Here's the proof. The other day, Carmouche was asked what's his best finish he has ever had in the Pennsylvania Derby? The 37-year-old rider smiled – he's always smiling – and snapped back.

“Saturday,” he said. “It will be on Saturday.”

For the record, Carmouche's best finish in the signature race at Parx Racing came in 2017 when he checked in fourth aboard Game Over. That was his sixth career mount in the Derby.

Saturday, he'll be aboard Calumet Farms' Bourbonic in the Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby, a horse he rode to a stunning victory in the Wood Memorial in April at odds of 72-1.

“I will need some pace,” Carmouche said about his partner, who is 12-1 on the Derby morning line. “Hopefully, he will have the same kick that he had in the Wood and we can run them down.”

Being back in the saddle are soothing words for the native of Louisiana, who had a bummer of a summer.

Two races after riding Bourbonic to a fifth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes on June 5, Carmouche broke his right ankle when his mount Kentucky Pharoah leapt in the air and unseated the rider. The horse landed on his ankle, breaking it. Goodbye, summer.

Now he's back. And loving every second of it.

“I am ready. I am hungry,” Carmouche said. “I just want to succeed.”

Carmouche returned to the saddle on Sept. 5 and started his comeback at Parx, a place he has had plenty of success at.

He owns seven riding titles at Parx, including four straight from 2008-11.

In his second start back from the injury, he won. In 56 starts since his injury, Carmouche has seven wins, four seconds and six thirds.

Saturday, he'll have nine rides on the 13-race Parx card. Besides Bourbonic, he is also being reunited with Beach Haven Thoroughbreds LLC, Medallion Racing, Parkland Thoroughbreds and Barry Fowler's Maracuja in the Grade 1, $1 million Cotillion.

Carmouche rode Maracuja three times earlier this year before getting hurt. He missed the mount when Maracuja won the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga on July 24.

“I am happy to have Kendrick back on her,” Rob Atras, Maracuja's trainer, said. “He knows the filly. Obviously, he knows Parx. I know that definitely can't hurt.”

Carmouche's upbeat nature didn't sour when he watched Ricardo Santana Jr. win the Coaching Club American Oaks. It's not his way.

“I am always looking forward,” he said. “Life goes on, man. It's part of the game. Nobody wants to get hurt, but it happens. I just kept on pushing, kept on fighting. I am always in a good mood, you can never get me down. It's just the way I've always been.”

The post King Of Positivity Kendrick Carmouche Hopeful For Big Late Kicks From Bourbonic, Maracuja appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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With regular rider Ramon Vazquez aboard in the 1 1/8-mile race, Mr. Wireless left the gate well from post position fpur and took early position to the outside of Kinetic Sky and Bourbon Thunder, who had little separation from the start to midway on the final turn through moderate fractions of :23.82 for a quarter-mile, :47.86 for a half-mile, and 1:12.48 for three-quarters of a mile.

Mr. Wireless took over near the top of the stretch, opened up by three lengths, and held on to win by 1¼ lengths over Warrant, who rallied from fourth on the far turn. The final time on a track rated fast was 1:52.49.

Mr. Wireless returned $5.20 to win as the slight favorite over Warrant, who had defeated him in the Texas Derby. Third choice Bourbonic closed late for third.

Trainer Bret Calhoun, who won the 2019 West Virginia Derby with Mr. Money, watched this edition on a television monitor at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., where he saddled By My Standards in the Grade I Whitney Stakes.

“He had good position the whole way around,” Calhoun said of Mr. Wireless, a Kentucky-bred gelding by Dialed In. “It looked like the rider was sitting on a lot of horse. I think it was a trouble-free race, and when Ramon asked him, he did his job.

“I hate to get to looking too far ahead for a horse's next race, but I would say the (Grade I) Pennsylvania (Sept. 25) is very possible.”

Mr. Wireless is owned by JIL Stable (John and Iveta Kerber, who also bred him). Part-owner Jon Lapcnzenski traveled from Oklahoma to West Virginia as did 12 people from Iowa and Wisconsin, including two of the Kerbers' daughters. It proved well worth the trip.

“I couldn't see the start because of where I was standing and going into the first turn, I saw he was three-wide,” Lapcnzenski said. “But Ramon (does what Ramon does—he got the horse to relax. And Mr. Wireless does what he does. He has only given up the lead once in his career. When he gets the lead he's all heart.”

Mr. Wireless now has four wins and a second in six starts and earnings of $670,150.

The post Mr. Wireless Scores Second Consecutive Grade 3 Win In West Virginia Derby appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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After finding himself in front heading into the first turn, Mr. Wireless was soon headed by Kinetic Sky and Bourbon Thunder as the duo took up position to his inside while Warrant was a couple of lengths back in fourth through an initial quarter in :23.82. Latched onto the outside flank of Bourbon Thunder following a :47.86 half, the 8-5 favorite drew on even terms with the leading Bourbon Thunder on the far turn and soon put his head in front, inching clear turning for home. Offered some left-handed encouragement by Ramon Vazquez in early stretch, the gelding drifted out slightly late, prompting his rider to switch to a right-handed stick late, but the gelding had enough left in reserve to fend off Warrant by a length at the wire. The GII Wood Memorial winner Bourbonic closed from out of the clouds to be third.

“There was inside speed and he was able to sit off those two horses,” explained Vazquez. “He put himself into a good position, and when he got the lead and he kept going.”

Added trainer Bret Calhoun, “He was in good position the whole way around, and looked like the rider was sitting on a lot of horse. He ran a trouble-free race, and when Ramon asked him, he did his job.”

In regards to the gelding's next race, he said, “I hate to get too far ahead with these things, but I'd say the [GI] Pennsylvania Derby [Sept. 25] is very possible.”

Fifth in his career bow going six furlongs at the Fair Grounds Mar. 4, Mr. Wireless gained a narrow decision next time going a mile at Oaklawn Mar. 27 before making it two straight with a score adding a sixteenth at the Hot Springs oval May 1. Narrowly defeated by Warrant in the May 31 Texas Derby, the bay asserted his dominance last time, taking the July 7 GIII Indiana Derby at Indiana Grand.

Pedigree Notes:
Mr. Wireless is out of Voussoir (Arch), also responsible for the year-older Ain't No Elmers (Goldencents), who recently made the running in the GII Honorable Miss H. at Saratoga before finishing third. The 15-year-old mare is also responsible for a 2-year-old full-sister to the West Virginia Derby winner named Ain't Broke and a Goldencents colt foal. She was bred back to Gun Runner.

Saturday, Mountaineer
WEST VIRGINIA DERBY-GIII, $500,000, Mountaineer Casino & Resort, 8-7, 3yo, 1 1/8m, 1:52.49, ft.
1–MR. WIRELESS, 120, g, 3, by Dialed In
              1st Dam: Voussoir, by Arch
              2nd Dam: Blu Spur, by Northern Spur (Ire)
              3rd Dam: Seeking the Blue, by Seeking the Gold
O-JIL Stable; B-John & Iveta Kerber (KY); T-W. Bret Calhoun;
J-Ramon A. Vazquez. $311,500. Lifetime Record: 6-4-1-0,
$670,150. *1/2 to Ain't No Elmers (Goldencents), MGSP,
$268,435. Werk Nick Rating: A++. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Warrant, 118, c, 3, Constitution–Whisper Number, by First
Samurai. O-Twin Creeks Racing Stables, LLC; B-Twin Creeks
Farm (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. $100,000.
3–Bourbonic, 122, c, 3, Bernardini–Dancing Afleet, by Afleet
Alex. O/B-Calumet Farm (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. $50,000.
Margins: 1 1/4, 1HF, HF. Odds: 1.60, 1.80, 3.90.
Also Ran: Bourbon Thunder, Kinetic Sky, Americainaed. Scratched: Channel Fury.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.

The post Mr. Wireless Proves Best in the West Virginia Derby appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The trouble is that whoever came up with that plot should probably never get a job in Hollywood. For if Steve Asmussen is indeed to pass Dale Baird's all-time record Saturday, then any suitably imaginative scriptwriter would surely have contrived that he did so, not in this storied, $1-million race, corroborating his enshrinement five years ago in the adjacent Hall of Fame, but in the somewhat less resonant environs of Mountaineer Casino, Racetrack and Resort.

Sure, it would be apt for such a momentous landmark to evoke one of Asmussen's masterpieces, Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}), who in 2017 became his only Whitney winner (famously carrying a fifth shoe, the “rabbit's foot”, tangled in his tail). Silver State also represents his parents' old clients Winchell Thoroughbreds–in this instance, along with Willis Horton Racing–and the patient development of his potential is similarly exemplary of his trainer's dexterity.

Even so, there would arguably have been a still more pleasing symmetry to Asmussen instead breaking the tape in the GIII West Virginia Derby, a race that has so far contributed five wins (another record) to his overall tally. As it is, the 14 runners eligible to make history Saturday are confined to four other tracks–and Asmussen leaves undisturbed, this time, soil that was for decades the fiefdom of the very man whose place in the annals of the Turf he is about to supplant.

The Baird era here, spanning 20 consecutive training titles, straddled the transition from Waterford Park into pioneer racino; and was only ended by his shocking loss, at 72, in an automobile accident just before Christmas 2007. Just think: his nearest pursuer at the time, Jack Van Berg, was over 3,000 career wins behind.

But Baird never won the local Derby; never won a graded stakes of any description, in fact. He plied his trade in cheap claimers, sometimes rotating as many as 200 horses in a year, the majority in his own silks. Asmussen, in contrast, has given us a Horse of the Year four times in the last 13 years, becoming a paradigm of the “super trainer” elite who have transformed the horizons of their profession. In the process, having once amassed 650 winners in a single year, he has shown how these trainers must count delegation among their key skills.

Silver State training Saturday in Whitney preparation | Sarah Andrew

Sheer volume, as such, might appear to be the only challenge shared by the hometown trainer Baird and the federal power Asmussen. Nor, seemingly, could you obviously conflate their personalities. Baird was evidently a low-key type, reserved and unassuming, given to understated humor; Asmussen, as anyone can see, is a truly “spectacular” specimen. With his flamboyant looks and expressive bearing, he commands attention whether he's grinning or glowering.

But remember that both men honed their intuition in a family of horsemen. Baird's father, brother, son and nephew all embedded their surname in a training dynasty. And I love how the latter first clocked this vivid counterfoil to his uncle, at Presque Isle Downs one day: he saw Asmussen going down the shedrow to discuss a particular horse with one of his team and, as they spoke, instinctively grabbing a brush to groom the animal's opposite side.

Nobody has to tell Asmussen that Silver State represents only the apex of a pyramid with a very wide base. In his first year he won a single race, at Ruidoso Downs, and $2,324. Through his first decade, he started two horses in graded stakes. As he recently told colleague Bill Finley, everything “goes back to my mom and dad showing me that every horse in front of you is important… [that] every single horse was just as important as the next one.”

But this outlook, in turn, complements a voraciously competitive nature. In another of the many interviews to which he has graciously submitted in anticipation of his feat, Asmussen made candid and instructive reference to the intensity of his own character. “Either everything matters,” he said, “or nothing matters.”  Not an attitude that will endear everyone, perhaps–but one you have to love, if you're an owner or indeed a racehorse.

Asmussen was joined in the Hall of Fame by a handful of privileged rivals Friday, but its doors have never admitted Baird. He instead had to settle for a Special Eclipse Award, after becoming the first to 9,000 winners. Nonetheless you suspect that he would bestow a posthumous blessing on the man who is about to efface his record; and if it can't happen in the West Virginia Derby, then Baird would certainly settle for destiny instead summoning into the record books the gelding Asmussen fields under a $5,000 claiming tag at Louisiana Downs.

Another fitting memorial could yet be carved in the West Virginia Derby, by one of the latest Hall of Fame inductees–and surely among the most automatic ever. Because Todd Pletcher's runner Bourbonic, as a son of Bernardini, represents what has suddenly become a still more precious genetic resource.

The mighty Maxfield | Sarah Andrew

The silver lining to the loss of this most beautiful of stallions is that his precocious achievements as a broodmare sire already guarantee that his legacy will continue to evolve for many years yet. The Whitney, indeed, could well yield another garland for his daughter Velvety, the dam of Maxfield (Street Sense).

She's a half-sister to Sky Mesa (Pulpit), their Storm Cat dam in turn a sister to Bernstein, and this is the branch of the La Troienne dynasty that goes through Buckpasser's dam Busanda. It has corresponding seeding all the way through–next dams are by Affirmed, Round Table, Nasrullah and War Admiral–and Maxfield's Whitney performance will simply help to determine how affordable he may be as a truly aristocratic stud prospect.

Bernardini himself had suffered the indignity of a fee slide from $100,000 as recently as 2017 to $35,000 for his final spring. Yet his stature as broodmare sire had meanwhile redressed a couple of fallow campaigns for his own foals. To some of us, compounded distaff influences will always provide a sturdier foothold in a pedigree than the putative alchemies between sire lines. His Grade I-winning dam Cara Rafaela, for instance, was one of the markers laid down in a debut crop of just 32 named foals by her sire Quiet American, alongside two other significant females in champion Hidden Lake and the remarkable broodmare Quiet Dance, dam of one Horse of the Year and second dam of another.

Her grandson, of course, was none other than Gun Runner. And it so happens that Asmussen starts this momentous day by saddling a member of that horse's first crop, the Winchell homebred Under the Gun, in the opener at Saratoga. Later he gives a debut to Vodka Mardini, a son of Bernardini, who also features as sire of the barn's final runner on the card, Miner's Queen. So, actually, you know what? Maybe there is a decent scriptwriter up there after all.

The post This Side Up: Asmussen Poised to Convert Silver to Gold appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Breaking his maiden by open lengths for a $50,000 tag Dec. 6 at Aqueduct, the homebred repeated in a starter/optional claiming spot there Jan. 17 and was runner-up in a sloppy Parx allowance/optional claimer Feb. 23. Ambitiously spotted by Todd Pletcher off that run in the GII Wood Memorial S., the dark bay rewarded his trainer's confidence with a shocking last-to-first run to get up at 72-1. Unable to factor when 13th in the GI Kentucky Derby, he improved slightly when fifth in the GI Belmont S. June 5, but was still beaten double-digit lengths.

Brad Cox starts a pair of improving sophomores, most notably Twin Creeks Racing Stables' Warrant (Constitution). Graduating second out at six panels Feb. 16 at Fair Grounds, the homebred missed by a nose in a Keeneland allowance/optional claimer Apr. 3 before filling the same slot behind subsequent GIII Matt Winn S.-winning barnmate Fulsome (Into Mischief) in the Oaklawn S. May 1. Suffering a seemingly impossibly wide trip in the Texas Derby last out May 31 at Lone Star, the chestnut proved his resolve, surging late to a three-quarter length success.

The horse he wore down that day, Mr. Wireless (Dialed In), returned to win impressively in the GIII Indiana Derby July 7 at Indiana Grand and has been given the 9-5 morning-line preference here. A victory would give trainer Bret Calhoun back-to-back West Virginia Derby trophies after he scored with Mr. Money (Goldencents) in 2019 (the race was not held in 2020 due to the pandemic).

Other contenders in the seven-horse group include Bourbon Thunder (Quality Road), third at 30-1 against elders in a Saratoga allowance for trainer Ian Wilkes July 15, and Cox's other entrant Kinetic Sky (Runhappy), who most recently chased a sizzling pace before prevailing by 1 1/4 lengths in a Churchill allowance/optional claimer June 26.

The post Bourbonic Gets Class Relief in West Virginia Derby appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The 1 1/8-mile local fixture for 3-year-olds is carded as Race 8 on a nine-race program that begins at the special first post time of 2 p.m. EDT. The Derby post time is set for 5:35 p.m. The card includes the $200,000, Grade 3 West Virginia Governor's Stakes and five $75,000 stakes on the dirt and turf.

Mr. Wireless, a Kentucky-bred gelding by Dialed In, finished a troubled fifth in his career debut in Louisiana in March, but since then has gone three-for-four. He broke his maiden at Oaklawn Park later in March and then won an allowance race at the Arkansas track in early May.

Trainer Bret Calhoun then shipped him to Lone Star Park, where he finished second behind Warrant after a less-than-ideal journey. The Grade 3 Indiana Derby, which he won by 3 ¾ lengths while never worse than second, proved to be a breakout race for the Mr. Wireless, who is owned by JIL Stable and Jon Lapczenski.

Calhoun won the 2019 West Virginia Derby with Mr. Money, who like Mr. Wireless entered the race in top form. Mr. Wireless is the 9-5 morning-line favorite in the West Virginia Derby with regular rider Ramon Vazquez named.

“Everything has gone really well since his last start,” Calhoun said. “He's improving and steadily getting better. It seems like we're never getting to his bottom—he has a lot of stamina.”

Mr. Wireless has been training recently at Colonial Downs in Virginia with some of Calhoun's other horses. They had been at Churchill Downs in Kentucky, but horses had to leave for a few months due to reconstruction of the turf course.

“It has been great at Colonial, which is a very horse-friendly place,” Calhoun said. “He seems have thrived here. His races have all been very good—he had an excuse in his first start—and his two-turn races have been better. He faced Warrant once and finished second, but I think a couple of things could have gone differently that day.”

Calhoun, who will be at Saratoga Race Course Aug. 7 to saddle By My Standards in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes, said the plan is to ship Mr. Wireless to West Virginia the evening of Aug. 5 for a Friday morning arrival.

Bourbonic, owned and bred by Calumet Farm, posted a 72-1 upset in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct Racetrack in New York before finishing 13th in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby and fifth in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, the first and third legs of the Triple Crown, respectively. The colt by Bernardini is conditioned by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, who won the 2015 West Virginia Derby with Madefromlucky.

Three-time winner Bourbonic, the 3-1 third choice on the morning line, has been working regularly on the training track at Belmont Park in New York. Eric Cancel is named to ride.

“Bourbonic has trained well since the Belmont Stakes,” Pletcher said. “He needed a little freshener, and he has responded.”

Twin Creek Racing Stables' Warrant, who defeated Mr. Wireless in the Texas Derby in late May and hasn't raced since, is the 5-2 second choice on the morning line. He is trained by Brad Cox, who also entered Robert LaPenta's Kinetic Sky (6-1) in the Derby.

Warrant, never worse than third in five starts, worked a sizzling :59 2/5 for five furlongs at Ellis Park in Kentucky, Kinetic Sky, who worked the same time in company with Warrant, will make his stakes debut in the West Virginia Derby. Warrant will be ridden by Florent Geroux, while Joe Talamo is listed aboard Kinetic Sky.

The Derby wasn't run in 2020 because of COVID-19 restrictions and logistical issues with shippers from out of state. The race has a history of stops and starts, but it had been held for 22 consecutive years since 1998, when it returned to the Mountaineer calendar after a seven-year absence.

For this year, anyone attending the races in the grandstand or on the apron on West Virginia Derby day must purchase a ticket because patron attendance is limited to 1,500. To order tickets visit the Mountaineer Casino website.

In the event the limited number of tickets are not all purchased online, walk-up ticket purchases will be permitted on race day until the limit is reached. For those who don't have tickets, tailgating will be permitted on the grassy area that overlooks the backstretch and far turn.

Mountaineer will be offering advance wagering on the entire Derby program on Friday, Aug. 6, in the casino off-track betting area for those who may not wish to attend on race day. Online wagering is also available through various advance deposit wagering outlets including TVG.

$500,000 WEST VIRGINIA DERBY (Grade 3)

Post Horse Jockey Odds

1 – Bourbonic – Eric Cancel (3-1)

2 – Kinetic Sky – Joe Talamo (6-1)

3 – Bourbon Thunder – Deshawn Parker (8-1)

4 – Mr. Wireless – Ramon Vazquez (9-5)

5 – Warrant – Florent Geroux (5-2)

6 – Channel Fury – Malcolm Franklin (10-1)

7 – Americainaed – Joe Mussaro (50-1)

The post ‘Improving’ Mr. Wireless Headlines Saturday’s West Virginia Derby appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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“I talked to my doctor last night and I'm flying out tonight to Tennessee. He said both of the major bones on each side of my ankle are broken and I need surgery. They're going to do it tomorrow and will have to put a plate in one side of my ankle and a screw in the other,” said Carmouche, who was accompanied by his wife, Whitney, who is celebrating her 40th birthday on Sunday.

The surgeon will be the same one who repaired his broken right leg, also a result of a spill, in September 2018.

The latest mishap occurred two races after the rider had finished fifth on Bourbonic in the last leg of the Triple Crown series. Carmouche said that his horse, Kentucky Pharoah, reacted badly out of the gate, unseating him, and then a horse stepped squarely on that ankle as he was lying on the turf course.

Carmouche was transported to a local medical facility by ambulance Saturday night. On Sunday morning he was looking at the bright side of the situation, saying that he has no intention of staying sidelined for the entire Saratoga meet.

“I ain't missing nothing,” he said with a broad smile. “I'll be back, better than ever.”

To his many fans Carmouche tweeted, “Life is good. God is great, Lot of prayer, I'll see ya'll soon, Keep pushing!!!”

Kentucky Pharoah was caught by the outrider after completing the course and walked home.

Well Everyone I'm very sorry to tell y'all but I have Broken Ankle but life is Good God is Great lot of prayers I see y'all Soon keep it pushing !!!

— Kendrick Carmouche (@KendrickCarmou1) June 6, 2021

The post ‘I’ll Be Back, Better Than Ever’: Broken Ankle Sidelines Kendrick Carmouche appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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To read previous editions of The Haiku Handicapper, click here.

#1 – Bourbonic
Thirteenth in Derby
Accurate barometer
Of his class level

#2 – Essential Quality
Practically ran this
Going wide in the Derby
Still head of his class

#3 – Rombauer
Shocked the Preakness field
Is it a long-term form jump
Or just a bubble?

#4 – Hot Rod Charlie
Belongs in this spot
But “play against” is safe when
O'Neill tries this race

#5 – France Go de Ina
アメリカで
ぶどうを食べた
頑張るよ

Thanks to Japan Triple Crown recruiter Kate Hunter for writing this haiku in Japanese, fitting it within the format's syllable parameters in that language. Here's how it reads in English:

In America
I ate a lot of grapes
I will try my best

#6 – Known Agenda
Substitute rider
Shouldn't harm his otherwise
Sterling credentials

#7 – Rock Your World
Derby woes aside,
Are we sure he has the gas
To last on the lead?

#8 – Overtook
The one thing he has
Over Known Agenda is
A higher sale price

Prediction
“Quality” holds sway
Over game Known Agenda
Three, four fill super

The post The Haiku Handicapper Presented By Form2Win: 2021 Belmont Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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This week's Triple Crown feature ranks the Belmont entrants in “likeliest winner” order.

1) HOT ROD CHARLIE (c, Oxbow–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie) O-Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing LLC & William Strauss; B-Edward A Cox (KY); T-Doug O'Neill; J-Flavien Prat. Sales
history: $17,000 Ylg '19 FTKFEB; $110,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Equineline PPs.
This two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) has enough positive attributes to rate a narrow edge over the other top Belmont contenders. This son of Oxbow has a field-leading eight starts under his belt (last four Beyer Speed Figures: 94, 94, 99, 100), although his elite-level progression arc dates to lifetime start number five, a 94-1 runner-up effort in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. His Jan. 30 GIII Lewis S. third (beaten a neck in a three-way photo after stumbling at the break and jostling in deep stretch) stamped him as a seasoned competitor who can handle varying levels of pace pressure and in-race chaos. And even though Hot Rod Charlie wired the GII Louisiana Derby (never outkicked in a prolonged duel over the final 2 ½ furlongs), this tactically versatile colt is not a needs-the-lead speedster. In the Derby, Hot Rod Charlie kept his cool when briefly trapped on heels in the first quarter mile then stalked the pacemakers. Even though he looked poised to pounce three-sixteenths out, he was simply bested by the top two while digging in to run a very credible third. His connections aimed him for the Belmont straight away, even securing a commitment from in-demand Flavien Prat to ride back, which means Prat will be getting off his long-shot Preakness winner to honor this call. There are some trainer-related stats that are a cause for pause—Doug O'Neill is just 2-for-27 with dirt horses racing 10+ furlongs over the last five years, and he is only 3-for-34 at Belmont during that time. But what an accomplishment it would be for Hot Rod Charlie's dam, Indian Miss, to produce a 12-furlong Belmont winner after already foaling the 2019 sprint champ, Mitole.

2) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brad Cox; J-Luis Saez. Equineline PPs
Maybe you can win a bar bet this weekend knowing that the last time the beaten Derby favorite even ran in the Belmont was all the way back in 2003, when Empire Maker (who had skipped the Preakness) denied Funny Cide the Triple Crown. TDN Rising Star Essential Quality, fourth in Louisville at 2.9-1 odds, will likewise come in off a five-week freshening for this year's renewal, and this juvenile champ and 'TDN Rising Star' stands to benefit off that break after two demanding performances in April and May. Essential Quality had largely coasted through four straight wins at the start of his career without facing true in-race adversity or a heated stretch battle. But this athletic Tapit colt's GII Blue Grass S. score far and away rated as the most impressive–and arduous–prep race this spring (a round-the-track duel with a final furlong in :12.53), and it might have sapped him a touch for what ended up being a no-spark final two furlongs at Churchill. While it's true that Essential Quality endured mild roughhousing at the Derby break, Luis Saez opted to give up ground on both turns in order to work out the type of trip Essential Quality usually covets, stalking in fifth, outside and in the clear behind fast fractions. And yes, this colt delivered some fight when roused for run turning for home. But the effort lacked the emphatic punch of his previous races, setting up the $1.5 million Belmont question of whether Essential Quality can revert to divisional dominance when tasked with 12 furlongs. Over the last five years, trainer Brad Cox has zero wins and two in-the-money finishes from 12 dirt-race starters at 1 ¼ miles or longer.

3) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB}) O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher; Irad Ortiz, Jr. Sales History: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Equineline PPs
The narrative surrounding Known Agenda has always been that he's a longer-the-better colt who's cut out to be of Triple Crown caliber. And then there's the longer-term metric that shows trainer Todd Pletcher consistently knows how to spot Belmont-capable horses, with three wins and nine other in-the-money finishes in this race. But you have to buy into both of those lines of reasoning to forecast a Belmont win for this Curlin homebred for St. Elias Stable ($135,000 RNA at FTSAUG), because Known Agenda's ninth in the Derby doesn't yield many cogent clues that point to an obvious form reversal. Perhaps it's best to treat his blah Derby as a throwout—Known Agenda caught a super-clean gate break despite drawing the dreaded one hole in a 19-horse field, but jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. couldn't get him to settle, and the colt appeared uncomfortable parked inside while well back before passing only stragglers late. Known Agenda's GI Florida Derby win suggests he's capable of enduring a covered-up trip and finishing with gusto, but the difference in that race was that he nailed every single hole that opened with rail-skimming precision in what equated to a gift-trip type of run. Maybe in that respect the shorter field in the Belmont will work to Known Agenda's advantage. He should be able to establish a behind-the-speed position anywhere Ortiz wants him placed in the eight-horse pack, and Known Agenda's three wins already at nine furlongs provide a solid enough stamina base to build upon.

4) ROMBAUER (Twirling Candy–Cashmere, by Cowboy Cal) O/B-John & Diane Fradkin (Ky); T-Michael W. McCarthy; J-John Velazquez. Equineline PPs
A bet on Rombauer to win the Belmont is essentially a vote of confidence that his 11-1 Preakness victory was a career-defining turning point that elevated him to A-level status within the 3-year-old division. Turning point? Yes, most definitely–that was an efficient, sustained run he uncorked in Baltimore. But I'm not quite ready to commit to the “A-level status” part of that argument. This Twirling Candy homebred's Preakness score resonates more as a well-executed mid-pack stalking move that enabled Rombauer to collar two spent leaders 1 ½ furlongs from the wire while nobody else was firing with a fresh, serious challenge. The 102 Beyer that Rombauer earned for the effort looks sharp at face value, but it also represents a sizable 14-point jump above this colt's previous best, and improving upon that type of rating while stretching out to 12 furlongs against a deeper Belmont crew is going to be a much more difficult task. Having said all that, it's always worth respecting multi-surface stayers at any level of the game, and Rombauer has now won on grass, Tapeta, and dirt. John Velazquez gets the call because Flavien Prat had committed before the Preakness to ride Hot Rod Charlie in the Belmont–not a bad pickup for the Rombauer team considering the vast Belmont Park oval is the Hall-of-Fame rider's home track.

5) ROCK YOUR WORLD (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker) O-Hronis Racing LLC & Talla Racing LLC; B-Ron & Deborah McAnally (KY); T-John Sadler; J-Joel Rosario. Sales History: $650,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Equineline PPs
There's not much question that Rock Your World absorbed the worst of the multi-horse crunch out of the starting gate in the Derby. He got pinballed back to last (but righted himself professionally), picked off half the pack before the first turn, then gave up serious real estate on both bends. He covered 6,733 feet according to Trakus, the most in the 19-horse field and 90 feet more than the Derby winner. Rock Your World also got hip-checked pretty solidly at the top of the lane, and jockey Joel Rosario kept him in coast mode through the final furlong to save something for another day. This Saturday is the highly anticipated “reset” race for this $650,000 KEESEP colt by Candy Ride (Arg), but that horror trip in the Derby is sure to be baked into Rock Your World's underlaid pari-mutuel price, which I suspect will fall below his 9-2 morning line based on perceptions he could get away as the lone speed. Trainer John Sadler has said all along that Rock Your World is a smooth-energy horse whose maturity just needs to catch up to his large frame. And while the Kentucky Derby was an ambitious placement for a 3-for-3 colt who had only once won on dirt, that one non-turf victory in the GI Santa Anita Derby did come over Medina Spirit (Protonico), the next-out victor in the first leg of the Triple Crown.

6) BOURBONIC (Bernardini–Dancing Afleet, by Afleet Alex) O/B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. J-Kendrick Carmouche. Equineline PPs
One theory going into the Derby was that if Bourbonic could close into such a pedestrian pace to win the GII Wood Memorial (the 1:54.49 clocking for nine furlongs was the slowest in the history of that stakes), he could be an off-the-tailgate threat in Louisville with a more robust pace to set up the tempo in his favor. It didn't work out that way. This Calumet homebred by Bernardini lagged in second-last behind closer-conducive fractions of :23.09 and :46.70 but never really fired, winding up 13th. Breaking from post one in the Belmont, it's unlikely that trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Kendrick Carmouche will want to alter the same save-ground-for-one-run strategy. But regardless of how the fractions unfold in front of him, Bourbonic is still going to have to come up with at least 15 points worth of Beyer improvement to be on par with the top contenders. Pedigree-wise though, it's hard not to notice that both of this colt's grandsires (A.P. Indy and Afleet Alex) were Belmont S. winners.

7) OVERTOOK (Curlin–Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy) O-Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier & Derrick Smith. B-Hill 'N' Dale Equine Holdings Inc. & Philip Steinberg (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. J-Manny Franco. Sales History: $1,000,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Equineline PPs
This $1-million KEESEP colt by Curlin sports one lifetime win in a one-turn MSW mile last December but has been luckless twice while second and third over nine furlongs in two Grade III stakes since then. He has a grind-it-out way of going but hasn't been able to string together consistent performances, and is now hiking way up in class in the hope that the added distance will awaken him at a huge mutuel. Trainer Todd Pletcher adds blinkers. He is 2-for-20 with that equipment change in all graded stakes over the past five years (while 0-for-3 in just Grade Is).

8) FRANCE GO DE INA (Will Take Charge–Dreamy Blues, by Curlin) O-Yuji Inaida; B-Betz, Kidder, B & K Canetti & Jim Betz (Ky); T-Ricardo Santana Jr.; J-Joel Rosario; Sales History: $100,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Equineline PPs.
Prior to the Preakness, the connections of France Go de Ina had announced an intention to remain stateside and run in the Belmont if the colt came out of the race healthy. The presence of a Japan-based horse in a Triple Crown event means the race can be simulcast into that country, so there are financial implications that work in favor of the host tracks if they court these imports. But it's difficult to make a plausible case that this $100,000 KEESEP yearling (by Will Take Charge out of a Curlin mare) will improve drastically off his subpar Preakness seventh against a more daunting field in the Belmont. In Baltimore, jockey Joel Rosario tried an aggressive, mid-race rush to try and catch the leaders unaware. That strategy didn't do anything to aid France Go de Ina's chances, but it did help to soften up the leaders for Rombauer's winning run. Now three weeks later, Rosario will be riding expected Belmont pacemaker Rock Your World. It will be an interesting twist of fate if France Go de Ina's new rider, Ricardo Santana Jr., opts to apply similar mid-race pressure that could alter the complexion of the pace at a crucial point in the 12-furlong journey.

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True, the methods of Brad Kelley and his team sometimes strike the orthodox observer as idiosyncratic, to put it mildly. But it makes sense to write a new chapter, in their own hand, rather than try to retrace the calligraphy of a bygone, irretrievable age. To some of us, moreover, the ends implicit in the Calumet program are as exemplary as the means can admittedly appear quixotic.

The volume is certainly industrial, yet with a superb contempt for the commercialism that sustain operations on a similar scale elsewhere. And someday the unfashionable values condensed in the stallion roster–hardiness, stamina, old-school genes and a good dash of turf quality–will perhaps be prized as critical to the regeneration of a breed corroded by short-term “pragmatism”: by pharmaceutical training, for instance, or fast-buck breeding.

These happen to be precisely those assets required in the GI Belmont S., the 153rd running of which has corresponding potential to measure the progress of the Calumet revival.

Most obviously, that's because the farm silks are carried by Bourbonic (Bernardini), winner of the GII Wood Memorial before failing to get involved in a GI Kentucky Derby dominated by those closer to the pace. His longshot success at Aqueduct had vindicated Calumet's familiar indifference to the wagering odds, and if Bourbonic can do the same Saturday, then you could measure his achievement against the rather surprising fact, given its record in the other Classics, that the farm has hitherto raced only two Belmont winners.

Both, moreover, were completing a Triple Crown. Of course, Alydar's epic duel with Affirmed, completing their Triple Exacta, arguably gave him as resonant a place in Calumet history as Whirlaway (1941) or Citation (1948), but one way or another Pensive (1944), Tim Tam (1958) and Forward Pass (1968) all found the Belmont a bridge too far.

Bourbonic is something of a bonus, having been acquired in utero when his Grade II-winning dam Dancing Afleet (Afleet Alex) was recruited to the broodmare band for $170,000 at the Keeneland November Sale of 2017. Arguably, then, the stakes are barely less high in Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow), who is throwing a lifeline to a stallion drifting perilously close to the weir.

Oxbow entered Kelley's ownership just as he was ramping up his ambitions on the Turf, purchased for $250,000 at the 2011 September Sale the year before he took over Calumet. Bred by Colts Neck Stables, he had a wonderful two-turn pedigree: by Awesome Again out of an unraced sister to Tiznow (and so to Budroyale and the rest of the crew).

His debut at Saratoga the following summer could scarcely have been less auspicious, pulled up and vanned off. Within the year, however, he had completed a hectic career under D. Wayne Lukas. Having required another three attempts to break his maiden, he ran fourth in the GI Futurity on the synthetic at Hollywood Park. Lukas then put him through monthly Derby trials and, though his performances were uneven, they did include an 11-length romp in the GIII Lecomte S. and a narrow defeat by Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song) in the GII Rebel S.

Lukas had laid his foundation and Oxbow's sixth to Orb (Malibu Moon) was a fine effort in what remains the last Derby to set up for a closer, stubbornly the last to relent among those exposed to the pace. Able to control a less exacting tempo at Pimlico, he duly lasted home for Calumet's eighth GI Preakness.

Proceeding to the Belmont, he was thwarted only by Palace Malice (Curlin) and duly qualified as the premier overall achiever across the Classics that year. Unfortunately, he then emerged from the GI Haskell Invitational with an ankle injury that brought down the curtain, but Oxbow had established himself as a throwback, speed-carrying scrapper with a pedigree worth recycling.

With the new regime at Calumet evidently finding its feet, Oxbow was launched with 110 mares at Taylor Made, but he came “home” for 2015. Here, with the broodmare band expanding, he was favored with a remarkable sequence of books, corralling 134, 153 and 187 covers through his second to fourth years.

Hot Rod Charlie is a graduate of that monster fourth book. By the time Bob and Sean Feld picked him out as a $17,000 short yearling, the last horse from the estate of Edward A. Cox Jr., Oxbow had already been renounced by the commercial market. Even the rise of his half-brother Mitole (Eskendereya) could not inflate an inspired pinhook beyond $110,000 when Dennis O'Neill found him back at Fasig-Tipton that October.

The big question is whether Hot Rod Charlie has broken out in time to redeem his sire. Oxbow's next three books plunged giddily to 78, 23 and 15. On the face of it, you would have to conclude that the Calumet team had themselves come to the same conclusion as the market. From nearly 600 covers across his first four seasons, he hadn't really seized his chance.

True, he came up with GII Gulfstream Oaks winner Coach Rocks from his first crop. But Oxbow had only one other graded stakes winner before Hot Rod Charlie, who will duly be credited by many to a mare who contrived to produce a champion sprinter by a stallion meanwhile exported to South Korea.    Remember that Oxbow's close relative Paynter, retired in the same intake, is operating at almost double the strike-rate in terms of black-type winners and performers. Hot Rod Charlie, then, unmistakably finds his sire at a crossroads.

Now it may be that he has never really had much quality to back up the quantity. Yes, Calumet is throwing volume across the board–an approach, in 2019, that restored the farm as leading breeder by prizemoney for the first time since 1961, and its racetrack division (intended to develop families and support the breeding program) to second in the owners' table. But Oxbow's covering history suggests that he can't ever have had much outside support from mares that might have brought him a little commercial zip.

That's hardly surprising, in that he wasn't really priced to invite them. For if there has been one aspect of Calumet's roster that made even its admirers a little uncomfortable, it was a pricing structure that set a challenging premium on assets culpably under-rated by the marketplace. Fair enough: why should Calumet undervalue the breed's family silver just because others do? But that does make it hard to sell to outside clients aspiring to some kind of dividend at auction.

Take a look at the 2018 roster. To be fair, at $25,000 English Channel was becoming as accomplished a stallion as you can find anywhere, at that kind of price, but the puerile treatment of turf horses by the commercial market made him an option principally for end users. Next came Keen Ice, introduced at $20,000. Oxbow was standing at the same fee; Bal a Bali (Brz) and Big Blue Kitten were offered at $15,000; and Red Rocks (Ire) was $10,000.

This spring, however, Calumet joined virtually every other farm in making fee cuts in the pandemic economy. But their action was more decisive than most, and the result was a roster that suddenly looks far more accessible. English Channel, having been elevated to $35,000 as he increasingly stood comparison to Kitten's Joy, was trimmed back to $27,500. Keen Ice was cut from $20,000 to $9,500; as a relative newcomer, Ransom The Moon was pegged at $7,500, but rookie Bravazo was pitched into play at just $6,000; Bal a Bali was slashed from $15,000 to $5,000; and Big Blue Kitten, from $10,000 to $5,000. And Oxbow, freshly decorated by a GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up, was now trading at $7,500.

There's a timeless message on a splendid clocktower recently added to one of the colleges at Oxford University. On one side are carved the words: “It's later than you think.” On the next you read: “…but it's never too late.” That's just about where Oxbow stands now.

It would be a pity for this conduit of such good blood to dry up altogether. Paynter, as mentioned, is reiterating the potency of their family–he's out of another of Tiznow's unraced sisters–while their late sire Awesome Again has bequeathed a dynamism on dirt (seen at its mightiest in Ghostzapper) that has made him the vital linchpin of the Deputy Minister sire-line. That's especially comforting, given Deputy Minister's iconic influence not just as a broodmare sire, but also as a sire of broodmare sires. So whatever else Oxbow can still do, some breeders will surely try their luck with his daughters.

Calumet clients, incidentally, can tap into a double dose of Deputy Minister through Keen Ice. He's by Curlin (whose damsire is Deputy Minister) out of an Awesome Again mare, and showed the trademark Deputy Minister constitution in earning $3.4 million across four seasons. From an aristocratic family, Keen Ice now looks particularly good value for breeders who might retain a filly. His first juveniles are off the mark already, but we know that they will only get better.

By the same token, Oxbow may himself retain half a chance to claw a way back via the foothold he has found in Hot Rod Charlie. So many of this sire-line's premier achievers, from Knicks Go to Game On Dude, have thrived with maturity that perhaps a few others, among the maturing graduates of those big books, can now follow in Hot Rod Charlie's slipstream.

All in all, then, a Belmont success for either Bourbonic or a son of Oxbow would showcase precisely those speed-carrying, two-turn dirt genes that first exalted Calumet. With a positive test dangling over Medina Spirit (Protonico), many people have this spring been remembering the farm's promoted Derby winner Forward Pass. The disqualification of Dancer's Image that year was far too complex a tale to reprise here, but certainly created unease about the possibility of a Triple Crown falling into the lap of Forward Pass.

In 2021, however, the Belmont could help everyone recognize the service Calumet is offering a sport facing a painful battle with so many corner-cutting practices. Oxbow is the first Preakness winner to stand there since Forward Pass. And whether or not he can renew his career with Hot Rod Charlie, or Bourbonic ends up joining the likes of Keen Ice in fighting the good fight, Calumet is sketching out a new chapter, not just in its own long history but in that of the whole industry.

Kelley and his team have grasped that soundness and durability, backed up by deep pedigrees, can actually make a precarious business more sustainable. Someday, as such, breeding a horse for the sales ring might even become the same as breeding a horse for the racetrack. It's a long haul, for sure. But where better to start than a race like the Belmont?

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