1) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-4-2-0, $1,504,100. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

Right now there's a court showdown in Kentucky initiated by Muth's owner, Amr Zedan, to try and get this son of Good Magic ($190,000 KEESEP, $2 million OBSMAR) eligible to start in the Derby despite a corporate ban by Churchill Downs against Bob Baffert's trainees.

This 'TDN Rising Star' and winner of the GI Arkansas Derby would be among the favorites if he were granted access to the gate in Louisville. Otherwise, Baffert has indicated Muth is on target for the GI Preakness S.

Muth reacted professionally to two disruptive attempts in the early stages of the Arkansas Derby. Off as the 2.3-1 second choice, he showed good speed early, then Juan Hernandez conceded the lead when a 26-1 shot slipped through at the rail. When 11-10 favorite Timberlake (Into Mischief) unexpectedly accelerated between rivals at the 6 ½-furlong pole to seize the lead, Muth shadowed him about a length back while not expending much energy in doing so.

Muth began to gather serious momentum 3 ½ furlongs out, and opened up under a hand ride past his spent rival. Muth was then kept to task by Hernandez in the stretch to win by two lengths over Just Steel (Justify), and at no point did he appear to be scraping the bottom of his stamina reserves.

Muth has four wins and a pair of seconds from six lifetime races since breaking his maiden way back on June 18. He was second in the GIII Best Pal S., first in the GI American Pharoah S., second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, then a winner in the GII San Vicente S. prior to his tally at Oaklawn.

2) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-3-1-0, $918,000. Last start: WON Apr. 6 GI Blue Grass S.

When speed figures get adjusted several races after those numbers were initially assigned, it squares away potential inaccuracies moving forward. But this process of revising numerical ratings also can give horseplayers fits, because the changes can significantly alter one's perception of the overall pecking order.

A case in point was last week's Beyer Speed Figure change for Sierra Leone. After this $2.3 million FTSAUG sale-topper earned a 98 in winning the Apr. 6 GI Blue Grass S., Andrew Beyer told Daily Racing Form's David Grening that the colt's winning figure for the GII Risen Star S. would be upgraded from 90 to 95, and that all the horses who finished behind Sierra Leone would also be get a five-point boost.

“The Fair Grounds track was sloppy on Feb. 17, and may have been getting slower when the Risen Star was run,” Beyer told DRF. “Moreover, the pace of the Risen Star was slow enough to hinder horses from running a fast final time.

“The subsequent performances of horses in the field demonstrated that our initial figure was too low,” Beyer explained. “Three of the top five finishers all came back to win important stakes, and all five of these horses earned speed figures five or more points higher than their published numbers for the Risen Star.”

So Sierra Leone's career Beyer arc now reads 71-91-95-98 instead of 71-91-90-98.

The betting public's assessment of Gun Runner-sired 'TDN Rising Star' probably won't change all that much because of how the numbers paint him. He's capable of making one sustained run from five furlongs out, and as the Derby's best-credentialed closer, Sierra Leone will vie for favoritism with 2-year-old champ and fellow 'Rising Star' Fierceness, who projects to be a pacemaker.

3) FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) (c, Reel Steel {Jpn}–Forever Darling, by Congrats). O-Susumu Fujita; B-Northern Racing; T-Yoshito Yahagi. Sales History: ¥98,000,000 Ylg '22 JRHAJUL. Lifetime Record: 5-5-0-0, $2,049,451. Last start: WON Mar. 30 G2 UAE Derby.

The 5-for-5 Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) arrived at Churchill Downs on Saturday, then jogged in the one-mile chute for about 20 minutes before taking a 1 1/8-mile gallop Sunday.

This Yoshito Yahagi trainee, who sold for the equivalent of $720,603 at the JRHA Select Yearling and Foal sale, has earned the distinction of being the most credible foreign threat in the Derby since the advent of the points qualifying system.

Forever Young's victory in the G2 UAE Derby over 1900 meters stamped him as an A-lister based on his ground-conceding outside trip that featured deft shifting into consecutively higher gears and a confident drawing-away in the stretch.

Although there were only four dirt races on the G1 Dubai World Cup card at Meydan that day, two of them were blowout wins by speed horses who rode the rail, suggesting that the wide-all-the-way run by Forever Young could have been against the grain of the way the track was playing.

This colt's chances in the Derby will be augmented if jockey Ryusei Sakai can carve out a stalking trip that utilizes Forever Young's tactical speed to put him somewhere in the first flight or just behind it. Although he has come from farther back in several of his victories, rating from way off the tailgate in a 20-horse Derby doesn't seem like the most effective use of his cruising ability.

4) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, MGISW, 5-3-0-1, $1,703,850. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Curlin Florida Derby.

Now that all the speed-figure cards for the Derby are face-up on the table, the 110 Beyer awarded to 'TDN Rising Star' and 2-year-old champ Fierceness for his GI Florida Derby win stands atop the crop.

The chief question for handicappers though, is whether you think this Repole Stable homebred by City of Light can replicate or better that gaudy number in the Derby. It was earned under ideal circumstances in a 13 1/4 -length blowout against no other horses currently ranked among TDN's Top 20 sophomores.

A few weeks back the Derby was shaping up as a race lacking strong early speed horses. Now that vacuum has been theoretically filled, with Fierceness, Track Phantom (Quality Road), Dornoch (Good Magic), T O Password (JPN) (Copano Rickey (JPN)), and possibly Encino (Nyquist) all likely to want a say in the early fray.

When Fierceness is on his game, he is one of the most dangerous colts in the division. But excelling under adversity has not been his strong suit, with two baffling, odds-on losses in the GI Champagne S. and GIII Holy Bull S. offsetting resounding scores in his Saratoga unveiling, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and the Florida Derby.

5) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L and N Racing LLC, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-2-1, $405,000. Last start: 4th in Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

I always try to rate “how he did it” over “how fast” when handicapping. But in Track Phantom's case, even though I've consistently liked the way he's gone about his business when challenges have been thrown in his path, I still have nagging doubts about whether this colt is truly fast enough to be able to pull off a Derby win.

This $500,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road has handled different types of pace pressure despite being routinely drawn in or near the outside stall. He has engaged in several hard-fought stretch battles, and has run well over two different types of wet tracks at Fair Grounds and Churchill.

Even his beaten-fave fourth-place try after setting a moderate pace in the GII Louisiana Derby wasn't as bad as it might seem. Closers stacked up five across the lane behind Track Phantom at the top of the stretch, yet he didn't capitulate until the sixteenth pole.

Track Phantom isn't a flashy sort, but you have to give him points for consistency. Getting out of the gate is crucial in the Derby. This colt has been on the lead at the first call in five of his seven lifetime races, and in the two others he was second, just a head behind.

Trainer Steve Asmussen will try blinkers on Track Phantom for the Derby. After pairing 94 Beyers in his last two efforts, he'll need about a 10-point improvement to win.

Dornoch is the full-brother to Derby winner Mage | Ryan Thompson

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-2-0, $552,275. Last start: 4th in the GI Blue Grass S. Apr. 6.

Dornoch has lost some steam in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools, going from 9-1 in February to 12-1 in March to 15-1 in April.

Although this son of Good Magic has cachet because he is a full brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage, his no-impact fourth in the Blue Grass S. wasn't an emphatic enough of a final prep to stamp him as a major contender.

Although I wouldn't recommend singling Dornoch, it wouldn't be prudent to eliminate him off your Derby tickets entirely. Trainer Danny Gargan was asking this $325,000 KEESEP colt to change tactics by rating from behind horses in the Blue Grass, and after conceding that bit of schooling didn't work out, he said Luis Saez will be instructed just to let Dornoch roll from the gate in the Derby.

Gargan has spent the winter at Palm Meadows trying to get the brawny-framed Dornoch to maintain a keen sense of focus. If the figurative lightbulb clicks on in the Derby, look out.

7) JUST A TOUCH (c, Justify-Touching Beauty, by Tapit) O-Qatar Racing LLC, Resolute Racing & Marc Detampel; B-Don Alberto Corp. (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $170,000 RNA '22 KEESEP; $125,000 yrl '22 FTKOCT; $300,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $281,700. Last start: 2nd in GI Blue Grass S. Apr. 6.

Just a Touch deserves praise for what he has accomplished in only three starts. But since his second-place effort in the Blue Grass S., his bandwagon has become crowded enough to warrant a reality check. Are Derby prognosticators “reaching” for a horse who has yet to truly peak?

In the Blue Grass, this Brad Cox-trained colt ($170,000 RNA KEESEP, $125,000 FTKOCT, $300,000 OBSAPR) pressed a rapid pace, then gained control of the lead from the three-sixteenths marker until just before the sixteenth pole. He was no match for the locomotive-like close of Sierra Leone, but he didn't pack it in, and after being beaten only 1 ½ lengths, galloped out well.

Prior to that, Just a Touch broke his maiden by 4 ½ lengths sprinting at Fair Grounds Jan. 27, then was a wide but willing second in the Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct, both in the slop.

The post-Blue Grass reasoning has focused on how if Just a Touch could deliver such a good showing in only his first race around two turns and in his first race on a dry track, he just might be capable of turning in the over-the-top effort he will need to win the Derby, which will be run one day prior to his third birthdate.

From 1900 to the present, 26 horses have attempted to win the Kentucky Derby with exactly three lifetime starts. Only four have won: Mage in 2023, Justify in 2018, Big Brown in 2008 and Regret in 1915. Beyond those four, only one of the remaining 22 managed to hit the board (Curlin, third in 2007).

Just a Touch's sire, Justify, in 2018 became the first horse since Apollo in 1882 to win the Derby without having raced at age two. Mage then triumphed over the “Apollo curse” in 2023. But the record of horses in the Derby without a race at age two since 1937 is 2-3-5 from 73 starts.

8) ENCINO (c, Nyquist–Glittering Jewel, by Bernardini) O-Godolphin LLC; B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 4-3-1-0, $378,315. Last Start: WON GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. Apr. 13.

Encino (Nyquist) is a legit wild card if he goes in the Derby. He's in sharp form with three straight wins and a Beyer pattern that keeps improving. Yet he's taken an unconventional path to the Triple Crown level, pairing stakes victories in the John Battaglia Memorial S. over Tapeta at Turfway and wiring the GIII Lexington S. over Keeneland's short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles.

Speed and the rail have produced favorable results this spring at Keeneland, and this Godolphin homebred had little trouble establishing himself at the head of affairs in his first dirt try, rattling off unopposed opening quarter-mile splits of :23.53 and :23.73.

Encino responded when roused to swat back the race's only true challenger. But it's not entirely clear if the three-quarter length win (94 Beyer) was more attributable to Encino's fighting spirit or the inability of The Wine Steward (Vino Rosso) to seal the deal off a six-month layoff. The rest of the field was 8 ¼ lengths back.

Encino could end up being an intriguing wiseguy play in a year where the success of the two obvious Derby favorites (Fierceness and Sierra Leone) hinges upon whether they get the right pace and/or trips, and the next two logical horses in the betting (Just a Touch and Forever Young) still haven't won American dirt stakes.

9) IMAGINATION (c, Into Mischief–Magical Feeling, by Empire Maker) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan & Tom Ryan; B-Peter Blum Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,050,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-3-0, $406,800. Last start: 2nd in the GI Santa Anita Derby Apr. 6.

No next start has been publicly disclosed for Imagination (Into Mischief), a Bob Baffert trainee who was most recently second in the GI Santa Anita Derby.

This $1.05-million KEESEP colt has been battle-tested by hooking up in prolonged late-race fights in three straight races. Even though he didn't come out on the winning end of all of those stretch tussles, it's the type of experience that will stand him in good stead at the Triple Crown level.

Imagination is now 2-4-0 from six lifetime starts, which include five two-turn races.

10) RESILIENCE (c, Into Mischief-Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike) O-Emily Bushnell & Ric Waldman; B-Pam & Martin Wygod (KY); T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-1-1, $494,630. Last start: WON Apr. 6 GI Wood Memorial S.

The GII Wood Memorial S. win didn't appear to be an overlay demanding race for Resilience, and he does exit the most obvious key race among the points-awarding winter preps. Prior to his blinkers-on score in the Wood, he ran fourth in the Risen Star S., from which the first- and third-place finishers, Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom (Constitution) also won graded stakes in their next starts.

It took Resilience four starts to break his maiden. But the horses who won those first three at Saratoga and Churchill all eventually became stakes winners, so this colt gets points for taking a path to Louisville that has been laden with legit competition.

The question is whether this Bill Mott trainee is going take another leap forward (a small step won't do it) in Louisville.

11) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution–Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $877,350. Last start: WON Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

This medium-framed $575,000 KEESEP colt by Constitution from Brad Cox's barn waited patiently at the back behind a moderate tempo in the Louisiana Derby, then unwound 2 1/2 furlongs out and fanned 12 wide into the lane. He ran straight and reeled in his targets, but for the most part was passing horses who had already made their major moves in upper stretch.

The win returned a 97 Beyer, building on a previous upward trend of 72-77-87-92.

Only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby: Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924.

12) JUST STEEL (c, Justify–Irish Lights {Aus}, by Fastnet Rock {Aus}). O-BC Stables, LLC; B-Summerhill Farm (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Sales History: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 11-2-4-1, $724,545. Last start: 2nd Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

It's at this juncture within the Top 20 that we have to realistically start considering every Derby aspirant from Just Steel on down to be “chaos contenders.” In other words, a lot of things would have to go wrong, tactics-wise, with almost all of the projected favorites, and a lot of things would have to go right for these longer shots to envision one of them wearing a blanket of roses.

Yet it happens. Just ask Rich Strike (Keen Ice), the 80-1 Derby winner from two years ago.

This $500,000 KEESEP colt trained by D. Wayne Lukas already has 11 races of experience, and on three occasions at age three he's finished second around two turns in points-awarding Derby prep stakes. The one time he didn't, Just Steel was five wide round both turns in the GII Rebel S.

In the Arkansas Derby, Just Steel raced close to the pace throughout and finished only two workmanlike lengths behind No. 1-ranked Muth.

Potentially rounding out the Derby starting gate…

13) Domestic Product (Practical Joke)
Last week on the TDN Writers' Room podcast, trainer Chad Brown made a cogent case for this Klaravich Stables homebred to be “an under-the-radar real contender for the Derby” with a switch to jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. because Tyler Gaffalione is committed to No.2-ranked Sierra Leone.

Brown said he expected big things out of this son of Practical Joke in his Saratoga sprint debut, but attributed the subpar fifth to the colt getting pelted with dirt kickback. Domestic Product then missed some training, and although Brown doesn't usually like to run a 2-year-old at nine furlongs off just one six-furlong start, he did so on Oct. 27 and the result was a 4 1/2-length win at Aqueduct.

Brown said the muddy track was the primary reason for Domestic Product's poor seventh-place showing in the GII Remsen S., adding that a similarly wet track could be a problem if the rains come on Derby Day.

But, Brown added, Domestic Product's second in the GII Holy Bull S. and win in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby both were promising considering the colt closed into very slow paces in both races.

After the Tampa Derby, Brown said Gaffalione told him that Domestic Product is “not that far behind” Sierra Leone. “Going a mile and a quarter, they're not as much separating these two horses as you think,” the jockey told him.

“So I trust [Gaffalione],” Brown said. “I think taking the blinkers off of this horse was a positive move for him in his last two starts.”

14) Mystik Dan (Goldencents)
In the Arkansas Derby, this homebred son of Goldencents for owners Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby and 4G Racing didn't live up to his 101-Beyer winning, wet-track form from the GIII Southwest S. He was carried wide and encountered a bit of trip trouble, and ended up third, beaten 6 ½ lengths in his nine-furlong debut.

Throughout this colt's campaign, trainer Kenny McPeek has emphasized that Mystik Dan has a good mind and an easygoing attitude, both of which can be more valuable than what's on paper in his past performances.

McPeek said after a Saturday workout that Mystik Dan “got a lot” out of the Arkansas Derby “and has shown he handled it well in his training after.”

Co-owner Eric Waller, left, leads Stronghold and jockey Antonio Fresu into the winner's circle after their victory in the GI Santa Anita Derby | Benoit

15) Stronghold (Ghostzapper)
Stronghold is one of the more mature Derby aspirants, showing an ability to relax out of the gate, be responsive to his rider's cues to engage, and win stretch battles even after getting in front and then briefly losing the lead.

This Ghostzapper-sired homebred for Rick and Sharon Waller necked Imagination in the Santa Anita Derby. He earned an 89 Beyer, the same figure as his score in the GIII Sunland Derby Feb. 18. Those have been his only two starts at age three.

Although currently based in Southern California with trainer Phil D'Amato, Stronghold has already won over the Churchill surface. His one-turn-mile maiden victory back on Oct. 1 is notable because the second- and third-place finishers, Resilience and Track Phantom, are both currently ranked ahead of him on this list.

16) Endlessly (Oscar Performance)
Endlessly, whose six races thus far been all on either turf or Tapeta, is aiming for a May 4 start at Churchill. But trainer Michael McCarthy still hasn't zeroed in on whether that will be in the Kentucky Derby or the GII American Turf S.

This son of Oscar Performance won the Mar. 23 GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. by four lengths with a complete-control outside move that outclassed the field.

Endlessly has won five races total, and his only loss is much better than it looks. This homebred for Amerman Racing was eighth, but beaten only 3 1/2 lengths, in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.

17) Honor Marie (Honor Code)
This $40,000 KEESEP colt by Honor Code turns three on Derby Day. Although a touch behind his peers age-wise, Honor Marie does have the benefit of having won a two-turn stakes at Churchill at age two, the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.

Trainer Whit Beckman is on record as saying that the 10-fulrong distance, “if not farther” might end up being Honor Marie's sweet spot.

He was most recently third in the Louisiana Derby with a seven wide bid from the back of the pack.

18) Society Man (Good Magic)
This $85,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic chased without making an impact in his July 22 Saratoga sprint debut, then resurfaced seven months later at Aqueduct tasked with nine furlongs.

Society Man was bumped at the break and wide on the turns when third in that try, then had a nearly identical trouble line when attempting stakes company as a maiden in the muddy GIII Withers S.

He was difficult to load but delivered in a one-turn maiden mile Mar 9 in New York (also in the mud), then was a best-of-the-rest second at 106-1 odds behind Resilience in the Wood Memorial.

A plus is three races of experience at nine furlongs.

19) West Saratoga (Exaggerator)
As an $11,000 KEESEP bargain who has already bankrolled more than 40 times his purchase price in purses, this Larry Demeritte trainee deserves kudos for overachievement.

But despite running decently in several lower-profile stakes this season, West Saratoga (Exaggerator) hasn't hit the winner's circle since he registered a mild 12-1 upset in the Sept. 16  GIII Iroquois  S., a one-turn mile at Churchill.

This gray is also behind numbers-wise, with an 85 Beyer earned over Tapeta in his runner-up Jeff Ruby Steaks S. effort his career best.

West Saratoga's consistent tactical speed, which he's utilized to be within striking distance of the mid-race leaders in every single one of his 10 starts, could be an asset in the Derby.

20) T O Password (Jpn) (Copano Rickey {Jpn})
The “T O” in T O Password (Jpn) is a naming convention for horses owned by Tomoya Ozasa. This is a forward-running colt by Japanese champion dirt horse Copano Rickey (Jpn).

T O Password is a May 20 foal who did not make his debut until Jan. 6 at Kyoto in an 1,800-meter (about nine furlongs) maiden race. As the second favorite in the betting, he pressed a moderate pace and shook free over the final three furlongs to draw away by two lengths.

In the Mar. 23 1,800-meter Fukuryu S., this 13-1 Daisuke Takayanagi trainee went straight to the lead but tired late. He would have been nailed in the final jump by an onrushing closer had he not been saved by the wire.

T O Password figures to be a long-shot proposition north of 50-1 in the Derby. However, his tactics under Kazushi Kimura (Woodbine's leading rider last year) could play a major role in how the pace unfolds.

The post TDN Sophomore Top 20: Pace Scenario For Derby Coming Into Clearer Focus appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Soon after the track opened at 5:30 a.m., GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom was the first Derby contender to work when he went a solo half-mile in :48 (14/123).

“He's had very steady training the last five, six weeks,” trainer Brad Cox said. “We've worked him solo the last couple times and he's done very well. I'd say the track this morning was a bit heavy but he still got over it fine. His last two works have been fairly easy and we'll see how things shake out over the next two weeks with what we'll do before the Derby.”

A few minutes later, GIII Southwest S. winner and GI Arkansas Derby third Mystik Dan cruised a half-mile in :48 (14/123) with jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. in the saddle.

“He ran a credible third last time in the Arkansas Derby,” trainer Ken McPeek said. “I think he got a lot out of that race and has shown he handled it well in his training after.”

Following the 7:30 a.m. track renovation break, GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks winner Endlessly breezed a half-mile in :49 (54/123) inside of his Michael McCarthy-trained stablemate Yellow Card (Lost Treasure {Ire}). Endlessly could compete in either the Kentucky Derby or the grassy GII American Turf S.

Common Defense, runner-up in the GII Rebel S., worked an easy half-mile for McPeek in :49.40 (65/123). Common Defense currently needs two defections to make the field of 20.

The post Kentucky Derby Contenders Catching Freedom, Endlessly, Mystik Dan, Common Defense Work at Churchill Downs appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Trained by Brad Cox, the 3-year-old worked at 5:30 a.m. ET with exercise rider Edvin Vargas in the saddle. The duo cruised through an opening quarter-mile in :24 and galloped out five furlongs in 1:01.20.

“He's settled in nicely since we shipped him back to Churchill from Fair Grounds,” Cox said. “He was impressive closing from that far back in the Louisiana Derby and I think the longer stretch at Churchill plus the mile-and-a-quarter should only help him in the Derby.”

About two hours after Catching Freedom completed his work, stablemate and 'TDN Rising Star' Tarifa (Bernardini)–winner of the GII Fair Grounds Oaks–began her preparations for the GI Longines Kentucky Oaks with a half-mile breeze in :49.20.

As of Friday, three other Derby contenders were on the grounds at Churchill Downs: Endlessly (Oscar Performance), Honor Marie (Honor Code) and Track Phantom (Quality Road).

Endlessly is slated to work Saturday while Honor Marie and Track Phantom have scheduled works on Sunday.

The post Catching Freedom, Tarifa Work At Churchill Downs For Cox appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Happily, it has not taken long to cast a new leading man.

Oscar Performance has delivered his lines confidently from the first take. In fact, he has even improved on the script–his leading earner, to this point, being Red Carpet Ready, a triple graded stakes scorer on dirt. Another from his debut crop to have excelled on the main track is Tumbarumba, who recently

failed only by a nose to add a Grade II prize to the Grade III he won at Gulfstream in January.

It seems rather a pity, then, that Endlessly (Oscar Performance)–in the silks of his sire's owner-breeders–is declining the GI Kentucky Derby gate he secured with that dashing display in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks on Saturday. After all, this is the trial that produced the Derby winner and runner-up in the last two years, perhaps partly because the synthetic surface at Turfway is so much less demanding.

Obviously it has a comforting kinship with grass, perceived as the natural metier of Endlessly. But ours is an era that urgently needs to reconcile gene pools too long divided, not just by an ocean, but by a failure of imagination. It was the international exchange of bloodlines that invigorated the breed in the

last century–and it's primarily our own inflexibility that has stifled the versatility our predecessors discovered in Nasrullah, Northern Dancer and Sunday Silence. Perhaps the sensational impact of Justify in Europe can renew that kind of traffic. In the meantime, however, Oscar Performance is certainly well placed to profit from the expanding turf and synthetic programs in his own backyard. In fact, Endlessly was only one of three sophomore winners for the Mill Ridge sire on the Turfway card (the others included Rushaway S. winner Trikari) while another member of the same crop broke his maiden on grass at Santa Anita later that day.

One way or another, Oscar Performance must be counted a wholesome influence as a Grade I winner at two, three and four. He covered 160 mares last spring, much his biggest book after suffering the habitual slide to 63 in his fourth season, and his fee (nudged to $25,000 this year) will surely keep advancing with the traction he's achieving.

But we can safely leave such decisions to those standing him, not least a farm that had been out of the stallion game for a generation but is proving admirably alert to 21 st Century needs and opportunities. On the same basis, the remarkable program that produced him, and has now also come up with Endlessly, can plainly manage perfectly well without any impertinent musings about the kind of priceless marketing opportunity they're now passing up.

Endlessly's immediate family admittedly has chlorophyll flavors: second dam Society Dream (Fr) (Akarad {Fr}) was a stakes performer in Europe before being imported by the Amermans, who duly kept her on the “weeds” to get her graded stakes-placed. Three of her daughters have produced stakes winners on turf: one, by Royal Academy, notably came up with GI Just A Game S. winner Coffee Clique (Medaglia d'Oro); another, by Quality Road, gave Oscar Performance a first-crop headliner in Hawthorne Derby winner Act a Fool; and a third, an unraced daughter of Langfuhr, is responsible for Endlessly himself.

But remember that Langfuhr is by one of the great diversifiers in Danzig, and won iconic showcases of dirt speed like the Met Mile, Forego, Carter and Vosburgh. As sire of Lawyer Ron, and damsire of Proud Spell and Firenze Fire, Langfuhr is certainly every bit as eligible to help a daughter draw out any dirt aptitude in Oscar Performance as, say, Street Sense–himself, of course, by the turf-bred Street Cry (Ire)–who happens to be damsire of both Red Carpet Ready and Tumbarumba.

In fairness, the second dam of both those horses (who are bred with remarkable symmetry) is by A.P. Indy, while Red Carpet Ready actually traces to Yarn/Narrate. But Endlessly's own family, besides its single-generation detour to France, has similarly indigenous roots: ultimately, indeed, it is the dynasty of Bull Lea.

Not even I can pretend that Oscar Performance's own sire was a versatile influence, while his dam (synthetic stakes winner) was by Theatrical. But the seeding of all the next dams is straight down the middle of Main Street: Mr. Prospector, Slew o' Gold, Danzig (Langfuhr's sire again), Bold Reason, Buckpasser (this last mare, moreover, out of matriarch Lady Pitt).

Bottom line is that none of us ever knows exactly which strands of a pedigree will shape the flesh-and-blood animal in front of us. The people around Endlessly naturally have a more intimate grasp of his adaptability, but as a wider principle I think we all need to be less prescriptive and remember that no race is ever run on paper.

Another One That Got Away…

With 100 starting points evidently going down one black hole at Turfway, and so many others disappearing into a deeper one in California, there may be some credibility issues about a few that eventually find themselves with a Derby gate. Yet missing second by a head in the Jeff Ruby may yet prevent this messy situation containing seeds of its own redemption through a fairytale Derby bid for Seize The Grey (Arrogate).

Arrogate | Horsephotos

He's improving with experience, much as we might expect of a horse being brought along by the evergreen genius–and priceless advocate for our sport–who trains him. He also belongs to the final crop of Arrogate, who from tragically curtailed opportunity bequeathed Classic winners in each of the last two years: first Secret Oath, for D. Wayne Lukas himself, and then champion Arcangelo.

The latter's profile matched that of his sire, in that he developed too late to make the Derby, so Seize The Grey is ahead of the game. And likewise Liberal Arts, who can build on a really promising comeback when lining up for the GI Arkansas Derby this weekend. He will carry fervent support from the many friends made in the business by Evan Ferraro of Fasig-Tipton, who co-bred (and co-owns) this colt with his father Stephen.

Moreover Arrogate's final crop now has an additional Classic shot through Everland, who banked 50 GI Kentucky Oaks points with her own stakes success on the Turfway synthetic last Saturday. Her rise was chronicled in Monday's TDN by colleague T.D. Thornton, and there's no reason why she shouldn't prove equally effective on dirt.

She was certainly an alert claim, with her residual value seemingly guaranteed: she was bred by previous owner George Strawbridge Jr. from a daughter of Tapit and Rainbow View (Dynaformer), who won him Group 1 prizes at two and three when trained in Europe. It was only last week that we had occasion to celebrate this family, Rainbow View's Grade I- winning dam No Matter What (Nureyev) having been a half-sister to Vronsky (Danzig), sire of Californian sprint idol The Chosen Vron.

The dam of Vronsky and No Matter What additionally produced GI Travers runner-up E Dubai (Mr Prospector), while her full sister gave us Raven's Pass (Elusive Quality) to win the GI Breeders' Cup Classic in 2008–a race won four years later by E Dubai's standout son Fort Larned.

Quite a family, then, and the program that risked Everland in a claimer suffered another cruel twist at Turfway on Saturday, as a result of discarding another female at Fasig-Tipton's February Sale in 2021.

The fact that the 13-year-old Dynamic Holiday (Harlan's Holiday) made only $14,000, as a well-bred graded stakes winner in foal to Oscar Performance, tells you that it was a pretty logical cull. Despite some good covers, her breeding record had been abysmal. Yet the foal she was carrying has now turned out to be Turfway stakes winner Trikari. (As if the Amermans weren't adequately committed to Oscar performance, they actually bought this fellow as an OBS October yearling for $27,500.)

Still, the team that lost both Everland and the dam of Trikari might not be the only ones kicking themselves. The mare appears to have been moved on again since, in a Fasig digital sale in October, for $3,500.

Extending the GII Louisiana Derby since 2020 has worked out extremely well, the second such running having produced four of the first six past the post at Churchill, and then Epicenter the following year. Perhaps the reluctance of trainers today to give sophomores an old-fashioned grounding is favoring those that have redressed the resulting deficiency at least by running a distance of ground.

Catching a Rising Tide…

As such we need to respect the prospects of Catching Freedom (Constitution), who is palpably beginning to figure things out. He's by no means the finished article, but is certainly vindicating his selection by Albaugh Family Stables as a $575,000 Book I yearling at the Keeneland September Sale.

Constitution | Sarah Andrew

However he proceeds from here, there's certainly no anomaly about a Derby colt for Constitution, who's just entering the next big cycle of his career. With his current 4-year-olds conceived at just $15,000, Catching Freedom belongs to his first crop sired even at $40,000–and it's a very big one, too, the breeders of 187 live foals having responded to his freshman breakout in 2019 (runner-up to American Pharoah). But the upgrade really kicks in with his incoming juveniles, sired at $85,000 after first-crop star Tiz The Law had proved himself an elite 3-year-old.

Catching Freedom raised the curtain on what was always going to be a big year for his sire by winning the Smart Jones S. on its very first day, and his progress must be creating plenty of excitement at WinStar–not only as the farm that stands Constitution himself, but also as the breeders of this colt out of the Grade I-placed stakes winner Catch My Drift (Pioneerof The Nile).

Purchased at the end of her career for $400,000, at Fasig-Tipton in November 2015, she has since divided her favors between the home farm roster and assignations elsewhere. Uncle Mo, for instance, gave her Bishops Bay, who showed plenty of talent in a light sophomore campaign last year. Sold as a yearling for $450,000, he beat last weekend's GIII Essex H. scorer First Mission (Street Sense) on debut and also ran nascent champion Arcangelo to a head in the GIII Peter Pan. Catch My Drift also has a stakes-placed daughter by Into Mischief.

It must be acknowledged that her family offers finite explanation for the quality she has shown, first on the track and now as a producer. Nor would first four dams by Yonaguska, Tabasco Cat, Crafty Prospector and Baldski shout “a blanket of roses” for her son. On the other hand, he entwines sire-lines of 'unbridled' Classic branding: his damsire is by Unbridled's son Empire Maker; and his grandsire Tapit is out of an Unbridled mare. The length of his rehearsal certainly drew on that well, and will again leave the Louisiana Derby winner as one of the few copper-bottomed stayers on the first Saturday in May.

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Breaking from the 12 hole, GIII Lecomte S. scorer Track Phantom (Quality Road) was ushered to the front as Common Defense (Karakontie {Jpn}) prompted him through opening splits of :23.49 and :48.33 as Catching Freedom lingered at the back under an unhurried Flavien Prat. Starting to gain ground while several paths wide approaching the final turn, he was fanned out no less than seven paths wide as the field constricted up front. Closing with purpose down the center of the track, he put his head in front in the stages before drawing clear to put himself squarely in the Kentucky Derby picture. Last season's

GII Kentucky Jockey Club victor Honor Marie (Honor Code) got up for second while Tuscan Gold (Medaglia d'Oro) completed the trifecta.

“I didn't know what to make of it early on, being so far back and with not much pace, but Flavien did a great job of letting him inch up,” said winning trainer Brad Cox, who also won the Fair Grounds Oaks with Tarifa. “He needed pretty much the entire stretch to get there. I am very proud of the effort. We'll make sure he is happy and healthy. We'll ship him up to Churchill; he broke his maiden there, so he knows the place. Hopefully, he can have a great six weeks and a big run the first Saturday in May.”

Starting things off the right way, the $575,000 Keeneland September buy came from off the pace to triumph by 1 3/4 lengths going a mile at Churchill Downs in October before returning to finish fourth while adding a sixteenth at that venue Nov. 9. Favored to regain the winning thread next time in the Jan. 1 Smart Jones S., the bay obliged with a 2 1/2-length win over Just Steel. Let go at 5-1 in a sloppy edition of the GII Risen Star S. Feb. 17, he finished third behind Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) and Track Phantom.

Pedigree Notes:
Catching Freedom is the 31st graded winner for WinStar's Constitution, whose 64 black-type winners worldwide in just five crops have repeatedly kept him at or near the top of his contemporaries on the sire lists. The son of Tapit finished 2023 as the leading fifth-crop sire by stakes winners and went into the Louisiana Derby ranked in the current year's top dozen North American-based sires–regardless of number of crops–by earnings.

While Catching Freedom is Constitution's second stakes winner out a Pioneerof the Nile mare, Constitution has an additional two stakes winners–both graded–out of mares by Pioneerof the Nile's sire, Empire Maker, and a number of others out of daughters of at least two other sons of Unbridled. The late Pioneerof the Nile, who also stood at WinStar, has 13 black-type winners out of his daughters.

Catch My Drift, a stakes winner at Saratoga who finished third in the 2015 GI Beldame S. at Belmont Park, was a $400,000 purchase by WinStar at the 2015 Fasig-Tipton November sale. The mare produced two stakes performers prior to Catching Freedom: last year's GIII Peter Pan S. and GIII Ohio Derby runner-up Bishops Bay (Uncle Mo), also a 'TDN Rising Star', and MSP Strava (Into Mischief), who was an $825,000 Keeneland November weanling. She has a juvenile filly by Improbable named Indeed, who sold to Centennial Farms at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga for $385,000, and a yearling filly by Not This Time.

What a rally from CATCHING FREEDOM, giving it his all to power down the stretch and win the GII Louisiana Derby in the most impressive fashion! He collects 100 Kentucky Derby points. pic.twitter.com/Z1ByTqTWuQ

— TDN (@theTDN) March 23, 2024

Saturday, Fair Grounds
TWINSPIRES.COM LOUISIANA DERBY-GII, $1,000,000, Fair Grounds, 3-23, 3yo, 1 3/16m, 1:56.16, ft.
1–CATCHING FREEDOM, 122, c, 3, by Constitution
                1st Dam: Catch My Drift (SW & GISP, $280,540),
                                by Pioneerof the Nile
                2nd Dam: Drift to the Lead, by Yonaguska
                3rd Dam: Drifa, by Tabasco Cat
1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($575,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP).
O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm, LLC (KY);
T-Brad H. Cox; J-Flavien Prat. $600,000. Lifetime Record:
5-3-0-1, $877,350. *1/2 to Strava (Into Mischief), MSP,
$378,010 and Bishops Bay (Uncle Mo), MGSP, $212,600.
Werk Nick Rating: A++.
Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Honor Marie, 122, c, 3, Honor Code–Dame Marie, by Smart
Strike. ($40,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP). O-Ribble Farms LLC, Michael
Eiserman, Earl Silver, Kenneth Fishbein and Daniel Fishbein;
B-Royce Pulliam (KY); T-D. Whitworth Beckman. $200,000.
3–Tuscan Gold, 122, c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Valadorna, by Curlin.
'TDN Rising Star'. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE.
($600,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP). O-William Lawrence, Walmac Farm
and Stonestreet Stables LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred
Holdings LLC (KY); T-Chad C. Brown. $100,000.
Margins: 1, 3/4, 3/4. Odds: 3.30, 7.80, 11.20.
Also Ran: Track Phantom, Common Defense, Antiquarian, Agate Road, Next Level, Awesome Ruta, Hall of Fame, Real Men Violin. Scratched: Triple Espresso.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

The post Catching Freedom Upsets Track Phantom, Wins Louisiana Derby appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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According to McPeek, the 21-day return to the GII Rebel S. factored into McPeek's decision to train Mystik Dan up to the Arkansas Derby. McPeek originally sent Mystik Dan to the Fair Grounds to prepare for the Southwest after arctic temperatures, snow and rain halted training at Oaklawn for 11 days (Jan. 13-23). Mystik Dan recorded three published workouts at Oaklawn–Dec. 23, Dec. 29 and Jan. 12–before heading south.

“He's doing well,” said McPeek, who has divisions at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds. “I skipped a breeze with him this weekend because the track was horrendous, and he'll get teed up for the Arkansas Derby in the next month.”

McPeek indicated Mystik Dan's upcoming works in advance of the Arkansas Derby will be in New Orleans.

“He might come up, like, a week early to work over the track or he may come a few days before the race,” McPeek said.

Mystik Dan kicked off 2024 with a fifth-place finish, beaten 3 1/4 lengths by Catching Freedom, in the Smarty Jones S. Jan. 1.

According to trainer Brad Cox, the Arkansas Derby is also a possibility for Catching Freedom (Constitution).

“Very pleased with the effort,” Cox said. “It looks like he came out of it well.”

Cox won the 2022 Arkansas Derby with Cyberknife and last year with Angel of Empire, who, like Catching Freedom, is owned by Albaugh Family Stables.

“I think right now everything's in play–the Arkansas Derby, Louisiana Derby [Mar. 23], Blue Grass S. [Apr. 6],” Cox said. “I might even throw the Wood [Memorial, Apr. 6] in there. Don't think we would do the Florida Derby or the Santa Anita Derby. But those four races will be on his radar, and we'll pick the one we're thinking makes the most sense. Obviously, he ran well in Arkansas. That gives us some confidence if that's the route to go.”

Catching Freedom (25 points) and Mystik Dan (21) rank fifth and sixth, respectively, on the latest Kentucky Derby leaderboard released by Churchill Downs. The Arkansas Derby offers 200 points (100-50-25-15-10, respectively) to its top five eligible finishers toward Kentucky Derby.

The post Mystik Dan Confirmed for Arkansas Derby, Catching Freedom Possible appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Track Phantom (Quality Road) will look to continue his domination among the local 3-year-olds as he looks to remain unbeaten around two turns in trying to add to his victories in the Dec. 23 Gun Runner S. and a front-running success in the GIII Lecomte S. Jan. 20. The $500,000 Keeneland September grad is one of two in the race for three-time Risen Star winner Steve Asmussen.

“It was great to see him win the race against a talented field, but especially with going as fast as they did early and showing enough quality to still respond,” the Hall of Famer commented. “I think the Lecomte was as easy on him as you could have wanted it to be, with him still getting something out of it.”

Joel Rosario will likely get after Track Phantom again from gate 11, but it was Asmussen's other winner on the Lecomte undercard who achieved the faster figure. Hall of Fame (Gun Runner) was trying a route of ground for the first time that afternoon and looked sensational doing it. His final time was 0.46 quicker than the Lecomte while his 94 Beyer was four points superior to Track Phantom en route to earning 'TDN Rising Star' honors.

“He was ridden much more aggressively (in his maiden win) because he's playing a little catch up on a horse like Track Phantom, but the ability is there,” Asmussen said of the $1.4-million Fasig-Tipton Saratoga graduate.

Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) topped the Saratoga Sale on a bid of $2.3 million and came running late to graduate by 1 1/4 lengths at first asking at Aqueduct Nov. 4, also earning the 'Rising Star' designation. When last seen, the dark bay rallied from last to lead into the final furlong of the GII Remsen S. Dec. 2, only to be outbattled to the wire by Dornoch (Good Magic).

“He was the only horse that day that made up any ground and that's an important thing to note,” trainer Chad Brown told Bill Finley earlier this week. “He had every chance to win. I was pleased with the effort, though disappointed by the outcome.”

Brad Cox has won the Risen Star three times in the last four years, including Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) last winter. Albaugh Family Stables' Catching Freedom (Constitution) flies the flag for the barn after posting a 2 1/2-length victory in the Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Park Jan. 1.

“We're going to need to improve off the Smarty Jones,” Cox said. “Physically he looks great. He's had a good bit of time between races, he shipped back here and is moving well, so we'll see if he's up for it.”

Rachel Alexandra A Key Oaks Prep

The sophomore fillies' counterpart to the Risen Star is named in honor of the romping winner of the 2009 GI Kentucky Oaks and has been an exceptionally productive steppingstone to the first Friday in May. Dating back to 2014, no fewer than four winners of the Rachel Alexandra have gone on to success at Churchill Downs, including 'TDN Rising Star' Pretty Mischievous (Into Mischief) last year.

Brad Cox saddled Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) to take the 2018 Rachel Alexandra and Kentucky Oaks, and the stable relies upon Alpine Princess (Classic Empire) in this spot. Beaten a long way from home when seventh in the GI Darley Alcibiades S. last October, the bay has since won two straight, both around two turns, including a two-length score over West Omaha (Omaha Beach) in the local Untapable S. Dec. 30. The latter flattered the form with a five-length romp over Perfect Shot (Gun Runner) in the Jan. 20 Silverbulletday S.

“She's always been a pretty good workhorse,” Cox said. “That's how she came to us back in the spring. She likes the track here. It's a step up. We'll give her another opportunity at the graded stakes level and hopefully she can get it done.”

'TDN Rising Star' V V's Dream (Mitole) lived up to that honor with a dominating victory in the GIII Pocahontas S. last September and a runner-up effort in the Alcibiades, but connections elected to pass the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. She was never truly a factor when beaten 9 1/2 lengths into third as the heavy favorite in the Oct. 29 Rags To Riches S., but her trainer has not lost faith in her.

“We're really excited,” Ken McPeek said. “She's been working super. She's as strong as ever right now. [Assistant trainer] Greg Geier has got her here in good order. She's really a high-level filly, and I'd love to think this is just one stepping stone to getting her to the [Kentucky] Oaks.”

With Florent Geroux committed to Alpine Princess, fellow Frenchman Flavien Prat takes over for Cox on the rail-drawn 'Rising Star' Tarifa (Bernardini). A disappointing second in Churchill allowance company behind next-out SW Denim and Pearls (Into Mischief), the Godophin homebred set the record straight with a solid victory in her two-turn debut on the Lecomte undercard.

Stronghold Rates The Marquee In Sunland Derby

A little more than two weeks after opting out of what turned out to be a one-horse race in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. at Santa Anita, Stronghold (Ghostzapper) ships into New Mexico to tackle Sunday's $800,000 GIII Sunland Derby for trainer Phil D'Amato. A second-out maiden winner over Churchill's one-turn mile, the homebred got a good look at the hind end of 'TDN Rising Star' Nysos (Nyquist) when a distant second in the GIII Bob Hope S. at Del Mar last November and was forced to settle for second in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity in his juvenile finale Dec. 16. Antonio Fresu flies in from California for the ride.

Informed Patriot (Hard Spun) has only a maiden win to his credit from five starts, but has acquitted himself well in stakes company, finishing third in the GIII Street Sense S. Oct. 29 before filling the same spot in the Smarty Jones.

Lucky Jeremy (Lookin At Lucky) won his maiden in a restricted event going a mile on the Street Sense undercard and came away late to best Alotluck (Sir Prancealot {Ire}) by two lengths in the local Riley Allison Derby Jan. 19. It was a large expanse back to Surroundedbyangels (Smiling Tiger) that afternoon.

The Sunland Derby is also a Derby points race, with 20 points going to the winner.

The post Risen Star Kicks Off Derby Championship Series appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Even though the official Derby qualifying points leaderboard omits those horses, TDN's Top 12 will continue to include them for the time being on the basis that 1) the situation could change; 2) the performances of those horses represent significant benchmarks in establishing the pecking order for everyone else, and 3) there is no point at this still-early stage of the Triple Crown campaign to dismiss the accomplishments of the nation's top colts, regardless of whether they end up in the Derby or not.

1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist–Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $216,600. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Robert F. Lewis S.

Undefeated kingpin Nysos (Nyquist) extended the already sizable gap back to his next closest competitors with a thorough and professional clock-cleaning of six overmatched rivals in Saturday's GIII Robert Lewis S. at Santa Anita. The effort stood out because it was delivered in a scintillating style that underscored both the colt's level of self-assurance and his athletic prowess.

This 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' from trainer Bob Baffert's barn has now scored at six, seven and eight furlongs, winning by a combined 26 3/4 lengths while earning Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 97 at age two prior to uncorking a wowza 105 for his sophomore debut.

The light-on-his-feet Nysos ($130,000 KEENOV, $150,000 FTKOCT, $550,000 OBSAPR) glided under the wire by 7 ½ lengths. Flavien Prat could have nudged that margin into double digits had he not begun the gearing-down process more than a sixteenth of a mile before the finish.

After breaking a beat slowly then opting not to go into chase mode to reel in a breakaway pacemaker, Prat's only taxing tactical decision came on the far turn when he opted to slice Nysos to the inside of one rival then come around the other tiring two. A hustling hand ride between the five-sixteenths and eighth poles was all it took to elicit the desired gear without Nysos needing to demonstrate how much torque might remain in reserve.

“He stumbled a bit leaving there, but he was in a good spot,” Baffert said. “Prat rode him with a lot of confidence, he knows the horse well. I love the fact that he has speed and he proved he can do two turns. He has a great mind. He is a really good colt. You can just sit there and push the button at any time. It makes it so much easier for the riders, but I still get a little nervous.”

2) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

With three wins and two seconds from five lifetime races and a classy, all-business style, Muth ($190,000 KEESEP and $2 million OBSMAR) is in the top tier among the Bob Baffert's per-usual loaded stable of sophomores.

Oddly enough, this son of Good Magic's best race Beyer-wise (a 95 in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile) was his least visually impressive performance. Even with a Santa Anita home-track advantage and a no-excuse stalking trip, this 'TDN Rising Star' had to be driven hard in an unsuccessful attempt to match strides in upper stretch with eventual divisional champ Fierceness.

But Muth's co-lowest career Beyer of 90 in the Jan. 6 GIII San Vicente S. is the opposite, with the effort seeming better to the eye than the speed figure it earned.

The San Vicente could turn out to be an extremely useful seven-furlong speed sharpener for Muth, who shadowed two early leaders before running up the score at will while ridden out under the wire.

That effort whets the appetite for another two-turn engagement. But since Baffert's style is generally not to disclose stakes engagements until at or just before entry time, we're left to guess-although we do know that preps at Santa Anita and Oaklawn have historically been his most-preferred options.

Prior to running second in the Breeders' Cup, Muth was already a winner over 1 1/16 miles against Grade I company. He scored in the Oct. 7 American Pharoah S. by forcing the issue from fourth, then tipping out to accost the leaders off the turn without needing much encouragement to wrest control of the race.

3) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $96,750. Last start: 2nd Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) is targeting the GII Risen Star S. for his 2023 debut. That nine-furlong New Orleans race will be the first of two projected Derby preps at age three for trainer Chad Brown, which would give this colt three straight 1 1/8 mile races prior to attempting 10 furlongs in Louisville

This FTSAUG $2.3 million sales topper looked like the winner in the closing stages of the Dec. 2 GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct when he rallied seven wide against the teeth of a sealed-track speed bias. But Sierra Leone lugged in late and lost the lead to Dornoch (Good Magic), who prevailed by a nose.

That two-turn try was Sierra Leone's only other race after winning his one-turn-mile debut Nov. 4 at Aqueduct. After a slight bobble at the break, this colt settled next to last, overcame several minor momentum stalls on the backstretch and turn, swung five wide off the bend, then started to rally with authority. Despite twice shifting off the heels of rival runners, Sierra Leone was motoring late once he got straightened out.

The on-paper strength of that maiden win has been validated by short-priced, next-out wins by the second- and fourth-place finishers: Runner-up Change of Command is currently parked at No. 9 on the TDN Top 12 list after winning two subsequent starts at Gulfstream, while Tuscan Gold (Medaglia d'Oro) was named a fellow 'Rising Star' after a 6 1/4-length maiden romp at Gulfstream Jan. 31.

4) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L & N Racing LLC, Clark O Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-3-1-1, $285,000. Last start: WON Jan. 20 GIII Lecomte S.

Track Phantom will celebrate his Feb. 17 birthday by riding a three-race win streak into the Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds for trainer Steve Asmussen.

This $500,000 KEESEP colt by Quality Road is on a path that could end up shadowing the career arc of another Asmussen trainee, Epicenter, who displayed a similar speed-centric style in 2021-22 while winning three of four stakes (barely losing the fourth by a head) on the New Orleans prep path.

On the strength of his GII Louisiana Derby victory, Epicenter ended up starting favored in the Kentucky Derby, where he had the race won in the shadow of the wire before 80-1 shocker Rich Strike blew by from out of nowhere in the final few jumps. Epicenter later won the 10-furlong GI Travers S. and was crowned champion 3-year-old colt.

Like Track Phantom seems to be doing now, Epicenter didn't wow anyone early on with flash and panache. But by the first Saturday in May, Epicenter had earned respect for his steady, reliable way of always showing up.

Track Phantom owns a Beyer progression 74, 81, 88, 89 and 90 in five starts, all at a mile or longer, and in his trio of two-turn scores he's showed a knack for deploying gate speed without being fazed by rail-running rivals trying to disrupt his rhythm with keyed-up tactics.

This colt's 2 3/4-length wiring in the GIII Lecomte S. might seem like an artifact of a tepid tempo. But the visual at the quarter pole of Track Phantom easily opening up while an all-out favorite was under futile urging and not making up ground behind him speaks strongly in support of Track Phantom's ability to settle into a comfortable cadence, then fend off anyone who makes a serious run at him.

Fierceness | Benoit

5) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: 4-2-0-1, $1,127,250. Last start: 3rd Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S.

You can pick among a variety of excuses for Fierceness's failed-to-fire third in the GIII Holy Bull S., and some of them might even be valid: His break from the gate wasn't ideal. He had to be used harder than expected while losing ground on the first turn just to stay in touch with a very slow pace. He wasn't fully cranked for the effort off a three-month layoff.

The bottom line, though, is that this 'TDN Rising Star' by City of Light is the 2-year-old champ, and based on the way the Holy Bull came up on paper, the betting public had hammered him to 1-5 odds because he was supposed to throttle competition of this caliber, even if he was having an “off” day.

(As a public-service announcement for horseplayers who might want to save money next year–or next month, the two 1 1/16-miles graded stakes at Gulfstream are among the biggest money-burning races for favorites on the entire Derby prep calendar. Holy Bull faves have now gone down in flames in seven of the last eight runnings, and the fave in the GII Fountain of Youth S. has lost 12 of the last 17 editions.)

But back to Fierceness: This is not a “toss the baby out with the bathwater” type of disappointment that gets this colt voted off the Top 12 island. The Repole Stable homebred reportedly exited Saturday's race none the worse for wear, according to trainer Todd Pletcher. Based on the rip-roaring display of power Fierceness unleashed in the Breeders' Cup last November, it's conceivable that he rebounds in his one remaining prep (yet to be determined) and coasts into Louisville as a formidable force.

It's still early enough in the Derby season to be forgiving. But that will get more difficult as the prep-race cadence quickens and the plot thickens.

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $257,400. Last start: WON Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Because Dornoch is the full brother to last year's Derby winner, Mage, this son of Good Magic is destined to be saddled with outsized, and perhaps unfair, expectations.

But if Dornoch's focus ever manages to catch up with his large, brawny frame, this colt is going to be a legitimate Triple Crown threat.

This $325,000 KEESEP trainee for Danny Gargan kicked off his career with a pair of runner-up efforts before wiring a 1 1/16-mile maiden field Oct. 14 at Keeneland by 6 1/2 lengths.

Tasked with nine-furlongs and a sealed, muddy surface at Aqueduct in the Remsen S., Dornoch outgunned five rivals for the lead, took pressure from a 27-1 shot, swatted back bids from fresh challengers on the far bend, then brushed the rail and re-surged to steal the lead late from No. 3-ranked Sierra Leone.

The Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream will be next, and Dornoch is two breezes back into his training routine at Palm Meadows for that Mar. 2 stakes.

7) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $39,000. Last start: WON Jan. 20 Santa Anita MSW.

Maymun ($50,000 KEESEP, $900,000 OBSAPR) split horses early, shot straight to the lead, and set a spirited pace under pressure before shrugging off three wilting rivals at the quarter pole and cantering home by 7 1/2 easy lengths in his Jan. 20 unveiling over 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita (93 Beyer).

This son of Frosted out of an Indian Charlie mare earned 'TDN Rising Star' status for the effort.

He was no secret to the betting public, as evidenced by 9-10 favoritism. Maymun had been on the radar of many who had pegged him as a horse of interest after seeing him breeze a furlong in :9 3/5 prior to the Ocala auction.

“He was ridiculously fast,” trainer Bob Baffert had said of the colt shortly after the sale.

“This was one of the best horses in the sale, I thought,” bloodstock agent Donato Lanni said last spring. “He deserved to bring that kind of money.”

8) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution—Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $237,350. Last start: WON Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S.

Add Catching Freedom to the list of Top 12 colts aiming for the Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. Trainer Brad Cox envisions that Feb. 17 start as a springboard to the Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby as the final Kentucky Derby prep for this son of Constitution.

Cox has won the Arkansas Derby in each of the last two seasons, with Cyberknife and Angel of Empire.

After breaking his maiden in a one-turn mile and running a decent fourth in a 1 1/16-mile allowance (both at Churchill), this $575,000 KEESEP colt rode the rail near the back in the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn before unwinding with a long, grind-down rally. Catching Freedom finished up with head cocked out to the grandstand, and it took him a while to swap leads in the lane, but those aren't major concerns at this still-early point in his development.

Catching Freedom's form got a boost over the weekend when the fifth- and second-place finishers out of the Smarty Jones came back to run one-two in the GIII Southwest S.

9) CHANGE OF COMMAND (c, Into Mischief–Moi, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales history: $570,000 Wlg '21 FTKNOV; $1,050,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $113,300. Last start: WON Jan. 5 Gulfstream AOC.

Change of Command is expected to be entered Wednesday in the GIII Sam Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs. He'll be well regarded in the betting, but be aware that the Davis is another Florida winter prep stakes with a reputation for being a black hole for favorites. They've lost five of the last six runnings.

This Shug McGuaghey-trained son of Into Mischief ($570,000 FTKNOV, $1.05 million KEESEP) debuted in the slop at Saratoga when fourth over six furlongs behind eventual 2-year-old champ Fierceness (a race that produced three next-out winners).

Then he led to mid-stretch, got passed by a flying 4-to-5 fave, and was necked for the place spot over the same distance Oct. 1 at Aqueduct.

In start number three at the Big A Nov. 4, this colt shot straight to the lead over a one-turn mile only to be reeled in by the No. 3-ranked Sierra Leone.

Coming off that second-place try, he tried seven furlongs at Gulfstream Dec. 17. Change of Command broke alertly, conceded the lead while stalking inside, edged up from third to second a half-mile out, then cut to the two path to go after the leader. Clearly in front by the five-sixteenths pole, Change of Command opened up under light encouragement to win by 6 1/2 lengths (77 Beyer).

Change of Command followed that up with an 83-Beyer allowance score Jan. 5 over 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream, capitalizing on a trouble-free stalking trip to wear down a pesky pacesetter.

Conquest Warrior | Lauren King

10) CONQUEST WARRIOR (c, City of Light–Tea Time, by Pulpit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-Betz/B&K Canetti/J.Betz/CoCo Equine/D.J. Stables (KY); T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,000,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $52,200. Last start: WON Jan. 13 Gulfstream MSW.

The massive-framed Conquest Warrior (City of Light) got sandwiched at the break, shuffled to last, then repeatedly ran into traffic while trying to uncoil in his maiden win in a Gulfstream one-turn mile Jan. 13.

Although his 84 Beyer for the first-time-Lasix effort didn't exactly leap off the charts, the victory was notable more for the “how he did it” factor rather than “how fast.” Its visual impression alone was worthy of 'TDN Rising Star' honors.

“I was surprised he broke the way he did,” McGuaghey said of the $1 million KEESEP colt. “I knew he'd be back and then finish. I was surprised by the effort he put in today with the trip he had for a young horse.”

McGuaghey's next-race preference for maiden-breaking 3-year-olds at this stage of the season is generally an allowance race at either Gulfstream or Tampa rather than a stakes.

11) MYSTIK DAN (c, Goldencents–Ma'am, by Colonel John) O/B-Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $510,110. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Southwest S.

Mystik Dan's 11-1 splashdown win by eight lengths in the Southwest S. represented a tactical turnaround that trainer Kenny McPeek had been trying to bring about via morning training after four previous starts in which this Goldencents colt had raced on or near the lead.

“He needed to learn how to rate,” McPeek said. “He needed to learn how to settle off horses and maintain that late punch, and we've been doing that in the morning every day.”

But considering the muddy, sealed track conditions at Oaklawn, it was a dicey gamble for jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. to intentionally take back and tuck in after Mystik Dan had broken alertly and attained good early position into the first turn.

“I was fortunate enough, my horse left there quick enough, but not overly quick, to where I was able to get behind the leaders and make my way over to the fence,” Hernandez said. “We were able to save ground on both turns. When we got to the second turn, I called on him and he picked it up. I was able to kind of just wait for a spot. When a seam opened up barely on the inside, he shot through there and did the rest for us.”

It helped that the two pacemaking favorites had already capitulated and that Mystik Dan only had to reel in the stretch leader with no other foes firing from the back of the pack.

But even though the pace setup was ideal, this homebred for Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby, and 4G Racing finished up under his own power with a final sixteenth timed in 5.93 seconds, an eye-catching fractional clocking considering Hernandez had dialed him down late.

The Beyer came back as 101, which is 19 points higher than Mystik Dan's last effort, but within range of the 96 this colt earned when sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs Nov. 12 at Churchill.

12) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $475,600. Last start: 4th Nov. 3 GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.

Timberlake (Into Mischief) got crowned a 'TDN Rising Star' in start number two on July 21, a nine-length blowout over seven furlongs at Ellis Park that yielded three next-out winners.

His beaten-favorite try in the GI Hopeful S. at Saratoga was hallmarked by a horror trip in which this Brad Cox trainee broke to the back, rushed up, then was continually boxed and blocked before bulling through to seize the lead at the eighth pole, only to get collared by a 54-1 shot in the final stages.

Bettors let him drift up to 4.9-1 odds in the GI Champagne S., and although the narrative of that race has unfairly evolved as Timberlake winning because odds-on Fierceness threw in a clunker, Timberlake was no slouch on his own merits. He edged up into a fast pace, swung eight wide for the drive, then put away a pesky foe at the eighth pole over a sloppy, sealed track.

Timberlake's trip to California for the Breeders' Cup was not a memorable one. He resisted efforts to settle on the first turn, then had no true response when urged for run on the second bend. He managed a no-factor fourth and has been freshened since.

Cox said last week the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn is a possible target for the Fair Grounds-based Timberlake.

“He's pointing for it,” Cox said. “We've got to see how our works go over the next several weeks, but he's doing well. The other race in play for him would probably be the [one-mile Mar. 2 GIII] Gotham [S.] at Aqueduct,” Cox said. “He did win up in New York.”

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“Against the house,” he says. “Had to talk my wife into that. Then I bought an old tanker and, my first trip out, I loaded up with chemicals headed for South Dakota. And all the way up there I'm thinking, 'Hey, this is really a good truck.' It just runs a little better all the way up. I get there, I get out, and it's empty. The seals got eaten up, en route, and I'd dumped the whole load. It happened to be a weed killer, so didn't hurt anything.”

“Except kill all the weeds all the way up to South Dakota,” interjects his son-in-law, Jason Loutsch, with a chuckle.

“So I get home that next day and my wife said, 'How'd your first delivery go?' 'Well, not so good. I just put $7,600 of the $10,000 on the road, and I don't have any invoice out.' So it was a rough start.”

That was 1979. Albaugh was in his late 20s and, within a couple of years, they had two infant daughters to feed as well.

“But you just kept at it,” he says with a shrug. “About '93, I bought out my biggest competitor and put the two companies together. After that we started growing real fast. And today we sell in 44 countries, we're manufacturing in nine, and we're the ninth biggest agricultural chemicals company in the world.”

So if he could achieve that in his business life, after such an unpromising start, then where might Albaugh take a racing program which, as we'll remind ourselves in a moment, could hardly have started more auspiciously? Well, we saw one answer to that last May, when Albaugh Family Stable achieved something quite incredible. From just 12 of the 10,000 eligible colts in the 2020 foal crop, no fewer than three made the gate for the GI Kentucky Derby, including the strong-finishing third. And the next cycle has started pretty well, too, with Catching Freedom (Constitution) laying down an early Derby marker in the Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn on New Year's Day.

Okay, so Miss Macy Sue was not the very beginning of the family's Turf adventure. First, in 2003, Loutsch put five grand into a gelding with a buddy at Prairie Meadows. They won a few small races, even placed in a stakes for Iowa-breds. It was a lot of fun, and Loutsch's father-in-law became interested.

“So when's he going to run again?” Albaugh asked.

“Oh, these horses only run every three or four weeks.”

“Well, let's get some more.”

And so, yes, after that the first meaningful play was a half-share in a Trippi filly for $42,000 at OBS in June 2005. They named her Miss Macy Sue for Albaugh's granddaughter, put her into training with Kelly Von Hemel, and she won a maiden at Hawthorne a few months later. The next year, she proved one of the quicker young sprinters on the local circuit, picked up some black-type at Prarie Meadows, Mountaineer.

But then, with maturity, she got on a serious roll. She won a listed race at Oaklawn, then a Grade III at Churchill. At the end of the year, they found themselves contesting the inaugural GI Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at Monmouth, and she came through traffic out of the one hole to grab third.

“She just kept going around the country winning,” Albaugh marvels. “Our first big involvement in the horse business. That horse spoiled us! And after a year or two, I was telling Jason, 'Let's get into this more.'”

Albaugh met Jerry Crawford on a plane one day and they talked about putting together a partnership to buy some colts. Under the Donegal Racing umbrella, Albaugh took 30% of one by El Prado (Ire) with Dale Romans. Paddy O'Prado ran third in the 2010 Derby before switching to grass and winning the GI Secretariat S.

On the racetrack, then, Albaugh was getting all the beginner's luck that had eluded him on that first truck ride to South Dakota. He decided to ride the wave, and suggested that Loutsch should manage a stable for the family in its own right. Duncan Taylor came up to Iowa and listened to the business plan, gave them a couple of names. Barry Berkelhammer of AbraCadabra Farm was one, and he has become a key player in selecting stock and then supervising their education in Florida. But Albaugh certainly meant business. Albeit the market was less demanding at that time, he wanted to pitch for 10 to 12 colts annually with a feasible Derby profile.

Yet it would turn out that the keystone had been in place all along. Albaugh had bought out his partner in Miss Macy Sue, so that he could retain her as a broodmare.

“We were up at Toronto, a very cold day,” Albaugh recalls. “And I said to Kelly, 'When will we know that we need to take this horse over to be a mother?' And he said, 'She'll tell us.' I'm like, 'Yeah?' Sure enough, that same day, at the end of the race [third as favorite], Kelly said, 'Look, it's like I said. She told us. It's time to breed her.'”

“She gave us everything,” Loutsch says. “Every race, she ran hard. She won our first graded stakes, won the Presque Isle Masters when it was worth $400,000. Her heart was so big. Every time she'd give full effort. Kelly said she'd run on glass. She was such a sound horse, too. Never an injury, never needed a surgery or any time off. And I think that's really carried over to her offspring.”

Albaugh rewarded Miss Macy Sue with some generosity of his own, sending her first to A.P. Indy and then to Unbridled's Song, at the time standing at $250,000 and $115,000, respectively. Her A.P. Indy filly managed a single start, but her Unbridled's Song colt brought $800,000 at the 2012 Keeneland September sale.

A developing program couldn't turn down seedcorn like that. Only he then turned out to be none-other-than Liam's Map. As they watched him earn a lucrative career at stud, Albaugh and his team vowed that Miss Macy Sue's latest yearling–a colt by Giant's Causeway–would not be sold at any price. And that, of course, is how he got his name.

“At the time, we were very excited to get $800,000,” Loutsch recalls. “We were just starting in the business, and that was a nice check.”

“Oh yeah, we were jumping up and down,” Albaugh agrees. “I was very happy. But after seeing all the success he had, and what he made to go to stud, we said about the next one: Not This Time.”

Unfortunately, the colt by the Iron Horse out of an iron mare derailed with an injury just as he was getting started. He'd won the GIII Iroquois S. by nine lengths and ran Classic Empire to a neck at the Breeders' Cup after giving him a start, the pair miles clear of Practical Joke.

“That was one of the fastest Juveniles ever,” Loutsch says. “And we just went out wide on the last turn. It was so close. We saw what a special talent he was that day.”

“But then we got the call from Dale Romans that he was done racing,” Albaugh remembers. “Today, of course, we're very happy with what he's doing in the stallion barn. But this business is high and lows and that was certainly a low moment.”

Not This Time started out with TaylorMade at just $15,000, but has now soared to 10 times that fee, with five Grade I winners from his first three crops.

“I think what's really great is that they're so versatile,” Loutsch remarks. “They're short, they're long. Dirt, turf. He's had Sibelius win the Group 1 over six on dirt in Dubai; Epicenter caught at the wire when it looked like he had the Derby won; and now Up to the Mark going from a mile to a mile and a half on grass. So I think Not This Time is just like his sire. Giant's Causeway got all types, and I think that's what he's throwing out too.”

Classic Empire nearly redeemed his debt to the Albaugh team in the Derby last year, his son Angel Of Empire closing from 10th to third in the stretch. Simply to have three horses earn the necessary starting points, however, was itself astonishing.

“One of them only got cleared [to run] on the day,” Albaugh recalls. “You hate to see that, for someone to have to pull a horse out of a Kentucky Derby. But we figured the odds, oh, it was in the thousands. We had to go way back to the '30s to find somebody else that had three runners, and then it was a partnership of many people.”

If nothing else, their feat showed the merit of focus. Because this whole program is oriented to precisely those two minutes at Churchill on the first Saturday in May. (And by the way, while they don't wish to dwell on a negativity that disappoints them in the industry, Albaugh and his family are adamant that those two minutes would not hold the same mystique on a synthetic surface).

“The Derby, in my opinion, is the best race in the whole world,” Albaugh declares. “It's the one that we have our targets set on, every year. You come into that March, April timetable and try to figure out which of all these prep races you want to be in, and you move the horses around, New York or Miami, Fair Grounds or Oaklawn.”

“The next Kentucky Derby is going to be No. 150, so there have only been 149 winners that anyone could own,” Loutsch says. “We feel it's such a prestigious event, like the Masters in golf. This is our Super Bowl. So, yes, that's our goal: someday we want to win that thing. And we were so close last time. Going into the gate with the favorite, it was a special feeling. And he gave us a thrill. I've always wanted to know what that must feel like, having a chance to win the Kentucky Derby as they're running down the lane. And 'Angel' gave us that.”

The Pennsylvania-bred had been found for just $70,000 deep in the Keeneland September sale, where the stable had also recruited its two other Derby shots, Jace's Road for $510,000 and Cyclone Mischief for $450,000, both from Book 1.

“September is pretty much the sale we shop at every year,” Loutsch explains. “And since 2015, when Dennis came up with this program to buy colts to get to the Derby, I think we've had 10 horses that have made it across six different years. So our strike-rate has been good, and we have a great team that helps us get to our goal.

“With Angel, we'd left the sale and felt like we were a colt or two short of where we wanted to be. So I asked Dennis if I could just spend $75,000-100,000, looking for something in Book 4 or 5 with the pedigree to get two turns. And from there it's all just luck, obviously. But he was a big, rangy, good-looking colt that just fell through the cracks and it worked out for us.”

The latest to rekindle the dream, Catching Freedom, was a Book 1 find at $575,000.

“That's our sweet spot, the four-to-six range,” Loutsch says. “That's where we gravitate to.”

Catching Freedom started his career at Churchill in the fall, winning on debut before meeting heavy traffic in an allowance race. He evidently learned from that experience, weaving through the field in the Smarty Jones, albeit still green as he organized himself on the outside to kick clear in the stretch.

Angel of Empire won the same race last year and their trainer Brad Cox sounds inclined to stay on the same route with Catching Freedom, with the GII Risen Star S. as a potential springboard to the GI Arkansas Derby.

Whatever that colt can do next, Albaugh Family Stable continues to consolidate. It would have been more typical of our business for Not This Time, retained after his sibling became a star, to have turned out a dud. As it is, he's brought a whole new dimension to the adventure. For a start, there were the 10 mares acquired at the 2017 Keeneland January sale to launch his stud career, including one that was sold on carrying his first Grade I winner, Princess Noor. And now the program that took the risk of keeping Not This Time is finding itself close to self-sufficiency, thanks to his growing stud revenue.

“I'm excited,” Loutsch says. “Dennis has obviously put a lot of money into this business, so it's great that he will finally get to reap the benefits and get a nice check every year instead of just putting more in. We've just been very patient, stayed with the plan, and it's ended up working out.”

When things do go well, it's even better with family. But when you get the inevitable tougher days, well, those are better, too. So even when Angel of Empire flew too late in the Derby last year, they knew to savor even a bittersweet experience.

“It was tough because you always have the 'what ifs'?” Loutsch acknowledges. “What if he'd come inside? All these questions you ask yourself, because how many times do you think you're going to be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby? I mean, that might be our only time ever. So the one thing that we made sure of was that we had a fun week. It was always the same, right back to Miss Macy Sue. Of course we like to win, but it's also about all those fun places she took us, as a family, just hanging out and experiencing the whole atmosphere together.”

“She's still living a good life,” Albaugh stresses of the mare who started it all. “We quit breeding her about three years ago, she'd lost a couple of babies and we weren't going to put her through that anymore. We did think about bringing her to Iowa, so we could see her more often. But we get ice in winter, and she wouldn't want that. But what's neat is that when we come to Kentucky, we can look up the hill and see where Macy's at. And then, right below, in the stallion barn we've got her son.”

Which is just as it should be: a family stable. Few programs are registered that way, and there's no mistaking the genuine, intergenerational bond achieved by this one. The husband of Albaugh's oldest granddaughter, for instance, is not just working for the chemicals company, but also enthusiastically embracing the racing. Likewise Mick, the brother who stayed on at the farm when Albaugh went out into the world.

“The whole family are in it,” Albaugh says. “My brother, my daughters, everyone. The one problem is that when we go to one of these big races, we have more than a plane load. We have to run a plane back and forth two or three times to get them all there. But it's a lot of fun to have them all sat down together–especially when you get down to that winner's circle.”

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1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist–Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $96,600. Last start: WON Nov. 19 GIII Bob Hope S.

Nysos has won two West Coast sprints with devastating ease by a combined 19 1/4 lengths while pairing Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 97, earning 'TDN Rising Star' accolades, and giving off the impression he has the mental makeup and physical prowess to handle tougher competition at longer distances.

This Nyquist colt out of a Bernardini mare went through the auction ring three times ($130,000 KEENOV, $150,000 FTKOCT, $550,000 OBSAPR) before debuting over six furlongs Oct. 21 at Santa Anita. Seeing a Bob Baffert trainee win at first asking by 10 1/2 lengths isn't exactly a shocker, but not too many colts from that barn run up the score by such a gaudy margin while going off at 6-1 in the betting.

Start number two was the seven-eighths GIII Bob Hope S. at Del Mar Nov. 19, and that four-horse race ended up being more or less a schooling session for 2-5 fave Nysos, who, racing with blinkers off, broke alertly and settled in last while always in touch with the leaders behind brisk splits. His sustained move enabled him to power past overmatched rivals while well in hand and never being asked for maximum effort, scoring by 8 3/4 lengths.

Nysos has since recorded four regularly spaced workouts at Santa Anita and seems certain to next surface in a two-turn stakes, perhaps the Jan. 27 GIII Southwest S. over 1 1/16 miles or the Feb. 3 GIII Lewis S. at a mile.

For the third straight year, Churchill Downs has banished Baffert related to Medina Spirit's drug DQ from the 2021 Derby, and his trainees are prohibited from earning qualifying points. However, the focus for TDN's Top 12 writeups will be on where Baffert's horses fit in the overall Derby picture and not the trainer's eligibility status.

2) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $1,102,750. Last start: WON Nov. 4 GI FanDuel Breeders Cup Juvenile.

A two-prep path to Louisville–the Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S. and Mar. 30 GI Florida Derby–is trainer Todd Pletcher's plan for GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile victor and likely 2-year-old champ Fierceness.

This 'TDN Rising Star' and Repole Stable homebred by City of Light powered home by 11 1/4 lengths (95 Beyer) as the 11-10 winner of his debut sprint at Saratoga over a sealed, muddy track. That wet-track fondness didn't carry over to the sloppy

GI Champagne S. at Aqueduct, when the odds-on Fierceness lunged and got bumped at the break, loomed boldly with a four-wide move, then splashed home punchless in the stretch.

Off that seventh-place drubbing, the betting public abandoned Fierceness at 16-1 in the Breeders' Cup. He responded by trouncing the Juvenile field by 6 1/4 lengths en route to a 105 Beyer victory.

This colt checked a lot of boxes that day by showing speed in hand from the gate, a willingness to latch onto a pacemaker, good responsiveness to cues to quicken, and an ability to ratchet into a higher gear without appearing fully torqued before galloping out well ahead of everyone else.

Fierceness only had to repel one single bid in upper stretch before cruising home in the Juvenile, a race in which the top three betting choices all failed to fire without obvious excuse. The fizzling of the faves might have indicated that the race wasn't that deep. But now, two months in the rear-view mirror, the Juvenile looks like it could be shaping into a key race, with its strength on paper solidifying after two of the four horses to run back won stakes in their next-out starts.

Fierceness | Benoit

The biggest hurdle for Fierceness might end up being historical: Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Kentucky Derby wins from 39 runnings (Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016). Even some of the most electrifying 2-year-olds who excelled over 1 1/16 miles on the first Saturday of November have had trouble outrunning that daunting metric going 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

3) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

Muth (Good Magic) was named a 'TDN Rising Star' June 18 when he uncorked an 8 3/4-length debut win. With four total races at age two that included two routes and a Grade I win in the American Pharoah S., trainer Bob Baffert opted to sharpen this colt's speed by picking the Jan. 6 GIII San Vicente S. at seven furlongs for Muth's first start at three.

This $190,000 KEESEP and $2 million OBSMAR colt earned a no-nonsense win by assertively stalking two pacemakers and breaking away at will to earn a 91 Beyer in the San Vicente, meaning Muth has now run at least a 90 Beyer in all five lifetime races.

“This horse has a lot of class. He's learning a lot,” said jockey Juan Hernandez, who has been aboard Muth for all three wins and two seconds. “I think he finally learned to run by himself because he broke really quick, and he saw the other two horses in front of me and he just relaxed really well behind them.”

Muth ran second behind Fierceness in the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita. He enjoyed a primo stalking trip over his home track, and seemed poised to take off in tandem with that rival on the far turn. But by the quarter pole Muth was already being driven hard, and he had no response to match Fierceness's full-flight winning move.

Fierceness holds the head-to-head edge. But Muth owns the broader body of work, and I wouldn't bet against him the next time he hooks up with Fierceness.

Given that these two colts are based on opposite coasts, that rematch is unlikely to happen until the Kentucky Derby itself.

4) BORN NOBLE (c, Constitution–Zapperkat, by Ghostzapper) 'TDN Rising Star' O-St Elias Stable & West Point Thoroughbreds; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $725,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $36,000. Last start: WON Dec. 30 Gulfstream MdSpWt.

Bet to 13-10 favoritism first time out going seven furlongs at Gulfstream, Born Noble (Constitution) immediately put himself into the race, pressing the pacemaking second-fave from the outside.

Irad Ortiz Jr. nudged this $725,000 KEESEP colt forward, got on even terms with the leader through the turn, and by the quarter pole forced his foe into submission while still being hand-ridden.

But once alone on the lead and set down for the drive, Born Noble came unglued, veering sharply inward despite left-handed stick work and a right-handed yank of the reins. He remained on his left lead until just prior to the sixteenth pole, but Ortiz's rousing did spark a noticeable uptick in acceleration through mid-stretch before Born Noble got geared down while 5 1/2 lengths clear under the wire.

The post-race focus might be on this firster's obvious greenness. But a glimmer of gravitas also shone through, and in the long view, Born Noble's zig-zagging antics didn't resonate as anything that can't be smoothed out with experience.

He earned 'TDN Rising Star' status and a 93 Beyer–although precise figure-making can get tricky on a day like Dec. 30, when a “good” Gulfstream surface was drying out to “fast” and there were only three total dirt races (all at different distances) for comparison on the card.

5) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $96,750. Last start: 2nd Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Sierra Leone (Gun Runner), the FTSAUG $2.3 million sales topper, in some ways ran a better race than winner Dornoch (Good Magic) when on the losing end of a nose photo in the nine-furlong GII Remsen S. Dec. 2.

That's because this Chad Brown trainee built up serious back-of-the-pack momentum when rallying from last over a sealed, muddy track. His big, sweeping, seven-wide move was notable on a day when speed was so dominant in 10 races at Aqueduct that five winners wired their fields and the remaining five were either right up on the pace or re-rallied after losing their leads.

Sierra Leone sling-shotted to the lead but lugged in once it looked like he'd blow past Dornoch, who resiliently clawed back command while pinned near the inside rail. The two co-earned 91 Beyers.

Sierra Leone | Coglianese

It was a costly lack of late-race focus in terms of the race outcome, but still, it's the type of lapse you'd rather see in December than in the spring. It was only Sierra Leone's second lifetime start, and two turns against stakes company is never a slam-dunk for a first try off a debut maiden win, even one that stamped him as a 'TDN Rising Star'.

Brown told DRF.com post-win that Sierra Leone reminds him a bit of Early Voting, another Gun Runner colt he trained to a win in the 2022 GI Preakness S.

“Now that he's lugged in [twice], I'll fool around with a little equipment to straighten him out,” Brown told DRF. “He's got a world of ability so we'll take him down [to Florida], regroup a little bit, and map out a campaign that hopefully gets him to the first Saturday in May.”

6) PARCHMENT PARTY (c, Constitution–Life Well Lived, by Tiznow) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-B Flay Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $450,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $141,960. Last start: WON Nov. 9 Churchill AOC.

'TDN Rising Star' Parchment Party, a large-framed June 5 foal, rallied stoutly up the rail from last and determinedly churned his way through traffic when winning a two-turn Churchill allowance Nov. 9 with a four-wide sweep. This son of Constitution wasn't fully dialed in and a looked touch unfocused through the final furlong, but he also wasn't even close to scraping bottom effort-wise, either.

The third- and fourth-place horses in that race won allowance and stakes engagements in their next-out starts.

Parchment Party is bred on the same cross that produced Tiz the Law, who won multiple Grade I stakes in 2020 (Travers, Florida Derby, the nine-furlong Belmont S.), plus fellow 'Rising Star' and 2022 GIII Peter Pan S. victor We the People.

A $450,000 KEESEP colt out of trainer Bill Mott's barn, Parchment Party got sent to Payson Park following his 2-for-2 start, but he hasn't had a published workout since Dec. 16.

7) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L & N Racing LLC, Clark O Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-1-1, $165,000. Last start: WON Dec. 23 Gun Runner S.

Track Phantom, a $500,000 KEESEP colt by Quality Road, doesn't leap out as a no-brainer Derby prospect. But the speed-centric winner of the Gun Runner S. does have upside appeal when you read between the lines of his past performances.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has started him four times, twice in one-turn miles and twice at 1 1/16 miles, with a Beyer progression of 74, 81, 88 and 89. Yet one intangible that doesn't come across on paper is how level-headedly Track Phantom has dealt with keyed-up rivals to his inside in both of his two-turn races.

In his Nov. 25 maiden-breaker, he forced the fractions with a rank runner pinned down at the fence from the entrance of the first turn to the start of the second, then repulsed a challenge from the only other horse to draw within a half-length on the turn. Roused for run three-sixteenths out, this colt showed a hint of another gear a furlong from the wire before being wrapped up late.

Facing winners for the first time against stakes company at Fair Grounds, Track Phantom was keen to make the lead from his outside post in the Gun Runner S., but a 36-1 speedster slipped up the open rail. The duo sparred down the backstretch before Track Phantom seized the lead three-eighths out and held off bids from two fresh challengers, including the 1-2 favorite.

“It's impressive that both of his two turn races have been victories,” Asmussen said post-win. “I actually thought they went too fast in the middle [of the Gun Runner]. You know, [a :46.93 half] here in a two-turn race, you don't see horses see it out very often.”

The Jan. 20 GII Lecomte S. is next.

8) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $257,400. Last start: WON Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Dornoch (Good Magic) figures to be one of the more intriguing story lines as Derby 150 approaches because he's a full brother to last year's Derby winner, Mage.

This $325,000 KEESEP colt started off his career for trainer Danny Gargan with a pair of seconds, one in a Saratoga maiden sprint and another in the Sapling S. going a mile at Monmouth. He then wired a 1 1/16-mile maiden field at Keeneland Oct. 14, running up the score by 6 1/2 lengths.

Dornoch (inside) | Sarah Andrew

Dornoch won the Remsen S. at Aqueduct by outsprinting five other rivals for the lead into the first turn over a speed-favoring track. Settling at the fence while pressured by a 27-1 shot, he knocked back bids from a couple of new challengers on the far turn, then fought gamely to surge back in front after seemingly being passed for good by Sierra Leone.

He also brushed the rail in upper stretch, yet somehow overcame that too.

“It's crazy. Usually when a horse hits the rail at the eighth pole like he did, they just stop running altogether,” Gargan said post-win. “I can't believe he re-rallied after that. He did see the other horse and get running back at him, but hitting the rail knocked him off stride and then it took him a few jumps to get back going.”

Gargan mentioned the Mar. 2 GII Fountain of Youth S. over 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream as a possible next start, with the Feb. 3 GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct in the mix (which would be a second straight nine-furlong race for Dornoch).

9) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution–Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $237,350. Last start: WON Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S.

Catching Freedom (Constitution) broke his maiden in a one-turn mile at Churchill, ran a credible fourth behind Parchment Party in a 1 1/16-mile allowance, then annexed the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn with a long, grind-'em-down rally (87 Beyer).

This $575,000 KEESEP colt rode the rail near the back in his stakes debut, sliced between rivals entering the far turn, got second run at a dueling duo, spun widest in the five path, then finished in workmanlike fashion with his head cocked to the grandstand before widening the winning margin to 2 1/2 lengths.

“Very proud of the horse,” trainer Brad Cox said post-win. “I think he's still learning. I think he was a little green there down the lane, but overall showed that he does have a lot of stamina and talent.”

Catching Freedom is a half-brother to Bishops Bay (Uncle Mo), a stakes-placed sophomore who raced four times for Cox (different owners) in 2023. That colt had the distinction of posting Beyers of 97, 88, 97 and 96, and in one of those races Bishops Bay was beaten only a head by subsequent Belmont S. and Travers S. winner Arcangelo (Arrogate).

10) CHANGE OF COMMAND (c, Into Mischief–Moi, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales history: $570,000 Wlg '21 FTKNOV; $1,050,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $113,300. Last start: WON Jan. 5 Gulfstream AOC.

It took four well-spaced starts for this son of Into Mischief ($570,000 FTKNOV, $1.05 million KEESEP) to bust out of the maiden ranks at 2-5 odds at Gulfstream. But he's now won two in a row in Florida after an 83-Beyer allowance score Jan. 5 over 1 1/16 miles, capitalizing on a trouble-free stalking trip to wear down a pesky pacesetter.

Despite winning by a neck, trainer Shug McGuaghey said Change of Command “didn't want to finish as well as I'd like. I've got to do some work to figure things out. I hope this moves him forward. He had to kind of belly down and run, so that should help him. We'll take him back to Payson and find out.”

Change of Command had previously compiled a robust set of company lines while finishing respectably behind well-regarded juveniles in New York.

11) ETHAN ENERGY (c, Uncle Mo–Sass and Class, by Harlan's Holiday) O-Stonestreet Stables LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $34,250. Last start: Won Dec. 23 FG MdSpWt.

This Fair Grounds maiden-breaker for trainer Brad Cox hit the winner's circle in start number two Dec. 23, adding Lasix. removing blinkers, and stretching to 1 1/16 miles for a 5 1/4-length tally (83 Beyer).

Under a light hold on the outside while midpack behind a tepid tempo, Ethan Energy was encouraged to loop the group on the far turn. This Stonestreet homebred son of Uncle Mo stayed on and opened up under mild rousing through the lane, then got pushed out late under a steady hand ride before being geared down for the final stages.

His debut at Keeneland, in which Ethan Energy was off last and allowed to lag with only mild progress inside, has thus far yielded three next-out maiden winners. One of them, Legalize (Constitution), also won the Sugar Bowl S., which was two races later on the same card as Ethan Energy's maiden score.

12) CARBONE (c, Mitole–Treasure in Heaven, by Street Sense) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-L William & Corinne Heiligbrodt (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $153,000. Last start: WON Dec. 31 OP AOC.

This 'TDN Rising Star's sire, Mitole, was the blitzingly fast 2019 champion male sprinter. But there are enough longer-distance influences in Carbone's pedigree (Giant's Causeway and Seattle Slew up top, Street Sense for a damsire) to think he might stay on as a horse of interest as the prep season progresses.

Carbone has been in front at every call in his 2-for-2 career for trainer Steve Asmussen, and this homebred for William and Corinne Heiligbrodt has paired 85 and 86 Beyers while stretching out from six furlongs to a mile.

In his Oaklawn allowance win, Carbone effortlessly controlled the tempo and really only faced one serious challenge on the far turn, opening up under his own power and toying with that rival whenever he edged closer.

His run into the stretch provided a nice visual, with jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. sitting chilly atop this colt while every other horse in his wake was being driven. Carbone won by four, but it could have been more had the race not finished at the sixteenth pole under Oaklawn's short-stretch configuration for the mile distance.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: Dreams of Roses Take the Chill out of January appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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