The trail to Derby 150 begins a much steeper ascent on Saturday at Fair Grounds in New Orleans as the GIII Lecomte S. offers 3-year-old colts 20-10-6-4-2 that can be applied to Bank of Churchill.

This year's edition pits a field of eight against one another with the central question being: what happened to Nash (Medaglia d'Oro) in the December running of the Gun Runner S.?

The heavy favorite was unable to build on his Nov. 12 'TDN Rising Star' performance under the Twin Spires at second asking when he powered to the lead, torched a field of maidens by 10 1/4 lengths and posted a 97 Beyer for trainer Brad Cox.

The race shape in the Gun Runner was nothing of the sort for the Godolphin homebred, as he was forced to watch Track Phantom (Quality Road) take control towards the end of the backstretch and never relinquish the lead.

Track Phantom (center) with Nash (along the rail) | Hodges Photography/Amanda Hodges Weir

“It was great to see him [Track Phantom] win the race against a talented field, but especially with going as fast as they did early and showing enough quality to still respond,” said the winner's trainer Steve Asmussen. “I love how he's doing, very happy with him and how he's trained since the Gun Runner. I feel good about the draw and excited to run him again. Past success from there so we'll see what we can do.”

Of course, the pair will have others to contend with in this spot and chief among them is Lat Long (Liam's Map). The dark bay trained by Ken McPeek was never out of the money in all five of his juvenile starts against maiden special weight company starting at Churchill back in September. Facing the likes of GSW Dornoch (Good Magic) and Track Phantom himself, Lat Long broke through at Oaklawn Dec. 17 against his stablemate and next-out winner Common Defense (Karakontie {Jpn}).

“[Lat Long] has been a horse who is still trying to figure it out a bit,” McPeek said. “He's not all there yet. But we're going to try him at a higher level and see how he handles tougher company.”

Also after points is Can Group (Good Samaritan), who was last seen running fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita for trainer Mark Casse. Joining him will be two more Cox runners in Ethan Energy (Uncle Mo), who broke his maiden by 5 1/4 lengths at second asking over this surface Dec. 23, and Awesome Road (Quality Road). Bred by Claiborne Farm, the latter was a $600,000 Keeneland September purchase by Albaugh Family Stables and Donegal Racing.

Saudi Crown Kick Starts His 4-Year-Old Campaign

Preceding the Lecomte is the GIII Louisiana S. for 4-year-olds and up going 1 1/16th on the main track. This race marks the return of Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming). Now a 4-year-old, the gray debuted a winner by 4 3/4 lengths at Keeneland last April, then won against allowance company at Churchill Downs a month later.

Saudi Crown | Sarah Andrew

Finishing over the summer as the runner-up by a nose in the GIII Dwyer S. at Belmont Park and in the GII Jim Dandy S. at Saratoga, the Brad Cox trainee set the pace en route to the winner's circle in the GI Pennsylvania Derby at Parx in September. A popular pick in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, the colt finished a well-beaten 10th to close out his year.

“I'm not treating it like he has to be on the lead,” Cox said. “He's a smart horse. He's capable of sitting off. When he broke his maiden, he sat off horses. I really don't think he has to be on the lead. It probably will be a situation where he will have to take a breath at some point, you can't just run all-out throughout.”

After Cox watched Saudi Crown drill five furlongs behind Nash Jan. 13 (1:00.20, 3/51), the trainer said, “It didn't quite set up as well as we expected. There were other horses out there and we got caught up with a little more company than we wanted. I was very, very happy with the breeze. He was a little wide through the lane and around the turn. Plenty fit. He had a good work the week before last. We just wanted him to cruise along the other day and he did. I think he's set up for a big spot.”

Opposing him in New Orleans are a number of seasoned challengers looking to set the tone for their own campaigns. Smile Happy (Runhappy) has not been seen since he ran fifth in the GI Stephen Foster S. at Ellis Park in July. The 'TDN Rising Star' has a resume which includes a pair of Grade II wins in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. as a juvenile and in last year's Alysheba S.–both at Churchill Downs.

Making the gate is deep closer GSW Red Route One (Gun Runner), defending winner and GISP Happy American (Runhappy) and GII Rebel S. hero Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}).

Midnight Memories Faces Desert Dawn Once Again

Swinging out to Santa Anita Park on Saturday afternoon, the GIII La Canada S. has MGSW Midnight Memories (Mastery) taking on MGISP Desert Dawn (Cupid). The last time these two met as 4-year-old fillies in the GIII Bayakoa S. at Los Alamitos Dec. 15, it was Midnight Memories who got the best of her rival by a length. Favored at 6-5 on the morning line, the Bob Baffert trainee will also have to contend with, among others, GISP Musical Mischief (Into Mischief) and Coffee in Bed (Curlin).

The post ‘Rising Star’ Nash Faces Track Phantom In Lecomte Rematch Headlining Saturday Graded Races appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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“He trained all right this morning,” said Confidence Game's trainer, Keith Desormeaux.

The colt was last seen finishing 10th in the GI Kentucky Derby.

“He's just not 100%. He's got something aggravating him in the right front shoulder area. We're going to send him to Dr. [Larry] Bramlage [at Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital] and let him do full diagnostics and let him advise us on how to proceed. He's good, but he's not Preakness perfect.”

After he was scratched from Saturday's Long Branch S. at Monmouth, Coffeewithchris's connections alerted Pimlico officials Saturday morning that the Maryland bred is being pointed toward a Preakness start. Jaime Rodriguez, who has been aboard for the gelding's last five starts including a win in Laurel's Heft S., will have the mount in the second jewel in the Triple Crown.

“Our plan was to run in the Preakness,” said trainer John Salzman Jr. “We were hoping to win the [Federico] Tesio [5th last time out Apr. 15]. The biggest thing is coming up with the money sometimes. I'm a poor working guy. Thirty thousand is a lot of money. I looked at the Long Branch. It wasn't an easy spot. If it was an easy spot, I might have gone on to the Long Branch. I worked it out to come up with the funds to take a chance. I don't get to take a chance very often.”

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1) Mage (No. 12 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Mage, the little horse who could, was a characteristic beat slow out of the starting gate. Javier Castellano let him roll with the flow as the field sorted itself out through the first furlong, then darted to secure the rail while fourth-last the first time under the wire.

Unhurried through the turn, this son of Good Magic ($235,000 KEESEP; $290,000 EASMAY) raced several paths off the rail down the backstretch. Castellano seemed content knowing a brisk pace was percolating in front of him while aware the two late-running faves were also still parked at the back.

Edging closer, Mage tagged on behind the rapidly advancing Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits) entering the far turn. Sensing two rivals ranging up from the outside and not wanting to be locked in, Castellano committed his colt to an ever-widening arc to get clear of them. Mage was still 11th while four deep three-eighths out, but he was winding up for a move that would prove to be a better-timed version of the one he uncorked in the GI Florida Derby.

Building momentum, Castellano urged Mage with a more energetic cadence and steered for home in the eight path. He set down Mage as soon as they straightened away, advancing from fifth at the quarter pole to second three-sixteenths out. Zeroing in on a tiring-but not quitting-Two Phil's (Hard Spun), Mage accosted that pacemaker at the eighth pole, with Castellano cracking his colt once right-handed.

Mage didn't exactly blow by the pesky Two Phil's, who lingered a half-length back while Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) emerged as the lone remaining danger. Mage stalled for a stride at the sixteenth pole, but refocused quickly under Castellano's persistent (but never panicked) rousing, driving home with purpose to win by a length (105 Beyer Speed Figure).

2) Two Phil's (No. 11 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Two Phil's ($150,000 RNA KEESEP) broke decently from post three, but an eighth of a mile into the race, Jareth Loveberry wanted no part of being stuck inside, so he guided his colt several paths outward. A trio of speedsters had opened up by three lengths into the first turn, and Two Phil's was in the middle of a second flight of three that crept closer on the back straightaway.

The two waves soon merged, yet even as the pack tightened, Loveberry and Two Phil's appeared relaxed and comfortable. That spot two lanes off the fence proved to be prime positioning into the far turn, because when Verifying (Justify) was first among the duelers to crack, Loveberry shot through to claim the inside passage he vacated, and within three strides Two Phil's had put away Reincarnate (Good Magic) and Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo), who were both being driven while Two Phil's was opening up under hand urging.

At the head of the lane, all the spent horses were bogged down inside, and Two Phil's braced for the wide-and-driving Mage. Two Phil's was understandably fatigued from stalking the fast pace and getting first run at the leaders, and while he was no match for Mage, this colt never packed it in. He stayed on as best he could under Loveberry's urging and held second by a half-length, replicating the 2007 Derby finish of his sire, Hard Spun. He galloped out on even terms with Mage and co-earned a 105 Beyer.

3) Angel of Empire (No. 10 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Angel of Empire ($32,000 RNA KEENOV; $70,000 KEESEP) was sent away from the gate, but not so much to ask him for early speed as to put his head in the game straight from the start. He settled willingly for Flavien Prat third from last the first time through the lane, and seven-eighths out dropped from the three path onto the rail and rode it until the far turn, gradually picking off midpack stragglers as he advanced.

Prat wisely opted off the inside when Verifying began plummeting through the field, and this colt very much looked in it to win it at the top of the stretch. He was eight wide and right behind Mage, but the difference was that Mage kicked into a higher gear while Angel of Empire continued to grind along. This son of Classic Empire was still three lengths in arrears at the eighth pole when Mage made his winning move.

Angel of Empire did find his best stride in that final furlong, but it was too late. Even with an untroubled trip and zesty fractions setting things up for him, this Pennsylvania-bred's usual closing kick wasn't quite good enough to reel in Two Phil's for second-and that's despite upping his best lifetime Beyer by 10 points, from 94 to 104. The top three galloped out more or less together.

4) Disarm (No. 8 in TDN pre-race rankings)
'TDN Rising Star' Disarm (Gun Runner) broke inward from post nine and love-tapped Reincarnate, with neither large-framed colt fazed by the contact. Joel Rosario took every opportunity in the early running to shift this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred deeper down toward the rail, and he found the fence within the back third of the pack by the time the field crested the clubhouse turn.

Disarm kept bettering his position while eating a fair amount of kickback, but he was never able to cut loose with a sustained run and often appeared “on hold” or on the verge of getting pocketed. He split horses on the far turn, but was walled up near the inside off the final bend, which in this year's Derby was not the place to be because of the cluster of tiring horses taking up residence there.

In upper stretch, Rosario tried to dive outward through a hole that Hit Show (Candy Ride{Arg}) got to first, so Plan B was to slice back inside, which only yielded more tight traffic for a precious half-furlong. Disarm shouldered aside the capitulating Kingsbarns, but when he finally go clear running room inside the final eighth, he had no finishing flourish.

Beaten 4 ½ lengths, Disarm was the final Derby horse in the race to be awarded a triple-digit Beyer, and that 100 represented a respectable 10-point jump off the 90s he paired in his previous two races.

5) Hit Show (No. 9 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Although he never fired despite attaining a no-excuse trip from the difficult one post, this Candy Ride (Arg) homebred for Gary and Mary West ran a commendable race, especially considering he's a May 9 foal.

Hit Show broke fluidly from the inside gate, affording Manny Franco the luxury of positioning him where he wanted in the early part of the race. Initially fifth, Hit Show got geared back to seventh through the turn, then was eased off the fence to the four path so Franco could claim a sweet, uncrowded stalking spot behind the speedsters with no one covering him up and plenty of room to maneuver.

Sixth into the far bend, Hit Show started to pick it up with a four-wide run 3 ½ furlongs out under urging from Franco. He looked poised to pounce from third turning for home, but had no response to three left-handed swats in upper stretch. In the manner of a few strides, Hit Show went from attack mode to being under siege. Mage blew by to his outside, and Hit Show stayed on doggedly, with Franco keeping him to task to get fifth money.

6) Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (No. 14 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Derma Sotogake (Jpn) broke toward the back with his head briefly turned inward. There was no rush by Christophe Lemaire to contest the pace. This ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL son of Mind Your Biscuits seemed okay placed farther back in the pack than expected despite getting pelted with kickback.

Lemaire moved decisively 4 1/2 furlongs out, splitting horses at the entrance to the far turn and initially picking off Disarm toward his inside and targeting the on-the-prowl Hit Show in front of him. Derma Sotogake seemed to be drawing a bead on the top trio off the turn, but he was quickly overtaken by Mage and Angel of Empire, whose full heads of steam stood out in contrast against his one-paced action.

“He didn't break as fast as last time but I was able to put him on the inside and save ground,” Lemaire said. “Gradually, we gained position on the final turn. I was in the best spot to make a move, he stayed on and but didn't have the speed to make it closer late.”

The field leaving the starting gate for the 2023 GI Kentucky Derby | Coady

7) Tapit Trice (No. 5 in TDN pre-race rankings)
You can watch the Derby replay as many times as you want, but trainer Todd Pletcher aptly summed up the trip for this 'TDN Rising Star' in his immediate take right after the race:  “Tapit Trice did what he always does-he broke slow and then he had to check a couple of times heading into the first turn. When it came time he couldn't get going well enough. Farther for him-we're thinking [GI] Belmont [S.].”

Luis Saez had to implore this $1.3 million KEESEP son of Tapit straight out of the starting stall, and he briefly lost momentum when Mage dropped in front of him a furlong into the race. Tapit Trice was last into the turn, but was already on the move six furlongs out, which is how he won the GI Blue Grass S.

He picked off three rivals at the back before another minor stutter-step stall a half mile out; Saez seemed conflicted going into the far turn about whether inside or outside would be best. But it really didn't matter because Tapit Trice had left himself too much work to do.

This colt did respond to far-turn rousing, but it takes Tapit Trice quite a while to fully unwind. He spun nine wide into the lane, and when it was evident he not within realistic striking distance, Saez decided to save Tapit Trice for another day.

8) Raise Cain (No. 19 in TDN pre-race rankings)
This son of Violence ($180,000 KEESEP; $65,000 RNA OBSOPN) ran a sneaky-good eighth. He broke running from post 13 and could have made the front vanguard, but Gerardo Corrales took a firm hold and guided him back, eventually latching on to a midpack spot at the fence through the first turn.

Raise Cain showed a nice ability to pick off selected targets down the backstretch, always bettering his position, and when the far turn arrived, he had achieved a tactically advantageous spot behind the too-fast frontrunners down near the inside.

Corrales pulled off a deft move when shifting outside of the tiring Verifying, then reclaiming his spot at the rail. But when the field straightened, the need to get off the plugged-up inside suddenly became desperate, and Raise Cain had to waste forward momentum by repeatedly shifting laterally through the lane. He only encountered more and more traffic, enduring some bumping that stalled his late run for good. Overall though, the effort rates much better than it looks on paper.

9) Rocket Can (No. 13 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Junior Alvarado said post-race that, “I think I had one of the best trips in the race,” and he's probably right-at least for the first mile of the journey.

Rocket Can, a $245,000 FTSAUG RNA gray, was initially a touch keen while briefly running up on heels in the first few strides, but he settled in seventh, inching closer to the action as the two front packs merged into one. He came out to the four path and enjoyed similar uncovered placement as Hit Show while edging to within four lengths of the leaders into the last turn.

After saving ground, this blinkers-on son of Into Mischief tried to punch through between rivals three-sixteenths out, but he had tiring horses on both sides and it wasn't initially apparent if Two Phil's ahead of him was stopping or staying on. By the time Alvarado called on Rocket Can for another burst, the colt had nothing left to give.

10) Confidence Game (No. 18 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Judging Confidence Game's try based on how close he was to a hot pace and how long he hung in there, his Derby 10th at 21-1 odds comes off as a likeable effort.

This $25,000 KEESEP Candy Ride (Arg) colt threw himself right into the race by breaking with good energy and securing a primo position, fourth at the rail into the turn behind a trio of eager  pacemakers.

He was fifth, then fourth for most of the backstretch run, attending the brisk splits while waiting to see how the duel would come undone. Confidence Game attempted to follow the dive-between move of Two Phil's five-sixteenths out, but Two Phil's was into the bridle with more alacrity, relegating this colt to chase mode turning for home closest to the rail.

At the eighth pole, Confidence Game was still within three of the leaders when Mage powered past Two Phil's. But he had that “spinning his wheels” look to his stride, and couldn't sustain his bid. He wasn't hammered on by James Graham when it became evident he wouldn't attain a placing.

11) Sun Thunder (No. 15 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Even with blinkers added, this late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) was unhurried out of the gate, settling into stride second from last the first time past the finish.

Sun Thunder gained a few positions on the far turn and into the stretch, primarily from passing horses who had no forward momentum.

“I think we'll point to the Belmont after this,” trainer Ken McPeek said. “He was a little up against it today, but we'll come back to fight another day.”

12) Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Unranked also-eligible in TDN pre-race rankings)
Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) was a hard-charging pace presence out of gate 17 without really being hustled. He suffered only slight momentum loss when Rocket Can knifed in front of him through the stretch.

Midpack and between rivals onto the backstretch, Kazushi Kimura rode him with confidence, then shook the reins at him with a sense of urgency when fellow Japanese invader Derma Sotogake ranged alongside and quickened into the far turn.

Mandarin Hero was asked for run four deep through the bend, and he came in close quarters with the brawny Tapit Trice. But this colt kept getting passed even though he was responding to his rider.

13) Reincarnate (No. 6 in TDN pre-race rankings)
This $775,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic had Disarm bounce off his outside flank a few jumps out of the gate, but Reincarnate's natural speed carried him straight to the front, where he hooked up as the outermost horse in a three-way go.

John Velazquez tacked him back behind Verifying and Kingsbarns down the back straight, and even though this colt was incrementally edging up a half mile out, he couldn't make much of a dent in the margin because the fractions were so demanding.

Reincarnate's best chance came on the far turn when Verifying was the first to crack, but he couldn't muster an authoritative response to put away the ready-to-cave Kingsbarns. Two Phil's slipped through to his inside instead, and Velazquez concentrated on keeping his own regressing mount out of the way of onrushing contenders once he realized no final kick was coming from Reincarnate.

14) Kingsbarns (No. 7 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Kingsbarns, now a 3-for-4 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR)  won a couple of in-race battles after getting a good jump out of starting stall six.

After establishing a wicked pace, Kingsbarns dueled Verifying into defeat while still in hand entering the far turn under Jose Ortiz, and then kept next-closest pursuer Reincarnate at bay.

But by the midway point on the far bend Kingsbarns had no real response when Two Phil's swallowed him up and a sizable portion of the field careened by. Although out of the race by upper stretch, Kingsbarns managed to contribute to an inside logjam that adversely affected several contenders, although none of them truly had a winning shot.

“I sacrificed going a little bit faster than I wanted to in order to be in a good spot,” Ortiz said. “I wish we could have given him a breather on the backside.”

15) King Russell (Unranked also-eligible in TDN pre-race rankings)
This $60,000 FTKOCT gray by Creative Cause overcame a wide draw from post 18 but could only scrape together a mild mid-race spurt after going four wide on the clubhouse turn.

“He made a nice move from the five-eighths pole to the three-eighths pole, and then after that, he started to get tired and give up,” said jockey Rafael Bejarano.

16) Verifying (No. 4 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Post position two sealed Verifying's fate as a Derby frontrunner, even though he is probably more accomplished and comfortable as a pace-presser.

Tyler Gaffalione let him rumble through torrid opening quarters of :22.35 and :23.38 while forced forward by the speed-centric Kingsbarns and Reincarnate. When Verifying had no more left to give, his rider did a good job wrapping up and letting him coast back through the field along the inside without incident.

The Blue Grass S. and the Derby have now made for two difficult races in a row for this May 11 foal by Justify ($775,000 KEESEP), who still figures to be a fighter at the upper echelon of the division given his underlying talent and the stout seasoning he's gotten over the past six weeks.

17) Jace's Road (No. 17 in TDN pre-race rankings)
'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road, a $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, was sent away from gate 10 and landed a key stalking spot sixth on the outside heading into the turn. But he couldn't hold his position, and lost touch by the half-mile marker.

“He broke sharp and I tried to hustle him but he could not keep up with the three horses in front,” said Florent Geroux. “He was not trying. Before I knew everyone started passing him.”

18) Cyclone Mischief (Unranked also-eligible in TDN pre-race rankings)
This $450,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief  broke sluggishly and was widest and last a furlong into the Derby. He zoomed by nine horses before the pack hit the first turn, but got hung out five deep on that bend and soon regressed to the tail of the field.

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1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move has the distinction of being the only Derby contender this year to run two triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures at age three, earning a 100 in each of his last two wins, the GII San Felipe S. and the GI Santa Anita Derby.

Among all the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” qualifying races in 2022-23, this Tim Yakteen trainee also produced the two fastest final clockings at 1 1/16 miles (GII Los Alamitos Futurity and San Felipe), plus the quickest nine-furlong winning time (Santa Anita Derby).

Beyond the question of “how fast,” Practical Move rates highly from a “how he does it” perspective. Regular rider Ramon Vazquez should feel pretty confident he's on a colt who has enough tactical speed to be placed within the first flight and doesn't shy from slicing through tight inside passages. Practical Move's late-race torque is a proven commodity that he's used to his advantage in three consecutive rail-running victories.

Vazquez has had only one previous Derby mount, a trip-troubled 13th in 2015 aboard the 36-1 Mr. Z.

Although Practical Move's sire, Practical Joke, was a three-time Grade I winner in New York, he never won a two-turn race (fifth in the 2017 Derby). Maternal grandsire Afleet Alex, though, ran third in the 2005 Derby, then won both the GI Preakness S. and GI Belmont S.

Practical Move | Benoit

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte sports a daunting 6-for-7 career record and he hasn't had a single training setback at age three, winning the two prep races (GII Fountain of Youth S. and GI Florida Derby) that trainer Todd Pletcher said he would target after this tall, lanky colt won last November's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Peer closely at that past-performance block though, and you can see reasons why some handicappers will be willing to bet against this son of Violence on Derby Day.

Even if you don't believe in speed figures at their face-value level, it's concerning when any horse-let alone a divisional champion-regresses in his overall pattern from age two to three. Forte ran a 100 Beyer in the Juvenile, dipped to a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, then checked in with a 95 in the Florida Derby.

That Fountain of Youth slippage might be forgiven considering Forte prowled around the track like he knew he had the field at his mercy and was geared down in the final stages when his win was evident. The Florida Derby, though, featured robust early splits (it was the only nine-furlong prep this season in which the first three quarters were all clocked in sub-24 seconds). Yet when Forte unleashed his customary late kick, it came during a so-so final quarter in :25.72 and a tepid final eighth in :13.02.

Still, you have to respect that this is an A-level athlete who simply fires on the far turn every time out.

It's also noteworthy that Forte's three most visually appealing races (GI Breeders' Futurity, Juvenile, Fountain of Youth) all came over short-stretch configurations with the finish line at or near the sixteenth pole, a setup that does not traditionally favor horses kicking in from farther back. The Derby distance and Churchill's ample stretch both have the potential to work to Forte's advantage.

Forte | Lauren King

3) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Hit Show, a 3-for-5 Candy Ride (Arg) homebred for Gary and Mary West, has the distinction of going off favored in every one of his races. His three victories were open-length romps, and his only two losses were a second by a nose in the roughly run GII Wood Memorial (after overcoming post 12) and a fourth at age two in his first try against winners (when he bobbled at the break).

Although the two horses ranked above him-Practical Move and Forte-earned their spots based on proven ability, Hit Show is more of a speculative selection based on the assumption that he'll offer significantly overlaid value while being primed to peak on Derby Day.

Hit Show is a May 9 foal. Although exact foaling date records are sketchy prior to 1940, 11 known May foals have won the Derby dating to 1875. The most recent two were Authentic in 2020 (who won a Derby that was run in September) and Country House in 2019 (who crossed the wire second but was elevated to the win because of the disqualification of Maximum Security).

4) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP), like Hit Show, also won't technically turn three until after the Derby (May 11). But he ran a “wise beyond his age” second in the GI Blue Grass S., beaten only a neck after twice clawing back the lead in a heavyweight stretch smackdown with No. 5-ranked 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice (Tapit).

This Justify colt is a half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou. Beyond the Triple Crown-winning cachet atop his pedigree, Verifying's female family includes some overlooked nuggets. Damsire Repent was a hard-charging early favorite for the 2002 Derby before getting derailed from the Triple Crown series by an ankle injury. And Repent's sire, Louis Quatorze, wired the 1996 GI Preakness S.

A decent post draw and a clean break almost certainly puts Verifying in the hunt for the lead in the Derby, an obvious plus considering eight of the past nine Derbies have been won by horses either on the front end or forcing the issue.

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice “takes a little while to get going,” according to jockey Luis Saez. But once he picks up steam, look out. He rolled to victory from off the tailgate in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby, and looked beaten on the far turn of the Blue Grass S. before relentlessly reeling in Verifying to win a length-of-stretch battle.

Tapit Trice closed with gusto through a final furlong in :12.40, the fastest final eighth in the Blue Grass since Keeneland switched back to dirt in the fall of 2014. Even more impressive is that he launched his sustained move six furlongs out, which no other competitor on the Derby trail has come close to doing this season.

This gray son of Tapit ($1.3 million at KEESEP) has come around horses in all four of his victories. But his wide-and-driving tactics, combined with his propensity for dawdling at the break, could work against him in a 20-horse Derby.

Even though the two are built differently, consider a comparison to Essential Quality, another 'Rising Star' gray who was favored in the 2021 Derby and also ridden by Saez.

The juvenile champ went into the Derby undefeated after similarly making big, outside moves. Like Tapit Trice, Essential Quality's final prep was the Blue Grass, and it, too, featured a demanding stretch duel through the previously fastest Blue Grass final eighth in the new-dirt era (:12.53).

In the Derby, Essential Quality got off slowly, then Saez kept him four wide on both turns in an effort to avoid getting jammed inside. The colt rallied, but his fourth-place try lacked the spark of previous tries. The tough last prep didn't help him, and the lost ground definitely hurt him. Essential Quality skipped the GI Preakness. S., then won the GI Belmont S., GII Jim Dandy S. and GI Travers S. in succession.

Regardless of whether you think that sort history will repeat with Tapit Trice, you at least have to factor in those tactical similarities when assessing whether or not banking on a closer who gives himself so much extra work to do is a sound bet in a crowded, chaotic race like the Derby.

Tapit Trice | Coady

6) SKINNER (c, Curlin-Winding Way, by Malibu Moon) O-C R K Stable; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-John Shirreffs. Sales history: $40,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $510,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 6-1-0-3, $216,300. Last start: 3rd GI Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Skinner still needs two defections to make the qualifying cut. But I can see him emerging as a “wiseguy” horse at over 30-1 if he gets in.
To arrive at that conclusion, you have to buy into the benefits of the patient, confidence-building training methodology of John Shirreffs, and basically put a line through Skinner's uninspiring race results at age two.

Instead, focus on his progression at age three, which includes a mile maiden win followed by a pair of thirds over increasing distances behind No. 1-ranked Practical Move, the latter punctuated by a purposeful, three-furlong late kick.

All three efforts generated strong Beyers (95-94-99) that leave room for improvement. There's also the been-there-done that factor, based on John Shirreffs's 50-1 Derby upset with Giacomo in 2005, and jockey Victor Espinoza's three Derby wins with War Emblem (2002), California Chrome (2014) and American Pharoah (2015).

7) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

This 3-for-3 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) projected to control the tempo in the GII Louisiana Derby, and he did just that, leading at every call through very moderate fractions (:24.71, 49.50, 1:14.69, 1:39.13) and light pressure. The effort earned a 95 Beyer, a decent number despite the 1:57.33 clocking for 1 3/16 miles being the slowest in four years since that stakes got elongated from nine furlongs.

Still, the win represents capable advancement through only 10 weeks of racing experience, and the overall trend for the undefeated Kingsbarns shows no regression (74-85-95 Beyers). Beyond what he's shown on paper, this is a no-nonsense colt who goes about his business without drama, and he's already handled shipping to and racing over three very different dirt surfaces (Gulfstream, Tampa, Fair Grounds).

Only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby: Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924.

8) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Reincarnate is a glass half empty/half full proposition. Winless since his Jan. 8 GIII Sham S., his Beyers share a similar in-decline pattern over three races as Forte's (95-90-86), and his no-impact third in the Arkansas Derby doesn't supply much next-race momentum.
Yet this long-striding $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic has never been out of the money from seven starts, all at a mile or longer, and he gives the impression of a contender who should be finishing better than his running lines suggest.

Jockey John Velazquez said three months ago that Reincarnate was “still learning how to run” and tended to wait on other horses once he made the lead. His speed-centric style should give him the advantage of being forwardly placed and potentially ahead of trip trouble in the Derby, but you'd better hold out for a sizable mutuel before banking on that investment.

9) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 3rd in the GIII Lexington S. at Keeneland Apr. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 46.

All that 'TDN Rising Star' Disarm had to do in Saturday's GIII Lexington S. was run third to secure the six qualifying points that would put him into the Derby, and jockey Jose Ortiz made sure the colt did just that. Unless it was obvious this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred was going to blow by the field under his own power, everyone knew going into the race there would be no sense in asking Disarm for too strenuous an effort in the interest of keeping him fresh for May 6.

Disarm broke okay then was briefly squeezed back entering the first turn. The momentum loss wasn't serious, and he took up the chase seventh onto the backstretch, incrementally edging his way toward the top by the time the field hit the far turn.

Disarm responded when asked for a test-drive spurt of energy that propelled him to third at the top of the lane. But Ortiz realized he wasn't going to catch the dueling duo up front (especially with Keeneland's short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles ending at the sixteenth pole), so he wisely kept Disarm to task just enough win the “race within the race,” securing show by three-quarters of a length.

No wins at age three and having never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles aren't ideal. But those circumstances were dictated by Disarm having been out of action between August and February. A bet on him in the Derby is essentially a wager that his Gun Runner (out of a Tapit mare) bloodlines are going to put him over the top at 10 furlongs.

10) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Trainer Brad Cox has secured the services of jockey Flavien Prat to ride Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) in the Derby. Prat, currently tops in the nation with 15 graded stakes wins in 2023, had piloted both Angel of Empire and No. 7-ranked Kingsbarns in their respective final preps.

Prat has ridden in five Derbies and finished in the money four times. In 2019 he rode Country House, who was declared the 65-1 winner via disqualification of Maximum Security. Prat was also third at 40-1 with Battle of Midway in 2017, second with Hot Rod Charlie at 5-1 in 2021, and third with Zandon at 6-1 in 2022.

Angel of Empire is 4-for-6 lifetime and at his best when given front-end targets to track down. Although his GII Risen Star S. win (89 Beyer) could be attributed him benefitting from a pace meltdown, this colt's Oaklawn score (94 Beyer) was noticeably more assertive, with this Pennsylvania-bred decisively overpowering the pacemaker.

Angel of Empire | Coady

11) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

Two Phil's ($150,000 RNA KEESEP), the 101-Beyer winner of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, is 4-for-8 closer/stalker who rates highly in terms of versatility and adaptability.

Off as the 2.8-1 second choice in the Jeff Ruby, Two Phil's broke alertly, rated kindly, then was content to be parked outside while sixth down the backstretch. He gathered momentum four deep through the far turn, then shadowed the favorite as the two jointly accosted the pacemaker at the head of the stretch. Two Phil's deftly shrugged off the fave, then chugged for the wire under his own power, with no one seriously challenging.

But this son of Hard Spun does own a 5 1/4-length win at 7-1 odds over a sloppy, sealed Churchill dirt track in the Oct. 30 GIII Street Sense S., which could mean his connections will be doing a rain dance come Derby week.

Two Phil's | Coady

12) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

Mage, who celebrates a birthday Apr. 18, is still without a committed Derby rider as of this writing. This son of Good Magic popped with an encouraging second in the Florida Derby, launching a big, far-turn bid, repulsing a stern stretch drive from the eventual third-place horse, but still being no match for the vastly more experienced winner Forte.

The conundrum facing Derby bettors centers on whether that 94-Beyer improvement represents the ceiling for Mage or if it is just a sneak preview of a higher phase of his development.

Mage's company lines from his Jan. 28 MSW win at Gulfstream got a boost over the weekend. The runner- up in that race, Bourbon Resolve (Hard Spun) came back to win a MSW route at Keeneland as the favorite.

The fourth-place finisher, Perform (Good Magic), who had already won his subsequent start at 7-10 odds at Tampa back on Mar. 11, won again at Laurel, capturing the Federico Tesio S. by a head at 10-1 odds.

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate:

13) Lord Miles
Lord Miles (Curlin) broke his maiden by 5 ¾ lengths sprinting at Gulfstream. Then he ran third in the one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man S., beaten only three-quarters of a length. Stretched out to two turns to take advantage of his stout, female-family bloodlines (A.P. Indy, Seeking the Gold), Lord Miles then drew the rail in both the GIII Holy Bull S. and the Tampa Bay Derby, encountering trouble at the start on both occasions while sixth and fifth. He was bumped at the break in the Wood Memorial too, but overcame it to force the issue, drop back, then re-rally to charge home to a $120 victory in a roughly ridden, three-way stretch fight.

14) Derma Sotogake (Jpn)
When Derma Sotogake (Jpn) wired the G2 UAE Derby, it marked the first group winner for Mind Your Biscuits, the Grade I and Group 1-winning sprinter from five or six years back whose last stateside triumph was a successful stretch-out to nine furlongs in the 2018 GIII Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs. This ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL yearling orchestrated a comfortable, 5 1?2-length score in that 1 3/16-miles Meydan stakes, leading home a Japan-based 1-2-3-4 finish. Since 2000, 12 winners of the UAE Derby have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby, and the best finish among them was sixth (along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try). But times are changing, as Japanese horses are increasingly stamping themselves as worthy global competitors at racing's top levels. Getting too mired in past results might be a mistake in prognosticating how Derma Sotogake will fare in this year's edition.

15) Rocket Can
After Rocket Can (Into Mischief) ran a lackluster fourth as the beaten fave in the Arkansas Derby, trainer Bill Mott surmised that this $245,000 FTSAUG RNA gray has the ability to do better, but “he's just not quite giving it all” yet. A bullet half-mile over the Churchill strip in :46.60 (1/34) last Thursday might be a step toward bringing about an attitude adjustment, but Rocket Can is generally a sharp work horse anyway, having routinely posted bullets at Payson Park over the winter. He has five route races leading up to the Derby, and he earned style points in most of them as a punch-above-his-weight type of stalker. But the poorest try among them was over nine furlongs at Oaklawn, leading to realistic concerns about whether 10 furlongs will be within his scope. Churchill does seem to be Rocket Can's preferred surface. He broke his maiden there back on Oct. 30 and was second, beaten just a half-length, in a Nov. 26 allowance.

16) Sun Thunder
Trainer Kenny McPeek described Sun Thunder as a Derby “fringe horse” in a Daily Racing Form interview last week, and that label fits. This late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) was fourth, 6 ½ lengths off Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass S. He still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks, but he's run second, fourth (twice), and fifth in graded stakes against decent company through a winter/spring campaign. He is going to need help both pace-wise and trip-wise in the Derby while also having to find at least another 14 or 15 points on the Beyer scale to be in it to win it (he's twice maxxed out at 89).

17) Jace's Road
Prior to last Saturday, Jace's Road barely made the qualifying cutoff. But Disarm's six-points third in the Lexington S. knocked him back onto the also-eligible list. A $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, this colt ran a non-threatening third in the Louisiana Derby, and the best race on his résumé is still the 90-Beyer Dec. 26 wiring of the Gun Runner S. Jace's Road's status as an early 'TDN Rising Star' whose form has taken a hit reminds me a little bit of fellow Brad Cox trainee Mandaloun, who was also a 'Rising Star' and had a subpar final prep in the 2021 Louisiana Derby. Mandaloun reawakened with a 26-1 second in the Kentucky Derby, then subsequently was upgraded to the win because of the still-under-appeal drug DQ of Medina Spirit.

18) Confidence Game
Confidence Game, the 18-1 upsetter of the Rebel S., registered a 94-Beyer win by getting third run at wilting leaders. This $25,000 KEESEP Candy Ride (Arg) colt was initially slated for one more prep, but in March trainer Keith Desormeaux said it took Confidence Game “a little longer than usual to recover.” There was speculation he'd enter this past Saturday's Lexington S., but he instead breezed a mile from the gate on Friday in 1:38.20 (1/1). Now Confidence Game will head to the Derby off a 70-day layoff and never having run beyond 1 1/16 miles. Since 1929 (the advent of complete records), the longest winning layoff for a regularly scheduled Derby in May was 42 days, equaled by Needles (1956) and Animal Kingdom (2011).

19) Continuar (Jpn)
The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) was third and beaten 10 lengths by Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby. In their three common races, Derma Sotogake now has two wins over Continuar (the other was by a nose in a Nov. 6 handicap at Hanshin). Derma Sotogake was also third ahead of Continuar (fifth) in the G3 Saudi Derby. This ¥70,000,000 JRHJUL yearling's most recent victory was in the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26. Stateside fans will recall his sire, Drefong, as the Bob Baffert-trained champion sprinter in 2016.

20) Wild On Ice
Every Derby needs a massive, small-circuit-based longshot as a rooting interest, and Wild On Ice (Tapizar) fits the bill this year. The 35-1 winner of the GIII Sunland Derby in New Mexico has 60-year-old jockey Ken Tohill poised to become the oldest rider ever to compete in the Kentucky Derby. In the Sunland Derby, this Texas-bred homebred for Frank Sumpter stalked two front-running favorites who had shipped in from Santa Anita, and when the invaders dueled themselves into defeat, Wild On Ice opportunistically picked up the pieces for a 77-Beyer, 1 ¼-length score.

Note: Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) was ranked at No. 11 here last week but has now dropped to the 25th spot in qualifying points. Because of his diminished chances at making it into the main body of the race, he got relegated out of the TDN Top 20. Two horses who are currently inside the qualifying cut–Raise Cain (Violence) and Blazing Sevens (Good Magic)–are also not listed in this week's write-up.

The post TDN Derby Top 20: The Waiting is the Hardest Part appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Jockey James Graham began his mount's training session by breaking inside of an unraced 3-year-old workmate. Around the far-turn, after the Derby hopeful completed five furlongs in 1:00.20, fellow stablemate Giant Awakening (Mor Spirit) was waiting for him around the 5 1/2 furlong pole. Running in concert, Confidence Game finished his work around the sixteenth pole and galloped out an extra quarter mile.

“At first when I looked at the final time, I was a little disappointed,” Desormeaux said. “Then I got back to the barn and went through the splits and I had a renewed sense of confidence–for a lack of a better term. He really started to pick it up late in the work even when he went fast early during the work. The gate works at Churchill are timed when the doors open so if you take into account that during a race there is a little bit of a run-up before the timer starts, he worked really well. I was definitely looking to get a lot of out of the work and I think we accomplished that. He needed it.”

Owned by Don't Tell My Wife Stables and Ocean Reef Racing, the GII Rebel S. victor completed splits of :24.60, :36, :47.80, 1:00.20, 1:13 and 1:25.60, with a gallop out of 1 1/4 lengths in 2:05.80. Desormeaux opted to bypass Saturday's GIII Lexington S. at Keeneland to train up for the Derby and said the colt would likely work back next Saturday.

Confidence Game with a serious one-mile move in 1:38.20 from the gate. #KyDerby pic.twitter.com/QSCpkBTQne

— Kevin Kerstein (@HorseRacingKK) April 14, 2023

Rich Strike Looks To Return Soon

RED TR-Racing's Rich Strike (Keen Ice) continued to prepare for his 2023 debut by working five furlongs in :59.80 early Friday morning over a fast track at Keeneland for trainer Eric Reed.

With Gabriel Lagunes aboard, the 2022 GI Kentucky Derby champ posted fractions of :23.80, :47.80, :59.80 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:13.40.

“Gabe said he was perfect this morning and worked the way he did before the Derby,” Reed said of Rich Strike, who is nominated to the 92nd running of Keeneland's GIII Ben Ali S. on Apr. 22. “I want to get him as tight as I can before his first time out against horses that have been running. If all goes well, that will point him for the GI Stephen Foster.”

Reed said the Ben Ali is in the mix for the 2023 debut along with next Saturday's GII Oaklawn H. and GII Alysheba S. at Churchill on May 5.

“I'll talk it over with [owner] Rick [Dawson] the next couple of days,” Reed said. “The Alysheba is probably the most likely spot. He would work again in nine or 10 days, and it would be at Churchill Downs.”

The post Confidence Game Works, Rich Strike Preps For Return appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move leapfrogs into the No. 1 spot because his well-executed GI Santa Anita Derby score (100 Beyer Speed Figure) asserts him as the no-nonsense “momentum” horse heading to Louisville. In winning the strongest of the three nine-furlong preps run Saturday, this son of Practical Joke ($90,000 RNA KEESEP; $230,000 OBSAPR) pressured the field into submission, and he has not yet indicated he is close to bottoming out, stamina-wise. His stay-in-touch stalking style and obvious comfort level at being covered up on the inside are highly desirable traits for a Derby contender.

Practical Move won the two fastest 1 1/16-miles Derby qualifying stakes in 2022-23 (1:41.65 in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity and 1:42.01 GII San Felipe S.). His winning time of 1:48.69 in the Santa Anita Derby is also quickest of all the nine-furlong preps.

Unhurried at the break, jockey Ramon Vazquez secured an inside run behind a blazing :22.30 opening quarter in the Santa Anita Derby. He chipped away at the margin down the backstretch, and for the third graded stakes in a row, Practical Move rode the rail to menace the pacemaker. Seizing the lead while still in hand before the quarter pole, the even-money Practical Move then fended off a determined Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) to win by a nose while keeping a wide-and-driving Skinner comfortably at bay a half-length back in third.

Practical Move has yet to display an overdriven “Wow!” gear late in the lane. But being able to crank up the torque without being flashy about it can certainly earn a blanket of roses on Derby day.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star' . O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) goes into the Derby as the East Coast kingpin and reigning divisional champ. But while Practical Move ended his prep season with an exclamation point, Forte's final prep resonated more like a question mark, because at 1-5 odds he was expected to deliver a shellacking to s soft-on-paper GI Florida Derby field.

Yes, this son of Violence did win with his ears pricked after giving himself too much work to do. And his loping, 4 ½-furlong move did not come at the expense of jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., having to drill this colt in order to power past the pesky Mage (Good Magic). Five-sixteenths out, Forte looked beaten. But once he got rolling, Forte uncoiled on cue, giving off a “Don't worry, I've got this!” vibe to win by a measured length.

The 20-horse Derby will be different. It was a tactical revelation to hear Ortiz say post-race that “We went to the first turn and those horses cleared me and I said, 'Oh my God.' I thought he could clear them and he didn't do it.”

Forte just might have the most devastating late-race kick in the Derby. But if he can't attain good early positioning, he won't have a stable launching pad to set up his proven far-turn run.

3) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Three horses were bobbing heads at the wire of the GII Wood Memorial. Although this homebred for Gary and Mary West ended up second, he ran the best race in terms of boosting his chances in the Derby.

This Candy Ride (Arg) colt went off as the 17-10 favorite, and although he didn't challenge for the lead from post 12, he was in the hunt five wide on the clubhouse bend before taking up a stalking spot while fifth, about five lengths off a moderate first two quarters in :24.88 and :24.12.

The cadence quickened through a :23.88 third quarter, and Hit Show was on the prowl three deep through the turn. He was bottled up off the bend, had to be switched off the heels in upper stretch, then both gave and took some light slam-dancing while sparring in the middle of a three-way go through the final furlong.

The hedge here is that this May 9 foal can build off that effort, especially when you consider Hit Show has already won at nine furlongs (in the GIII Withers. S.). In addition, his Beyers show a nice, ascending arc of 60-71-82-91-93 through five career tries.

4) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP), a Justify colt who will not hit his third birthdate until five days after the Derby, picked a stellar time to run his breakthrough “coming out” race when second, beaten a nose, in the GI Blue Grass S.

A half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou, Verifying broke forwardly but conceded the lead to an 86-1 sacrificial pacemaker. Tyler Gaffalione let that long shot roll onto the back straight while sitting second with his 2.3-1 mount, then tightened that open-length gap 5 ½ furlongs out.

Cognizant of 'TDN Rising Star' and 1.2-1 favorite Tapit Trice (Tapit) making a bold move to his outside, Verifying took control at the five-sixteenths pole. Gaffalione braced for the quarter-pole challenge of Tapit Trice by deftly floating that favorite out to the five path.

The two then threw down in a length-of-stretch slugfest that included some inconsequential bumping and brushing, with Verifying twice clawing back the lead before Tapit Trice snatched it away by a neck at the wire. The two co-earned 99 Beyers.

Verifying has won twice, but never at the stakes level. He had enough speed to break his maiden over six furlongs at the Spa last summer, and also took down a key-race allowance going a mile at Oaklawn in January, out of which the second- and  third-place horses came back to win their next starts as favorites.

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

Tapit Trice would not be denied in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. | Coady Photography

There's a good chance 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is evolving into a powerhouse with a knack for extricating himself from tight predicaments and finding a way to win at all costs.

But his slow-to-go nature marks this son of Tapit as a “heart attack” type of horse who scares the daylights out of his backers by constantly having to be pumped on for run by rider Luis Saez before he accomplishes his task by only as much as it takes to win narrowly.

That was the way Tapit Trice scored in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby (a crew that will not yield any other Kentucky Derby qualifiers), and it was a similar story in Saturday's tougher Blue Grass S.

After hustling this burly gray from the one post, Saez had to throttle back before the field passed the mile marker. The colt settled to seventh entering the backstretch, got guided outside, and was already on the march six furlongs from the wire.

Tapit Trice was jointly third by the half-mile pole, and as the lead changed in front of him, he went relentlessly after Verifying off the turn. They raced in lockstep while exchanging love taps and the lead, but Tapit Trice had more at the finish.

Despite the victory, the overall takeaway is that Tapit Trice's loop-the-group tactics simply don't align with the profiles of recent Derby winners. Eight of the last nine Derbies have been won by horses racing either right up front or just off the lead. Thus, despite winning his last two stakes in respectable, off-the-tailgate fashion, Tapit Trice takes a haircut in the rankings, dropping from third to fifth.

6) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

This 3-for-3 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) led at every call through moderate fractions to win the GII Louisiana Derby (95 Beyer) by 3 ½ lengths.

Although light on experience race-wise, Kingsbarns is developing a businesslike, no-drama demeanor. Ranked by foaling date (Jan. 17), he's also the oldest of the Top 20 competitors.

This colt doesn't necessarily need the lead. But this Todd Pletcher trainee is in his comfort zone either setting the pace or forcing the issue from just behind the leaders.

He's also already checked the “overcomes adversity” box. As the 3-1 favorite in his one-turn-mile Gulfstream debut, Kingsbarns was unbothered by being smothered at the rail in tight quarters on the turn. He later got blocked badly at the head of the lane before coming up with a decisive, punch-through run that resulted in a 1 3/4-length victory (74 Beyer).

Race number two didn't require as much effort, but it was useful. In a mile and 40 yards first-level allowance at Tampa, Kingsbarns let a 37-1 shot open up a long lead, then reeled him in with ease to finish 7 ¾ lengths ahead of the pack (85 Beyer).

7) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Reincarnate hasn't been to the winner's circle since his Jan. 8 GIII Sham S. score, and his Beyers are drifting in the wrong direction at age three (95-90-86). But I wouldn't discount him as a rebounding, front-end factor in the Derby.

This large-framed, long-striding $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic has never been off the board from seven starts, all at a mile or longer.

Reincarnate has twice flown to Oaklawn since Feb. 25 rom his Santa Anita training base, running third in both the GII Rebel S. (with a troubled trip) and the GI Arkansas Derby (ideal stalking setup but failed to fire).

At somewhere in the 25-1 range, I'd have a hard time excluding Reincarnate from Derby exotics, although his lack of a positive-momentum final prep precludes keying on him to win.

8) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Disarm is the highest-ranked Top 20 contender who is outside looking in, points-wise. He's currently parked at No. 26 on the qualifying list with 40 points and needs help from defectors.

This Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred rates so highly because it's unlikely we've seen his best effort at age three. Whether his prime-time bust-out comes 3 ½ weeks from now in the Derby or 3 ½ months from now as a later developer is the question.

Remember, his sire, Gun Runner, ran third as the 2016 Derby, finished on the board in a series of graded stakes into the summer and fall, but didn't burst onto the scene until after the Breeders' Cup, when he won the GI Clark H. (and seven of his eight final races against top-class competition).

Disarm has been at a tactical disadvantage trying to pull back lone-speed pacemakers twice in 2023, first in an allowance at Oaklawn Feb. 19, and again, with inside trip trouble, in the Louisiana Derby.

9) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Angel of Empire dominated the GI Arkansas Derby | Coady Photography

Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) sails into the Derby off back-to-back, come-from-behind wins at nine furlongs in the GII Risen Star S. (89 Beyer) and Arkansas Derby (94 Beyer). This two-time sales entrant ($32,000 RNA KEENOV; $70,000 KEESEP) will seek to become the third Pennsylvania-bred to win the Derby, after Lil E. Tee (1992) and Smarty Jones (2004).

“I think he's capable of winning [the Derby],” trainer Brad Cox said on the Apr. 6 TDN Writers' Room podcast. “We have to get better and we may have to have Forte stub his toe in order to beat him. But 20-horse field, it's a demanding, challenging race, bottom line. If you make the field that's why you go, so many things can happen.”

10) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

If you discount his rough-trip fifth debuting at five furlongs way back on June 23 and his seventh behind Forte in the key-race GI Breeders' Futurity S.(when Two Phil's got bounced around at the break), this is a colt with four wins (two at Grade III) and a second and third in two other graded stakes.

His 101-Beyer score in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks was a sizable 15-point jump off his previous effort in the Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. That's a stout number, but it's so far removed from his normal range that it leads to speculation about whether triple digits on the Beyer scale are sustainable for Two Phil's.

Versatility and a “do your job” attitude are the twin strengths of Two Phil's. He's won sprinting and routing over fast dirt, slop and now Tapeta, and you have to admire how he's been in it to win it at least until the upper stretch every time he's raced.

11) MANDARIN HERO (JPN) (c, Shanghai Bobby–Namura Nadeshiko {Jpn}, by Fuji Kiseki {Jpn}) O-Hiroaki Arai; B-Hirano Bokujo (Jpn); T-Terunobu Fujita. Lifetime Record: GISP, 6-4-2-0, $386,854. Last start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby), victorious in four of five starts in Japan (only loss by a neck), popped with an impressive 8-1 runner-up try in the Santa Anita Derby. But the 40 qualifying points he garnered (24th) are still shy of a certain Derby berth.

His sharp United States debut would have been good enough to win the Santa Anita Derby in most years. Mandarin Hero broke fifth, tucked into the two path around the first turn, then had to wait for room into the far turn. Committed to inside passage by jockey Kazushi Kimura, he patiently waited some more, then dove through at the fence off the turn.

In upper stretch Mandarin Hero had his momentum briefly stalled as Kimura repositioned him off the favorite's heels. But Mandarin Hero still maintained his focus on Practical Move even while a fresh rival, Skinner (Curlin), was bearing down outside. This colt was getting to the winner; they were separated by a nose and co-earned 100 Beyers.

12) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

The eye-catching, far-turn move by Mage ($235,000 KEESEP; $290,000 EASMAY) was slightly premature in the Florida Derby. But it catapulted him to the lead, and he showed he knew what to do to defend his position once he hit the front, sharply repulsing a bid from the more experienced Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief).

All the while Forte was taking dead aim. Even though this son of Good Magic had little left to stave off the 1-5 fave, Mage's effort still rates as impressive considering his lack of seasoning (just three races) and the fact that that no horse has finished that close to the champ in three other races over the last six months.

If a Forte-vs.-Mage rivalry continues to percolate, you can trace it back to a grudge match their dams started. Mage is out of the Bill Mott-trained Puca, who won her only stakes race in a $75,000 turfer at Suffolk Downs in 2017. She scored by 1 ¾ lengths over the Michael Matz-trained Queen Caroline, who would go on to foal Forte.

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate..

13) Skinner (Curlin)
Skinner ($40,000 KEESEP; $510,000 OBSAPR) stamped himself as an outside Louisville threat who figures to be flying under the radar, odds-wise. In the Santa Anita Derby, this noticeably maturing son of Curlin broke well but was asked to settle second from last by Victor Espinoza. Skinner started to pick off midpack targets with a purposeful move three-eighths out, then swung four wide for the drive. He briefly brushed with a tiring 54-1 shot, dug in, and stayed on decently. Skinner ended up beaten half a length by Practical Move and Mandarin Hero, earning a 99 Beyer that leaves room for improvement. Trainer John Shirreffs orchestrated Giacomo's 50-1 Kentucky Derby win in 2005 off a fourth-place try in the Santa Anita Derby. At No. 21 on the qualifying list, Skinner needs one defection to make the cut.

14) Lord Miles (Curlin)
Lord Miles outran his 59-1 odds in a shocker of a score in the Wood Memorial. Is he a one-race wonder, or just starting to blossom? He broke forwardly, pressed the pacemaker, then backed off to fourth on the back straight. It looked for a few strides like he was starting to lose touch into the far bend, but Paco Lopez got him going again, and by the head of the lane this Vesgo Racing Stable homebred was hunkered down and not at all deterred by the rambunctious jostling of a furious three-way stretch battle. He won the bob at the finish by a nose, and the win represented a 14-point Beyer jump from 79 to 93. Realistically, this year's Derby projects to require a triple-digit Beyer to win, meaning Lord Miles must deliver another lifetime best against the toughest competition and over the longest distance of his career.

15) Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits)
Derma Sotogake wired the G2 UAE Derby. But that doesn't necessarily mean this ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL yearling will be committed to seeking the lead in the Derby. “We didn't exactly plan to go straight to the lead but he broke well,” said trainer Hidetaka Otonashi. Added jockey Christophe Lemaire, “He can break a little slowly [but he] travelled nicely on the lead and he relaxed for me down the backstretch. He was still moving smoothly for me as we came into the home stretch and once I pressed the button he was very impressive and I could enjoy the finish on him.” The first four horses across the finish barely changed positions for the bulk of that race, although Derma Sotogake cracked them all while still in hand before widening his margin under light encouragement.

16) Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg})
This $25,000 KEESEP colt whose dam, Eblouissante, is a half-sister to Hall-of-Famer Zenyatta is listed as “possible” by Keeneland for the GIII Lexington S. on Saturday. Confidence Game does not need qualifying points to attain a Derby berth, so the 1 1/16-miles prep would serve as a true tune-up effort. Otherwise he'd be heading to Louisville off a 10-week gap since his 94-Beyer win in the Rebel S., a wide-and-driving score that was aided by a pace meltdown.

17) Rocket Can (Into Mischief)
This Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) safely qualifies with 60 points  and is already stabled at Churchill, but his Derby status hasn't been solidified. He was a punchless fourth as the beaten fave in the Arkansas Derby, after which trainer Bill Mott said Rocket Can “gives you the feeling there's a little more there, but he's just not quite giving it all to you yet.” This colt proved late at age two and early into his sophomore season that he can capably stalk to stay within striking distance of leaders, and he doesn't shy from stretch fights. After winning the GIII Holy Bull S. back on Feb. 4, Rocket Can was a best-of-the-rest second behind divisional champ Forte. But he still hasn't made the convincing leap in Beyers, regressing from a 91 in the GII Fountain of Youth S. to an 86 at Oaklawn.

18) Sun Thunder (Into Mischief)
This late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) has a second, two fourths, and a fifth in graded stakes this year, and his 54 qualifying points are enough for a Derby berth. But trainer Ken McPeek was undecided on his starting status as of Sunday, the day after Sun Thunder ran 6 ½ lengths off the winner in the Blue Grass S. Sun Thunder still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks, but his Dec. 31 Oaklawn score was a capable effort despite minor trip trouble. His company lines aren't soft either; he caught some peaking horses earlier in the winter and was up against the grain of a speed-rewarding track on Louisiana Derby day.

19) Jace's Road (Quality Road)
'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road barely makes the cut as one of three horses currently tied with 45 qualifying points. He enjoys a $25,850 advantage in non-restricted stakes earnings, which is the tiebreaker. A $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, he faded to third in the late stages of the Louisiana Derby after pressing (but never truly threatening) all-the-way winner Kingsbarns. He took moderate pressure without any quit when wiring the Dec. 26 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, but has been winless in two starts since.

20) Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong)
The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) accepted an invitation to Churchill for earning 40 points in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series when he won the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26. At age three, this ¥70,000,000 JRHJUL yearling was fifth in the G3 Saudi Derby. He then improved to third in the UAE Derby, but he was still beaten 10 lengths by winner Derma Sotogake after stalking that pacemaker until the home straight. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi is best known stateside for his two winners in the 2021 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar: Marche Lorraine (Jpn) at 49-1 in the GI Distaff and Loves Only You (Jpn) at 4-1 in the GI Filly and Mare Turf.

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William “Billy” Paytner, who heads the Ocean Reef syndicate, would not disclose the percentage that was purchased, but said that it was less than 50% and that Don't Tell My Wife will remain the principal owner.

“Although I split my time between Versailles and Key Largo, I'm a Louisville native, so I'm over the moon,” Paynter said. “Our stable has only been in racing for about three years and never in a million years did I think we could have a horse in the Derby in our first three years. I can't even imagine what might happen. I'm going to be a nervous wreck until they come out of the starting gate on Derby day. It's very exciting for myself, my family and all my partners. It gives me goose bumps just thinking about it.”

“We are thrilled that Billy and his partners at Ocean Reef Racing have joined us on this amazing ride with Confidence Game, and look forward to going on this exciting journey with them,” said Don't Tell My Wife's Kirk Godby. “It was just five years ago that we had My Boy Jack run in the Derby and it's truly incredible to be back again. All the credit goes to trainer Keith Desormeaux, though, who continues to prove his elite horsemanship in buying young horses and getting them to this level. I can't thank him enough.”

When it comes to the Derby, Confidence Game was flying under the radar until he pulled off the upset in the Rebel at 18-1. With James Graham aboard, he won by a length. The Ocean Reef team noticed the effort and was soon in touch with Godby.

“I knew Kirk from Fort Worth through some business connections when I went to SMU business school,” Paynter said. “We liked the Candy Ride side of his pedigree and that he's out of a Bernardini mare, Eblouissante. Eblouissante is a half-sister to Zenyatta. But it wasn't even a thought until the Rebel. That race weighed heavily on our decision. There were the wet conditions and how he won and galloped out. That was very impressive. They have a pretty good track record. This is their second Derby horse and they were in the Oaks last year [with Candy Raid]. I haven't gotten to know Keith Desormeaux yet, but I am looking forward to racing with him. He obviously has a good track record.”

Paynter said the stable has been trying to focus on buying more expensive horses, but having a horse in the Derby was not necessarily a goal.

“At the level we've been buying at, we thought getting to the Derby was a possibility, but it never crosses your mind until it actually happens,” he said. “To be honest, we didn't expect to have a Derby horse. This is one of those pinch yourself moments.”

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1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is the kingpin colt among the sophomores who switched out of trainer Bob Baffert's barn over the past week and into the care of Baffert's former assistant from two decades ago, Tim Yakteen. The transition was necessitated by a Churchill Downs ban on Baffert trainees that prohibits them from accruing qualifying points or racing in the Derby while under Baffert's control.

Top-ranked on this list since the outset of the season, this intimidatingly speedy, sales-topping son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR) is being aimed for either the GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 1 or the GI Santa Anita Derby one week later.

Staying home at Santa Anita means being able to race out of his own stall there. But shipping hasn't adversely affected either of his on-the-road wins, and Arabian Knight showed he can absolutely devour a wet Oaklawn racetrack if that condition arises again.

That last victory was a thorough shellacking of an overmatched field in the GIII Southwest S. in Hot Springs Jan. 28, in which Arabian Knight earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure while dominating the tempo and not being throttled for maximum output.

Arabian Knight has only had one published workout since that win, a three-furlong move at Santa Anita back on Feb. 13, though there have been no recorded breezes of any variety since Feb. 23 owing to a rare winter storm.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 5-4-0-0,  $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) will have a figurative target on his back in Saturday's GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. It's his 2023 debut off a four-month layoff, and he drew post four as the 7-5 morning line favorite.

Somewhat surprisingly, this 'TDN Rising Star' by Violence didn't go off favored in any of the three Grade I victories that closed out his juvenile campaign, although he was the chalk in both his May 27 debut win at Belmont (7 3/4 lengths) and in start number two, a fourth-place try in the GII Sanford S. at Saratoga.

Yet this colt's trio of Grade I wins in the Hopeful S., Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S., and Breeders' Cup Juvenile each revealed new tactical dimensions, and Forte's knack of being able to essentially pick his own positioning before reliably firing a big shot off the far turn is a skill that a number of his competitors still haven't mastered. Watching the leggy, athletic Forte target and reel in horses without flinching from stretch fights whets the appetite for what he might be able to deliver on a two-prep path to Louisville.

But longer-term statistical trends could be stumbling blocks: as for this Saturday, be aware that favorites have lost 12 of the last 16 editions of the Fountain of Youth. Widening the lens to take in 38 years of Breeders' Cup history, only two colts (Nyquist and Street Sense) have parlayed wins in the Juvenile into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is headed for the Mar. 11 GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby for start number four.

His Nov. 6 debut at Aqueduct was a better-than-it-looks learning experience based on his fast-closing third. This colt's Dec. 17 MSW win, also at Aqueduct, rated as an eye-opener because of his unfazed attitude after brushing, bumping and running down a rival in a deep-stretch mud fight. But it was the over-the-top nature of Tapit Trice's gaudy, eight-length allowance pummeling at Gulfstream on Feb. 4 (92 Beyer) that stamped his Kentucky Derby aspirations as realistic and achievable.

This $1.3-million KEESEP son of Tapit still needs to hone his early-race skills by overcoming lackadaisical breaks from the gate. But as the distances increase and he gains experience against larger fields, those are the types of developmental concerns that seasoning can melt away like the spring thaw.

This year, the Tampa Bay Derby has been downgraded from Grade II to III. Part of that demotion had to do with the race's recent trend of well-meant favorites being no-shows while the long-shot winners went on to be low-impact factors in subsequent stakes.

Although the 4-5 choice Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) won Tampa's big race last year, the previous four Tampa Derbies were won by harder-to-figure horses at odds of 15-1, 49-1, 8-1 and 19-1.

4) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., Feb. 4. KY Derby Points: 20

As the co-fourth choice on the morning line for Saturday's Fountain of Youth S., Rocket Can isn't facing the same scrutiny or pressure as race favorite and divisional champ Forte. But this Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) will still be under the gun to prove his GIII Holy Bull S. score was no fluke, and he needs to shrug off the stigma of having relatively low speed figures compared to other top Derby hopefuls.

Rocket Can has plateaued with 82 Beyers in his last two starts on Nov. 26 and Feb. 4. But as discussed in previous editions of this list, his efforts rate considerably higher from a “how he did it” visual perspective. He gave up ground on both turns of the Holy Bull while always within three lengths of the leaders, and when he commandeered the lead off the final turn of that short-stretch configuration, Rocket Can finished focused through the lane while chased home by a tenacious stablemate.

Over the same 1 1/16-mile setup that starts close to the first turn and ends at the sixteenth pole, look for jockey Junior Alvarado to try and execute a follow-the-favorite strategy on Saturday, a tactic that should be a smooth fit for this colt's capable stalking style.

5) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock, who races with his head slung low in a style that evokes his sire still merits a strong foothold within the Top 12 despite the certainty that he'll be the last colt on this list to make his first sophomore start.

Powerful and promising at age two, this physically imposing dual sales grad ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) detonated a 104 Beyer in his two-turn debut, the GI American Pharoah S., while never being fully extended.

But in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he got hot and bothered pre-race, then had trouble settling when trying to clear an irrationally exuberant 70-1 shot through a :22.90 opening quarter. Cave Rock seized the lead a half-mile from home, but Forte had far more in the tank while Cave Rock languished too long on his left lead in the stretch.

Still, the second-place effort was commendable given those less-than-optimal circumstances, and Cave Rock looms as a front-end force when he finally hits the entries.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael L Petersen; B-DATTT Farm (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start: 2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR) was christened a 'TDN Rising Star' upon debut back on opening day at Santa Anita, overcoming multiple examples of trip adversity (some of it self-inflicted) to win first time out.

In start number two, he ran a credible second despite being tactically disadvantaged behind a one-turn-specialist stablemate Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) in the GII San Vicente S. going seven furlongs. The latter returned to just miss in last weekend's G3 Saudi Derby Cup over a stamina-stretching mile.

Additional ground along the Derby trail (next start not yet disclosed) should aid Faustin's development arc, because 10 furlongs is well within the scope of his pedigree. His damsire and sire, Hard Spun and Curlin, finished second and third, respectively, in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Half a year later, Curlin and Hard Spun ran one-two in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

7) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Mary & Chester Broman (Ky); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Hejazi, a New York-bred, $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, is among the headliners in Saturday's 11-horse GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita. He has four races of experience, but only one try around two turns, which came last October while still a maiden and attempting winners (third in the GI American Pharoah S.).

He drew post seven for the San Felipe, and coming off a 6 1/2-furlong MSW score in which he led the field through early fractions of :21.97 and :44.28, Hejazi projects to be a forward factor on the stretch-out.

This will be his second start off a freshening (and his first for trainer Tim Yakteen on a transfer from Bob Baffert), and Hejazi merits respect based on the 97 Beyer he earned and the authoritative way he swatted back two deep-stretch challengers inside the final 100 yards.

A concern, though, is that four of the horses he beat on Jan. 15 have already raced again, and the best finish among them was a third-place try.

8) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Sagamore Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee's company lines got a boost when the third- and fourth-place finishers out of his Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. tally came back to win their next starts. Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}) scored in last Saturday's GII Rebel S. at 18-1 odds and Denington (Gun Runner) popped at 8-1 in a Feb. 18 first-level allowance route at Fair Grounds.

This son of Bolt d'Oro ($200,000 KEESEP) is three-for-four lifetime, with his only loss coming when fourth in a key renewal of the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October.

He is, however, the type of colt you'd like to see more of before deciding if he's a true 10-furlong horse.

That's not going to happen under trainer Brad Cox's current two-prep sophomore plan. With the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby projected as his next race, Instant Coffee is going to have nine weeks between starts trying to make the jump from 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles, then another six weeks until the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby.

He's currently two breezes into training since his last race.

9) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One is a longer-the-better type who isn't going to head to Louisville as a Derby standout. Yet he has the staying power and pedigree to be a dangerous threat; the type of double-digit longshot who will sit far back, make one sustained run, and if the trip and pace scenarios shake out in his favor–look out.

This son of Gun Runner out of a full-sister to Eclipse Award and GI Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Untapable (Tapit) is a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred who rallied from far off the tailgate and splashed into the homestretch of the GII Rebel S. with abandon, avoiding the crowding that was going on closer to the rail but not still shying from outer-path roughhousing in upper stretch before accelerating with a separate, deep-race burst in the run to the wire (92 Beyer for second).

True, he's never won on dirt. But Red Route One's past-performance block consists of seven route races on turf and dirt, and a wet racetrack hasn't been a problem on the three occasions he's encountered slop (twice second, once fifth).

“Obviously, we're anxious for the races to go farther,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “Not positive we won't wheel him back in the Louisiana Derby, a mile and three-sixteenths. Quit messing around and get him on out there.”

10) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last Start: Won Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

This colt's 92-Beyer, 5 3/4-length, smash-and-grab score in a six-furlong Santa Anita MSW sprint was encouraging enough for the generally conservative trainer Richard Mandella to declare him a “geaux” for two-turn stakes company, and he'll start from post eight in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe S. on Saturday.

Geaux Rocket Ride's form was flattered when the runner-up from that Jan. 29 win, Sonoran (Ride on Curlin), returned Feb. 20 to break his maiden by 7 1/4 lengths as a 3-5 favorite.

This $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) retains the services of jockey Flavien Prat for this weekend's engagement.

But, like six other entrants in the San Felipe, he'll have to come off the medication Lasix as he advances into stakes territory. That many horses making the off-Lasix switch lends an accentuated a wild-card flavor to what already looms as a tough 11-horse race to handicap.

11) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start:  Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Confidence Game is a plucky, adaptable overachiever ($25,000 KEESEP) with some racing royalty in his bloodlines: his dam, former 'TDN Rising Star' Eblouissante, is a Bernardini half-sister to the mighty Zenyatta.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux said this son of Candy Ride (Arg) “sort of lost his mind in the paddock” prior to his 94-Beyer winning effort in the sloppy Rebel S. last Saturday. But jockey James Graham was able to settle down Confidence Game during his warm-up, and the colt got a sweet mid-pack trip while fifth behind two longshot speedsters and two stalking favorites who never truly fired despite no-excuse trips.

Responding to far-turn rousing, Confidence Game got third run at the wilting leaders while widest off the turn, then largely avoided inside traffic with a work-in-progress kind of stretch run that included some outward wandering late (94 Beyer).

“He's really come into his own,” Desormeaux said. “He started off pretty immature. But as the races went on [seven total, five of them routes], he has improved things mentally and physically.”

12) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: Won Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Litigate, a $370,000 KEESEP colt by Blame, will be on trainer Todd Pletcher's traveling team with an expected next start in the Louisiana Derby. He most recently scored a 1 1/4-length win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa.

Note that even though the track is listed as 'fast' on the Equibase chart, that Feb. 11 race was run in a downpour, which might be a contributing factor to Litigate's tepid 77 Beyer and the race's lethargic closing fractions.

Sent to clear the field from post 10 by Luis Saez, Litigate ably rated back to fifth on the backstretch. He uncorked a decent move between the five-sixteenths pole and the quarter pole, then had to be ridden hard through the lane to put away a 21-1 shot and a 12-1 shot, finishing through driving rain in a sluggish final sixteenth clocked in :7.05.

His two previous tries showed promise, and they could prove to be useful building blocks as this colt attempts longer races more suited to his distance-centric pedigree: sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19, Litigate stalked with purpose behind a three-way battle for the lead, patiently took the overland route through the turn, then drew away respectably. Tasked with a one-turn mile allowance at Gulfstream Jan. 8, he nailed second by a nose behind a daylight winner.

He's worth consideration in New Orleans if you think the long Fair Grounds stretch will be his friend.

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Breaking from the same gate as Wet Paint (Blame) won from one race prior in the GIII Honeybee S., Confidence Game raced two-wide past the stands and settled a path off the rail as the field sorted themselves out into the first turn. Powerful (Nyquist) and Frosted Departure (Frosted) did their best to separate themselves from the group, duking it out on the front end just ahead of stablemates Verifying (Justify) and Giant Mischief (Into Mischief). The first quarter, up in :22.75, had the field strung out up the backstretch with Red Route One (Gun Runner) looking hopelessly beaten in the back. Confidence Game hung back just off those top four, shifting out a path as a rival came along inside for an outside move past the group of leg-weary leaders. Widest of the field past the quarter pole, he rallied with momentum down the lane despite hanging on his left lead. Red Route One came roaring up from the back of the pack inside the final sixteenth but ran out of time as Confidence Game hit the wire in front.

“He sort of lost his mind in the paddock, so I was worried until he got on the track,” said Desormeaux. “James [Graham] got him to settle down out there. He's really come into his own. He started off pretty immature, but as the races went on, he has improved things mentally, and physically.”

Winning rider Graham added: “I was able to settle him down when we were warming up so he got back in the things mentally. I was really happy with where I was early in the race. He wasn't doing too much too soon. He had a ton left down the lane. I'm just so happy for everyone involved and especially this horse. He keeps maturing and doing things the right way. I think the sky is the limit for him.”

Pedigree Notes:

A bargain buy at just $25,000 as a yearling at Keeneland September, Confidence Game is out of a half-sister to Horse of the Year Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}) and MGISW Balance (Thunder Gulch). Second dam Vertigineux was named 2008's Broodmare of the Year, while Eblouissante has twice brought big dollars at sales, first from St. George Farm at the 2013 KEENOV sale for $2.1 million and finally from Summer Wind Farm at Tattersalls in 2016 for 1,100,000gns.

Confidence Game is followed by juvenile and yearling half-brothers by More Than Ready and Speightstown, respectively, while Eblouissante was bred to Maclean's Music for this spring. Confidence Game is the 52nd graded-stakes winner for Candy Ride (Arg).

Saturday, Oaklawn Park
REBEL S.-GII, $1,000,000, Oaklawn, 2-25, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:44.21, sy.
1–CONFIDENCE GAME, 119, c, 3, by Candy Ride (Arg)
               1st Dam: Eblouissante, by Bernardini
               2nd Dam: Vertigineux, by Kris S.
               3rd Dam: For the Flag, by Forli
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($25,000 Ylg
'21 KEESEP). O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind
Equine LLC (KY); T-J. Keith Desormeaux; J-James Graham.
$581,750. Lifetime Record: 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus*. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree or free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Red Route One, 117, c, 3, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit.
O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen.
$179,000.
3–Reincarnate, 122, c, 3, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy.
($775,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing,
Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Stonestreet Stables
LLC, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC and
Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY); T-Tim
Yakteen. $89,500.
Margins: 1, 1HF, 2 3/4. Odds: 18.50, 9.90, 4.80.
Also Ran: Verifying, Bourbon Bash, Giant Mischief, Gun Pilot, Frosted Departure, Powerful, Event Detail, Talladega.
Click for the Equibase.com chart or the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

The post Candy Ride’s Confidence Game Splashes Home In Rebel appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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