1) Mo Donegal (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)
O-Donegal Racing & Repole Stable. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 yrl '20 KEESEP.
You could argue that Mo Donegal lost the GI Kentucky Derby at the post draw after getting stuck with the dreaded rail gate. But his fifth-place effort, beaten 5 3/4 lengths in a stretch finish that featured the 1-2-3 horses all running full-tilt to the wire, is actually quite a bit better than it appears on paper. This $250,000 KEESEP son of Uncle Mo was too patiently handled by Irad Ortiz, Jr., who didn't ask this athletic colt for his best run until 2 1/2 furlongs out, and Mo then had to float 12 wide off the turn to find clear passage. But he still uncorked with his characteristic acceleration inside the eighth pole, and that type of late-race torque has been evident throughout Mo's career. This colt simply keeps gaining ground in deep stretch, even when the final furlongs are quick, and his company lines are far more robust than any of his Belmont S. foes. Don't be tempted to stamp him as strictly an off-the-tailgate type, because Mo is agile and nimble enough to take up the running from a sweet stalking spot in an eight-horse field where he's not as likely to meet up with the trip trouble that he often encounters.

2) We the People (c, Constitution–Letchworth, by Tiznow)
O-Winstar Farm, LLC, Bobby Flay, CMNWLTH, & Siena Farm, LLC.
B-Henley Farms Inc (KY). T-R Brisset. Sales History: $110k wnlg '19 KEENOV, $220k yrl '20 KEESEP, $230k 2yo FTFMAR.
We the People possesses both a very high cruising gear and a reputation for being difficult to handle. His brief past performance block features a pair of open-length wins at Oaklawn and a blowout, 10 1/4-length, tour-de-force romp in the GII Peter Pan S. four weeks ago (103 Beyer Speed Figure). But sandwiched in between was a hot-and-bothered effort in the weak GI Arkansas Derby in which this Constitution colt couldn't make the lead, then got hooked wide around both turns, beating only two horses. Which We the People will show up as the morning-line fave for the third leg of the Triple Crown? Sure, he's won with authority over Belmont's main track. But that was a sealed, post-rain surface rated “good,” and the field contained only one horse who had ever won a stakes (a minor one at that). Still, the raw power of that victory will be enough to sway pari-mutuel supporters to this colt's side. We the People was always in control in the Peter Pan, and it's hard to shake the visual of him turning for home under a hand ride from Flavien Prat while everyone else in his widening wake was desperately whipping and driving. He also had a nice spurt of extra acceleration in upper stretch-the kind of move where Prat was probably just gauging what was under the hood for future reference.

3) Rich Strike (c, Keen Ice–Gold Strike, by Smart Strike)
O-RED TR-Racing, LLC. B-Calumet Farm (KY). T-Eric Reed.
When a horse wins a race at 80-1 odds, you can usually point to evidence that the favorites didn't fire, the pace blew up, or a number of logical contenders ran into trip trouble. None of those things happened in the Derby. Sonny Leon sliced and diced his way to a clear inside path through the far turn, and Rich Strike did the rest, taking aim with purpose and reeling in two favorites who weren't quitting. Is the effort replicable? This connections of this former $30,000 maiden-claiming son of Keen Ice defied convention and skipped the GI Preakness S. with the aim of having a tighter fighter at 12 furlongs, a distance trainer Eric Reed believes is within this colt's scope. His 101 Beyer in Louisville represents a 17-point jump off his best career effort, and Rich Strike is going to have to come up with a similar or better fig if he is to be draped in a blanket of white carnations.

Rich Strike poses for every photo before Saturday's Belmont Stakes. | Sarah Andrew

But you have to wonder if he's going to be tactically forced out of his sweet spot, because dropping far behind the field against this crew is likely going to leave him too much work to do.

Then again, this is a colt who wasn't too far off the action going a one-turn a mile at Churchill at age two (a 17 1/4-length upset), so maybe he's a touch more versatile than critics give him credit for. A bigger concern might be Leon's inexperience riding over Belmont's vast, sweeping main-track configuration, which has been known to stymie riders unfamiliar with its 1 1/2-miles circumference. Leon is named to ride in only one race (on the grass) at Belmont on Friday, then will have what will seem like an interminably long wait on Saturday (7 1/2 hours) between his only main-track mounts in the opener and in the Belmont S. itself.

4) Barber Road (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image)
O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY).
T-John Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wnlg '19 KEENOV.
Despite having to rally from last and getting parked in the 14 path turning for home, this Race Day gray ($15,000 KEENOV) put in a fairly decent sustained run over the final three furlongs of the Derby. Barber Road gets a jockey change to Joel Rosario for the Belmont, and will race without blinkers for the first time since his career debut at Colonial Downs last August. He's winless since Nov. 10, but has amassed a bankroll north of $650,000 by chipping away with minor awards in graded stakes. Longer distances certainly appear within the scope of his pedigree. His paternal grandsire is Tapit, the sire of four Belmont S. winners, and damsire Southern Image won two Grade I routes at Triple Crown distances in 2004 (the Santa Anita H. and the Pimlico Special). But the big question for Barber Road isn't staying power-it's whether he's fast enough. His best Beyer tops out at 94, seven points below the par for this race.

5) Nest (f, Curlin–Marion Ravenwood, by A.P. Indy). O-Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, & Michael House.
B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 yrl '20 KEESEP.
Nest's family tree is replete with distance-centric influences. Her sire, Curlin, lost the 2007 Belmont by a head, barely coming up short behind the gallant filly Rags to Riches (who was trained by Nest's trainer, Todd Pletcher). Nest's damsire, A.P. Indy, won the '92 Belmont. This filly is also a full sister to Idol, last year's winner of the Santa Anita H. She was most recently a grinding second in the GI Kentucky Oaks, incrementally gaining on the winner, and before that, she popped for an 8 1/4-length victory in the GI Ashland S. in April. That score was notable for a prolonged, 4 1/2-furlong bid over Keeneland's short-stretch configuration in which Nest drove past the front four leaders with authority midway on the far turn. Jose Ortiz picks up the mount for the first time, as his brother, Irad, sticks with Nest's uncoupled stablemate, Mo Donegal.

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Mo Donegal, a $250,000 Keeneland September yearling purchase, captured Aqueduct's GII Remsen S. over future GI Toyota Blue Grass winner Zandon (Upstart). Third in the Feb. 5 GIII Holy Bull S. behind White Abarrio (Race Day) and Simplification (Not This Time), he returned to New York Apr. 9 for the Wood Memorial S., rallying over a speed-favoring track to prevail by a head over Early Voting (Gun Runner).

The Todd Pletcher trainee has won three of five starts for earnings of $621,800. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be in the saddle on Derby day.

“I am excited to be part of Mo Donegal with Jerry Crawford and the partners of Donegal Racing,” Repole said. “In my 15 years of racing, this will be the first time I am partners with someone who has a bigger entourage than my own. While having some great conversations with Jerry, this partnership made so much sense for Repole Stable. Being trained by Todd Pletcher, being ridden by Irad Ortiz and most special, being a son of my sire Uncle Mo. As a racing fan, I have been incredibly impressed by Mo Donegal, and I am so excited to watch him and his brilliance as an owner.”

Mike Repole is also a partner on top GI Longines Kentucky Oaks contender, and Mo Donegal's stablemate, Nest (Curlin).

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“That is a typical Japanese training regimen,” said Japan-based representative for the Kentucky Derby Kate Hunter. “Masa was very pleased with the work. He said Crown Pride moves well over the surface with no extra effort.”

Crown Pride's previous works here were six furlongs in 1:18.60 Apr. 16, a half-mile in :49.80 Apr. 19 and a half-mile in :49.20  Apr. 24. He is scheduled to work again Sunday.

Trainer Koichi Shintani is scheduled to arrive in Louisville Sunday night and will be in attendance at the post position draw Monday afternoon. Jockey Christophe Lemaire is scheduled to arrive in Louisville on Monday.

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Who run the world? Girls.
Letruska joined elite, and truly rarified air with her successful defense of her GI Apple Blossom title over another Apple Blossom winner in Ce Ce. Only three other mares have accomplished the feat of multiple wins in Oaklawn's signature event for dirt distaffers dating back to 1973, and their names grace the walls in the Hall of Fame: Paseana (Arg), Azeri, and Zenyatta.

Royal Ascot bound?
The former Wesley Ward-trained No Nay Never had two TDN Rising Stars, Ballydoyle's Deneuve (filly) and Aesop's Fables (colt), over the span of three days in Ireland. That also makes it five winners from seven juvenile runners for Mr. O'Brien this season. Roll on Ascot…

History in the making?
This year we have not one, not two, but seven stallions with the potential to pull off a Derby-Oaks sire double, something that hasn't been done since Native Dancer sired the winners of both races 56 years ago. In the 147 years of Derby-Oaks history, the feat has been accomplished exactly four times.

Busy, busy…
Chad Schumer was the sale's top buyer at OBS last week, taking home 15 horses for $3.03-million. They ranged from a $30,000 Kantharos colt (Hip 1192) to a $800,000 Justify filly (Hip 1139).

McCraken throws a firecracker…
Airdrie Stud stallions just keep rolling out the winners as this freshman sire claimed his first starter and winner at the ever-competitive Keeneland Spring meet. Crackalacking was a modestly sold runner -$15,000 at KEEJAN and $20,000 KEESEP last year- who blitzed the field by five lengths.

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Upstart, who stands at Airdrie Stud in Midway, Kentucky, is a graded stakes-winner who earned $1.7 million. Other notable progeny includes 'TDN Rising Star' Green Up, a 3-year-old filly with two wins and a second in three career starts, including a four length allowance victory at Gulfstream Apr. 21; MGISP and 'TDN Rising Star' Reinvestment Risk, a 4-year-old colt who was second in the recent GI Carter H.; and Masqueparade, winner of the 2021 GIII Ohio Derby.

“What Upstart is doing right now is really pretty incredible,” Airdrie Stud Vice President Bret Jones said. “Zandon and Kathleen O. are the headliners, but there's so much depth in each of those first two crops. Reinvestment Risk, Green Up and Masqueparade all look poised for breakout seasons, and Upstart's 2-year-olds have averaged over $300,000 at the juvenile sales this year. He throws beautiful sales horses that can handle their early training and get better with racing. And he's shown the ability to sire not only quality horses, but elite horses. He's on that climb right now that the really top sires all make.”

The winning bidder will have the right to offer to purchase the share for the hammer price subject to a 24-hour post-auction inspection period during which the winning bidder may review all applicable documentation. The winning bidder may only purchase the share upon satisfactory review by the parties and the satisfaction or waiver of any applicable rights of first refusal or other restrictions under the syndicate agreement. Interested parties should contact Bret Jones or Ben Henley at Airdrie Stud at (859) 873-7270 for additional information regarding the share, or to inspect the stallion.

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But that's actually how our way of life-inherently so frivolous, just a herd of ponies running round in circles-connects us with the fundamentals of our place on this planet. To some among the lucky few to have sieved a horse all the way down from a foal crop of 20,000 into those 20 coveted gates at Churchill, the GI Kentucky Derby will unfold in conformity to some divine dispensation largely unreadable by us mortals. For others, no doubt, it will merely condense the random forces that determine where we finish up in the roulette wheel of life.

To be fair, the Derby gods are pretty flexible about these things. Setting any spiritual convictions to one side, you might say that they serve as shorthand for either “fate” or “destiny”. Fate implies that things are going to happen the way they're going to happen, and that there's no point trying to rationalize why. Destiny, in contrast, might suggest that our fortunes-while indeed inexorable-obey some kind of coherent narrative.

(To listen to this article as a podcast, click the arrow below.)

So which side are you on? If you're not quite sure, then ask the same question another way. After what happened to Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow), are you now looking to those Derby gods to clear a path for Epicenter (Not This Time)?

Because if you were directing our little world from on high, right now you would surely be feeling pretty disgusted with yourself. Of all horses, you chose Midnight Bourbon!

His loss was attributed to some out-of-the-blue “gastrointestinal event”. Well, if even those of us who admired him from afar felt some empathetic nausea, on hearing the news, how must it feel for those closest to a creature that had, until that moment, appeared the very incarnation of physical majesty in the Thoroughbred?

Because if we were in the business of perceiving some latent pattern in the chaos around us, then we would have to discern some almost witting purpose in the alacrity with which Midnight Bourbon salvaged our community, at an especially vulnerable moment, from fresh disaster.

Moreover in that split second when he somehow retrieved his balance in the GI Haskell S. roughhouse last summer, Midnight Bourbon exhibited a blend of athleticism and courage, exceptional genetic attributes of body and soul, that promised a further redemption. And that was to the sire-line extending through Tiznow to Man o' War and ultimately the Godolphin Arabian.

Now, sadly, that heritage has again been rendered precarious. We have lost something precious, equally, in Midnight Bourbon's maternal line: his mother was bred from a mare who duplicated the 29-for-45 Bayou legend Monique Rene not only as her own second dam, but also as that of her sire Yes It's True.

Not too many breeders would have doubled down there, and fewer yet would have combined the result with Tiznow, himself son of the Cinderella blue hen Cee's Song. But the result was such a physical paragon that he raised $575,000 as a yearling and then earned nomination at least as Best Supporting Actor in the sophomore crop.

Midnight Bourbon (inside) misses Travers victory by a neck | Credit: Sarah Andrew

In running Essential Quality (Tapit) to a neck in their duel for the GI Travers S., Midnight Bourbon confirmed himself the perfect foil to a nearly robotic rival. Their respective win ratios could scarcely have been in starker contrast: that day Essential Quality went to eight-for-nine, while Midnight Bourbon has now exited with just two wins from 16 starts. Yet he yielded little to his rival, in terms of merit or consistency.

Instead he volunteered himself as a champion for those of us uncomfortable with the exorbitant value our industry places on first place, distilled in the bitter axiom “second sucks”. There's something so engaging, romantic almost, about a horse whose strivings tend to be as unavailing as they are unmistakably ardent.

That's why Midnight Bourbon will have been especially cherished by anyone who responds to sport as a mirror to life; and why any such person will be imploring Epicenter, representing the same owner and trainer, to meet his cue at Churchill.

Not because winning the Derby would serve as any kind of salve to their present pain, even for a trainer whose resume contains so few other omissions. No horseman would even begin to understand the notion that there might be any kind of equivalence between this disaster and any such triumph-other, that is, than as the famous “twin impostors” of Kipling's poem.

And that's the point really. The Derby gods can't actually redress what happened on their home patch this week. All they can do is make us shake our heads and thank the Thoroughbred, not for piecing together a puzzle we can never solve, but just for taking us closer-through all the joys and sufferings they bring us-to the mystery and wonder of life.

A bit like, say, when you sit out on the deck at Saratoga on a sultry summer night and gaze at the stars as you tinkle the ice in your midnight bourbon. Yes, even his name was perfect. Here was a horse that reminded us of the shared margin between grandeur and spirit in the elite racehorse, and rebuked our puerile obsession with first place.

How heartbreaking, that this living hymn to vitality should have been so abruptly, so cruelly, reduced to the most harrowing indignities of mortality. Midnight Bourbon has been denied the legacy he deserved, in the breed itself, and must make do with a less tangible immortality in our memories and hearts.

These, too, will be finite. In the meantime, however, let's raise a midnight toast to the lesson he bequeaths. For while those racing gods may not be interested in what horsemen may or may not “deserve”, here was a horse that at least showed us what it is to be worthy.

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But Zedan doesn't see it that way.

“I go into the Kentucky Derby with absolutely no ill feelings toward anyone,” Zedan said. “I carry no grudges. I just keep walking, keep going. The due process is in process and I firmly believe that when it comes to our case we will have a satisfactory ending to to the saga. Absolutely, there will be no sense of redemption or wanting to get even with anybody.”

Imagine, though, a scenario where Zedan accepts a trophy from his adversaries, like Churchill Downs Inc. CEO Bill Carstanjen. Zedan says that won't be a problem.

“I haven't sued Churchill Downs,” he said. “I have absolutely no ill feelings toward anybody. The racing commission made their decision, which I have the right to disagree with and, according to the law, I have the right to appeal. Right now we are in the appeals process. The most civilized thing to do when it comes to the dispute is to appeal to the right jurisdictions and that's what we are doing.”

As recently as the beginning of March it didn't appear that Zedan had a horse for this year's Derby. Taiba sold for $1.7 million as a 2-year-old at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream same, but had a few minor issues that prevented him from racing as a 2-year-old. Taiba didn't make his debut until March 5 when he ran away from his competitors to win a six-furlong Santa Anita maiden by 7 ½ lengths, earning a 103 Beyer figure.

After Taiba's debut, Baffert was forced to accept a 90-day suspension handed down by the Kentucky Racing Commission for the betamethasone positive and the colt was turned over to trainer Tim Yakteen

His debut was a promising performance, but conventional wisdom suggested that it was a matter of too little, too late when it came to the Derby. At least that's what Yakteen and Zedan's bloodstock advisor Gary Young told the owner. They were against running in the Santa Anita Derby.

“They wanted to wait things out and then target the Lexington,” Zedan said. “I had to overrule everybody. I told them that our entire program was built around trying to win the Kentucky Derby. I didn't want to go to bed at night knowing that we didn't give it our best chance. I thought we had to give him a shot. Sometimes talent compensates for experience and he showed that.”

It was a huge test, and one he passed with surprising ease.

Facing off against GII San Felipe S. winner Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) and stablemate and GIII Robert B. Lewis S. winner Messier, Taiba appeared to have his hands full and was sent off at 4-1. With Mike Smith replacing John Velazquez, who stuck with Messier, Taiba got past Messier inside the final furlong and drew clear to win by 2 1/4 lengths.

“Considering everything, it was a real relief that we pulled this off,” Zedan said. “Everyone on the team was ecstatic.”

The Santa Anita Derby was far from an easy spot, but Zedan knows that the Kentucky Derby will be much tougher.

“There are so many more moving targets now,” he said. “You have the post position draw to worry about, the kickback, the traveling, a 20-horse field and not a five or six-horse field. I am managing expectations. We're up against tremendous competition. It is a good crop. There are three or four horses that come to mind that are very good horses, very fast horses and horses that stay. It is anyone's race.”

The Medina Spirit saga turned tragic in December when the horse died of an apparent heart attack after a workout at Santa Anita. For Zedan, the experience has been more bitter than sweet. But he came to understand that his best option was to simply move on.

“It's been a roller coaster ride over the last year,” he said. “In one year, I've seen all the ups and downs of the sport. It sounds cliche, but what doesn't break you makes you stronger.”

Of course, having a horse like Taiba makes the process easier. He will be attempting to become the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby in his third start since Leonatus did it way back in 1883. It won't be easy, but he has given Zedan what once seemed highly unlikely–a second chance.

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