Also threatening to make the top 10 by year's end are Coolmore America's Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) in 11th, Mill Ridge's Oscar Performance (Kitten's Joy) in 15th, and Lane's End's City of Light (Quality Road) in 16th.

To put this in perspective, consider that among freshman sires in 2014 only Lane's End's Quality Road (seventh) and WinStar's Super Saver (ninth) made the top 10 list; in 2015, Coolmore America's Uncle Mo (first) was the sole first-crop representative; in 2016, there was only Darby Dan's Dialed In (ninth); in 2017, the two freshmen were WinStar's Overanalyze (ninth) and Hill 'n' Dale's Violence (10th); in 2018, only Spendthrift's duo of Cross Traffic (fourth) and Goldencents (10th) made the cut; in 2019, Coolmore America's American Pharoah (second), WinStar's Constitution (fourth), and Three Chimneys's Palace Malice (eighth) made it three for the young guns; in 2020, another trio made the list, with Darley's Nyquist (third) topping Sequel/WinStar's Laoban (fifth) and Taylor Made's Not This Time (sixth).

Last year, four freshman sires made the top 10: Three Chimneys's Gun Runner (first), Coolmore America's Practical Joke (third), Lane's End's Connect (fifth), and Coolmore America's Classic Empire (10th).

The trend is obvious, isn't it? More freshman sires are flexing their way into the top 10 this year than before, and it's not like they were uniformly the recipients of the best mares. At an opening stud fee of $150,000, Triple Crown winner Justify was getting that quality of mare, but horses like Girvin, who started off for $7,500 at Ocala Stud in Florida; Sharp Azteca at $10,000; and Army Mule at $10,000 were not.

Bolt d'Oro ($25,000), Good Magic ($35,000), Mendelssohn ($35,000), Oscar Performance ($20,000) and City of Light ($35,000) were priced to compete with one another in 2019, but they were cheaper than a number of proven sires not in the top 20 to date, such as Tapit ($225,000), Speightstown ($80,000), More Than Ready ($80,000), Ghostzapper ($85,000), Candy Ride (Arg) ($80,000), Curlin ($175,000), and Quality Road ($150,000), to name a few.

The five Breeders' Cup juvenile races will play a pivotal role in deciding where these freshmen end up when all is said and done, but several have live contenders, including the three just outside the top 10.

For first-crop sire watchers, it's going to be an interesting Breeders' Cup.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Among freshmen, Good Magic, a champion 2-year-old, holds a strong pair for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile with Breeders' Cup Challenge winner Blazing Sevens, who won the Gl Champagne S. at Belmont-at-Aqueduct, and Curly Jack, winner of the Glll Iroquois S. at Churchill. So far, Good Magic is the sire of 17 winners and three black-type winners–each of them at graded level. Only Justify has as many graded/group winners, but no freshman except for Good Magic has sired a Grade l winner so far.

Justify, who didn't race at two, has a contender in Verifying, who was second to Blazing Sevens in the Champagne, and he leads all freshman sires with four black-type winners. He's represented by 20 winners overall.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

City of Light has a good chance in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies with Chop Chop, who lost the Gl Darley Alcibiades S. at Keeneland by a nose. She's one of three black-type winners for City of Light from eight winners so far.

Good Magic's Gll Sorrento S. winner at Del Mar, Vegas Magic, was most recently fourth in the Gl Del Mar Debutante, but she has points and has been training forwardly.

Justify's Just Cindy, winner of the Glll Schuylerville S. at Saratoga in July, has since been defeated in both the Gl Spinaway at Saratoga and the Alcibiades, but his daughter Justique, most recently third in the Gll Chandelier S. at Santa Anita, may be a possibility for the race.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Mendelssohn's Delight won the Gll J.P. Morgan Chase Jessamine S. at Keeneland, a Breeders' Cup Challenge race, by five lengths with her ears pricked and looks a strong contender for the North American contingent. She's her sire's lone black-type winner from 17 winners overall.

Oscar Performance's G Laurie has points for the race as well. She was third in the Gl Natalma S. at Woodbine with a troubled trip and is one of 11 winners for Oscar Performance, who is represented by one black-type winner to date–the Grade ll-winning colt Andthewinneris.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Andthewinneris won the Gll Bourbon S. at Keeneland, a Breeders' Cup Challenge race, leading a one-two finish for Oscar Performance with Deer District in second. Not only that, Oscar Performance also has Lachaise, who was third in the Gll Pilgrim S. at Belmont-at-Aqueduct, with points for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

Bolt d'Oro also has a couple of contenders. His Major Dude won the aforementioned Pilgrim, a Challenge race, and Boppy O won the Glll With Anticipation S. at Saratoga. They are two of four black-type winners for Bolt d'Oro, who is represented by 19 winners.

City of Light's Battle of Normandy, second in the With Anticipation, also has points for the race, as does freshman sire Cloud Computing (Maclean's Music) with I'm Very Busy, second in the Pilgrim. Cloud Computing doesn't have a black-type winner yet, but he's represented by eight winners.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

Sharp Azteca's undefeated Iowa-bred Tyler's Tribe has been penciled in for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He's never raced over turf, but he's registered some sparkling Beyer Speed Figures in dirt sprints, and his sire has been represented by some turf winners. Tyler's Tribe is one of three black-type winners for Sharp Azteca, who has 23 winners. One of them is Sharp Aza Tack, who won the Listed Tyro S. at Monmouth over five furlongs on turf by 7 1/4 lengths, and he could be a possibility for this race as well. He last worked five furlongs over Keeneland's all-weather training track in 1:00.20 Saturday.

City of Light's Gaslight Dancer, who was second by a neck in the six-furlong Glll Futurity S. at Belmont-at-Aqueduct on turf, also has points for the race.

A Takeaway

The freshman sires competing to make this list are doing so not only against others with first crops, but also against established sires. They are also fighting to make themselves relevant for next year, because in the commercial marketplace that now exists, a poor showing this year will mean fewer mares to cover next spring. It's paramount, therefore, that they get some graded winners or a Grade l winner among their first 2-year-olds, and it's for this reason that stud farms front load their books as much as they can with more quality than most will see again unless they are successful.

One result of this is that a stallion's second, third and fourth books usually tend to yield less quality than the first, and yearling buyers, aware of this phenomenon, tend to pay more for first-crop yearlings.

Moreover, even those stallions that end up in the top 10 this year aren't necessarily guaranteed to succeed, unless their first 3-year-olds continue to win next year. Note that in 2017, Overanalyze was ninth on this list but is no longer in Kentucky, while Violence, who was 10th the same year, has continued to make a mark and is represented by Forte, the leading 2-year-old in the East this year.

Some excellent stallions have also emerged from a prominent spot as freshmen on this list over the years. In 2014, it was Quality Road; in 2015, Uncle Mo; in 2019, American Pharoah and Constitution; in 2020, Not This Time; and last year, Gun Runner.

   Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Tuesday's session gets underway at noon with Hips 1-185 and is followed by the supplements, which are Hips 186-209. Wednesday's session begins at 10 a.m. with Hips 251-660 and followed by a section of supplements, which are Hips 661-684.

“We are certainly excited seeing what has transpired in the yearling market so far this year,” said OBS's Tod Wojciechowski. “The graduates of this sale have been doing very well lately both at the racetrack and at the next level of the market.”

During last year's selected yearlings portion, 104 head sold for $4,539,000 with an average of $43,644 and a median of $32,000. That session was topped by a $170,000 colt by Midnight Storm.

A total of 281 yearlings sold during the open session in 2021 for a gross of $5,224,500 with an average of $18,593 and median of $15,000. The topper during that session was a $170,000 Ransom the Moon colt.

In total, 385 yearlings summoned $9,763,500 at last year's October Sale with an average of $25,360 and median of $19,000. Both of the aforementioned session/co-sale toppers were sold by Lisa McGreevy's Abbie Road Farm.

Recent noteworthy graduates of the OBS October Sale include Friday's GII J.P. Morgan Chase Jessamine S. winner Delight (Mendelssohn), GI Santa Anita Oaks winner Desert Dawn (Cupid) and MSW Outfoxed (Valiant Minister).

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The highlight of the day will be the GI Darley Alcibiades S., a qualifier for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Ken McPeek and Brad Cox have taken turns the last few years, each winning two of the last four, and McPeek has the morning-line favorite in last-out GIII Pocahontas S. winner Fun and Feisty (Midshipman).

McPeek also saddles longshot Stellar Lady (Shackleford), who broke her maiden on grass last out at Kentucky Downs Sept. 8. The aforementioned Cox also saddles a grass filly in unbeaten Chop Chop (City of Light), who enters off a win in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies S. Sept. 3.

DJ Stable's Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief) will likely challenge Fun and Feisty for favoritism. Opening her account with a pair of wins including a dominant score in Churchill's Debutante S. in July, the dark bay checked in second in Saratoga's GI Spinaway S. Sept. 4.

Chad Brown sends out one worth a look at a price in Alpha Delta Stables homebred Raging Sea (Curlin). She rallied to victory in her debut going seven panels at Saratoga Aug. 7. Both her running style and her pedigree suggest she will only improve with more distance.

Juvenile grass fillies get their chance to secure a spot in the Breeders' Cup starting gate one race earlier in the GII J.P. Morgan Chase Jessamine S. Chop Chop would have been favored in this event, but now that will likely go to Towhead (Malibu Moon), who came up a nose short of that foe in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies S.

Jonathan Thomas saddles a live on in Augustin Stable's Delight (Mendelssohn). The $400,000 OBSMAR buy earned her diploma at Delaware last out Aug. 27 after a pair of thirds in her first two tries.

G. Watts Humphrey's Bling (American Pharoah) took a huge step forward when switched from dirt to turf in her second start at Ellis Aug. 20, earning her diploma by 3 3/4 lengths.

Also worth a look at what is sure to be a juicy price for bettors is NY-bred Recognize (Bolt d'Oro). Her freshman sire now has two graded winners on turf and her Hall of Fame conditioner Bill Mott is known for his patience and ability to get horses to peak at the right time. The bay graduated by 5 1/4 lengths at third asking against fellow Empire-breds at Saratoga in Aug. 18 and checked in third after setting the pace in that venue's P.G. Johnson S. Sept. 1.

Rounding out Friday's Breeders' Cup qualifiers is the GII Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix S. for male sprinters. With champion Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music) and Cody's Wish (Curlin), who defeated the divisional leader in the GI Forego S., waiting for the first weekend in November, this event lacks star power. However, the horse who may be improving at just the right time is Sibelius (Not This Time), who enters off a pair of strong victories and triple-digit Beyers, including the Lite the Fuse S. at Pimlico Sept. 10, for which he warned a 106 Beyer Speed Figure.

Special Reserve (Midshipman) captured this event last year, but could only manage fourth in the Breeders' Cup. Off the board in his seasonal debut in the DeFrancis Memorial Dash July 16, he wired the Senator Robert C. Byrd Memorial S. in the slop at Mountaineer last out Aug. 6.

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TUESDAY'S INSIGHTS: Well-Related Goldencents Firster Right To the Races
3rd-Parx Racing, $47,208, Msw, 4-26, 2yo, 2f, :23.27, ft, 1 length.
FERRARI KID (c, 2, Goldencents–Catch the Flag, by A.P. Indy) won this baby sprint at first asking, but that might not be the biggest update to his pedigree in the next week as his half-sister produced 'TDN Rising Star' Messier (Empire Maker), who is set to break from post six in Saturday's GI Kentucky Derby. Ferrari Kid was a $100,000 buy at OBS March by Richard Malouf after working in :21 1/5. Trained by Scott Lake for this Quarter Horse-like debut, the bay shot to the lead to win by a driving length under a vigorous ride. His unraced dam is out of Canadian champion Catch the Ring (Seeking the Gold). Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

FRIDAY'S INSIGHTS: U S Navy Flag Filly Debuts for Ward & Stonestreet Stables
2nd-Keeneland, $51,276, Msw, 4-29, 2yo, f, 5 1/2fT, 1:02.33, fm, 9 3/4 lengths.
Debuts don't come much more impressively than the unveiling of LOVE REIGNS (IRE) (f, 2, U S Navy Flag–Humble And Proud {Ire}, by Pivotal {GB}), who motored to the front and dared the others to catch her. With an efficient stride that hinted at the ability to do much more if asked, the bay–the third winner for her MG1SW freshman sire (by War Front)–was a no-brainer 'TDN Rising Star' after posting a 9 3/4-length victory. A half to 2018 GI Sword Dancer S. winner Glorious Empire (Ire) (Holy Roman Emperor {Ire}), the winner was a €160,000 Goffs Orby purchase for Stonestreet. Love Reigns topped an Irish-bred, Wesley Ward-trained exacta, as his Rivka (Ire) (No Nay Never) was the runner-up. In third was Delight (Mendelssohn), who closed from last to overcome a rough and intimidating trip for the show. The Jonathan Thomas pupil was a $400,000 OBS March purchase by Augustin Stable after a :10 1/5 work. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

5th-Keeneland, $100,000, Msw, 4-29, 3yo, 6 1/2f, 1:17.93, ft, 1 1/2 lengths.
DOMINICAN PIONEER (c, 3, Pioneerof the Nile–Heatherdoesntbluff, by Old Trieste) donned cap and gown to become the third consecutive 'Insighted' horse to win. Always part of the early fray, the dark bay took command at the sixteenth pole and pulled clear late to win with authority. The R T Racing Stable colorbearer helped push trainer Wesley Ward to his sixth Keeneland Spring Meet title. The winner, a $325,000 Keeneland September purchase, is a half to GISW Killer Graces (Congaree) and to MGSW Chocolate Ride (Candy Ride {Arg}). Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

SUNDAY'S INSIGHTS: Seven-Figure Shadwell Buy Debuts
4th-Belmont, $90,000, Msw, 5-1, 3yo/up, f/m, 1 1/16mT, 1:42.51, fm, neck.
Christophe Clement's CANISY (f, 3, Point of Entry–Soother, by Rahy) played spoiler to featured Contemporary Art (Dubawi {Ire}) and Sahlabiya (Medaglia d'Oro). The trio of debuters all raced closely together in midpack, took varying paths to the front, and emerged from the fray with only each other as valid threats. In the end, it was Canisy by a neck over Contemporary Art, who had a neck on Sahlabiya. The winner campaigns for Blue Devil Racing Stable and is a half to MSW, GSP, and Saratoga course record setter Carotari (Artie Schiller). The runner-up is a Bobby Flay homebred and the first foal out of GSW and $1.6-million Fasig-Tipton November purchase Cover Song (Fastnet Rock {Aus}). The mare is out of European champion Misty For Me (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), making her a half to European champion U S Navy Flag (War Front), sire of the above-mentioned 'TDN Rising Star' Love Reigns, and to British MG1SW and 'TDN Rising Star' Roly Poly (War Front). Trifecta bookend Sahlabiya was a $1.6-million purchase at Keeneland September for Shadwell Stable. Half-brother and 'TDN Rising Star' Sergei Prokofiev (Scat Daddy) brought $1.1 million at the same sale three years earlier and is a graded winner in England. The top three all ran extremely well on debut against a more seasoned field, proved they were each up for a fight, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see any or all of them do bigger things down the line. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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2nd-KEE, $80K, MSW, 2yo, f, 5 1/2fT, 1:01 p.m.
  Trainer Wesley Ward brings 2-year-old LOVE REIGNS (IRE) to Keeneland on Friday for owners Stonestreet Stables LLC. The daughter of U S Navy Flag is out of the unraced Pivotal (GB) mare Humble And Proud (Ire) making her a half-sister to GISW & near-millionaire Glorious Empire (Holy Roman Emperor {Ire}). Humble And Proud is herself a half-sister to several graded stakes performers including Delsarte (Theatrical {Ire}) who was second in the G2 King Edward VII S. and Veenwouden (GB) (Desert Prince {Ire}) who finished third in the G3 Jockey Club Cup. Love Reigns has posted four works including three furlongs from the gate on the dirt at Keeneland Apr. 13 in :35 2/5 (4/20). Trainer Wesley Ward, already having an outstanding meet, has tabbed veteran jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. for the ride.

Also starting Friday for trainer Jonathan Thomas and owner Augustin Stable is Delight, a chestnut daughter of Mendelssohn who made $400,000 when purchased from the 2022 OBS March Sale (:10.1) after previously bringing $90,000 at the OBS October Yearling Sale and being a $105,000 RNA at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. TJCIS PPs 

5th-KEE, $100K, MSW, 3yo, 6 1/2f, 2:34 p.m.
   DOMINICAN PIONEER (Pioneerof the Nile), also making his first start Friday for trainer Wesley Ward, is a dark bay son of Heatherdoesntbluff (Old Trieste), making him a half-brother to Killer Graces (Congaree), who won the GI Hollywood Starlet S. and was second in the GII Santa Ysabel S. as well as Chocolate Ride (Candy Ride {Arg}), winner of the GII Mervin H. Muniz Jr. H. Purchased for $325,000 from the 2020 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, Dominican Pioneer recently worked five furlongs from the gate Apr. 13 in :59 1/5 (2/16). He gets jockey John Velazquez aboard for his debut. TJCIS PPs

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