It also turns a spotlight onto a world largely hidden from the public eye-one that industry leaders are generally loathe to discuss publicly, and in which just a few anonymous gamblers can have an outsized impact on the financial fitness or ill-health of the sport.

Last year, Del Mar continued a deal with a player identified as Elite 17 that saw them enjoy a noticeably more favorable rate of play than other high-volume players that wager through the CAW platform, Elite Turf Club, according to detailed wagering reports obtained by the TDN, background conversations with racing officials and figures within the CAW world, along with publicly available data.

At the enormous volumes CAW gamblers play, such deals can give individual players a significant financial edge.

The result was that this one player constituted nearly 47% of Elite Turf Club's total handle on Del Mar last year, according to the reports. Two years prior, Elite 17's play had constituted just over 36% of Elite Turf Club's total handle on Del Mar, according to publicly available California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) data.

At the same time, the amount of money another Elite Turf Club player (Elite 2) wagered on the track dropped off by over $32 million between 2021 and 2023, the reports show-from around $45 million in 2021 to around $13 million last year. In 2021, Elite 2's play came to just over 27% of Elite Turf Club's total handle on Del Mar. Last year, that number had dropped to around 12%.

According to multiple sources familiar with the situation, Elite 2 received a deal similar to Elite 17 in prior years at Del Mar, but not last year.

An individual familiar with the situation-who spoke as a “California racing source” on condition of anonymity-said that, prior to the track's 2023 summer meet, Elite 2 declined such a deal, which would have necessitated paying a “substantial seven-figure up-front payment.”

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club | Horsephotos

When asked if Elite 2 had changed their mind about the deal after the summer meet was underway, the source declined to answer, citing concerns about proprietary business information. “But you can't make an up-front payment after the meet has started,” the source added.

Such arrangements have served as a pre-payment on host fees to be split between the track and the purse account, sources say.

The deals that Del Mar has struck with Elite Turf Club players over the years, while hardly an anomaly among tracks nationally, nonetheless raises questions about the best approach to managing CAW play in a state where purse revenues are generated solely through betting. If purses fuel the sport, getting this equation right is an imperative.

Are deals between tracks and individual CAW players, therefore, a sustainable approach for growing the sport in California? Is CAW play now so vital to the economics of horse racing that every step must be taken to maximize their business? Or should California's tracks be much more focused on incentivizing play from the average punters who generally contribute the biggest slice to purses, rather than pandering to the whales of the betting seas?

While it's difficult to know exactly how such deals might have impacted Del Mar's purse account revenues, the bare numbers illustrate a track facing tough economic headwinds, with serious implications for the horsemen and women in the state.

Purses last fall at Del Mar were reduced by over 10% due to a purse account overpayment reportedly to the tune of $2.1 million. All-source handle at the track's flagship summer meet declined nearly 11% from 2022 to 2023, according to the DRF. Wagering through Elite Turf Club on the track's product has declined from around $167 million in 2021 to around $113 million last year, according to the CHRB.

“As a track with no subsidies from alternative forms of gaming that depends exclusively on handle for purse generation, promoting handle from all segments of the betting market is very important to us. On an annual basis we sit down with the [Thoroughbred Owners of California] TOC to both establish purse levels and to discuss how we best promote wagering on our simulcast signal,” wrote Del Mar Thoroughbred Club president, Josh Rubinstein, in response to a series of questions.

Before the start of each meet in California, the tracks present the TOC with a list of individual host fees charged to each location that receives its simulcast signal. For that track's meet to proceed, the TOC must first sign this document.

“We are proud of our racing product, which has been well-received for the last several years, and confident that our host fees are fair and competitive with other major race tracks. We will continue to work with our partners to balance pricing considerations with the overall demands of the wagering markets,” Rubinstein added.

How takeout is divided from CAW play

BACKGROUND ON RATES AND REBATES
The debate around CAW players typically surrounds the major edge they wield over regular gamblers thanks to their use of sophisticated wagering technologies and the attractive rates and rebates offered to them-inducements not available to the average punter.

When “rates” are mentioned, what is meant are “host fees.” This is a charge wagering outlets pay to track operators for the contractual right to import a simulcast signal. A wagering outlet could be another racetrack, an ADW platform (like FanDuel), or a CAW platform (like Elite Turf Club).

Experts say that CAW host fees for the premium tracks typically vary between 6% and 8%. After breeders' premiums and other minor deductions have been removed, host fees are roughly split 50/50 between the track and the purse account in California.

The entities that pay the lowest host fee, therefore-like CAW players-contribute the lowest per-dollar amount to purses. At the same time, proponents of CAW argue how these inducements are warranted due to the vast amounts these players inject into the betting pools.

The amount CAW players are “rebated” can be broadly calculated with this simple equation:

Rebate = Takeout minus host fee (plus any other associated minor fees). The smaller the host fee and the larger the takeout, then the bigger the rebate.

Let's use the 20% blended takeout rate among the pools. And let's say the host fee (plus other associated fees) that the CAW player pays comes to 7%.

The rebated discount for the CAW players, therefore, could be a maximum 13% on every dollar wagered.

Experts recently told the TDN that the most successful CAW players can consistently win at an average rate of around 92%. At that win rate, a 13% rebate (for example) would see the player enjoy a 5% profit margin.

According to wagering reports reviewed by the TDN, that win rate is an undercount. These reports show how Elite Turf Club players can win at an average rate in excess of 105%, even before their rebate from Elite is factored in. At this rate, the profit margin would be much better than many investment accounts.

It's also important to note how the numerical monikers given to Elite Turf Club players-a company majority owned by The Stronach Group (TSG)-don't relate to just one person.

These players employ a team of potentially dozens of people, including mathematical wizards who create sophisticated computer algorithms capable of analyzing the betting markets for exploitable weaknesses, as well as individuals who place the bets for them.

Insiders consulted for this story describe how these teams of experts can, over time, deduce through the betting markets and through other data sources if rival CAW players receive more favorable rates.

Given the money at stake, the competition can be cutthroat.

ELITE 17'S DEAL
As CAW play has grown exponentially in recent years, track operators have cut deals like that between Del Mar and Elite 17 to attract their business. And the amount these gamblers wager is often so huge, just one player can make up a significant portion of a track's overall handle.

In 2019, when the renowned gambler “Dr. Nick” stopped wagering on Australian racing reportedly due to increased taxes on bookmakers, his exit was projected to trigger a 6% drop in turnover on racing across the board.

Multiple sources for this story said that Elite 17 and Elite 2 were both well-known Australian gamblers.

Scott Daruty | Horsephotos

Scott Daruty, president of both TSG's Monarch Content Management and of the Elite Turf Club, declined to confirm or deny their identities, citing confidentiality agreements.

According to detailed reports obtained by the TDN, Elite 17 wagered more than $650 million on U.S. racing through Elite Turf Club alone last year. In 2021, Elite 17 wagered roughly $60 million on Del Mar's product, according to the CHRB. Last year, Elite 17 wagered some $53 million. Last summer at Del Mar, the amount Elite 17 wagered was roughly 10% of the total handle at Del Mar, using the DRF's all-source handle figures as a baseline.

These numbers don't account for Elite 17's potential play on horse racing through other methods such as fixed-odds providers and exchange options like Betfair in other countries, or on other sports. Some CAW players also have accounts with different CAW platforms like Velocity, owned by Churchill Downs, which enables wagering on tracks whose simulcast signals are managed by Churchill.

At the same time, multiple sources say individual deals are still fairly prevalent among smaller tracks struggling financially, but that they're now unusual among the nation's top-tier tracks.

According to wagering reports reviewed by the TDN, the New York Racing Association (NYRA) offered the same host fee to Elite Turf Club players at Saratoga last year, irrespective of the betting pool. This included Elite 17. The host fee NYRA charged was slightly lower than Del Mar charged the same CAW players (outside of Elite 17), these reports show.

“NYRA cannot responsibly comment or opine on information never provided to our organization,” wrote NYRA spokesperson, Pat McKenna, in response to questions about the wagering reports. The TDN provided to NYRA an overview of the figures in the reports but not the raw data. NYRA's data was independently verified for the TDN. NYRA is a minority owner in Elite Turf Club.

McKenna did, however, stress the steps the organization has taken to manage CAW play, including barring CAW play in the Pick 6, Late Pick 5, and Cross Country Pick 5 pools, and requiring CAW players to place win bets on its races no later than two minutes to post.

California has also taken similar steps to moderate CAW play.

Since Santa Anita's 2022 fall meet, the win pool has been closed to CAW players one-minute to post, or else they must also pay a surcharge of around 3.5% on top of their normal rate if they want to bet to the close of the win-pool. Last year, Del Mar followed suit. Both tracks have also reverted to the traditional Pick 6.

When it comes to Del Mar's deal with Elite 17, the agreement was incumbent upon the player making a substantial payment at the start of the meet, according to multiple sources. Once that up-front payment was made, Elite 17 paid a host fee almost half of that for other Elite Turf Club players, wagering reports show.

But multiple sources familiar with the situation explained how factoring in the up-front payment, Elite 17 paid a host fee on Del Mar's product last year around a percentage point or so lower than the other CAW players.

At the volume CAW gamblers play, just one percentage point difference in host fee can mean a significant edge for one CAW player over all others, along with possible residual effects on all other participants in the betting pools in terms of late odds movement.

Bill Nader | Horsephotos

TOC president and CEO Bill Nader explained that deals involving up-front payments incentivize the player to maximize the amount they wager on the track's product.

“For example, if the player bets over a certain threshold, the player benefits from a high-volume discount. If the player does not reach that wagering threshold, the effective rate would be higher than other CAW players,” wrote Nader.

But could the deal that Del Mar struck with Elite 17 have prompted other CAW players-and Elite 2 in particular-to have curbed their play at the track last year?

The California racing source said that other CAW players were offered similar terms to Elite 17 last year. However, it should be noted that the other CAW players that wager through Elite Turf Club on Del Mar didn't bet to nearly the same volume as Elite 17 last year, and that Elite 2 was the only Elite Turf Club player to wager in the region of Elite 17's handle in 2021.

The California racing source also noted how CAW play is closely aligned with overall handle on a track's product, and that declines in total handle would invariably lead to decreases in CAW play.

“It's hard for us to say with any certainty why player A or B may have reduced his or her volume of play,” the source said. “The best source for that is the player themself.”

The TDN reached out to a representative of the player believed to be Elite 2, who declined to discuss the situation.

Here, it should be noted that at least one Elite Turf Club player increased their play between 2021 and 2023. This was Elite 10, who wagered $4.9 million in 2021 and $6.7 million in 2023 on Del Mar's product.

The TDN does not have access to data showing individual CAW handle on Del Mar's product in 2022. That was the year the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) stopped making such data publicly available. Even so, California remains more transparent than other jurisdictions about what CAW data it makes publicly available.

Another wrinkle in this story is how Del Mar boasts an attractive wagering product with good field sizes and an impressive safety record. With that in mind, was the deal the right one to strike?

“With the benefit of hindsight, it has been the wrong deal for over 10 years and this is why we need a market correction,” wrote Nader, in response to a series of questions. “We represent the owners and purses are paid to owners, trainers, and jockeys, and there is room for improvement. This is what the TOC hired me to do.”

When asked why the TOC approved the deal last year, Nader wrote how 2023 “was my first full year with the TOC and we needed time to work with our Board members and others, notably the tracks, to voice our reservations and allow for a period of adjustment. This entire exercise has been a work in progress.”

WHY IS THIS IMPORTANT RIGHT NOW?
The issue of shrinking purse revenues amid declining economic benchmarks couldn't be a more pressing issue in California right now, where the industry attempts to piece together a revised racing framework in the wake of Golden Gate's impending closure in June.

At the end of the day, therefore, those arguably most impacted by decisions around managing CAW play are the industry stakeholders attempting to eke out a living from the sport.

When asked for comment on the story, the California Thoroughbred Trainers (CTT) wrote in a prepared statement how, “based on Del Mar's representations and the TOC's confirmation of how the purse account there has been managed, we can only say we're disturbed and confused. In January of 2021, at a CTT Board meeting, we attempted to question TOC leadership at the time about how purse levels were being funded, and were angrily rebuked by those in charge.”

At that point in time, Greg Avioli was TOC president.

“Since purses are the lifeblood of our sport, and are fueled by the public's interest and its confidence in the integrity of pari-mutuel betting, the apparent lack of transparency we're hearing about now has to be remedied immediately,” the CTT added.

Scott Chaney | courtesy of the CHRB

According to CHRB executive director, Scott Chaney, the agency is “keenly aware of the questions, importance and interest surrounding CAWs and plans to place the topic on our meeting agenda in the next month or so.”

Chaney added how “the concepts of purse accounts and structure are also vitally important to racing in California, therefore in order promote understanding and transparency, we are in the process of amending our race meet license application to include additional questions in this area.”

All of which leads to this question: Will Elite 17 be offered the same deal this year?

“No. Negotiations are ongoing across the entire customer sector,” wrote Nader.

“High-volume players will agree that two key deliverables to make their business models more attractive are access and liquidity to commingled pools,” added Nader. “Our racetrack partners should also understand the collective upside and if everyone can take a step back and look at this thing holistically, we can work it out.”

The post Computer Assisted Wagering: Anatomy Of A Deal appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

Santa Anita, Murray wrote, was an “extravagance of beauty.” It was also a well-oiled money-spinner. Huge purses lured the best horses to Los Angeles, and the best horses lured the biggest crowds, their pockets brimming with the spoils of a post-war industrial boom transforming this callow cow-town into a maven of modernity.

“One day (Handicap Day in 1947), so many people showed up (85,500) that a crisis was created (the plumbing caved in under the strain) and the card almost had to be canceled,” Murray wrote.

This year's opening day at Santa Anita tells a different tale. A crowd of over 37,000 contributed to the “best handle ever among a total of 17 opening dates conducted on a Tuesday,” as the track's publicity department put it.

Putting inflation adjustments aside for the moment, that still constitutes a 30% drop from last year's total–the sort of back-foot number stakeholders desperately wanted to avoid as the track embarks upon another grueling six-month marathon into one of the most consequential years yet for the state's racing industry.

Amid an economic landscape of consolidation and contraction–which gives the distinct impression of a giant puzzle set where the pieces don't quite fit together–decisions will be made that will set this ship's course for the foreseeable future. Icebergs abound.

The compass guiding many of these decisions is this spinning dial: Can a sustainable long-term racing circuit in Northern California be pieced together in the void left by Golden Gate Fields?

TDN tried unsuccessfully in recent weeks to reach California Association of Racing Fairs (CARF) executive director, Larry Swartzlander. The LA Times, however, this week quoted Swartzlander as saying that he was “60%” certain a deal could be reached whereby the fair circuit would take over Golden Gate's dates, though would likely reduce them from 132 days a year to 103.

Tom “Bomber” Doutrich, CARF racing secretary, told the TDN he's “hopeful” an announcement about any such plan will arrive early in 2024. “There are two things you can say about CARF,” he added. “We need to get the purses right. And we've got to get a facility that we can turn into a top-class facility. We're working on that right now.”

NORCAL

To say that time is of the essence when it comes to these negotiations does a gross disservice to ticking clocks everywhere, as well as to the heads of racing operations juggling families, employees and their own tentative futures.

Golden Gate Fields is scheduled to race through June 9, 2024, after which the facility is set to close permanently. Next year's fair schedule is currently set to close out with a fall fair meet at Fresno from Oct. 2 through the 13th.

In the aftermath of the announced closure of Golden Gate, Swartzlander made several proposals for a restructured Northern California circuit, including a permanent base split between Santa Rosa and Cal Expo, or only at the latter track.

But such plans would require reaching an agreement with California's harness racing industry, which only last year extended its lease of operations of the Cal Expo Harness racetrack until May 2030.

Jack Liebau (right) with Tim Yakteen | Benoit

In the event no concrete proposal for Northern California materializes, a legislative fix may be sought to expand the menu of Thoroughbred races offered at Los Alamitos, said Bill Nader, president of the Thoroughbred Owners of California (TOC).

“We're on the clock and we're moving into 2024, so we have come up with alignment between the three tracks in the south for horses in the north to have suitable opportunities to compete in the south at Los Alamitos, Del Mar or Santa Anita,” said Nader.

This “alignment,” explained Nader, would include a statutory change to permit Los Alamitos–outside of their scheduled Thoroughbred meets–to stage Thoroughbred races beyond the current limit: 4 1/2 furlong races capped at a $5,000 claiming price.

“Provided there's no operator or plan that comes forth in the north, it would allow for those horses to remain in California and have a suitable opportunity to compete within their own state seamlessly. At least we have that,” said Nader, about such a proposal.

According to Jack Liebau, vice president of Los Alamitos, a legislative fix to go into immediate effect–as opposed to the start of January 2025, like most bills passed next year–needs an “urgency clause” requiring a two-thirds vote by the legislature.

“I think we can get the legislative change if it's fully supported by the industry as a whole. I don't know why anybody would oppose that,” said Liebau. “The devil, of course, will be in the details.”

According to Liebau, Los Alamitos can accommodate around 300 additional horses. In Golden Gate right now, there are around 1,150 horses.

But how motivated are trainers currently stabled at Golden Gate to funnel their horses south, in the event plans to furnish an alternative Northern calendar fall apart?

Answers are buffeted by other gusty headwinds. Purses at Golden Gate's final meet have been slashed by 25%, a result of the purse account being overdrawn by $3.1 million. (Nader told the TDN that Santa Anita's purse account is also in the red to the tune of $3.7 million)

In January, Berkeley City Council might vote on an ordinance that could essentially close Golden Gate before its anticipated June curtain call.

Ed Moger, a leading trainer at Golden Gate, recently said that while a 25% purse cut would likely spur some barns to cross state lines and relocate to Turf Paradise, he might shift a significant portion of his horses to Santa Anita instead.

“It's tougher to win a race at Santa Anita,” said Moger, at the time. “I'll have to play it by ear.”

But not everyone appears as ready to pack up box and truck for a trip south–not trainer Tim McCanna, who said that such a wholesale move would come only after every other alternative had been exhausted.

Blaine Wright | Benoit

“Seventy-five percent of the horses in the north won't fit the south,” McCanna explained, estimating that about 15 of his 40-horse Golden Gate string might suit the Southern circuit. “Most of the trainers can't go there either,” he added, alluding to the increased costs of Southern California living.

McCanna said he's “quite hopeful” an alternative Northern California circuit can be pieced together. But he also feels as though the Northern California trainer colony has been largely ignored by industry leadership during the travails of the past year.

“We were ambushed by this,” said McCanna, adding that an ownership group had recently moved five of his horses to Turfway Park, because of the purse cuts.

“The mood around the track is that it feels like we've been shot in the back,” said trainer Blaine Wright, who currently has around 50 horses at Golden Gate. “My clientele is not very happy with this purse reduction.”

Like McCanna, Wright is playing it by ear, hoping that in the New Year, news of a new viable Northern California circuit will trickle through.

If it doesn't, Wright said that he's already warned two of his staunchest patrons that the tough economics of maintaining a SoCal barn might behoove them to shut up shop.

“I said to them, 'if you don't want to race on the West Coast and you'd like to go to the Midwest or East where things are happening good, that would be fine,'” said Wright. “But I warned them, 'if you want to stay on the West Coast, my advice would be to get out of the business because the horses we have aren't going to do at Santa Anita.'”

Wright added: “How do you tell the people who have basically made your living for 16 years to get out of the business? I'm just trying to be truthful when I'm telling them I think the writing's on the wall here and the end's coming soon.”

BREEDERS

Back in August, long-time owner and breeder, Nick Alexander, warned the consolidation of racing in the south would be a body blow for the state's breeding industry. Has his thinking evolved since?

“No, is the short answer,” said Alexander, who added that he still expects to maintain his 35-strong broodmare band through next year.

Adrian Gonzalez | Fasig-Tipton

From a squad of five racehorses previously at Golden Gate, Alexander has shifted three south, and plans to do the same with one of the other two horses remaining. More broadly, he said he's “not optimistic” an alternative Northern racing circuit can be formed.

“It's a damn shame for the breeders up there,” said Alexander. “I'm 81 years old. If I was fifty and had kids in college and was trying to be a trainer in Northern California, what the hell would I do?”

Adrian Gonzalez of Checkmate Farm-a 66-acre ranch in Parkfield, California-is one of those trying to build a business for his young family.

Of Gonzalez's 30-strong broodmare band, about half are headed to Kentucky stallions, he said, and he's in two minds whether to bring them back to California to foal.

“If there's no commercial market left in California, we need to make sure our stock is something that can be sought after in other markets,” Gonzalez said. “Most of our clients are doing something similar,” he added.

Given this trend, Gonzalez said he's concerned about a sharp dip in Cal-breds in three years–what would be especially troubling if the state racing industry can be fortified against further erosion in the meantime, he added.

“The long-term impacts are definitely something we need to be focused on,” said California Thoroughbred Breeding Association (CTBA) president, Doug Burge.

As positives, Burge singled out how active California buyers were at Keeneland's November breeding stock sale. While Golden Gate's purses have been cut, he added, lucrative Cal-bred bonuses remain in place.

“I think in the future we'll see a major focus on quality,” Burge said, pointing to the recent run high-profile successes for horses bred in the state, including a 1-2 finish in the recent G1 La Brea S. for Cal-breds. “But we obviously need the numbers as well.”

Indeed, while California's foal crop has steadily declined–by nearly 25% between 2012 and 2021–Cal-breds have been playing an ever more important role in propping up the California racing calendar.

During Santa Anita's 2022-2023 six-month meet, Cal-breds made up about 37% of all individual starts, and Cal-bred races constituted more than 20% of the overall races carded.

Is there a number of foals bred annually below which the state's breeding industry becomes an unsustainable model?

Tom Clark | Jill Williams

“That depends on how much racing we'll have here in the next few years,” Burge said. “When you announce the closure of a major racetrack, it's obviously going to have a major impact.”

Tom Clark, the owner and manager of Rancho San Miguel–a mainstay of the state's breeding industry–estimates double digit declines in the number of mares bred in the state next year. Last year, 1,874 mares were bred to California stallions. Twenty years prior, the number was about three-times that.

“The response so far from clients generally has been to cut back or exit the breeding industry in the state,” said Clark. “The only exceptions are some of the larger farms–Barton [Thoroughbreds] and John Harris and Loveacres [Ranch]–who have continued to invest in broodmares for their own account.”

While the popularity of Clark's stallions means Rancho San Miguel has so far been fairly insulated from the worst of the declines, he said, unintended consequences are percolating through.

“I've got about 20 mares people want me to find homes for,” said Clark. “I just gave three away to new homes as of this morning. It's happening.”

Which begs the question: How will recent events impact California's flagship off-track Thoroughbred rehoming program?

“When they first announced that Golden Gate Fields would close, I had three different owners call me, and I took in three different horses,” said Lucinda Lovitt, executive director of the California Retirement Management Account (CARMA). “They didn't know what the future was, and they just wanted to make sure their horse had a good place.”

As the sport rolls into the New Year, however, Lovitt said she doesn't anticipate a situation where California's aftercare facilities are swamped with urgent requests.

That said, “I would expect we will continue to see what we've seen this past year, which is less space available in aftercare charities, and higher demand for these fewer slots,” said Lovitt.

STATISTICS

It was the author Fletcher Knebel who made the observation, “smoking is one of the leading causes of statistics.”

If only horse racing could so readily dismiss its numerical DNA.

This recent New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association (NYTHA) backed study by a cohort of Yale undergrads highlighted how a common feature of a contracting market is consolidation, and how this trend is impacting everything from the training population to racetrack management.

Indeed, nationally over the last 20 years, the industry has lost nearly 55% of its trainers, they found. Most have been “micro-trainers” and “midsize” trainers with a maximum 40 discreet horses respectively.

At the opposite end of the scale are “super trainers” who operate stables with 80 or more horses.

Bill Nader | Horsephotos

The number of super trainers has stayed relatively constant in the midst of declining trainer numbers. In 2003 there were 123 super trainers, and in 2022 there were 114.

The same trends play out in California, with the bottom end getting clobbered while the top end stays remarkably strong.

According to numbers crunched for the TDN using DRF chart data, the number of trainers making at least one individual start in California decreased by nearly 50% between 2007 and 2022.

The trainers with 20 or less individual annual starters decreased a similar 50% during that period.

The number of trainers with at least 100 individual annual starters in California, however, has remained around the 8-10 mark since 2009.

Last year, nine trainers with at least 100 individual annual starters in California–just 3% of the total trainer colony–accrued 35% of the total prize money and made 21% of the total starts.

In another worrying trend, training in California is becoming less and less of a young person's game.

According to data put together by the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB), the median age of a licensed trainer in California was 52 in 2003. As of this year, that statistic has matured to 61.

The guiding light behind these numbers is field size, which in turn drives handle, which in turn fuels purses. Field size has been especially problematic during Santa Anita's six-month winter-spring meet these past five years, though it has rebounded very slightly.

For the six-month meet in 2021-2022, the combined dirt and turf field size was 7.12. For the 2022-2023 meet, the combined field size was 7.2.

With that in mind, Nader said he doesn't expect the recently announced purse cuts to make a dent into the $3.7 million Santa Anita purse overpayment.

“I don't think it'll reduce at all, based on the current trends in business. If anything, the overpayment might even go up a little bit,” said Nader. “That's why the wish list for 2024 is to secure a secondary source of income to preserve and protect the purse structure and the industry going forward.”

But what could that be?

Twin sports wagering measures were torpedoed on last year's state ballot, casting dark clouds over future efforts. And though horse racing's standing in Sacramento has improved since the nadir of the 2019 Santa Anita welfare crisis, how likely is legislative support, even for an industry estimated to directly contribute over $4.5 billion to the state's economy, and over 77,700 jobs?

“It's incumbent upon all of us here to try to get something where the state legislature provides some type of recognition to the industry, and a level of support–again, maybe not the same advantages the other competing states enjoy–but something that gives us a chance to compete,” said Nader, declining, however, to speculate upon any specifics of what that “recognition” might look like.

Furthermore, should the heightened impact from the state's super trainers on field size during a period of such accelerated contraction be high up on the TOC's agenda for next year?

“In terms of trying to get more competitive field sizes and better business results, it's better if there's more parity. Sure. But how you manufacture that, it's tricky,” said Nader. “It's hard to say to an owner, 'you need to give your horse to this trainer and not that trainer.' It has to be carefully thought through.”

SANTA ANITA

The variables weighing in on the future of the sport are–for want of a less utilitarian phrase–multifactorial. Just take the topic of Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW).

CAW players constitute a small group of high-volume and largely anonymous gamblers with an outsized impact on the betting markets—including in California—due to the use of sophisticated wagering tools. Because of their high stakes play, they're offered inducements in the form of rebates and reduced takeout rates largely not available to the average punter.

Last summer, Del Mar introduced measures to help curb CAW play. By the meet's end, Del Mar's total handle was down some 10% compared to the year prior, according to the DRF.

The TDN asked the CHRB for a breakdown of CAW play per-pool for last summer's meet at Del Mar. The agency said it does not yet have those granular figures.

Santa Anita's new Tapeta surface being installed | Santa Anita

But the CHRB provided a total breakdown of handle per betting location, including from the most influential of these computer syndicates, the Elite Turf Club, a Curacao-based company owned by The Stronach Group and NYRA Bets LLC.

According to this data, Elite Turf Club total handle during Del Mar's summer meet dropped 23.7% from 2022 to 2023: $116.9 million last year compared to $89.1 million this year.

How industry leaders in California manage the thorny topic of CAW play next year, therefore, will be a key driver of revenues.

For many stakeholders, another key tangible will be the roll-out of TSG's much vaunted $30 million-plus investment into the Southern California racing furniture, including new stabling at Santa Anita, new tracks at the facility, and industry support funds.

The replacement of Santa Anita's dirt training track with Tapeta is scheduled for a mid-January finish. According to Craig Fravel, chief executive office at 1/ST Racing, there are tentative plans to modify one of the barns at Santa Anita next summer.

The other big-ticket items slated for development in 2024–including a new one-mile turf chute, an equine swimming pool and horse exercisers–have been put on hold, however.

“We've wanted to focus on getting the synthetic surface done. The price tag on that has come in higher than we had expected,” said Fravel. “Right now, we're just very much focused on the racing calendar, trying to enhance the prospects for horses moving down here and improving the product in Southern California.”

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This Tuesday, an 11-race card kicks off at 2 p.m. ET under the picturesque San Gabriel mountains in Arcadia, California–six of which are graded stakes.

To entice the horseplayer, the Classic Meet sports a $1 Pick Six, a 14 percent takeout on both the .50 Early and Late Pick 5, and we will see the return of the $3 All-Turf Pick 3, which was announced during the recent Autumn Meet.

As for the graded lineup, of course the feature is once again the GI Malibu S. for 3-year-olds going seven furlongs on dirt.

Trainer Bob Baffert has GSW Speed Boat Beach (Bayern), GSW Fort Bragg (Tapit) and GISP Hejazi (Bernardini) ready to go. The Hall of Famer, who won last year's edition with 'TDN Rising Star' Taiba (Gun Runner), is seeking his sixth win in the Malibu. That would tie fellow Hall member Richard Mandella for most wins all-time in the race.

The 3-year-old fillies take the stage in the GI La Brea S. going seven furlongs. GISP Clearly Unhinged (Into Mischief) looks to be the leading contender. The Michael McCarthy-trainee was most recently sixth at 'The Great Race Place' in the GI Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint Nov. 4.

Baffert, who has won the last two La Breas, and with a record of nine overall, enters GSP Fast and Shiny (Bernardini), while trainer Brad Cox ships in SW Howl (Practical Joke).

Anisette | Benoit

In the GI American Oaks for 3-year-old fillies at 1 1/4 miles on turf, GISW Anisette (GB) Awtaad (Ire) is the standout. The Leonard Powell-trainee won the GI Del Mar Oaks and GII San Clemente S. at Del Mar earlier this year. Most recently, Anisette was the runner-up in both the GII Rodeo Drive S. Oct. 7 and GIII Autumn Miss S. Nov. 5, both at Santa Anita.

Alongside the three Grade Is are the same number of Grade IIs, which all carry a purse of $200,000. The GII San Gabriel S. for 3-year-olds and up at nine furlongs on turf includes Easter (Fr). The Phil D'Amato-trainee won his first start for his new barn in the GII Seabiscuit H. at Del Mar Nov. 25. The 5-year-old Australian-bred by Exosphere (Aus) was previously based in New York with trainer Graham Motion.

The GII San Antonio S. is for 3-year-olds and up going 1 1/16 miles on dirt. Present are Stilleto Boy (Shackleford), winner of this year's GI Santa Anita H.; GSW Newgrange (Violence); MGSW Brickyard Ride (Clubhouse Ride); and GSW Salesman (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}). Add in South American import Subsanador (Arg) (Fortify), who is a Argentinian multiple Group 1 winner, and this makes for a pretty salty affair.

In what might be the most open battle on the whole card, the GII Mathis Mile S. over the grass for 3-year-olds includes GSP Almendares (GB) (Havana Grey {GB}), SW Dandy Man Shines (Ire) (Dandy Man {Ire}) and GSP Panic Alarm (Ire) (Kuroshio {Aus}).

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Among the key rulings from the last seven days, the prohibition of intra-articular injections within seven days of a timed or reported workout once again stands out as a thorn in the side of trainers.

Three such cases have been resolved in the past week, resulting in $3,000 fines meted out in each case.

The Horseracing Integrity and Welfare Unit (HIWU) also handed down a seven-day suspension and $1,000 fine to trainer Norman Follett, for a post-race Lidocaine positive following a September runner at Belmont at the Big A. Lidocaine is a pain reliever used ubiquitously in human medicine.

The details of the ruling are not yet publicly available. But Equibase shows Follett to run a small New York-based stable. This year, he has made only 39 starts and had one winner.

NEW HISA/HIWU STEWARDS RULINGS
The following rulings were reported on HISA's “rulings” portal and through the HIWU's “pending” and “resolved” cases portals.

Resolved ADMC Violations
Date: 11/4/2023
Licensee: Gustavo Amaya, trainer
Penalty: A fine of $3,000; imposition of 3 Penalty Points. Admission.
Explainer: A possible violation of Rule 3314—Use or Attempted Use of a Controlled Medication Substance or a Controlled Medication Method—on the horse, Sandpiper Memories. This was also a possible violation of Rule 4222—Intra-Articular Injections Within Seven (7) Days of Timed and Reported Workout.

Date: 10/26/2023
Licensee: Wendell McDaniel, trainer
Penalty: A fine of $500; imposition of 1.5 Penalty Points. Final decision by HIWU.
Explainer: For the presence of Phenylbutazone—Controlled Medication (Class C)—in a sample taken from Big Difference. This is a possible violation of Rule 3312—Presence of Controlled Medication Substance and/or its Metabolites or Markers (Post-Race/Vets' List).

Date: 10/25/2023
Licensee: Peter Miller, trainer
Penalty: A fine of $3,000; imposition of 3 Penalty Points. Final decision by HIWU.
Explainer: A possible violation of Rule 3314—Use or Attempted Use of a Controlled Medication Substance or a Controlled Medication Method—on the horse, Thirsty John. This was also a possible violation of Rule 4222—Intra-Articular Injections Within Seven (7) Days of Timed and Reported Workout.

Date: 10/24/2023
Licensee: Jamie Ness, trainer
Penalty: A fine of $3,000; imposition of 3 Penalty Points. Final decision by HIWU.
Explainer: A possible violation of Rule 3314—Use or Attempted Use of a Controlled Medication Substance or a Controlled Medication Method—on the horse, Dust Devil. This is also a possible violation of Rule 4222—Intra-Articular Injections Within Seven (7) Days of Timed and Reported Workout.

Date: 10/14/2023
Licensee: Ronnie Cravens, trainer
Penalty: Disqualification of Covered Horse's Race results, including forfeiture of all purses and other compensation, prizes, trophies, points, and rankings and repayment or surrender (as applicable); a fine of $500; imposition of 1.5 Penalty Points. Final decision by HIWU.
Explainer: For the presence of Phenylbutazone—Controlled Medication (Class C)—in a sample taken from Saturday's Gold, who won at Remington Park Oct. 14, 2023. This is a possible violation of Rule 3312—Presence of Controlled Medication Substance and/or its Metabolites or Markers (Post-Race/Vets' List).

Date: 10/11/2023
Licensee: Darlene Green, trainer
Penalty: Disqualification of Covered Horse's Race results, including forfeiture of all purses and other compensation, prizes, trophies, points, and rankings and repayment or surrender (as applicable); a written reprimand (per 9/26/23 HISA Guidance). Final decision by HIWU.
Explainer: For the presence of Omeprazole—Controlled Medication (Class C)—in a sample taken from Highcotton Justice, who finished second at Horseshoe Indianapolis Oct. 11, 2023. This is a possible violation of Rule 3312—Presence of Controlled Medication Substance and/or its Metabolites or Markers (Post-Race/Vets' List).

Date: 9/22/2023
Licensee: Norman Follett, trainer
Penalty: 7-day period of Ineligibility, beginning on Dec. 5, 2023; Disqualification of Covered Horse's Race results, including forfeiture of all purses and other compensation, prizes, trophies, points, and rankings and repayment or surrender (as applicable); a fine of $1,000; imposition of 2 Penalty Points. Admission.
Explainer: For the presence of Lidocaine—Controlled Medication (Class B)—in a sample taken from Racing Colors, who finished second at Belmont at the Big A Sept. 22, 2023. This is a possible violation of Rule 3312—Presence of Controlled Medication Substance and/or its Metabolites or Markers (Post-Race/Vets' List).

Pending ADMC Violations
Date: 11/01/2023
Licensee: Steve Krebs, trainer
Penalty: Pending
Alleged violation: Medication violation
Explainer: For the presence of Guaifenesin—Controlled Medication (Class C)—in a sample taken from Burn The Evidence, who won at Parx Racing Nov. 1, 2023. This is a possible violation of Rule 3312—Presence of Controlled Medication Substance and/or its Metabolites or Markers (Post-Race/Vets' List).

Date: 10/31/2023
Licensee: Ortis Henry, trainer
Penalty: Pending
Alleged violation: Medication violation
Explainer: For the presence of Glycopyrrolate—Controlled Medication (Class C)—in a sample taken from Empress Palpatine, who finished second at Finger Lakes Oct. 31, 2023. This is a possible violation of Rule 3312—Presence of Controlled Medication Substance and/or its Metabolites or Markers (Post-Race/Vets' List).

Date: 10/28/2023
Licensee: Tony Lello, trainer
Penalty: Pending
Alleged violation: Medication violation
Explainer: For the presence of Methocarbamol—Controlled Medication (Class C)—in a sample taken from Reel Em In. This is a possible violation of Rule 3312—Presence of Controlled Medication Substance and/or its Metabolites or Markers (Post-Race/Vets' List).

Violations of Crop Rule
One important note: HISA's whip use limit is restricted to six strikes during a race.

Del Mar
Armando Aguilar – violation date Dec. 1; $250 fine, one-day suspension
Tyler Gaffalione – violation date Dec. 2; $277 fine, one-day suspension

Remington Park
Jermaine Valentino Bridgmohan – violation date Nov. 29; $250 fine, one-day suspension

OTHER KEY RULINGS
The TDN also publishes a roundup of key official rulings from the primary tracks within the four major racing jurisdictions of California, New York, Florida and Kentucky.

Here's a primer on how each of these jurisdictions adjudicates different offenses, what they make public (or not) and where.

California
Track: Del Mar
Date: 12/03/2023
Licensee: Keron Thomas, owner
Penalty: Suspension
Violation: Failure to comply with financial responsibility agreement
Explainer: Owner Keron Thomas is suspended after failing to comply to the terms agreed to in the hearing for violation of California Horse Racing Board rule #1876 (Financial Responsibility – Sunshine Farms [Boarding cost] $5,170.97). Suspension to commence Dec. 16, 2023.

Track: Del Mar
Date: 12/03/2023
Licensee: Antonio Fresu, jockey
Penalty: One-day suspension
Violation: Competing in one more designated race than permitted
Explainer: Jockey Antonio Fresu is suspended for 1 additional racing day (Dec. 10, 2023) pursuant to California Horse Racing Board rule #1766 (f) (Designated Races – participated in more than one designated race on Dec. 3, 2023).

New York
Track: Aqueduct
Date: 11/30/2023
Licensee: Jose Antonio Gomez, jockey
Penalty: Five-day suspension
Violation: Careless riding
Explainer: Having waived his right to an appeal Jockey Mr. Jose Antonio Gomez is hereby suspended five NYRA racing days. Effective Dec. 7-10, 2023, and Dec. 14, 2023, inclusive. This for careless riding during the running of the 7th race at Aqueduct Racetrack Nov. 25, 2023.

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5th-AQU, $85K, Msw, 2yo, f, 7f, 2:14 p.m. ET.
Courtlandt Farms purchased Whocouldaskformo (Uncle Mo) for $450,000 at last year's Keeneland September Sale. She debuts for Shug McGaughey alongside fellow firster and workmate, Very Practical (Practical Joke).

Whocouldaskformo's dam Midnight Belle (Bernardini) is a half-sister to GI Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic heroine Unrivaled Belle (Unbridled's Song), who went to Whisper Hill Farm at the 2016 Keeneland November Sale for $3.6 million while in foal to Tapit. She produced two-time champion Unique Bella (Tapit). Midnight Belle is also a half-sister the dam of GIII Gotham S. hero Raise Cain (Violence). TJCIS PPS

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Consigned by Lane's End (hip 213), the auction's overall third topper was bred by Greg Goodman's Mt. Brilliant Farm & Ranch and Lane's End's W. S. Farish. It was Goodman who purchased her SP dam Ithinkisawapudycat (Bluegrass Cat) for $2.2 million in-foal to Constitution at the 2016 Keeneland November Sale.

A half-sister to Canadian champion Spring In The Air (Spring At Last), Ithinkisawapudycat's first offspring was 2016 GI Spinaway S. heroine Sweet Loretta (Tapit). She also produced SP Bridlewood Cat (Street Sense), a 2017 Keeneland September purchase for $750,000 by Bridlewood Farm, who herself foaled a yearling by Authentic, a weanling by Essential Quality and visited Tapit for next year.

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The bay colt out of GSW Magical Feeling (Empire Maker) counts Oaklawn Mile S. hero Exulting (Tapit) as a half-brother and GIII Monmouth Oaks heroine Occult as a full-sister. Under the third dam, we find GI Travers S. champ Golden Ticket (Speightstown).

The other Baffert first time starter here is Pilot Commander (Justify), who winged his way during OBS March to a 9 4/5 furlong at the undertack breeze show and then jetted home with CSLR Partners for $700,000. The chestnut colt out of Rebuke (Carson City) is a half-brother to GSP Freedom Flyer (Constitution). TJCIS PPS

The post Saturday Insights: Pricey Sons Of Into Mischief And Justify Debut At Del Mar For Baffert appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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#5 JULIAS DREAM ($3.20) makes her return to the turf a winning one, taking the lead in the stretch and holding off a late rally by Cheeky Gal to win the 3rd at @DelMarRacing.

The 2yo filly by @darbydanfarm's Flameaway was ridden by Flavien Prat for @mwmracing & Talla Racing. pic.twitter.com/F4DLIHWoQL

— TVG (@TVG) November 10, 2023

The post ‘TDN Rising Star’ Julias Dream Back On Del Mar Turf And In Winner’s Circle appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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This year's stakes schedule is very similar to last year. Out of 15, nine are graded. Over $2 million in purse money will be up for grabs over the course of the four-week meet, including the GI Hollywood Derby on Saturday, Dec. 2 and the GI Matriarch S. on Sunday, Dec. 3.

“Where we're laid out on the calendar is perfect,” Del Mar racing secretary David Jerkens said. “Mark Casse is sending a small string. Graham Motion. Wesley Ward has a few horses here. Obviously, the Breeders' Cup has just wrapped up but based on past history we've received quite a bit of an influx from the Chad Brown and Christophe Clement barns back east.”

Click here for the complete stakes scheduled.

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Besides his three earlier fall sojourns, Collmus also covered the limited 2020 summer season at the track.

“We really couldn't ask for anyone better than Larry to be filling our booth in the planned absence of our longstanding caller Trevor Denman,” said Josh Rubinstein, Del Mar's president and COO. “He brings terrific energy to his role here, both behind the mic and on the social media scene. To top it all off, he tells us he just loves calling races at Del Mar.”

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