at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. Last year's Withers produced an eventual Preakness winner in Early Voting, and this year's renewal might age well, too.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#4: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Practical Move's win in the G2 San Felipe assures him of enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field, and it was his second straight graded stakes win on the SoCal circuit. If there's anything to nitpick, it's that he had a perfect trip that day, but on the other hand, it was his tactical speed that got him into striking position in the first place.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#5: Geaux Rocket Ride

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Beyond Grace (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Pin Oak Stud

Trainer: Richard Mandella

Breeder: OXO Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

It spoke volumes that Richard Mandella opted to run Geaux Rocket Ride in the San Felipe off of a single prior outing. The colt rewarded his Hall of Fame conditioner with a strong second, one where he re-rallied after being shuffled back on the far turn. In doing so, he showed plenty of grit, and that, combined with a pedigree that hints more distance will be right up his alley, inspires some confidence moving forward.

Geaux Rocket Ride was bred in Kentucky by Larry Best's OXO Equine, out of the the unplaced Uncle Mo mare Beyond Grace. He sold for $350,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Best purchased Beyond Grace for $1.5 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#6: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Kingsbarns never looked like a loser in Saturday's G2 Louisiana Derby. He was part of a very slow pace and had plenty left turning for home. It wasn't the fastest Louisiana Derby on record, and a number of closers didn't fire (possibly due to the race shape more than anything else), but Kingsbarns passed his first significant test. In addition, his win going 1 3/16 miles indicates that, if he doesn't run well in Kentucky, it won't be because of that race's 1 1/4-mile distance.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#7: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Angel of Empire all but assured a spot in the Derby starting gate with his win in the G2 Risen Star. He was a big price that day, but outside of a turf try at Kentucky Downs last fall, he hasn't run a bad race to date. His lone other defeat was a second to Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones when that one got loose on the lead, and a win going 1 1/8 miles isn't something most of these horses have on their resumes yet. We'll learn more about him Saturday, when he'll run in the Arkansas Derby.

#8: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. The big question: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Hopefully, we'll get an answer sooner rather than later.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#9: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Much was made about the quality (or lack thereof) in the G3 Holy Bull, which Rocket Can won. However, he came back to run second behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth, and there's no shame in chasing last year's champion 2-year-old male home. Bill Mott knows how to develop a horse with experience and seasoning, so this one can't be counted out. We'll see if he takes another step forward Saturday at Oaklawn.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#10: Disarm

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Disarm is new to this list, and there was a lot to like about his run in the Louisiana Derby. He had significant traffic trouble and rated in a race with a pretty slow pace. However, he was the closer moving best of all late in just the fourth start of his young career. He's bred to go long, and the 10-furlong distance of the Run for the Roses shouldn't be a problem.

Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.

#11: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 123

When Jareth Loveberry rode for Rivelli Saturday, he KNEW he was live (yes, we're still referencing the greatest commercial in horse racing history). Two Phil's dominated in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and earned some pretty big speed figures (especially compared to the rest of his crop). If they were running the Kentucky Derby over that synthetic track, I'd have him much, much higher on this list. The question is, can he replicate that race on dirt? To run with the likes of Forte, he may have to do just that.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#12: Instant Coffee

Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Gold Square LLC

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 32

I can't drop Instant Coffee off this list quite yet. Yes, his run at Fair Grounds was incredibly disappointing. With that said, though, that may have just been a function of the race shape. Disarm, who ran very well, was the only closer who made up any ground late. Instant Coffee may need some help to make the Derby field, but if he does, there's every chance he moves forward going back to a Churchill Downs track he loves for a race that should have more speed signed on.

Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#13: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

I'd wager I have Raise Cain higher than many who author similar lists. It's true there are things to nitpick about his win in the G3 Gotham. However, I really liked that he overcame some adversity. He was stopped going around the far turn and had an excuse to spit the bit, but he resumed his rally and wound up romping by more than seven lengths. Raise Cain's record looks far better if you toss the clunker he ran over Turfway Park's synthetic surface, and I think there's plenty to intrigue those looking for bigger prices on the Derby trail.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#14: Derma Sotogake

Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)

Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Here comes Japan, as horses from the land of the rising sun swept the top four positions in the G2 UAE Derby Saturday at Meydan. Derma Sotogake did it easily, too, leading every step of the way and having plenty left when called upon turning for home. That's all great, but the record of UAE Derby alumni in the Kentucky Derby is absolutely abysmal. At some point, a horse will buck that trend, and at some point a Japan-based horse will almost certainly win the Kentucky Derby, but is this the year?

#15: Red Route One

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 33

Red Route One picked up another significant check when he rallied to finish second behind Confidence Game in the Rebel. He's still eligible for a first-level allowance race, but he's run enough big races in big spots to be fourth on the Derby leaderboard as of this writing. He doesn't appear to be quite as talented as Epicenter, who ran second for these connections one year ago, and he may have been surpassed by Disarm, who also carried these colors. However, one more solid run in a Derby prep would get Red Route One in the gate.

Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.

#16: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owner: OGMA Investments, Restropo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Unlike many of the big names in Saturday's Florida Derby, Mage lucked out at the post position draw. He'll break from post #4, and there are plenty of reasons to believe he's sitting on an improved effort. He had a very unlucky trip when fourth behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth, a race that was also his first start against winners and his first try going two turns. That's a lot to throw at a young horse, but one can argue he was second-best that day, and a step forward with an advantageous setup Saturday certainly seems possible.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#17: Skinner

Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)

Owner: C R K Stable

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 15

Skinner made a big middle move in the San Felipe before flattening out a bit to be third. It's possible he was asked for too much too early, and he didn't save much ground while making his move. A luckier trip next time out may very well get him the points he needs to make the Derby field, and he's got a pedigree that indicates more distance won't be an issue.

Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.

#18: Jace's Road

Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post (by Silver Deputy)

Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds, Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 45

Jace's Road ran third in the Louisiana Derby, and in doing so pretty much clinched a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. He pressed the very slow pace set by Kingsbarns, and while he couldn't stick with the top two, he had enough in reserve to finish a clear third. There are speed figure questions surrounding that race, and he did have what seemed like a perfect trip, but this is a barn that simply cannot be ignored.

Jace's Road was bred in Kentucky by Richard Santulli's Colts Neck Stables, out of the stakes-placed Silver Deputy mare Out Post. The colt sold to his current ownership for $510,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. After being purchased as a yearling for $250,000, Out Post raced for Jayeff B Stables, of which Santulli is a partner, then she raced for Santulli alone before entering his broodmare band.

#19: Dubyuhnell

Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)

Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

The only horse to get shafted worse than Forte at the Florida Derby post position draw was Dubyuhnell. Last year's G2 Remsen winner will break from post #12 in a field of 12, on a track that is far from kind to horses out that far going 1 1/8 miles. Dubyuhnell almost certainly needs a top-three finish to make the Kentucky Derby field, and while I believe he has the ability to do that, he certainly has his work cut out for him on Saturday afternoon.

Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.

#20: Dura Erede

Pedigree: Duramente – Marchesa (by Orfevre)

Owner: Three H Racing

Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe

Breeder: Northern Racing (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

The runner-up in the UAE Derby appeared to have every chance to run down Derma Sotogake when the field turned for home. However, that one found another gear and won as much the best. Dura Erede, though, earned enough Derby points to make the field. He won Japan's G1 Hopeful Stakes as a 2-year-old, and the UAE Derby was his first start of 2023.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Japan Has Entered The Chat appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

There were no Kentucky Derby preps last weekend, so this Derby Bubble is going to look a bit different. In this week's edition, I'll go horse by horse and draw comparisons to runners in past Kentucky Derbies that you might remember.

With the NFL Draft a month away, think of this as a distant cousin of prospect comparisons you'll see on whatever sports network of choice you watch. If nothing else, it's a fun exercise/trip down Memory Lane, so let's get started.

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 90

COMPARISON: Nyquist. Like Forte, Nyquist was the consensus top 2-year-old in his crop, and he came back clearly ahead of the rest of his rivals on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Others passed him later in the year, but Nyquist earned his place in history as just the second Thoroughbred to capture both the Derby and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. It's a list Forte will look to add himself to in less than two months.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Instant Coffee

Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Gold Square LLC

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 32

COMPARISON: McCraken. It's easy to forget this, but McCraken won his first four races, including the 2016 G2 Kentucky Jockey Club. The closer showed a clear affinity for Churchill Downs, much like Instant Coffee, who won the 2022 renewal of that race and has since added the G3 Lecomte.

Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#3: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

COMPARISON: Tapwrit. This is too easy. Son of Tapit? Check. Trained by Todd Pletcher? Check. G3 Tampa Bay Derby winner? Check. Looks like he wants to run all day long? You get the picture. Tapwrit was sixth in the 2017 Derby behind another horse we'll talk about later, but he put it all together five weeks later to take the Belmont.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#4: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

COMPARISON: Early Voting. It seems lazy, but there's plenty to like about comparing the last two G3 Withers winners (say THAT five times fast). Both made their stakes debuts in that race without much prior experience, and both won easily. Early Voting skipped the Derby after running second in the G2 Wood, but, of course, took the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#5: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

COMPARISON: McKinzie. Both runners won the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity prior to contesting the G2 San Felipe. The difference is, Practical Move had a much, much luckier trip in his renewal. While the Tim Yakteen trainee benefited from saving ground and having plenty of room turning for home, McKinzie was disqualified after a lengthy inquiry. The 2018 runner-up, though, wound up winning several important races later on, including that year's G1 Pennsylvania Derby and the 2019 G1 Whitney.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#6: Geaux Rocket Ride

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Beyond Grace (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Pin Oak Stud

Trainer: Richard Mandella

Breeder: OXO Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

COMPARISON: Paradise Woods. Yes, I'm comparing a colt to a filly, but in my defense, there aren't many times Richard Mandella has jumped a horse into top-tier competition off of a single maiden win. Paradise Woods romped in the G1 Santa Anita Oaks and showed herself as one of the top horses in her division multiple times. Geaux Rocket Ride, meanwhile, showed some maturity far beyond his experience when he re-rallied to run second in the G2 San Felipe.

Geaux Rocket Ride was bred in Kentucky by Larry Best's OXO Equine, out of the the unplaced Uncle Mo mare Beyond Grace. He sold for $350,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Best purchased Beyond Grace for $1.5 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#7: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

COMPARISON: Mandaloun. The fellow Cox trainee won the 2021 G2 Risen Star, faltered in the G2 Louisiana Derby, and then either won the Kentucky Derby or finished second behind Medina Spirit (depending on who you ask). Angel of Empire, meanwhile, won this year's renewal, and his form looks far better if you draw a line through September's failed try on turf at Kentucky Downs.

#8: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

COMPARISON: Exaggerator. This is another one that just makes too much sense. Exaggerator was a Keith Desormeaux-trained mud freak who chased Nyquist a few times before splashing his way home in the Preakness. Confidence Game is bred up and down for an off track, one he got when he won this year's G2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#9: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

COMPARISON: Upstart. Rocket Can's G3 Holy Bull win was the slowest renewal since the race stretched out to 1 1/16 miles in 2013. That mark was previously held by Upstart, but that's not an unflattering comparison (even though the Rick Violette trainee won just once after that). Upstart finished his career with more than $1.7 million in earnings and placed in six Grade 1 races.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#10: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

COMPARISON: I Want Revenge. Want to feel old? I Want Revenge overcame traffic that may as well have been imported in from Manhattan to win the Wood Memorial 14 years ago, in 2009. Raise Cain is almost certainly not of this caliber yet, but he got stopped going around the far turn in the G3 Gotham, had every excuse to give up the ghost, and instead won going away.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#11: Dubyuhnell

Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)

Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

COMPARISON: Overanalyze. Overanalyze won the 2012 G2 Remsen Stakes, was eliminated by his trip in his 3-year-old debut, and bounced out of that race to win the G1 Arkansas Derby. Dubyuhnell, meanwhile, won the Remsen 10 years later and had absolutely zero chance in the G3 Sam F. Davis due to terrible racing luck. He's been working steadily in Florida since that effort, though, and figures to get one more shot at Derby points.

Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.

#12: Red Route One

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 33

COMPARISON: Super Stock. Every year, there's at least one closer that clunks up for checks and Derby points with astounding regularity. This year, it's Red Route One, and two years ago, Super Stock fit that mold. Like his fellow Steve Asmussen trainee, Super Stock was eligible for a first-level allowance until the spring of his 3-year-old season. He then won the Arkansas Derby to earn his ticket to Louisville.

Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.

#13: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

COMPARISON: Always Dreaming. This is another one too easy to pass up. Like Always Dreaming, Kingsbarns is a Todd Pletcher trainee that the Hall of Famer has taken his time with. Both won races at Tampa Bay Downs when they could've run elsewhere for more money. Always Dreaming developed and took Derbies in Florida and Kentucky. Kingsbarns will have a shot at a Derby of his own, in Louisiana, this Saturday.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#14: Sun Thunder

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owner: R.T. Racing, Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 24

COMPARISON: Country House. The eventual 2019 Derby winner also ran second in the Risen Star in his fourth career start, the beginning of an old-school spring campaign that saw him run in four stakes races in just two and a half months. Sun Thunder, meanwhile, faces off against several horses on this list in Saturday's Louisiana Derby.

Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.

#15: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owner: OGMA Investments, Restropo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

COMPARISON: Social Inclusion. Here's a name that'll get folks going. Social Inclusion came out of nowhere to thump Honor Code in that one's 3-year-old debut, and he set a new track record in that effort. Neither Social Inclusion nor Mage raced as 2-year-olds, but they had enough talent to dance plenty of big dances against divisional heavyweights despite their inexperience.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#16: Skinner

Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)

Owner: C R K Stable

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 15

COMPARISON: Candy Boy. Candy Boy raced in the same colors as Skinner and made a name for himself on the 2014 Derby trail. He won the G2 Robert B. Lewis before finishing third in the G1 Santa Anita Derby and 13th in the Kentucky Derby. Skinner, meanwhile, was third in the San Felipe and could still have room to grow given his relative inexperience.

Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.

#17: Arctic Arrogance

Pedigree: Frosted – Modest Maven (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Chester and Mary Broman

Trainer: Linda Rice

Breeder: Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (NY)

Kentucky Derby points: 16

COMPARISON: Uncle Sigh. We'll stay in 2014 for this one, as Uncle Sigh, a fellow New York-bred, hadn't been worse than second in any start leading up to that year's Kentucky Derby. Arctic Arrogance has two wins and four seconds to this point, and while he missed the Gotham earlier this month, he remains possible for the Wood Memorial, where another good showing would give him more than enough points to make the Derby field.

#18: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 23

COMPARISON: The Tabulator. Rivelli's known more for sprinters than distance-types, but The Tabulator was briefly on the 2018 Derby trail after a win in the previous year's Iroquois and a fifth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile behind Good Magic. There are some distance questions with Two Phil's, but he'll have a chance to show his stamina in Saturday's Louisiana Derby and keep alive references to the greatest horse racing commercial ever made.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#19: Reincarnate

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 15

COMPARISON: Bob and John. This Bob Baffert trainee won the 2006 G3 Sham 17 years before Reincarnate annexed the race earlier this season. The two horses, each not necessarily in the first string of Derby hopefuls for their particular barns at the start of their 3-year-old campaigns, also each ran third in their next starts. Bob and John went on to add the Wood Memorial, and Reincarnate likely needs another strong performance of his own to make the Derby field.

Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#20: Curly Jack

Pedigree: Good Magic – Connie and Michael (by Roman Ruler)

Owner: Michael McLoughlin

Trainer: Tom Amoss

Breeder: Breeder: Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 17

COMPARISON: Lone Star Sky. We're going back 20 years for this one, as this fellow Amoss trainee also did his best work at Churchill Downs. Both runners won stakes races there as 2-year-olds before knocking heads with the best runners in their divisions. In Lone Star Sky's case, he ran 10 times before the Derby, and Curly Jack is also one of the most experienced horses in his generation.

Curly Jack was bred in Kentucky by the partnership of Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al., out of the Grade 1-placed Roman Ruler mare Connie and Michael, whose runners also include stakes-placed Fannie and Freddie. Curly Jack sold to owner Michael McLoughlin for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. 

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Do These Horses Look Familiar? appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

There was pretty major news on and off the track this week. We had a 50-point prep won by a highly-touted Todd Pletcher trainee, but that news was bumped off the front pages by the Kentucky Derby trail's first major defections.

Arabian Knight, who'd been sitting in the #2 spot for the past few weeks, was taken out of training. High-profile horses miss the Derby every year, and this time around, he's the first one to cause significant shifts near the top of this list. G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes winner Litigate's defection on Wednesday led to a further reshuffling of the top 10.

The top spot, however, remains unchanged. In fact, he's an even heavier favorite now that Arabian Knight won't be targeting the Run for the Roses…

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 90

It's impossible to start anywhere else. Forte was clearly the best 2-year-old of his class a season ago, and he never looked like a loser in the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. Even scarier for his rivals is the fact that this was his first race since the Breeders' Cup, and an effort he may very well have needed. If there's further improvement in store between now and the first Saturday in May…yikes.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Instant Coffee

Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Gold Square LLC

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 32

Instant Coffee rallied from last to first to win the G3 Lecomte, and he runs like a horse that will have no problem getting the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance. He also has a graded stakes win over the Churchill Downs surface, which came in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club. He's back on the work tab, which is great to see, and his next start will likely come in the G2 Louisiana Derby.

Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#3: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Tapit Trice was visually impressive in Saturday's G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He broke slowly and was pumped on throughout by Luis Saez, but ran by them all and looked like a horse that will have no problems with even more distance. There are some red flags here, though. He's broken slowly a few times now, and it's not like he was rallying past world-beaters Saturday afternoon. It might be far tougher to run like that against tougher competition, but the plan is for him to get that test in next month's G2 Blue Grass at Keeneland.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#4: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

A winner of three of four starts to date, Hit Show cruised home to win the G3 Withers at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. Last year's Withers produced an eventual Preakness winner in Early Voting, and this year's renewal might age well, too.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#5: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Practical Move's win in the G2 San Felipe assures him of enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field, and it was his second straight graded stakes win on the SoCal circuit. If there's anything to nitpick, it's that he had a perfect trip Saturday at Santa Anita, but on the other hand, it was his tactical speed that got him into striking position in the first place.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#6: Geaux Rocket Ride

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Beyond Grace (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Pin Oak Stud

Trainer: Richard Mandella

Breeder: OXO Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

It spoke volumes that Richard Mandella opted to run Geaux Rocket Ride in the San Felipe off of a single prior outing. The colt rewarded his Hall of Fame conditioner with a strong second, one where he re-rallied after being shuffled back on the far turn. In doing so, he showed plenty of grit, and that, combined with a pedigree that hints more distance will be right up his alley, inspires some confidence moving forward.

Geaux Rocket Ride was bred in Kentucky by Larry Best's OXO Equine, out of the the unplaced Uncle Mo mare Beyond Grace. He sold for $350,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Best purchased Beyond Grace for $1.5 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#7: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Angel of Empire all but assured a spot in the Derby starting gate with his win in the G2 Risen Star. He was a big price that day, but outside of a turf try at Kentucky Downs last fall, he hasn't run a bad race to date. His lone other defeat was a second to Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones when that one got loose on the lead, and a win going 1 1/8 miles isn't something most of these horses have on their resumes yet.

#8: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. The big question: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Hopefully, we'll get an answer sooner rather than later.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#9: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Much was made about the quality (or lack thereof) in the G3 Holy Bull, which Rocket Can won. However, he came back to run second behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth, and there's no shame in chasing last year's Champion 2-Year-Old Male home. Bill Mott knows how to develop a horse with experience and seasoning, so this one can't be counted out (especially since he likely already has enough points to make the Derby field).

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#10: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

I'd wager I have Raise Cain higher than many who author similar lists. It's true there are things to nitpick about his win in the G3 Gotham. However, I really liked that he overcame some adversity. He was stopped going around the far turn and had an excuse to spit the bit, but he resumed his rally and wound up romping by more than seven lengths. Raise Cain's record looks far better if you toss the clunker he ran over Turfway Park's synthetic surface, and I think there's plenty to intrigue those looking for bigger prices on the Derby trail.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#11: Dubyuhnell

Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)

Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Dubyuhnell ran a non-threatening eighth in the Sam F. Davis, but that effort looks like one you can draw a line through. Like several other runners in that race, he had a nightmarish trip, and the finish was a result of that rather than a regression or lack of ability. He's been working steadily at Palm Meadows for a few weeks now, and there's still time for him to get one more shot at Kentucky Derby points.

Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.

#12: Red Route One

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 33

Red Route One picked up another significant check when he rallied to finish second behind Confidence Game in the Rebel. He's still eligible for a first-level allowance race, but he's run enough big races in big spots to be fourth on the Derby leaderboard as of this writing. He doesn't appear to be quite as talented as Epicenter, who ran second for these connections one year ago, but he could give Steve Asmussen another shot at the Derby win that has, to this point, eluded him.

Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.

#13: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

One day after Litigate won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, stablemate Kingsbarns demolished a first-level allowance group by nearly eight lengths over the same surface. It was just his second lifetime start, he didn't make his career debut until Jan. 14 of this year, and he's worked just twice since that last-out runaway score. However, there's no denying his potential, and he'll almost certainly get a shot at a 100-point Kentucky Derby prep race in a few weeks.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#14: Sun Thunder

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owner: R.T. Racing, Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 24

Sun Thunder couldn't keep up with Arabian Knight two back in the Southwest, where he ran a distant fourth, but stepped forward to run a close-up second in the Risen Star. He broke last that day but put forth a big rally and was outkicked by only Angel of Empire. Another in-the-money finish likely puts him in the Derby starting gate, which would give McPeek a chance at the one Triple Crown race he has yet to win.

Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.

#15: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owner: OGMA Investments, Restropo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Like Geaux Rocket Ride, Mage was aggressively placed in a graded stakes race after a first-out maiden win, and he had an unlucky trip in the Fountain of Youth. He moved early (and wide) after a slow start, was between horses around the far turn, and couldn't keep up with Forte. An argument can be made he was second-best in that event, and I hope he gets another shot at Derby points in a few weeks.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#16: Skinner

Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)

Owner: C R K Stable

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 15

Skinner made a big middle move in the San Felipe before flattening out a bit to be third. It's possible he was asked for too much too early, and he didn't save much ground while making his move. A luckier trip next time out may very well get him the points he needs to make the Derby field, and he's got a pedigree that indicates more distance won't be an issue.

Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.

#17: Arctic Arrogance

Pedigree: Frosted – Modest Maven (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Chester and Mary Broman

Trainer: Linda Rice

Breeder: Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (NY)

Kentucky Derby points: 16

Arctic Arrogance has yet to finish out of the top two through six career starts. He set a pressured pace in the Withers and had little left when Hit Show came running, but he held second while well clear of the rest of that field. He missed the Gotham, which was unfortunate, but he's returned to the work tab and remains possible for next month's G2 Wood Memorial.

#18: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 23

Rivelli? I'll include Rivelli (yes, this will be a running gag for as long as this horse is in the mix). The Risen Star wasn't kind to horses near the front. Of the top six after six furlongs, only Two Phil's, who was third then and at the wire, finished in the top five. In finishing third, he beat some pretty accomplished horses, and that's enough to keep him (and the homages to the greatest horse racing commercial in media history) on this list.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#19: Reincarnate

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 15

One Tim Yakteen trainee leaves this list, but another comes on. Reincarnate wasn't eligible for Derby points when he won the G3 Sham, since he was still in the Bob Baffert barn at the time. However, he did get on the leaderboard when third in the Rebel despite a troubled trip. I'd argue his losing effort was more impressive than his winning one, and he'll have every chance to build on that in one of the final prep races on the calendar.

Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#20: Curly Jack

Pedigree: Good Magic – Connie and Michael (by Roman Ruler)

Owner: Michael McLoughlin

Trainer: Tom Amoss

Breeder: Breeder: Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 17

Returning to this list after a few defections, Curly Jack might have needed his one-paced run in the Risen Star. That was his first effort in a few months, and he had a very busy 2-year-old campaign that included a win in the G3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs. His likely next start comes in the Louisiana Derby, where a top-three finish would almost certainly be enough to ensure a return trip to Louisville.

Curly Jack was bred in Kentucky by the partnership of Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al., out of the Grade 1-placed Roman Ruler mare Connie and Michael, whose runners also include stakes-placed Fannie and Freddie. Curly Jack sold to owner Michael McLoughlin for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. 

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Sorting Out Key Departures And The Tampa Bay Derby appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

Three 50-point Kentucky Derby preps have come and gone. Last year's top 2-year-old came back with a vengeance in the Fountain of Youth, a Tim Yakteen trainee won the San Felipe (though perhaps not the one many thought would get the job done), and a big price came home in the Gotham.

Several efforts resulted in considerable changes to this list. However, the top remains unchanged, and for good reason. Let's get this week's Derby Bubble off to an unsurprising start…

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 90

It's impossible to start anywhere else. Forte was clearly the best 2-year-old of his class a season ago, and he never looked like a loser in Saturday's G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. Even scarier for his rivals is the fact that this was his first race since the Breeders' Cup, and an effort he may very well have needed. If there's further improvement in store between now and the first Saturday in May…yikes.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Arabian Knight

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Borealis Night (by Astrology)

Owner: Zedan Racing Stables

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Arabian Knight romped in two starts, including January's G3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park. That day's runner-up, Red Route One, came back to flatter this one a bit by running a close-up second to Confidence Game in the G2 Rebel. Arabian Knight may only have one chance to earn Kentucky Derby points, but it's likely he'll be a pretty heavy favorite in that outing, and for good reason.

Arabian Knight was bred in Kentucky by Corser Thoroughbreds, out of the unplaced Astrology mare Borealis Night. He sold to Scott and Evan Dilworth for $250,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was purchased by Zedan Racing Stables for $2.3 million at last year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Borealis Night, a product of the Stonestreet Farm breeding program, was purchased by Corser Thoroughbreds with Arabian Knight in utero for $285,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.

#3: Instant Coffee

Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Gold Square LLC

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 32

Instant Coffee rallied from last to first to win the G3 Lecomte, and he runs like a horse that will have no problem getting the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance. He also has a graded stakes win over the Churchill Downs surface, which came in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club. He's back on the work tab, which is great to see, and his next start will likely come in the G2 Louisiana Derby.

Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#4: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

A winner of three of four starts to date, Hit Show cruised home to win the G3 Withers at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. Last year's Withers produced an eventual Preakness winner in Early Voting, and this year's renewal might age well, too.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#5: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Practical Move was on this list when it kicked off last month, fell off last week, and returns with a vengeance. His win in the G2 San Felipe assures him of enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field, and it was his second straight graded stakes win on the SoCal circuit. If there's anything to nitpick, it's that he had a perfect trip Saturday at Santa Anita, but on the other hand, it was his tactical speed that got him into striking position in the first place.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#6: Litigate

Pedigree: Blame – Salsa Diavola (by Mineshaft)

Owner: Centennial Farms

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

Unlike many of his rivals in the G3 Sam F. Davis, Litigate sat a picture-perfect trip beneath Luis Saez. As a result, the Todd Pletcher trainee got the money and stamped himself as a Derby contender. He was certainly helped by others in the field having considerable traffic trouble, but he's lightly-raced and bred to improve with both distance and experience.

Litigate was bred in Kentucky by Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent, out of the unplaced Mineshaft mare Salsa Diavola. Centennial Farms purchased Litigate for $370,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Salsa Diavola was acquired privately after she was claimed for $12,500 out of a Woodbine maiden claiming race in November 2016.

#7: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Tapit Trice turned plenty of heads in his first start against winners. He aired by eight lengths against allowance foes at Gulfstream Park and ran the last furlong of the one-mile race in just over 12 seconds. He'll likely be a very heavy favorite in Saturday's G2 Tampa Bay Derby despite going up against 10 rivals, and anything close to that last-out effort would make this runner tough to beat.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#8: Geaux Rocket Ride

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Beyond Grace (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Pin Oak Stud

Trainer: Richard Mandella

Breeder: OXO Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

It spoke volumes that Richard Mandella opted to run Geaux Rocket Ride in the San Felipe off of a single prior outing. The colt rewarded his Hall of Fame conditioner with a strong second, one where he re-rallied after being shuffled back on the far turn. In doing so, he showed plenty of grit, and that, combined with a pedigree that hints more distance will be right up his alley, inspires some confidence moving forward.

Geaux Rocket Ride was bred in Kentucky by Larry Best's OXO Equine, out of the the unplaced Uncle Mo mare Beyond Grace. He sold for $350,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Best purchased Beyond Grace for $1.5 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#9: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Angel of Empire all but assured a spot in the Derby starting gate with his win in the G2 Risen Star. He was a big price that day, but outside of a turf try at Kentucky Downs last fall, he hasn't run a bad race to date. His lone other defeat was a second to Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones when that one got loose on the lead, and a win going 1 1/8 miles isn't something most of these horses have on their resumes yet.

#10: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. The big question: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Hopefully, we'll get an answer sooner rather than later.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#11: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Much was made about the quality (or lack thereof) in the G3 Holy Bull, which Rocket Can won. However, he came back to run second behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth, and there's no shame in chasing last year's champion 2-year-old male home. Bill Mott knows how to develop a horse with experience and seasoning, so this one can't be counted out (especially since he likely already has enough points to make the Derby field).

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#12: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

I'd wager I have Raise Cain higher than many who author similar lists. It's true there are things to nitpick about his win in the G3 Gotham. However, I really liked that he overcame some adversity. He was stopped going around the far turn and had an excuse to spit the bit, but he resumed his rally and wound up romping by more than seven lengths. Raise Cain's record looks far better if you toss the clunker he ran over Turfway Park's synthetic surface, and I think there's plenty to intrigue those looking for bigger prices on the Derby trail.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#13: Dubyuhnell

Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)

Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Dubyuhnell ran a non-threatening eighth in the Sam F. Davis, but that effort looks like one you can draw a line through. Like several other runners in that race, he had a nightmarish trip, and the finish was a result of that rather than a regression or lack of ability. Assuming he's bounced out of that race in good health, the G2 Remsen winner will almost certainly get another shot at Kentucky Derby points later this season.

Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.

#14: Red Route One

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 33

Red Route One picked up another significant check when he rallied to finish second behind Confidence Game in the Rebel. He's still eligible for a first-level allowance race, but he's run enough big races in big spots to be seventh on the Derby leaderboard as of this writing. He doesn't appear to be quite as talented as Epicenter, who ran second for these connections one year ago, but he could give Steve Asmussen another shot at the Derby win that has, to this point, eluded him.

Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.

#15: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

One day after Litigate won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, stablemate Kingsbarns demolished a first-level allowance group by nearly eight lengths over the same surface. It was just his second lifetime start, he didn't make his career debut until Jan. 14 of this year, and his first published work since that Tampa Bay win came last Friday. However, there's no denying his potential, and he'll almost certainly get a shot at a 100-point Kentucky Derby prep race in a few weeks.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#16: Sun Thunder

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owner: R.T. Racing, Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 24

Sun Thunder couldn't keep up with Arabian Knight two back in the Southwest, where he ran a distant fourth, but stepped forward to run a close-up second in the Risen Star. He broke last that day but put forth a big rally and was outkicked by only Angel of Empire. Another in-the-money finish likely puts him in the Derby starting gate, which would give McPeek a chance at the one Triple Crown race he has yet to win.

Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.

#17: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owner: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Like Geaux Rocket Ride, Mage was aggressively placed in a graded stakes race after a first-out maiden win, and he had an unlucky trip in the Fountain of Youth. He moved early (and wide) after a slow start, was between horses around the far turn, and couldn't keep up with Forte. An argument can be made he was second-best in that event, and I hope he gets another shot at Derby points in a few weeks.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#18: Skinner

Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)

Owner: C R K Stable

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 15

The final new addition to this list, Skinner made a big middle move in the San Felipe before flattening out a bit to be third. It's possible he was asked for too much too early, and he didn't save much ground while making his move. A luckier trip next time out may very well get him the points he needs to make the Derby field, and he's got a pedigree that indicates more distance won't be an issue.

Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.

#19: Arctic Arrogance

Pedigree: Frosted – Modest Maven (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Chester and Mary Broman

Trainer: Linda Rice

Breeder: Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (NY)

Kentucky Derby points: 16

Arctic Arrogance has yet to finish out of the top two through six career starts. He set a pressured pace in the Withers and had little left when Hit Show came running, but he held second while well clear of the rest of that field. He missed the Gotham, which was unfortunate, but he returned to the work tab Wednesday and remains possible for next month's G2 Wood Memorial.

#20: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 23

Rivelli? I'll include Rivelli (yes, this will be a running gag for as long as this horse is in the mix). The Risen Star wasn't kind to horses near the front. Of the top six after six furlongs, only Two Phil's, who was third then and at the wire, finished in the top five. In finishing third, he beat some pretty accomplished horses, and that's enough to keep him (and the homages to the greatest horse racing commercial in media history) on this list.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Forte’s Still Forte…Uh-Oh… appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

After a one-week break, the Derby Bubble is back uninterrupted until the first Saturday in May. Each week, I'll have a list of my top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders, and the list is prone to changing significantly from one week to another.

This particular one contains several seismic shifts. We saw longshots win both the G2 Risen Star and the G2 Rebel, and several of Bob Baffert's top Kentucky Derby contenders are now eligible to earn Derby points after being moved to different barns. Next week's could look very different, too, given the trio of preps on tap this weekend across the country.

Let's dive in, shall we?

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

It's impossible to start anywhere else. Forte was clearly the best 2-year-old of his class a season ago, when he won three straight Grade 1 races (including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile). He's been working steadily ahead of his return, which comes in Saturday's Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. If Forte has moved forward at all off of his Eclipse Award-winning campaign a season ago, the rest of this group has him to catch.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Arabian Knight

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Borealis Night (by Astrology)

Owner: Zedan Racing Stables

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

I mentioned two weeks ago that, had Arabian Knight been eligible to earn Derby points, he would not be lower than second. Now that he's able to do that, here he is. He's romped in two starts, including January's G3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park. That day's runner-up, Red Route One, came back to flatter this one a bit by running a close-up second in Saturday's Rebel. Arabian Knight may only have one chance to earn Kentucky Derby points, but it's likely he'll be a pretty heavy favorite in that outing.

Arabian Knight was bred in Kentucky by Corser Thoroughbreds, out of the unplaced Astrology mare Borealis Night. He sold to Scott and Evan Dilworth for $250,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was purchased by Zedan Racing Stables for $2.3 million at last year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Borealis Night, a product of the Stonestreet Farm breeding program, was purchased by Corser Thoroughbreds with Arabian Knight in utero for $285,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.

#3: Instant Coffee

Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Gold Square LLC

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 32

Instant Coffee rallied from last to first to win the G3 Lecomte, and he runs like a horse that will have no problem getting the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance. He also has a graded stakes win over the Churchill Downs surface, which came in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club. He's back on the work tab, which is great to see, and his next start will likely come in the G2 Louisiana Derby.

Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#4: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

A winner of three of four starts to date, Hit Show cruised home to win the G3 Withers at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. Last year's Withers produced an eventual Preakness winner in Early Voting, and this year's renewal might age well, too.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#5: Litigate

Pedigree: Blame – Salsa Diavola (by Mineshaft)

Owner: Centennial Farms

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

Unlike many of his rivals in the G3 Sam F. Davis, Litigate sat a picture-perfect trip beneath Luis Saez. As a result, the Todd Pletcher trainee got the money and stamped himself as a Derby contender. He was certainly helped by others in the field having considerable traffic trouble, but he's lightly-raced and bred to improve with both distance and experience.

Litigate was bred in Kentucky by Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent, out of the unplaced Mineshaft mare Salsa Diavola. Centennial Farms purchased Litigate for $370,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Salsa Diavola was acquired privately after she was claimed for $12,500 out of a Woodbine maiden claiming race in November 2016.

#6: Blazing Sevens

Pedigree: Good Magic – Trophy Girl (by Warrior's Reward)

Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing

Trainer: Chad Brown

Breeder: Tracy Farmer (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 16

Blazing Sevens didn't do a lot wrong during his 2-year-old season. He won one Grade 1 (the Champagne), finished third in another (the Hopeful), and ran fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after probably losing all chance at the start. He's been working steadily at Payson Park ahead of his 3-year-old debut, but that doesn't come in an easy spot. He'll tackle Forte (and several other prominent 3-year-olds) in the Fountain of Youth.

Blazing Sevens was bred in Kentucky by Tracy Farmer, out of the winning Warrior's Reward mare Trophy Girl. After bringing $140,000 as a newly-turned yearling at the 2021 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, Blazing Sevens sold for $250,000 that summer at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale. Farmer acquired Trophy Girl as a weanling for $62,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#7: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Tapit Trice turned plenty of heads in his first start against winners. He aired by eight lengths against allowance foes at Gulfstream Park and ran the last furlong of the one-mile race in just over 12 seconds. His next start will almost certainly come against much stiffer competition, but if anyone can move a 3-year-old ahead in a hurry, it's Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#8: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

New to this list, Angel of Empire all but assured a spot in the Derby starting gate with his win in the Risen Star. He was a big price that day, but outside of a turf try at Kentucky Downs last fall, he hasn't run a bad race to date. His lone other defeat was a second to Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones when that one got loose on the lead, and a win going 1 1/8 miles isn't something most of these horses have on their resumes yet.

#9: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Confidence Game tops the Derby leaderboard after his win in the Rebel, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. The big question: Was it early-season development that moved him forward Saturday, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Hopefully, we'll get an answer sooner rather than later.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#10: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

Much was made about the quality (or lack thereof) in the G3 Holy Bull. Speed figures weren't kind to it, either, but Rocket Can did win while racing wide the whole way around the Gulfstream Park oval. Bill Mott's runners usually improve with experience, too, so while that prep was on the slow side, there may still be plenty to like here. We'll know more after the Fountain of Youth, which represents a much stiffer class test.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#11: Dubyuhnell

Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)

Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Dubyuhnell ran a non-threatening eighth in the Sam F. Davis, but that effort looks like one you can draw a line through. Like several other runners in that race, he had a nightmarish trip, and the finish was a result of that rather than a regression or lack of ability. Assuming he's bounced out of that race in good health, the G2 Remsen winner will almost certainly get another shot at Kentucky Derby points later this season.

Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.

#12: Red Route One

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 33

Red Route One picked up another significant check on Saturday, when he rallied to finish second behind Confidence Game in the Rebel. He's still eligible for a first-level allowance race, but he's run enough big races in big spots to be fourth on the Derby leaderboard as of this writing. He doesn't appear to be quite as talented as Epicenter, who ran second for these connections one year ago, but he could give Steve Asmussen another shot at the Derby win that has, to this point, eluded him.

Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.

#13: National Treasure

Pedigree: Quality Road – Treasure (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Like the horse immediately ahead of him on this list, National Treasure is still eligible for a first-level allowance, but he's put forth big efforts in big races. He was second to Cave Rock in the G1 American Pharoah and third behind Forte in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and I think his effort in the G3 Sham was fine. He got caught in some traffic that day and has every right to improve in Saturday's G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita.

National Treasure was bred in Kentucky by Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Treasure. He was purchased by the SF/Starlight/Madaket group for $500,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale. Treasure raced as a homebred for Blum, joining second dam Proposal, third dam Lady of Choice, fourth dam Chosen Lady, and fifth dam Mine Only as products of Blum's breeding program.

#14: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

One day after Litigate won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, stablemate Kingsbarns demolished a first-level allowance group by nearly eight lengths over the same surface. It was just his second lifetime start, and he didn't make his career debut until Jan. 14 of this year. However, while time isn't necessarily on his side (he may only have a chance at one Kentucky Derby prep race), there's no denying this regally-bred colt's potential.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#15: Lugan Knight

Pedigree: Goldencents – Sly Roxy (by Speightstown)

Owner: BG Stables

Trainer: Michael McCarthy

Breeder: BG Stables (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Lugan Knight made the lead in the Jerome, and things looked dicey when Arctic Arrogance ranged up alongside him turning for home. However, this colt found more beneath Dylan Davis and fended off a runner that came back to run second in the Withers. Lugan Knight returns in Saturday's G3 Gotham, and he'll have his work cut out for him. He's part of a full field that could number as many as 14 horses.

Lugan Knight was bred in Kentucky by BG Stables, out of the winning Speightstown mare Sly Roxy. His second dam is two-time Canadian champion Roxy Gap.

#16: Sun Thunder

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owner: R.T. Racing, Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 24

Sun Thunder couldn't keep up with Arabian Knight two back in the Southwest, where he ran a distant fourth, but stepped forward to run a close-up second in the Risen Star. He broke last that day but put forth a big rally and was outkicked by only Angel of Empire. Another in-the-money finish likely puts him in the Derby starting gate, which would give McPeek a chance at the one Triple Crown race he has yet to win.

Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.

#17: Arctic Arrogance

Pedigree: Frosted – Modest Maven (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Chester and Mary Broman

Trainer: Linda Rice

Breeder: Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (NY)

Kentucky Derby points: 16

Arctic Arrogance has yet to finish out of the top two through six career starts. He set a pressured pace in the Withers and had little left when Hit Show came running, but he held second while well clear of the rest of that field. He also ran second in both the Remsen (behind Dubyuhnell) and the Jerome (behind Lugan Knight). He'll miss Saturday's Gotham, however, due to an illness.

#18: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 23

Rivelli? I'll include Rivelli (yes, this will be a running gag for as long as this horse is in the mix). The Risen Star wasn't kind to horses near the front. Of the top six after six furlongs, only Two Phil's, who was third then and at the wire, finished in the top five. In finishing third, he beat some pretty accomplished horses, and that's enough to keep him (and the homages to the greatest horse racing commercial in media history) on this list.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#19: Curly Jack

Pedigree: Good Magic – Connie and Michael (by Roman Ruler)

Owner: Michael McLoughlin

Trainer: Tom Amoss

Breeder: Breeder: Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 17

Curly Jack stays on this list (albeit barely) despite a one-paced sixth in the Risen Star. I don't think he had the best of trips that day, and he's shown too much at Churchill Downs to dismiss should he make the Derby field. He won the G3 Iroquois, was second in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, and has a right to improve off of his 2023 debut (which doubled as his first start in nearly three months).

Curly Jack was bred in Kentucky by the partnership of Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al., out of the Grade 1-placed Roman Ruler mare Connie and Michael, whose runners also include stakes-placed Fannie and Freddie. Curly Jack sold to owner Michael McLoughlin for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. 

#20: Cyclone Mischief

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere (by Bernardini)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables, Castleton Lyons

Trainer: Dale Romans

Breeder: Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Dale Romans was very high on Cyclone Mischief earlier this year, and for good reason. His January allowance win, where he drubbed next-out Sam F. Davis winner Litigate by nearly six lengths, was outstanding. However, he was a non-threatening seventh as the 6/5 favorite in the Holy Bull. He makes for a fascinating study in Saturday's Fountain of Youth. If you like him, he'll be a price, but the waters are considerably deeper. Either way, we should know far more about him after that event.

Cyclone Mischief was bred in Kentucky by Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate, out of the unplaced Bernardini mare Areyoucominghere. He sold to Albaugh Family Stables for $450,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Areyoucominghere was purchased by Castleton Lyons, pregnant to Into Mischief, for $350,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Where Do The Baffert/Yakteen Horses Slot In? appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post